GarryB wrote:I don't disagree, what I am saying is that he is getting rid of his problem by taking advantage of the problems in Syria... it is his action that got the Americans to leave so first of all lets say thank you to him for that service because as long as the oil was pumping the Americans were going to be staying.
Should the USSR also have told thank you to Nazi Germany after it helped the USSR in 1939 take back territories lost to Poland in 1920?
Well it probably did tell it thank you. We all know how that went.
I don't argue the need for concessions on some points to satisfy Turkish security concerns, but there are red lines. Idlib and N. Aleppo are less a priority than the territories that Erdogan has just seized and is bartering on.
His dealing with the problem basically shifts the issue from his ledger sheet to Assads. But then it is inside Syrian territorial borders so it was always going to be his problem ultimately unless he ended up like Gadaffi.
Well Putin has apparently just demonstrated that Assad is a nobody, given that 2 outside powers are making deals on matters of Syrian sovereignty, the negotiations went on for 6 hours instead of 3, which might suggest that the positions didn't match and Russia ended up retreating from its original position.
There was a statement by the Russian MFA 2 days prior that Turkey should re-open its embassy in Damascus and deal with security agreements with Assad directly. That seemed like a wise move, shame it wasn't employed. Perhaps Erdogan told Putin to cut the crap, and Putin went along with it and decided to carve up a foreign country personally after all.
Turkey was only part of the international team that created this monster... personally I would say give these bastards fake IDs and fake green cards and see if you can send them to the US where they can continue their jihad.
They're the only part of that international team that are still in Syria and still matter.
The rest have already fucked off with nothing. So should Turkey.
But does he... that is what I am saying... the invasion of Syria is not about expanding Turkey or creating a new ottoman empire... it reminds me of all the shit they say about Putin wanting to recreate the Soviet union and invade Europe... it is just unfounded bullshit.
Ultimately these people should be sent either to Saudi Arabia... their ideal already made islamic republic, or they could go to the US which can be considered a potential islamic republic... already half way there.... a sort of fixer upper.
Yeah I know, it's a very Turkish negotiation tactic.
Make some outrageous statements, terrorize everyone for a while, and then negotiate down for what you really want.
But still, you let them off the hook - and they'll go as far as they can, if only to secure future leverage. Just like they had no problems supporting ISIS with transit and trade until it became too problematic for them.
That Erdogan is an idealogue and has his own ambitions in the Muslim world though is beyond debate.
Just yesterday India cancelled a +$3 billion military naval deal for Turkish corvettes or some such with Turkey, because Turkey decided to meddle a bit in Kashmir.
Can you imagine Putin jeapordizing such arms deals for some ideological aims half the world away?
Without that Turkish incursion and with US troops still present that would not have been an option...
They would have had to leave sooner or later. They were under Turkish pressure. Russia should have made a deal with America for military passage to take up positions. Then the Americans can steadily withdraw. Trump doesn't look like a clown, and Russia/SAA gets to in before any Islamist occupation occurs. And since its Syrian territory controlled by the Syrian Army; Erdo would have a lot less leverage to do anything.
Well Russia made Trump look like a clown, but it also ended up betraying the people of Syria itself. I doubt the SAA are too happy with this deal either, nor Assad.
But to what end... filling it up with the dregs as you say is concentrating his problems outside of Turkish territory. I doubt he will lift a finger to support these people when Assad moves to assert his authority over that piece of Syrian territory.
They have Turkish observation posts all over the place, serving as redoubts. All heavily fortified rebel lines, supplied with intel, arms, whatever else.
As to what end - irrelevant. Those are Turkish-sponsored rebel areas and they have to go.
He has basically set them up for a fall... they will end up in Syrian jails and not Turkish refugee camps.
What does it matter to Syria what he set them up for or why he did it?
Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:31 pm; edited 7 times in total