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    Russian Economy General News: #9

    Kimppis
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    Post  Kimppis on Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:06 pm

    Well, according to their forecasts, economic growth will reach the desired 3% in 2021, which is year 3 of the "plan". So that would suggest that the focus is clearly on the second half of Putin's last term.

    That said, 5.6 trilion for the first 3 years really does sound too low in comparison, so something is probably off... Misunderstanding, mistranslation?
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:30 pm

    Kimppis wrote: Rosstat

    or maybe this dude was a stubborn dickhead who wanted to do everything manually? so lots of errors, to many resources spent yet results too late and not sure? Idk Im just speculating. In any project/programme if you dont have right metrics, insight o time you dont know how much you deviate form course...


    Kimppis wrote: missing trillions

    The only logical explanation to me is to do it in non linear way. I.e. lots of legal acts need to be approved, some re-organizational and personal changes introduced. Otherwise pouring large stream of money now is like pump water into colander to fill; it up. vide: Vostotchny or rosnano.

    dedolarization + Google tax are to me 2 very important steps towards "sealed economy" . If Russia manages to decrease "grey exonomy" it can have only form this 1/3 GDP higher in 6 years.



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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:37 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:

    So the whole thing becomes confusing. To add to it, it makes Putin and his government look severely incompetent if they cannot even agree on what was signed and planned, long before project starts.

    does it look otherwise in EU/USA? lol1 lol1 lol1
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:41 pm

    Arrow wrote: Putin is a very weak politician.

    Not sure how weak but Im sure in finals of powerlifitng he'd loose to this guy.


    Russian Economy General News: #9 - Page 39 Brian-shaw-strongman-arnold-e1519717028948

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:37 am

    Kimppis wrote:Well, according to their forecasts, economic growth will reach the desired 3% in 2021, which is year 3 of the "plan". So that would suggest that the focus is clearly on the second half of Putin's last term.

    That said, 5.6 trilion for the first 3 years really does sound too low in comparison, so something is probably off... Misunderstanding, mistranslation?

    Well, there seems to be a strange amount of info being thrown around but nothing is actually firm info. So from what I see is that the Gov is going to implement 5.6T in 3 years and they expect Private to implement 15T

    So here is some info then:

    http://tass.com/economy/1036952

    "20.8 trillion rubles ($308.2 bln) are planned for national projects alone. 6.5 trillion rubles ($96.5 bln) are in a separate fund for development of the infrastructure. Certainly, they should be concentrated on certain breakthrough documents. These development plans may have any names. Nevertheless, these were named "national projects."

    and

    https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/news/2018/12/24/790107-biznes-siluanovu-investproekti

    In late November, the representative of the Ministry of Finance told methat within three weeks the office has received investment applications from 54 entrepreneurs in the implementation of the 207 projects with a total investment of more than 14.5 trillion.

    So it looks like they are pitching the national projects to the private investors, in hopes to get part of that 15T Rubles. So that in the three years afterwards they can allocate the rest.

    But I find this is a rather dangerous move. It should be guaranteed that the government spends the 26T Rubles and what private investors spend is icing on the cake.

    But I am also assuming that it is guaranteed that the companies will spend that much anyway. From my understanding, major banks are also involved in these projects, and of course, the banks investments will show as private yet the banks are actually government controlled.

    So part of it will come from budget, rest will come from government valued assets.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:40 am

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/115861/

    Major projects implemented in Russia. Part 1

    Russia today is a dynamically developing country with great prospects!

    Much has been done since the beginning of the 21st century, but still more to be done. In 2019, the year the country implemented a lot of significant and very significant projects and it is about them I want to tell you in this article.

    Go!

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/115866/

    Major projects implemented in Russia. Part 2

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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:05 am

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/115850/

    From June 2015, according to the site "Sdelanounas" and other resources in Russia implemented more 1132 projects of import substitution!


    *****

    June 2015 — 23 project.

    July 2015 — 18 projects.

    August 2015 — 24 project.

    September 2015 — 33 project.

    October 2015 — 35 projects.

    November 2015 — 38 projects.

    December 2015 — 28 projects.

    January 2016 — 29 projects.

    February 2016 — 22 project.

    March 2016 — 37 projects.

    April 2016 — 23 project.

    May 2016 — 40 projects.

    June 2016 — 44 project.

    July 2016 — 52 project.

    August 2016 — 53 project.

    September 2016 — 47 projects.

    October 2016 — 58 projects.

    November 2016 — 26 projects.

    December 2016 — 64 project.

