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    Iran/US situation

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:05 pm

    Meanwhile another Iranian Tanker gets into trouble in Red Sea. Remember this entire Tanker war started with  the first Iranian oil Tanker  " accident " in Red Sea. Tanker taking in water!  This time, they did not say what the technical problem is. This makes it even more suspicious.  Possible that Usrael is attacking . As they warned before, that they will. Remember the Usrael also attacked Syria oil pipe installation secretly in the Med.

    There are problems with Iranian tactics. Recently this giving of ultimatum and time for enemy to attack. And simply enriching uranium as a negotiating tool. They should have kept quiet. Made nukes. And then put some test on TV.

    Building roads takes time. Canals have limited capacity. And even then neither Russia or China business will trade with Iran. The bigger markets and all that. Let alone risk open war with Yanks. Iranians should now build pressure. Since they seem to have sattelite launch capability. And 20% to 99% is a matter of few weaks. And they are not going to display nukes to stop war anyway. Waiting only makes them stronger, and Iran weaker. If they escalate or retaliate massively, they can display nukes then. It was better to gat detterent first. But they are close. Waiting makes no more sense.


    https://en.mehrnews.com/news/149113/Iran-tanker-HELM-breaks-down-in-Red-Sea
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Aug 21, 2019 3:17 pm

    Yeah, Nomadski... you would have to be crazy to actually want a war with the US... they don't play fair and they are nasty censored .

    Even if Iran actually survived they wont actually win... look at them in Syria... even when they lose they are censored .
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    yavar

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    Post  yavar on Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:30 pm

    U.S. and Israel conduct joint Tanker-ship hijacking exercise
    https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5572831,00.html

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Aug 21, 2019 10:42 pm

    Building roads takes time. Canals have limited capacity. And even then neither Russia or China business will trade with Iran.
    Iran, Turkey, Pakistan & Iran r already linked by railroads:
    https://fp.brecorder.com/2019/03/20190319456619/

    China & Pakistan r upgrading their rail network & being linked by a railroad: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/396491-pakistan-china-ink-accord-to-upgrade-railways
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khunjerab_Railway

    India & Pakistan r linked by a railroad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transport_between_India_and_Pakistan#Train_services

    Ships can also sail from Indian to Iranian ports & their cargoes off loaded on trains/trucks to be sent North, even w/o the Caspian-Persian Gulf canal- it would be built & improve transportation later.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:49 pm

    @ GarryB

    If the Yanks simply relied on phone blockade , then perhaps some nations will not pick up the phone. And Iran has enough trade to feed people and defend country or perhaps there is not enough trade even then, and Iran can not feed people or defend itself. In the second case, it is too late for resistance economy or revolutionary Diplomacy. Iran has a choice of accepting defeat or a defensive war that it may win or loose. Deciding in this case is a matter of economic projections. How much trade is needed to earn revenue to feed people and defend country.

    If Yanks rely on hot war blockade, like it appears they are doing now, by sabotage. Then no matter what land or road or rail link exists, they will also hit those as well. Physically destroying them. In this case also the choice is either to accept defeat or go to a defensive war, that Iran may win or loose . The question here is, have Yanks crossed the threshold from phone blockade to real war blockade. If they have, then building bridges alone for them to knock down is no solution. If they have sabotaged Tankers, then it is too late for resistance economy or revolutionary Diplomacy. You have to either accept defeat or go to war.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:54 am

    They want a war... they are deluded and think they are good at war... they spend enormous amounts of money each year to arm and prepare for war... not WWIII, not fighting an equal, but to crush little countries... like Iran... and as much as I would love to see a real war and Iran hand the US its own ass on a plate by sinking some carriers and shooting down some F-35s and launching ballistic missiles at US bases all through the region... and indeed Iraq using the attack as a pretext to kick the US military and civilians out of their country for good, I know a lot of Iranians are going to suffer and die... there are probably quite a few American soldiers who are not assholes and don't deserve to get killed or put in a position to kill people who are defending their own country and would otherwise be not threat at all to the US...

    It is clearly the US and their stooges that are cranking up the pressure but I see the inevidible results of the US doing such things is to alienate themselves and remove themselves even more from civilised society and dominator of international politics...
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:02 pm

    There are apparently two trends in Iran now. The first is one of resistance and possibly a hot war, either direct or indirect with Yanks. This is exemplified by Iran continued support for regional allies and  possibly blowing up the six Saudi and UAE Tankers in response to their initial attack on Iranian Tanker in red Sea  and their active oil over production to sanction Iran oil and hitting yank drone and capturing English Tanker in response to English piracy and continued progress in arms manufacture and sattelite and enrichment. This I believe is correct path.

