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    Russian Economy General News: #9

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    Vann7

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Vann7 on Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:45 pm

    Nibiru wrote:

    @Vann, venting out against Putin's supposed failures won't make a difference anyway, Putin is here to stay in power at least until his term finishes in 2024. Besides, its not like Russia had a better alternative to Putin after Yeltsin's disastrous years.

    I know Russia have no hopes with Putin in power.. he did some contribution already in terms of military and
    holding Russia in one piece.. But this is not enough.. making Russia stable ,is not enough..  When Putin talks
    about wanting stability in Russia , his policy.. he is not countering the forces that makes Russia unstable. So is only
    delaying the problem..  So i have no false expectations with Russia under Putin . Is Europe ,the only one that
    can save Russia from United States.. So the best possible scenario for Russia ,will be that Europe seek its own Independence and turn Russia into a semi vassal state. WIth Putin giving away some of Russia sovereignty if want
    Europe help ,so that Russia dont sink.

    Im only clarifying that Putin is not the Genius many here makes him to be.. he is only good in diplomacy , and nothing else. but he lacks of vision or understanding of the way to go for Russia Real Independence. Many fanboys of Putin have been claiming American sanctions dont work... wrong.. they hurt Russia economy big time.. the only thing they doing is minimizing the damage. but this sanctions of the west.. have forced Russia to cut funding in investment in Russia, and even take major Risk and promote reduce pensions on Russia.. playing with Fire. that is.
    And Russia space program is virtually silenced by Americans space achievements.. So Im only saying ,that no matter what Putin does.. how much Wheat records he brakes.. how much sport medals Russia wins.. that none of Putin "solutions" to counter Americans works.. zero.  nothing of what Putin does , will break the American system.
    Hoping for the west to change its hostilities against Russia that come back to "its senses "is irresponsible at this time.. Galloway ,the former lawmaker in Britain ,even reprimanded Putin . telling him ,that to be Polite with the west will not calm their thirst for Russian blood..  then you have Prime Minister of Austria lecturing Putin ,that Russia is a Super power.. telling him in diplomatic ways that he is wrong... So things have gone to the point of Embarrassing to see how Putin being lectured ,again and again ,to stop being weak.   The pivot to Asia ,this will not work mr Putin either or ending the use of dollars will neither end the American empire. This is because the American Empire is an Empire of Influence.And unless Russia becomes a more developed nation ,and competes with US top influential business in the world ,then Putin is doing nothing.  Because it does not counter the main weapon Americans have.. that is LEADERSHIP. and Influence..Americans advertise well their Power and leadership..  What Putin advertise is Russia being a second rate power.. with a strong military and an obsolete culture. That is focused in the past glories of Russia. Putin could even Nationalize the central Bank of Russia and he himself take control of it ..and this will not solve the problem of Russia.

    and What is the main Problem of Russia?
    Is a leadership problem ,an influence problem. Nobody in the west respect or listen Russia , how many times Lavrov and Putin have said this ? What they dont say is that Russia government is the one to blame for this.
    Respect is something that will not be given for free to Russia.. Russia needs to earn it.. and Americans and Europeans only respect Leadership ,and Influence. If Russia wants to defeat the American empire ,it needs to defeat US Top popular business with much better ones.. IF Russia produced a super PC computer ,for personal civilian use ,that beats Intel and AMD big time, and start selling it with an alternative to Microsoft software.. it will sink American economy by 30% , when Intel ,AMD and Microsoft shares collapse.. after Russia building better technology. And Russia develops a new Internet. this will panic Google ,and all IT Giants in America.. this is how you defeat an Empire and in an elegant fair way.. without firing a bullet, Russia can destroy United states.
    it only Putin a total change of tactics.. from Populism and soviets parades , to an IT revolution . How powerful is Americans (and Japanese) business that they literary change the culture of those nations..that is Powerful INFLUENCE in action. Russia needs a high tech business Revolution , that totally defeats or at least competes with the American top popular business. and Russia have plenty of talent to do it.. locally ,with their scientist and with China help..  If I was Putin ,i will announce a new Internet in collaboration with CHina and India ,that connects all ASIA and offering them the option to control ,the information they want to accept or not .. This will end the Monopoly of US and their spying on internet too.. . thats going to give nightmares to Americans business ,knowing that Russia is for first time , doing something that can seriously damage their nation Leadership ,influence in the world. targeting the base of what holds the American Empire influence over the world ,that is their Leading innovative business that leads the world into the future. and then also if i was Putin ,will cut all funding to sports , privatize it totally.. and privatize Gazprom to Europe , and then with the money earned , start a new space race to beat Americans..

