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    Iran/US tensions

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue May 14, 2019 12:35 am

    Washington regime has no standing army.
    The US Army, except perhaps its SOFs, won't get involved; USN/AF/MC will, & they r not standing still & move a lot.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-iran-tensions-a-look-at-us-deployment-across-mideast/
    https://news.usni.org/2019/05/10/uss-arlington-patriot-missiles-to-join-lincoln-carrier-strike-group-in-middle-east
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Tue May 14, 2019 3:34 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Washington regime has no standing army.
    The US Army, except perhaps its SOFs, won't get involved; USN/AF/MC will, & they r not standing still & move a lot.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-iran-tensions-a-look-at-us-deployment-across-mideast/
    https://news.usni.org/2019/05/10/uss-arlington-patriot-missiles-to-join-lincoln-carrier-strike-group-in-middle-east

    Obama backed off bombing Syria in 2013 due to Russia showing its muscle in the Mediterranean.   I don't see why Trump will attack Iran once Russia
    deploys a fleet of missile boats to the south Caspian.   Russia can even deploy to the Persian Gulf, but it does not need to.   It can deploy air assets
    to Iranian air bases.  

    America will not start a nuclear war over Iran.   It had much better chances to attack in the last 20 years.   It is in a much weaker
    military position today relatively speaking.   If I was Putin I would openly supply supersonic anti-ship missiles to Iran even if it already has variants.  
    If Russia is prepared to sell S-400 systems to Turkey, then it should be willing to sell them to Iran.  

    I am getting sick and tired of the brain dead NATO propaganda about how Iran "cannot be allowed to get a nuclear bomb".   Why?
    Where is the panic of the lunatics in Pakistan getting one?     How about the Saudi program to build nuclear technology capacity which
    is actually assisted by the USA.   Yeah, the moderate Shi'ites are a "threat" but the lunatic Wahabbi Sunnis are not.   Intellectually
    insulting excrement passing off as argument.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue May 14, 2019 4:04 am

    I am getting sick and tired of the brain dead NATO propaganda about how Iran "cannot be allowed to get a nuclear bomb". Why?
    So that the US & Israel have a free reign in the ME.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Tue May 14, 2019 11:08 am

    So that the US & Israel have a free reign in the ME.

    Love the irony because the two things that dramatically boosted the role of Iran in the region was one, the destruction of Saddam and his Baathist party and sunni power in the country, which led directly to the shia majority to defacto take power via the ballot box, but that left a lot of dissillusioned Sunni former Saddam officers in the area with no future in the actual army of the region and no chance in politics either so they formed what turned in to ISIS... which the US and Israel supported in Syria because it had the potential to overthrow Assad and why should they care about their ally to the north who didn't want instability in Syria.
    And two their anti assad attempt at a coloured arab spring that led to Syria relying on Russia and Iran for survival against well equipped and supported enemies.

    Result of US actions made Iran important in Syria and Iraq... well done there...
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    yavar

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    Post  yavar on Tue May 14, 2019 2:54 pm

    Saudi Arabia confirms oil Aramco's sites targeted UAV

    Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih as saying that between 6-6.30am on Tuesday, a petroleum pumping station supplying an east-west pipeline between the Eastern Province and to the Yanbu Port on the Red Sea was targeted by drones
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/saudi-arabia-says-oil-stations-attacked-by-explosive-laden-drones.
    https://www.dawn.com/news/1482252/saudi-arabia-say-oil-giant-aramcos-sites-targeted



    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x78akai
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Tue May 14, 2019 3:53 pm

    @Miamimachineshop


    The yanks will not deploy ground troops . They have hardly deployed ground troops since Libya.  They hope they will not deploy air troops . Sending drones . They hoped they did not have to go this far in Iran . Opting to pick up the phone and impose a blockade . Wait until the frog slowly cooks . They did not  count on a retaliation by Iran . A hot war . As you said they are not ready to win the hot  war in Iran . But they just want to cause destruction from afar.  Without the US mainland being hit . Any war , will be over  there . As Trump said . If Saudi or Usraeli are hit , then yanks will win contracts and go repair . But Iranians will have hard time repairing .Same as when Saddam hit wells . A bit of drama soon over and finished . So Iran must :

    ( 1 ) Develop some ICBM .  Put a few in major city in US . With conventional warhead .

