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    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else.

    Poll

    Will the relationship continue to go downhill, or blow over within a year or so?

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    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Bar_left0%The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Bar_right [0%] 
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    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Bar_left75%The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Bar_right [75%] 
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    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Bar_left25%The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Bar_right [25%] 

    Total Votes: 8
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    ATLASCUB

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    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Empty The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else.

    Post  ATLASCUB on Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:30 pm

    After much ado about the ultimatum - it's finally official, and in paper.

    Below is the official letter sent to the Turkish MoD, from Patrick M. Shanahan, current Secretary of Defense of the United States.

    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fthe-drive-cms-content-staging%2Fmessage-editor%252F1559936023308-letter-1.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&ixlib=js-1.2

    Threats enumerated:

    1. Kicked out of the F-35 program completely (Turkish F-35 pilot students currently in the U.S to be kicked out, Turkey to be denied the purchase of the aircraft, and the manufacturing of parts as part of its supply chain). Didn't Turkey invest millions into this already? ohh boy...

    2. CAATSA sanctions (have bipartisan support should Turkey receive the S-400). This might range from blacklisting Turkish defense companies (to kill any export market) to fines (usually in the low billions).

    3. "Hinder" Turkish's participation and cooperation within NATO (vague for effect).  My guess is more like blacklisted within the organization itself at least. Wonder how that'll leave Incirlik etc. Although Turkey is already sort of blacklisted within NATO.

    4. Hinder Turkey's development goals (that wasn't just mentioned for flowery text - a clear threat of economic war - probably target the lira hard). They go on to explicitly state that the purchase of the S-400 will cause the loss of jobs, GDP (contraction), and trade (closed markets).

    That's not to mention the shenanigans going on at Turkey's border with the YPG and the full hybrid war toolkit at the U.S disposal. Plus a full pivot towards Greece which has been an ongoing dance for quite some time now. The Greek Defense Minister is the U.S as we report this (timing is not "coincidence"). https://dod.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/Videos/?videoid=687414

    Is this a sign of the beginning of a real break up or will the relationship endure?

    Is the trouble worth it for Turkey? or is Erdogan rolling the dice? Unsure whether it's worth it and thus "time will tell"?

    Will Turkey be the trial run for CAATSA sanctions implementation?

    Will the U.S go through with even half of its threats?


    Last edited by ATLASCUB on Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:54 pm; edited 3 times in total
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:43 pm

    Turkey should hurry up buying more S-400, sukhois and pantsirs.

    This is not an ultimatum, this is a declaration of war.

    The very next day when S-400 come in Turkey, CNN will be talking about some hiden nuclear program in cooperation with Iran and about freedom in Turkey ...

    You can add "war" in your poll as an option.
    magnumcromagnon
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Jun 08, 2019 2:45 pm

    ATLASCUB wrote:After much ado about the ultimatum - it's finally official, and in paper.

    Below is the official letter sent to the Turkish MoD, from Patrick M. Shanahan, current Secretary of Defense of the United States.

    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fthe-drive-cms-content-staging%2Fmessage-editor%252F1559936023308-letter-1.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&ixlib=js-1.2

    Threats enumerated:

    1. Kicked out of the F-35 program completely (Turkish F-35 pilot students currently in the U.S to be kicked out, Turkey to be denied the purchase of the aircraft, and the manufacturing of parts as part of its supply chain). Didn't Turkey invest millions into this already? ohh boy...

    2. CAATSA sanctions (have bipartisan support should Turkey receive the S-400). This might range from blacklisting Turkish defense companies (to kill any export market) to fines (usually in the low billions).

    3. "Hinder" Turkish's participation and cooperation within NATO (vague for effect).  My guess is more like blacklisted within the organization itself at least. Wonder how that'll leave Incirlik etc. Although Turkey is already sort of blacklisted within NATO.

