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    Russian Economy General News: #9

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    Austin

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    Post  Austin on Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:53 am

    Russia & India seek to boost trade, switch to national currencies

    https://www.rt.com/business/438508-india-russia-investment-national-currencies/
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    Post  Austin on Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:57 am

    David Stockman | $20 Trillion Elephant in the Room

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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:14 pm

    Austin wrote:India-Russia set $ 50 billion trade target for 2025

    Good news, especially that besides mutual benefits India's economical and demographical weight is making her hard nut to crack by US.


    Foreign vessels will temporarily be allowed to pass through the Northern Sea Route

    VLADIVOSTOK, September 15 - RIA Novosti. Some types of foreign sea vessels will be allowed to pass the Northern Sea Route in the first time after the entry into force of the ban on the passage of foreign-made vessels along Russian waters, said Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov on the Rossiya TV channel .

    It is planned that the ban will be effective from January 1, 2019.
    "According to the government's decision, it will be allowed to pass vessels of another construction, because we can not immediately cover all types of ships, I believe that there are no anti-market measures here." This is normal protection of the Russian manufacturer, and it should stimulate the loading, including "Stars" (a shipyard in the Far East - Ed.), "Said Borisov.


    РИА Новости https://ria.ru/economy/20180915/1528629762.html
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    Post  PapaDragon on Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:22 pm

    dino00 wrote:Russian Federal Budget Surplus In January-August Totaled $28.3Bln - Finance Ministry

    The surplus of Russia's federal budget in January-August totaled 1.962 trillion rubles ($28.35 billion), according to a preliminary assessment, the Russian Finance Ministry said Wednesday.

    The surplus amounted to 3.1 percent of GDP, the ministry said.

    https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/russian-federal-budget-surplus-in-january-aug-430790.html


    Okay so a sanctioned economy that is supposedly experiencing problems has a freaking 28 billion bucks budget surplus?

    So either they are completely resistant to sanctions or rules of global economy do not work as advertised.

    Anyone care to elaborate?
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    Post  Hole on Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:34 pm

    Which rules? There are no rules in predatory capitalism.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:47 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    dino00 wrote:Russian Federal Budget Surplus In January-August Totaled $28.3Bln - Finance Ministry

    The surplus of Russia's federal budget in January-August totaled 1.962 trillion rubles ($28.35 billion), according to a preliminary assessment, the Russian Finance Ministry said Wednesday.

    The surplus amounted to 3.1 percent of GDP, the ministry said.

    https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/russian-federal-budget-surplus-in-january-aug-430790.html


    Okay so a sanctioned economy that is supposedly experiencing problems has a freaking 28 billion bucks budget surplus?

    So either they are completely resistant to sanctions or rules of global economy do not work as advertised.

    Anyone care to elaborate?


    First of all Russian economy IS impacted substantially since 2014.
    Budget surplus is mostly indicative of the great precautions taken by Russia to avoid vulnerability in this economic war but is not the hole story.
    Interest rates, growth rates and exchange rates shows the impact. On the other hand the impact is marginal at best.
    This is because Russia builds economic ties with other nations. Lately they approach the level of immunity that Soviet Union had.
    That's why Washington tries to target individuals and businesses and not the state like in Iran or China and desperate try to pose hydrocarbon alternatives, but this will fail as well.
    All in all, if the Chinese do their fair share, and if every Eastern power start to think big, this is a winning hand.
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    Post  Hole on Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:32 pm

    It means the russian economy is to big to by sanctioned. And the west is realy stupid, and so are his sanctions.

    Example: Sanction the flow of raw materials (oil, gas, iron ore and so on) to Germany and it will be hurt badly. Sanction toe supply of auto parts and the german economy will find a way to substitute them in a few month.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:59 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:

    Okay so a sanctioned economy that is supposedly experiencing problems has a freaking 28 billion bucks budget surplus?

    So either they are completely resistant to sanctions or rules of global economy do not work as advertised.

    Anyone care to elaborate?

    But economy is experiencing problems. It is nos to rosy there is still much, economic growth is wobbling around 1% (instead of 4-5) , money is still not fully controlled (look at number cases of bribery), lots of debts in $. There is still much to be done.

    Because of external pressure Russia cannot just spent those billions of surplus because you never know where they hit next...

