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    Iran/US situation

    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Fri May 24, 2019 11:54 pm

    Looks like its been whittled down to around 900 and some are already there.

    Acting Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan notified Congress on Friday that he had authorized a request from U.S. Central Command to send the additional forces – an Air Force fighter jet squadron, an engineering element and combination of manned and unmanned intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets – into the Middle East, he said in a statement. The Pentagon will also extend the deployment of some 600 soldiers from a Patriot missile battalion already serving in the region.


    https://www.stripes.com/pentagon-to-deploy-another-900-troops-to-middle-east-extend-patriot-missile-battalion-amid-tensions-with-iran-1.582792
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat May 25, 2019 12:53 am

    It's part of a gradual buildup, & it won't end there.
    They plan a long campaign & expect retaliation, hence civilian dependents evacuation from Iraq & deployment of more Patriot SAMs.
    The CSG in the Med. Sea can also strike Iranians in Syria & Iran itself, despite Iraq objections. It can also move into the Red Sea & strike across Saudi Arabia. SSGNs r also on their way or already in the theater. In the long term, as a side effect, Saudi Arabia may also be split &/ have a regime change.
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    Post  GarryB on Sat May 25, 2019 3:14 am

    Lots of cocky people on this forum and in the US government and media who think this is going to be a walk over and that all they have to do is attack a couple of targets and it will be all over is amusing.

    Can I suggest that any air attack will probably be a stealth aircraft attack so they can show off those planes that cost so many trillions of dollars (F-35 1.5 trillion, and F-22 and B-2 at least half a trillion each so we are looking at more than 2.5 trillion there)... what happens if a long wave radar or other platform detects something and a Pantsir battery in the right place is used to engage aircraft optically... imagine the shit storm if one or more stealth aircraft gets shot down... this is an enormous risk for the US and would be enormous pressure on their planners to get this right...

    The Iranians are not stupid and will have worked out which likely targets will get attacked...

    They don't need to take down the entire US AF... just one or more stealth aircraft would do fine...

    And they already took down a US stealth drone... a super secret one at that... how did they even know it was there... it was stealthy too after all.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat May 25, 2019 3:43 am





    Iraq & Russia will benefit from high oil prices after many Saudi Arabian, Qatari & UAE oil sites/tankers will be destroyed by Iran in retaliation.
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    Post  crod on Sat May 25, 2019 6:29 am

    GarryB wrote:Lots of cocky people on this forum and in the US government and media who think this is going to be a walk over and that all they have to do is attack a couple of targets and it will be all over is amusing.

    Can I suggest that any air attack will probably be a stealth aircraft attack so they can show off those planes that cost so many trillions of dollars (F-35 1.5 trillion, and F-22 and B-2 at least half a trillion each so we are looking at more than 2.5 trillion there)... what happens if a long wave radar or other platform detects something and a Pantsir battery in the right place is used to engage aircraft optically... imagine the shit storm if one or more stealth aircraft gets shot down... this is an enormous risk for the US and would be enormous pressure on their planners to get this right...

    The Iranians are not stupid and will have worked out which likely targets will get attacked...

    They don't need to take down the entire US AF... just one or more stealth aircraft would do fine...

    And they already took down a US stealth drone... a super secret one at that... how did they even know it was there... it was stealthy too after all.

    Hope to christ you're on the money mate - I truly do. They're such a big unknown in so many ways but I have to agree with you, 1) the yanks would be mad to do this and 2) the Iranians are not stupid and i think they have some capable people, just how capable when the chips are down is the Q for me.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun May 26, 2019 12:37 am

    Why does the US actually provoke Iran
    The Invisible War of Washington and Moscow for the European Energy Markets https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2635038.html

    Not Intimidated by US Military Deployment
    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-05/25/c_138087147.htm
    https://www.juancole.com/2019/05/their-country-military.html

    Oman Trying to Reduce US-Iran Tensions: FM Tweet

    http://www.arabnews.com/node/1501476/middle-east

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun May 26, 2019 4:43 am


    Hope to christ you're on the money mate - I truly do. They're such a big unknown in so many ways but I have to agree with you, 1) the yanks would be mad to do this and 2) the Iranians are not stupid and i think they have some capable people, just how capable when the chips are down is the Q for me.

