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    The rise of Chinese Navy and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

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    walle83

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    Post  walle83 on Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:45 pm

    Another missile we should add is the chinese CJ-100 anti-ship missile. A missile in testing that has a range of 800km and possibly can reach hypersonic speeds.
    Launch platforms for this missile is suggested to be the Type-55 destroyer or the newest H-6 bomber.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-df-100-anti-ship-missiles-are-ready-sink-us-navy-90741
    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/30058/lets-talk-about-this-previously-unseen-ground-launched-missile-that-china-just-leaked
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:07 am

    The 9 Yasen will take 10-15 years to complete (if ever), number of Tu-22M is about 60 at most, yes 9 Akulas in total but the queastion was how many was active and that number is 4. And "soon" a relative term, wouldnt hold my breath for all 9 to return.

    You are not getting the picture... the risk of destruction for the Chinese Navy or even the US Navy in taking on even just a single upgraded Kirov makes any real conflict rather unlikely to begin with... which is a good thing for all concerned.

    People say America makes money from war and conflict, but if that were the case would they be 22 trillion dollars in debt?

    Only a few people in the US make money from war and conflict but they already have lots of money and they use it to ensure war and conflicts continue so they can make even more money. For the US as a whole it means dead soldiers and maimed soldiers and mentally scarred soldiers and printing more and more money to keep the war machine going... which is all bad for the US.

    Another missile we should add is the chinese CJ-100 anti-ship missile. A missile in testing that has a range of 800km and possibly can reach hypersonic speeds.
    Launch platforms for this missile is suggested to be the Type-55 destroyer or the newest H-6 bomber.

    The irony is that the US would probably love for China to fight with Russia, they would probably even like to fight China themselves... it would certainly solve their economic problems... a major war is good for them to make excuses.
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    Post  Isos on Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:05 pm

    walle83 wrote:

    The 9 Yasen will take 10-15 years to complete (if ever), number of Tu-22M is about 60 at most, yes 9 Akulas in total but the queastion was how many was active and that number is 4. And "soon" a relative term, wouldnt hold my breath for all 9 to return.

    7 out of those 9 Yasen have been laid down, the last one was started in 2017. They need around 7~8 years to build one so they will get all the seven before 2025.

    The other 2 are planed for 2020 so, if they increase the speed, they can get it before 2026.

    Tu-22M can launch kh-32 well out of chinese AD range. A group of 60 Tu-22M can carry 60-180 missiles (most likely 2 per aircraft so 120). Chinese will struggle hit them because they fly at an altitude of 40km and dive on the target at mach 4.

    Akula are there and they have 9 of them with even some in reserve they may lease to india. Even without modernization they are better than any chinese ship. They will very soon present the "husky class" which will replace them and it should be cheaper and faster to build than yasen.
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Sat Nov 23, 2019 7:08 pm

    No Depends on the Akula if it's from the first series Modern Chinese Attack Subs are better then those, Not all Akula's are the same or even.

    Another Myth that keeps going on in this forum.
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:16 am

    How many of those modern subs does China have?

    The Saudis had state of the art equipment in Yemen... but it didn't perform that well because of the tactics used and likely skill level of those on the front lines was not high.
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    Post  walle83 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:13 am

    Isos wrote:
    walle83 wrote:

    The 9 Yasen will take 10-15 years to complete (if ever), number of Tu-22M is about 60 at most, yes 9 Akulas in total but the queastion was how many was active and that number is 4. And "soon" a relative term, wouldnt hold my breath for all 9 to return.

    7 out of those 9 Yasen have been laid down, the last one was started in 2017. They need around 7~8 years to build one so they will get all the seven before 2025.

    The other 2 are planed for 2020 so, if they increase the speed, they can get it before 2026.

    Tu-22M can launch kh-32 well out of chinese AD range. A group of 60 Tu-22M can carry 60-180 missiles (most likely 2 per aircraft so 120). Chinese will struggle hit them because they fly at an altitude of 40km and dive on the target at mach 4.