    The good side is that Russia with each iteration is improving and making economy more "mobile and adaptive". The bad thing is that they cannot ivest and export as much as they could otherwise.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:53 pm

    https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/hidden-growth-of-russian-gdp/

    GDP Growth measurement is a total joke.

    If one takes debt into it, the west would not be gaining anything.

    Russia does not take into account a lot of stuff that would be classified as growth.

    I would just follow experts advise.
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    Post  Hole on Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:57 am

    There was an article on RI from Mr. Hellevig that looked into that matter. Real growth in the first quarter was 8,5% instead of the 1 or 2% officially declared.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:36 pm

    Hole wrote:There was an article on RI from Mr. Hellevig that looked into that matter. Real growth in the first quarter was 8,5% instead of the 1 or 2% officially declared.

    I read that one (mike just posted it)

    Basically it says that Russia is pretty much concealing it's economic growth numbers (second to last paragraph)

    Any ideas why would they be doing that?
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    Post  franco on Sun Sep 16, 2018 2:49 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Hole wrote:There was an article on RI from Mr. Hellevig that looked into that matter. Real growth in the first quarter was 8,5% instead of the 1 or 2% officially declared.

    I read that one (mike just posted it)

    Basically it says that Russia is pretty much concealing it's economic growth numbers (second to last paragraph)

    Any ideas why would they be doing that?

    They want the West to think they are winning and continue doing what they are doing Twisted Evil
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:13 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Hole wrote:There was an article on RI from Mr. Hellevig that looked into that matter. Real growth in the first quarter was 8,5% instead of the 1 or 2% officially declared.

    I read that one (mike just posted it)

    Basically it says that Russia is pretty much concealing it's economic growth numbers (second to last paragraph)

    Any ideas why would they be doing that?


    Fog of war? underestimate strength fo enemy is one of cardinal errors you can make.  There are many good analytic centers in West the question is if ruling classes listen to them... i wouldn't be suprrise fi ggold reserves were "a bit higher" then officially reported.

    BTW crude prices growth is good but has little to do with budget revenue growth so far most of it is piled in reserves.  preparation to something we dont know yet?




    BTW idiots are like Jedi force, growing around all living organisms:

    In the Ministry of Internal Affairs there was stopped the billion purchase of a PC with Windows


    FAS did not allow the Ministry of Internal Affairs to complete a billion purchase of computers with a pre-installed Windows OS. The reason for the proceedings was the complaint of a public organization whose representatives insisted on the irrelevance of the use of the Microsoft product, while there is an operating system of Rosteha OS.

    Ministry of Internal Affairs left without Windows
    The authorities did not allow the Ministry of Internal Affairs to purchase more than 30,000 desktop computers, for which the ministry was ready to spend 1.07 billion rubles, due to the fact that the bidding documentation prescribed the need for the delivery of technology with the pre-installed 64-bit Microsoft Windows 7 Pro operating system. The corresponding tender in the format of an electronic auction was announced by the Ministry of Internal Affairs on August 30, 2018, and officials intended to carry out bidding directly on October 1.

    These plans the ministry will now have to adjust. The requirement to pre-install the foreign software attracted the attention of the public organization Stopkartel from Nizhny Novgorod, and its chairman, Alexander Kulakov , August 31 filed a complaint with the FAS.

    In it, Kulakov insisted that the customer, in violation of the well-known decrees and specifying orders of the Government of Russia limiting the admission to public procurement of foreign software, did not clearly substantiate the need for Windows preinstallation.

    Note that in the procurement documentation of the Ministry of Internal Affairs there is a remark that the equivalent of Windows on the tender is not provided - "in connection with the need to ensure the interaction of this software with the software used by the customer." Moreover, formally the whole section of the documentation is devoted precisely to the justification of "impossibility of observing the ban on admission of software originating from foreign states". However, there is really no concrete indication of the fact that this or that product from the Register of Domestic Software, which is under the control of the Ministry of Communications, does not satisfy the customer.

    After consideration of the complaint, the FAS agreed with Kulakov's arguments and ordered the Ministry of Internal Affairs to eliminate the violations before October 24, 2018. At the time of publication, the press service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs did not respond to CNews, whether the ministry intends to challenge the decision of the supervisory authority in any way.

    With an emphasis on the operating system "Rosteha" "OS"
    It is noteworthy that Kulakov, in his complaint, briefly mentions that there are various OSes in the Domestic Software Registry that can replace Windows 7, but he directly cites, and more than once, only the name of the OS of the "National Information Center" (NCI; ) - "OS".