    4. Hinder Turkey's development goals (that wasn't just mentioned for flowery text - a clear threat of economic war - probably target the lira hard). They go on to explicitly state that the purchase of the S-400 will cause the loss of jobs, GDP (contraction), and trade (closed markets).

    That's not to mention the shenanigans going on at Turkey's border with the YPG and the full hybrid war toolkit at the U.S disposal. Plus a full pivot towards Greece which has been an ongoing dance for quite some time now. The Greek Defense Minister is the U.S as we report this (timing is not "coincidence"). https://dod.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/Videos/?videoid=687414

    Is this a sign of the beginning of a real break up or will the relationship endure?

    Is the trouble worth it for Turkey? or is Erdogan rolling the dice? Unsure whether it's worth it and thus "time will tell"?

    Will Turkey be the trial run for CAATSA sanctions implementation?

    Will the U.S go through with even half of its threats?

    The thing is that they tried to topple the govt. in a regime change coup, that's when the relations with them (USA) were relatively good. If they'll attempt regime change when you listen and follow their orders, then you might as well go their own independent path. If they push too hard, the Turks could consistently block access to the Bosporus & the Dardanelles...such an act would cause shockwaves...if they sign a new Black Sea Treaty of defense on top of the current one, which mires certain 'ambitions' in the Black Sea, the shockwaves could hit 10 on the Richter scale.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:44 pm

    The thing is that they tried to topple the govt. in a regime change coup, that's when the relations with them (USA) were relatively good. If they'll attempt regime change when you listen and follow their orders, then you might as well go their own independent path. If they push too hard, the Turks could consistently block access to the Bosporus & the Dardanelles...such an act would cause shockwaves...if they sign a new Black Sea Treaty of defense on top of the current one, which mires certain 'ambitions' in the Black Sea, the shockwaves could hit 10 on the Richter scale.

    They already tried a coup. Since that day Trukey/US relation is going down the toilets.

    As time passes, it's only getting worse and worse.

    S-400 buy is a clear sign that they don't trust US anymore and are preparing an attack against them be it diplomatic or economic or even military. That will happen and they very well know that.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:22 am

    Perhaps there has been a change in the English dictionary and diplomacy and negotiations have been removed so the only interaction between supposed allies is threats and ultimatums... the US is using them against everyone including countries it calls allies and the EU is too against soon to be former members...

    Sometimes it works because the threats push all the right buttons, but it could just as easily totally backfire and thrust your former friends and allies out into the cold where to survive they will need to huddle close to the other countries out there... ie your real and perceived opponents... problem is that if you keep doing it all the smart independently thinking countries will be on the other side of your big fence and you will be stuck with all the stupid yes men countries who don't actually have much of a spine and do what you tell them because they are weak.

    How will that turn out do you think?
    Airman
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    Post  Airman on Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:03 am

    USA wants to by pass Russian gas by using gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. They want to build pipe line, which will transport gas from Mediterranean to Europe through Greece and so Europe won't need to buy gas from Russia. It will also affect the TurkStream, which will transport gas from Russia to Europe through Turkey. That's why Turkey needs S400 as soon as possible to protect its own gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean.

    If Russia doesn't want to lose this energy war, They should start to research gas fields in Syrian Exclusive Economic Zone by using its own vessels. Russian pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean might be helpful for Turkey.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:10 am

    Airman wrote:USA wants to by pass Russian gas by using gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. They want to build pipe line, which will transport gas from Mediterranean to Europe through Greece and so Europe won't need to buy gas from Russia. It will also affect the TurkStream, which will transport gas from Russia to Europe through Turkey. That's why Turkey needs S400 as soon as possible to protect its own gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean.

    If Russia doesn't want to lose this energy war, They should start to research gas fields in Syrian Exclusive Economic Zone by using its own vessels. Russian pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean might be helpful for Turkey.
    There are no significant legal Turkish gas fields in the eastern Med, the Levant field is too far south. Turkey is claiming, on behalf of Norther Cyprus, parts of Southern Cyprus's area.

