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    USA & Israeli involvement in Transcaucasia aimed at RF & Iran

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:57 pm

    A bold article about Bolton attempted dictat to Baku & Erevan: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2508688.html

    Israel was/is helping the Kurds in Iraq & could do the same in destabilzed Iran:
    https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Why-Does-Israel-Support-an-Independent-Iraqi-Kurdistan--20170923-0023.html
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/25/kurds-say-they-have-no-friends-but-the-mountains-now-they-have-israel-and-that-could-cause-them-grief/
    https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/why-israel-is-cheering-on-iraqi-kurds-push-for-independence
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/14/israel-becomes-first-state-back-independent-kurdistan/
    https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/israel-supporting-kurdish-secession-iraq-171006105039473.html
    https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/02/middleeast/iraqi-kurdistan-israel-support/index.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan%E2%80%93Israel_relations
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurds#Iran
    https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/kurds-of-iran-the-missing-piece-in-the-middle-east-puzzle

    Good luck enlisting Armenians & Azeris against Iran!
    Russia has more leverage there than the US & Israel combined.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 28, 2018 12:26 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add links)
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:48 am

    Everything America has done in the region in the last two decades has backfired... either right away or after a bit of a delay... I can't see them getting anything right any time soon... certainly by the people in charge at the moment... except by accident.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:24 am

    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2509936.html https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2509060.html
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2509383.html

    Trump administration plants US flag in Armenia
    In both public statements and private meetings, the US national security adviser made it clear that Washington is now closely scrutinizing Armenia’s relationship with Iran, and seeks to enlist Armenian support to apply “maximum pressure” in order to “squeeze Iran,” as Bolton openly admitted.
    Bolton also informed the Armenian government that the Trump administration intends to enforce tightened sanctions “very vigorously,” adding a warning that the Armenian border with Iran will be “a significant issue.” ..it is now clear that the past practice of the United States “looking the other way” as Armenia deepened its ties and trade with Iran is over. This is despite the fact that Armenia has consistently conformed to previous sanctions and only saw Iran as an essential alternative to depending too much on Russia.
    But there were two other rather strange twists to Bolton’s visit to Armenia. First, in a rather vague and abrupt reference that would be a substantial shift in US policy, Bolton announced that Washington would “look at” potential arms sales to Armenia, despite the American position as a key mediator of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan. And with Russia as the primary arms supplier to both sides in that conflict, such an off-hand statement is certain to trigger Russian unease.
    The second twist was even more bizarre, as President Trump’s “private lawyer” Rudolph Giuliani arrived in Armenia just days before Bolton, on a “private visit” to attend a conference devoted to the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, and during which he hailed Armenia’s potential role as a “bridge” between the Eurasian Union and the EU. While Giuliani’s optimism for such cooperation with the West was perhaps designed to offset Bolton’s tougher talk in Moscow days earlier, like everything else in the Trump Administration, the outlook for US policy and the real implications for Armenia remain as unpredictable as ever.
    After Bolton takes aim at Russia and Iran, is Armenia the collateral damage?
    ..the notion that Yerevan would orient its relations toward Azerbaijan – which it regards as an existential threat – around the U.S.'s policy of isolating Iran fell flat among Armenians.
    “John Bolton, or anyone for that matter, cannot speak on my behalf,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told a news conference following Bolton's visit. “They are moving forward with the logic that they have some kind of ownership of the Karabakh issue, and now they are attempting to sell it to me, without asking my opinion.” ..the combined effect of the Mills and Bolton statements added to a sense in Yerevan that the new Pashinyan government's tentative steps toward the West are being repaid by a conspicuous lack of sympathy toward Yerevan's position. On top of that, the Trump administration has evinced little interest in the Caucasus – even by the low standards of the U.S. – and little indication that Washington has anything to offer Armenia in exchange for the dramatic moves Bolton proposed. ..The Kremlin, naturally, did not take kindly to Bolton's attempts to drive a wedge between Armenia and Russia; Yerevan is Moscow's closest ally in the Caucasus and Armenia depends heavily on subsidized Russian weaponry. ..“Incidentally, not all of John Bolton’s statements in Yerevan deserve to be criticized. In his October 25 interview to Radio Liberty, he made a wonderful comment: 'I think that’s really fundamental to Armenia exercising its full sovereignty and not being dependent on or subject to excessive foreign influence.' It would be good if John Bolton thinks over the meaning of his own words.”