    Akula are there and they have 9 of them with even some in reserve they may lease to india. Even without modernization they are better than any chinese ship. They will very soon present the "husky class" which will replace them and it should be cheaper and faster to build than yasen.

    All 7 Yasen in service by 2025? Do u know how russian naval ship building works? All 7 wont be in service by then...they just wont.
    It takes China about 2 years to get new vessles from launch-fitting-trails-commissioned. And they have really gotten that prosegure down by now and have all the money in the world to make it happen.
    So even if Russia could get up to that speed it would take about 10 years to get all 7 in service.
    And Husky:s? In what decade? 2040s?
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    Post  walle83 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:23 am

    GarryB wrote:How many of those modern subs does China have?

    The Saudis had state of the art equipment in Yemen... but it didn't perform that well because of the tactics used and likely skill level of those on the front lines was not high.

    At present Chinas has:

    SSN
    3 Type 091
    6 Type 093
    ? Type 095 (In early testing/building fase)
    Total: ~10

    SSBN
    1 Type 092
    4 Type 094
    (0?) Type 096 (In development)
    Total: 5

    SSK
    17 Type 041
    12 Kilo class
    13 Type 039
    ~14 Type 035
    Total: ~55


    Last edited by walle83 on Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  Isos on Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:26 am

    Yasen are build in parrallele not one after the other.

    China build many ships but do not much with them. They have no experience.

    No Depends on the Akula if it's from the first series Modern Chinese Attack Subs are better then those, Not all Akula's are the same or even.

    Another Myth that keeps going on in this forum.

    Type 093 is better than akula ?

    Russia has 70 years of experience with subs and not only building them but also operating in any waters in the world. Akulas arethe vest USSR produced. Specially the Akula 2 and 3.

    China keeps all its navy near the borders and has build made only 2 classes of SSN and two SSBN in very small quantities. They have no experience building them or designing them. It's not because they were build after akulas that they are better.
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    Post  walle83 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:03 pm

    Isos wrote:Yasen are build in parrallele not one after the other.

    China build many ships but do not much with them. They have no experience.

    No Depends on the Akula if it's from the first series Modern Chinese Attack Subs are better then those, Not all Akula's are the same or even.

    Another Myth that keeps going on in this forum.

    Type 093 is better than akula ?

    Russia has 70 years of experience with subs and not only building them but also operating in any waters in the world. Akulas arethe vest USSR produced. Specially the Akula 2 and 3.

    China keeps all its navy near the borders and has build made only 2 classes of SSN and two SSBN in very small quantities. They have no experience building them or designing them. It's not because they were build after akulas that they are better.

    So in your mind they will have several submarines in trails at the same time? I doubt they have the resources or the experinced manpower for that.

    Type 093 capibilites is somewhat unknown. The Chinese themself claim its noisy like the early Akulas, the US navy say its more like the Victor III-class. The Type-095 will probably be alot better.

    Like i always say, its not about what the PLA have today that is the issue, its what they will have in 5-10 years. Speed of development is the real issue.
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    Post  Isos on Sun Nov 24, 2019 12:17 pm

    So in your mind they will have several submarines in trails at the same time? I doubt they have the resources or the experinced manpower for that.

    Can you go on wikipedia and check the dates ?

    They won't get all of them at the same moment. The first is in service. The second in test. The third almost finished. The forth is being build and by the time the third finishes its test, it will be finished and sent for tests (when the 3rd goes into service) ... at this rythm they can have all of the 7 in service or at least completed by 2025.


    Like i always say, its not about what the PLA have today that is the issue, its what they will have in 5-10 years. Speed of development is the real issue.

    They already have a huge amount of ships. They can't just produce them indefinitly. The thing is they don't use them and the day they start using them like US and paying bases around the world, the budget will grow up at US navy's budget level and they will feel it. Just refueling so much ships is f*cking expensive, add to that increasing cost of life, increasing salaries for their sailors ... and don't forget prices of weapons.