    Whilst the 'defend against possible US/NATO aggression' role of the S-400 is clear, extending it to gas field left protection might be a step too far.
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    ATLASCUB

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    Post  ATLASCUB on Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:58 pm

    You don't need an S-400 for that. You need a competent surface fleet of frigates (Turkey has the numbers - quality is the question) and a decent sub force. 4-5 kilos in such a jam-packed area are more than enough - if Turkey had them
    to balance out the Israeli's. Turkey's got a bunch of Type 209's.... I wouldn't trust them as far as I could throw them vs. a competent force. As a force multiplier next to the Kilos they're fine tho...

    You also need about 60 Su-35s to dash any hope of something funny going on in the air. F-16s are bottom of the barrel 4th-gen aircraft. It's sufficient for the Greeks, but definitely not against the Israeli's with F-15s. F-35 are standoff AIM-120 trucks just like the F-16s (F-35s don't change anything in the area). Ohh and Yes, beg the Russians to give you non-export ver. of missiles and radars for the Su-35s. Otherwise the Su-35s will be somewhat handicapped.

    Americans won't do anything to Turkey. The only ones with a high dose of hubris that may attempt something funny like that are the Israeli's with their dolphins and air force. The Greeks don't matter much - easily contained and matched in a shooting duel if they try the Turks. Turks are serious about those fields... they've been churning alarms and propaganda on the subject for quite a while now. They don't want to be left out as the carving takes place.

    No one has played the Lebanon card - yet.
    Airman
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    Post  Airman on Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:50 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Airman wrote:USA wants to by pass Russian gas by using gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. They want to build pipe line, which will transport gas from Mediterranean to Europe through Greece and so Europe won't need to buy gas from Russia. It will also affect the TurkStream, which will transport gas from Russia to Europe through Turkey. That's why Turkey needs S400 as soon as possible to protect its own gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean.

    If Russia doesn't want to lose this energy war, They should start to research gas fields in Syrian Exclusive Economic Zone by using its own vessels. Russian pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean might be helpful for Turkey.
    There are no significant legal Turkish gas fields in the eastern Med, the Levant field is too far south. Turkey is claiming, on behalf of Norther Cyprus, parts of Southern Cyprus's area.

    Whilst the 'defend against possible US/NATO aggression' role of the S-400 is clear, extending it to gas field left protection might be a step too far.

    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Image

    Turkey is searching for natural gas fields in its own Exclusive Economic Zone.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:15 pm

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Syrian_MC/status/1149628891373301760

    The S-400 is in Turkey. US threats didn't work.
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    Post  Airman on Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:36 pm

    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Thumbs_b2_fca622081456bbd26138a0af9baa2b99

    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Thumbs_b2_da658fa6784c07c540ffde577372a2fe

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    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Thumbs_b2_1a69353bb793e5882487537a37328a40

    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Thumbs_b2_46023911798d58228ae8a7e0fe091448

    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Thumbs_b2_9b67c2aab51a2c1053a095447230cceb

    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Thumbs_b2_9fa5871080ac619cebf696595fe8cb8c

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    The Ultimatum is Real! Turkey on notice to drop the S-400 deal or else. Thumbs_b2_6a783ed97394d83a430c9527a72c46a0

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    ATLASCUB

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    Post  ATLASCUB on Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:21 pm

    2 TELs it seems.
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    Post  Airman on Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:54 pm

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    Post  GarryB on Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:11 am

    That feeling at Christmas time when you unwrap the huge boxes hoping for a bike and finding a bicycle pump and a bell and a helmet... they spent too much money to not buy you a bike but they want to tease you... the bike is probably out in the shed but you have to wait till they are ready...
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    Post  ATLASCUB on Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:57 am

    You have to at least give it to the Turks on this.

    This has been made into the greatest show on Earth - at least for today. Everyone with even a casual curiosity of world politics knows what's happening. The Great Game in the social media age.

    Can't buy that sort of exposure if you're Almaz-Antey.

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