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    Iran/US situation

    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Tue Jul 23, 2019 10:59 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:They could drop tanks over Iraq.

    Nein. Nein. Nein. Iraq is Shia land. Iraq has good relation with Iran.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:05 pm

    But can Iraq detect & shot them down, esp. with Ks of US troops there?
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    Post  Regular on Wed Jul 24, 2019 2:40 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:They could drop tanks over Iraq. The UAE &/ Azerbaijan also could be staging areas. 4 years ago, there were reports that the US detected IAF activity over Iran & warned Israel to stop that.
    What the hell are you talking about?!
    US is completelly controlled by ziokikes, it would be other way around - Israel telling us what to do.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Jul 24, 2019 3:51 am

    Maybe now, but that was under Obama.
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:32 am

    there were reports that the US detected IAF activity over Iran & warned Israel to stop that.

    And how did the US detect activity?

    And since when has the US ever told Israel to stop anything it was doing?

    Perhaps the USS Stark? And they didn't really stop then either...
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:52 am

    And how did the US detect activity?
    don't know how- but they had ships in the Arabian Gulf/Sea & access to radars/AWACS in Turkey/Kuwait/Saudi Arabia/Bahrain/Qatar/UAE, not to mention in Afghanistan. The US would be stupid not to monitor Iran's & Israeli airspace while Israel was training its AF for long range strike & threatening Iran.
    And since when has the US ever told Israel to stop anything it was doing? Perhaps the USS Stark?
    Obama was no big friend of Israel & didn't plan to get dragged into war on its behalf with Iran. The USS Stark was attacked mistakenly by the Iraqi AF.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Wed Jul 24, 2019 12:20 pm


    War is difficult. People don't want to think about it. So they delude themselves, that there will be peace. And those that prefer slavery to honour, say there will never be war. They will gather their ill gotten gains and escape to Europe at the first sign of a war. They claim there is no war now. That the enemy can not attack. Will not attack. They still rely on the enemy to be their friend. Rely on them for critical infrastructure. For redesign of atomic power stations.

    But what if war is inevitable? What if it has nothing to do with who is or is not in power in USA or UK? And this is the great truth? What do Iranians need to do now? Do they need to send envoys of peace? And promise not to misbehave in Hormuz? While brave soldiers fight the invaders? Do they need to drag their feet, and play with degree of enrichment? Do they stop developing ICBM, because Yanks do not like it?

    Or do they keep silent and build the nukes and ICBM. Then close Hormuz, as they promised. And stop confusing the people and the enemy. Stop giving conflicting signals. Until US sanctions lifted. No other way possible. In a few weeks or months, either they act or accept defeat. Either strike or be stricken.

    https://en.mehrnews.com/news/148027/Iran-warns-Brazil-over-stranded-ship-barred-from-refueling
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Jul 25, 2019 12:45 am

    don't know how- but they had ships in the Arabian Gulf/Sea & access to radars/AWACS in Turkey/Kuwait/Saudi Arabia/Bahrain/Qatar/UAE, not to mention in Afghanistan. The US would be stupid not to monitor Iran's & Israeli airspace while Israel was training its AF for long range strike & threatening Iran.

    So they are saying stupid Iranians and Russians can't detect or track F-35, but they can track them at will from thousands of kms away with their ships?

    OK...

    Obama was no big friend of Israel & didn't plan to get dragged into war on its behalf with Iran. The USS Stark was attacked mistakenly by the Iraqi AF.

    I meant the USS Liberty... and there was no mistake in that attack...
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:25 am

    GarryB wrote:So they are saying stupid Iranians and Russians can't detect or track F-35, but they can track them at will from thousands of kms away with their ships?
    That was before, around 2014, the IAF got F-35s operational. They have their F-15s with drop tanks & F-16s with conformal fuel tanks. When they bombed the reactor in Syria in 2007, its AD was fooled by EW means. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Outside_the_Box

    Xi was adamant; Beijing will keep developing ties with Tehran “no matter how the situation changes”. Iran is a key node of the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). ..
    Iran is at the heart of the BRI-SCO-EAEU integration road map – the nuts and bolts of Eurasian integration. Russia and China cannot allow Iran to be strangled. Iran boasts fabulous energy reserves, a huge internal market, and is a frontline state fighting complex networks of opium, weapons and jihadi smuggling – all key concerns for SCO member states.