    ( 2 ) Put an atmospheric  nuke test on TV  . Carried out in Indian Oceans.

    ( 3 ) Close persian Gulf . And see the world go to buck .

    See , if we die , we go to paradise and get seventy virgins . If Trumpet  dies , he goes to hell to be tortured by the seventy whores , he robbed on Earth . So we can push the button . He can not .
    MiamiMachineShop
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    Post  MiamiMachineShop on Tue May 14, 2019 4:03 pm

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html

    If they are to invade, thats how they will do it
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Tue May 14, 2019 4:32 pm

    MiamiMachineShop wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html

    If they are to invade, thats how they will do it

    Deploying 120 000 troops takes lot of time. Iran can attackfirst then.

    Three main targets will be attacked in the opening days with ballistic missiles.

    First, US bases and ships.

    Second, gulf oil production.

    Third, tankers and pipelines.

    If US manage to invade, 120 000 troops won't be enough at all. They will always be in range of scud d type missiles just like in iraq wars but iraqis had very bad missiles. Iran has thousand of kornet type atgm which will be as good as houti's ones against abrams and other humvee and they are 70 million people for guerilla war.

    They also have manpads to keep away air support like a-10 and choppers. Their air defences won't last long enough to be an issue however.

    IMO, Iranian should be very mobile and very well equiped with atgm's, manpads and anti armor snipers. GPS jammers for everyone. Lasers pointed on the ground around major infrastructure in the hope to make laser guided bombs follow the wrong laser. Huge barrages of BM on oil field and US bases will destroy some economies.

    Its navy should be used the first day quickly and in big numbers to achieve at least one carrier destroyed and its subs could destroy some ships too. All the tankers in the persian gulf will be destroyed.

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed May 15, 2019 9:11 am

    The key is not to sit back and wait for the Americans to get ready and invade... hit the assembly areas and bases in the region... and also support opposition to US forces in neighbouring states and encourage them to act at the same time to cause distractions... at the very least it would be a good time to make some gains for them.

    Use decoys extensively and talk to friendly foreign professionals about what can be seen from space so you don't waste your time...
    jhelb
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    Post  jhelb on Wed May 15, 2019 11:23 am

    GarryB wrote:... hit the assembly areas and bases in the region...

    How can Iran do that ? The moment they hit the assembly areas & bases, the US will declare war on them.
    starman
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    Post  starman on Wed May 15, 2019 11:50 am

    kvs wrote:
     Only brain dead NATO fanbois would swallow the excrement that an Iranian nuclear
    program is some sort of aggression.    It is pure defense against the nuclear armed Israel.... 

    It attests to the efficacy of zionist propaganda that most people don't realize this. They focus on the Iranian program which might produce a n-bomb or two, while ignoring the 100-200 nuclear bombs Israel has already.
    starman
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    Post  starman on Wed May 15, 2019 11:54 am

    Isos wrote:
    Iran has thousand of kornet type atgm which will be as good as houti's ones against abrams and other humvee....

    Can we be sure? Wouldn't the US equip its armor with the Trophy or a similar system?
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed May 15, 2019 1:47 pm

    How can Iran do that ? The moment they hit the assembly areas & bases, the US will declare war on them.

    If they are moving 120,000 men into the region do you think it is best to attack first or to wait until they are ready and send in their aircraft and cruise missiles to soften up the Iranian defences?

    They could call it pre-emptive self defence...

    It attests to the efficacy of zionist propaganda that most people don't realize this. They focus on the Iranian program which might produce a n-bomb or two, while ignoring the 100-200 nuclear bombs Israel has already.

    Which actually undermines Israels position even further.

    If Israel needs all those nukes "in case Arab or Persian States get nuclear weapons" then why all these attacks on the various so called nuclear weapons programmes.

    I mean if Israel is going to attack countries for developing nuclear weapons, then they really don't need any nukes for themselves at all...

    Can we be sure? Wouldn't the US equip its armor with the Trophy or a similar system?

    If trophy is as ineffective as their air defence missiles seem to be they could simply overwhelm them with numbers... firing Kornet equivalents from 6km range should give them a good chance of defeating armour while minimising the effectiveness of return fire.

