US-Iran standoff 2019-

It could all be about to go so very wrong for bibi me thinks. Iran could be left in a very strong position after all this with bibi getting the polar opposite of what he envisaged. The lasting mark of his premiership, made Iran the regional superpower.

Prospects look bright for US-Iran breakthrough

Why is China sending 5,000 of its commandos to Iran? Beijing invests 100s of $Bs in Islamic Republic economy despite U.S. sanctions

Tsavo Lion wrote:Prospects look bright for US-Iran breakthrough

Why is China sending 5,000 of its commandos to Iran? Beijing invests 100s of $Bs in Islamic Republic economy despite U.S. sanctions

Second article is utter rubbish - the article headline references 5,000 commandos - Celestial Security Service are a Philippino based private security company that will provide 5,000 personnel but they are not Chinese and are not Chinese commandos. They do not provide infrastructure either, the article claims they will provide an additional "$ 120 billion in the development of the Islamic Republic’s transport network."

Either google translate fucked this article up or the author is very much misinformed.

They could be ethnic Chinese or officially discharged/retired/detailed Armed militia/PLA auxiliary soldiers. Sending out 5K of them won't affect anything else defense related in China, since they have ~2M under arms now.

Tsavo Lion wrote:They could be ethnic Chinese or officially discharged/retired/detailed Armed militia/PLA auxiliary soldiers. Sending out 5K of them won't affect anything else defense related in China, since they have ~2M under arms now.

yeah for sure, but it's probably a stretch to call them Chinese commandos. All in all, it's a significant win for both Iran and China imo.

Looks like Iran can do well without Yanks. But Iran still faces prospect of military attacks from Yanks and others. Any economic deal with any nation, does not remove prospect of war. A strong military including nuclear detterent does remove prospect of war. So Iran politicians must no longer confuse the two issues. And separate defence from economics. Iran needs ICBM and nukes.

The JCPOA was a test. Not of bilateral Iran / US relations. And not a test of any present or future government. It was a test for humanity. For the foreseeable future. The next fifty to hundred years. Will there be massive wars of annihilation? Will there be genocide? Can there be peace? The answer was given by Trump. Destroy, annihilate, choke and strangulate!

So we have our answer. And Iranian people have their answer. And the world has it's answer. And if anyone now in Iran thinks otherwise, is allowing a foreign power, to attack Iran. Iran now should go nuclear. What relation they want or otherwise with Yanks, is dependent on their policy in ME. Not connected to Iran defence.

Well if I was the Iranian leadership I wouldn't trust Trump at all... I am sure Trump will try to shift the blame for tearing up the agreement and all the sanctions on Bolton but at the end of the day he is president and if he thought differently he should have acted that way unless he is admitting he was Boltons bitch... which is even more reason to not trust him or any agreements made with him.

If he will roll back sanctions in return for promises regarding nuclear material processing, then maybe, but I rather suspect he has seen China sign a big juicy deal with Iran and he wants a piece of that pie... and therefore I suspect he might roll back all of those sanctions in return for juicy agreements over billions of dollars of oil contracts with US companies... in other words trying to shaft Russia and the EU in a scrabble to get what is left... he might even want some of the things China already signed up for... but lets see.

Iran May Not Be the Entirely Reliable Ally in the Caspian Moscow Hopes For

Russia may use the current crisis to extract concessions from Iran in exchange for its help.

Fighting talk again...as Bolton smiles wryly from the sidelines.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/trump-says-us-locked-and-loaded-after-saudi-arabia-oil-attack-as-crude-prices-soar-iran-aramco

Russia may use the current crisis to extract concessions from Iran in exchange for its help.

Iran is not a trusted Russian ally and Russia is not really trusted by Iran, but they have deals and they are sticking by them, unlike the US.

Russia is happy with the agreement regarding the Caspian Sea... why risk that to change the deal?

It is generally in Russias interests to help Iran where the US and the west is concerned, because those sanctions the west has on Iran are the same as the ones the west has on other countries including Russia... why would Russia help the US with sanctions against Iran when those same sanctions generally apply to Russia too?

