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    Iran/US tensions

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:39 am

    Everyone knows the Iranians stuck to the deal, it is the US saying they now think the deal did not favour them enough and they want to rewrite it... probably including no ballistic missiles or space launchers for satellites and of course no Iranian troops in Iran or Iraq or Afghanistan or all the other places the US has troops...

    This must really burn because there is a lot of money to be made in Iran and clearly the American companies are going to miss out and it looks like their being spineless is also going to cost the europeans as well... too bad. Hahahaha.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:37 am

    It could all be about to go so very wrong for bibi me thinks. Iran could be left in a very strong position after all this with bibi getting the polar opposite of what he envisaged. The lasting mark of his premiership, made Iran the regional superpower. 😂😂😂
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:29 pm

    Prospects look bright for US-Iran breakthrough

    Why is China sending 5,000 of its commandos to Iran? Beijing invests 100s of $Bs in Islamic Republic economy despite U.S. sanctions
    crod
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    Post  crod on Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:26 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Prospects look bright for US-Iran breakthrough

    Why is China sending 5,000 of its commandos to Iran? Beijing invests 100s of $Bs in Islamic Republic economy despite U.S. sanctions

    Second article is utter rubbish - the article headline references 5,000 commandos - Celestial Security Service are a Philippino based private security company that will provide 5,000 personnel but they are not Chinese and are not Chinese commandos. They do not provide infrastructure either, the article claims they will provide an additional "$ 120 billion in the development of the Islamic Republic’s transport network."

    Either google translate fucked this article up or the author is very much misinformed.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:36 am

    They could be ethnic Chinese or officially discharged/retired/detailed Armed militia/PLA auxiliary soldiers. Sending out 5K of them won't affect anything else defense related in China, since they have ~2M under arms now.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:10 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:They could be ethnic Chinese or officially discharged/retired/detailed Armed militia/PLA auxiliary soldiers. Sending out 5K of them won't affect anything else defense related in China, since they have ~2M under arms now.

    yeah for sure, but it's probably a stretch to call them Chinese commandos. All in all, it's a significant win for both Iran and China imo.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:36 am


    Looks like Iran can do well without Yanks. But Iran still faces prospect of military attacks from Yanks and others. Any economic deal with any nation, does not remove prospect of war. A strong military including nuclear detterent does remove prospect of war. So Iran politicians must no longer confuse the two issues. And separate defence from economics. Iran needs ICBM and nukes.

    The JCPOA was a test. Not of bilateral Iran / US relations. And not a test of any present or future government. It was a test for humanity. For the foreseeable future. The next fifty to hundred years. Will there be massive wars of annihilation? Will there be genocide? Can there be peace? The answer was given by Trump. Destroy, annihilate, choke and strangulate!

    So we have our answer. And Iranian people have their answer. And the world has it's answer. And if anyone now in Iran thinks otherwise, is allowing a foreign power, to attack Iran. Iran now should go nuclear. What relation they want or otherwise with Yanks, is dependent on their policy in ME. Not connected to Iran defence.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:21 pm

    Well if I was the Iranian leadership I wouldn't trust Trump at all... I am sure Trump will try to shift the blame for tearing up the agreement and all the sanctions on Bolton but at the end of the day he is president and if he thought differently he should have acted that way unless he is admitting he was Boltons bitch... which is even more reason to not trust him or any agreements made with him.

    If he will roll back sanctions in return for promises regarding nuclear material processing, then maybe, but I rather suspect he has seen China sign a big juicy deal with Iran and he wants a piece of that pie... and therefore I suspect he might roll back all of those sanctions in return for juicy agreements over billions of dollars of oil contracts with US companies... in other words trying to shaft Russia and the EU in a scrabble to get what is left... he might even want some of the things China already signed up for... but lets see.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:24 am

    Iran May Not Be the Entirely Reliable Ally in the Caspian Moscow Hopes For

    Russia may use the current crisis to extract concessions from Iran in exchange for its help.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:55 am

    Fighting talk again...as Bolton smiles wryly from the sidelines.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/trump-says-us-locked-and-loaded-after-saudi-arabia-oil-attack-as-crude-prices-soar-iran-aramco

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:57 pm

    Russia may use the current crisis to extract concessions from Iran in exchange for its help.

    Iran is not a trusted Russian ally and Russia is not really trusted by Iran, but they have deals and they are sticking by them, unlike the US.

    Russia is happy with the agreement regarding the Caspian Sea... why risk that to change the deal?

    It is generally in Russias interests to help Iran where the US and the west is concerned, because those sanctions the west has on Iran are the same as the ones the west has on other countries including Russia... why would Russia help the US with sanctions against Iran when those same sanctions generally apply to Russia too?

