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    Russian Economy General News: #9

    GunshipDemocracy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:42 pm

    Limonov's columt this time is great read: not too get too seroius but nice perspective tho.


    http://svpressa.ru/politic/article/220813/

    Belousov list

    Eduard Limonov: Apparently, the dispossession of oligarchs began in the Kremlin

    There was such a film "Schindler's List" in which a German entrepreneur in the era of Hitler rescues Jews by placing the names of some on the list of specialists who are supposedly necessary for him to work in his factory for the benefit of Germany.

    On December 26, Putin and his adviser Andrei Belousov (his father Rem Belousov was a leading scientist and economist in Soviet times) gathered 59 people, 40 of whom were private entrepreneurs with total capital of over 220 billion USD.

    I will not enumerate everyone, it will be tiring, I will call everyone well known, this is enough.

    Invited were:

    Alekperov , Prokhorov , Kostin , Sechin , Potanin , Vekselberg , Natalya Kasperskaya , Timchenko , Yakobashvili , Mamut , Chubais , smaller ones : Bokarev , Berezkin and so on.

    The main thing at the meeting with businessmen were GDP and Belousov, since several months ago it was Andrei Belousov who voiced the idea of ​​imposing a tribute to entrepreneurs.

    Belousov suggested, in particular, forcing exporters who received additional profits from the weakening ruble to share money with the state.

    He proposed to introduce a special collection for them.

    In that frank form of weaning, in which Belousov proposed the expropriation at that time, Belousov’s plan was not adopted.

    But, and now, at the stage of organizing a meeting with entrepreneurs, power and business this time agreed on a compromise: the business will finance large infrastructure and key social projects. For a few trillion rubles.

    The highest of the crowd was Prokhorov. Looking at the photos of him near Putin, I remember the grim sharpness of Napoleon I , said by the emperor to one of his marshals: “Marshal, you are a head taller than me, but please do not mind me, because I can easily eliminate this discrepancy”.

    The most unpleasant among those who gathered on December 26 in the Kremlin was undoubtedly Sechin, an insidious man who gave up either justice or sacrificed for the pleasure of Minister Ulyukayev , a poet who was the son of a Tatar janitor , who was close to him . We all remember the details of this rather smelly story.

    With such a little face as Sechin’s scare people, he has a dangerous vidos, he is about to bite, staring at the throat. (This is my personal opinion, of course). He would have to sit with such a face locked up in the Rosneft office.

    As far as can be understood from the leaked information, the businessmen gathered in the Kremlin agreed to give the state money for special state projects. It is not known, willingly, hardly willingly, but dutifully, there is nowhere to go, where to go?

    Some entrepreneurs did not show up at the meeting with Putin in the Kremlin, in particular, the head of Alfa Bank, Peter Aven , the head of Yandex by the name Volozh , the businessmen Chemezov , Saveliev , as well as the Rotenberg brothers and Kovalchuk did not come .

    The Russian media immediately rushed to groan and gasp, and to wonder what will happen to them now, not to those who have come, to what severe punishment they will be exposed to.

    My opinion is why the above-mentioned oligarchs did not come, either simpler and more believable.
    And they have already agreed to give money, therefore they did not come. Receipts can be blood and did not write, but who will dare to deceive the authorities? Russian power? Yes, no, no one!

    In connection with the gathering in the Kremlin on December 26, I recall another gathering at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

    Prince Mohammed bin Salman , who actually seized power in the kingdom, drove about three hundred princes of the royal family to the Ritz-Carlton and demanded a ransom from them.

    The princes spent the entire winter at the hotel, and only in February 2017, when they paid more than $ 100 billion, they were able to leave the hotel, paying for their stay at the best hotel in the capital of Saudi Arabia at exorbitant prices.

    The Saudis among themselves there (we hear a small part of the rumors that Riyadh is filled with) claim that 65 of the three hundred princes refused to pay the ransom. No one has ever seen these princes allegedly, and nothing is known about their fate.

    Interestingly, in this case, both Mohammed bin Salman and the adviser to the Russian president Belousov act as ultra-revolutionaries, expropriators, who have completely made the slogan “Grab-theft!”

    And Belousov, moreover, in fact, ideologically joined the plans of the radical Russian party “The Other Russia” *, demanding to cancel the results of privatization (“We don’t need the Super Rich”).
    Only here, the radical political party "Other Russia" does not have enough influence to convince the Russian oligarchs to give money, and the GDP adviser has such influence and such driving force.

    Started dispossession?

