Russian Economy General News: #9

Russians buy up savings certificates on the eve of their ban

https://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/articles/2018/05/17/769844-rossiyane-skupayut-sberegatelnie-sertifikati

In the first quarter of 2018, the population's funds in Russian banks increased by 0.3% (by 67.8 billion rubles to 26 trillion rubles), the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) reported. At the same time, the amount of funds placed in savings certificates for bearer, unexpectedly increased by as much as 6% to 411 billion rubles. (plus 23.3 billion). This follows from the DIA report.

Most of the savings certificates are issued by Sberbank , all of them are bearer. Moreover, according to the bank, for the first quarter of this year, the balance of the population's funds in its securities grew by 26 billion rubles. This is more than the market, according to the DIA.

"Such a discrepancy may be due to the fact that part of the certificates of other banks during this period was repaid," suggests Frank RG CEO Yuri Gribanov.

The Chinese economy is more than 5 times the size of Russian GDP and increases by 6% in year. The distance will increase very quickly.

Good for China... there is lots of room to develop and grow... be lets be serious... over time the west is going to start to get really nervous about Chinese growth, and you know they will start acting to stop it... they are already doing the same against Russia now.

The question is... is China going to listen to the west and the US and think Russia and India are their enemy, or are they going to listen to Russia and realise it is the west that will try to limit your growth and development...

What is Plan B if Nord Stream fails ?

Europe needs to pipe in a surplus so that if they need extra they already have it and don't leave it to get extra supplies.

If the store enough reserves they should be OK... otherwise they can buy more wool from New Zealand and Russia....

If Russia can't send more gas to Europe via pipelines... the cheapest and most efficient way, then if europe needs more Russia can sell more expensive liquified gas... still cheaper than US equivalent... but will cost them more.

With China, if they need another pipeline they build another pipeline... very sensible and great for the Chinese... they get cheap gas when they need it.

With Savings of 26 Trillion Roubles , ~ $ 416 Billion with inflation of 2.5 % and 3 year deposit interest rate of Sebrbank between 5- 4.8 %

https://russia.deposits.org/deposits/sberbank/


Its a very safe way to earn money beating inflation 2 %

Austin wrote:What is Plan B if Nord Stream fails ?

Sell via LNG. Let EU freeze, etc.

miketheterrible wrote:

Austin wrote:What is Plan B if Nord Stream fails ?

Sell via LNG.  Let EU freeze, etc.

Or use coal and wood. Very glood for the climate.

Austin wrote:These EU are helpless puppies , US is openly threatening EU on Nord Stream-2

not helpless but after II WW the whole world was organized around US/ $ . Check Bretton Woods/ Washington consensus stuff for start. There is no way to kill US dominance now. You need organic work first . Like creation of parallel systems. Like China/Russia do.

EU is trying to fight back but is not one organism and still depends in many ways n US. Not ot mention that Germany/Italy are still under US occupation. And eastern Europe's elites even invited U$ invaders to own territories/ Let me guess in exchange for own benefits

Hole wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:

Austin wrote:What is Plan B if Nord Stream fails ?

Sell via LNG.  Let EU freeze, etc.

Or use coal and wood. Very glood for the climate.

EU wont freeze, but will have to pay more for the same (example richest countries as Poland & Baltic Tigers   ) - LNG.  if Nord Stram 2 fails indeed  LNG (Yamal && Kamchatka) to both to EU and Asia, perhaps pipe to South Korea / Japan.

But NS2 has another aspect - Germany and Russia with more mutual turnover will be closer also politically. This IMHO is biggest problem  anglo-saxons hate to see.

This would make Chine soon biggest Russia's partner before EU in ~2024... I wonder where those "sanction EU centrist" elites will say?



The trade turnover between Russia and China could exceed $ 100 billion in 2018

The volume of mutual trade between Russia and China in 2018 may exceed 100 billion dollars, and by 2020 - to reach 200 billion. This is reported by TASS with reference to the deputy director of the Central Asia and Eastern Europe Department of the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC Liu Suesuna.

