SeigSoloyvov wrote:ISO that is beyond wrong thinking if you think Putin is going to let the Russian's Military attack the Turks first, if they attack the Russians sure then but other then that no.
I don't even know how you think that, It's not going to happen, Turk's won't leave because russia said so. Russa isn't going to start bombing them, keep dreaming.
They will continue fighting because the syrian army will not just sit idle as you idiocally suggest they should do for fear of Turkey army.. if a strong man armed to the teeth a stranger enters in your house and you are there with your family and you demand him to leave but don't listen and start killing your family.. will you say oh not he is so powerful,i will sit down and allow him to kill my family? So as yourself that question First , if you will allow your life and your family life to be taken without a fight? if the answer is you will defend yourself no matter what.. even if hells open . then so the Syrian army will do the same too..
And because the terrorist will Not stop , targeting civilians at Syrian army position..
then they will return fire is their country and they have the right to kick Turkey and Alqaeda out of their lands and so any army who stand in the middle Whether is turkey or Americans or Israel.. their fire will be returned and more advances (and tactical retreats) + advances will continue.. So Turkey will face an attrition war ,just like the terrorist.. If Turkey army try to enter in Syrian army zones.. their tanks will be very visible , and easy targets.. Turkey will not have close air support in Syria ,their planes will be shut down if try to do it..,but Syria will have from their own planes and Russian airforce.. All things said , Syrian army with Russian help is on a better position to repel a Turkey army attack.. With Russia help , it will be very difficult for Turkey or the terrorist ,to hold a territory for long.. specially if they continue targeting Syrians cities every day.. with artillery.. Just a dozen of civilians died yesterday ,from the Rebels artillery. So remember that Syrian army have no choice ,
but to fight.. or die doing nothing and losing territory in their country.. What will make the difference in Syria favor if is Syria do things little by little ,step by step .. with as less casualties as possible..
So what will you do if Alqaeda or Turkey or Israel invades your city with heavy weapons and you only have light guns? you will fight , there is no question about it , if there is no other option.. and no place to Run ,you will defend yourself..
At worse ,what could happen is , Russia airforce is forced to start bombing Turkey army.. in retaliation for their attacks.. on Syria army.. Will Erdogan risk a war with Russia in defense of Alqaeda and a small piece of land? Russia neither can leave.. and abandon an ally after
offered help with their military.. The only one that can retreat is Erdogan and the terrorist who invaded idlib.. but Russia and Syria can't allow terrorist to continue targeting their bases and civilians.. Can Russia beat the hell of Turkey army? Of course it can.. Russia can beat the hell of Turkey and destroy its entire army... So erdogan options are more limited ,than Putin options.. Russia have a very powerful military that can force Erdogan to retreat
using lethal force..
In short and medium term ,Turkey 100k army deployed at Syrian borders ,will have a huge advantage in ground forces and could force if they send a full scale invasion through its border and declare war against Syria and Russia.. and IRAN..
for sure Russian army will be on numbers disadvantage.. but if Turkey declare war on Russia , The Russian airforce will sink the entire navy of ERdogan in one day, in the black sea.. and will continue bombing Turkey most important assets and military bases and powerplants ,leaving Turkey in darkness day and night with impunity ,forcing erdogan to retreat and leave Syria in a powerful Asymetric response
.. and NATO will not come in the help of Alqaeda in IDLIB or even less Turkey.. Most Europe and Greece will side with Russia . If Erdogan try to use force to make Syrian army retreat. it will face lethal force back. and it will be self defense.. because Syria is defending their territory and Erdogan have no legality to be with an army in Syria..
All said , Russia and Syria have better possibilities to come with the upper hand in any scenario.. As long the Syrian army manage to do it in a slow way ,and with as lowest casualties possible.. Russian military , for sure already have war plans to fight Turkey in case they betray Russia again.. and Turkey stand not a chance against Russian airforce and missile forces.. IRAN will also declare war on Turkey if they go against Russia.. So it will be a war Turkey have no chance to win.. If it can't defend their own cities from Russian airforce.. They bomb Russian base.. then Russia bomb Turkey capital.. to send a strong message to Erdogan. they bomb Syrian army..then Russia provide coordinates to target Turkey positions.. with long range rocket artillery .. So make sure ,as much i dislike Putin,as leader.. he is not an ignorant in military matters.. and they had to have plans for years , in case Erdogan backstab Putin again and target Russian military. will be a defacto declaration of war.. thats how it will be seen.. and Turkey will be flatened to the ground and left without a navy if they target again Russian airforce. And Erdogan and turkey military will be forced to surrender ,by the destruction Russia will cause to Turkey navy and economic infrastructure and military bases. . in fact is more likely Erdogan risk assassination of its own generals if goes to a war against IRAN and Russia... Only US ,UK and the snake of Israel could join in a limited way the side of Turkey.. they know the risk are very high on a nuclear confrontation that they will end losing.