    Well, no, the state just needs money in the budget, and where to get it, except from the oligarchs? But the ideology of oligarchic capitalism cannot be destroyed by one of his loyal sons of GDP, so long as they take away part of the money, motivating weaning with special projects.

    I think further, there in the future, new lists of Belousov will inevitably be compiled again and again. The state will need money all the time.

    I represent the voluptuous physiognomy of the “security officer” Belousov, whom he had in drawing up his list. He will deny that he is a “security officer”. For me - yes, he is an expropriator, this is my personal strong opinion, that's it.

    "Removich", it is necessary. Gref - German, Siluanov - Germanovich, Belousov - Ramovich ... Was it a random selection of German names?
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:49 pm


    Tax collection in Russia soars 22% in 2018 thanks to improved efficiency and shadow economy crackdown

    http://www.intellinews.com/tax-collection-in-russia-soars-22-in-2018-thanks-to-improved-efficiency-and-shadow-economy-crackdown-154294/
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    Post  Hole on Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:44 pm

    I predict they buy more gold with some of this money.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:19 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Tax collection in Russia soars 22% in 2018 thanks to improved efficiency and shadow economy crackdown

    didnt I say that in case of gray zone coming out Russia's GDP can have leap of ~~30% russia russia russia

    @Hole, or investment in heath care/education ;-)
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    Post  Hole on Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:14 am

    There are already huge investments going on. More and if will result in more inflation.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:28 pm

    Hole wrote:There are already huge investments going on. More and if will result in more inflation.

    huge are planned, not yet all has financing tho. BTW in evry case they can push more money to support microelectronics or space prgramme. I'm sure there will be enough targets.


    Topilin told about the increase in salaries of Russians

    https://rg.ru/2019/01/09/maksim-topilin-rasskazal-o-povyshenii-zarplat-rossiian.html
    In the new year, the salaries of state employees, both those who have entered and those who have not entered into the “May” decrees of the president of 2012, will grow. This was told to "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" by the Minister of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation Maxim Topilin. The salary of state employees, which were not mentioned in the decrees, will be indexed from October 1 to 4.3 percent.

    “No one has canceled the requirements for the ratio of public sector wages from the“ May ”decrees - doctors, teachers, social and scientific workers - to the average for the economy in the region. And we strictly monitor the preservation of the ratio. At the same time, in 2019 maintaining this balance an additional 100 billion rubles. As far as the average salary in the region grows, so much the regional authorities will have to increase the wages of these categories of workers, "said Maxim Topilin.

    and here a bit of crystal "balls" vision. US way. Interesting why Egypt and Turkey should be bigger then Russia since their population will be smaller and are per capita much poorer?!
    To me just like daily horoscope near funnies column in daily newspaper. Source has ekhm "magical knowledge" based on precsely what? lol1 lol1 lol1

    These Could Be the World’s Biggest Economies by 2030

    https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/fixed-income


    Seven of the world’s top 10 economies by 2030 will likely be current emerging markets.

    The prediction for a shake-up of the world’s gross domestic product rankings comes in new long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered Plc, which includes a projection for China to become the largest economy by 2020, using purchasing power parity exchange rates and nominal GDP.

    India will likely be larger than the U.S. in the same time period while Indonesia will break into the top 5 economies.



    ]at least here Bits siad PwC report was basis

    These will be the 21 most powerful economies in 2030


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/nigeria-egypt-france-germany-italy-spain-uk-usa-russia-south-korea-pakistan-canada-iran-saudi-arabia-a7926336.html


    Saudites bigger then Korea? so they double population and triple GDP based on precisely what?
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    Post  Hole on Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:46 pm

    If some western bankers would decide that the exchange rate of the rubel to the dollar would be 1:10 instead of 1:65 the russian economy would grow to 10 Trill.+ GDP in a second.
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    Post  Austin on Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:40 am

    [size=30]According to the laws of sanction time[/size]

    Bank of Russia shifted from dollar to yuan and euro


    https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3850165



    From July 2017 to June 2018, the assets of the Central Bank in currency and gold increased by 9.6% to $ 458.1 billion. The share of the US dollar in the market value of assets decreased from 43.7% to 21.9%, in euros - increased from 22.2% to 32%, in RMB - tripled, from 5% to 14.7%



    In dollar terms, the volume of investments in euro and yuan was about the same (a little more than $ 44 billion), but if in European currency it increased by 45%, then in China it almost tripled ). Investments in Japanese yen (by $ 20 billion) also increased, and in British pounds they dropped by more than $ 7 billion. The share of assets in other currencies and gold did not actually change.