"China has been Russia's largest trading partner for eight consecutive years. For the first quarter, the volume of trade increased by 30% compared to the previous year. It is expected that this figure will exceed $ 100 billion, "the official said.

As noted by Suesun, the Ministry of Commerce of China will maintain cooperation with relevant departments of the Russian Federation, optimize the structure of trade, help build a new industry, including e-business.

He also drew attention to joint successes in energy, space industry, construction. Moscow and Beijing promote cooperation in the digital economy, joint development of the Arctic, the "Digital Silk Road" and the "Ice Silk Road". {}

Pavel Nastin 11:51 05/05/2018

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201805151149-mws3.htm

Arrow wrote:The Chinese economy is more than 5 times the size of Russian GDP  and increases by 6% in year. The distance will increase very quickly.

you didnt answer my question, I wonder why? what successful economy do you represent  dont be shy!
BTW China has 10x times more population too

Free trade agreement between Eurasian Economic Union and Iran is signed.

Hole wrote:Free trade agreement between Eurasian Economic Union and Iran is signed.

what makes internal Asian market even bigger. Good for trade outside EU/US. Nothing better then competition


unlikely though. But for support for families with 4-5kids + would need money aSAP

The State Duma will consider the possibility of distributing oil money between Russians

Part of the income from mining is proposed to be distributed between pensioners, officially employed and unemployed. The corresponding bill was initiated by a group of chamber deputies from the Communist Party faction.

The bill proposes in the first year to distribute between citizens 20% of annual income from the extraction of natural resources in the territory of Russia, and each subsequent year to raise this figure by two percent.


In the explanatory note to the draft law, calculations are made according to which, in the event of the adoption of the law, every citizen who meets the criteria specified in the bill is able to receive about 10,000 rubles in 2018.

Recipients of the "thirteenth salary", the authors consider, can become 72 million officially employed citizens, 43 million pensioners and 247,000 unemployed registered in the state institutions of the employment service.

According to the developers, thus, the bill will stimulate citizens to formalize labor relations in accordance with the current legislation and "contribute to reducing the shadow economy."

The State Duma intends to consider the document in the first reading on May 16.

Earlier, the "Parliamentary Gazette" reported that the initiative received a negative response from the Government, because the proposed changes go beyond the scope of the legal regulation of the subsoil law to which they are made. Also, the State Duma Committee on Natural Resources, Property and Land Relations recommended that the Chamber not support the draft law.

According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the level of oil and gas revenues that make up the vast majority of federal budget revenues related to the extraction of minerals in 2018 will amount to 5 trillion 133 billion rubles, in 2019 - 5 trillion 370 billion rubles.

https://www.pnp.ru/economics/gosduma-rassmotrit-vozmozhnost-raspredeleniya-neftyanykh-deneg-mezhdu-rossiyanami.html

Putin promised to fight for the "Nord Stream - 2"

https://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2018/05/18/769987-putin-ssha

Russia considers the Nord Stream-2 project to be profitable and intends to fight for it. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin at a joint briefing with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, commenting on the US threat to impose sanctions against the companies participating in the project.

The US position on this project has long been known, one can say "about the rare fact of continuity" of the current administration by the current administration, Putin said. He noted that Washington itself explains its position "with only two considerations." Firstly, it is support of Ukraine, " which does not really want to develop relations with Russia, but it takes our money for transit with pleasure," and it's about $ 2-3 billion a year, Putin said .

"The US wants us to feed Ukraine a little bit with our money," the president added. At the same time, he added that Russia is ready to preserve the transit of gas through Ukraine, if there is economic feasibility.

Secondly, Donald Trump is "not just a president, but also a good entrepreneur," Putin said. He promotes the interests of his business with the goal of securing the sale of American Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). He wants to promote his product to the European market. "Is it possible? Maybe, "the president noted. However, according to him, this gas is more expensive than natural Russian gas by about 25-30%.

