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    Russia-Turkey S-400 missile deal

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    Post  GarryB on Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:03 am

    Turkey provides parts for F-35s...

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/f-35-project-to-earn-turkey-12-billion-46581

    It is supposed to earn about 12 billion over the full production period with about 3,100 F-35s being made, but if the US refuses to deliver F-35s to them because they are buying S-400s what happens with the parts they are supplying to other F-35s?
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:02 am

    Maybe they will still manufacture them and make money off of it and they can simply move to developing their own jet using similar part.
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    Post  LMFS on Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:23 am

    Removing Turkey from the supply chain of the F-35 would also create serious delays for the program, or that was at least the case some months ago. Maybe US is working on a contingency plan to substitute them, they were threatened with their whole participation in the program being at risk if they buy the S-400.
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    Post  Guest on Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:10 pm

    GarryB wrote:Turkey provides parts for F-35s...

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/f-35-project-to-earn-turkey-12-billion-46581

    It is supposed to earn about 12 billion over the full production period with about 3,100 F-35s being made, but if the US refuses to deliver F-35s to them because they are buying S-400s what happens with the parts they are supplying to other F-35s?

    Some other EU partner would just jump in, there are more than few companies eager to get such contract. Fokker would praise the day such thing happens.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:43 am

    Militarov wrote:
    GarryB wrote:Turkey provides parts for F-35s...

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/f-35-project-to-earn-turkey-12-billion-46581

    It is supposed to earn about 12 billion over the full production period with about 3,100 F-35s being made, but if the US refuses to deliver F-35s to them because they are buying S-400s what happens with the parts they are supplying to other F-35s?

    Some other EU partner would just jump in, there are more than few companies eager to get such contract. Fokker would praise the day such thing happens.

    You make it seem like it's that easy. Yes, in theory another supplier could pick up the slack, but if it were to come to it this would just be yet another problem that's floated to the service, of what seems like and endless line of new problems, far from isolated incident as well. Even if another supplier came through, that doesn't address the issue that yet another major NATO military power would drop out of the problem program, right around the time when France and Germany declared they will leave the F-35 program and create their own 5th-gen competitor. If Turkey is cut out, that would make 3 major NATO powers that abandoned the program, which would see the cost per plane rise significantly, which would make the remaining participants acquire less planes because of the rise in cost, and so on an so forth. The problems seem to come out the blue ever 4 months, it's like a death by thousand cuts!
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    Post  dino00 on Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:19 am

    Turkey will buy the second batch of C-400 from Russia, if the United States refuses to supply Patriot - Foreign Minister

    Istanbul. April 10th. INTERFAX - Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt авavuşoлуlu said that Ankara could buy a second batch of C-400 anti-aircraft missile systems from Russia if Washington refuses to sell the Patriot missile defense system to Ankara, the Anadolu news agency reported on Wednesday.
    The foreign minister said that if the United States refuses to sell Turkey Patriot’s missile defense to Turkey, it can purchase a second batch of S-400 or other missile defense systems,” the agency quotes the minister in its microblog on Twitter.
    The Foreign Minister also noted that Ankara will find a replacement for the F-35 fighter jets. "In case it does not succeed in acquiring the F-35, Turkey will purchase similar aircraft from other countries. And this will continue until the construction of fifth-generation domestic fighters begins," said M. Chavusoglu.

    https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=505836&lang=RU
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    Post  Kimppis on Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:42 pm

    No more comments? I'm surprised. From a pro-Russian point of view this whole mess is very entertaining, no matter what ends up happening.

    For instance, back in March, Mr. Martyanov still doubted whether the deal would actually go through all the way. I agree that the "Turkey bailing out" scenario is still quite possible, but this is win-win for Russia regardless, it's all extra for no cost whatsoever and great PR.

    This makes S-400 and Russian military tech look really good no matter what, and it makes NATO look like the disunited US MIC protection racket that it actually is. lol1

    Martyanov's piece, btw (again, from March 5): https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2019/03/does-russia-really-want-to-sell-s-400.html

    Western MSM keeps writing about "celebrations in the Kremlin" when anything "bad" happens (that is, to the "neoliberal US-led order"), but for once this might actually be accurate:

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    Post  LMFS on Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:10 pm

    I guess nothing very relevant has happened, apart from Turkey slowly sliding more and more in Eastern block's arms, that is why there have been no more comments. We still need to see the S-400 delivery to happen and the US reaction in case it does. But there are some elements IMO that deserve comment either way:

    > Both sides Turkey and US are not ready for a loss of face and both are doubling down in asserting themselves. To unravel this is going to be tricky, if they are to keep Turkey in the F-35 program.
    > I guess the Russian assessment of the US side as "not agreement-capable" is sinking in. A bad deal with the Russians is better than being thrown under the bus by US at any moment. There is no way of building up a sensible policy for Turkey while having to heed US whims.
    > The volume of projects of Turkish companies in Russia and general level of exchanges is big enough to consider these ties (and in general the ones with Eastern economies) relevant enough to be fostered even if at the expenses of the relation with the West.
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    Post  Vladimir79 on Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:15 pm

    Turkey is set to be the next Russian welfare state.

    https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-russia/russia-may-give-turkey-10-percent-gas-price-reduction-report
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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:35 pm

    Vladimir79 wrote:Turkey is set to be the next Russian welfare state.

    https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-russia/russia-may-give-turkey-10-percent-gas-price-reduction-report

    What I find interesting is how Russia is the one that is classified as guilty on the prices that the other nations agreed to signing.  Like how Ukraine won various court cases against Russia in "international courts" because they signed a bad deal.

    So what is the point of signing a deal in the first place then?  You know an international court in the west will be biased towards Russia.  So in that case, state in the contract it is final deal and no international court holds rule over it.  If they refuse to pay, refuse to provide service.

    But Turkey knows what it is doing.  It knows its only route is to Russia so they will at least try to play hardball anyway before they have no choice in the end.
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:46 am

    Russia doesn't have to design and build gas, it just needs to extract it and deliver it, so really it is the equivalent of printing money. A 10% price discount means slightly less income for Russia, but if that results in a happy reliable customer then who cares.

    Customers that pay full price expect more and often can be lured away with other offers... ask anyone who owns property... a good reliable tennant that you can trust and pays their bills on time is worth more than someone who pays above market rent rates but could burn the house down or bugger off overseas and stiff you.

    Personally I think Russia should sell its gas only to Turkey and Germany and let the other countries in Europe buy their gas from those two states so Russia does not need to care about negotiating dozens of contracts...

    It would mean not worrying about transit fees of countries not maintaining pipelines or stealing from other countries by pinching their gas as it goes past... it would not be Russias problem any more...

    Germany already has power in Europe, but it would make Turkey more powerful in Europe... which will annoy quite a few countries there because they tend to think of Turkey as not really european... the same way they think of Russia as not really being european either...


    What I find interesting is how Russia is the one that is classified as guilty on the prices that the other nations agreed to signing. Like how Ukraine won various court cases against Russia in "international courts" because they signed a bad deal.

    So nothing has really changed... Russia got the blame for the suffering of Eastern Europe, yet the Brits and French and Yanks were happy to sign off on that deal at the time to ensure the Soviets kept fighting the Germans to the last and indeed they entered the war in the Pacific as well, which was demanded by the Americans at the time who were afraid they might be left fighting for years against the Japs.
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    Post  Isos on Fri Apr 12, 2019 9:39 pm

    Rob Lee
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    After FM Cavusoglu said Ankara would consider the Su-34 and Su-57 if the US blocks F-35 deliveries, Kommersant reports that Turkey has previously shown interest in the Su-35, and confirmed that the 400km range 40N6 missiles are part of the S-400 contract
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    Post  GarryB on Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:53 am

    Turkey are not minnows in terms of defence equipment... I would think they could buy 100 Su-57s to replace the F-35s they are not going to get, and with the money left over they could probably licence produce enough Su-35s to replace their F-16s in service... that soon wont be much good for anything without proper spares support...

    Anything Russia is not prepared to export I am sure Turkey could replace with domestic or European components...

    I can dream of course...  Smile
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    Post  LMFS on Sat Apr 13, 2019 11:29 am

    GarryB wrote:Turkey are not minnows in terms of defence equipment... I would think they could buy 100 Su-57s to replace the F-35s they are not going to get, and with the money left over they could probably licence produce enough Su-35s to replace their F-16s in service... that soon wont be much good for anything without proper spares support...

    Anything Russia is not prepared to export I am sure Turkey could replace with domestic or European components...

    I can dream of course...  Smile

    No way, Su-57 & F-16 would be a hell of a 'dream team' ! Razz
    Difficult to better that hi-low combination for an AF, even more considering the big number of F-16 units and modernisation programs Turky has and is implementing on them.

    Turkey has developed a lot of capability in terms of spares for the F-16s, they even make engines under license and if push comes to shove they could trample on those contracts the same way US seems keen on doing the same with the F-35. They also produce AESA radars and have an ongoing program to substitute good portion of the F-16's avionics with their own products. So it does not seem a big vulnerability of theirs.

