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    Iran/US situation

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu May 16, 2019 5:01 pm

    Look ISOS, I don't disagree that Iran's airforce will be a major problem for US. But I am saying it wont be as easy as you may think it will be.

    Hopefully we wont know. Cause I know for fact Iran has a lot of ways to retaliate and it can get real ugly real fast.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu May 16, 2019 5:42 pm

    Russia may also send her AWACS & MiG-31s to S. Caspian or over Iran to assist in their AD. And they'll get any wrecked F-35/22/15/18s for study. An attack on Iran is an attack on Russian & Chinese interests.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu May 16, 2019 5:45 pm

    I don't think Russia would involve itself directly in Iran. They may cooperate with third parties in sending weapons over but highly doubt direct intervention.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu May 16, 2019 6:14 pm

    After what they did in Syria, why not?
    Iran Will Defeat US-Israeli Alliance, Says Defense Minister
    Frustrated GOP Senators Want Answers From Trump on Iran
    Schumer: Trump Officials Should Testify on Iran This Week
    UAE Says It Will Show Restraint After Tanker Attacks, Iran's Behavior a Concern https://www.antiwar.com/

    9 Easy Propaganda steps to War with Iran
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    par far

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    Post  par far on Thu May 16, 2019 6:52 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    par far wrote:If the US attacks Iran, than it will probably be over quickly(I hate to say this but the Iranian technology is no where near the level of US) and I don't think that Russia and China would be able to do anything to help Iran because they would fear sanctions and attacks on their own homelands.

    The Iranians just need to get diplomatic awareness around the world, that is the best thing they can do here.      

    US wouldn't dare hit Russia or China on their homeland cause it would get nuclear pretty damn fast.

    I take it you are still a youngster with such remarks?


    Not a youngster, just thinking what the US would do about Russia and China, if it attacked Iran.
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    par far

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    Post  par far on Thu May 16, 2019 6:57 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Russia may also send her AWACS & MiG-31s to S. Caspian or over Iran to assist in their AD. And they'll get any wrecked F-35/22/15/18s for study. An attack on Iran is an attack on Russian & Chinese interests.


    This is true. The one thing I don't get is, why would the US attack Iran now, when it is more powerful now, than anytime in their history, and when Russia and China are superpowers?
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Thu May 16, 2019 9:38 pm

    Since no attack on Iran by Uncle Scumbag and his minions will have UN approval, Russia is free to intervene in any way it wants. Power
    is a matter of perceptions and costs. By being too timid makes the NATO hyenas look mighty and untouchable. They are nothing of the
    sort. NATO cannot eliminate Russia without eliminating itself. So it should, by definition, have no ability to do as it pleases in
    places like Iran which are of strategic importance to Russia.

    Putin drew the red line in 2013 to Obama and Obama blinked. Why would Russia roll over and play dead in the case of Iran? Iran is an
    even redder, red line. I think Russia will fight against the hyenas directly as a coalition with Iran (and others). It is the hyenas
    that will limit their intervention intensity. There will be no escalation to WWIII. NATO propagandists cannot justify WWIII based on
    Iran.

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    Post  littlerabbit on Thu May 16, 2019 11:00 pm

    par far wrote:
    Tsavo Lion wrote:Russia may also send her AWACS & MiG-31s to S. Caspian or over Iran to assist in their AD. And they'll get any wrecked F-35/22/15/18s for study. An attack on Iran is an attack on Russian & Chinese interests.


    This is true. The one thing I don't get is, why would the US attack Iran now, when it is more powerful now, than anytime in their history, and  when Russia and China are superpowers?

    I think it has something to do with Chinese Silk road and the fact that Iran is essential for that project. Recently USA-China trade negotiations collapsed and it looks like Washington is sending a strong message to Chinese counterpart. scratch
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Fri May 17, 2019 12:17 am

    I think it has something to do with Chinese Silk road and the fact that Iran is essential for that project. Recently USA-China trade negotiations collapsed and it looks like Washington is sending a strong message to Chinese counterpart.

    You are not wrong there...

    Of course if the US attacks Iran what will their objectives be... they certainly wont want to invade... there would be no practical purpose to such a thing... far to risky in a largely hostile country.

    They will want regime change and in the process of attacking they will want to damage the Iranian military and its nuclear capability, so attacks on the military and also the government but I suspect they will desperately try not to hurt the average Iranian because ultimately they want their cooperation at some stage to "overthrow the evil regime and bring peace and democracy to the region".

    In that case they will be basically Scud hunting... trying to find and destroy ballistic missiles before they can be launched.

    The instant the war starts I suspect all agreements are torn up and Russia would be free to sell them anything they wanted... like Flankers or perhaps just lots of new R-77 missiles for their MiG-29s.