The President also noted that the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline can supply gas not only to Germany, but also to other European countries, for example, to Great Britain and Norway. The project is open for participation of other companies in it, not only those that already participate in it, the head of state added. Now the "Nord Stream-2" project is being implemented by Gazprom together with the European companies Engie, Uniper OMV, Shell, Wintershall.

Putin recalled that in Europe, several terminals have been built to receive LNG, but their load is 25-30%. "It is economically inexpedient - it's very expensive," he explained the reason for the low load. According to him, the success of the American LNG promotion to the European market "depends on us, on how we will build relations with our partners, it depends on our partners in Europe."

In turn, Merkel suggested considering the guarantees of preserving the transit of gas through the territory of Ukraine. According to her, "Nord Stream - 2" is an economic project. "We are convinced that after the construction of the North Stream-2, the transit role of Ukraine must remain. This is of strategic importance, "she noted.

The Wall Street Journal quoted sources as saying that Donald Trump, in a meeting with Angela Merkel in April, tried to persuade her to give up support for Nord Stream-2. The US president wants American companies to become major gas suppliers to European countries instead of Gazprom, unnamed European officials told the publication. One of them noted that Europe will not do this until Russian pipeline gas is cheaper than US LNG by 20%. In turn, the deputy head of the department of the State Department for Energy Policy Sandra Oudkir said that the US is considering the possibility of imposing sanctions against companies involved in the implementation of the "Nord Stream - 2".

Immunity to default : Investors believe in the sustainability of the Russian economy

https://iz.ru/744074/inna-grigoreva-tatiana-gladysheva/immunitet-k-defoltu

This is due to the fact that Russia is coping well with stressful situations in the economy and successfully coping risks on its securities. For comparison: the study says that the risk of default of the Russian Federation during the 2008 crisis was estimated at 60%. And during the crisis of 2014-2015, when the price of oil fell to $ 28-30 per barrel, in 23%.

Now at the level of 23%, the risk of Ukraine's default is estimated, it follows from the document. This is the worst indicator in the ranking. Better things go in Argentina (20.4%) and Bahrain (19.6%). Russia is located on the eighth line, ahead of South Africa with the risk of bankruptcy at 12%. Next to Russia are also Mexico and Colombia with a default probability of 9 and 8.4% respectively.

The most reliable countries for lending are Germany, France, the United States, Great Britain and Japan. The possibility of bankruptcy of the listed countries is in the range of 1.1-2.4%. At the same time, most investors believe in the reliability of not those countries that have the least public debt, but those with a stable political situation within the state, the document stresses. For example, Japan's national debt is 253% of its GDP, but the risk of default is 2.4%. The volume of Turkey's national debt is only 28%, and the probability of bankruptcy is estimated by investors at 14.4%. The debt of Russia is 12.6% in relation to the country's GDP.

What a BS.

Hole wrote:What a BS.

Indeed. Pure magic numbers straight from the anus.

The probability of Russia defaulting in 2008 was lass than 0.1%. It had reserves to cover all of the debt obligations of the
sovereign. These articles deliberately mix in private debt with Russian government debt to confuse the issue. Private
companies have their own individual risks of defaulting, just as they have of going bankrupt. This is another subject altogether.

Yeah, and Japan is absolutely save from default. Or our "friends" in Washington.

That is a stupid excuse from Sberbank.  There is nothing that stands in the way of that bank moving its assets or dividends to Russia.  Sanctions doesn't do that, especially when it is your own asset in Turkey and approved by Turkish laws.  So there is something else involved in it.  German Gref is a fifth column retard so I wouldn't be surprised if he was forced to do it by his European friends. If it was the case, then they (Sberbank) wouldn't be able to sell it and transfer it to home.

I wonder if it was actually just doing lousy overall and so they figured to call it quits?

Russian Railways will spend 10 Trillion Rouble till 2025 as part of its expansion plans

Interview with Russian Railways Chief

https://ria.ru/interview/20180522/1521019975.html

How much is the volume of investments in the adjusted program of RZD until 2025, taking into account the president's instructions in the so-called new May decree?