    Having a ship with 120 VLS is good but good weapons are also expensive and when you multiply by 120 then by number of ships in service, it grows very fast specially that weapons can't be kept for ever. They have expire dates and need replacement.
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    Post  walle83 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:14 pm

    Isos wrote:
    So in your mind they will have several submarines in trails at the same time? I doubt they have the resources or the experinced manpower for that.

    Can you go on wikipedia and check the dates ?

    They won't get all of them at the same moment. The first is in service. The second in test. The third almost finished. The forth is being build and by the time the third finishes its test, it will be finished and sent for tests (when the 3rd goes into service) ... at this rythm they can have all of the 7 in service or at least completed by 2025.


    Like i always say, its not about what the PLA have today that is the issue, its what they will have in 5-10 years. Speed of development is the real issue.

    They already have a huge amount of ships. They can't just produce them indefinitly. The thing is they don't use them and the day they start using them like US and paying bases around the world, the budget will grow up at US navy's budget level and they will feel it. Just refueling so much ships is f*cking expensive, add to that increasing cost of life, increasing salaries for their sailors ... and don't forget prices of weapons.

    Having a ship with 120 VLS is good but good weapons are also expensive and when you multiply by 120 then by number of ships in service, it grows very fast specially that weapons can't be kept for ever. They have expire dates and need replacement.

    I dont need Wikipedia to know Russias style of producing ships. First Yasen is in service, second is in trails and will probably be in service by next year (delayed from 2018), third is probably going to be launched in 2020 (delayed from 2019) and not be in service before late 2021 or even 2022. Fourth and fifth vessel will not be launched before 2022-2023. In total i expect 4-5 Yasen to be in service by 2025.

    And your point is? Just becouse you cant understand the plan of the PLAN doesnt mean the Chines dont have one. The thing of having a fast production of ships is that new generation of ships (and their capibilities) changes quick. China has 30 type 54A frigates now after producing them for about 10 years. Now the Type 054B is in developing. The type 52C destroyer was still being build when they started the Type-52D, same with the Type-55. In a few years we probably will see the Type-52E and/or the Type-055A.
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    Post  walle83 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 4:27 pm

    The rise of Chinese Navy and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy - Page 4 49072578512_e84dd4d32f_kThe rise of Chinese Navy and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy - Page 4 49102875238_1725571391_h

    PLAN Type 093 submarine
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    Post  Isos on Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:19 pm

    What plan ? They buy destroyers for coast guard missions. Their SSBN can't leave the coast because they are immediatly tracked by japan/USA/south korea. They don't protect their allies. We saw that during Venezuelan crisis or iranian, where were type 55 to protect them from US ? Type 52 C/D are also impressive and in big numbers, why didn't they send them to Venezuela or iran ? Or in Lybia when nato destroyed it ?

    They have plenty of investments in those countries and don't protect them. They have the second largest navy. Even india sent a destroyer in the Persian gulf when tensions appeared to protect its civilian ships.

    Russia's speed boats and corvettes managed to protect perfectly SAA and saved Assad.
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    Post  walle83 on Sun Nov 24, 2019 5:39 pm

    Isos wrote:What plan ? They buy destroyers for coast guard missions. Their SSBN can't leave the coast because they are immediatly tracked by japan/USA/south korea. They don't protect their allies. We saw that during Venezuelan crisis or iranian, where were type 55 to protect them from US ? Type 52 C/D are also impressive and in big numbers, why didn't they send them to Venezuela or iran ? Or in Lybia when nato destroyed it ?

    They have plenty of investments in those countries and don't protect them. They have the second largest navy. Even india sent a destroyer in the Persian gulf when tensions appeared to protect its civilian ships.

    Russia's speed boats and corvettes managed to protect perfectly SAA and saved Assad.

