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    Older sea warfare performance and short/mid-term decommissions

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    Vote (multiple choice allowed) for the type of armament that in your opinion will remain in the Russian Armed Forces after the end of 2025, and leave without vote the material that will be totally out of the Russian Armed Forces, including of the reserve:

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    Total Votes: 2
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    eehnie

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    Older sea warfare performance and short/mid-term decommissions

    Post  eehnie on Thu May 31, 2018 3:44 pm

    There are in this forum two topics refered to the performance of the land and air heavy armament in the Russian Armed Forces and the short/mid-term decommissions:

    http://www.russiadefence.net/t4072-older-warfare-performance-and-short-mid-term-decomissions
    http://www.russiadefence.net/t4343-older-warfare-performance-and-short-mid-term-decommissions

    This topic is created to complete the view with the sea heavy armament.

    In the refered to the heavy sea armament, many times there is a lack of overall view that leads to talk about decommissions of relatively young material, and to talk about needs of production and replacement that are not realistic. At same time most of these analysis forget to talk about the low number of ships that are fairly old and less modern.

    By area:

    Warships:

    There are two projects clearly older than the rest, not only by age, also as military concept. There are the Project 61/01090 and the Project 1134B. This age makes the Project 61/01090 the alone Russian warship remaining under 5000 tons with the designation of Destroyer. And also it makes the Project 1134B the alone Russian warship remaining under 10000 tons with the designation of Cruiser. Despite it, and addapted to their size, both ships would not be outdated technologically, and as military concept, both would allow modern armament and modern technologies. But by age, the last remaining ship of the Project 61/01090 (actively used in Syria) will have 50 years old in 2019, and he last remaining ship of the Project 1134B (in the reserve after a fire) will have 50 years old by 2024, these are the 2 models of warship present in the Russian combat fleet closer to the mechanical exhaustion, and their total decommission by 2025, including of the reserve, seems likely. Third in line, and newer by age and military concept would be the Project 1135.

    Submarines:

    In this case the oldest project that remains in the Russian combat fleet is the Project 641, that returned to the fleet after the capture of one unit from Ukraine in 2014. The status is not clear but seems to be part of the Russian Navy, and seems to be in the reserve. If Im not wrong the submarine has not been used since the time of the Soviet Union. The submarine captured will have 50 years old in 2020. The total decommission of the Project 641 by 2025, including of the reserve, seems likely, but can be delayed by political reasons.

    Amphibious ships:

    The oldest moldel of amphibious ship in the Russian combat flee is the Project 1171. Four ships of this project remain in the fleet.  The mechanical reserve of the ships of this project would be higher tha in the cases commented previously, but at same point, an intensive use in the operation of transport of armament to Syria, in order to keep younger ships in better condition, can lead to the total exhaustion of these ships and a decommission, including of the reserve.

    Minesweepers:

    At this point there are not projects of minesweeper ships as old and as exhausted than other cases previously commented. In this case the first in line for a total decommission would be the Project 697, of similar age and condition that the Project 1135 warship.

    Missile boats:

    The Project 1204 would be oldest in this cathegory. Four ships remain in active service and will be of 40 years old in 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2022. A sing of its age of this project is to be the alone weapon that still uses 140mm MRLS rockets. While I would not say that is outdated as military concept, the small size of this project is a serious handicap in order to make some update and upgrade.


    Then, a resume of the oldest Projects of combat ships would include:

    Project 1204
    Project 61/01090
    Project 1171
    Project 1134B

    Project 641

    Project 697
    Project 1135

    Taking into account the condition of the ships of the projects mentioned, if there is some help to Syria in the form of combat ships, the most likely options would be the ships of the Project 61/01090 warship, and of the Project 1204 missile boat.

    It would be also possible to see decommission of isolate units of other projects, as example some unit of the Project 266 of Minesweepers, and some unit of the Project 1176 of small Amphibious ships, but it is less likely to see the total decommission, including of the reserve, of more pojects.

    The auxiliary fleet, including low armed patrol ships, would not be included here. It is a different case where a significant number of veteran ships still remain and the process of reduction of the fleet after the Soviet Union seems far from completed.


    Last edited by eehnie on Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:29 pm; edited 2 times in total
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    eehnie

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    Re: Older sea warfare performance and short/mid-term decommissions

    Post  eehnie on Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:39 pm

    The war in Syria will likely continue long, basically because the US  imposes war. Russia knows that when the Syrian war stops, the US aid to the rebels and Israel will move to rearm Ukraine or Georgia.

    The logical decline in the numbers of the oldest weapons in Syria, Russia and Asia can lead to more intense help of Russia, Iran and other countries, with some weapons:

    SEA ARMAMENT LIKELY NEEDS

    Warships: Project 61/01090
    by declining numbers of Project 159

    For other types of weapons, the help is more difficult.

    The weapons bolded in fuchsia of Russian origin, can leave the active service in Russia in 2-4 years.
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    eehnie

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    Re: Older sea warfare performance and short/mid-term decommissions

    Post  eehnie on Wed Jun 06, 2018 12:43 pm

    In the case of Novorussia, the intensity of the conflict remains in significantly lower level than in Syria. There is not doubt that Novorussia would have all the necessary material in case of war of bigger intensity. At this point the war seems reduced to some Artillery, Surface-Surface and man-portable weapons duels. Taking it and the new local designs into account:

    SEA ARMAMENT LIKELY NEEDS

    Missile Boats: Project 1204
    by lack of weapons

    The weapons bolded in fuchsia of Russian origin, can leave the active service in Russia in 2-4 years.
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    eehnie

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    Re: Older sea warfare performance and short/mid-term decommissions

    Post  eehnie on Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:55 pm

    Scrapping report of the 3Q of the decade for the heavy sea combat material (January 2016 - June 2018)

    Isolate units and/or broken parts of heavy sea combat material to continue:

    Project 1135: Sale and auction of scrap material.

    Bigger amounts of heavy sea combat material to continue:

    .

    Bigger amounts of heavy sea combat material in process of exhaustion for the mid-term:

    .

    Low amounts of heavy sea combat material in process of exhaustion for the short-term and with exhaustion finished:

    Project 1332: Sale and auction of scrap material and spare parts.

    Liquidation of heavy sea combat material which exhaustion was likely completed by the end of 2015:

    .

    Looking at the reports I tend to think that:

    - The scrapping activity in this time has been very low.
    - The scrapping process of the Project 1332 was likely finished in 2017/2018. In 2018 would be the liquidation of the last spare parts.

    It has not been scrapping activity in other cathegories for the heavy sea combat material.

    For the 4Q of the decade it is possible to be some scrapping activity related to ships and submarines recently decommissioned. There are few cases in queue of ships that are not in very bad condition. The scrapping activity for heavy sea combat material can increase a little but will remain low until late 2020s.

    To note that the scrapping activity on heavy sea material has been in this 3Q of the decade, and is at this point, far bigger on heavy sea auxiliary material than on heavy sea combat material. The scrapping activity on heavy sea auxiliary material is increasing, and is likely to increase significantly in the following years.

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