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    The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

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    verkhoturye51

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  verkhoturye51 on Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:48 pm

    All Delfin class boats are parked up in Olenya guba naval base (Northern fleet). Pacific fleet has only 2 Boreys and 1 Kalmar class.

    Bastion is heavily defended area. If you defend 50 SSB/SSBNs with 100 other brand new submarines you can call it heavy defense, but otherwise...

    And regarding Chinese submarines - perhaps Garmoniya could be placed there, too, if everythings works out ok in the Barents sea.
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:20 am

    verkhoturye51 wrote:
    There are some contradicting interests, preventing them officially allyingwith one another. China doesn't support Russia in Ukraine because it could threaten its trade. Not just with Ukraine, but entire West. And why would Russia support Chinese expansion in South China sea? To worsen its relations with Vietnam, Philippines, India? Until Russian relations are based on bilateralism, I see no room for Russo-Chinese alliance. Same goes for China. They just want to fuel their growth with trade. Lots of it, with everyone, no matter if they party with Stolichnaya or Jack Daniels.

    True there contradicting interests but strategically both have same enemy US/West both are interested in boosting trade and own industries. The reason why they dont set up "NATO 2" is - becuse then either China or Russia had to play main role. Russo Chinese alliance is more like entente cordiale .

    What is funny the more west/us is pressing on Chine the more China will be aligning with Russia.

    BTW as for sellign resources, food - India is growing faster then China and has same population. Russia can sell for yuans or rupees. As long as its not $ is is fine for me.

    hoom

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  hoom on Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:43 am

    Do you think they should join all their fleets into one central command to improve this?
    No, just a statement of the physical geography.
    No matter how strong in total, the Russian navy is always going to be split between the 4 geographically separated main fleets so effectively much weaker in each.

    the upcoming Type 095 is the Type 052C/D of Chinese SSNs, i.e. it will be internationally competitive and it will be mass produced, probably from the early 2020s onwards.
    Interesting, figured such a thing should be on the way.
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    GarryB

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  GarryB on Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:38 am

    What people seem to be missing is that the US Navy has an enormous superiority in carriers and cruisers and other surface vessels over the Russian Navy, and they never suggest the solution for the Russian Navy is to start mass producing ships to try to compete with the US alone or her NATO allies.

    Now that China has started an enormous burst of naval production, some here are claiming suddenly the Chinese Navy is more powerful than the Russian Navy and the obvious solution is for Russia to start mass producing ships too.

    I would suggest that even if China was a real threat like the USN is, then the solution for a powerful Chinese Navy for Russia would be the same as the solution for a powerful US Navy... Kinzhal, Kh-32, Zircon, Onyx, etc etc.

    Russia doesn't need to build a new navy to "defeat China", the measures it is developing to contain the US Navy near Russian waters will work against any navy.

    Spending money building an enormous fleet would be self defeating.

    A small but powerful fleet able to operate beyond the Russian landmass is a good goal for the next 20-30 years, but it will take time because it will be expensive and tricky to get right.
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    verkhoturye51

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  verkhoturye51 on Wed Jan 02, 2019 9:37 am

    hoom wrote:
    Do you think they should join all their fleets into one central command to improve this?
    No, just a statement of the physical geography.
    No matter how strong in total, the Russian navy is always going to be split between the 4 geographically separated main fleets so effectively much weaker in each.

    So why has the US split their ships into 6 fleets? There's always one CVN in Japan, often also in Hawaii and in the Gulf. I suppose all 11 should sail together all the time?
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    George1

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  George1 on Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:57 am

    PLA Navy surface ships launched in 2018.



    https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3477050.html

    hoom

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  hoom on Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:04 am

    So why has the US split their ships into 6 fleets? There's always one CVN in Japan, often also in Hawaii and in the Gulf. I suppose all 11 should sail together all the time?
    No, fundamentally geographically US fleet is always going to be split into East coast & West coast.
    Through military & political domination of Panama they have a relatively secure & rapid way to transfer between.
    In practice US operates far-flung colonial fleets & bases linked to the mainland by open ocean providing widespread presence but also limiting the amount of force they can concentrate in any one area.

