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    Iran/US situation

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun May 19, 2019 7:19 am

    He was on his own since before leaving Sudan & had enough $ not to need any funding by others.

    Kashoggi is well known for his support for OBL, are you trying to say that everyone from Saudi Arabia... all those hundreds of princes and cousins and other relatives... bitter rivals for power that would side with Israel to counter a growing Iran, completely cut all support for OBL and his family?

    Saudi Arabia is openly murdering people every day in Yemen... do you think they give a shit about what OBL did in the US on 11/9... do you think they hold him in contempt for what he managed to achieve... of course they wont say it in public because you don't shit where you eat, but behind closed doors they see him as a hero.

    They clearly have a different concept of cowardice of course, but then for the US McCain is a hero for murdering people from 20,000ft in a B-52 and then getting shot down and captured... and likely selling out his country for good confinement conditions...

    I must say that , Iran so far has not changed material conditions on the ground . Giving ultimatums and possibly a small disruption to shipping will not force a business owner in China or Russia or Europe to start doing business in Islamic Republic of Iran . Because the sanctions ( blockade ) by yank remain . The primary sanctions by yank must end now , Iran should not allow itself to be turned into Yemen . Iran can only do this by closing down oil . Changing material conditions on the ground .So the average joe , will not get to work on time in Hamburg. The economies of the world grind to halt . And political pressure forces different states to open trade with Iran . In this war , the hot war , that Iran will have to start . It may face more than just the yanks . Other states will join in on their side . Not because they are right . But because these states will not risk war with USA , but they can risk war with Iran . An assembly similiar to first war against Saddam . Iran can not hope to win this war without nukes . So they must get them now . And then close Hormuz . Until sanctions of USA lifted . Iran then becoming official nuke armed state .

    I think Irans best option right now is to withdraw from the agreement if the EU wont hold up their end of the bargain and once the agreement is toast they need to go into overdrive to develop nuclear weapons as fast as they can... they don't need to be sophisticated or particularly powerful but they need something that will fit into the ballistic missiles they have... even if they are only 10-20KTs but fit in ballistic rockets that can reach Israel and US bases in the region.

    Of course that will take time, and in the mean time the US and Israel and SA will probably try to start a war... closing off the gulf will force a war, but it is an option they need to keep open while they are racing to get a bomb.

    They also need better air power... they need new planes and they need modern AAMs and if possible jamming pods that will reduce the effectiveness of AMRAAM to near zero.

    Once the agreement is torn up they need to get a large loan from either China or Russia and buy new Chinese or Russian fighters... I am obviously biased but I would suggest a licence production agreement for MiG-29M2 fighters... they are cheaper than MiG-35s so they can make more of them and over time they can upgrade them to MiG-35 level performance.

    I would also look at replacing the two engines of their locally produced variant of the F-5 with a single engine from the MiG to improve performance and commonality and replace its four 20mm cannon with the single 30mm gun of the MiG-29.

    I would also order some Su-30s to replace the F-14s in service.

    If Pakistan or NK give WMD to Iran, all hell may break loose against them as well.

    I am sure if Iran offered NK a very large amount of money... say 10 billion dollars in oil, they would be happy to transfer the information needed to make their own... not like they have anything else they can do with all that oil thanks to the US...
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    Post  littlerabbit on Sun May 19, 2019 2:10 pm

    There is something I would like to know. In the hypothetical war Iran vs USA&Israel&SA, how many medium range rockets (Shahab 3, Sejjil, Ghadr110 etc) could IRGC actually fire on Israel? Dozens or hudreds...I saw a video of underground base from Iranian TV, there were dozens of trucks loaded with rockets, probably Shahab 3 and Sejjil. I've read about Iranian underground bases, apparently there are more than 20 of them. If all of them have that many launchers, IRGC can make a havoc to any attacker. scratch
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun May 19, 2019 2:39 pm

    The thing is that you can't store them indefinitly. They can build 2000 of them if they want but how many will be safe of use 5 or 6 years later ? Some chemical reactions in the missiles can make it unusable after some time because they take some years to happen.

    They need to be able to produce many and quickly in case war becomes a reality. How would they fight if the first day they launch everything and the next day they have nothing left.

    Even US has something like only 2000 tomahawks ready in stocks. Not that many for their level.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun May 19, 2019 3:25 pm

    Solid fuelled rockets should be fine for a decade or two... liquid fuels are more volatile but you can leave fuelling them until you are ready to launch them like the Germans did with their V-2s...