    Regarding it, the complainant notes that it is "compatible with Windows 7 application programs and is compatible with certified information security tools (VipNet Client," CryptoPro ", Kaspersky Lab's antivirus), is compatible with applications used in the MIA, is compatible with Microsoft formats Office, does not require special skills in the transition to work from the operating system Windows 7 ".

    In general, in his complaint Kulkakov, who was also introduced as an activist of the Moscow Public Popular Front, sees the replacement of Windows 7 as a way to "break the monopoly of the American software", which is especially relevant "during the period of US sanctions prohibiting the export of domestic goods, materials and equipment to the United States and countries of the European Union ".

    What is OS?
    The emergence of the new operating system "OS" became widely known in April 2017, when the application for inclusion of this product was registered in the Register of domestic software. At the same time, according to the NCI, a separate unit for the creation and development of products based on its own developed OS appeared in the company in early 2016.

    The system is based on Linux and is geared towards use in data centers, servers and client workstations. "The product family based on the OS operating system is created for the integrated automation of workplaces and IT infrastructure of organizations and enterprises," the NCI website says.

    "The difference is that it's not just an operating system, but essentially a product ecosystem - software complexes that can be used by organizations to solve the basic tasks of informatization," the developers say.

    Office "OS" includes an office software package, a mail program and a browser. The server OS is equipped with an email server, virtualization, monitoring and system management tools, as well as a database management system.

    Подробнее: http://www.cnews.ru/news/top/2018-09-13_v_mvd_presechena_milliardnaya_zakupka_pk_na_windows
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    Post  Hole on Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:06 pm

    Someone didn´t read the small print.

    The known gold reserves are from the central bank. But there are more state-owned banks. Plus a state treasury. There is certainly more gold.

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    Post  Kimppis on Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:06 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:Okay so a sanctioned economy that is supposedly experiencing problems has a freaking 28 billion bucks budget surplus?

    So either they are completely resistant to sanctions or rules of global economy do not work as advertised.

    Anyone care to elaborate?

    Yeah, first of all the global economy probably really doesn't work as "advertised". The global "official narrative" seems to somewhat exaggerate the importance of international trade and globalization. There are countries that are quite self-sufficient, Russia is one of them.

    One extreme example is China. There is this outdated meme that China is sooo dependent on its trade with the US, when in reality that trade is like 5% of its GDP as of 2017 and its domestic market is already absolutely massive. So this "trade war" comes too late to "stop" China.

    I think Hellevig calculated that Russia's import dependency is one of the lowest in the world, even when measured in nominal GDP.

    One of the reasons why interest rates are still so high, and why CBR keeps overestimating the inflation, is that its experts think that Russia is much more dependent on imports than it really is (i.e. the devaluations don't really increase inflation that much, because in reality imports are low).

    I think the surplus also shows you that they could be spending more and that's why the growth is still quite mediocre. I think they're planning to do just that from around 2020-21 onwards.

    Manufacturing is also growing quite well already AFAIK, good for import substitution and long-term growth, I suppose. However, the issue there is that Russia's GDP growth is mostly based on private consumption, whereas at the other extreme the booming agricultural sector is like 5% of Russia's GDP, so it has next to no direct impact on GDP growth.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:25 pm

    Kimppis wrote:

    Yeah, first of all the global economy probably really doesn't work as "advertised". The global "official narrative" seems to somewhat exaggerate the importance of international trade and globalization. There are countries that are quite self-sufficient, Russia is one of them.


    yet we have to differentiate self-sufficient to survive or to produce own competitive goods on world level. With fairly small population (compare to China, India or US) you cannot count on internal market to grow companies.

    I think Hellevig calculated that Russia's import dependency is one of the lowest in the world, even when measured in nominal GDP.

    yet what was structure of import did he provide with numbers?


    One of the reasons why interest rates are still so high, and why CBR keeps overestimating the inflation, is that its experts think that Russia is much more dependent on imports than it really is (i.e. the devaluations don't really increase inflation that much, because in reality imports are low).

    Because they favor prudent approach? it is easy to print money but this doesn't mean people will start buying Russian smartphones or bananas instead you gonna get more taste of Venezuela.