- According to preliminary estimates, 10 trillion rubles. The decree clearly outlines the main parameters: the delivery of cargo for seven days from the Far East to the western borders of Russia, the growth of container traffic fourfold, the increase in the capacity of the Baikal-Amur Mainline and Transsib to 180 million tons, the increase in the capacity of railway approaches to the seaports of the Azov-Black Sea basin , creating the basis for the development of high-speed and high-speed rail services between major Russian cities.

Based on these instructions, we understand what needs to be done. In this case, a special emphasis will be placed on the development of the passenger movement. The implementation of the DPR will almost double our contribution to the gross product - up to 9.1 trillion rubles by 2025. At the same time, conditions will be created for the development of related industries, the operator market, manufacturers of rolling stock. We must not become a brake on the development of the economy. No matter what scale plans are built by representatives of other industries, if they do not correlate with our capabilities, no one will go anywhere, we clearly understand this. Moreover, the investment cycle is longer: it takes about three to seven years, depending on how quickly the project is being implemented. Production is developing many times faster. We need to try to improve the technology and production processes not to become a bottleneck for him. This is a very ambitious task. We not only plan to solve it, but also create a certain reserve for the future.

- If I remember correctly, initially the volume of investments in projects was planned up to 2025 in the amount of 7.5 trillion rubles, of which more than 5 trillion rubles were ready to be invested by Russian Railways. That is, in addition to fulfilling the orders of the president will require about 2.5 trillion rubles?

- At the moment, the basic scenario for the DPR is 7.2 trillion rubles in terms of RZD's investments. And the total amount of financing will be 10 trillion rubles. Accordingly, private investment is about 2.8 trillion rubles. The project is under study, the figures may change, but, most likely, insignificantly.



РИА Новости https://ria.ru/interview/20180522/1521019975.html

"You can take a little bit": why Russia will get into debt

https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2018/05/24/11762353.shtml


As Gazeta.ru supposed, the government will increase the amount of public debt to implement the provisions of the presidential decree on national priorities.

First Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, speaking at the panel session "The Russian Economy on the Growth Path" at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum (SPIEF), said that an infrastructure fund would be created.

Its volume will be 3% of GDP, which is equivalent to about 3 trillion rubles. Later Siluanov's deputy Vladimir Kolychev specified on the margins of the forum that it was a maximum of 3 trillion rubles in the period until 2024. Until this year, the fund itself will work. The volume of borrowings will increase by 100-200 billion a year from the current level. This year the government plans to borrow about 1 trillion rubles.


"This money is not money incomes, not from oil and gas revenues. This is the money that we plan to get from raising debt financing. We can raise money from the market and direct investments that will create additional state assets that will work for the economy, "he said.

Anton Siluanov stressed that "in no case this will lead to a change in the principles of our budget policy, including the cut-off price, from which our revenues are formed." According to him, the national debt of the Russian Federation currently makes up 13-14% of GDP, and it is not expected to significantly increase it.

According to the Ministry of Finance , the state domestic debt of the Russian Federation, expressed in government securities, as of April 1, 2018, was 7.219 trillion rubles. (state guarantees amounted to 1.457 trillion rubles). The external debt as of April 1, 2018 was $ 51.393 billion, including $ 10.937 billion on state guarantees in foreign currency.

Thus, without state guarantees, the domestic public debt is approximately 8% of GDP, the external debt is about 3%. With state guarantees - 9.4% and 3.5% of GDP, respectively. That is, at the moment the aggregate state debt of the Russian Federation with all guarantees is about 13% of GDP.

This is an extremely low level by world standards. For example, the US public debt exceeds 100% of GDP. The expenditure on debt servicing in the Russian Federation is also relatively low and account for about 5% of the total federal budget expenditures.