    I am afraid I have no idea how many missiles they have but to be honest it would be rather cheaper to make tens of thousands of cruise missiles than ballistic missiles... if they can make F-5 fighter planes then making a long range cruise missile is basic stuff... they don't need state of the art engines... even a fairly average model would do... fit the thing with drop tanks to extend flight range if needed.

    Modular design would mean if the solid rocket fuel has expired and is not trustworthy, just remove that section and replace it with a new one.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun May 19, 2019 3:34 pm

    Iran already has cruise missiles and this is its latest:

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/02/02/587434/Iran-missile-defense



    Its based upon Kh-55 missiles sold to Iran from Ukraine.  Reversed engineered and given some updates and bam, low altitude flying cruise missile that Iran can produce.

    Iran has unveiled a surface-to-surface missile with a range of more than 1,350 kilometers during celebrations marking the 40th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun May 19, 2019 4:34 pm

    Were there to be a conflict I doubt that it would last long. Both sides will fling everything they can on the first days in an attempt at a knockout blow as there is no way an invasion force of sufficient size, like Iraq, could be landed.

    The devastation on both sides will be enormous. Whilst Iran will be seriously damaged it is a very large country, Israel, being very compact, will virtually cease to exist under the impact of missiles from both Iran and Hezbollah, don't forget that Iran probably has IRBM that have 'dirty' warheads loaded with anything radioactive that they can find. US bases all over the ME will suffer serious damage and casualties as will their warships and the US public will be stunned. Any ME country that has taken part will be hit hard. All this excludes the consequences of others, like Russia, joining in.

    The effect on us, in the rest of the world, will be catastrophic as oil prices hit the roof and we disappear into recession. For better or worse Trump would lose in 2020.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun May 19, 2019 5:40 pm

    R their missile production plants & storage sites also deep underground? If not, they'll be bombed on the 1st day of the air war.
    IMO, the US will try a decapitation strikes to remove the top leadership in Tehran or wherever they'll happen to be. That's why only 1 CVN & 2 B-52s r being deployed near Iran. If they r successful, the Iranian opposition & other proxies will do the rest, sparing American, Saudi, UAE, & Israeli lives.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun May 19, 2019 7:14 pm

    don't forget that Iran probably has IRBM that have 'dirty' warheads loaded with anything radioactive that they can find.

    They can also hit israeli nuclear plant resulting into a new Tchernobyl.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun May 19, 2019 7:22 pm

    But then the winds will carry the radioactive cloud to Iraq & Iran, with some fallout reaching Pakistan, India, China, Korea & Japan.
    This confirms some of what I was saying: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2631043.html


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Mon May 20, 2019 2:38 am; edited 1 time in total
    crod
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    Post  crod on Mon May 20, 2019 2:29 am

    mad dog Bolton influencing mad dog trump, this doesn't bode well. what a seriously fucked country they are.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon May 20, 2019 8:40 am

    Its based upon Kh-55 missiles sold to Iran from Ukraine.  Reversed engineered and given some updates and bam, low altitude flying cruise missile that Iran can produce.

    I would modify them to seriously increase flight range.

    The tiny folding wings can be change to larger fixed wings that generate more lift... by redesigning them so they don't fold away you could fit more fuel in the missile and the extra lift generated by the larger wings would allow it to operate at heavier weights.
    I would redesign the launcher so it is not tube launched and just one missile is carried per truck with the wings unfolded already for launch and fixed so they can be stronger but not a lot heavier.
    With fixed wings you could load external fuel tanks that are dropped when empty to extend range... it would probably need two or more extra solid rocket boosters to get it airborne, but the extra weight should not be too much of an issue. Slightly forward swept wings for efficient subsonic cruise with external fuel tanks to extend range performance should be useful features.

    Were there to be a conflict I doubt that it would last long. Both sides will fling everything they can on the first days in an attempt at a knockout blow as there is no way an invasion force of sufficient size, like Iraq, could be landed.

    Actually, if the Iranians are smart it could last a very long time... look at Kosovo... NATO aircraft were running out of targets...

    In a conflict against Iran the US certainly wont want to risk turning the entire population against them by hitting the wrong targets, but of course when someone from the other side of the planet who has been sanctioning your country starts bombing it it is hard to get behind them... a US attack on Iran would probably make being a member of the opposition pretty unpopular with the majority...

    The devastation on both sides will be enormous.