    The Yank politicians are stupid idiots... the problem is that the people doing the planning are not, though they are not perfect.

    One of the supposed contributing factors in the F-117 being shot down in Kosovo was that it never varied its flight plan... but that excuse is so weak... I have a bus timetable so I know when a bus is supposed to come past my house... if I could not see or hear it how could I shoot the bus driver?

    Knowing the time table narrows down the time I need to fire to get a hit but no where near enough to be useful.

    Equally the whole organisation of the US as a military power gave the Russians the Crimea and cut away the Ukraine which will always be a money sink for whomever wants to claim her as their ally...

    Iran has started exiting the agreement now, so when they are out they can develop nuclear weapons... if trump gets reelected he can decide whether things are better now or not because his two choices are to attack or renegotiate a new treaty, but I can't see Iran being interested in the latter because he has already ripped up an agreement... why bother with another one he might rip up the next day... why bother with any agreements with the US?

    The irony is that Iran is no friend of anyone to be honest, but it invested a lot of money into Boeing and Airbus because they clearly thought it would improve their position... it clearly didn't.

    Wonder if they will now move towards Russia and China...
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Sun May 26, 2019 6:11 am

    Honestly it's all in the air.

    But i just don't see the U.S investing in another massive war anytime soon.

    As for Iran, they really need to make up their damned minds, attempts at a closer relation with the U.S and friends is not only a categorical waste of time, but has also proven to get these countries bombed faster, Libya anyone?

    Strangest thing is, that given the situation, why hasn't Iran tried to import more weaponry from China, i know there's some sudo embargo that's preventing them from openly buying from Russia, but i don't recall China being part of that, so where are all the HQ-9s, J-11s and J-10s??
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun May 26, 2019 6:28 am

    The irony is that Iran is no friend of anyone..
    Several countries in Africa, Asia & L. America can be called their friends, with Algeria, S. Africa, Indonesia, India, China, NK, Cuba, & Venezuela among them:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Iran#Africa
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuba%E2%80%93Iran_relations#Trade
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93North_Korea_relations#Military_weapons
    https://www.newsweek.com/iran-defends-venezuela-all-options-oil-1414237

    Turkey & Russia cooperate with Iran in Syria- w/o those Shiite fighters Iran sponsors, there would've been be more Turkish & Russian casualties there.
    Other nations r not close friends or neutral. Egypt is a case in point.
    Their only enemies r Saudi Arabia, Israel, & the US. The 1st 2 won't be able to contribute much to any big fight & that why they need the US to kick in the doors.
    ..where are all the HQ-9s, J-11s and J-10s??
    With low oil prices & economic strangulation by the US, Iran doesn't have the $ to buy them. Besides, they want to develop & produce their own aircraft.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun May 26, 2019 6:33 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add text)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun May 26, 2019 9:24 am

    Strangest thing is, that given the situation, why hasn't Iran tried to import more weaponry from China, i know there's some sudo embargo that's preventing them from openly buying from Russia, but i don't recall China being part of that, so where are all the HQ-9s, J-11s and J-10s??

    The Chinese were part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action... it was an agreement between the five permanent members of the UNSC... plus Germany, and the EU that signed it... so the US, the UK, France, China and Russia, plus Germany and the EU all signed it and agreed to it together with Iran.

    The US pulled out and while the other members (ie EU) claim they are sticking to it politically, their companies are pulling out to avoid sanctions from the US, effectively breaking the contract as far as Iran is concerned... if the EU does not hold up its end of the bargain there is little point in Iran sticking to its commitments...

