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    Iraq internal situation & politics

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    sheytanelkebir

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    Post  sheytanelkebir on Mon Nov 23, 2015 11:57 am

    the war in iraq is a 3-way conflict between sunnis (predominantly arab), kurds and shias. Last year when the sunni arabs rose up to kick out the shia iraqi government, the sunni arab and kurdish soldiers in northern iraq all "switched sides" in unison and whilst ISIS expanded (using the "former" iraqi soldiers) ... the kurds also expanded... it was the "ribentropp-molotov" agreement between kurds and sunni-arabs to "carve out" their states and achieve territorial maximalism for both sides.

    That "kicked off" conveniently when the final results of the Iraqi National Elections were released by the Electoral Commission which showed Nuri Al Maliki as having the largest number of seats... It meant that the sunni and kurdish parties who didn't want him in for another term put into action their "plan B" and tried to overthrow the regime in Baghdad.

    What happened then...

    instead of the "tribal revolutionaries" (isis in disguise as it was then) taking Baghdad and overthrowing the regime there... the shia clergy (sistani) put out a fatwa to raise a new shia army... and that's how the "popular mobilisation force" came about out of the blue, made up of former shia-militias as well as ordinary civilians joining up. That stopped the "tribal revolutionaries" and "kurds" in their step just on the western outskirts of Baghdad near Abu Ghraib...

    and since last october the popular mobilisation has become the backbone of "iraq" forces... and spawned loyal sunni arab units as well as christian and yazidi and shabaki units.

    A "showdown" with the Kurds was inevitable as now its jockeying for territory... like I wrote... there are three warring parties. always understand and view the conflict from that perspective in order to have a clear understanding of what's happening there. Attempting to view the conflict as a "two actor" war would inevitably confuse matters and throw up many many contradictions. But viewed as a natural three way war its pretty clear.
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    Post  George1 on Mon Nov 23, 2015 12:03 pm

    sheytanelkebir wrote:the war in iraq is a 3-way conflict between sunnis (predominantly arab), kurds and shias. Last year when the sunni arabs rose up to kick out the shia iraqi government, the sunni arab and kurdish soldiers in northern iraq all "switched sides" in unison and whilst ISIS expanded (using the "former" iraqi soldiers) ... the kurds also expanded... it was the "ribentropp-molotov" agreement between kurds and sunni-arabs to "carve out" their states and achieve territorial maximalism for both sides.

    That "kicked off" conveniently when the final results of the Iraqi National Elections were released by the Electoral Commission which showed Nuri Al Maliki as having the largest number of seats... It meant that the sunni and kurdish parties who didn't want him in for another term put into action their "plan B" and tried to overthrow the regime in Baghdad.

    What happened then...

    instead of the "tribal revolutionaries" (isis in disguise as it was then) taking Baghdad and overthrowing the regime there... the shia clergy (sistani) put out a fatwa to raise a new shia army... and that's how the "popular mobilisation force" came about out of the blue, made up of former shia-militias as well as ordinary civilians joining up. That stopped the "tribal revolutionaries" and "kurds" in their step just on the western outskirts of Baghdad near Abu Ghraib...

    and since last october the popular mobilisation has become the backbone of "iraq" forces... and spawned loyal sunni arab units as well as christian and yazidi and shabaki units.

    A "showdown" with the Kurds was inevitable as now its jockeying for territory... like I wrote... there are three warring parties. always understand and view the conflict from that perspective in order to have a clear understanding of what's happening there. Attempting to view the conflict as a "two actor" war would inevitably confuse matters and throw up many many contradictions. But viewed as a natural three way war its pretty clear.

    in today context, are there sunnis who fight against Baghdad government separately from ISIS? or all shuni population areas in north have been absorbed by ISIS?
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    sheytanelkebir

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    Post  sheytanelkebir on Mon Nov 23, 2015 12:51 pm

    George1 wrote:
    in today context, are there sunnis who fight against Baghdad government separately from ISIS? or all shuni population areas in north have been absorbed by ISIS?

    there is a sunni group called the "naqshabandis" which is controlled by izzat al duri which is nominally independent of isis and fights against the iraqi government. however they number a few dozen people by now and most have been, ironically, killed by ISIS despite them fighting "jointly" together against Iraq last summer.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Mon Nov 23, 2015 2:19 pm

    sheytanelkebir wrote:the war in iraq is a 3-way conflict between sunnis (predominantly arab), kurds and shias. Last year when the sunni arabs rose up to kick out the shia iraqi government, the sunni arab and kurdish soldiers in northern iraq all "switched sides" in unison and whilst ISIS expanded (using the "former" iraqi soldiers) ... the kurds also expanded... it was the "ribentropp-molotov" agreement between kurds and sunni-arabs to "carve out" their states and achieve territorial maximalism for both sides.

