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    The rise of China and the threat it poses to the Russian Navy

    ultimatewarrior
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:12 pm

    For sure Chinese navy is way ahead of Russia navy by now. The new Type 055 destroyer is a beast. However, it's a good thing Russia navy is modernizing. At least they have a new ship active.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:40 am

    ultimatewarrior wrote:For sure Chinese navy is way ahead of Russia navy by now. The new Type 055 destroyer is a beast. However, it's a good thing Russia navy is modernizing. At least they have a new ship active.


    way ahead in which sense? defending Chinese coastline? then why Chinese were buying S-400 and Su-35?
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:57 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    ultimatewarrior wrote:For sure Chinese navy is way ahead of Russia navy by now. The new Type 055 destroyer is a beast. However, it's a good thing Russia navy is modernizing. At least they have a new ship active.


    way ahead in which sense? defending Chinese coastline? then  why Chinese were buying S-400 and Su-35?

    In 1991 China was poorer than Russia. Now China is richer than Russia. China got 5th generation fighter jets, Type 055 destroyers, Y-20 transport planes, H-20 bomber is getting released in 2019. Russia don't have new planes, don't have new destroyers, don't have new transports, don't have new bombers. Chinese are way more hard working and disciplined than Russians. Russians used to make fun of Chinese. Well, guess what now?
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:53 am

    Don`t be rude. Isos is only a small kid interested in naval technology, without knowledge and sources!

    Hahahaha... telling him off for being rude and being even ruder yourself...

    Classy... lol!

    A 132m ship supposed to be their naval backbone. They have like 2 "finished". They started this class in 2010 and in 2019 they have like 2 "build" but always testing them and 2 other under construction.

    It is a frigate... it will never be the backbone of the Russian navy.

    The systems and weapons are modular and will be scaled up for larger vessels so it is not unimportant, but once the Destroyers are in service the frigates tend to fade into the background and just do jobs quietly and effectively.

    They also mention Super Gorshkov while no one says what it is. They gave a funny maket with hundreds of VLS that is only a pure joke.

    They have basically said they want a bigger frigate with better armament... where is the big surprise in that?

    And now they are back at the "let's build more normal gorshkov" because it's already hard to build a normal one, let alone a 10m bigger one ...

    No, what they have said is that it makes more sense to make ships now, than to continually want upgrades and improvements and never get any ships into service.

    A bigger ship would be easier to get into service if it uses nuclear propulsion because they can do those...

    Constructions of Grigorovitch and other corvetes are better and faster. Grigorovitch is almost the same size/weight with VLS too.

    Of course it would be easier to make Corvettes.... but you have answered your own question... if a corvette is almost the same size and weight and has the same weapons WTF are they bothering making small frigates.... they need to make their frigates bigger... and I suspect once they get the few frigates they have started into service they will look at bigger better frigates...

    So yeah this class is bullshit.

    So they should just scrap them and forget about Frigates?

    For sure Chinese navy is way ahead of Russia navy by now.

    So people keep saying, but I really don't see any hard evidence of that...

    Which sub do they have that is superior to Borei or Yasen? Or indeed Lada?

    Engines can be installed at the end. They could have build the ships while engines are created.

    So all these ships with no engines... how do you store them... and why the fuck do you pay good money to build a ship that can't fucking move on its own?

    Especially when you could be making other things that can move on their own and you can earn money building...

    Now China is richer than Russia. China got 5th generation fighter jets, Type 055 destroyers, Y-20 transport planes, H-20 bomber is getting released in 2019.

    They claim they are 5th gen fighters, but they have 3rd generation jet engines. The H-20 bomber is going to be a huge improvement but its release will be more like 2025 than 2019... and lets face it, the Tu-22M3M is a huge improvement over the Tu-16... so it really does not prove anything... and the Y-20 is a Ukrainian designed C-17... what has that to do with China?

    Russians used to make fun of Chinese. Well, guess what now?

    I have never heard that.