    Of course once in close combat systems like RPGs and Metis and TOW equivalent like shorter range weapons will also be effective against all their vehicle types... especially IFVS and APCs like Bradleys and Strykers... not to mention their use against helicopters... Kornet vs Apache would be interesting as DIRCMs wont stop them...

    jhelb
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    Post  jhelb on Wed May 15, 2019 2:29 pm

    nomadski wrote:See , if we die , we go to paradise and get seventy virgins . If Trumpet  dies , he goes to hell to be tortured by the seventy whores , he robbed on Earth . So we can push the button . He can not .

    In order to learn about a country, nomadski, I generally rely on the knowledge/wisdom of local people. So I was trying to find some Iranian views on the evolving situation in Mid East.

    Surprisingly, some Iranian writers state that Iranians have a very high opinion about the US & many Iranians migrate to the US. They were giving example of Iranian-Americans who are highly successful, billionaires in the US. For instance the current CEO of Uber.

    Is it true, that Iranians look at US favorably ? Which countries do Iranians consider as their allies /friends ?

    Walther von Oldenburg
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Wed May 15, 2019 3:00 pm

    I think any invasion force vs Iran would need to be at least the size of 1991 coalition, i.e. 500k+ troops.  It isn't Saddam's army that US is dealing with.  

    Remember how well Hezbollah - that had a few thousand troops at that time - fared against IDF in 2006? I have no reason to believe Iranian army fighting in Iran would perform any worse.

    Such an invasion ofc would take months to prepare. For that time, an Il-76 with cutting edge weaponry would be landing in Tehran every few hours.

    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Wed May 15, 2019 3:55 pm

    starman wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    Iran has thousand of kornet type atgm which will be as good as houti's ones against abrams and other humvee....

    Can we be sure? Wouldn't the US equip its armor with the Trophy or a similar system?

    Mostly tanks will be equiped with that if they ever equip them. Other vehicles will be easy targets and much more valuable ones. Tanks without the support of IFV are useless.

    A hit of kornet on a humvee transporting 8 troops will kill many of them.

    Trophy can be destroyed by snipers or machine guns fire on radars too.

    They can also make suicide drones for top attack where aps can't do anything.

    How can Iran do that ? The moment they hit the assembly areas & bases, the US will declare war on them.

    The thing is that if UD send 120 thousand troops it only means war is ongoing so Iran is free to attack.

    2 ballistic missiles with 600-800kg warhead on every totally unprotected secondary US bases will make huge loses to US. Specially in Iraq. Those bases are concentrations of GIs protected only against farmers with ak-47.

    Main bases will be targeted by hundreds of missiles.
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    Post  yavar on Wed May 15, 2019 3:57 pm

    Iran President Rouhani publicly announced U.S government diplomatic Phone numbers for compensation with U.S President passed by Swiss embassy

    White House passes phone number to Swiss, in case Iran wants to call
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/10/politics/white-house-iran-phone-number/index.html





    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x78e7cr
    jhelb
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    Post  jhelb on Wed May 15, 2019 4:19 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Remember how well Hezbollah - that had a few thousand troops at that time - fared against IDF in 2006? I have no reason to believe Iranian army fighting in Iran would perform any worse.

    Unfortunately I don't remember the details but Israel has overwhelming technological superiority over Hamas.


    Isos wrote:
    2 ballistic missiles with 600-800kg warhead on every totally unprotected secondary US bases will make huge loses to US. Specially in Iraq. Those bases are concentrations of GIs protected only against farmers with ak-47.

    Main bases will be targeted by hundreds of missiles.

    Iran doesn't have hundreds of missiles and the moment they follow what you said ( launch 2 BM on US bases) they will face a few hundred US Ballistic and cruise missiles.
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    Post  Isos on Wed May 15, 2019 5:05 pm


    Iran doesn't have hundreds of missiles and the moment they follow what you said ( launch 2 BM on US bases) they will face a few hundred US Ballistic and cruise missiles.

    They have.

    Their goal won't be to win the war. They will be destroyed anyway. Their actual army is pathetic compared to even iraqi army back in the 90s. No tanks, no modern airforce, local air defense ... their only hope is to succeed in ballistic missile attacks and guerillas if US send troops.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed May 15, 2019 5:19 pm

    Isos wrote:

    Iran doesn't have hundreds of missiles and the moment they follow what you said ( launch 2 BM on US bases) they will face a few hundred US Ballistic and cruise missiles.

    They have.