    I am not sure it will... the US will have no interest in butchering millions of Iranian military, because that worked out well in Iraq didn't it... the same military is going to have to serve as a stabilising force for any new puppet regime the US wants to install, so they can't really humiliate the Iranian military... when they made that mistake in Iraq they basically sowed the seeds for ISIS which was mainly the Sunni officers of the Iraqi armed forces and the rabble left over in the region who wanted the US out and their own country whose borders were not created by the British and the French in the early part of the 20th century.

    We will likely see lots of US generals showing video footage hitting various tunnel complexes and certain buildings they will claim are critical to the Iranian regime and their nuclear weapons programme and their ballistic missile programmes, but just like the ones from Kosovo and Serbia we really wont know how actually effective they were for some time afterwards... and US performance in destroying Scud missiles before they launched in the 1990s and later will again be put to the test... I would suggest the Iranians have upped the game compared with Iraqi Scuds that were falling to pieces as they fell towards their targets because the range extensions were not balanced with strength increases for the missiles...

    The Iranians will have a very wide range of targets they could take on, and enemies they have wanted an excuse to attack for some time now no doubt... for all we know their ballistic missiles might contain dead animals with foot and mouth disease or anthrax or some other chem or bio weapon... they could airburst several kms up and release material all over the place... whether they are intercepted or not...

    The effect on us, in the rest of the world, will be catastrophic as oil prices hit the roof and we disappear into recession. For better or worse Trump would lose in 2020.

    Hahahahaha... don't know what it is like where you are but I am paying $2.25 per litre anyway... if they put the prices up any more I will get my car converted to LPG...

    High fuel prices is actually good for the planet... the more expensive petrol and diesel is the more alternatives become worth looking at like LPG and also electric like solar and wind power...

    R their missile production plants & storage sites also deep underground? If not, they'll be bombed on the 1st day of the air war.

    They will almost certainly be under ground, and we will see night after night of video footage from the Americans saying this or that explosion will have ended the war... except it wont... the Iranians have always been smarter than the Americans have ever given them credit for...

    IMO, the US will try a decapitation strikes to remove the top leadership in Tehran or wherever they'll happen to be.

    Yeah, brilliant... get rid of the current moderates so that the hard liners can seize power and really stick it to you... the Iranian people will suffer more, but the new leadership will likely adopt a more belligerent role in the region.... they could send enormous numbers of troops to Syria for instance....

    That's why only 1 CVN & 2 B-52s r being deployed near Iran. If they r successful, the Iranian opposition & other proxies will do the rest, sparing American, Saudi, UAE, & Israeli lives.

    Yeah, I enjoyed fairy tales when I was a kid too, but can we agree that after murdering the people they voted to put into power and of course all the economic stress and pain US sanctions have caused that even the Iranian opposition might not actually be pro US?

    I mean american faggots squealed like bitches at the hint that Russian hackers might have "interfered" in US elections, all the while admitting it had no effect on the results... imagine how Iranians feel about America and the west in general with your history in the entire region...

    They can also hit israeli nuclear plant resulting into a new Tchernobyl.

    They will have other nuclear facilities used for producing nuclear weapons that would also be targeted... being able to hide your fighters in the hills and mountains near Syria to launch sneak attacks at Iranian and Syrian forces... well those radar shadows work both ways...

    But then the winds will carry the radioactive cloud to Iraq & Iran, with some fallout reaching Pakistan, India, China, Korea & Japan.


    Funny... when Israel says they will use nuclear weapons to defend their existence then nobody gets upset or talks about radiation damage or fall out, yet the potential for Iran to try to defend itself from a group of countries violating international law and you whip that one out?

    I remember the rhetoric over Saddam attacking Kuwaite... he was violating international law by attacking his neighbour in an unprovoked attack... how can we describe US actions against Iran... a country they have a long history of Fucking Over.

    mad dog Bolton influencing mad dog trump, this doesn't bode well. what a seriously fucked country they are.

    The sad thing is it would be more accurate to replace country with planet in this case because it wont just be the US and Iran that get all the benefits and glory of what will likely be a very nasty conflict...
    crod
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    Post  crod on Mon May 20, 2019 11:12 am

    It’s a shame they have not got the abilities to properly defend themselves. The carnage will be from the air day and night. Boots on the ground is a non runner as the Iranians would inflict real damage there.
    Who really knows what use their weapons are, a lot of the press stuff was for their own people - the capabilities are anyones guess but the airforce will be destroyed on day one leaving their very questionable air defence network to thwart the attacks...you’d have to think under those conditions close to 100% will get through.
    US military complex must be licking their lips - big pay day coming, a lot of ordinance required.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon May 20, 2019 2:00 pm