    First mission for the PLAN would be to secure the China sea, to keep the US navy and the japanese away. Second and a more long term plan would be to challange the US navy on the big seas around the world.
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:19 pm

    And your point is? Just becouse you cant understand the plan of the PLAN doesnt mean the Chines dont have one. The thing of having a fast production of ships is that new generation of ships (and their capibilities) changes quick. China has 30 type 54A frigates now after producing them for about 10 years. Now the Type 054B is in developing. The type 52C destroyer was still being build when they started the Type-52D, same with the Type-55. In a few years we probably will see the Type-52E and/or the Type-055A.


    the fast production of new "generation" ships and boats could be new generations, but is more likely to be fixing faults as they become evident with use leading to corrections and solutions and a new Type code number...
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    Post  Isos on Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:37 pm

    The Kirov from the 1980s is the equivalent of about 96 S-300 missiles, which is the equivalent 24 launch vehicles... so about four batteries of S-300 plus 192 TOR missiles... which is basically the equivalent of 24 TOR launcher vehicles, which is another four batteries of TOR with 6 vehicles per battery... and that is ignoring the 8 Kashtan batteries... each of which has 32 Pantsir missiles and two 30mm gatling guns... and they are not just sitting in a field on their own... they are a fully integrated air defence network on one platform.

    That's true only for Peater the great which is the last to be build. It has 48 fort and 48 fort M (PMU-2) with 1 enegagement radar each.

    Other Kirov have also two engagement radars but for the older Fort system only which limits the number of missiles being intercepted in the same time if they come from many different directions. They don't have tor missiles. Only Naval osa and ak-630 for close protection. They would be rather outdated by today's standard and would be easily chalanged by supersonic missiles.

    Hopfully they upgrade two of them.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:24 pm

    Isos wrote:
    The Kirov from the 1980s is the equivalent of about 96 S-300 missiles, which is the equivalent 24 launch vehicles... so about four batteries of S-300 plus 192 TOR missiles... which is basically the equivalent of 24 TOR launcher vehicles, which is another four batteries of TOR with 6 vehicles per battery... and that is ignoring the 8 Kashtan batteries... each of which has 32 Pantsir missiles and two 30mm gatling guns... and they are not just sitting in a field on their own... they are a fully integrated air defence network on one platform.

    That's true only for Peater the great which is the last to be build. It has 48 fort and 48 fort M (PMU-2) with 1 enegagement radar each.

    Other Kirov have also two engagement radars but for the older Fort system only which limits the number of missiles being intercepted in the same time if they come from many different directions. They don't have tor missiles. Only Naval osa and ak-630 for close protection. They would be rather outdated by today's standard and would be easily chalanged by supersonic missiles.

    Hopfully they upgrade two of them.
    Nakhimov Is being upgraded, and I am sure it will include a large number of short and medium range missiles too ( Peter the Great will follow. Admiral Lazarev (ex Frunze) will probably be scrapped.
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:53 pm

    I personally think the MoD & Navy brass will defer the decision on Lazarev until the Nahkimov is back in service and the results of her trials are fully absorbed, and the costs/schedule for the PtG upgrade are better understood.  It's also probably linked to the timeline for the Leader class build.

    I'm not convinced about the endless claims that Lazarev is a hulk fit only for scrapping, regardless of articles in Western magazines that refer to other articles in Izvestiya (that refer to anonymous "sources" in the "military").  These claims are mostly expressions of the biases of the articles author.  Eg Barents Observer has an article that argues “These huge vessels are vulnerable to modern weapons" or "even after modernization they will last maximum 15 years” where the "expert" source for this "info" is just a Russian magazine editor...

    Lazarev has been preserved since 1999 after an operational life of only 15 years.  Her machinery is not worn out, and her reactor was de-fuelled back in 2004-5. She was drydocked in 2014 and her bottom cleaned and painted to prolong her storage life.  You don't do this for a useless hulk. Her appearance is shabby with surface rust/discoloured paint and much of her equipment has been removed as spares to support PtG, but appearance is cosmetic and deleted equipment would be replaced in any case in any deep upgrade.

    Ushakov/Kirov is a different kettle of fish as her reactor has suffered some kind of accident back in 1990 and she has not been de-fuelled. Not knowing the nature of the failure makes it hard to quantify the risks in any potential overhaul, but she is clearly the more problematic of the sisters.