    Several countries in Africa, Asia & L. America can be called their friends, with Algeria, S. Africa, Indonesia, India, China, NK, Cuba, & Venezuela among them

    Sadly there is a lot of confusion about what a friend is... a friend will stand up for a friend without needing to be asked to... those countries might be trading partners and have no hidden agenda in their relations with Iran, but none of them have leaped to the defence of Iran... but then at country level real friends are thin on the ground most of the time... and lets say your list of their friends could double as the wests shit list of countries it just does not like or get on with because they wont do as they are told... currently with the west and in particular the US controlling international trade organisations and structures it costs money and income to be part of that group so it is really unpopular... but let me let you in on a secret... with a change to a unipolar world where no one country dominates that list is going to grow exponentially, because they will be the free countries you can trade with when you piss off America and no one else will trade with you... it will start out hard but pretty soon more and more countries will join and soon there will be more money and more trade outside of the western white man only Super Adventurers Club... and actually the world will become a much better place for it.


    With low oil prices & economic strangulation by the US, Iran doesn't have the $ to buy them. Besides, they want to develop & produce their own aircraft.

    That is why I think Iran should ask Russia for a licence to produce MiG-29M2s... they are modern designs that can be readily upgraded to very near Su-35 level if they want to spend that much, while costing rather less.

    For a country the size of Iran having 150 MiG-29M2s is actually more useful than having 70 Su-27s, because the extra aircraft offer better coverage of air space.

    They previously had F-14s in their air fleet so a future upgrade could be a decent AESA radar and RVV-BD long range AAM if they want it.

    Otherwise the MiG comes with the full range of air to air and air to ground weapons the Su-27 can carry, and can be upgraded quite a bit depending on how much they want to spend on it in terms of upgrades.

    Producing it themselves will give them control so no one could cut them off from their own product like the US likes to do to its former customers.

    I would also think they should talk to the Russian Navy about the new AWACS platforms they will be developing for their new carrier because a small carrier capable AWACS platform would be useful... especially if it can operate from motorways as it and the MiGs could be dispersed all over the place yet still safely operate... a few more Pantsir batteries wouldn't go amiss either...

    Plus of course I would be interested in an upgrade of the Bereg 130mm coastal gun system... with integration of the Bal and the other missiles.

    I would suggest an upgrade to either a 152mm calibre gun with extended range or perhaps even development of a new 203mm gun with even better range and power, together with missiles like Yakhont, with improved engines and fuel to extend performance.

    Joint development with Russia will minimise the costs of these programmes, all of which would be rather useful for Iran at the moment and in the future...
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    Post  Isos on Sun May 26, 2019 11:15 am

    Iran is big, sukhois are better suited for them. With their bigger range they can be used from bases far from the south where tomahawks can't reach them.

    10 S-300VM to counter israeli jerichos against big bases. 200 Pantsirs to couter cruise missiles and protect all the borders. 4 or so S-400 to keep awacs and fighters away or fly low and be destroyed by pantsirs. 120 su-35 for air to air and 70 su-34 for anti shipping. Another 50 mig-35 for interception would be nice. 24 su-57 for deep strikes with kh-59mk2.
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Sun May 26, 2019 6:52 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Strangest thing is, that given the situation, why hasn't Iran tried to import more weaponry from China, i know there's some sudo embargo that's preventing them from openly buying from Russia, but i don't recall China being part of that, so where are all the HQ-9s, J-11s and J-10s??

    The Chinese were part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action... it was an agreement between the five permanent members of the UNSC... plus Germany, and the EU that signed it... so the US, the UK, France, China and Russia, plus Germany and the EU all signed it and agreed to it together with Iran.

    The US pulled out and while the other members (ie EU) claim they are sticking to it politically, their companies are pulling out to avoid sanctions from the US, effectively breaking the contract as far as Iran is concerned... if the EU does not hold up its end of the bargain there is little point in Iran sticking to its commitments...

    Well F, what a waste of time, i thought at least the Chinese would stay out of that, considering how much they depend on Iran for oil, but no.
    Damned fools, it looks like they fell for the old Weapons embargo BS, the U.S loves to attack countries after a few years of embargo's, granted Iran is no Iraq, but they were idiots to accept that Conventional Weapons clause.

    Either way is looks like this agreement is barely holding a pullout looks inevitable.

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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun May 26, 2019 6:59 pm

    They previously had F-14s in their air fleet..