    Any attack will immediately result in Iran closing the straights... simply because it is the best way to hurt the US, and also start launching ballistic missiles and cruise missiles at US bases in the region... if they don't launch them the US will probably find them and destroy them on the ground so it will be a case of use it or lose it.

    Any US air attack will likely be largely made up of F-22s and F-35s, with AWACS support so it will be interesting to see how these perform in a real combat... it will only take a couple of losses of either type to screw the USAF for years to come because their uber planes were not uber in performance... they will always be uber in price and operational costs...

    To be honest I think Trump has rather more to lose in a shooting war, especially this side of the election... which is why I don't think it will happen.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri May 17, 2019 12:59 am

    The ? is, is Trump really in charge & strong enough to prevent any war with Iran? Time will tell!
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2629445.html

    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2629245.html
    crod
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    Post  crod on Fri May 17, 2019 2:24 am

    "The instant the war starts I suspect all agreements are torn up and Russia would be free to sell them anything they wanted... like Flankers or perhaps just lots of new R-77 missiles for their MiG-29s.

    Any US air attack will likely be largely made up of F-22s and F-35s, with AWACS support so it will be interesting to see how these perform in a real combat... it will only take a couple of losses of either type to screw the USAF for years to come because their uber planes were not uber in performance... they will always be uber in price and operational costs..."

    not sure any of the Iranian aircraft would survive the first or second waves of attacks tbh and certainly not as long as it would take the Russians to a) make up their mind in supporting Iran this way. I dont see the Russians helping Iran this way. Israel and Russia are better friends than Russia and Iran. Also, their might well have been an agreement made in the past week with the US. And b) the time in getting the missiles to them safely.

    On thee F-22 and F-35 front - Iran has very little to counter this in meaning numbers - the yanks will have clear skies for starters which means only what Iran can launch from the ground. Have they got much? outdated systems, copied systems, fake news systems?? I'm not convinced they have the fire-power nor the experience to defend themselves apart from launching rockets at bases and US interests which you'd think some would penetrate the patriot and ad network. But how accurate are these weapons? Didn't they launch a shed load at an isis base in Syria and it was left standing afterwards?
    crod
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    Post  crod on Fri May 17, 2019 2:26 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:The ? is, is Trump really in charge & strong enough to prevent any war with Iran? Time will tell!
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2629445.html

    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2629245.html

    and there lies the problem - that fuck head Bolton calling the shots. scary as fuck.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri May 17, 2019 4:42 am

    Extreme precision is not critical regarding the ballistic missiles, there are lots of major population centres in the countries that have US bases... if a country lets the US attack Iran from those bases then they are aiding the US and therefore are legitimate targets... at the very least it will force the US to move air defence batteries to cover a much larger area which should make it easier to penetrate.

    Regarding shipping I would say their best bet is to simply state that any and all ships passing through the straights are supporting the US attacks on Iran (remember this does not have to make sense... look at US demands like no fly zones over Libya) and until further notice all shipping traffic will be fired upon.

    I would also actively start moving weapons to Syria for the purpose of launching strikes at Israel... specifically their nuclear power station and any suspected locations they might be storing nuclear weapons.

    and there lies the problem - that fuck head Bolton calling the shots. scary as fuck.

    The fact that the US isn't in a shooting war with Iran and Venezuela and North Korea right now suggests to me that he doesn't have final say yet.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri May 17, 2019 5:30 am

    I would also actively start moving weapons to Syria for the purpose of launching strikes at Israel... specifically their nuclear power station and any suspected locations they might be storing nuclear weapons.
    If they attack the Israeli nuclear sites, their Dolhin subs will retaliate with nuclear tipped LACMs. IMO Iran will try to avoid a war on 2 fronts with 2 strong nuclear & PGM armed enemies.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri May 17, 2019 6:19 am

    The Americans are a hyperpower and they want regime change in Iran... the regime in Iran have nothing to lose... if they are going to get taken out with stealth fighters and stealth bombers... why not test those ballistic missiles to the full... hell fill them up with uranium see how much of Israel they can make uninhabitable...
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri May 17, 2019 7:09 am

    I mean with 2 enemies at the same time. They don't have enough uranium & in any case wont poison the Israeli Arabs & Palestinians.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Fri May 17, 2019 9:07 am

    GarryB wrote:

    I would also actively start moving weapons to Syria for the purpose of launching strikes at Israel... specifically their nuclear power station and any suspected locations they might be storing nuclear weapons.

    haven't they being attempting that since the beginning only for isreal to destroy the hardware and people?
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    Post  GarryB on Fri May 17, 2019 1:05 pm

    I mean with 2 enemies at the same time. They don't have enough uranium & in any case wont poison the Israeli Arabs & Palestinians.