    I
    think the surplus also shows you that they could be spending more and that's why the growth is still quite mediocre. I think they're planning to do just that from around 2020-21 onwards.

    there are still many risks in geopolitics, they need a solid buffer.


    Manufacturing is also growing quite well already AFAIK, good for import substitution and long-term growth, I suppose. However, the issue there is that Russia's GDP growth is mostly based on private consumption, whereas at the other extreme the booming agricultural sector is like 5% of Russia's GDP, so it has next to no direct impact on GDP growth.

    import substitution is certainly a good starter but without external markets and continuous R&D + marketing not for long.



    More and more countries are looking for an alternative to the dollar, said Peskov


    He noted that the US dollar for many decades is the main world reserve currency.
    "And suddenly the country that is the emitter of the US dollar begins to admit steps that begin to loosen confidence in this reserve currency, and more and more countries, not only in the East but also in Europe, are beginning to think about how minimize dependence on the US dollar, and they suddenly realize that a) it is possible, b) it needs to be done and c) "you can save yourself," it should be done sooner, "Peskov said.

    РИА Новости https://ria.ru/economy/20180916/1528662986.html

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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:26 pm

    Hole wrote:Someone didn´t read the small print.

    The known gold reserves are from the central bank. But there are more state-owned banks. Plus a state treasury. There is certainly more gold.


    I hope so Smile
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:25 pm

    What i find interesting about the sale of the PC's with Windows, is that they should be contracting a local company to do the sales/deals. Instead, they should have looked at someone like Kraftway to obtain the hardware and then tell them they need the Linux OS that is made in Russia.

    Probably a lot cheaper option as well so government gets to save money.

    But glad to hear that the ministry was stopped from being able to make the purchase.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:25 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:What i find interesting about the sale of the PC's with Windows, is that they should be contracting a local company to do the sales/deals.  Instead, they should have looked at someone like Kraftway to obtain the hardware and then tell them they need the Linux OS that is made in Russia.

    Probably a lot cheaper option as well so government gets to save money.

    But glad to hear that the ministry was stopped from being able to make the purchase.


    only because of  popular front activists... I am scared to see how much mental inertia can make problems for Russia. BTW liberal rambler (lenta) o r TV Lozh in style: FAS left police without computers :-)

    You know this is against market and logic - american = best, Russian shit. Damn why those people live still in Russia if they hate Russia so much?!

    =========


    Vth column for a weekend : Link for Mike - relax man thy try to civilize Russians with atlanticist values lol1 lol1 lol1

    https://lenta.ru/articles/2018/08/14/megastroyki/

    Build all Russia is returning the Soviet future. It will be very expensive



    The Soviet Union was famous for its giant and ambitious megaprojects - BAM, virgin land, Volga-Don and many others. A large building is a great way to mobilize the population and distract it from everyday problems. Modern Russia in many respects repeats the Soviet experience: the Olympics, the World Championships, and now major infrastructure projects - the Crimean bridge, the high-speed highway to Grozny, the route near Sochi worth 1.5 trillion rubles, the bridge to Sakhalin, finally. Feasibility of projects is not always obvious, but it is obvious the huge cost of such long-term construction. Their payback is not the goal in principle - much more important is the "social significance" of the object, which authors and lobbyists like to speak about like that. Prospects gigantomania - in the material "Lenty.ru . "


    +++

    Without a chance of profit



    +++

    On construction sites of national importance, the Russian authorities are accustomed to act on the Soviet scheme, relying only on themselves and without regard for commerce, flooding the construction budget with the money of the federal budget. As a result, only contractors remain in the black, the rest of the economy does not get budget money.

    +++



    Last edited by GunshipDemocracy on Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:59 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:52 pm

    yeah, we get it.  We all know Lenta is a vth columnist bullshit.  Please don't quote them again or ill have to put you on mute cause its annoying. Or just don't place such ugly pictures as of Masha 2% or of that gross looking guy who owns Lenta.

    Anyway, shit will get built and computers will be purchased without windows.  Good.  Who cares what some jew from Lenta.ru and his navalny shit say.  They don't make a difference to Russia.

    Also, just place links next time too.
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    Post  Hole on Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:42 am

    Gigantic projects are the responsibility of the state. Small projects can be left to the private business.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:23 pm

    Hole wrote:Gigantic projects are the responsibility of the state. Small projects can be left to the private business.