    This is the reason why Americans and Soviets , had a space race.. both nations understood very well ,how important is leadership and influence , to be seen as leaders in the world. since developed nations follows leaders and not second best or losers.. Soviets problems was not having control of their arms race, and over spending..
    Russia under Putin ,he have zero understanding of what is Leadership and how Russia poor influence in the world is what makes ,the west attack Russia. Everyone can be influenced.. everyone can be.. Russia only needs to influence the west with the things they Respect and they like. .Americans and Europeans love space.. why the fuck Putin dont invest more in Space instead of reducing the budget in half? No The west love Entertainment and movies and modern music..is their bread of everyday. Russia is fighting Americans in the most retarded way possible.. or close to it..

    And if Russia was landing in the moon today ,creating a moon base, while americans still not even have a rocket to go to the ISS.. it will have the entire world celebrating Russia achievement not just 2 weeks like olympics.. but forever.. ever people attentions will be there in Russia leadership in Space. , ending any plans of US and UK to isolate Russia ,if everyone else in the world wants to be closer to Russia. This is why i dont see nationalizing Russian central bank as a good idea.. this will be equivalent to disconnecting Russia from europe. Whether people like Liberal Europe values or not.. Europe is the faction Russia needs to influence to put an end NATO and American controls over them.

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    Neutrality

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Neutrality on Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:10 pm

    Vann, you seriously need to chill. I don't bother reading the giant TL;DR wall anymore. Please lwrite shorter paragrahps and come to the point.

    Otherwise I'm putting you on ignore.
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:19 pm

    Neutrality wrote:
    If we take a look at the international level then Germany would be the best example. Heiko Maas has proposed to create a European banking/payment system that will be independent from the American and thus unaffected by American regulation.


    Well looks like after 63 years under US occupation Germany has its change to get free...I would'n be wise not to follow it



    I keep wondering about the following: if you ban one of the biggest economies in the world from using your product (dollar), aren't you basically shooting yourself in the foot by removing a customer?

    indeed arrogance of power I guess. In US there are surely bright analysts but no brain damaged politicians want to listen to them. They are exclusuve and omnipotent.  Yes the whole finctial world since 1945 was built around USD.  Nevertheless wall is cranking but the more US politician shake the more cracks pops up there...


    Ihave read an interview with Song Hongbing (currency wars) about Russia/China and challenging US dollar dominance. I remember one thing: Russia/China have to build a parallel financial world   gradually. Then switch. Otherwise dumping US bonds (China) and switchign crude reveues (Russia) might end up worse for them than for US.


    Then I've checked:
    China for years is building Reminbi parallel systems, Asian/BRICS bank, CIPS (funder 2015) has even syntax of SWIFT just in case, futures for crude in reminbi... Russia is switching national currencies and now even has to consider it fo crude for Rubles...

    step by step...


    =======================
    That's nice instead on off-shore they will be "asked" to invest in infrastructure in Russia. They cannot transfer ports or rasd to offshore afterwards... sweet

    Companies from the list of Belousov presented projects for ₽6 trillion


    According to Andrei Belousov, we are talking about projects for 6 trillion rubles. "This one is a multiplier of 6 trillion rubles. for 500 billion rubles., In my opinion, not bad ", - said the presidential aide
    Подробнее на РБК:
    https://www.rbc.ru/business/06/09/2018/5b9185ed9a79470cf93454ea





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    Neutrality

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Neutrality on Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:50 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    Well looks like after 63 years under US occupation Germany has its change to get free...I would'n be wise not to follow it

    Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this the first time in history, after 1945, that Germany is openly opposing American meddling in their business? This is the first time we're witnessing this AFAIK.


    indeed arrogance of power I guess. In US there are surely bright analysts but no brain damaged politicians want to listen to them. They are exclusuve and omnipotent.  Yes the whole finctial world since 1945 was built around USD.  Nevertheless wall is cranking but the more US politician shake the more cracks pops up there...

    It seems that not everyone in the US administration is this arrogant and narrow minded. I remember Mnuchin not so long ago stating that sanctionning Russian state debt obligations could have a destabilizing effect in global finance.
    It could also be that populism has alot to do with it. They could yell about taking the most drastic measures but vote on something (much) less drastic in the end.


    Ihave read an interview with Song Hongbing (currency wars) about Russia/China and challenging US dollar dominance. I remember one thing: Russia/China have to build a parallel financial world   gradually. Then switch. Otherwise dumping US bonds (China) and switchign crude reveues (Russia) might end up worse for them than for US.


    Then I've checked:
    China for years is building Reminbi parallel systems, Asian/BRICS bank, CIPS (funder 2015) has even syntax of SWIFT just in case, futures for crude in reminbi... Russia is switching national currencies and now even has to consider it fo crude for Rubles...

    step by step...

    This is the general impression that I'm having. People who have a great interest in geopolitics can sense that there are tectonic shifts happening in the world. And that the American unipolar system is gradually fading away.
    These sanctions are slapped on every possible pretext. We have passed the Ukrainian/Crimean reasons a long time ago. Something that we cannot see is being done against American interest and I hope the day will come when we'll know.
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:59 am

    Neutrality wrote:
    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    Well looks like after 63 years under US occupation Germany has its change to get free...I would'n be wise not to follow it

    Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this the first time in history, after 1945, that Germany is openly opposing American meddling in their business? This is the first time we're witnessing this AFAIK.