    January 2017 — 21 project.

    February 2017 — 25 projects.

    March 2017 — 15 projects.

    April 2017 — 27 projects.

    May 2017 — 18 projects.

    June 2017 — 15 projects.

    July 2017 — 19 projects.

    August 2017 — 24 project.

    September 2017 14 projects.

    October 2017 — 15 projects.

    November 2017 — 21 project.

    December 2017 — 27 projects.

    January 2018 — 16 projects.

    February 2018 — 16 projects.

    March 2018 — 28 projects.

    April 2018 — 23 project.

    May 2018 — 26 projects.

    June 2018 — 18 projects.

    July 2018 — 16 projects.

    August 2018 — 19 projects.

    September 2018 — 29 projects.

    October 2018 — 20 projects.

    November 2018 — 29 projects.
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    Post  Regular on Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:57 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Russia’s Central Bank Is Buying up so Much Gold Its Huge Mines Can No Longer Keep Up

    https://russia-insider.com/en/russias-central-bank-buying-so-much-gold-its-huge-mines-can-no-longer-keep/ri25788

    Bank of Russia has been financing the expansion of Russian gold mining but even this is no longer enough -- for the first time Russia is having to source some of its gold from abroad...


    Alright, now this is how you build monetary system. thumbsup

    Also, this would explain why Russia seems to be so interested in Venezuela and Central African Republic all of a sudden.

    It was bit confusing at first, Russia doesn't really need oil from Venezuela and CAR is hardly top real estate (no coast) but gold in both places puts the whole thing in new and very logical context.

    Only metals are in greens when stocks are in red now Smile
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:41 pm

    Great article from Tom Luongo, and his site Gold, Goats n Guns...   link.  A slightly abridged version follows.

    A Stable Ruble is the Key to Russia’s Survival

    The Russian ruble moved sharply this week as the global equity and commodities rout continues in the wake of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

    Russia’s central bank over-reacted to a rise in inflation as the global economy moves towards a chaotic and politically dangerous 2019.

    Oil prices are moving in sync with equities as the markets have entered a panic phase anticipating a global recession next year. Normally the Ruble is very strongly tied to oil prices. But as I showed in an article just before Thanksgiving, the ruble didn’t respond at all to a drop in Brent Crude from $80+ per barrel to around $60.

    Russian Economy General News: #9 - Page 39 Ruble-brent-crude-1

    Amidst a 38% drop in the price of Brent Crude since October, the ruble has fluctuated in a 4% band around 67 to the dollar. This is shocking stability given the volatility in oil prices.

    Ruble weakness from earlier this year was an over-reaction to heightened sanctions by the U.S. especially at a time where the threat of further sanctions on Iran and Venezuela’s collapse kept prices high.

    Oil’s Outlook


    And now it is catching up to this drop in oil prices with this week’s weakness. Oil prices are unsustainable above $65 per barrel amidst this level of supply.

    They are equally unsustainable below $40 per barrel for just about everyone due to budget constraints (the Saudis) or debt-servicing (U.S. Frackers).

    Since free-floating the ruble back in late 2014, Russia has been less and less affected by the fluctuations in oil prices. Because domestic costs are paid in rubles and income earned in dollars is offset by the weaker ruble.

    It is government expenditures which suffer during waves of lower oil prices. But this year’s high prices have swelled Russia’s state coffers, running a 2.1% of GDP budget surplus this year.

    Russia has an auto-budgeting system based on oil tariff revenues the budget will adjust based on anticipated oil prices.

    And given the announced 1.2 million barrel per day cut from OPEC don’t expect the Russians to budget near $80 per barrel for 2019. That was a bearish signal, a sign of weakness.

    Energy makes up the bulk of the country’s exports but that proportion is falling steadily as other industries mature. In 2017 oil/gas made up just under 60% of exports down from 69% in 2014.

    They’ll likely be up as a percentage this year because of higher prices, but non-resource exports hit a record $147 billion this year, according to a recent statement from Andrey Slepnev, Chief Executive of the Russian Export Center.

    That’s the important part.

    The double whammy of increased sanctions (with threats of even more) and lower prices should have sent the ruble skyrocketing similar to what we saw this year with the Turkish lira.

    I’m sure that’s been the hope on Capitol Hill.


    But we haven’t and that speaks to the growing proportion of Russian trade settling outside the dollar. Russian exports continue to grow thanks to the weaker ruble and Putin’s continued growing stature as a statesman.