    More like the west makes fun of Asian people in general... and now the US has realised the threat from China you can bet your ass things wont continue the same for very long... they might start with Tibet with a colour revolution and then perhaps Taiwan... and then China becomes the big bad boogey man in the west, replacing the Soviets in all the new Bond movies...

    You can puff out your chest and claim to be superior to Russia all you want, but I would think cooperation with Russia makes more sense for you and for Russia.

    Unlike the west, Russia wont try to stifle your growth... Russia doesn't care if you succeed. It is better for Russia to have a healthy growing China than a fucked up basket cased closed country like NK...
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:18 am

    GarryB wrote:China you can bet your ass things wont continue the same for very long...

    he is a Chinese?! I thought some atlanticist troll
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:29 am

    ultimatewarrior wrote: In 1991 China was poorer than Russia. Now China is richer than Russia. China got 5th generation fighter jets, Type 055 destroyers, Y-20 transport planes, H-20 bomber is getting released in 2019. Russia don't have new planes, don't have new destroyers, don't have new transports, don't have new bombers. Chinese are way more hard working and disciplined than Russians. Russians used to make fun of Chinese. Well, guess what now?

    richer poorer is off topic here. China has GDP bigger then USA. 5,5 bigger GDP and 10x population  than Russia. China didnt loose 50% of population i 1991 not were during in 90-beginning 2000s   under US occupation. As western flamebaiter I can tell you that neither China nor Russia have reason to compete and fight each other.  And I've never heard Russians were laughing from Chinese.

    As for navy: China builds fleet to ensure its own ovjectives: to conter USN to be able to import food, resources and crude + export stuff.  

    Russia has own objectives: mainly to counter USN and to keep USN at bay. Eventually help destroy continental USA, if needed russia russia russia
    You can believe or not but RuN is great at that.
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    Post  George1 on Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:43 pm

    please stay on topic
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:06 pm

    We can talk about frigates, but at the end of the day for Russia the easiest way to counter the US navy, is not to start producing an enormous number of ships like China is doing.

    High speed aircraft launched missiles are much more efficient ways of dealing with US naval dominance... and sadly... if China wants confrontation with Russia they could also easily deal with any ships China can build too.

    The fact is that Russia wont build Frigates to defeat the US or China, Frigates are useful vessels that do all sorts of jobs inside and outside Russian waters.

    Russia does not need to match the US or China in numbers of ships and to do so would end up with Russia having an enormous number of ships that sit in dock doing nothing because there is nothing for them to do and no crews to man them.

    Having a much smaller but more sophisticated fleet of powerful vessels makes rather more sense.

    Having lots of ships for China is not a bad thing... they have a large population to support it and such ships can start to roam around the world and expand Chinese trade ties with countries a long way away from China.

    It seems to me that foreign countries respect China as being a much fairer trade partner than the west ever was, so I suspect their presence will actually be welcome... but of course the west will try to limit you.

    For Russia as mentioned their Corvettes are getting bigger and are getting to Frigate size, so it is to be expected that Frigates will get bigger too... which is no real surprise as their destroyer designs are cruiser sized... the question is... how big will their cruisers be?
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:48 am

    The thing is that russians show lot of maket of big ships and big projects but produce only small ships and the few big ones needs too much time to be ready. You can even see that most ships of a same class are not the same because they have time to make it a new ship again (buyan, steregouchy, yasen, borei, even gorshkov now with gorshkov M).

    Chinese at least shut their mouth and do their job, good way or bad way we don't know but they have every year as much new ship as the whole french navy.