    ..brilliant... get rid of the current moderates so that the hard liners can seize power and really stick it to you...
    They r not moderates anymore as far as relations with the US r concerned. They hope that the new regime will be fractured & less active in the ME. Ordinary Iranians r pissed that $ & resources r being spent on Iraq & Syria while the economy suffers from crippling sanctions.
    Funny... when Israel says they will use nuclear weapons to defend their existence then nobody gets upset or talks about radiation damage or fall out, yet the potential for Iran to try to defend itself from a group of countries violating international law and you whip that one out?
    They neither confirm nor deny their possession of nukes.
    The prevailing Westerly winds favor Israel.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Tue May 21, 2019 7:04 am

    It’s a shame they have not got the abilities to properly defend themselves.

    We need to see what they are prepared to do... they might surprise everyone...

    The carnage will be from the air day and night.

    Yeah, I don't think they will be going for shock and awe... most of their primary targets will be ballistic rocket bases and the homes of the leaders of the country and official buildings.

    They would probably hit the "secret police" buildings and also a few prisons to create a bit of mayhem, not to mention the obvious airfields, army barracks, comms centres, HQs, and anything potentially to do with nuclear weapons development and production.

    They will also likely try to hit ports and naval vessels where they can and any coastal installation that uses anti ship missiles.

    In their turn I think the Iranians will try to launch ballistic missiles at US bases in nearby countries while they still have them... which will be why such bases will be such important targets.

    Cruise missile launchers could simply be buildings where the wall facing the nearest coast or in the direction of the primary target falls away and the missile is launched... no reloads so it wont matter if it is hit by air power after it has launched and there would probably be no reason to hit it before it launches... they can't hit every building in the country...

    Boots on the ground is a non runner as the Iranians would inflict real damage there.

    Which means boots might have to go to where the American boots are...

    the capabilities are anyones guess but the airforce will be destroyed on day one leaving their very questionable air defence network to thwart the attacks..

    Yeah, in Kosovo the Serbs were going to be begging for peace terms in 3 days if I remember some claims correctly... a week tops...

    Not saying the Iranians are Serbs or vice versa, but Iran has some capable systems that the Serbs lacked and also while there are US friendly countries in the area there are also US non friendly countries there too.... more to the point there is a channel of water that goes beside Iran that is critical to the US...

    US military complex must be licking their lips - big pay day coming, a lot of ordinance required.

    But what if they can't get enough F-22s over there and the F-35s they send start suffocating pilots and crashing... or both turn out to be not as invisible to radar as the US has been claiming? I mean if Serbia can shoot down an F-117 with an ancient SA-3... how about the Iranians shoot down a B-2 with an S-300...

    They r not moderates anymore as far as relations with the US r concerned.

    If they are not it is because the US gave them no choice... it is not Iran that has broken the agreement it is the US and now the EU.

    They hope that the new regime will be fractured & less active in the ME.

    What new regime? All will be united against the US and the west again... and the only reason they have been active in the ME is because the US and the West and Israel and Saudi Arabia have been fucking everyone over... Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya... was Iran supposed to ignore expansion of Sunni terrorism supported by the west?

    Attacking Iran will not solve the problem because the problem is not Iran.

    Ordinary Iranians r pissed that $ & resources r being spent on Iraq & Syria while the economy suffers from crippling sanctions.

    Again.... fucking hilarious... the west destroys Syria and Iraq and Yemen and Iran tries to help but Iran is the bad guy that needs regime change... no wonder ISIS finds it so easy to recruit.

    They neither confirm nor deny their possession of nukes.

    Yet they are so certain Iran has nukes and while following all the rules to allow them access to nuclear power generation technology and signing the nuclear non proliferation treaty Israel wants to bomb the shit out of Iran because they think that Iran might have or nearly have something they have hundreds of...

    Like I said, Israel is the biggest promoter of anti Semitism... a country born from white jewish terrorism that has the support of the west out of sympathy because of German actions 70 years ago... which I find rather amusing because while what Germany did to the jews was bad they did the same to the communists and the crippled and the gays and a great long list of others including those who just happened to be slavs, but the jews have great pr and lots of money and they own many media outlets so they cannot be criticised.... fuck em... if Palestine doesn't exist then why should israel?

    The prevailing Westerly winds favor Israel.