    Russian fleet is split North/Baltic/Black Sea/Pacific at far flung corners of the country with easily blocked choke points on the exits & large lengths of potentially hostile coastlines between meaning they operate as almost completely separate entities.

    But China has a single continuous coastline.
    Its split into 3 fleet commands but because they're directly adjacent along the same coastline it can be considered essentially one big fleet.
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    Isos

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  Isos on Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:16 am

    Panama strait can be blocked easily by sinking two or three marchant ships. Good luck removing them fast enough. Russia already did that in ukrain by sunking a military ship to block ukrainian ports.

    Russia splits its navy in fleet because of geography. China and US by zones of intrest.
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    verkhoturye51

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  verkhoturye51 on Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:43 am

    hoom wrote:
    So why has the US split their ships into 6 fleets? There's always one CVN in Japan, often also in Hawaii and in the Gulf. I suppose all 11 should sail together all the time?
    No, fundamentally geographically US fleet is always going to be split into East coast & West coast.
    Through military & political domination of Panama they have a relatively secure & rapid way to transfer between.
    In practice US operates far-flung colonial fleets & bases linked to the mainland by open ocean providing widespread presence but also limiting the amount of force they can concentrate in any one area.

    Russian fleet is split North/Baltic/Black Sea/Pacific at far flung corners of the country with easily blocked choke points on the exits & large lengths of potentially hostile coastlines between meaning they operate as almost completely separate entities.

    But China has a single continuous coastline.
    Its split into 3 fleet commands but because they're directly adjacent along the same coastline it can be considered essentially one big fleet.

    Russians have adjusted to their gepolitic reality making corvettes and diesel submarines which are made just for those chokepoints. Guess what more? These small but powerful missile ships can sail through the network of navigable canals between all 4 western fleets & flotillas.

    And good luck blocking Bosphorus (let alone Bering strait). Russia would hardly tolerate such a violation of international freedom of passage, but given its good relations with Turkey, its more probable Turkey would block Bosphorus for its western "allies".
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    Isos

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  Isos on Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:13 am


    And good luck blocking Bosphorus (let alone Bering strait). Russia would hardly tolerate such a violation of international freedom of passage, but given its good relations with Turkey, its more probable Turkey would block Bosphorus for its western "allies".

    What good relation ? They almost started a war over syria few years ago. Erdogan had no choice to be good with putin since US wanted to remove him. Tomorrow when US/Turkey relation get better, turkey/russia won't be as good as today. This thing is a relation of oportunity for both Putin and erdogan to pisses offf NATO but can end anyday.

    They know they can't trust Erdogan and turks. That's why they are modernizing the bsf with Grigorovitch class ships and kilo sub in priority.

    Crimea is more than usefull to keep turks calm, they can use it as a missile base to launch kalibrs on the bosphorus and launch sukhois to destroy turkey untill they stop blocking it if it happens.

    Bosphorus strait is vital t russia. They won't bet on Erdogan's feelings towards them to keep it open for their ships.
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    verkhoturye51

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  verkhoturye51 on Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:02 pm


    What good relation ? They almost started a war over syria few years ago. Erdogan had no choice to be good with putin since US wanted to remove him. Tomorrow when US/Turkey relation get better, turkey/russia won't be as good as today. This thing is a relation of oportunity for both Putin and erdogan to pisses offf NATO but can end anyday.

    Russo-Turkish relations are bigger than personal relationship between Putin and Erdogan. Among other things they include energy (Turkish stream and Turkish nuclear power plant), military (S-400 sale), cooperation on Syria, holding each other's back when relations with the US worsen and simply fear of each others military power. This means that presidents have to take into account interests of business elites, top army officials, deep state & opposition, public opinion etc. Overall it's not opportunistic but something that grows over longer run as both nations know they need each other.