    This is having the positive effect of opening up more markets for Russian goods and working with countries willing to skirt U.S. sanctions.

    The Real Ideological War


    Trump and Putin are locked in an ideological war of how to conduct trade now. And the shoe, nominally, is on the other foot. I have to marvel at Trump turning mafioso, punishing people for doing business with anyone but him while Putin pulls a Dale Carnegie looking for wins where he can get them.

    Trump has his stick. Putin offers carrots.

    It’s a sad commentary on what’s become of the U.S. that Trump believes he can bully his way to remaking America in his image. He talks a lot about America being respected again. But that’s not the sense I get when I look around the geopolitical game board.

    In fact, it is the opposite. Trump may get obedience and he can choose to see deference to the U.S.’s power as ‘respect’ but it’s not. It’s resentment. And he should be smart enough to know this.


    He’s undermining the one thing that makes the dollar the dollar. Stability and consistency.

    Putin, on the other hand, chooses to ignore Trump where he can and make offers which tie Russia and its neighbors together in a web of trade. The hysterical neoconservatives here shout incoherently about “undo Russian influence.”

    This is simply code for, “We want Russia poor, weak and incapable of defending herself so we can take it over.”


    But the reality is that with each pipeline built between Russia and Europe, India and/or China the likelihood of war between them recedes. Viewed through that lens, Russia uses its energy resources to defend its future.

    The West calls it ‘Pipeline Diplomacy,’ and our opposition to it stems from outdated ‘Great Powers’ theory of how to play the great game of geopolitics.

    Because Russia knows all too well the belligerence of U.S. and European elites towards it. It’s been dealing with it for centuries. And Putin, as a student of history, knows that time is Russia’s greatest ally.

    Stability Becomes Reserves

    That’s what Putin’s endless meetings are all about, building trade across central Asia with the ruble as a viable alternative for the dollar.

    The trend is clear. The West is broke. The endless hunt for taxes to shore up federal budgets will continue. The U.S. is interested solely in maintaining its power. This is really what Trump means when he says, “Make America Great Again.”

    And he will do anything to achieve that goal, regardless of the secondary effects. This makes U.S. policy aggressive, violent and vindictive. And that is not the recipe for long-term economic or political stability.

    This is what Trump and his national security team most fear, a Russia capable of building a parallel institutional system operating outside their control.

    Because people respond to incentives. And each day that Trump makes using the dollar more expensive is another day where someone else makes the decision not to use them.

    So, a stable ruble, unfazed by sanctions and wild swings in the price of oil, makes that decision that much easier. Each day that brings another small deal settled in rubles or another load of oil paid for in yuan and swapped for gold is another day closer to that reality.

    So much truth in an article from a US writer.  It gives me some hope that not all Muricans are empty-headed fuktards and that a global thermonuclear exchange might just be avoidable...  Very Happy
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Jan 06, 2019 5:03 am

    Big_Gazza wrote:So much truth in an article from a US writer.  It gives me some hope that not all Muricans are empty-headed fuktards and that a global thermonuclear exchange might just be avoidable...  Very Happy

    of course not. Soros&& deep state dept want you to see US as monolith of exceptional fucktards. As for US folks, it isnt their choice to live in 84's world. BTW Russian liberasts are same level fucktards as "exceptionalists". Or even better Very Happy
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    Post  Austin on Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:47 am

    How to count the Russian economy


    https://ria.ru/20190105/1549060418.html
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:00 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:BTW Russian liberasts are same level  fucktards as "exceptionalists". Or even better Very Happy

    Could not agree more!!! I simply marvel that Russian liberals are not floating down the Neva in numbers too large to count... Very Happy
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    Post  Big_Gazza on Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:16 am

    Austin wrote:How to count the Russian economy

    https://ria.ru/20190105/1549060418.html

    If anyone needs a reminder why Kudrin should be considered a 5th columnist TRAITOR, they only need to read this article. Kudrin is a spineless jellyfish who just wants to give the Seppos what they want and to curl up into a little ball. Play nice and accede to the West demands in the vain hope that sanctions will be removed??? Pfff... what a dumb cnt... on the first sign of Russia's will eroding, the US will intensify the assault and attempt to drive Russia to total capitulation. You don't counter an agressor by appeasing him and giving in to his demands... angry
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:29 am

    What's funny is he did exactly that during his time as finance minister of Russia. And with growth of oil prices, it's GDP growth was rather pathetic.