    They still have them, & used them as mini AWACS against Iraq. With their VGWs, they can use roads as well.

    Isos wrote:Iran is big, sukhois are better suited for them. With their bigger range they can be used from bases far from the south where tomahawks can't reach them.
    A/SLCMs/PGMs in the US inventory can reach all of Iran where it matters, just like in Iraq. It will take longer & more $ to buy Su-27/30/34/35/57s in sufficient #s + train their pilots & ground crews.
    Also, longer range fighter bombers will give their AF more aggressive look- Iran's doctrine is defensive, not offensive, & the leadership wants to keep it that way.
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    Post  Isos on Sun May 26, 2019 7:14 pm

    Also, longer range fighter bombers will give their AF more aggressive look- Iran's doctrine is defensive, not offensive, & the leadership wants to keep it that way.

    When all your neighbours are buying f-15/rafales/typhoons and let US bring f-22 and f-35 there you don't care about the look of your army.

    Iran doesn't care about how other see their doctrine. Hundreds of ballistic missiles deployed don't make it a defensive doctrine.

    Defensive doctrine are useless. They need powerfull army if they want to survive. Mig-29M won't help at all. Su-35/34/57 will.

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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun May 26, 2019 8:13 pm

    Well, their B/CMs have/will have enough range, no need to waste $ on more expensive fighter-bombers. https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/

    Iraq had the best AF in the ME after Israel & perhaps Turkey, but still lost 2 air wars. Argentinians had longer range fighters than the RN Harriers but still lost in the Falklands.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/iran-defend-aggression-fm-zarif-190526091112937.html
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    Post  Isos on Sun May 26, 2019 8:16 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Well, their B/CMs have/will have enough range, no need to waste $ on more expensive fighter-bombers. https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/

    Iraq had the best AF in the ME after Israel & perhaps Turkey, but still lost 2 air wars. Argentinians had longer range fighters than the RN Harriers but still lost in the Falklands.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/iran-defend-aggression-fm-zarif-190526091112937.html

    Ballistic missile won't stop foreign bombers bombing iran.

    Iraq was attacked by like 75% of the world. Only nuks could have make them won the war.

    The situation in Iran is different. It can reach its neighbours with ballistic missiles while its sukhois would deal with anything left. Su-34 would attack US ships. Russia and china are much more powerfull than in the 90s when US were the only superpower left and could whatever they wanted. So they can help.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun May 26, 2019 9:12 pm

    Iraq was attacked by like 75% of the world.
    With the USAF/N acting as a chef & others as busboys.
    It can reach its neighbours with ballistic missiles while its sukhois would deal with anything left. Su-34 would attack US ships.
    Historically, most fighters & bombers been shot down from the ground, & Iran has plenty of AAA & SAMs.
    They also have land based AShMs; even their helos, small boats & MPA can launch them.
    https://globalmilitaryreview.blogspot.com/2012/01/iran-test-fires-qader-noor-anti-ship.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_of_the_Iranian_Air_Force#Maritime_Patrol

    An F-14 can fly low to avoid detection like an F-111 could, climb up & launch its ASh/CMs the same way a Su-30/34 can. A few F-4s could be turned into suicide drones too.
    Their C-130s, if modified, & P-3s can also fly low & launch up to 4 AShMs at a time. They could also modify some of their B-747s, Il-76s, & An-74s to carry them.
    Iran simply is too weak economically to afford all those birds u listed.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun May 26, 2019 9:45 pm; edited 4 times in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun May 26, 2019 9:56 pm

    Historically, most fighters & bombers been shot down from the ground, & Iran has plenty of AAA & SAMs. They also have land based AShMs; even their helos, small boats & MPA can launch them.

    They could also modify some of their B-747s, Il-76s, C-130s, & An-74s to carry them.
    Iran simply is too weak economically to afford all those birds u listed.

    Their local made SAM and all army (but ballistic missiles) are not a match for all the f-35 that will bomb them. Russia isn't producing su-57 for nothing or to-m2 or buk-m3.

    If upgrading su-27 and mig-29 they would have done that instead of invasting into su-57 and new S-400 and S-500.