    Russian should see that they have huge issues with shipbuilding and find solutions instead of showing project that everyone knows won't be produced in the next 20 years. Specially that now even their naval aviation il-38, tu 142 and tu-22 are getting very old. They will need also to replace them. Modernization has a limit.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:02 am

    Off Topic @isos

    geopolitical situation changes a lot recent years, lack of sovied designed engines form former Ukraine and sanctions made took its toll. 20 years with under-funding is also here. Comparing to China is not correct- slash half population of China now, turn big part establishment Chinese quasi states to enemies, hating own kind. Destroy their industry and scientific potential by 50%. Then start economical and info war against them.

    and then compare perhaps? IMHO now Russian started to plan navy with new geopolitical realities. First is not large ships but subs and thingies like aAnagard or Poseidon. Tu-22 is old? then what is B-52 or B-1? nto ot mention Chinese knock offs of Tu-16 being considered modern?


    Once Russia gets back strateguic pairity navy will develop. Noin size of Chinese one Not needed for Russia. Russian navy is not to compere with USN. Off Topic

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    Post  kumbor on Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:48 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote: Off Topic @isos

    geopolitical situation changes a lot recent years, lack of sovied designed engines form former Ukraine and sanctions made took its toll.  20 years with under-funding is also here. Comparing to China is not correct- slash half population of China now, turn big part  establishment Chinese quasi states to enemies, hating own kind. Destroy their industry and scientific potential by 50%. Then start economical and info war against them.

    and then compare perhaps? IMHO  now Russian started to plan navy with new geopolitical realities. First is not large ships but subs and thingies like aAnagard or Poseidon. Tu-22 is old? then what is B-52 or B-1? nto ot mention Chinese knock offs of Tu-16 being considered modern?


    Once Russia gets back strateguic pairity navy will develop. Noin size of Chinese one Not needed for Russia. Russian navy is not to compere with USN.   Off Topic


    Russia needs blue water navy because it is Russia, the biggest country in the world, with exit to all main oceans and seas in the world except the Indian ocean. And the size of the navy depends on the need of Russia to defend itself! If the need is large, the navy must be correspondingly large. However, Russia is mainly continental, not sea power. Meaning that her existence does not depend on the freedom of sea lanes, as it is the case with US and China. There lies also the reason of russian proposal for land route from China to Europe, as well as proposal to Chinese to use Sevmorput more adequately, as such route is much shorter.
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:50 am

    Sorry George is right, this is off topic... will find a place and move the irrelevant posts to that place...
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:52 am

    @GB @Kumbor

    a Happy NY! BTW lets switch to Russian economy or naval  thread? topic is interesting  but I dotn want to annoy George1
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    Post  Hole on Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:41 pm

    Don´t forget that China received 10 Trill. in foreign investment. Add to that nearly 40 Trill. in debt. Biggest mistake of the chinese leadership was to copy the western banking/financial system. Good for shortterm gains but longterm… Mad

    It is correct, Russia has a lot of seas and oceans around it, but the first step of its leadership was always to guard the country. The russian navy can already control all small seas around the country and has enough big ships for longrange missions.
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    Post  hoom on Tue Jan 01, 2019 4:02 pm

    The rise of Chinese navy is super impressive.

    Its not just the big units like carriers, cruisers & destroyers, its a comprehensive build with loads of small Type 022 missile boats, Type 056 ASW corvettes & a big number of Type 054A frigates providing litoral/green water capability massively supplementing/reinforcing the big units.

    The subs are said to be the weakspot but they do have 40+ relatively recent SSKs which is no small thing.

    Not just impressive in numbers but they are all healthy examples of their types: good looking ships with well-balanced armament/sensors in rational layouts & even a bunch of interesting innovations.
    Even if their weapons & sensors are not necessarily the best of type yet (and clearly ongoing rapid quality progression), the numbers & being at least reasonably good gear makes for huge overall capability.

    And its basically all focused on a single continuous coastline.


    Russian navy has some more powerful gear, particularly in nuke subs but any advantage its had previously is getting quickly eroded & quantitatively with the Russian navy split across 4 fleets its in practice a relatively minor player in the region.