    Turkey is a NATO member and not 51st US state. It needs good relationship with Russia so closing down Bosphorus is pretty much as unimaginable as it sounds.

    I agree that Russians are not that naive that they would not modernise the Black sea fleet as Turkish navy expands.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  Kimppis on Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:06 am

    I honestly think the title of this thread is... a little misleading. But anyway...

    I just realized that China didn't have more than 10 fully modern destroyers (Type 052C and up) before January 2017. However, their current pace is such that the growth in capability is absolutely exponential. That is, in regards to the number of actually commissioned ships (the initial order for 12 Type 052D was probably already known back in 2012, if not slightly earlier).

    The number of fully modern destroyers (052C, 052D and 055) in active service will be 20+ before the end of this year. So the PLAN went from 10 "Aegis" destroyers before late January 2017 to 20-22 (and that includes 1-2 ships that are basically cruisers) by 31st of December 2019.

    That is absolute madness. Neocons am cry.
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    GarryB

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  GarryB on Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:40 am

    No, fundamentally geographically US fleet is always going to be split into East coast & West coast.

    The USN has responsibilities around the world and will be split all over the place... but then it is the same with everything... the navy units in Pearl Harbour on December 7th 1941 probably didn't really feel they had the full might of the US military behind them as they were ducking and diving to avoid incoming bombs...

    You could turn it around and say that splitting the Russian Naval forces also splits up any attacking force because defeating just one piece will not win you any prizes... in fact you will find that much of the defence of Russian coasts comes from air launched anti ship missiles... which could be rotated around the country in less time than it would take to form up an attacking force...

    Through military & political domination of Panama they have a relatively secure & rapid way to transfer between.

    Which could be easily mined or damaged or simply blocked... more importantly left alone... let them send their ships... say hello Kinzhal and Kh-32 and Zircon...


    Russian fleet is split North/Baltic/Black Sea/Pacific at far flung corners of the country with easily blocked choke points on the exits & large lengths of potentially hostile coastlines between meaning they operate as almost completely separate entities.

    Any carrier group is expected to operate on its own without immediate support... and choke points works both ways...

    But China has a single continuous coastline.

    So one area to mine and bomb... and no back door.

    Russia can transfer boats between several of her bases through inland canals so they are not that isolated...

    Its split into 3 fleet commands but because they're directly adjacent along the same coastline it can be considered essentially one big fleet.

    So what you are almost saying is that they could have one single fleet but they prefer to split the force down into more manageable and perhaps flexible groupings?

    And good luck blocking Bosphorus (let alone Bering strait). Russia would hardly tolerate such a violation of international freedom of passage, but given its good relations with Turkey, its more probable Turkey would block Bosphorus for its western "allies".

    That brings up an interesting point... why hasn't the US rushed a cruiser into the black sea to take advantage of the Sea of Azov situation... did Turkey say no?

    What good relation ? They almost started a war over syria few years ago. Erdogan had no choice to be good with putin since US wanted to remove him. Tomorrow when US/Turkey relation get better, turkey/russia won't be as good as today.

    Confusing... you start by questioning that there is a good relationship between Russia and Turkey ATM, but then talk of a future where relations are not so friendly?

    Bosphorus strait is vital t russia. They won't bet on Erdogan's feelings towards them to keep it open for their ships.

    I would trust Putins skills are keeping civil relations with Turkey more than I would trust Trumps skills at farting and walking at the same time.

    I just realized that China didn't have more than 10 fully modern destroyers

    In a warm moist environment with lots of food, bacteria multiply at an exponential rate.

    The change in an hour is impressive... a day shocking... but eventually they reach the edge of the container, or they outgrow their food supply... or something bigger comes along and recognises the threat and pours bleach on them or eats them.

    On paper from a single cell organism that divides every hour and doubles with each division... in a year you would have a mass the size of the earth... but you don't.

    The transformation and growth is amazing... but only because they went from almost nothing to something and then they caught up... in 3 years time they wont have thousands of destroyers... they might have 40 ships with nothing to do...
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    Isos

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  Isos on Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:37 am

    Confusing... you start by questioning that there is a good relationship between Russia and Turkey ATM, but then talk of a future where relations are not so friendly?