    Their economy would be better if they were smarter and stoped saying they will destroy USA and Israel. USA and jews control the world economy. No need to be a genius to know that "saying you will destroy them" means only they will crush your economy and send you back in 1890.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun May 26, 2019 10:12 pm

    Their local made SAM and all army (but ballistic missiles) are not a match for all the f-35 that will bomb them.
    The F-35 is a poor bomber; it can't carry bunker busters. The US won't risk sending them until after the AD is eliminated, lest they too get shot down/crash in Iran, given to RF/PRC, & reverse engineered.
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    Post  Isos on Sun May 26, 2019 11:27 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    Their local made SAM and all army (but ballistic missiles) are not a match for all the f-35 that will bomb them.
    The F-35 is a poor bomber; it can't carry bunker busters. The US won't risk sending them until after the AD is eliminated, lest they too get shot down/crash in Iran, given to RF/PRC, & reverse engineered.

    They will use them. Even if it is a poor bomber and a poor fighter, its formidable stealth and ARMs will destroy iranian air defences. Its aesa radarand amraams will blow up any 3rd or 4th gen fighter Iran can send in the air. Iran has nothing to counter f-35.

    And even if they don't use them they still can send 400 f-18 and 200 f-15. The result will be the same. With the air forces of the middle east mainly composed of last 4+ eurocanards and US fighters the result is even more deadlier for iran.

    Your scenarios with "if" and "can" are not the reality. The reality is that US are close to destroy them and the only iranian hope is to use ballistic missile and do some dammage. But the final result is the same.

    Iran could be as rich as Saudi arabia and affoard anything they were doing things better.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun May 26, 2019 11:54 pm

    They can use the B-2s over Iran, surface & SLCMs & B-1B/52s from stand off ranges to hit ABs, nuclear sites, & bunkers, incl. with tactical nukes, if need be- no need to engage their AF in the air. The Iranians know this; even if they had the latest Russian/Chinese made fighters, the result would be the same, as u say.
    Even if Iran didn't say "death to Israel/America", its policies regarding both would be the same & intentions no secret to them. NK said essentially the same things to SK, Japan & the US all the while developing nukes, subs, & BMs. W/o China, they have even less strategic depth than Iran.
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    Post  Isos on Mon May 27, 2019 12:09 am

    And north koreas economy is destroyed. Even Russia and China don't support them.

    Iran did business with Europeans and India and China. And instead of keeping their ties with them strong they give US and israel more tools to destroy them economically by keeping saying they will restart nuclear program, they will destroy us and israel, they will close hormuz ...

    If they had hust shut up they would be in a better situation, US can't attack on their own and Saudi arabia would be totally weak as Iran oil can replace theirs. EU was for dealing with them too but now things gets bad.


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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon May 27, 2019 12:22 am

    Russia and China do support them by breaking sanctions. Kim went there recently for talks & to shore up support.
    They were justified to make those threats, partly for domestic consumption, in response to an undeclared war against them & their Syrian ally. The US can use false flag ops & provocations to attack at any time even w/o any help from the Saudis/UAE/Israel.
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    Post  Isos on Mon May 27, 2019 12:45 am

    What support ? Some ships that transfert some oil in open sea is nothing.

    With the story of iraqi wareheads no one believes them anymore, even less with Trump and this asshole of John Bolton at power. Saudi arabia is hated by europeans, once it is possible to buy iranian oil they will ban them from europe. Israel is hated by europeans too but corrupted politics and bankers support them, french made an embargo on arms against them since DeGaulle and we won't support them anymore militarly.

    Without european support US can't do anything to iran. That would destabilize our economies as iran can still destroy saudi oil facilities.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon May 27, 2019 4:26 am

    Without european support US can't do anything to iran. That would destabilize our economies as iran can still destroy saudi oil facilities.
    Trump & those behind him want to eliminate the EU competition & destroy ur economy, if that's what it'll take to "make America great again". After the Gulf oil sites r destroyed, u can buy American oil & gas instead of Iranian & Russian oil & gas.

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