    There is no value for Russia in turning on China or Iran to please the west and get a better deal for itself because it is the west and the US that are the problem... Russia has a trading future with China and potentially Iran more so than with the west.

    Fighting talk again...as Bolton smiles wryly from the sidelines.

    Sounds like a false flag operation he probably signed off on, but it clearly shows how vulnerable oil assets in the region actually are... claims the US forces will be protected by air defence systems is proven a thin argument as these assets were also protected by the same systems...

    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:07 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Russia may use the current crisis to extract concessions from Iran in exchange for its help.

    Iran is not a trusted Russian ally and Russia is not really trusted by Iran, but they have deals and they are sticking by them, unlike the US.

    Russia is happy with the agreement regarding the Caspian Sea... why risk that to change the deal?

    It is generally in Russias interests to help Iran where the US and the west is concerned, because those sanctions the west has on Iran are the same as the ones the west has on other countries including Russia... why would Russia help the US with sanctions against Iran when those same sanctions generally apply to Russia too?

    There is no value for Russia in turning on China or Iran to please the west and get a better deal for itself because it is the west and the US that are the problem... Russia has a trading future with China and potentially Iran more so than with the west.

    Fighting talk again...as Bolton smiles wryly from the sidelines.

    Sounds like a false flag operation he probably signed off on, but it clearly shows how vulnerable oil assets in the region actually are... claims the US forces will be protected by air defence systems is proven a thin argument as these assets were also protected by the same systems...


    Iran played crucial role in Aleppo and eastern Syria campaigns between 2016 and 2017. Had it not been for Shahed 129 attack drones the campaigns would have taken years longer due to Russia's continuing lack of attack drones.




    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:41 pm

    Trump Awaits orders from Saudis; and Why the Houthis could have Done It
    Viktor
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    Post  Viktor on Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:04 pm

    I believe that distrust that existed between Russia and Iran that the West enchanted throughout previous years now lay in ruins together with the terrorist in Aleppo and that what we are seeing  now is emergence of the new found trust based on new understanding.

    btw its interesting to note how a single 10+ drone attack can put entire kingdom on its knees never mind gazillions of $ in US weapons and talk. I think last day whole West watched in horror what their confidence is based on.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:12 pm

    If they continue to lose refining/exporting of oil, it may lead to a regime change in the KSA.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:36 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:If they continue to lose refining/exporting of oil, it may lead to a regime change in the KSA.

    I could think of worse things!!

    Chickens always come home to roost after all.
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    Post  Tingsay on Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:17 am

    Era of Drones have arrived. Laughing
    This is one big strategic attack from such cheap and easy weapons.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:42 am

    Their AWACSs either didn't pick them or their AD with Patriots can't deal with such simple CMs.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:52 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Their AWACSs either didn't pick them or their AD with Patriots can't deal with such simple CMs.

    Or the cruise missiles never went into patriot's engagement zone.

    That reminds me the Malaisia flight that many people said it was weired that the malaisian air force didn't intercept. In an interview a former pilote gave the explanation and it was rather simple, after 10:00 pm the pilots are at home sleeping.

    For the saudis the main threat was in the south with the houtis BM.
    starman
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    Post  starman on Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:45 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:If they continue to lose refining/exporting of oil, it may lead to a regime change in the KSA.

    A number of factors--the Yemen fiasco generally, the Khashoggi affair, the cozying up to bibi's Israel--may deligitimize the KSA monarchy and pave the way for its fall.


    Last edited by starman on Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:37 am; edited 1 time in total
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:12 pm

    A weired thing is that Trump is asking for proofs to know exactly who launch the attacks. He doesn't seem to believe those early report from its intel.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:19 pm

    Isos wrote:A weired thing is that Trump is asking for proofs to know exactly who launch the attacks. He doesn't seem to believe those early report from its intel.

    Or perhaps not....

    https://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/military-options-on-the-table-as-us-prepares-response-to-saudi-oil-attack/news-story/0bd2c8c13b95a68045e8bc502266e4f3
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:12 pm

    A relatively small attack too... imagine if it was repeated against multiple targets at once... these are not billion dollar state of the art systems...

    Wonder how long it will take for the west to realise that the Saudis spent a bit more on air defence systems than they did and some of their systems are the sort of thing the west relies on... and how fragile the west actually is to countries that actually have the ability and will to fight back.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:00 pm

    Trump Has been Waging a Brutal War on Iran for over a Year, in Alliance with Saudi Arabia & Israel

    https://regnum.ru/news/economy/2720325.html

    Russia and Iran build powerful alliance countering USA and Saudi Arabia
    http://www.pravdareport.com/world/142754-russia_iran/




    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:09 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:11 pm

    Russia and Iran build powerful alliance countering USA and Saudi Arabia

    That's why Putin offered yesterday the S-400 to saudi arabia ?

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