    Germany has more than thousand years statehood tradition, it wont go away after 60 years of US occupation. Their demography and size wont send them to first league though but will give them pretty good position ins second one (Like Japan, Russia in coupe of years)






    It seems that not everyone in the US administration is this arrogant and narrow minded. I remember Mnuchin not so long ago stating that sanctionning Russian state debt obligations could have a destabilizing effect in global finance.
    It could also be that populism has alot to do with it. They could yell about taking the most drastic measures but vote on something (much) less drastic in the end.

    you know Mnuchin is an expert in economy but is obliged to do as he is told to do... Populism is run by media...media are run by tycoons...who is breeding minds of voters of Lindsey Graham? same people gave Trump no chances to settle stuff with Russia. Not because of Russia so much but because of Democrats loosing




    These sanctions are slapped on every possible pretext. We have passed the Ukrainian/Crimean reasons a long time ago. Something that we cannot see is being done against American interest and I hope the day will come when we'll know.

    C'mon reasons always have been the same: to Rule the world. What else are sanctions against country that dared to say stop? US could bomb Libya or Iraq, but with Russia would be not worh it lol1 lol1 lol1 so they hit with different components: finance, propaganda, internal subversive actions...

    If thy cannot destroy Russia so at least make her weak and technologically backward country. Especially that a new Kondratiev Wave is coming.
    So far so good though . I hope Russia will not only survive but als develops russia russia russia







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    Neutrality

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Neutrality on Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:48 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:

    C'mon reasons always have been the same: to Rule the world.  What else are sanctions against country that dared to say stop? US could bomb Libya or Iraq, but with Russia would be not worh it lol1 lol1 lol1  so they hit with different components: finance, propaganda, internal subversive actions...

    If thy cannot destroy Russia so at least make her weak and technologically backward country. Especially that a new Kondratiev Wave is coming.
    So far so good though .  I hope Russia will not only survive but als develops  russia  russia  russia


    They are also trying to humiliate Russia by ultimatums like letting in foreign chemical weapon specialists to make sure there are chem. weapons present Rolling Eyes . That kind of talk might scare Iraq or Libya but not a country like Russia.

    What's the Kondratiev Wave?
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:58 pm

    Neutrality wrote:

    They are also trying to humiliate Russia by ultimatums like letting in foreign chemical weapon specialists to make sure there are chem. weapons present Rolling Eyes . That kind of talk might scare Iraq or Libya but not a country like Russia.

    Technically Libya and Iraq didn't step down. They were destroyed with hundrets of thousandsif not missions killed. I meant democracy values restored.



    What's the Kondratiev Wave?

    again those Russians lol1 lol1 lol1 a hypothesis proposing that economical/technological progress goes in waves/cycles. Last wave was about microelectronics/telcos for example

    next?who knows Smile nanotech? AI? gen-tech?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:52 am

    Spatial strategy will give the economy 50 trillion rubles to 2035
    The locomotive of the country's development will be transport projects - roads, ports and inland waterways


    https://iz.ru/787506/tatiana-gladysheva-inna-grigoreva/prostranstvennaia-strategiia-dast-ekonomike-50-trln-rublei-do-2035-goda

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:34 pm

    Manturov: a large Russian gas turbine should be ready by 2021
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    The project to create a 110 MW gas turbine in Russia is currently being carried out by the United Engine-Building Corporation with partners

    VLADIVOSTOK, September 12th. / TASS /. The Russian large-capacity gas turbine should be ready by 2021, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov told the TASS at the Eastern Economic Forum.

    "We have a task by 2021 to do this, therefore (term) three years", - he said, answering the question, by what time in Russia should be created own gas turbine of high power.

    The project to create a 110 MW gas turbine in Russia is currently being carried out by the United Engine-Building Corporation (UDC, Rostekh) with partners. In December 2017, the tests of the car were stopped because of an accident, it is expected that the tests will resume in 2019. Another project to build turbines with a capacity of 65 MW and 170 MW is planned to be realized by the company "Power Machines".
    At the same time, "Power Machines" can participate in the project of the JDC, Manturov did not rule out. "As for 110 MW, we need to complete all the work related to the elimination of those problems, the so-called childhood diseases that were identified at the Ivanovo PGK (during the tests - TASS comment) .Then we will see the final, qualitative result, taking into account all the improvements By the way, Power Machines, as a consultant, also joined this work, because they will be in cooperation, perhaps, really participate in the creation of this turbine, "he said.

    Projects of Power Machines and UDC
    Earlier it was reported that "Power Machines" in 2019 are hoping to receive 3 billion rubles. in the framework of state financing for a project to develop and produce a line of domestic gas turbines with a capacity of 65 MW and 170 MW. Manturov said that the main part of the project will be taken over by the company. "Previously, yes, 7 billion is co-financing (from the budget - TASS comment), and the whole project will naturally cost twice as much, because the main part will be taken by Power Machines," Manturov said.