It is worth recalling that the topic of infrastructure mortgage is the Ministry of Economic Development. The president's assignment was given back in 2016 at the same SPIEF. The Ministry of Economic Development and Finance had earlier disagreements on the issue of creating a fund and the mechanisms for its filling. The head of the economic department, Maxim Oreshkin , who also participated in the panel session with Anton Siluanov , did not give any explanations from himself on this topic.

News smi2.ru
Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina , commenting on the issue of increasing the national debt, noted that it is important that the funds were not simply withdrawn from the market. In this case, the government will reduce the opportunities for investing in the private sector.

"The debt is low, it seems that you can take a little bit. I absolutely agree with Siluanov that this is necessary up to a certain limit and it is clear that these are ... expenses that increase GDP, "she said.

In her opinion, in case of an increase in external borrowings, the ruble will somewhat strengthen, which compensates for inflationary effects.

"Selection of infrastructure projects for the fund is a key topic for both impact on economic growth and macro stability," the CB head also stressed.

Investments are the main driver of economic growth, according to Siluanov and Oreshkin. The increase in state debt is one of the resources for their financing. But the main source is the private sector and its means. Therefore, Siluanov promised not to raise taxes, but to create conditions for the growth of private investments.

Elvira Nabiullina will not give money to the economy, but says that the regulator will pursue a policy that stimulates an increase in lending to investments and business operations, and discourages financing of mergers and acquisitions. In addition, it is necessary to develop financial markets and the pension system. Retirement money is the source of long-term loans for the economy. The Central Bank is planning, together with the Ministry of Finance, to finalize the concept of individual pension capital, which is highly prepared.

"We need to return pension savings to the system. This is necessary for two purposes: to ensure a decent pension for retired people and for us to have "long" money. And the concept of individual pension capital - we studied it - in our opinion, in a high degree of readiness, it must be accepted, "the CB head is sure.

The increase in investments in the economy is associated with an increase in the rate of saving the population, agrees Maxim Oreshkin.

"If we do not have an accumulative pension system that is powerful in proportion to the size of the economy, we can not speak about the growth of investments," he said.

He also believes that if the problems accumulated in the economy (in particular, reduction of the able-bodied population) are not solved, then the growth rate will drop to 1% per year.

The unity of the officials of the financial and economic bloc was almost monumental. He was not violated by Alexei Kudrin , the other day appointed by the head of the Accounts Chamber . He urged, however, to add funding to education and healthcare, and also to begin reforming the public administration system. He supported the idea of ​​creating an infrastructure fund.

"Our debt today is low by the world standards - about 13% of GDP all sovereign debt, this is our great resource, our reserve for the coming years in order to invest this infrastructure in infrastructure," Kudrin said.

Participating in the discussion, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, praised the Russian government for exemplary, in her opinion, budgetary and monetary policy, which allowed not to inflate costs and reduce inflation. She also urged the authorities not to touch the budget rule in the coming years. Alexei Kudrin also believes that the cut-off price can be increased from $ 40 to $ 45 per barrel. This will increase budget revenues and continue to accumulate reserves.

This is strange. Siluanov, Nabiullina and Kudrin sounded quite reasonable. Propably Putin standing behind the curtain, with a gun in his hand.

Hole wrote:This is strange. Siluanov, Nabiullina and Kudrin sounded quite reasonable.  Propably Putin standing behind the curtain, with a gun in his hand.

Like I have said, Kudrin despite his character pitfalls,  is a good economist.

Hannibal Barca wrote:

Hole wrote:This is strange. Siluanov, Nabiullina and Kudrin sounded quite reasonable.  Propably Putin standing behind the curtain, with a gun in his hand.

Like I have said, Kudrin despite his character pitfalls,  is a good economist.

BS. He flip flops like there is no tomorrow. Nothing stops him from say the right things at the right time. His actual
beliefs is what is the real problem.

I think his real belief is in his bank account.

Russia ready to ditch dollar in favor of euro in foreign trade – finance minister

https://www.rt.com/business/427654-russia-euro-payments-trade/