    Are you suggesting if the US attacks Iran that the Israelis and Saudis will remain neutral?

    Really?

    A few tons of nuclear waste material dumped on Mecca would be a good start... look at how significant the Scud was in terms of media coverage during Desert Storm despite being militarily insignificant... their new ballistic missiles are supposed to be rather more accurate... will be a good test.

    They are trying to annex the Golan Heights and say the next goal is the Gaza strip... the Palestinians have nothing to lose any more... Israel will find a way to exterminate them... the EU is too scared to do anything and the US will supply the means to do it...

    Nothing promotes anti semitism like Israel.

    haven't they being attempting that since the beginning only for israel to destroy the hardware and people?

    Israel claims that is why they are attacking targets, but why would anyone believe them... they are defacto supporting ISIS in the region... fuck em.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri May 17, 2019 8:48 pm

    Trump's America would go it alone against Iran
    Saudi Arabia and Israel have long called for regime change, but are wary of taking part in an actual conflict

    Next door Turkey, Pakistan upgrade strategic partnership


    'Potentially Imminent Threat' From Iran Grips DC

    Key Saudi Paper Urges US to Attack Iran
    US Official Claims Iranian Missiles Spotted on Boats in Iranian Waters
    There Is a 'Real' Risk of Miscalculation in US-Iran Tensions: Expert

    Trump on War With Iran: 'I Hope Not'

    Two Strikes Would Win War With Iran: US Senator Tom Cotton

    item Iran Says 'Hell No!' to Trump's Aggression by Doug Bandow
    item Lobbying for War by Mashal Hashem & James Allen
    item Leaked Doc Pokes More Holes in Establishment Syria Narrative by Caitlin Johnstone
    item Who Wants This War With Iran? by Patrick J. Buchanan
    item Don't Iraq Iran by David Swanson
    item How Donald Trump May Push America Into a War With Iran by

    Iran Reaction to US Threats
    Iran Says No Talks With the US as Gulf Tensions Soar
    Iran Plans No Changes to Nuclear Centrifuges, IAEA Ties: Spox
    Iran Says Exercising Restraint Despite 'Unacceptable' Escalation of US Sanctions
    Minister: Iran Builds Firewall Against Stuxnet Computer Virus
    Iran and the World
    If the US Goes to War With Iran, Netanyahu Will Be the Prime Suspect
    UK Raises Threat Level to Personnel in Iraq Due to Iran Risk
    Britain Says Shares Same Assessment of Iran as the US
    PM Abe Says Japan Wants to Develop Ties With Iran
    No Change to French Patrols Off UAE After Tanker Attacks: Military Spokesman
    Tanker Unloads Iranian Fuel Oil at China Port After Five-Month Trek
    US Congress and Iran
    Congressional Leaders Get Classified Briefing on Iran
    Key Republican 'Convinced' Iran Threats Are Credible
    US House Speaker: Congress Has Not Approved War Against
    https://www.antiwar.com/


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Fri May 17, 2019 9:28 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sat May 18, 2019 4:10 am

    Yeah, Saudi Arabia also said that Cashyogi was alive and well when he left the Saudi Embassy and wasn't in any way killed or dismembered.

    Of course they can say anything they like but they want the US to attack Iran, and will likely do all sorts of things to make sure it happens, which might include actually assisting in the attacks to make sure it happens.

    Whether they do or do not it will be a great opportunity for Iran to launch ballistic missiles at them anyway... they can take a leaf out of the American war manual... some Saudis and some Pakistanis attack the US on 11/9 and so the US invades Iraq and Afghanistan... strangely enough ten years later the Saudi Funded Osama Bin Laden is found in Pakistan... no US media question US actions for the past 10 years let alone the last 100 years...
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat May 18, 2019 4:21 am

    ..the Saudi Funded Osama Bin Laden is found in Pakistan.
    He was on his own since before leaving Sudan & had enough $ not to need any funding by others.
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    Post  nomadski on Sat May 18, 2019 4:56 pm

    I must say that , Iran so far has not changed material conditions on the ground . Giving ultimatums and possibly a small disruption to shipping will not force a business owner in China or Russia or Europe to start doing business in Islamic Republic of  Iran . Because the sanctions ( blockade )  by yank remain . The primary sanctions by yank must end now , Iran should not allow itself to be turned into Yemen . Iran can only do this by closing down oil . Changing material conditions on the ground .So the average joe , will not get to work on time in Hamburg.  The economies of the world grind to halt . And political pressure forces different states to open trade with Iran . In this war , the hot war , that Iran will have to start . It may face more than just the yanks . Other states will join in on their side . Not because they are right . But because these states will not risk war with USA , but they can risk war with Iran . An assembly similiar to first war against Saddam . Iran can not hope to win this war without nukes . So they must get them now . And then close Hormuz . Until sanctions of USA lifted . Iran then becoming official nuke armed state .
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat May 18, 2019 6:00 pm