    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/06/article/iran-at-the-center-of-the-eurasian-riddle/



    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Thu Jul 25, 2019 6:38 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add a quote)
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Fri Jul 26, 2019 9:15 am


    And what of this reported invite by Iranian president to participate in legal dialogue with UK and USA? And what of the response to this invite by UK and USA? The Iranian leader said, no war and no negotiation. But there is war and negotiation. In fact war with negotiation. The response by UK, at least as far as we can be certain is the announcement that ships will be escorted in Persian Gulf. And Pompeo said, he will travel to Iran to tell them how bad their leadership (supreme leader) is to Iran. Regime change. Yet the media in Iran lie. They simply say, he will visit. Will government too, lie? How far will the reformist take this? How much will they lie? All communication with the enemy, must be made public. No place to hide.
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    Post  yavar on Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:11 pm




    FOX NEWS U.S. afficals aying Iran Test ‘fires ballistic missile 1,000km
    AlfaT8
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Fri Jul 26, 2019 5:24 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    don't know how- but they had ships in the Arabian Gulf/Sea & access to radars/AWACS in Turkey/Kuwait/Saudi Arabia/Bahrain/Qatar/UAE, not to mention in Afghanistan. The US would be stupid not to monitor Iran's & Israeli airspace while Israel was training its AF for long range strike & threatening Iran.

    So they are saying stupid Iranians and Russians can't detect or track F-35, but they can track them at will from thousands of kms away with their ships?

    OK...

    Forget that, the Iranians detected and hacked an RQ-170 who's stealth capabilities should more than match that of the F-35.
    So this report, coming from flippin Kuwait of all places, just looks like absolute nonsense.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Jul 26, 2019 8:53 pm

    AlfaT8 wrote:
    GarryB wrote:
    don't know how- but they had ships in the Arabian Gulf/Sea & access to radars/AWACS in Turkey/Kuwait/Saudi Arabia/Bahrain/Qatar/UAE, not to mention in Afghanistan. The US would be stupid not to monitor Iran's & Israeli airspace while Israel was training its AF for long range strike & threatening Iran.

    So they are saying stupid Iranians and Russians can't detect or track F-35, but they can track them at will from thousands of kms away with their ships?

    OK...

    Forget that, the Iranians detected and hacked an RQ-170 who's stealth capabilities should more than match that of the F-35.
    So this report, coming from flippin Kuwait of all places, just looks like absolute nonsense.

    Tsavo is spreading fake news again. None of that happened.

    And as you said, stealthier RQ-170 was detected and hacked by Iran with old P-18 radar helping.

    F-35 is a joke. Remember the image of the Su-35 that grabbed from it's irst? And they didn't just "happen to fly by each other".
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:20 pm


    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.dw.com/en/eu-mechanism-for-trade-with-iran-now-operational/a-49407662


    The problem with nuclear deal, is not that no financial mechanism exists for trade like INSTEX. The problem is that businesses are risk averse. And in a hostile political climate, then business does not operate. Here despite the EU declaring INSTEX, to be operational. The UK has failed to repay debts to Iran, despite earlier court ruling. Citing the sanctions as a reason for non - payment. Giving a man a spoon and empty plate, will not feed him. JCPOA is dead and INSTEX is dead. You can not return to JCPOA, since it never existed. You can not bring dead back to life. New conditions must be created. By Iran. Balance of risk must change in favour of Iran. Only way.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/the-mod-the-arms-deal-and-a-30-year-old-bill-for-pound400m-1952972.html%3famp
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:42 am

    There is a whole world out there that is not part of the west that doesn't like the wests demands and rules... Iran needs to find them and develop trade links and grow that way. They wont grow as fast as they would if the west was friendly, but such rapid growth is rarely healthy anyway...
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    Post  nomadski on Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:47 pm

    Yes. Alternative economic system. Separate from world economy. The banking monopoly of European and world Bank. Has advantages. The 2008 financial crash. Was not noticed in Iran. Because of isolation. Quarantine.  Fiscal autonomy. Free of Dollar. On much happier note, today Iran announced stockpile of HEU, to be 24 Tons. How many 10 kg, warhead does that make........Thank you.

    https://en.mehrnews.com/news/148157/Iran-s-uranium-enrichment-at-24-tons-after-JCPOA-Salehi

    I read today, UK maybe interested in Tanker swap. Like swap shop. But they may have said English Tanker to be released first. Best plan is simultaneous release to original destination, accompanied by respective ship from each country navy. For Iran to Syria or Italy or Greece. For England to Saudi.
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Jul 29, 2019 3:09 am

    Clearly what Iran therefore needs to do is capture 3-4 hundred other oil tankers and demand the removal of sanctions for each release... geeze the UK are dicks.
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Mon Jul 29, 2019 5:11 am

    It's like Tony Blair never left. Laughing
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:22 am


    @GarryB

    "......... Clearly what Iran therefore needs to do is capture 3-4 hundred other oil tankers and demand the removal of sanctions for each release... geeze the UK are dicks........."