    The time of the west is fading... and partly because of its inconsistencies... Israel was born from terrorism and will continue to live with terrorism forever because negotiations... open and fair are a weakness and jews are strong don't you know... well strong when stealing land or money.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue May 21, 2019 7:46 am

    All will be united against the US and the west again.
    That's irrelevant as the attack won't last too long; they'll hate their own gov. as much, if not more, for bankrupting the country.
    . Israel wants to bomb the shit out of Iran because they think that Iran might have or nearly have something they have hundreds of...
    Some believe- or it could be propaganda or "fake news"- that they have a parallel secret nuclear program to build nukes at underground sites that no1 not approved by the IRGC is allowed into. If it was true, I'm not sure it's easy to hide something like it from modern detection methods, otherwise the US, not to mention Israel, would have revealed more than we heard so far.
    Iran has more strategic depth than any other ME nation- Iraq was easy to bomb & invade from Saudi Arabia & Kuwait + CBGs that had land based tanker support & weren't facing LR AShMs, with USSR/Russia not intervening. Now it would be an uphill battle & thus, if it does happen, we'll see a replay of the 1998 Desert Fox or US CM attack on Syria at the most. Then the Washington hawks will be satisfied & the chickens won't freak out. Iran will be destabilized as a result- the US practiced the art of regime change/hybrid war & perfected it better than any1 else.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Tue May 21, 2019 3:15 pm

    That's irrelevant as the attack won't last too long; they'll hate their own gov. as much, if not more, for bankrupting the country.

    So if Cuba launched a ballistic missile attack on your neighbourhood and killed some people there would you rise up against Trump for getting the US into a situation where Cuba is attacking you?

    Some believe- or it could be propaganda or "fake news"- that they have a parallel secret nuclear program to build nukes at underground sites that no1 not approved by the IRGC is allowed into.

    Yeah bro, and some believe in the tooth fairy, but they are just western children which is why we don't elect people under the age of 4 into elected government positions...

    Honestly, if you are trying to suggest it is OK to attack Iran and murder some people because someone said they might have a secret nuclear weapons programme but there is no evidence at all that this might be true... congrats... you are a drone for their machine... how many relatives are you prepared to lose over this?

    If it was true, I'm not sure it's easy to hide something like it from modern detection methods, otherwise the US, not to mention Israel, would have revealed more than we heard so far.

    If it was true it would be the smoking gun they would use to murder a lot of Iranians, but without proof it is pretty much the same WMD bullshit from Iraq...

    Iran has more strategic depth than any other ME nation- Iraq was easy to bomb & invade from Saudi Arabia & Kuwait + CBGs that had land based tanker support & weren't facing LR AShMs, with USSR/Russia not intervening.

    But America is a hyperpower and they can beat anyone overnight... except Serbians and Somalians and Vietnamese and Koreans.

    Now it would be an uphill battle & thus, if it does happen, we'll see a replay of the 1998 Desert Fox or US CM attack on Syria at the most. Then the Washington hawks will be satisfied & the chickens won't freak out. Iran will be destabilized as a result- the US practiced the art of regime change/hybrid war & perfected it better than any1 else.

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA.... yeah Washington dickheads are fucking experts at bringing peace and democracy and regime change... I mean people are flocking to move to the Ukraine and Libya to live and those are the success stories...

    Israel tricked the Syrians in to shooting down a Russian military plane... you can claim it was all a big mistake but I really don't think so... they sent a message specifically to get the Russian plane to head towards where their operation was about to take place... in my opinion it was murder... hense the Russian reaction... so the Israelis got exactly what they were hoping for... perhaps they thought the Russians would place the blame on the Syrians... that was who they were blaming... but the result was the opposite of what they wanted... the Russians decided to give the Syrians an air defence capability vastly more powerful than they had ever had before, and where once the Israeli airforce and indeed the US airforce could fly where they liked, now they need to use stand off weapons in enormous numbers and most of the time those get shot down and don't hit anything.

    Now what were you saying about this being really quick and so the US just needs to fly in there and take out the Iranian air force and the Iranian leadership and the Iranian people will rise up and have a civil war and the more moderate regime will create peace in the region by being more inward looking.

    Do you write for Disney?

    When the US attacks the Iranian leadership are going to realise that their best friends right now are Russia and China and the EU can go fuck itself because they will be no use at all.

    How long did it take for the US to finally take out Saddam? I mean they started trying to kill him in 1990... how long did it take them to get Castro?

    Making the leadership and regime of Iran the enemy instantly cements their local support... they didn't break any agreements... the US did that.