    In Russia there is as yet no production of large-capacity gas turbines. Work on this has been going on for many years, since 2013 Rostekh and Rosnano have intensified this process, but in December 2017, the GTD-110M turbine tests were stopped due to failure of a number of mechanisms. Initially, it was planned to complete the testing of the turbine by the middle of 2018 and this year to launch the product into batch production. Rostekh CEO Sergei Chemezov noted TASS that the project's implementation has not been stopped and the tests will resume in 2019.

    https://tass.ru/vef-2018/articles/5556507
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:13 pm

    Gazprom and Japanese Mitsui agreed to build a LNG plant in the Leningrad region



    Gazprom and Mitsui reached an agreement on cooperation in the Baltic LNG project, within which a liquefied gas plant in the port of Ust-Luga will be built in the Leningrad region. The plant's capacity is 10 million tons of LNG per year with the possibility of expanding to 15 million tons per year. This was announced within the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum.

    https://www.finam.ru/analysis/newsitem/gazprom-i-yaponskaya-mitsui-dogovorilis-o-stroitelstve-zavoda-spg-v-lenoblasti-20180912-092657/
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    Neutrality

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Neutrality on Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:37 pm

    https://www.ft.com/content/7358f396-b66d-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe


    In his last “State of the Union” speech to MEPs in Strasbourg on Wednesday, the president of the European Commission said it was an “aberration” that the EU paid for more than 80 per cent of its energy imports in US dollars despite only 2 per cent of imports coming from the US. Most of the dollar-denominated imports are from Russia and the Gulf states.


    “We will have to change that. The euro must become the active instrument of a new sovereign Europe”, said Mr Juncker, whose five-year tenure as commission president is due to end next year.

    Well the Europeans aren't fucking around either. A few days ago I mentioed Germany's foreign minister talking about exactly this. Now his and his French colleague's idea is getting support on the EU level.
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:10 pm

    Neutrality wrote:


    “We will have to change that. The euro must become the active instrument of a new sovereign Europe”, said Mr Juncker, whose five-year tenure as commission president is due to end next year.

    Well the Europeans aren't fucking around either. A few days ago I mentioed Germany's foreign minister talking about exactly this. Now his and his French colleague's idea is getting support on the EU level.

    me thinks before Juncker said anything it was agreed with relevant parties before. He just voiced officially the strategy or official "testing water" what resonance such a decision could make. . What is good of course
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Hole on Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:23 pm

    It´s really ridiculous. The euro is around for nearly 18 years and Germany is still buying oil with Dollars and selling machines and so on... in Dollars! Every contract with foreign countries should be made in euros.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:39 am

    Manturov: a large Russian gas turbine should be ready by 2021
    SHARE
    The project to create a 110 MW gas turbine in Russia is currently being carried out by the United Engine-Building Corporation with partners

    VLADIVOSTOK, September 12th. / TASS /. The Russian large-capacity gas turbine should be ready by 2021, the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov told the TASS at the Eastern Economic Forum.

    "We have a task by 2021 to do this, therefore (term) three years", - he said, answering the question, by what time in Russia should be created own gas turbine of high power.

    The project to create a 110 MW gas turbine in Russia is currently being carried out by the United Engine-Building Corporation (UDC, Rostekh) with partners. In December 2017, the tests of the car were stopped because of an accident, it is expected that the tests will resume in 2019. Another project to build turbines with a capacity of 65 MW and 170 MW is planned to be realized by the company "Power Machines".
    At the same time, "Power Machines" can participate in the project of the JDC, Manturov did not rule out. "As for 110 MW, we need to complete all the work related to the elimination of those problems, the so-called childhood diseases that were identified at the Ivanovo PGK (during the tests - TASS comment) .Then we will see the final, qualitative result, taking into account all the improvements By the way, Power Machines, as a consultant, also joined this work, because they will be in cooperation, perhaps, really participate in the creation of this turbine, "he said.

    Projects of Power Machines and UDC
    Earlier it was reported that "Power Machines" in 2019 are hoping to receive 3 billion rubles. in the framework of state financing for a project to develop and produce a line of domestic gas turbines with a capacity of 65 MW and 170 MW. Manturov said that the main part of the project will be taken over by the company. "Previously, yes, 7 billion is co-financing (from the budget - TASS comment), and the whole project will naturally cost twice as much, because the main part will be taken by Power Machines," Manturov said.