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:19 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add a quote)
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:36 pm

    Armenia update:
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2513149.html

    Erdogan and Aliyev make a difficult choice between Trump and Putin https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2513078.html

    A war between Baku & Yerevan may indeed wreck Iran-Russia-Turkey cooperation in Syria & lead Iran & Turkey to aid the opposite sides, destabilizing Iranian Azerbaijan & possibly other ethnic regions. After that, those areas will need to be "liberated".
    Libyan style "no-fly zone" deja vu!
    But Russia, China & Pakistan may intervene- their economic & security interests will be negatively affected if they don't.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:11 am

    what trash article.

    There is no pro western government in Azerbaijan.  Western governments are trying to pin Armenia and Azerbaijan into their sphere but they know they cant.  And Azerbaijan is very much reliant on Russia.

    Its a silly notion, no doubt.  But Turkey has little love for US and right now, Turkey is going to form their own group by brining in Azerbaijan and other nations like Uzbekistan and the like.  But they will be their own entity, neither pro east or west.  Azerbaijan has been very cooperative with Moscow in the last decade.

    Actually, with Azerbaijan, they were also interested, like Iran, in preventing US assets from entering Caspian sea. So hence why they voted in favor of preventing that.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:00 am

    Azerbaijan isn't 100% pro-Russian either as it's friendly to Ukraine  & Georgia, didn't recognize Abkhazia & S. Ossetia + still has good relations with Israel, even after the IL-22 incident.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan%E2%80%93Ukraine_relations#Military_cooperation
    https://www.azernews.az/business/139419.html
    https://www.azernews.az/business/139482.html
    https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-how-pro-israel-jews-became-azerbaijan-s-secret-weapon-in-washington-1.6033307
    https://www.jns.org/azerbaijan-and-israel-a-top-muslim-ally-for-the-jewish-state-says-ambassador/
    https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-how-pro-israel-jews-became-azerbaijan-s-secret-weapon-in-washington-1.6033307

    Armenia getting further isolated in region - head of Azerbaijan's PACE delegation [UPDATE]
    The situation there is in flux, but the Azeris know that Russia &/ Iran can intervene should they cross their lines.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Nov 04, 2018 5:40 am

    But that is what I was getting at. Azerbaijan is in no camp besides Turkey's and their own. They have money, a lot of it. Decent sized population, and good development. They are not reliant on Russia but do do a significant amount of economic work with Russia especially in the oil and gas industry.

    But they also want to instill their influence. Cant blame them.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:46 am

    Now, Georgia feels it's the right time to do this:
    Georgian Orthodox Church takes aim at Armenian churches
    I have no doubt they'll support Azerbaijan against Armenia.
    But Russia may intervene & perhaps fight Georgia again.
    CSTO update: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2514034.html
    It is possible that for Azerbaijan the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh is still being pushed into the background because of the unpredictable development of events around Iran. At the same time, Yerevan has already stated that it will use the right of veto if the issue of accepting Baku in the CSTO arises, recalling that, like in the EAEU, all decisions are made on the basis of consensus. That's the way it is. But we still do not know what conditions are spelled out in the status of an observer at the Organization and whether consensus is needed. This is the first. The second. There is Russia's desire to bring together the positions of Azerbaijan and Armenia and minimize the threat of renewed hostilities between them. The start has already been given. On September 28, on the margins of the CIS summit in Dushanbe, the conversation between the President of Azerbaijan was held with the mediation of Russian President Vladimir PutinIlham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan . The sides then expressed their commitment to the negotiations on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, the strengthening of the cease-fire regime to prevent incidents on the contact line of troops in the conflict zone and on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And we do not exclude that the dialogue between Putin and Pashinyan in this direction will continue in Astana. ..It is not by chance that Iran expressed a desire to obtain observer status in the CSTO, realizing that clouds are gathering over the region. Against this background, Moscow would not like to throw Azerbaijan into a geopolitical whirlpool, therefore, so far, the problem of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the hostility between Baku and Yerevan has been out of the question. ..
    As for Russia, it cannot be a geopolitical hostage of Armenia; it is important for Moscow to maintain good relations with both Yerevan and Baku. Therefore, Russia will look for options to reconcile the conflicting parties, and the further course of events for many may be unexpected.
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2514001.html