    That "kicked off" conveniently when the final results of the Iraqi National Elections were released by the Electoral Commission which showed Nuri Al Maliki as having the largest number of seats... It meant that the sunni and kurdish parties who didn't want him in for another term put into action their "plan B" and tried to overthrow the regime in Baghdad.

    What happened then...

    instead of the "tribal revolutionaries" (isis in disguise as it was then) taking Baghdad and overthrowing the regime there... the shia clergy (sistani) put out a fatwa to raise a new shia army... and that's how the "popular mobilisation force" came about out of the blue, made up of former shia-militias as well as ordinary civilians joining up. That stopped the "tribal revolutionaries" and "kurds" in their step just on the western outskirts of Baghdad near Abu Ghraib...

    and since last october the popular mobilisation has become the backbone of "iraq" forces... and spawned loyal sunni arab units as well as christian and yazidi and shabaki units.

    A "showdown" with the Kurds was inevitable as now its jockeying for territory... like I wrote... there are three warring parties. always understand and view the conflict from that perspective in order to have a clear understanding of what's happening there. Attempting to view the conflict as a "two actor" war would inevitably confuse matters and throw up many many contradictions. But viewed as a natural three way war its pretty clear.

    I agree that at some point the Kurds in Iraq will have to make a choice.
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    Post  flamming_python on Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:51 am

    George1 wrote:Unfortunately we have clashes between Shiite fighters and Kurds also..

    Hundreds Recruited to Shiite Militia Set to Fight Against Kurds in Iraq

    Iraqi anti-ISIL Shiite militia and Kurdish forces have been in constant confrontation. This month, the stand-off turned violent. Local media reports that Shiite Kurds are taking part in the Shiite militia in this sharp conflict among anti-Jihadi ranks.

    The Iran-backed Hashd al-Shaabi Shiite militia has recruited some 5,000 fighters in its ranks in recent months, including approximately 1,800 Shiite Kurds, who may take part in clashes with mainly Sunni Kurdish forces of Peshmerga, an anonymous local military official told the Kurdish Rudaw news outlet.

    “They have an entire brigade for the Kurdish recruits in Khanaqeen, fully armed and funded,” he was quoted as saying by Rudaw. “Even the commander of the brigade is a Shiite Kurd.”

    Intermittent clashes between the Popular Mobilization Units, as Hashd al-Shaabi’s name is translated, and the Peshmerga flared up on November 12 at a Kurdish checkpoint in Tuz Khurmatu, a multi-ethnic town lying on the main highway between Baghdad and Kirkuk. The clashes lasted for at least three days and reportedly claimed lives of 21 persons on both sides, including civilians, and multiple arrests. The stand-off is complicated by active engagement of civilians.

    “Violence in Khurmatu has resulted in the death and wounding of 21 people, including seven Kurds and others from Arabs and Turkmens of the city,” Jabar Yawar, chief of staff of the Peshmerga ministry, told Rudaw last week.

    Analysts point to the rivalry over control of territories across Iraq and historical Sunni-Shiite contradictions as possible reasons for violent confrontation. While Peshmerga represents mostly Sunni Kurds, Hashd al-Shaabi recruits Arabs, Turkmens and Shiite Kurds to its ranks.

    The town of Tuz Khurmatu’s disputed status was to be decided after a referendum, being continuously postponed since 2007. Earlier this fall, the Peshmerga forces and Shiite militias entered the city to take it under joint control during an ISIL offensive west of Kirkuk.

    Local Islamic clergy has raised its voices to urge Peshmerga and Hashd al-Shaabi to stop the clashes and ease tensions and concentrate on fighting the common enemy, ISIL, instead.

    “All hands should join and unite their energy to fight the real terrorists and the war should not be diverted from its course,” a major Shiite cleric Abdul-Mahdi said in a sermon in Karbala, as cited by Rudaw.

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/military/20151123/1030557592/shiite-militia-vs-peshmerga.html#ixzz3sIVgRAx2

    Hardly our business.