    If you think the US is expert at hybrid war look at the Crimea and Ukraine... the Russians and US respectively... how has each gone in terms of future and democracy and prosperity?
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue May 21, 2019 5:38 pm

    So if Cuba launched a ballistic missile attack on your neighbourhood and killed some people there would you rise up against Trump for getting the US into a situation where Cuba is attacking you?
    Wars destabilize & in many ways set back all those engaged in them- losers & victors alike. Florida is full of expatriate Cubans & their kids who decide who the next president is, & they were involved in the JFK assassination since he didn't support the Bay of Pigs invasion hard enough & failed to remove Castro.
    Honestly, if you are trying to suggest it is OK to attack Iran and murder some people because someone said they might have a secret nuclear weapons programme but there is no evidence at all that this might be true... congrats... you are a drone for their machine...
    I don't subscribe to that poor logic, just mentioned it to show their spin.
    If it was true it would be the smoking gun they would use to murder a lot of Iranians, but without proof it is pretty much the same WMD bullshit from Iraq...
    Such campaign has a lot risks & not even 50% of success. Iraq & Vietnam w/o WMD still wore the US down.
    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA.... yeah Washington dickheads are fucking experts at bringing peace and democracy and regime change...
    At least they mastered "colored revolutions"- what comes after them still benefits the MIC.
    ..the US just needs to fly in there and take out the Iranian air force and the Iranian leadership and the Iranian people will rise up and have a civil war and the more moderate regime will create peace in the region by being more inward looking.
    No, that's what those think tanks, some US senators, Israel & Bolton r hoping for.
    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/do-iranian-threats-signal-organized-u-s-israel-subterfuge/
    https://news.antiwar.com/2019/05/20/us-lawmakers-clash-on-iran-intelligence-ahead-of-briefing/
    If you think the US is expert at hybrid war look at the Crimea and Ukraine... the Russians and US respectively... how has each gone in terms of future and democracy and prosperity?
    Their expertise stops right after a successful regime change- & they don't give a damn about democracy, human rights, the rule of law, poverty, refugees, environment, etc.; those r used as propaganda smoke screen to justify a given policy to domestic audience & their European allies.
    What American officials want is stability, not democracy, and by “stability” I mean the continuation and, when possible, expansion of Saudi, Israeli, and Egyptian power in the Middle East. Iran is no friend of democracy or democratic uprisings within its own borders, but it is not opposed to such uprisings elsewhere, so long as they weaken their adversaries’ grip on the region. Democracy in the Middle East is a threat to American, Israeli, and Saudi power even when the Iranians are not involved. But every American ally lost is a potential Iranian ally gained. That is a threat the Americans, Israelis, and Saudis simply cannot accept.
    https://www.juancole.com/2019/05/coming-american-assault-iran.html

    https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2019/05/20/wikileaks-cable-from-2009-about-houthis-and-iran/


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed May 22, 2019 6:20 am; edited 5 times in total (Reason for editing : add a quote)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed May 22, 2019 5:06 am

    I don't subscribe to that poor logic, just mentioned it to show their spin.

    Yeah, this is the internet and it is hard to read people so you can tell whether they are being sarcastic or just mimicking their opponents so you really need to make it clear when you do so, for instance, according to the May government in the UK Iran is already guilty of violating the nuclear agreement because they are bad people and bad people do bad things therefore they are making nuclear weapons as we speak and in 45 minutes they can get them to the battlefield deployed and ready to use... we need to bomb them now...

    Such campaign has a lot risks & not even 50% of success. Iraq & Vietnam w/o WMD still wore the US down.

    WMDs would have been the only things that would have actually stopped those attacks... don't you love the irony that their eagerness to attack and invade makes WMDs more desirable to their enemies...

    At least they mastered "colored revolutions"- what comes after that still benefits the MIC.

    Have you mastered the english language?

    A master a coloured revolutions... the only example I have seen in the last 30 years that would get the description "masters", would have to be Putin in the Crimea, where they took a fairly large chunk of land in a very strategic location from a country that is now a declared enemy that had recently aligned with a declared strategic enemy, without firing a shot or killing a single person with the support of more than 95% of the local population.

    Any fuckwit can break a country and turn it in to shit... you don't get a masters degree in art for walking in to a museum and hacking a painting to shreds, or burning the whole place down... because you own the only building contractor company in town and know you will get the contract to rebuild... unless there is a masters degree in scum somewhere... don't know where but the name of the college will be Bastards Inc.

    No, that's what those think tanks, some US senators & Bolton r hoping for.

    Why do you think you need to be their mouth piece? Or why don't you indicate that it is their mentality and not yours?