    Trump cornering Aliyev https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2514524.html

    https://eurasianet.org/iran-sanctions-herald-energy-trouble-for-caucasus-nations


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:28 am; edited 3 times in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:31 pm




    Latest update: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2521329.html
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Nov 20, 2018 5:25 am

    Just shows the difference between Russia and the US.

    Russia prefers good relations with all factions where possible, while the US tends to pick a side and then defend that side no matter what... ie Kosovo or Israel.


    The difference is that Russia is much better at negotiating compromises... look at its cooperation with Israel and Turkey and Iran and Assad in Syria... if it was the US Idlib would already have been levelled and any problems created by that would be ISISs fault... not Americas...

    Governments and people in the region notice this... the western media hasn't been told it by the US state department so they have no idea.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:08 pm

    Trump administration hawks putting US on course for war with Iran, report warns
    A new air war will succeed in destabilizing Iran & Transcaucasia but the outcome won't be the 1 those hawks expect, just like with Iraq, Libya & Syria. on the whole, Iran has more friends than the US in the ME & Eurasia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Iran#Post-War_period_(1988%E2%80%93present)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Iran#Asia

    Notably, among them r: Iraq, Turkey, Qatar, Lebanon, Syria, Pakistan, India, China, Japan, Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, N & SK, Indonesia, Thailand, & Vietnam:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan%E2%80%93Iran_relations#Significant_re-improvement_of_relations_since_2014
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Thailand_relations
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Vietnam_relations#Today
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Japan_relations
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:23 pm

    Why US base in Georgian Vaziani? [25 кm from Tbilisi]
    Washington intends to merge Greater Middle East with Greater Caucasus
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2523143.html
    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%92%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8

    The distance from Tbilisi to Tehran is 880 km or 547 miles or 475 nm
    https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/distanceresult.html?p1=371&p2=246

    They may put Tomahawk CMs there & use them against Iran.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed Nov 21, 2018 10:35 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:17 pm

    The US putting land attack cruise missiles in Georgia will get Russian attention... they had better expect some really serious responses... perhaps Iran will get MiG-31s and R-37Ms, or S-400s and TORs.


    Maybe even assisting Iranian forces in Syria to locate near Israel and offering them full air defence support... lets see how good these F-35s really are...
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:27 pm

    They'll be delivered there shortly/just before being used by bombers. MiG-31s, R-37Ms, S-400s & TORs will take time to induct & train personnel for.
    If the US & Israel succeed in destabilizing Iran, a repeat of the Syrian or Libyan scenario is possible. Russia & possibly China will be drawn in that conflict too.
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:51 am

    Perhaps what the Iranian secret police should do is round up all pro western Iranians and put them in jail... where they cannot insight insurrection... and then start negotiating with Russia a few long term loans to be paid in oil for military equipment.

    I am pretty sure the Iranians could do with a few factories to licence produce old simple model Su-30s in large numbers to replace their F-14s.

    Su-30s are not expensive and could be made in large numbers, and I think they could get together with the Russians and joint develop new technology radar sets for the aircraft.

    Iranian production of R-77 would also dramatically improve their ability to defend their own airspace...

    And of course the basic warning that any attack on Iran would lead to an immediate attack on US and Israeli forces in the region in retaliation...