    Agree. Just stop English and American ships. Then they stop Iranian ships. No problem. Iran now only export 250000 BPD to China. This can be done through river Tanker in Caspian to cental Asia. Then by road or rail to China. Using 200 road Tankers. Doable. Rest of trade also goes north to Russia. Use canal system or road system to Europe or rest of world. Russia help prioritise Iranian bulk cargo through canal and road.

    Russia and Iran China put pressure this way. Break up EU and NATO. Russia help with air defence of southern oil field in Iran.  Close Hormuz for two months. They are defeated. Is Putin and Khamenei listening to me?
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    Post  yavar on Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:04 pm

    Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guards Crops Navy (IRGCN) has released audio and aerial video ( UAV) of its naval forces’ warnings to a England Navy warship Montrose (F-236) to stay out of their way, during an operation to seize England-flagged oil tanker Stena Impero
    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/07/29/602137/Iran-UK-IRGC-Radio-f236


    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:29 pm


    https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=KLJAXfeGFZiEhbIPksmw8As&q=run+away+monty+python+youtube&oq=run+away+monty+python+youtube&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.3..0i22i30.20796.27731..29304...0.0..0.168.1300.1j9......0....1.........0i71j35i39j33i160j0.o7nTvIxDp08




    Funny how the UK marines, used brute force against unarmed Tanker crew of Grace - 1. Forcing them to kneel and pointing guns at them ! But faced with Iranian navy, they run away.!



    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_air_campaign

    Thinking about when to stop all English and yank ship in Persian Gulf. Apart from the answer ASAP. Or when Iran gets some ICBM and nukes as detterent. The answer is, when it can also repel an air attack by yank and England. For a period of two months. An estimated time for oil embargo on them, to cripple them. In this calculation, we also assume that the aircraft carriers will not survive to return to USA, and that even if they do, the time taken for return journey is two months. In this time, they have lost the war. Crippled from lack of oil. We assume one carrier load of aircraft for duration of war.

    During first war against Saddam 1991, the Yanks and English together had 1800 attack planes. With Saudi this was over 2000. But in Iran case we assume they won't be in the fight. These planes flew from Saudi. But now they can only fly from aircraft carrier. We assume four aircraft carries. Or approx 400 aircraft. Able to fly.

    The probability of kill for modern SAM, is about 30 %. This means Iran needs over 1000 SAM , to defeat this threat. But if Saudi allows use of airfield. Then to defeat this threat,  of 2000 planes, by SAM, force alone. Iran needs about 7000 SAM. And this will cost some Rials.

    Similarly we can work out, probability of kill for anti - ship missiles, torpedo and SSBM and anti - ship aircraft. Work out numbers needed and costs. Once we reach a point where we can take out their aircraft. Even if in large numbers based in Saudi. Then we can put blockade against their oil and cripple them. Without getting too much damage ourselves. Of course we also need reserves to run the country, for this period. Since we have no oil revenue. That is how we decide, when to go on offensive.


    https://forums.spacebattles.com/threads/probability-of-kill-success-rate-of-sams-before-now-future.488141/


    Last edited by nomadski on Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:15 pm; edited 6 times in total
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:34 pm

    Black Sea Fleet heading for the Persian Gulf,
    plan joint maneuvers in the Caspian and Indian Ocean
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:52 pm

    Good for morale. But Iranians will want to stop shipping. I hope they practice this manouver!


    https://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13980509000961

    And other ( orbital ) manouvers.!

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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Aug 03, 2019 8:45 pm

    Trump pushes Moscow and Tehran to a military-strategic alliance
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2680263.html
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    Post  nomadski on Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:29 pm


    Russia wins in Iran, because it gives a better deal than the Yanks. The Yanks drop bombs, remove national governments, keep dictator in power, put sanctions, keep country dependent in military or defence. Russia should do none of the above. It can start by helping the Iranian revolutionary guard missile defence, to develop better rocket propulsion and guidance. If Iran can not be attacked, then it can not be sacked. Our old comrades in Moscow can understand, helping national and progressive elements in Iran. To stand up to Yanks attack.

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