    While Russia & China have had their disputes in the past its my understanding that the relationship is in particularly good & improving state recently.
    As long as that relationship remains good (& probably even if it sours/cools off somewhat) I believe Russia will see the Chinese navy if not as a powerful ally, at least as a large distraction for the efforts of 'potential enemies'.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Jan 01, 2019 6:41 pm

    verkhoturye51 wrote:
    Debt tells more when put in the context with the GDP. I speak as a masters student of macroeconomics. Debt to GDP ratio is 100 % in the US and 80 % in Eurozone, while in China only 50 %. This means that they have more than enough power to repay that big debt.



    true but if debt is in different currency than own means that with jum like in Russia bu 100% suddenly you have 100% gdp. Im not an economist to it seems to me that China is actually more depending on USA than Russia.

    Economy is powerful but it still depends mostly on exports. If export terms will worsen (vide Trump now) or stop impressive growth rates stop eithero. And hundreds millions people can loose their jobs or decrease income to level they go to the streets.

    China is also very dependent on food/commodities imports. So blocking its sea lanes makes its economy stop and just matter of survival (food) dangerous.

    So comparing Russia and China makes little sense to me. Both countries are in so different situations that is comparing apples to oranges. OR potatoes to rice lol1 lol1 lol1
    For me most important thing is that Russia and China have no mutually contradict interests in foreseeable future. On strategic level they actually are allies.


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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:21 pm

    hoom wrote:The rise of Chinese navy is super impressive.


    All true, like innovations, scale is all function of economy size and national interests. In case of China import or export is mainly vis sea routes. Without import of food commodities they starve and industry atop. Without possibility to export they choke with their own production,

    Thus their navy has to ensure economical and political independence tasks. Not only coast defense. More like sea control strategy


    Russia has much less resources and different tasks in turn. First is to defend coastline then eventual power projection but as sea denial strategy. I hwat oyu need for coast defense?

    - navy aviation (Tu-22, Tu-142, MiG-31k) with long range AShM

    - subs (Lada, 636, 971, 885, 949)

    - carriers of long range AShMs (like 22800, 20385 or 20631)

    Even with appearance of aircraft carrying ships RuNavy wont be competing with USN or NATO navies. It si built to counter them.


    I believe Russia will see the Chinese navy if not as a powerful ally, at least as a large distraction for the efforts of 'potential enemies'.

    yu know enemy of my enemy... In long term I see Russian and Chinese interests be aligned
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    Post  verkhoturye51 on Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:16 pm

    hoom wrote:
    Russian navy has some more powerful gear, particularly in nuke subs but any advantage its had previously is getting quickly eroded & quantitatively with the Russian navy split across 4 fleets its in practice a relatively minor player in the region.

    Do you think they should join all their fleets into one central command to improve this? They are the only country in the world being present at the same time in the Pacific, Arctic and all around Europe. As NATO admiral recently said Russian navy already dominates Black, Baltic seas and the Arctic.

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    China is also very dependent on food/commodities imports.  So blocking its sea lanes makes its economy stop and just matter of survival (food) dangerous.

    So comparing Russia and China makes little sense to me. Both countries are in so different situations that is comparing apples to oranges. OR potatoes to rice  lol1  lol1  lol1
    For me most important thing is that Russia and China have no mutually contradict interests in foreseeable future.  On strategic level they actually are allies.

    + this difference in size & structure of trade leads to different naval strategies. China must protect its SLOC and is going into a US-like CVN-based navy. While Russia must focus on mainland defense.

    There are some contradicting interests, preventing them officially allyingwith one another. China doesn't support Russia in Ukraine because it could threaten its trade. Not just with Ukraine, but entire West. And why would Russia support Chinese expansion in South China sea? To worsen its relations with Vietnam, Philippines, India? Until Russian relations are based on bilateralism, I see no room for Russo-Chinese alliance. Same goes for China. They just want to fuel their growth with trade. Lots of it, with everyone, no matter if they party with Stolichnaya or Jack Daniels.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:31 pm


    Can someone please explain to me what the f*ck does "Teh Rise of China" have to do with Russian Navy and what is this tread doing in Navy topic?
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    Post  verkhoturye51 on Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:52 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Can someone please explain to me what the f*ck does "Teh Rise of China" have to do with Russian Navy and what is this tread doing in Navy topic?