    The other trend is one of accepting their unjust demands on Iranians and allies. By stopping legitimate political activity under guise of fighting terror, FATF etc. And stopping Iran legitimate trade using international waterways and stopping Iran legitimate defence capability. Building planes and rockets. With final aim of regime change and removing Islamic Republic system and installing Shah and MKO terror group and domestic liberals and establishing themselves in Iran as pre - 1979 revolution. This I believe is wrong path.

    You mention that people will die. Well, if Iranians play cards right, get detterent and impose pacific blockade of yank ships, then there won't be loss of life on any side. But if Iranians need to they can use allies in region also to remove Yanks from region. Many places for this. And you say Iranians will die. I am not sure about this. Russia and China effectively fought the Yanks in cold war, in many places, without loosing any or many troops. By supporting national liberation movements. The Yanks never daring to strike back directly, because of fear of nuclear annihilation. This is the route to victory. If anyone dies, it won't be Iranian troops. As for yank troops,  I believe they have a choice. They can leave military in large numbers. The yank government can not put all of them in prison. They can become objectors to war.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Aug 24, 2019 4:40 am

    Russian involvement options: https://iz.ru/905940/ilia-kramnik/ucheniia-v-zalive-kakim-budet-vzaimodeistvie-rossii-i-irana
    Cyberspec
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    Post  Cyberspec on Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:37 am

    Russia offers Iran sanctions-free oil route to Turkey and Syria
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-opens-new-route-for-iranian-oil-to-skirt-sanctions-k7xqlg386

    ...

    Not sure if this is confirmed...

    #BREAKING: #AdrianDarya1 (#Grace1) is about to meet first of the two empty oilers to transfer 1 million barrels of crude oil to it in Eastern #MediterraneanSea. They will transfer the oil to #Tartus. On order of #Russia, #Turkey's coast guard let the oiler to sail toward #Syria.
    https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1167929360348696576
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:35 am

    Iran's dreams for Israel will remain dreams: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2707558.html

    By the same token, Iran will stop their dreams of Greater Israel & outside sponsored regime change in Iran.
    After getting the Israeli UAV designs, Russia needs Syria & Iran more than she needs Israel.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4PB1NepEQU

    With the S-400 & Su-35/57s, Turkey will be even more capable against Greeks, Arabs & Jews.
    The writing is on the wall, this time for the Jews in the ME. Time to think about a new homeland!


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:54 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Sep 05, 2019 10:49 am

    The writing is on the wall, this time for the Jews in the ME. Time to think about a new homeland!

    You would think they would be much happier in America... their views on gun ownership fit right in...
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:25 am

    Most Jews live in the USA. But I doubt the gov. will allow mass Israeli immigration- the Jews there r of different racial & ethnic background, & only Ashkenazim will have a chance of coming here. Ukraine isn't a good choice IMO, with bad economy, history of pogroms, antisemitism, & ongoing border/civil war.
    The time of Jews in Europe is almost over. So, Canada & Australia r the only safe places with plenty of land left.
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    Post  starman on Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:16 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Most Jews live in the USA. But I doubt the gov. will allow mass Israeli immigration- the Jews there r of different racial & ethnic background, & only Ashkenazim will have a chance of coming here. Ukraine isn't a good choice IMO, with bad economy, history of pogroms, antisemitism, & ongoing border/civil war.
    The time of Jews in Europe is almost over. So, Canada & Australia r the only safe places with plenty of land left.

    Most would sooner fight and die where they are--Masada complex. But talk of eliminating Israel is wildly optimistic or at best premature.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:50 pm

    @ cyberspec

    Good to know that Russia helping Iran with trade routes. Through Caspian canals and Black Sea ports and Turkey. Iran also ready to restart pipeline through Iraq to Syria. Two pipelines. Iran may be able to withstand blockade by resistance economy and trade with Russia and China.

    Regarding this third step. All of you know my view. It is not sufficient detterent. As you see the Yanks and Zionists still increasing pressure of air attacks and capturing Iranian ships. This step by step process of ultimatums and playing with degrees of enrichment and wanting to go back to JCPOA is failed policy.