    In Russia there is as yet no production of large-capacity gas turbines. Work on this has been going on for many years, since 2013 Rostekh and Rosnano have intensified this process, but in December 2017, the GTD-110M turbine tests were stopped due to failure of a number of mechanisms. Initially, it was planned to complete the testing of the turbine by the middle of 2018 and this year to launch the product into batch production. Rostekh CEO Sergei Chemezov noted TASS that the project's implementation has not been stopped and the tests will resume in 2019.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:31 am

    Gundlach: U.S. Economy and Stocks Could Be “Burnt Out”

    Stimulative measures drive growth, and the U.S. economy and stock market have benefited from quantitative easing, lower rates, less regulation and tax cuts. But Jeffrey Gundlach admonished investors that too much stimulus can backfire.

    Gundlach is the founder and chief investment officer of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital. He spoke via a webcast with investors on September 11. His talk was titled, “Miracle Grow,” and the focus was on his firm’s flagship mutual fund, the DoubleLine Total Return Fund (DBLTX). The slides from his presentation are available here.

    Gundlach, an amateur gardener, said that he often uses Miracle Grow fertilizer to help his plants.

    “But if you dump Miracle Grow on plants long enough it burns them out,” he said.

    The growth of the deficit has been disconcerting. The deficit growth has been at levels that have historically been used to counter recessions, even though we have been in a nine-year-long period of growth.

    The U.S. total debt outstanding and the total S&P return have moved up in tandem.

    That has been “miracle growth,” he said.

    What’s going to happen when the next recession happens? The deficit could “explode,” Gundlach said.

    Let’s look at what Gundlach said the future holds for the U.S. economy and stock and bond markets.

    A recession ahead?

    Tax cuts, deficits and debt have been responsible for the surges in U.S. growth – as are the threats of tariffs, which accelerated growth forward, according to Gundlach. Real GDP growth, he said, is at 2.9% and may be as high as 3.8% for Q3. Nominal GDP has accelerated as a result of higher inflation.

    The last time nominal GDP grew at this rate was in 2004, which led to Fed rate hikes.

    Is there trouble ahead? The year-over-year leading economic indicators (LEIs) are growing at 6.9%, matching the level at their peak in 2012-2013. “It’s very likely they will turn negatives,” and there is “no sign of a recession,” he said.

    Sentiment surveys are “off the charts” and “have never been higher,” he said. This is the result of decreased regulation, according to Gundlach.

    The PMI surveys are extremely strong (manufacturing is at 61.3 and at its highest level in 20 years). This, he said, is the result of “extraordinary” dovish central bank policies from the Fed and other central banks.

    But the Fed is now in quantitative tightening (QT) mode. “We’ll see what happens as $60 billion/month of debt is retired, starting in October.”

    There are also trillions of corporate maturities in the next five years, both in the U.S. and globally, according to Gundlach. Along with QT, that will lead to a lot of “interesting things” as all that debt needs to be re-floated, he said.

    As debt has grown, it hasn’t been reinvested smartly, he said. Net government investment hasn’t grown. One of the positive things is that government capital spending has grown faster than consumption when compared to prior years, according to Gundlach.

    Among households, student and auto loan debt has grown at alarming rates, he said. Millennials have been trapped into “lifelong debt problems” as aresult of tuition increases, he said, which have been fueled by debt accessibility.

    Home prices are up and home affordability is down, he said, so there has been a slump in housing growth. More than two-thirds of sentiment-survey respondents have said that it is not a good time to buy a home.

    Countering Trump’s rhetoric

    Gundlach generally stays out of politics in his webcasts. But this time he refuted some of President Trump’s claims.

    This is not the “greatest jobs economy of all time,” Gundlach said, contrary to Trump’s claims. Wages growth has not kept up with inflation, except briefly in 2017, according to Gundlach. Wage growth is slowing down, according to data from the Atlantic Fed. Real average earnings growth is negative, with the CPI at 2.95%.

    “It’s inflation that’s growing,” Gundlach said.

    For the first 20 months of the Trump presidency, there have been 190,000 of new jobs per month. But under the last 20 months of Obama’s tenure, there were 211,000. Not only is this not the greatest jobs economy of all time, it is actually slightly worse than Obama’s presidency, and both periods were late-cycle in the economy, Gundlach said.

    Since 1939, despite the huge increase in the population, there were “many, many” times when job growth was vastly higher than under Trump’s presidency, Gundlach said. But, Gundlach acknowledged, a lot of that historical growth happened when demographics were much more favorable than it is now.

    The response to the next recession will be some form of universal basic income (UBI), he said. Gundlach cited a program like this in Sweden and noted the recent calls for UBI among socialist Democrats.

    The miracle growth markets

    Miracle Growth has been thrown at the markets, Gundlach said. As global central banks have pursued aggressively dovish policies, foreign stock market returns have responded in a similar way to those in the U.S.

    But global stock markets are down this year, with some real “disasters” in the emerging markets, he said, due to the trade war.

    “One of the things we will remember most about 2018 is that incredible divergence between the U.S. and global stock market returns,” Gundlach said.

    Inflation has been picking up in the U.S. and internationally. Across the globe, 80% of countries have had rising inflation during the last three months. “We can clearly see that inflation has bottomed out and is heading higher,” Gundlach said. Both goods and services prices have been rising over that period.