    To reach Iran from Georgia they would have to fly over Russian airspace to get to the Caspian, or over Armenia or Azerbaijan, or over Turkey... the obvious retaliation would be to start supplying anyone who wants to fight US troops in Syria, Iraq, or Afghanistan with TOW and Stinger knockoffs produced in Iran...

    Not to mention helping Pakistanis shoot down US drones...
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Nov 24, 2018 3:42 am

    You guys seem to forget that the only reason why Tbilisi wasn't taken in the 8/8/08 war was because of VVP's and VDV's restraint. Plan a missile base in Georgia? Well South Ossetians and Abkhanzians carry out a series of sneak attacks and sabotage that cripples the Georgian military, which forces them to negotiate. How much more sanctions can they throw? They've completely blown their wad with that already.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:58 am

    ..the Iranians could do with a few factories to licence produce old simple model Su-30s in large numbers to replace their F-14s.
    China could also supply them J-10/-11s, & for le$$.
    To reach Iran from Georgia they would have to fly over Russian airspace to get to the Caspian, or over Armenia or Azerbaijan, or over Turkey...
    They could fly low over borders & also use stealth helos to deliver/extract SF/pilots.
    But mostly the base will be used for logistics & training once a civil war starts in Iran.
    magnumcromagnon wrote:You guys seem to forget that the only reason why Tbilisi wasn't taken in the 8/8/08 war was because of VVP's and VDV's restraint.
    But holding it or installing a puppet ruler wasn't sustainable as it would trigger a guerrilla Chechen/Afghan style war. The same with Kiev in 2014.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:14 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:You guys seem to forget that the only reason why Tbilisi wasn't taken in the 8/8/08 war was because of VVP's and VDV's restraint.
    But holding it or installing a puppet ruler wasn't sustainable as it would trigger a guerrilla Chechen/Afghan style war. The same with Kiev in 2014.

    The point now isn't for them to install a puppet, but to make them realize they can't keep a missile base safe (or the secrets that they contain in them) from sabotage, which in turn makes the Georgians negotiate, and the Yanks yell sanctions. It makes it also clear that a eagle feather sweater can't keep them warm, which is a strong message to other allies.
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:28 am

    China could also supply them J-10/-11s, & for le$$.

    The point is not the cost... the point is the local production and therefore control of the design.

    They could get together with Sukhoi and adapt the design a little to suit their own specific needs... the way the Su-30MKI was adapted for India etc.

    Producing their own aircraft will also mean control of replacement production and of course the ability to replace or repair parts themselves.

    The only thing is that they would need to buy the engines from Russia.... but if they buy extra they could put some into an F-5 upgrade that is a bit like an F-20...

    They could fly low over borders & also use stealth helos to deliver/extract SF/pilots.
    But mostly the base will be used for logistics & training once a civil war starts in Iran.

    Yeah, great and when evidence shows it was US troops based in Georgia that started it... then that base becomes a legitimate target for Iranian ballistic missiles... but why would the US care about that... not their problem... not their country...

    But holding it or installing a puppet ruler wasn't sustainable as it would trigger a guerrilla Chechen/Afghan style war. The same with Kiev in 2014.

    Don't be a dick head... Kiev 2014 was a US financed coup that had nothing to do with Russia... Chechnia is a much better example of what happens when they put their own Russia friendly Chechen in power... in Georgia it would have been Russian friendly Georgians that would be put in place.

    In actual fact of course US bases in Georgia used to destabilise Iran and create a civil war would be considered just as dangerous to try to do the same in Russia so I rather suspect South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be invited to join the Russian federation and that relationship sealed with a few really serious military bases too.

    The point now isn't for them to install a puppet, but to make them realize they can't keep a missile base safe (or the secrets that they contain in them) from sabotage, which in turn makes the Georgians negotiate, and the Yanks yell sanctions. It makes it also clear that a eagle feather sweater can't keep them warm, which is a strong message to other allies.