    He was a terrible official and he should actually be in jail for treason.
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    Post  Regular on Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:46 am

    I am startimg to believe that Kudrin has good krysha above his head.. Protection by powerful people
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    Post  Nibiru on Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:55 am

    Thats the only reason why he seem to have political immunity despite his brazen and deliberate attacks against Russian economic policies. I wish someone would step in and cut the head of this snake before he can spread his venom and cause more trouble.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:06 am

    Because Putin protects him. If you remove Putin, you remove Kudrin and the likes.

    Why does Putin keep him around? Possibly to keep enemies closer than friends.

    People like Gunship thinks it's good to keep him around. It isn't. It didn't stop him from not doing his job. Kudrin has one job yet still acts like he is finance minister, which he isn't. Add to it, he is adding his own official seal (government) to his documents which don't have anything to do with the federal government cause that isn't his position.

    So he should have been arrested for:
    - treason when he was finance minister
    - supporting the enemy (financial plus bad mouthing his boss in US after being fired initially)
    - Falsifying government documentations using official seal to something that ISNT his job description
    - Misuse of funds during his run in finance ministry
    - libel against other politicians

    I see that Russian government does not even take advantage of their own law structure in dealing against these people.  So who is protecting him? Putin. Even Medvedev, whom everyone loves to hate because being a liberal, fired his incompetent ass.  Yet Putin brings him back.

    Putin isn't exactly who we all say he is. He isn't a concervative. Nor is he really beneficial for Russia.  Only reason why change happened was necessity. And it is becoming clear to even Putin locals are upset with the liberals causing damage to the country so he has little choice but do what the people want.

    If it was his choice, Russian government would go back to robbing it's people blind and placing money outside the country.

    But there are the nationalists whom are gaining traction as seen in regional politics.

    Edit: not saying Putin is against the people, but that he isn't a one man team. There are those in his government that hate Kudrin. The ones not in his government that love Kudrin are also influential people (Chubias the fucktard). And these people are dangerous to Russia's stability.

    Hence why a Stalin is needed tbh. Someone that would line these fuckers up and shoot them. But those days are gone and Russia has to work with what they got. And they sure do not have a whole lot to work with.
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    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:39 am

    Even though this is from Vedomisti it has some info on National Project




    Results of 2018. The authorities have bet on national projects


    https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2018/12/27/790623-na

    The forecast of economic growth in 2018 at 1.8% is most likely not justified. Growth was 1.9% at the beginning of the year, and in the second half of the year, the economy shifted to stagnation: in the third quarter, growth slowed to 1.5%. Growth will be within 1.7% - this is the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters. The growth will be in the range from 1.5 to 2%, acknowledged the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin.

    2018 is still far from the target indicators set by President Vladimir Putin in a May decree - to enter the top five largest economies in the world by 2024 and accelerate economic growth to rates above average. Economists are unanimous to achieve this without structural reforms: Russia not only will not close the gap with developed economies, but will yield to other Eastern European countries, warns the IMF and lists restrictions: weak infrastructure development, population aging, a high proportion of the state in the economy, insufficient integration into the global economy.


    The answer should be the 13 national projects that the authorities intend to execute until 2024. Their total cost is 20.8 trillion rubles, of which 13 trillion rubles. should give the federal budget. The price of decrees is high for people and business - in the name of Putin’s orders, the government raised the VAT from 18 to 20%, decided to complete the oil tax maneuver and raise the retirement age.




    Macroeconomics and Budget

    Experts on the ceiling of the growth of the Russian economy, national projects and the new social contract between society and the state

    But for now, there are a lot of questions and complaints about the national projects. They are poorly developed, said a federal official. Many are like a collection of wishes, previously rejected, of various ministries and departments - and they didn’t become much better, another official complained. The lack of development of projects was also indicated by the participants of the parliamentary hearings: the programs did not become an effective tool. And the auditors of the Accounts Chamber noticed the inconsistency of the goals and objectives of the projects. Nobody keeps statistics on 70% of approved projects, and plans for many of them will be approved in December 2019, i.e., it will be possible to evaluate how the work is going on until 2020. Some projects do not at all meet the objectives set. indicators and results are poorly defined, which creates risks of making inadequate and untimely decisions,

    Analysts of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration and the Gaidar Institute had complaints about the national health project - the share of equipment costs is too high, and there is not enough medical care.

    The government is going to fight poverty and increase the minimum wage and accelerate economic growth, a federal official said ironically.

    Decisions on some national projects are not yet final. Officials, for example, cannot agree on which roads to build: so far, three projects to improve communication with Nizhny Novgorod have been added to the trunk plan.