So like i said , ERdogan have no chance to defeat Assad and syrian army with Russia and IRAN helping them with close air support.. cruise missiles and other weapons.. Russia have air domination over IDLIB.. Turkey is without close air support.. is that simple.
So the only way Erdogan have to impose its will on syria is declaring war on Russia ,IRAN and Syria openly.. and this is when more faster the war will end.. the black sea totally dominated by Russia and Russia will be flatenning Turkey naval bases ,warships ,airports and economic zones.. Truly Erdogan will surrender in less than 24 hours in a fight with Russia. and this is when the real war will end ,when Turkey close the aid to Alqaeda in IDLIB ,without food ,without munition ,or weapons they can't continue fighting for more than a month or two. or just weeks if positions of all munitions warehouse of the terrorist .given to Russia.
THis is not saying it will be easy for Russia.. im fully aware that technically speaking if Erdogan goes full retard mode.. he could even Capture Russian base sending 50k -100k strong army soldiers with 500 tanks.. in a fast speed war ,forcing Russian military into a tactical retreat.. but the russian response ..
will break the arms and back of Erdogan.. All Turkey territory ,powerplants ,military bases ,navy will be owned by Russian airforce ,navy and missile forces.. Russia can make it incredibly too expensive for Erdogan ,any major adventure on Syria. To reverse the achievements of Russia.. Russia can even invade Istanbul ,destroy the bridge.. let the turkey army swim..
if want to fight..
and kick the Turkey army there with Greece secret support .. in case of full scale war.. and use Istanbul as a bargaining ship ,for negotiations for Erdogan immediate leaving of Syria and including reparations damages on Russia for his illegal war on Syria..
Putin have far more options than Erdogan to win in Syria in case Turkey declares war on Russia ,using assymetric responses.. and is more likely Erodgan will end assassinated if he give such an order to go against Russia ,IRAN and Syria..in a full scale war.. that they can't win ,if Russia airforce can continue endlessly targeting every city military base and powerplant in Turkey with cruise missiles.. Idlib will not be worth of it , Risking a full scale war with Syria..that could go nuclear.. and Turkey will completely lose.. and Turkey missile forces have no chance to cause major damages ,if any to Russia.. with the heavy fortified area denial zones Russia have been preparing for years in souther Russia and Crimea..
Turkey have a strong army.. and airforce too , but his nation defenses and navy is extremely weak.. and very vulnerable to any cruise missile attack. this is why they want to buy Patriots defenses and S-400s. So Russia can continue sinking Turkey warships , one by one , demanding Erdogan to stop its war on Syria or else they will be without a navy.. and i don't think Erdogan popularity will be very high , if he lose his entire navy to Russian navy and airforce after declaring war on Russia....
This is just using the conventional war scenario ..because if Russia use their ultimate force ,their tactical nukes Turkey will surrender as soon see one mushroom cloud wiping completely his military naval bases.
and So Erdogan will have to surrender inconditionally and accept all demands of Russia ,in
change for Russia not beating them more..
Russia can invade Istanbul and hold it.. with Greece protecting their rear.. and can help cyprus recover their lost territory .. to turkey too.. Turkey is an example of a real paper tiger.. Strong army and nothing else..
Turkey F-16s will be shooting gallery for Russian Su-35's airforce..and Russian navy in black sea.. Historically speaking, Turkey and Russia fought many wars,, and they lost all of them.
and i don't see any possible for Turkey to win in a war versus Russia.. perhaps Israel supplying Turkey with nukes to help them in a fight vs Russia.. but that will be the total destruction of not only Turkey but also Israel.
and in such a war , the myth of NATO being a powerful alliance with end forever.. is not united alliance ,greece will not side with Turkey against Russia.. more likely Greece will connect their s-300s to Russia network ,to provide information and help in secret Russia to target turkey Planes. and most of Europe will not fight Russia..
When Turkey shot down the Russian plane ,killing RUssian soldiers..and he visit NATO headquaters for support in case of war with Russia.. (just like i expected it.. NATO headquaters told him .. You are on your own..
NATO will never risk a war with Russia that can go nuclear ,that is an offensive war and not in defense of any european country. that is a war they can't justify ,the risk of so many casualties.. This is why Ukraine will NEVER be part of NATO.. and maybe Georgia neither..
because will be too embarrasing for NATO ,that Russia invades a NATO country and they do nothing.. So they want to be in a position to defend Ukraine in the worse possible place in the world ,that Russia is stronger.. near its borders.. and so Americans and UK and Canada the usual stooges will be in a huge disadvantage fighting a full scale war with Russia so close to Russian borders and in the black sea ,where Russia will have total domination..
Russian S-400s air defenses including crimea and eastern border.. will cover 70% of Ukraine airspace and 100% if receive belarus help.. So US ,UK and the usual stooges will never go to a war ,if their enemies will control the airspace they plan to fight and Russia can easily target day and night non stop ,their military bases with long rage artillery and so many advanced missiles.