    Would be interesting to see how useful those Humvees they acquired in Georgia in 08 were in their development of C4IR systems... I doubt they copied them but having new net centric systems to look at and see what they are capable of can be very useful... was probably also useful for developing jamming systems too.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Nov 25, 2018 5:17 am

    They could get together with Sukhoi and adapt the design a little to suit their own specific needs... the way the Su-30MKI was adapted for India etc.
    That may take some time to set up & then those plants may be bombed, killing many civilians. Iran tries to present as few targets worth destroying as possible & buries those sites underground; digging caverns isn't cheap nor easy & the entrances can be bombed, sealing everything inside.
    The Su-30s could be supplied as kits to be assembled, just like the Su-27s were to China before she ordered the Su-30MKKs. I don't think Iran has $ to pay Russia for their licence production. It may not even be the best suitable fighter for them to produce in large #s; if so, it's not worth to waste $ on setting it up & is better to buy them.
    OTH, they already operate many MiG-29s, so the MiG-35 will be a better choice in the near term.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Nov 25, 2018 3:30 pm

    I would figure maybe allowing them to have shells with the prospects of adding their own avionics may be best solution. Or outright assembly as said. Su-27SKM's or Su-30SM variant would be best option and give Iran a solid multipurpose fighter jet.

    Iran has lots of money, there is no doubt about that. They shell out money when they can if the options are available. It would have been interesting to see then shell out that kind of money on domestic development instead of going the slow route which lead them to nothing but a copy of F-5.
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    Post  ATLASCUB on Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:39 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:I would figure maybe allowing them to have shells with the prospects of adding their own avionics may be best solution.  Or outright assembly as said.  Su-27SKM's or Su-30SM variant would be best option and give Iran a solid multipurpose fighter jet.

    Iran has lots of money, there is no doubt about that.  They shell out money when they can if the options are available.  It would have been interesting to see then shell out that kind of money on domestic development instead of going the slow route which lead them to nothing but a copy of F-5.

    Their approach makes more sense if you're looking at it from the perspective of growing a local industry. Good for manufacturing and engineers - good jobs - and keeps the money home (most of it at least). That's not to say that the F-5 will fill all the holes in their air-force but it's a solid first step. They still need air superiority fighters only Russia can provide - in terms of quality/money/availability trade off.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:47 am

    The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force is considering the purchase of Pakistani-made JF-17 Thunder fighter jets to progressively replace its ageing F-14 and MiG-29 fighter jets. Shortly before, Iran counted to sign a contract with Russia to buy the Sukhoi Su-30SM fighter jets. But because of the influence of the United States and several European countries, the deal never took place.
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:56 am

    I don't think Russia wants Dollars to settle payments in... right now Russia could probably accept oil as payment for Iranian purchases, which would suit Russia and Iran.

    And no one in their right mind would attempt to bomb factories in Iran that might have Russian specialists there... why would they risk entering airspace with S-300 systems to stop production of aircraft?

    Russia could sell them a batch of Su-27SMs to replace a number of aircraft and use the engine as the basis to develop a new more capable bigger version of the F-5 much the same way the Americans did with the F-20.

    Once they have a slightly larger small aircraft in service then they just need a replacement for the F-14, so Su-30s are not brand new but have enormous potential without costing too much.

    They have enormous growth potential that could come from Russia or from Iran in terms of new features and even ordinance.

    Irans ability to defend itself is important to Russia because of their planned trade route from India through Iran to the Caspian sea to Russia.
    Tsavo Lion
    Tsavo Lion

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    USA & Israeli involvement in Transcaucasia aimed at RF & Iran Empty Re: USA & Israeli involvement in Transcaucasia aimed at RF & Iran

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:56 am

    Why not also buy MiG-31s &/ Su-34s to replace their F-4s & Su-24s? They could be used as interceptors, recon., mini AWACS & fighter-bombers against land & sea targets.
    UPDATE: https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2533867.html


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:55 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)

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