    Paying for future growth will have in 2019.: growth will slow to 1.3%. The increase in VAT will bring the budget 1.7 trillion rubles. in 2019–2021, but it will also reduce GDP growth by 0.4 pp, analysts at the Central Bank indicated, and will accelerate inflation to 5–5.5%. And even lead to stagnation in the first half of 2019, economists of VEB are worried.


    In a year, the economy should accelerate - mainly due to investments: they will increase immediately to 7.6% from 3.1% a year earlier, awaiting the Ministry of Economic Development. Due to this, economic growth from 2021 should exceed 3%. But one should not count on such investment growth, nor on the fact that it will accelerate GDP as the government expects, that is, on average, 5.6% and 2.6% per year, respectively, in 2018–2024 , warned experts of the Center for the Development of the Higher School of Economics.

    In recent years, the government has already tried to solve the problems of the economy by accelerating investments, recalls the chief economist at Alfa Bank Orlov: for 2013–2018. about $ 75 billion was spent on infrastructure projects, but since 2008 investments have decreased by 1% by 2018. The government finances investment projects, but private companies are holding back investments, reacting to increased risks, she notes, uncertainty due to sanctions and business distrust can neutralize measures to accelerate GDP growth.
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    Post  Austin on Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:40 am

    [size=51]CEO of Rostec: New sanctions are unlikely to be able to knock us down[/size]


    https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/characters/2018/12/17/789525-rosteha
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:50 am

    I find if a private company refuses to invest back into the market that made them in the first place, over "sanctions" then that company should be taxed to the extreme so that then the money does go back into the system as investment.  Sanctions shouldn't matter if the company is Russian or operating in Russia. If they don't like it, then they can leave and someone else will fill the gap.

    This is why private industries are more of a burden than a pro.

    But this time it's proclaimed that private industries will invest 15T Rubles.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:17 pm

    I wouldn't post another link from Vedomosti if I were you.

    https://meduza.io/en/news/2017/07/21/russian-media-giant-demyan-kudryavtsev-has-been-stripped-of-his-russian-citizenship

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vedomosti

    Its owned by a Jew in Israel now.

    Same guy owns: The Moscow Times, etc.  Previously was owned by all western firms.

    His appeal to retain is citizenship was denied in 2017 due to him incorrectly filling out the forms. He goes on to say it was because "they are against him for exposing corruption". In other words, he is a fucking twat and his readers are too.

    So it really has nothing to do with Russia.  Which explains a lot about its publications (anti Russian).
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Jan 08, 2019 1:27 am

    Not surprising.

    That thief and murderer Browder thought Putin was wonderful when he was in Russia stealing from Russians and getting away with it...
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    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Jan 08, 2019 5:00 am

    Onto real news (Not western news on Russia in Russian disguising itself as real news but owned by Israeli foreigners who have a chip on their shoulder)

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/115901/

    In Russia, a new special economic zone "Center"


    the decree "About creation on the territory of the municipality Novousmanskiy, Voronezh region special economic zone of industrial-production type".

    The creation of the special economic zone "the Center" will contribute to the economic development of the Voronezh region, the formation of favorable conditions for realization of the Russian and foreign companies of investment industrial projects, creation of new jobs.

    On the territory of SEZ "Center" planned development of metallurgical production (including for the needs of the aircraft industry), chemical industry, building materials industry, production of equipment for food industry, heavy engineering, energy engineering, electrochemical and cable industry, oil and gas engineering, machine-tool industry, shipbuilding equipment (parts of marine peripheral equipment), electronic industry, pharmaceutical and medical industries, civil aviation, engine.

    Someone should check through all the special economic zones that exist in Russia. I heard they are real money makers and its rather a good way to move industry/manufacturing to specific area while rest of the city is residential, municipal, administration and Service.
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    Russian Economy General News: #9 - Page 39 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Hole on Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:40 am

    http://www.ved.gov.ru/eng/investing/sez/

    More infos about the zones.
    GunshipDemocracy
    GunshipDemocracy

    Posts : 4913
    Points : 4943
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Age : 77
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Russian Economy General News: #9 - Page 39 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Jan 08, 2019 12:37 pm

    @ALL

    guys, please dont shoot the messenger, I mean Austin. He is just bringing view form Russia but other part then we support. But it doesnt mean all news are incorrect. What is IMHO good. I dotn agree with most of liberal views but liberals are also part of Russian society and you need to take them into account when talkinh about Russia.


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    Russian Economy General News: #9 - Page 39 Empty Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

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