    Getting their own nukes takes time. If Pakistan or NK give WMD to Iran, all hell may break loose against them as well.

    https://news.antiwar.com/2019/05/17/iraqi-parliament-poised-to-evict-us-troops/

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/05/16/irans-man-in-iraq-america-is-not-the-old-america-it-is-weaker-than-ever/

    https://www.fff.org/2019/05/13/iraq-deja-vu-with-iran/

    https://theweek.com/articles/841553/war-iran-illegal-idiotic



    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sat May 18, 2019 8:48 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add links)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun May 19, 2019 7:19 am

    He was on his own since before leaving Sudan & had enough $ not to need any funding by others.

    Kashoggi is well known for his support for OBL, are you trying to say that everyone from Saudi Arabia... all those hundreds of princes and cousins and other relatives... bitter rivals for power that would side with Israel to counter a growing Iran, completely cut all support for OBL and his family?

    Saudi Arabia is openly murdering people every day in Yemen... do you think they give a shit about what OBL did in the US on 11/9... do you think they hold him in contempt for what he managed to achieve... of course they wont say it in public because you don't shit where you eat, but behind closed doors they see him as a hero.

    They clearly have a different concept of cowardice of course, but then for the US McCain is a hero for murdering people from 20,000ft in a B-52 and then getting shot down and captured... and likely selling out his country for good confinement conditions...

    I must say that , Iran so far has not changed material conditions on the ground . Giving ultimatums and possibly a small disruption to shipping will not force a business owner in China or Russia or Europe to start doing business in Islamic Republic of Iran . Because the sanctions ( blockade ) by yank remain . The primary sanctions by yank must end now , Iran should not allow itself to be turned into Yemen . Iran can only do this by closing down oil . Changing material conditions on the ground .So the average joe , will not get to work on time in Hamburg. The economies of the world grind to halt . And political pressure forces different states to open trade with Iran . In this war , the hot war , that Iran will have to start . It may face more than just the yanks . Other states will join in on their side . Not because they are right . But because these states will not risk war with USA , but they can risk war with Iran . An assembly similiar to first war against Saddam . Iran can not hope to win this war without nukes . So they must get them now . And then close Hormuz . Until sanctions of USA lifted . Iran then becoming official nuke armed state .

    I think Irans best option right now is to withdraw from the agreement if the EU wont hold up their end of the bargain and once the agreement is toast they need to go into overdrive to develop nuclear weapons as fast as they can... they don't need to be sophisticated or particularly powerful but they need something that will fit into the ballistic missiles they have... even if they are only 10-20KTs but fit in ballistic rockets that can reach Israel and US bases in the region.

    Of course that will take time, and in the mean time the US and Israel and SA will probably try to start a war... closing off the gulf will force a war, but it is an option they need to keep open while they are racing to get a bomb.

    They also need better air power... they need new planes and they need modern AAMs and if possible jamming pods that will reduce the effectiveness of AMRAAM to near zero.

    Once the agreement is torn up they need to get a large loan from either China or Russia and buy new Chinese or Russian fighters... I am obviously biased but I would suggest a licence production agreement for MiG-29M2 fighters... they are cheaper than MiG-35s so they can make more of them and over time they can upgrade them to MiG-35 level performance.

    I would also look at replacing the two engines of their locally produced variant of the F-5 with a single engine from the MiG to improve performance and commonality and replace its four 20mm cannon with the single 30mm gun of the MiG-29.

    I would also order some Su-30s to replace the F-14s in service.

    If Pakistan or NK give WMD to Iran, all hell may break loose against them as well.

    I am sure if Iran offered NK a very large amount of money... say 10 billion dollars in oil, they would be happy to transfer the information needed to make their own... not like they have anything else they can do with all that oil thanks to the US...
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    Post  littlerabbit on Sun May 19, 2019 2:10 pm

    There is something I would like to know. In the hypothetical war Iran vs USA&Israel&SA, how many medium range rockets (Shahab 3, Sejjil, Ghadr110 etc) could IRGC actually fire on Israel? Dozens or hudreds...I saw a video of underground base from Iranian TV, there were dozens of trucks loaded with rockets, probably Shahab 3 and Sejjil. I've read about Iranian underground bases, apparently there are more than 20 of them. If all of them have that many launchers, IRGC can make a havoc to any attacker. scratch

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