    When ISIS rampaged through Iraq last summer, as I recall the Iraqi president asked for support from 'Bama and Erbil.
    Both of their responses were 'ermmm, ya, maybe a little later we'll help you out a lil'
    Of course, when ISIS then turned their attentions against the Kurds and launched a surprise assault (and a very successful one), both the Americans and the Kurds suddenly got indignant and started painting ISIS as a threat to the world.

    Well I don't have any particular sympathy with the Kurds; not against ISIS, not against the Turks, not against the Shi'ites. If the Kurds start fighting against the Shi'ites too; they're the ones that will be surrounded on all sides and will get destroyed, not ISIS - they ought to keep that in mind.
    Either way, it's absolutely none of business who takes on who there, it's a mess and I have scarce sympathy for anyone there but innocent civilians on all sides.

    Russia declared its mission objective as wiping out the Islamist forces in Syria.. let's try to stick to that, shall we, without too much mission creep?
    Neither the Turks nor the Kurds nor the Shi'ites pose any threat to Russian territory/citizens whatsoever, so why concern ourselves.
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    Post  George1 on Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:17 pm

    sheytan what are the recent developments there after turkish invasion? how is that received from various sides there? (shiites, shunis and kurds)
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    Post  sheytanelkebir on Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:28 pm

    George1 wrote: sheytan what are the recent developments there after turkish invasion? how is that received from various sides there? (shiites, shunis and kurds)

    KDP kurds and anti government sunnis are pro turk
    non kdp kurds and shias and pro government sunnis and christians etc... are anti turk
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    Post  DerWolf on Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:42 pm

    sheytanelkebir wrote:
    George1 wrote: sheytan what are the recent developments there after turkish invasion? how is that received from various sides there? (shiites, shunis and kurds)

    KDP kurds and anti government sunnis are pro turk
    non kdp kurds and shias and pro government sunnis and christians etc... are anti turk

    Have the turkish army retreated from Iraq, some days ago this come up in the media?
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    Post  sheytanelkebir on Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:45 pm

    DerWolf wrote:
    sheytanelkebir wrote:
    George1 wrote: sheytan what are the recent developments there after turkish invasion? how is that received from various sides there? (shiites, shunis and kurds)

    KDP kurds and anti government sunnis are pro turk
    non kdp kurds and shias and pro government sunnis and christians etc... are anti turk

    Have the turkish army retreated from Iraq, some days ago this come up in the media?

    they left the "nominal iraq" area and withdrew to their base in the KRG area... where they've been for 20 years already.

    now that base has been hit by over 100 rockets and the sunni arab "national mobilisation" which collaborates with the turks has also run away.
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    Post  sheytanelkebir on Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:57 pm

    it seems the rocket bombardment of the turkish base in bashiqa ninawa resulted in the death of a kdp peshmarga officer

    #Peshmerga Brigadier general MuGhdid Hargi was killed with 8 of his guards in #Bashiqa attack today. pic.twitter.com/zQXSPAiQmp
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:00 pm

    Some sources claim that the casualties are much heavier.
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    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:42 am

    I guess Iraq has all the right to defend its territorial integrity (please Use TOS-1A next time).
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    Post  higurashihougi on Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:56 am

    Seems like the West are determined to dump Erdogan et al.

    https://www.rt.com/news/326172-us-turkey-troops-iraq/

    The US has urged Turkey to withdraw its “unauthorized” military forces from northern Iraq, calling on Ankara to respect the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    US Vice President Joe Biden has spoken to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi regarding Turkey’s troop deployments.

    The Vice President reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity and called on Turkey to do the same by withdrawing any military forces from Iraqi territory that have not been authorized by the Iraqi government,” the White House said in a statement.

    The call between Biden and al-Abadi came two days after the Vice President’s talk with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

    Stressing Washington’s commitment to close cooperation with both Iraq and Turkey in the fight against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), Biden urged Ankara to continue its dialogue with Baghdad.

    “The Vice President reiterated that any foreign military presence in Iraq must be with the full consent of the Iraq government,” read a statement from the White House on December 14.
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    Post  Erk on Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:09 am

    higurashihougi wrote:Seems like the West are determined to dump Erdogan et al.

    https://www.rt.com/news/326172-us-turkey-troops-iraq/

    The US has urged Turkey to withdraw its “unauthorized” military forces from northern Iraq, calling on Ankara to respect the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    US Vice President Joe Biden has spoken to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi regarding Turkey’s troop deployments.