    Their expertise stops right after a successful regime change- & they don't give a damn about democracy, human rights, the rule of law, poverty, refugees, environment, etc.; those r used as propaganda smoke screen to justify a given policy to domestic audience & their European allies.
    What American officials want is stability, not democracy, and by “stability” I mean the continuation and, when possible, expansion of Saudi, Israeli, and Egyptian power in the Middle East. Iran is no friend of democracy or democratic uprisings within its own borders, but it is not opposed to such uprisings elsewhere, so long as they weaken their adversaries’ grip on the region. Democracy in the Middle East is a threat to American, Israeli, and Saudi power even when the Iranians are not involved. But every American ally lost is a potential Iranian ally gained. That is a threat the Americans, Israelis, and Saudis simply cannot accept.

    Which is why no reasonable person should ever give a fuck about what they say or do...

    Wars destabilize & in many ways set back all those engaged in them- losers & victors alike. Florida is full of expatriate Cubans & their kids who decide who the next president is, & they were involved in the JFK assassination since he didn't support the Bay of Pigs & failed to remove Castro.

    The BOP invasion was a CIA op and they got hung out to dry... JFK himself got largely voted in to power because of the mob, who lost biggest to Castro... they ran gambling and prostitution in Cuba and they lost the most to castro... but if forces in the US wanted to kill every US president that didn't remove Castro they would have shot more US presidents than the US had had before...
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed May 22, 2019 5:31 am

    GarryB wrote:A master a coloured revolutions... the only example I have seen in the last 30 years that would get the description "masters", would have to be Putin in the Crimea, ..
    The CIA has many agents with academic degrees. Their list of regime changes is long, starting with the Kingdom of Hawaii & ending with Brazil & Armenia.
    Why do you think you need to be their mouth piece? Or why don't you indicate that it is their mentality and not yours?
    I like to expose both sides for what they stand for, & I hoped u would have understood that from my prev. posts here & on other threads.
    ..but if forces in the US wanted to kill every US president that didn't remove Castro they would have shot more US presidents than the US had had before...
    Cuba after the 1962 Missile Crisis was never an existential threat to the US anymore than Turkey, Norway, SK or Japan were existential threats to the USSR. As long as those Cubans in Florida & certain oil men in Texas r happy, besides the MIC & the Wall Street, there's no need for another coup- the US presidents know their place & play their assigned role.
    China won't be bullied: https://www.juancole.com/2019/05/rescue-successfully-beijing.html


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed May 22, 2019 6:45 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu May 23, 2019 5:19 pm

    The real goal of US energy policy in Mideast
    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/05/opinion/the-real-goal-of-us-energy-policy-in-mideast/
    https://www.juancole.com/2019/05/khamenei-rouhani-negotiating.html

    End of the deal: Iran signals no capitulation
    https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/05/article/end-of-the-deal-iran-signals-no-capitulation/

    Pentagon to Send 10,000 US Troops to Mideast
    Senate Panel Rejects Requiring Congress Sign Off on Iran War
    Iraq War Looms Large in Debate on Iran Policy
    Officials Reject Pompeo's Claim Iran Is Working With al-Qaeda
    If the US Goes to War With Iran, Netanyahu Will Be Prime Suspect

    https://www.antiwar.com/

    If a real war starts, Iran may get nukes in 6 months, if not less- the US has not enough ground troops to invade it, only some islands in the Gulf.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Thu May 23, 2019 5:57 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add links)
    AlfaT8
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Thu May 23, 2019 8:40 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    If a real war starts, Iran may get nukes in 6 months, if not less- the US has not enough ground troops to invade it, only some islands in the Gulf.

    Yea, this "war with Iran" thing is complete nonsense, Iran has enough missiles to completely screw over every American base in the Middle-East and Russia is right there next to Iran.

    We know how difficult it is for the U.S to discern between an Airbus A300 and an F-14, so i doubt they're able to tell the difference between a Qader and a Kalibre.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Fri May 24, 2019 8:17 am

    The CIA has many agents with academic degrees. Their list of regime changes is long, starting with the Kingdom of Hawaii & ending with Brazil & Armenia.

    Like I said, you don't need a degree, masters or otherwise to burn down a house and kill people... the fact that they have a long history of doing it proves what total censored they are.... the nazis probably killed less innocent people than the CIA has.

    I like to expose both sides for what they stand for, & I hoped u would have understood that from my prev. posts here & on other threads.

    I did think what you were saying was out of character...

    Cuba after the 1962 Missile Crisis was never an existential threat to the US anymore than Turkey, Norway, SK or Japan were existential threats to the USSR. As long as those Cubans in Florida & certain oil men in Texas r happy, besides the MIC & the Wall Street, there's no need for another coup- the US presidents know their place & play their assigned role.