    We are not having problems getting inflation to the 2% level, according to Gundlach. There is good reason to believe the core CPI will go higher, according to DoubleLine’s proprietary models, the New York Fed’s Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG) and the ISM PMI (which also is a leading indicator of inflation). Money growth (M2) supply also suggests a move above 3% for inflation, according to Gundlach.

    A suicide mission

    “It’s bad enough that deficits are increasing this late in the cycle, but we are increasing taxes and raising interest rates,” Gundlach lamented. It is a “suicide mission,” as Gundlach had called it in a previous webcast. If rates are hundred basis points higher, with $7 trillion of debt, there will be $140 billion of additional interest costs, according to Gundlach.

    “This will put further pressure on the deficit and create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher debt and higher rates,” he said.

    The Treasury could get overwhelmed by a “supply fear” that could lead to much higher inflation, with a tough economy and rising rates, Gundlach warned. “That would be the gateway to universal basic income. Americans would think they were getting something, but it would really be a devaluation of the dollar.”

    The dollar’s next big move will be down and it will be lower than it is now by year end, he said. It has recently weakened versus the euro. That will help non-U.S. stock markets. But the dollar has strengthened relative to emerging markets, which has hurt those stock markets.

    “The market is telling us the trade war is very bad for emerging markets, especially those with dollar-denominated debt,” Gundlach said.

    But, he said, President Trump wants the dollar to be weaker and wants the Fed’s help to make this happen.

    U.S. valuations, according to the CAPE ratio, are near 1929-levels. Emerging markets are at half the levels of the U.S., based on the CAPE ratio. It’s really hard to believe that equity markets will hold up. If it gets worse in the emerging markets, then it “has to be a global situation.”

    That will happen if the dollar weakens.

    Advice to investors


    Since May, global markets are down 10% and the U.S. is up 7%. Emerging markets are down 20% over that period, which “looks like a bear market,” Gundlach said. But he does not expect this divergence to continue.

    Commodities are at historically cheap levels, but are not going lower, according to Gundlach. “They are a late-cycle play and highly volatile” and they should “stay in the portfolio,” he said.

    Gold, at approximately $1,200 per ounce, will increase in price as the dollar weakens. It is a “really good buy” at its current price and has “exhausted its downside,” Gundlach said.

    The U.S. 10-year yield (at 2.97%) has been remarkably stable over the last several months. But if nominal GDP growth or the German 10-year yield moves higher – the two have historically been closely tied to U.S. 10-year rates – then it would lead to higher rates. But Gundlach said he does not have high conviction about the future direction of rates.

    There is an extremely large speculative position against the Treasury market. Gundlach said that if rates head down, even a little, it could lead to a “stampede” and possibly to a 10-year rate as low as 2.25%. He called this scenario “conjectural” but not impossible.

    The 30-year yield (at 3.12%) is nearing the 3.22% level, which Gundlach has previously cited as a threshold that would lead to higher rates, provided there are two consecutive closes above that rate.

    Across sectors of the bond market, Gundlach said he is not a big fan of corporate bonds, which are two standard deviations rich, according to the DoubleLine models. Junk bonds are “very highly valued,” he said, but not in imminent danger. Corporate-debt-to-GDP is “horrifically” high, he said, and is inconsistent with tight option-adjusted spreads. Corporate bond yields are also suffering from historically high levels of supply.

    With convertible bonds, investors are “basically owning stocks” he said. They are more of an equity investment.

    Non-agency mortgage-backed (MBS) securities and floating rate bonds are his favored bond sectors.

    Don’t buy Chinese stocks, he said. The financial problems there are “scary” and investors are better off in other Asian markets.

    The S&P 500 will end the year modestly lower, he said.

    “You want to be globally diversified,” Gundlach said. The U.S. market is sensitive to “just a few stocks.” If you want to increase beta, invest outside the U.S.

    “I would not invest in e-commerce stocks,” Gundlach said.

    “I would rather sleep at night.”
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    Nibiru

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Nibiru on Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:11 pm

    Is there a chance in the near future that the Russian ruble could become a viable reserve currency?



    Sell the dollar, buy the ruble – Russia’s economy ministry suggests

    The recent collapse of the Russian ruble is a good opportunity to buy the undervalued currency, Economic Development Minister Maksim Oreshkin said on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.

    Oreshkin’s advice to Russians is to sell the US dollar and buy the Russian ruble. Since July, the ruble has depreciated by 12 percent against the greenback.

    “You know the famous quote from Warren Buffett: ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.’ When everything is good and everyone is bullish about something, it means, on the contrary, that this asset has little prospects,” Oreshkin told Business FM radio.

    In its macroeconomic forecast, the ministry of economic development expects the ruble to cost around 64 per dollar, or about 10 percent stronger from the current level, next year despite the recent sell-off. Oreshkin has confirmed that in the medium term, the exchange rate is expected to strengthen to 63-64 rubles.