    Sure, since you asked so politely. Ships of other Pacific countries are the main reason for existance of RuN Pacific fleet. It's good to keep an eye on neighbours to see if you have anough tools in the box.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:11 pm

    verkhoturye51 wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Can someone please explain to me what the f*ck does "Teh Rise of China" have to do with Russian Navy and what is this tread doing in Navy topic?

    Sure, since you asked so politely. Ships of other Pacific countries are the main reason for existance of RuN Pacific fleet. It's good to keep an eye on neighbours to see if you have anough tools in the box.

    Main reason for existence of RuN Pacific Fleet is to protect SSBN bastion in Sea of Ohotsk and to run interference for submarine fleet.

    Ships of other Pacific countries aren't even close to being relevant in that equation.

    Surface vessels would count for nothing in war with China. Unless Russian Fleet decides to sail down south for shits and giggles and ignore it's core purpose.

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    Post  Kimppis on Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:23 pm

    Yeah, I don't think this thread belongs to this section of the forum.

    That said, surprisingly balanced comments here, I don't have much to add.

    Some points:

    SSNs are probably the main weak spot, that is true, but I feel it's often exaggrated. The accuracy of the infamous ONI noise level chart is IMO quite questionable to begin with. But whatever, it's certainly now outdated, because China has improved Type 093s in service. Also, the upcoming Type 095 is the Type 052C/D of Chinese SSNs, i.e. it will be internationally competitive and it will be mass produced, probably from the early 2020s onwards. That means China's SSN fleet will certainly be capable by the late-2020s.

    And most importantly, as hoom already mentioned, China has around 40 modern SSKs. That is by far the largest such fleet in the world.

    China is of course dependent on SLOCs, certainly when it comes to raw materials (though I feel that can be exaggerated as well, as China is not an island, and that's why the OBOR is a thing). However, China's domestic market is already so massive that its overall exports are something like 20% of its nominal (!) GDP and its exports to the US around 4%. Just like with China's military modernization, the change has been very dramatic in only 10 years time. And in both cases, China-naysayers and bashers are only now waking up to that reality, when it's already too late. China's "low-profile" strategy has worked very well for them.

    I would also argue that China and Russia are almost allies in many ways, some disagreements don't change that. The West doesn't want to accept that either, but that's their problem. It's US foreign policy's biggest achievement in a very long time, impressive to say the least.
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    Post  verkhoturye51 on Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:35 pm

    Very Happy

    Bastions are old cold war naval concept. When Gorshkov's and Ustinov's project of expansion of Soviet navy was over in 1985 Pacific fleet operated 50 ballistic missile submarines. Today 3. And we're talking that cold war is back.

    Besides Japan and S. Korea have pretty good navies and are probably the main reason to have the fleets HQ in Vladivostok and not more northwards where access to the ocean is more secure. And no reason to be afraid of China with Onyx low flying birds.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:42 pm

    verkhoturye51 wrote:Very Happy

    Bastions are old cold war naval concept. When Gorshkov's and Ustinov's project of expansion of Soviet navy was over in 1985 Pacific fleet operated 50 ballistic missile submarines. Today 3. ....

    3?

    They have that many Boreis alone with another one coming up.

    Did you forget all the Deltas that make up rest of the SSBN fleet?

    As for bastion concept, it's not obsolete if it works.
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    Post  verkhoturye51 on Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:48 pm

    All Delfin class boats are parked up in Olenya guba naval base (Northern fleet). Pacific fleet has only 2 Boreys and 1 Kalmar class.

    Bastion is heavily defended area. If you defend 50 SSB/SSBNs with 100 other brand new submarines you can call it heavy defense, but otherwise...

    And regarding Chinese submarines - perhaps Garmoniya could be placed there, too, if everythings works out ok in the Barents sea.

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