    I doubt the Su-57 would be cheaper than the F-35A though, it is much more capable plane of which less units would be needed and if we are to use the S-400 program as an indication, it would be probably paid with loan, so I doubt Russia would do a super price, considering all the ToT the Turkish side would certainly demand.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Apr 13, 2019 5:09 pm

    Strange on Su-34 mention. It seems there is a lot of interest on that aircraft yet very little details on it's electronics.
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:14 am

    I doubt the Su-57 would be cheaper than the F-35A though, it is much more capable plane of which less units would be needed and if we are to use the S-400 program as an indication, it would be probably paid with loan, so I doubt Russia would do a super price, considering all the ToT the Turkish side would certainly demand.

    I am sure they could sell the Su-57 for less than 100 million US dollars... especially when it has some of its more secret Russian systems replaced with Turkish systems so it can be exported.

    They are already talking about an export model Su-57 so they clearly have b grade parts they can sell to client states... which wont be anything like as expensive as domestic more advanced and capable parts.

    Regarding the Su-34, Su-57 and Su-35... I suspect it will be either Su-34 and Su-35 as strike and fighter/strike aircraft or Su-57 stealthy strike fighter.

    In other words if they decide the Su-57 doesn't suit them or is too expensive, they will buy Su-35 and Su-34 to replicate its capabilities in a cheaper form that could probably be produced in Turkey...
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    Post  LMFS on Sun Apr 14, 2019 2:09 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Strange on Su-34 mention.  It seems there is a lot of interest on that aircraft yet very little details on it's electronics.
    I thought it was a typo, have not heard any mention to the plane for Turkey until now and actually the export version is called Su-32 isn't it?

    GarryB wrote:I am sure they could sell the Su-57 for less than 100 million US dollars... especially when it has some of its more secret Russian systems replaced with Turkish systems so it can be exported.

    They are already talking about an export model Su-57 so they clearly have b grade parts they can sell to client states... which wont be anything like as expensive as domestic more advanced and capable parts.
    Having the MiG-35 and Su-35 in the export catalogue, Rosoboronexport would naturally try to avoid the Su-57E cannibalizing any of them. Su-57 is the premium product and should be priced accordingly. Su-35 is >80 million so Su-57 should be more than 100 million IMO, but we will see, it is even possible that prices of an eventual contract would not be disclosed.

    In comparison F-35A is already below 90 million and the expectation is to offer it around 80 million in next batches at least among the partners.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:39 pm

    That 90m per f-35 was debunked. It was without engines.
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    Post  LMFS on Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:31 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:That 90m per f-35 was debunked. It was without engines.
    No miketheterrible:

    there are two cost metrics: one is for the price of the planes, program-wide, which does not include the engines, and the other is the low rate production batches (LRIP) price, which is the one that interests any buyer at a given time. From LRIP 9 onwards, the fly-away costs include the engine. Last LRIP 11 prices are:

       102 F-35As, the base model used by the US Air Force and most international customers, for $89.2 million apiece, down 5.4 percent from LRIP 10;
       25 F-35Bs, the “jump jet” version used by the Marine Corps, Italian Navy and British Royal Navy, for $115.5 million each, down 5.7 percent; and
       14 F-35Cs, the extra-tough carrier-based variant used by the US Navy, for $107.7 million each, down 11.1 percent.
    Russia-Turkey S-400 missile deal - Page 2 F-35-cost-decrease-LRIPs-1-11

    https://breakingdefense.com/2018/09/f-35-lrip-11-signed-89m-for-an-f-35a/
    Russia-Turkey S-400 missile deal - Page 2 Costs_13

    Since the prices of the last LRIPs were not agreed with the manufacturers but rather decided by the DoD you can question what is the real cost of the plane, how much some people are (were) making with it and also if/how the money that is not spent up-front will be recovered during operation once the customers are hostage of ALIS and other plane liabilities, but that is another question.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Apr 14, 2019 10:51 pm

    There is, in no way, it is lower than $100M. Not only the parts are made in multiple different countries, but it being cheaper than Rafale as an example where whole production is at home, is silly.

    No, it was debunked. Sorry dude.

    Best bet? See how much it costs let's say Italy or others in their next upcoming orders (or Poland).
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    Post  Guest on Sun Apr 14, 2019 11:58 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:There is, in no way, it is lower than $100M. Not only the parts are made in multiple different countries, but it being cheaper than Rafale as an example where whole production is at home, is silly.