    Apparently liberasts think abut invisible hand of market (in 90s they did the same thing BTW successes could be visible ) What a Face What a Face What a Face


    again more commodities traded without $


    One tube is good, but two is better. Moscow and Beijing hit on the hands


    MOSCOW, September 17 (Itar - Tass) - RIA Novosti, Alexander Lesnykh. During the meeting with the president of Russia in the framework of the WEF, Xi Jinping instructed the subordinates to coordinate all formalities in the shortest possible time to start the construction of the gas pipeline along the western route Altai, or, as it is also called, the Power of Siberia-2. What volumes of supplies are being discussed and further prospects for energy cooperation between Russia and China - in the RIA Novosti news agency.
    РИА Новости https://ria.ru/economy/20180917/1528586622.html
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    Post  Kimppis on Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:30 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:yet we have to differentiate self-sufficient to survive or to produce own   competitive goods on world level.  With fairly small population (compare to China, India or US) you cannot count on internal  market to grow companies.


    Correct, but there have been certain "tech" success stories like Yandex and VK. Compare that to whole Europe.

    yet what was structure of import did he provide with  numbers?


    Yes, that's a good point of course. I think it's mostly high-tech stuff and machine tools, etc, mainly from EU/Germany and increasingly, China. I have been very clear about those Russian limitations on this forum earlier.  

    Because they favor prudent approach?

    there are still many risks in geopolitics, they need a solid buffer.

    Russia is certainly very different from Turkey. Hopefully this "complaining" can stop in around 2021-22. Smile
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    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:27 pm

    It wont because you will find some other stupid excuse to complain. Especially when it was already pointed out before hand Russias production of machine tools, 3d printing and other high tech stuff.

    Nothing will be good enough for you.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Tue Sep 18, 2018 9:03 pm

    Kimppis wrote:
    GunshipDemocracy wrote:yet we have to differentiate self-sufficient to survive or to produce own   competitive goods on world level.  With fairly small population (compare to China, India or US) you cannot count on internal  market to grow companies.


    Correct, but there have been certain "tech" success stories like Yandex and VK. Compare that to whole Europe.

    You're right but my point was ability to scale up your business. Yandex is certainly bigger when operating not only in Russia. BK  is Russian language area mostly which is ~300mlns people. Problem with sanctions to me is no that US wont buy it. But that Us are going to chase each and every customer (or a potential one) to stop buying from Russia . Otherwise customer will get under sanctions too.





    yet what was structure of import did he provide with  numbers?
    Yes, that's a good point of course. I think it's mostly high-tech stuff and machine tools, etc, mainly from EU/Germany and increasingly, China. I have been very clear about those Russian limitations on this forum earlier.  

    as long as import is investment goodies and eventually mildly competing stuff already in production in Russia (to keep Russian companies going forward) is good. Only consumer goodies is wrong structure as is fueling inflation (you need $ to buy TV and if everybody wants that there is demand on $...)




    Because they favor prudent approach?

    there are still many risks in geopolitics, they need a solid buffer.

    Russia is certainly very different from Turkey. Hopefully this "complaining" can stop in around 2021-22. Smile[/quote]

    Putin in 2011 tarted with rearmament plan to be completed by 2020.  I dont think it was a coincidence. This was IMHO most probable start of US economy problems to be prepared for. First external security now economy. Perhpas 20-21 will be true eyars of "new growth".  thumbsup  thumbsup  thumbsup It looks like logical stuff. I believe economy growth numbers are sacrificed to  build solid foundations of economy and make more controllable states' money flow to projects



    Siluanov called the price of oil, in which the budget will be balanced


    MOSCOW, September 18 (Itar-Tass) - RIA Novosti.
    The Russian budget in 2019 will be balanced with an oil price of $ 40 per barrel, said Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

    Deputy Head of the Ministry of Finance gave a forecast on the equilibrium price of oil until 2024
    "If in the year of 2017 the price of oil at which balancing was provided was $ 60 per barrel, then some time ago this figure was $ 100 or more dollars per barrel. Thankfully, we are now going down the trend, and the price when we balance the budget , this year $ 50 per barrel, and next year we are talking about $ 40 per barrel, "Siluanov said at a meeting of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes.
    РИА Новости https://ria.ru/economy/20180918/1528814668.html



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    https://ria.ru/economy/20180918/1528825364.html

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