    Lets wait and see on the Lazarev.  The nay-sayers and eternal pessimists have been so wrong on so many occasions I'm not prepared to concede one inch of ground until the MoD announces something and issues a contract to the breakers yard.
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    Post  Isos on Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:35 pm

    3 kirov is perfect. One in the north and one in Pacific and last one switching during tensions.

    If they also bought the last Slava from Ukraine back in the 00s and upgraded it also with 64 angled uksk and Fort M, they would have had now 3 kirov and 4 Slava (2 in the pacific and 2 in the north because having such cruiser in black sea is a waste of time).

    Even without upgrade they would have kept the possibility to launch massive salvos of p-700/1000 with the 8 oscars and the kuznetsov , 3x20 + 4x16 + 24x8 + 1x12 = 328 missiles.

    With all of them upgraded to oniks it would bring the total number of ready to fire missiles to more than 1000. No navy in the world coud survive against such attacks.


    But now they divided them so that their p-700/1000 are launched in very small salvos that have no chance to go through defences and hit a carrier and Moscva is in the black sea (like a ferrari used for going to market).
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:21 am

    Well their new 20K ton cruiser designs and their new CVN is going to need a new nuclear power plant... would this be an opportunity to avoid the problems the Americans have had with their new Ford class vessels with all sorts of new stuff and all sorts of new stuff that doesn't work... perhaps replace the old nuclear reactor on the Kirov with a new design... it should be powerful enough to get rid of the complicated combined propulsion system and just be a nuke powered ship... they can fit it to a real ship and put it through its paces for real... they will have problems but better to sort them out now but potentially get a new cruiser out of it than scrap it and hope things go well when the new untested NPP goes in to the new ships.

    For the same reason I would look at replacing the Granit launchers and all their bits and pieces with an experimental EM Cat system for launching AWACS type aircraft... the loss of 12 missiles would be no big deal as new model small Zircon can be carried under the Su-33s wing, so there would be no loss in fire power... an Su-33 could probably carry up to 5 of the new small Zircons per aircraft which should more than compensate for the loss of 12 Granits... three planes and you have more missiles... better situational awareness with proper AWACS and extended range and much higher missile speed and the ability to launch the attack probably from 1,000km away from the carrier in any direction...

    It will be expensive, but it is money you are spending in Russian ship yards on Russian products and Russian technology... and when you get it all right it makes later projects easier and cheaper too.
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    Post  Arrow on Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:38 pm

    Russia still has huge problems with its shipbuilding industry. Production of frigates with a capacity of 4500 tonnes proj 22350 goes very slowly. The second unit is just entering the service. The 22350M project is still under development. Construction of these units until the future. They don't even have anything to dream about the ocean fleet.
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    Post  walle83 on Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:11 pm

    GarryB wrote:Well their new 20K ton cruiser designs and their new CVN is going to need a new nuclear power plant... would this be an opportunity to avoid the problems the Americans have had with their new Ford class vessels with all sorts of new stuff and all sorts of new stuff that doesn't work... perhaps replace the old nuclear reactor on the Kirov with a new design... it should be powerful enough to get rid of the complicated combined propulsion system and just be a nuke powered ship... they can fit it to a real ship and put it through its paces for real... they will have problems but better to sort them out now but potentially get a new cruiser out of it than scrap it and hope things go well when the new untested NPP goes in to the new ships.

    For the same reason I would look at replacing the Granit launchers and all their bits and pieces with an experimental EM Cat system for launching AWACS type aircraft... the loss of 12 missiles would be no big deal as new model small Zircon can be carried under the Su-33s wing, so there would be no loss in fire power... an Su-33 could probably carry up to 5 of the new small Zircons per aircraft which should more than compensate for the loss of 12 Granits... three planes and you have more missiles... better situational awareness with proper AWACS and extended range and much higher missile speed and the ability to launch the attack probably from 1,000km away from the carrier in any direction...