    It was a sarcastic question actually.

    walle83

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  walle83 on Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:45 am

    Kimppis wrote:I honestly think the title of this thread is... a little misleading. But anyway...

    I just realized that China didn't have more than 10 fully modern destroyers (Type 052C and up) before January 2017. However, their current pace is such that the growth in capability is absolutely exponential. That is, in regards to the number of actually commissioned ships (the initial order for 12 Type 052D was probably already known back in 2012, if not slightly earlier).

    The number of fully modern destroyers (052C, 052D and 055) in active service will be 20+ before the end of this year. So the PLAN went from 10 "Aegis" destroyers before late January 2017 to 20-22 (and that includes 1-2 ships that are basically cruisers) by 31st of December 2019.

    That is absolute madness. Neocons am cry.  

    China made this slowly and with alot of testing on different vessels from early 2000 to about 2010.
    Starting with the Type-51B destroyer with steam-turbines back in the late 1990s, then over to the Type-52B design with the more modern gas-turbines but still relying on Russian sensors and weapon systems.
    Then the Type-51C with the Russian S-300 system, basicly a larger variant of the Type-051B. Still relaying heavily on the Russian systems the Chines continued on with the Type-052C destroyer. Now with more domestic weapons and sensors including a Active Phased Array Radar.

    The Chines was satisfied with the destroyer and a serial production was started back in 2010. Then only a few years later a updated vessel was spotted, the Type-052D. Now with a new VLS system capable of launching both cruise, anti-sub and SAM, also a updated Array Radar an a new 130mm gun.

    In 2017 china launched its first Typ-55 destroyer, now producing 2 seperate classes of destroyer at the same time.

    Since 2010 china has launched 4 Type-52C destoyers, 16! Type-52D destroyers and 4 12.000+ tons Type-055 destroyers (cruisers). Add to this about ~20 Type-54A frigates and 40+ Type-056 corvettes i would say the represents an amazing build up that would be hard to match even by the US.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:45 am

    So why has the US split their ships into 6 fleets? There's always one CVN in Japan, often also in Hawaii and in the Gulf. I suppose all 11 should sail together all the time?
    Some of those fleets get ships rotated in & out from the States; Pearl Harbor isn't visited very often by CVNs; when they do, for not more than a few days in port & few weeks at sea. The Gulf was w/o a CVN for a while until just recently. At most, the USN actually deployed 7 CVNs at the same time.
    The VMF now has ships in the Med. Sea 24/7/364; the same may happen soon in the Indian Ocean, after an agreement with India on the use of each other bases. The Black Sea Fleet will become de-facto Red Sea Fleet as well. The NF can reinforce the PF in 2 weeks almost year round with the help from Atomflot icebreakers.
    China isn't interested in militarily retaking of the RFE; she needs to keep her Northern flank peaceful, & prevent the situation of having to fight on 2 or 3 fronts on land & sea with Russia, the US, & its allies. The Russian mil. doctrine allows the use of nukes against even a conventional attack by nuclear armed states & if the survival of the nation is at stake. Russia could use Poseidons to sink all of China's fleets & wipe out most of her coastal population. They can also invade/get invited by Mongolia & outflank China, as in the Soviet times when they had tank divisions stationed there ready to advance on Beijing. China is boxed in by Russia on land just like India is boxed in by China on land. That's why all those 3 countries will avoid fighting each other.

    kumbor

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  kumbor on Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:57 am


    All Delfin class boats are parked up.

    Please, bear in mind that ships are NEVER "PARKED" ANYWHERE. Ships are BASED, ANCHORED, MOORED, etc!
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    verkhoturye51

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    Re: The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    Post  verkhoturye51 on Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:02 pm

    Correct, also they are actually based in Sayda guba. The Olenya guba that I mentioned above hosts GUGI special purpose submarines.

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