    Russian Economy General News: #9 - Page 40 _2019d002-02-01


    From the point of view of the geographical distribution of assets of the Central Bank, the changes that have occurred look even more noticeable (see the graph). The US share declined over the year from 32.5% to 9.6%, the PRC rose from 0.1% to 11.7%, Japan from 1.7% to 7%, France from 12.7% to 15 , 5%, Germany - from 10.4% to 12.7%.
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    Post  Austin on Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:45 am

    Good Move by Central Bank 

    Gold should be 20 % of Reserves 
    Euro - 30 %
    Renminbi - 25 %
    USD - 15 %
    Rest 10 % other currency 


    I dont trust the Yen or USD ,Japan will simply bow to US demand
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    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:33 pm


    Russia Dumps $101 Billion From Dollar Reserves in Pivot to China

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-09/russia-boosted-yuan-euro-holdings-as-it-dumped-dollars-in-2018
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    Post  Kimppis on Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:31 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:[and here a bit of crystal "balls" vision. US way. Interesting why Egypt and Turkey should be bigger then Russia since their population will be smaller and are per capita much poorer?!
    To me just like daily horoscope near funnies column in daily newspaper. Source has  ekhm "magical knowledge" based on precsely what?   lol1  lol1  lol1

    I'm not even going to bother giving them clicks... So are those Egypt and Turkey vs. Russia comparisons based on nominal GDP? Utter BS either way, they are first of all probably based on some extremely negative projections about Russia's demographics (or rather, jus totally outdated info). In reality Russia's population has been growing since around 2008. Notwithstanding the recent fall in fertility rate (which is still decent by European standards), it's already obvious that Russia's demographic collapse will not happen, period.

    And of course forecasting nominal GDP is a waste of time anyway, impossible to predict exchange rates, the shadow economy you mentioned, the list goes on... And India overtaking the US by 2030... Are they really forecasting that? Hahaha... Even in PPP that's ridiculous (by 2030!). (But yeah... In a world where Egypt and Turkey overtakes Russia and the Saudis beat South Korea, everything is possible, I guess...)
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:33 am

    Austin wrote:Good Move by Central Bank 

    +++

    I dont trust the Yen or USD ,Japan will simply bow to US demand

    It's not about trusting or not but risk mgmt to me.

    hehe JPM officially b exams a laundromat? lol1 lol1 lol1

    CBR brought management of JPMorgan Bank in Russia to administrative responsibility

    https://tass.ru/ekonomika/5987504

    MOSCOW, January 10. / TASS /. The Central Bank has attracted the leadership of the JPMorgan commercial bank in Russia to administrative liability for non-compliance with the requirements of the legislation on countering the laundering of proceeds from crime. The announcement of the entry into force of the relevant decision posted on Thursday on the website of the regulator.


    Last edited by GunshipDemocracy on Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:41 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:39 am

    Kimppis wrote:
    I'm not even going to bother giving them clicks... So are those Egypt and Turkey vs. Russia comparisons based on nominal GDP? Utter BS either way, they are first of all probably based on some extremely negative projections about Russia's demographics (or rather, jus totally outdated info). In reality Russia's population has been growing since around 2008. Notwithstanding the recent fall in fertility rate (which is still decent by European standards), it's already obvious that Russia's demographic collapse will not happen, period.

    Russia can always turn up a bit immigration program if needed


    And of course forecasting nominal GDP is a waste of time anyway, impossible to predict exchange rates, the shadow economy you mentioned, the list goes on... And India overtaking the US by 2030... Are they really forecasting that? Hahaha... Even in PPP that's ridiculous (by 2030!). (But yeah... In a world where Egypt and Turkey overtakes Russia and the Saudis beat South Korea, everything is possible, I guess...)

    it was in ppp, so with India is quite possible, they already are about half us size. And growing about 8% pa



    Putin: scientific cooperation with other countries should be equal and mutually beneficial

    https://tass.ru/nauka/5982267
    The President noted that it is necessary to cooperate with everyone who is ready to work together

    MOSCOW, January 9. / TASS /. Russian President Vladimir Putin is confident that in the scientific sphere of the Russian Federation should cooperate with all countries that want such collaboration.

    “We have no restrictions here [in the sphere of international scientific cooperation]: we need to cooperate with everyone who wants to work with us,” he said at a meeting with the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) Alexander Sergeyev.

    The head of state stressed that such work "should be built on an equal basis, an equal exchange," and as a result Russia should not lose anything, but only win. “We need to strive for this so that we are not just a source of obtaining some of our skills and knowledge,” the president noted. “If we share something with someone, then we should receive equivalent information from the other side.”

