This topic is created to complete the view with the sea heavy armament.
In the refered to the heavy sea armament, many times there is a lack of overall view that leads to talk about decommissions of relatively young material, and to talk about needs of production and replacement that are not realistic. At same time most of these analysis forget to talk about the low number of ships that are fairly old and less modern.
There are 3 projects clearly older than the rest, not only by age, also as military concept. They are the Project 1204, the Project 61/01090 and the Project 1134B. This age makes the Project 1204 the alone Russian armament using 140mm MRLS rockets, makes the Project 61/01090 the alone Russian warship remaining under 5000 tons with the designation of Destroyer, and also makes the Project 1134B the alone Russian warship remaining under 10000 tons with the designation of Cruiser. Despite it, and addapted to their size, the 3 projects would not be outdated as military concept, all would allow modern armament and modern technologies. But by age, the last remaining ship of the Project 61/01090 (actively used in Syria) will have 50 years old in 2019, the youngest ship active ship of the Project 1204 will have 50 years old by 2022, and the last remaining ship of the Project 1134B (in the reserve after a fire) will have 50 years old by 2024. These are the 3 models of warship present in the Russian combat fleet closer to the mechanical exhaustion, and their total decommission by the end of 2025, including of the reserve, seems likely.
In this case the 2 projects most likely to disappear are the Project 613 and the Project 641. The Project 613 seems present still in the form of 2 submarines adapted to training stations, likely in the reserve. The age of both is over 60 years old and their decommission seems near. The Project 641 returned to the fleet after the capture of one unit from Ukraine in 2014. The status is not clear but seems to be part of the Russian Navy, and seems to be in the reserve. If Im not wrong the submarine captured has not been used since the time of the Soviet Union, and will have 50 years old in 2020. Also this ship seems near the decommission and scrapping.
In this case there is not a project that can be considered a clear candidate for total decommission by the end of 2025.
At this point there are not projects of minesweepers that can be considered clear candidates for total decommission exhaustion by the end of 2025. Likely, the first in line for a total decommission would be the Project 697.
Then, a resume of the oldest Projects of combat ships would include:
Taking into account the condition of the ships of the projects mentioned, if there is some help to Syria in the form of combat ships, the most likely option would be the ship of the Project 61/01090 warship, and if there is some help to Novorussia in the form of combat ships, the most likely option would be the ships of the Project 1204 warship.
It is likely to see also the decommission by age of isolate units of other projects like the Project 1171 of Amphibious ships, the Project 266 of Minesweepers, the project 775 of Amphbious ships, and the Project 1176 of Amphibious ships.
The auxiliary fleet, including low armed patrol ships, would not be included here. It is a different case where a significant number of veteran ships still remain and the process of reduction of the fleet after the end of the Soviet Union seems far from completed.
Last edited by eehnie on Sat 23 Mar 2019, 08:22; edited 6 times in total