There is no value for Russia in turning on China or Iran to please the west and get a better deal for itself because it is the west and the US that are the problem... Russia has a trading future with China and potentially Iran more so than with the west.

Fighting talk again...as Bolton smiles wryly from the sidelines.

Sounds like a false flag operation he probably signed off on, but it clearly shows how vulnerable oil assets in the region actually are... claims the US forces will be protected by air defence systems is proven a thin argument as these assets were also protected by the same systems...

GarryB wrote:

Russia may use the current crisis to extract concessions from Iran in exchange for its help.

Iran is not a trusted Russian ally and Russia is not really trusted by Iran, but they have deals and they are sticking by them, unlike the US.

Russia is happy with the agreement regarding the Caspian Sea... why risk that to change the deal?

It is generally in Russias interests to help Iran where the US and the west is concerned, because those sanctions the west has on Iran are the same as the ones the west has on other countries including Russia... why would Russia help the US with sanctions against Iran when those same sanctions generally apply to Russia too?

There is no value for Russia in turning on China or Iran to please the west and get a better deal for itself because it is the west and the US that are the problem... Russia has a trading future with China and potentially Iran more so than with the west.

Fighting talk again...as Bolton smiles wryly from the sidelines.

Sounds like a false flag operation he probably signed off on, but it clearly shows how vulnerable oil assets in the region actually are... claims the US forces will be protected by air defence systems is proven a thin argument as these assets were also protected by the same systems...

Iran played crucial role in Aleppo and eastern Syria campaigns between 2016 and 2017. Had it not been for Shahed 129 attack drones the campaigns would have taken years longer due to Russia's continuing lack of attack drones.

I believe that distrust that existed between Russia and Iran that the West enchanted throughout previous years now lay in ruins together with the terrorist in Aleppo and that what we are seeing  now is emergence of the new found trust based on new understanding.

btw its interesting to note how a single 10+ drone attack can put entire kingdom on its knees never mind gazillions of $ in US weapons and talk. I think last day whole West watched in horror what their confidence is based on.

If they continue to lose refining/exporting of oil, it may lead to a regime change in the KSA.

Tsavo Lion wrote:If they continue to lose refining/exporting of oil, it may lead to a regime change in the KSA.

I could think of worse things!!

Chickens always come home to roost after all.

Era of Drones have arrived.
This is one big strategic attack from such cheap and easy weapons.

Their AWACSs either didn't pick them or their AD with Patriots can't deal with such simple CMs.

Tsavo Lion wrote:If they continue to lose refining/exporting of oil, it may lead to a regime change in the KSA.

A number of factors--the Yemen fiasco generally, the Khashoggi affair, the cozying up to bibi's Israel--may deligitimize the KSA monarchy and pave the way for its fall.

Isos wrote:A weired thing is that Trump is asking for proofs to know exactly who launch the attacks. He doesn't seem to believe those early report from its intel.

Or perhaps not....

https://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/military-options-on-the-table-as-us-prepares-response-to-saudi-oil-attack/news-story/0bd2c8c13b95a68045e8bc502266e4f3

A relatively small attack too... imagine if it was repeated against multiple targets at once... these are not billion dollar state of the art systems...

Wonder how long it will take for the west to realise that the Saudis spent a bit more on air defence systems than they did and some of their systems are the sort of thing the west relies on... and how fragile the west actually is to countries that actually have the ability and will to fight back.

Trump Has been Waging a Brutal War on Iran for over a Year, in Alliance with Saudi Arabia & Israel

https://regnum.ru/news/economy/2720325.html

Russia and Iran build powerful alliance countering USA and Saudi Arabia
http://www.pravdareport.com/world/142754-russia_iran/

Isos wrote:

Russia and Iran build powerful alliance countering USA and Saudi Arabia

That's why Putin offered yesterday the S-400 to saudi arabia ?

Putin was just putting some salt on the wound. I wonder for who this offer was more painful. For US or for Saudis?