    The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that only a minimum credible nuclear weapon detterent is sufficient to stop any aggression and blockade by Yanks. Also the time to display such weapons is ideally when this arsenal is ready and not before and at a time when war has started. Such as now.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:35 am

    As I been saying/predicted: China Defies Trump on Iran Big time with $400 bn Belt-and-Road Investment, 5000 PLA Troops
    crod
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    Post  crod on Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:51 am

    Interesting view here on how little an impact Iran can actually inflict on israel.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-03/isaac-ben-israel-says-netanyahu-is-exaggerating-the-iran-threat

    Sorry, on my phone...wrong thread.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:39 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:As I been saying/predicted: China Defies Trump on Iran Big time with $400 bn Belt-and-Road Investment, 5000 PLA Troops

    Russia is mad missing out here and letting China reap the spoils.

    I wonder will the deal involve military equipment?

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/05/chinas-great-game-in-iran/
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:09 am

    Russia is mad missing out here and letting China reap the spoils.
    I doubt it, she'll get her portion of the pie with North-South route rail & canal network. Why she should invest in BRI run by the PRC which has more capital to spend?
    I wonder will the deal involve military equipment?
    if not now, later it will, esp. dual use. Also, when they replace older vehicles, arms, etc., those can be handed down to Iranians.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:47 pm

    It was more, Russia is mad not to adopt the same attitude and bugger the US, get in there and make sales.

    They should try and get 100 SU-34 or Js from China or some local production type agreement.
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:14 pm

    Russia is mad missing out here and letting China reap the spoils.

    I doubt it... there are plenty of contracts to go around... I am sure that Russia is really happy that this time China will take the heat from being on Americas shit list for a change.

    There is risk in any investment and China has plenty of money to invest... if Trump wins the next election he might decide to go for gold and try regime change in Iran... no guts and no glory... remember the original agreement with Iran included the US, the EU, China and Russia, so even if China takes a big chunk of the investments the US and EU have pissed their pants and run away from, there is plenty of potential in Iran for making money... otherwise the EU countries that signed up would have kept in perfect step with the US and dropped out when they did.

    The reality is that there is lots of money to be made in Iran... it is just that the EU companies that can make it make a lot of money in other places where the US being a censored could really badly effect their profits and make things hard.

    For China and Russia... America is doing that anyway because they are not pretending to be allies like they do with Europe.

    I wonder will the deal involve military equipment?

    The Belt and Road programme is not military or political... it is purely for trade routes...

    crod
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    Post  crod on Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:53 pm

    But isn’t only a proportion of that figure going to belt and road with some for oil related infrastructure. Leaves a few bn for other (that’s not really defined).
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:56 pm

    Netanyahu’s Himalayan Miscalculation on Iran: Bringing China into the Mideast
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:46 am

    But isn’t only a proportion of that figure going to belt and road with some for oil related infrastructure. Leaves a few bn for other (that’s not really defined).

    It does not hurt Russia in any way for Iran to trade with China, and both those countries earning money and building ties is good for both countries.

    For Iran, having good relations with two countries with veto rights on the UNSC has benefits, and locking in some trade deals before UN sanctions become an issue again when the whole deal collapses and the EU finally pull out certainly makes sense for Iran and China and Russia.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:54 am

    With Bolton getting the arse from the WH, things might just calm down a bit and take a more sensible path. Perhaps the recent $250bn China deal has the US industry screaming blue murder at the potential loss of $$$. The German and French industrialists have been jumping up and down about missing out because of US sanction threats, particularly as the EU felt that Iran was committed to the agreement and not in breach.
    crod
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    Post  crod on Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:56 am

    Are the cracks are beginning to appear???

    https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-should-follow-independent-policy-on-iran-s-energy-sector-envoy-1568054805469.html
    https://www.india-briefing.com/news/indias-increasing-connectivity-with-central-asia-iran-and-russia-19170.html/

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/10/the-next-u-s-president-should-make-a-new-deal-with-iran-rouhani-khamenei-trump-2020-democrats-jcpoa/

    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/netanyahus-miscalculations-about-iran-and-china-will-cost-him/

    https://www.geo.tv/latest/247085-in-defiance-of-trump-china-to-invest-280bn-into-energy-sector-in-iran (though already reported, the article shows Italy's involvement via third party consultancy)

    The Europeans are screaming blue murder at that fucking idiot - billions of Euros in investment lost because of fucked US f/policy.


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