    On Monday, the ruble collapsed to its lowest against major currencies in 2.5 years on the Moscow stock exchange, trading at 70.34 rubles against the dollar, and 81.67 rubles against the euro.

    The key reasons are the US sanctions, which could be strengthened in the near future, and weakening emerging market currencies in Turkey, Argentina, South Africa, India, and other developing economies.

    In addition to that, the ruble is a free-floated currency, which means the Russian central bank doesn’t burn through the country’s reserves to prop it up in times of market turbulence.

    https://www.rt.com/business/438171-sell-dollar-buy-ruble/

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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:31 pm

    No. Not enough countries would trade in it. If lets say Russia demanded that they get only Rubles for their oil and gas, then it will end up becoming rather strong currency - something Russia doesn't want necessarily. Strong currency would mean more expensive to do production and development at home. Instead, they are aiming more at Yuan and Euro currently.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:03 pm

    https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/112000/

    On the sidelines of the WEF-2018 was signed 175 agreements worth 2.9 trillion rubles

    On the sidelines of the Eastern economic forum in Vladivostok was signed 175 agreements worth 2.9 trillion rubles.
    One of the most important agreements was the delivery to "Aeroflot" 100 aircraft SSJ-100, investment Asian investment Fund Generations Fund projects in the far East of the Russian agricultural holding Rusagro, construction of terminal for handling LNG company "NOVATEK" in the Bay Bichevinka on the Kamchatka Peninsula, and the establishment of mining and industrial enterprises on the basis of Baskoy ore zones in Chukotka, writes TASS.

    This year the forum was visited by more than 6 thousand delegates and 1.3 thousand journalists. In the framework of VEF was about 100 business events.

    The most numerous delegations [at the WEF], China (1 thousand 96 persons), Japan (570), South Korea (335), North Korea was represented by 12 people. The forum was attended by more than 340 of the heads of foreign companies, 383 — Russian.

    Last year at the forum were signed agreements worth 2.5 trillion rubles, and the forum was visited by 5 thousand delegates.
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:13 am

    miketheterrible wrote:No.  Not enough countries would trade in it.  If lets say Russia demanded that they get only Rubles for their oil and gas, then it will end up becoming rather strong currency - something Russia doesn't want necessarily.  Strong currency would mean more expensive to do production and development at home.  Instead, they are aiming more at Yuan and Euro currently.


    and that's the right approach to me. With time perhaps they can make Rubles parity in gold. But after economy got storn enough.


    In the offshore on the island of Russian appeared the first resident


    During the days of the Eastern Economic Forum in the special administrative region (SAR) on Russky Island in Vladivostok, the first resident was registered. This is reported by RIA Novosti with reference to the head of the Corporation for the Development of the Far East Denis Tikhonov.

    They became the company "Finwig Holdings", the sole beneficiary of which is Artem Avetisyan. The company, which is the main shareholder of Vostochny Bank, the main bank in the Far East, was previously under the jurisdiction of Cyprus. According to Tikhonov, this suggests that Russia has created comfortable conditions for the return of capital. The SAR regime, which was created specifically for the return of foreign capital that had left abroad, also attracted interest from several other companies.

    https://rg.ru/2018/09/13/reg-dfo/v-ofshore-na-ostrove-russkij-poiavilsia-pervyj-rezident.html


    Trade turnover between Russia and China to grow to $100 bln in 2018 — Putin

    Vladimir Putin expects that the volume of trade turnover between Russia and China in 2018 will reach $100 bln

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/1020940



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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:39 am

    So by November, all Russian banks may be sanctioned. Dunno how US sanctions would affect MiC since they already have full sanctions against Russian military industry as a whole. But this about the banks is where it will get interesting.

    So that would mean Russia would then have to move entirely USD free. Meaning all people within Russia won't be able to trade in USD. So they will have to obtain other currency.  Short term, this will hurt the banks of Russia. But they should have been prepared for this long ago. Judging by VTB bank CEO, they figured this was going to happen.

    So what is the next plan for them? I know what they can do but that ends up taking time. It would be total renegotiation of all agreements/deals.

    https://m.ren.tv/novosti/2018-09-14/glava-vtb-nazval-usloviya-dlya-otkaza-rossii-ot-dollarov
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    dino00

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  dino00 on Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:33 am

    Russian Federal Budget Surplus In January-August Totaled $28.3Bln - Finance Ministry

    The surplus of Russia's federal budget in January-August totaled 1.962 trillion rubles ($28.35 billion), according to a preliminary assessment, the Russian Finance Ministry said Wednesday.

    The surplus amounted to 3.1 percent of GDP, the ministry said.

    https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/russian-federal-budget-surplus-in-january-aug-430790.html
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:26 pm

    Borisov announces signing of memorandums on the gas pipeline from Iran to India


    MOSCOW, September 14 (Itar-Tass) - RIA Novosti. Intergovernmental memorandums on the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline with the participation of the Russian side are being prepared for signing, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov told reporters after the meeting of the Russian-Indian intergovernmental commission.