    It will be expensive, but it is money you are spending in Russian ship yards on Russian products and Russian technology... and when you get it all right it makes later projects easier and cheaper too.

    Expensive or not, all this will take time...a long time.
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:33 pm

    Russia still has huge problems with its shipbuilding industry.

    Russia never had a huge shipbuilding industry, neither a military one or a civilian one... except possibly for submarines which they used to have enormous numbers of.

    Right now Russia needs a 11 carrier fleet like it needs cancer... building military ships at the rate China is currently making them would be seriously unhealthy for Russia because pretty soon they would have an enormous military fleet that would suck money from the budget and not serve any useful purpose any time soon.

    Russia doesn't need enormous numbers of new Subs and big ships and carriers right now... nor does it need them in the next 5 years.

    In ten years time some larger ships will be useful to replace upgraded vessels, but for now new corvettes and frigates are fine... the equipment and systems they use are fully scalable so if they need a Destroyer or a Cruiser they don't need to invent new big anti ship missiles, they just need to work out how to pack UKSK-M launchers on board to most efficiently use the available space and use much larger AESA radar antenna arrays and bigger sonar arrays etc etc and fit nuclear power units to provide power for it all.

    The large shipyards that will build their CVNs can also build 350K ton oil tankers and gas carriers in their spare time that will generate money for the economy.

    Production of frigates with a capacity of 4500 tonnes proj 22350 goes very slowly. The second unit is just entering the service.

    That is true, but these frigates are better armed than cold war period Soviet destroyers, and now that they are tested and fully ready for service they can start making useful numbers of them and start to withdraw older vessels that were being used for the same roles.

    More important is that these frigates are fully multirole so there is a lot more flexibility and capability so the vessels they replace will allow improved performance as well.

    They don't even have anything to dream about the ocean fleet.

    In 5 years time they will have the K back at sea and probably at least one Kirov class back in the water to allow testing of the new modular systems on much bigger vessels in much bigger numbers... They can start expanding their trading horizons beyond those countries they share a land border with and can negotiate more equitable terms when they get alternatives to the ones available to them now... it will be good for Russia and the rest of the world.

    Expensive or not, all this will take time...a long time.

    You are clearly a fan of Chinese stuff and China... surely you of all people would realise there is no rush.... it is more important to get it right than to get it right now... because getting it right now means debt and debt means foreign powers have influence where they did not previously and their influence will generally shift your policy towards things of their interest rather than Russias interests... so it is bad for Russia.

    Right now Russia is secure... shore based power and air power and sub and coastal ship based power and power projection makes Russian territory as safe as any territory on the planet... more safe than most actually, so there is no rush to spend trillions right now.... billions over the next 2-3 decades should develop a powerful modern mobile fleet that serves Russia well.
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    Arrow

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    The rise of Chinese Navy and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy - Page 4 Empty Re: The rise of Chinese Navy and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  Arrow on Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:16 am

    ussia never had a huge shipbuilding industry, neither a military one or a civilian one... except possibly for submarines which they used to have enormous numbers of. wrote:

    But the USSR had. He built large destroyers and even aircraft carriers at the end of its existence. The USSR's fleet was incomparably larger than that of Russia. The same shipbuilding industry.
    Isos
    Isos

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    The rise of Chinese Navy and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy - Page 4 Empty Re: The rise of Chinese Navy and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  Isos on Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:38 am

    Arrow wrote:

    But the USSR had. He built large destroyers and even aircraft carriers at the end of its existence. The USSR's fleet was incomparably larger than that of Russia. The same shipbuilding industry.

    The bigest shipyard were in Ukraine and they lost that. The main problem is money not shipyards. Russia couldn't pay for the ships being build that's why yasen was build during 20 years. Russia doesn't pay at once for the ships so if they don't pay that makes delays as the shipyard needs that money to order what it needs. If they give all the money wheb they sign the contracts for the ships the shipyard will build them very fast.

    Anyway, looking at your english lvl shows that you are probably from China and you are here only to troll.

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