    So all the economic terrorism like burning sugar cane fields and attempts to murder Castro were all just for fun?

    Officials Reject Pompeo's Claim Iran Is Working With al-Qaeda

    Fucking Hilarious... US working with Alqaeda in Syria...

    If a real war starts, Iran may get nukes in 6 months, if not less- the US has not enough ground troops to invade it, only some islands in the Gulf.

    If they promise to use them only on US targets then Pakistan might give them some nukes...
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    Post  nomadski on Fri May 24, 2019 11:46 am

    In war nobody is winner . But yanks have started war . Economic war . It has victims and casualties . Some Iranians say , no war , no negotiations . But they are mistaken . War already started by yank . And they say they will resist without hot war . Is this possible ? After a year of reduced oil output , some speak of issuing  ration books . What happens after two years or ten ? So Iranians are putting a brave face on . They know  .  

    Some want a return to JCPOA , this is madness . Some to return to pre - JCPOA .  Another madness . Some say they will fight the yanks , without nukes , like they fought Saddam .  Another madness  . Some appeal  to the humanity of the world , to lift the blockade . Another madness . Some cry in public and raise their fist in private . No we need someone,  who will cry in private,  and raise fist in public . Like  president  Ahmadinejad .

    So Iran should target the yanks . Directly . Not their agents or servants.  Not allow them to burn the region . Then come dressed as firemen   . To put the fire out , they started . Iranians must show the future generations how to stand and fight . To be free . They must set example . They must teach lesson of history . The steps that are needed,  in my view :

    ( 1 )  A new direction , by leadership .

    ( 2 )  Open support for all regional ,  anti - Imperialist forces . To attack .

    ( 3 )  Launching several sattelites .   Building many more .

    ( 4 ) Nuke warheads . Atmospheric  test on TV .

    ( 5 ) Disabling more oil tankers . Taking open responsibility .

    ( 6 )  In case of yank attack , sink their ships in Persian Gulf .

    ( 7 ) In case of shock and awe , send a few ICBM with conventional warhead into yank city .

    ( 8 )  In case of yank continuing  attack , sink ship in region with nuke .

    ( 9 ) Yank nuke Iranian city . Iran nuke Yank city .

    ( 10 ) Trump goes and visit Saddam in Hell .
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    Post  PapaDragon on Fri May 24, 2019 1:58 pm


    There isn't going to be any war, both sides are just waiving their dicks to look tough:

    - Iran can't take on USA and walk it off without getting sent back to 1920s. They would still survive thought which is not enough for USA because they would still not be in control.

    - Israel will swoop in and do their thing if war starts which is another can of worms.

    - USA can't afford it from standpoint of manpower: to effectively occupy just one large province they would need amount of troops that they cannot gather without draft which is political suicide.

    - USA has no access to required air bases in the region, without them they are powerless to take on Iranians properly. They would be stuck with using CVNs but even if they go full stupid and get their entire carrier fleet in the gulf they would not have enough aircraft and would never be able to generate sortie rate required to accomplish anything other than feel-good tour for media. If Iranians aren't complete retards they should be able to deal with this no problem, especially in the long run.

    - And if somehow even one of those overpriced obsolete US dinosaurs gets hit by Iranians their entire reputation and nation's perception of power will go down the toilet and they know.

    So don't expect anything other than usual BS from both sides, neither has balls anymore for this






    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri May 24, 2019 7:21 pm

    The US’s Middle East strategy might be fraying

    With all this talk about sending 10K troops, more ships, etc., war is more likely. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/1500-troops-defensive-capabilities-headed-middle-east-deter/story?id=63257347
    http://www.pravdareport.com/opinion/142418-iran/
    http://www.pravdareport.com/world/142412-israel_war/

    Trump & the Pentagon doesn't want it, at least not yet. If things go wrong, & they will, he may lose his job & perhaps freedom as well.
    Trump: More US Troops Not Needed in Mideast
    Pentagon Officials Say No Actual Plan Exists for Iran War
    Moneyed Interests Pushing for Hard Line Against Iran
    An Attack on Iran Would Violate US and International Law
    Iran Says It Will Not Surrender Even if It Is Bombed
    Iran Says No Talks With US 'Under Any Circumstances'
    Iran Tells German Envoy Its Patience Is Over
    Iran Stores More Crude Oil as US Sanctions Stifle Exports

    https://www.antiwar.com/


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