    No, it was debunked. Sorry dude.

    Best bet? See how much it costs let's say Italy or others in their next upcoming orders (or Poland).

    He is right, multiple sources confirm it.

    https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/09/28/f-35-price-falls-before-90m-for-first-time-ever-in-new-deal/

    Lot 11 prices are with the engine.
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    Post  LMFS on Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:53 am

    miketheterrible wrote:There is, in no way, it is lower than $100M. Not only the parts are made in multiple different countries, but it being cheaper than Rafale as an example where whole production is at home, is silly.

    No, it was debunked. Sorry dude.

    Best bet? See how much it costs let's say Italy or others in their next upcoming orders (or Poland).
    The data you saw are the APUC and PAUC related to program wide costs. I researched this, I am positive about it.

    Unit Costs
    As of December 2017, the F-35 program had a program acquisition unit cost (or PAUC, meaning total acquisition cost divided by the 2,456 research and development and procurement aircraft) of about $110.0 million and an average procurement unit cost (or APUC, meaning total procurement cost divided by the 2,443 production aircraft) of $89.8 million, in constant FY2012 dollars

    However, this reflects the cost of the aircraft without its engine, as the engine program was broken out as a separate reporting line in 2011.
    As of December 2017, the F-35 engine program had a program acquisition unit cost of about $21.6 million and an average procurement unit cost of $16.4 million in constant FY2012 dollars. Just as the reported airframe costs represent a program average and do not discriminate among the variants, the engine costs do not discriminate between the single engines used in the F-35A and C and the more expensive engine/lift fan combination for the F-35B.
    However, beginning in December 2016, DOD’s Selected Acquisition Reports broke out unit recurring flyaway costs of the three engines as well as the separate airframes, as follows:

    Russia-Turkey S-400 missile deal - Page 2 Costs_15
    ...
    Unit Cost Projections
    The F-35 program continues efforts to make the F-35 cost-competitive with previous-generation aircraft. (It should be noted that the articles cited below reference the cost of the F-35A, the simplest model.)
    F-35 fighter jets will sell for as little as $80 million in five years, according to the Pentagon official running the program.
    “The cost of an F-35A in 2019 will be somewhere between $80 and $85 million, with an engine, with profit, with inflation,” U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Christopher Bogdan, the Pentagon’s manager of the program, told reporters in Canberra today.109
    That article dated from 2014. More recently, efforts have been increased to reach the same target:
    [Lockheed Martin] will invest up to $170 million over the next two years to extend its existing “Blueprint for Affordability” measure ... to drive down the unit cost of an F-35A to $85 million by 2019.110
    As noted in Table 4, the average unit flyaway cost of an F-35A is officially projected at $77.5 million.


    https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20180423_RL30563_1156a27683086f2b263f11843b14a5de7d407be6.pdf

    Beyond the table I already submitted:

    For the eleventh consecutive year, the cost of an F-35A was lowered. The F-35A unit price including aircraft, engine and fee, is $89.2 million. This represents a 5.4 percent reduction from the $94.3 million it cost for an F-35A in Low-Rate Initial Production Lot 10 (LRIP 10).

    https://www.f35.com/news/detail/pentagon-and-lockheed-martin-agree-to-reduced-f-35-price-in-new-production

    As said, they have many ways of recovering the money after the sale, given not accessing ALIS will get your fleet grounded. And if Rafale sells more expensive then it says all about market value of both planes I guess...
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:27 am

    Or it says a lot about quality.

    Yes, it could be the car sale method: charge less at first place but gouge somewhere else.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:04 am

    Militarov wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:There is, in no way, it is lower than $100M. Not only the parts are made in multiple different countries, but it being cheaper than Rafale as an example where whole production is at home, is silly.

    No, it was debunked. Sorry dude.

    Best bet? See how much it costs let's say Italy or others in their next upcoming orders (or Poland).

    He is right, multiple sources confirm it.

    https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/09/28/f-35-price-falls-before-90m-for-first-time-ever-in-new-deal/

    Lot 11 prices are with the engine.

    But does the cost factor in France, Germany, and effectively Turkey leaving the program?
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:58 am

    I suspect the cost of operational use and continued problems with the aircraft has led to them reducing their profit margin, and more important those charts show projected prices... when countries reduce their order numbers that will normally have the reverse effect.

    So with the price going down and orders going down... better watch out for material substitution and simple fraud.

    The Airframe life was supposed to be 8,000 hours and is actually only about 2,000 hours, which is going to effect lifetime costs, because these birds are going to die young.

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