    "This project requires the signing of relevant intergovernmental memorandums, work is going on in this direction, I think they will be signed in the near future." This will form the basis for the practical implementation of this project, "he said.
    In 2017, Gazprom signed a memorandum with Iran on the possibility of participating in the development of four fields. As possible options for gas monetization, Gazprom is considering the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project, as well as the LNG-Iran LNG plant.



    РИА Новости https://ria.ru/economy/20180914/1528580762.html




    Gazprom Neft will accelerate the return on investment in projects with Mubadala in Siberia


    Earlier, Gazprom Neft, Mubadala Petroleum and the Russian Direct Investment Fund announced the closure of the deal and the establishment of a joint venture based on Gazpromneft-East,


    MOSCOW, September 14. / TASS /. Completion of the transaction to increase the share of Mubadala Petroleum in Gazprom Neft-East to 49% will speed up the return on investment in joint projects in Western Siberia, said Deputy Head of Gazprom Neft Vadim Yakovlev.

    "We can talk about a new stage in the development of the enterprise.The tasks that were at the previous stage are involving the development of the main part of traditional reserves and the creation of a gas infrastructure.This is basically done, and the partner's involvement now allows us to accelerate the return of those investments that we For our partner, this is an opportunity to immediately get a return on their investment, because the asset generates a positive cash flow, "Yakovlev said.

    On September 5, 2018, Gazprom Neft, Mubadala Petroleum and the Russian Direct Investment Fund announced the closure of the deal and the establishment of a joint venture based on Gazpromneft-East. As a result of the transaction, Gazprom Neft owns 51% of the joint venture, Mubadala Petroleum and RFPI - 44% and 5% respectively. Gazpromneft-Vostok remains a subsidiary of Gazprom Neft and will continue to act as operator of the fields.

    Complex geological reserves in Russia are attractive for Arab partners, since they allow to have a stable profitability in a difficult price situation, explained Yakovlev.

    https://tass.ru/ekonomika/5565577
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:04 am

    miketheterrible wrote:So by November, all Russian banks may be sanctioned. Dunno how US sanctions would affect MiC since they already have full sanctions against Russian military industry as a whole. But this about the banks is where it will get interesting.

    Dedolariaation IMHO wont hurt SU so much as helps Russia. But Russia success implementation of $less world can make the difference with other countries.




    "The first is an accelerated transition to settlements without dollars"

    VTB

    The plan to abandon the US currency includes at least three large-scale items: switching to settlement in other units for export-import operations, transferring holdings to Russian jurisdiction and creating a Russian depository to place eurobonds. This is the head of VTB Andrei Kostin told IIC "Izvestia" on the margins of the Eastern Economic Forum (WEF).


    VTB Chairman asked Putin to support dedollarization
    - Tell us about the plan for dedollarization.

    - There are a number of directions.

    The first is an accelerated transition in settlements with foreign countries for export-import transactions to other currencies-this may be the euro, the yuan or the ruble.

    The second is the translation of legal addresses of the largest Russian holdings in our jurisdiction. According to colleagues who got into April sanctions (on April 6, the US imposed restrictive measures against 26 Russians and 15 Russian companies - Izvestia) to the same Rusal, we realized that registration abroad complicates the fulfillment of further tasks.

    Third, we propose to maximally transfer the placement of Eurobonds to the Russian site, to withdraw from the primary depository in the form of Euroclear (an international depository clearing center that serves the OTC international stock market - Izvestiya) and switch to the Russian one. The fourth point: we proposed to license all participants of the stock market in such a way that they all worked under the same rules.

    https://iz.ru/788630/daria-inozemtceva-ekaterina-korinenko/pervoe-uskorennyi-perekhod-na-raschety-bez-dollarov?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop





    The Bank of Russia will continue the policy of dedollarization


    MOSCOW, September 14 (Itar-Tass) - RIA Novosti. The Bank of Russia is already pursuing a policy of dedollarization and will continue it, said the Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina.

    "As for proposals on dedollarization, I saw it in the press, I did not see detailed proposals, we will certainly see them all." I support the direction of increasing payments in the national currency, certainly, it should go, according to economic expediency, with interests of our exporting companies, but nevertheless this is already happening, and, of course, this is a promising direction, "Nabiullina said at a press conference following the results of the board of directors.

    "Undoubtedly, we support, in principle, the policy of dedollarization, and not only we support it, but we carry it out." In recent years, the level of dollarization of banks' balances ... is declining, and we will continue this policy, "she said.



    РИА Новости https://ria.ru/economy/20180914/1528588586.html







    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:48 am

    Russia learned most from 2008 financial crisis – European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

    https://www.rt.com/business/438440-russia-lehman-lessons-ebrd/

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:53 am

    India-Russia set $ 50 billion trade target for 2025


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

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