    Their goal won't be to win the war. They will be destroyed anyway. Their actual army is pathetic compared to even iraqi army back in the 90s. No tanks, no modern airforce, local air defense ... their only hope is to succeed in ballistic missile attacks and guerillas if US send troops.

    ?

    What?

    Iran has way more of an airforce than Iraq had. Majority of Iraq's military was destroyed during the Kuwait war. Iraq had little in the means of fighting back.

    Local air defenses are much more advanced than what Iraq had since Iraq relied on 100% imported while Iran can produce majority of what they need - its all about logistics and keeping up. In terms of ballistic missiles, Iran has more than enough to destroy multiple US bases and inflict massive casualties. As for their armored forces, they are more modern than Iraq's and a lot of it is localized upgrades. Plus they produce their own ATGM's and MANPADS. With Iran being rather very mountainous, they would cause havok on US forces. No, they wouldn't win 1 on 1. But they have enough to cause so much damage that it would possibly cause mass discontent within the US.
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Wed May 15, 2019 5:42 pm

    Do you even know how many missiles Iran has? It's SHITTONS. Expect several hundred US dead even before the first US soldier steps a foot on Iranian soil.

    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Wed May 15, 2019 6:14 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:[
    Iran has way more of an airforce than Iraq had.  Majority of Iraq's military was destroyed during the Kuwait war.  Iraq had little in the means of fighting back.

    Local air defenses are much more advanced than what Iraq had since Iraq relied on 100% imported while Iran can produce majority of what they need - its all about logistics and keeping up.  In terms of ballistic missiles, Iran has more than enough to destroy multiple US bases and inflict massive casualties.  As for their armored forces, they are more modern than Iraq's and a lot of it is localized upgrades.  Plus they produce their own ATGM's and MANPADS.  With Iran being rather very mountainous, they would cause havok on US forces.  No, they wouldn't win 1 on 1.  But they have enough to cause so much damage that it would possibly cause mass discontent within the US.

    Iran air force sucks. F-14 are well known by US since it's their own plane. The rest are junk. Migs won't be better than in serbia or iraq, mirage f1 were easy targets for old f-14 and no one knows if they can sustain military operations. F-5 are a joke.

    What can they produce ? Air def systems ? Even China begs for russian hardware to copy it and you think Iran can develop alone such systems. Their tanks will never see US vehicles.

    Their only hope is the ballistic missiles and the 3 kilos.

    Manpads and atgms use will be only when US destroy all the country's economic, political and military targets. At the end their country will look like iraq in 2004. But this time US won't stay there, they will just blow up everything.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed May 15, 2019 6:18 pm

    GarryB wrote:If Israel needs all those nukes "in case Arab or Persian States get nuclear weapons" then why all these attacks on the various so called nuclear weapons programmes.
    I mean if Israel is going to attack countries for developing nuclear weapons, then they really don't need any nukes for themselves at all...
    No, they need nukes in case of a 6-Day War replay with 5 Arab nations + Iran potentially overwhelming their defenses. Also, chemical & bio WMD r easier to procure/use & could be resorted to in a war against Israel if all else fails.
    I don't think there'l be a large ground US invasion of Iran- they failed in Iraq & Afghanistan which r smaller by both area & population. Some areas in Iran r even worse than in Afghanistan:
    Throughout the 60-day march through the desert, Alexander lost at least 12,000 soldiers, in addition to countless livestock, camp followers, and most of his baggage train. Some historians say he lost three-quarters of his army to the harsh desert conditions along the way. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gedrosia#History
    https://www.livius.org/sources/content/arrian/anabasis/alexander-in-the-gedrosian-desert/
    What can they produce?
    They recently built mini-subs & a warship: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/iran-building-its-own-submarines-torpedoes-the-us-navy-cant-21091
    https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/36662

    [/quote]


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    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Wed May 15, 2019 7:00 pm

    They recently built mini-subs & a warship:

    You mean subs that can only be used inside of hormuz strait if there is no US helicopter to hunt them and a missile boat.

    Good luck doing anything with that.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed May 15, 2019 7:09 pm

    They can lay mines, deploy SF & blow up oil wells, shore targets &/ tankers, not only in the strait, just like NK subs. They also have them in the Caspian- if USN uses Azeri access to it, they'll have some means to resist. Other navies with interests to defend may get involved in assisting in the waters around Iran.

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