    The Vice President reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity and called on Turkey to do the same by withdrawing any military forces from Iraqi territory that have not been authorized by the Iraqi government,” the White House said in a statement.

    The call between Biden and al-Abadi came two days after the Vice President’s talk with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

    Stressing Washington’s commitment to close cooperation with both Iraq and Turkey in the fight against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), Biden urged Ankara to continue its dialogue with Baghdad.

    “The Vice President reiterated that any foreign military presence in Iraq must be with the full consent of the Iraq government,” read a statement from the White House on December 14.

    Or it's a feint whilst they build up to something.


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    Post  par far on Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:34 am

    Erk wrote:
    higurashihougi wrote:Seems like the West are determined to dump Erdogan et al.

    https://www.rt.com/news/326172-us-turkey-troops-iraq/

    The US has urged Turkey to withdraw its “unauthorized” military forces from northern Iraq, calling on Ankara to respect the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    US Vice President Joe Biden has spoken to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi regarding Turkey’s troop deployments.

    The Vice President reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity and called on Turkey to do the same by withdrawing any military forces from Iraqi territory that have not been authorized by the Iraqi government,” the White House said in a statement.

    The call between Biden and al-Abadi came two days after the Vice President’s talk with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

    Stressing Washington’s commitment to close cooperation with both Iraq and Turkey in the fight against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL), Biden urged Ankara to continue its dialogue with Baghdad.

    “The Vice President reiterated that any foreign military presence in Iraq must be with the full consent of the Iraq government,” read a statement from the White House on December 14.

    Or it's a feint whilst they build up to something.




    This is more than likely true, Iraq has to turn to Russia for help.
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    Post  George1 on Wed Oct 09, 2019 12:18 am

    Lavrov arrives in capital of Iraq’s Kurdish Autonomy Erbil

    Russia traditionally supports good relations with the Kurds in Iraq and elsewhere and stands for ensuring their cultural and linguistic rights

    ERBIL /Iraq/, October 7. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has arrived in the capital of Iraq’s Kurdish Autonomy, Erbil, for a meeting with the region’s officials.

    Earlier on Monday Lavrov held talks with his Iraqi counterpart Mohammed Ali Alhakim, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Alhalboosi and Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi.

    Iraq’s Kurdish Autonomy in 2017 tried to unilaterally proclaim independence, but this intention failed to meet with support from world powers. As a result of negotiations the Kurds and the central authorities of Iraq managed to come to terms on the rights of the autonomy’s population and the rules of sharing oil export revenues, so the conflict was defused by and large, but some contradictions between the parties have remained to this day.

    Russia traditionally supports good relations with the Kurds in Iraq and elsewhere and stands for ensuring their cultural and linguistic rights, as well for giving them a say in running the country, and is opposed to unilateral actions for declaring independence and redrawing borders.

    Unsettled foreign economic activity issues between Baghdad and Erbil have affected the operation of Russian companies. In 2018, the central authorities established a rule Russia’s oil company Rosneft operating in Kurdistan should carry out all work at the local oil fields through Baghdad, and not the local Kurdish authorities.

    The leaders of Iraq’s Kurdish Autonomy represent the Barzani clan. The informal leader is an old-timer of Kurdish politics, Masoud Barzani. The autonomy’s president is his nephew Nechirvan Barzani, and prime minister, Masoud’s son Masrour Barzani.

    https://tass.com/world/1081871
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    Post  nomadski on Sat Nov 02, 2019 5:06 pm

    How to solve the democratic problem in Iraq  ( or Syria or Lebanon)? Where the young population feels that improvements need to be made. Where they say different sects have too much power. A move away from narrow political interests.

    I have said before that a parliament should proportionately represent all the sections of a country. The Parliament should represent the population by trade or profession, by religious denomination by ethnicity and language and by age.

    Where political interest groups are stronger than others and they predominate in fielded or elected candidates. And these candidates do not represent proportionately the population. Then the constitution should disallow certain number from these groups or parties to stand in parliament. And the law should provide for election of persons that are qualified and representational from the constituency.  Stand as independent candidates.

    In this way, no political party or religious group or class can through it's power and influence, predominate and misrepresent the electorate. There can be no monopoly. No sectarian dominance. That is the reform that is needed.

    An electoral commission, of constitutional judges can appoint individuals to parliament duty from minority groups not represented by main political parties. The same way a jury is appointed in court of law for court work. No difference.

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