    “In general, I would like the vector of interest to be sent to our country, and not from ours,” noted Sergeyev. According to him, the Russian Academy of Sciences has already started to organize its representative offices abroad. “We now have serious plans to create inter-academic scientific exchange centers,” he added. “In fact, academic exchange has been suspended since 2013, and we have very important programs with many countries that are simply frozen now.”

    Sergeev expressed the hope that the RAS will receive additional funding for international academic exchanges. According to him, for these exchanges in the country it is planned to create several centers that will receive groups operating on the principle of "brainstorming." "There is now such a fairly new form in science, when they gather for a week, for two weeks, the strongest people from all countries," the head of the RAS said. "Those countries that are very actively involved in organizing this activity, attracting such brainstorming to their territories, automatically become the focus of science in the relevant field," he said.
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    Post  par far on Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:57 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    I'm not even going to bother giving them clicks... So are those Egypt and Turkey vs. Russia comparisons based on nominal GDP? Utter BS either way, they are first of all probably based on some extremely negative projections about Russia's demographics (or rather, jus totally outdated info). In reality Russia's population has been growing since around 2008. Notwithstanding the recent fall in fertility rate (which is still decent by European standards), it's already obvious that Russia's demographic collapse will not happen, period.

    Russia can always turn up a bit immigration program if needed


    And of course forecasting nominal GDP is a waste of time anyway, impossible to predict exchange rates, the shadow economy you mentioned, the list goes on... And India overtaking the US by 2030... Are they really forecasting that? Hahaha... Even in PPP that's ridiculous (by 2030!). (But yeah... In a world where Egypt and Turkey overtakes Russia and the Saudis beat South Korea, everything is possible, I guess...)

    it was in ppp, so with India is quite possible, they already are about half us size. And growing about 8% pa



    Putin: scientific cooperation with other countries should be equal and mutually beneficial


    https://tass.ru/nauka/5982267
    The President noted that it is necessary to cooperate with everyone who is ready to work together

    MOSCOW, January 9. / TASS /. Russian President Vladimir Putin is confident that in the scientific sphere of the Russian Federation should cooperate with all countries that want such collaboration.

    “We have no restrictions here [in the sphere of international scientific cooperation]: we need to cooperate with everyone who wants to work with us,” he said at a meeting with the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) Alexander Sergeyev.

    The head of state stressed that such work "should be built on an equal basis, an equal exchange," and as a result Russia should not lose anything, but only win. “We need to strive for this so that we are not just a source of obtaining some of our skills and knowledge,” the president noted. “If we share something with someone, then we should receive equivalent information from the other side.”

    “In general, I would like the vector of interest to be sent to our country, and not from ours,” noted Sergeyev. According to him, the Russian Academy of Sciences has already started to organize its representative offices abroad. “We now have serious plans to create inter-academic scientific exchange centers,” he added. “In fact, academic exchange has been suspended since 2013, and we have very important programs with many countries that are simply frozen now.”

    Sergeev expressed the hope that the RAS will receive additional funding for international academic exchanges. According to him, for these exchanges in the country it is planned to create several centers that will receive groups operating on the principle of "brainstorming." "There is now such a fairly new form in science, when they gather for a week, for two weeks, the strongest people from all countries," the head of the RAS said. "Those countries that are very actively involved in organizing this activity, attracting such brainstorming to their territories, automatically become the focus of science in the relevant field," he said.

    No please don't do that, get Russia's birth rate up.
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    Post  Kimppis on Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:12 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:it was in ppp, so with India is quite possible, they already are about half us size. And growing about 8% pa

    I still very much doubt that. And it sounds... weird. 2030 is quite soon. Though one thing I have noticed is that projections about India's economic future have gotten more positive as of late. I have no idea why, I thought India was "always" projected to grow by 7-8% pa at this stage.

    So India overtaking the US by 2040-50 is certainly plausible, even likely and inevitable, but I do think their overall human capital is limited (wrongthink here, let's not go there any more than that) so that the economy will slow down after reaching maybe Brazil's level of per capita GDP (relative to the US level at that time).

    So overall I think the earlier long-term forecasts are still more accurate, the ones from maybe 5-10 years ago. Which incidentally are more optimistic about Russia, and even China as well.
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    Post  Hole on Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:52 pm

    Well, after the next crash there is a slight (read: big!) possibility that Trumpistan will fall out of the top 10 GDP countries rather quick.

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