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    Russian Economy General News: #8

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    Post  kvs on Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:50 pm

    Austin wrote:US Treasury has promised rapid sanctions against Russia
    VedomostiFebruary 14, 21:26  
    Listen to this material
     

    The administration of US President Donald Trump is working on new sanctions against Russia. This was stated by the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin at the hearings in the Senate.

    Sanctions should be expected in the near future, said Mnuchin. He did not specify anything more.

    In late January, Mnuchin had already promised new sanctions. This happened after the publication of the so-called "Kremlin report". This is a list of Russian officials and businessmen whom the US considers close to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the public report of only 210 people. The entry in this list is not subject to any restrictions or sanctions. However, some billionaires have already complained about the negative impact of the report.

    Posturing BS. You Yankee retards failed to damage Russia's economy with the previous rounds, but expect to succeed this time around.
    As one famous scientist said once: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.

    The collective IQ of the US government is around 65.
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    Post  ZoA on Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:40 pm

    Austin wrote:US Treasury has promised rapid sanctions against Russia
    VedomostiFebruary 14, 21:26  
    Listen to this material
     

    The administration of US President Donald Trump is working on new sanctions against Russia. This was stated by the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin at the hearings in the Senate.

    Sanctions should be expected in the near future, said Mnuchin. He did not specify anything more.

    In late January, Mnuchin had already promised new sanctions. This happened after the publication of the so-called "Kremlin report". This is a list of Russian officials and businessmen whom the US considers close to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the public report of only 210 people. The entry in this list is not subject to any restrictions or sanctions. However, some billionaires have already complained about the negative impact of the report.

    If one needs evidence Trump is Putin's poppet this is it Laughing

    It is absolutely incredible how US oligarchy is so oblivious those "sanctions" are extremely beneficial for Russia, and especially for Russia's siloviki faction as it directly hits their liberal and globalist opposition. One of the biggest problems of Russia is capital outflow out of Russia to US, EU and associated tax heavens. Russia should have long time ago imposed capital control regime to prevent this capital outflow, however due to interest of liberal globalist faction within Russian government there was no real possibility to impose such controls.

    But then EU and US came to the rescue by stupidly targeting that same liberal globalist faction and their property. First round of this self defeating cretinism came from EU that stupidly looted Russian oligarch's deposits from Cyprious banks, Next US and UK started to target Russian liberal oligarchs an their property in UK ind US. Consequently Russian liberal oligarchs increasingly started to view EU and US as unreliable place to deposit their ill gotten loot, motivating them to leave their capital in the Russia.

    Beneficial consequences were immediately obvious back in 2014 when Putin mentioned in one interview that following imposition of "sanctions" Russia, for the first time in half a decade,  had  net positive capital inflow in the the country, obviously caused by fear of Russian globalist faction that their capital might get looted by US and EU if they leave it within their reach. Just last year Putin was deliberately stoking those fears by publicly "warning" Russian oligarchs their property might be targeted by new US "sanctions".

    Now benefits of those sanctions are visible across Russia. Most notable is that despite utterly disastrous monetary policy of RCB Russia was able to maintain full employment and stable economy. This was largely the consequence of oligarchs investing their capital in Russia industry and manufacturing instead of dumping it to US, EU, or offshore havens that might be targeted by US or EU.

    In addition of already mentioned 2 benefits of "sanctions" in reducing strength of Russia's globalist liberal oligarchy and discouraging capital outflows out of Russia, there is also 3th benefit of forcing that liberal oligarchy to increasingly abandon their globalist habits and beliefs. I think this is best illustrated by this post made by PapaDragon:

    http://www.russiadefence.net/t347p75-education-in-russia-news#216088

    In article he liked there is large number of very interesting information. like that during last few yeas number of Russian oligarch children attending UK elite schools has drooped by half, that even most prominent liberal oligarchs like German Gref are investing their money in Russia, in this case in elite private school, and that even such liberal globalist expect that Russian elite will increasingly educate their children in Russia instead of abroad. And this is just a small illustration in one small area, such as education,  of actually much wider phenomena  of how those sanctions are in fact extremely beneficial for Russia.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:53 pm

    Somewhere in Russia some oligarches is building some kind of University with all the bells and whistles.while I think they are assholes, at least the money will stay inside.
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    Post  kvs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:02 am

    miketheterrible wrote:Somewhere in Russia some oligarches is building some kind of University with all the bells and whistles.while I think they are assholes, at least the money will stay inside.

    The trick is that all the big time rich donors around the planet are crooks or their families got the wealth by dirty means. Russians need
    to outgrow the Cold War propaganda about squeaky clean western capitalists. Capitalists behave as long as there is a strong, independent
    national government to bring them to heel.

    Of course, mom and pop grocery store owners do not fit the super rich category even if they fancy themselves as capitalists.
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    Post  Karl Haushofer on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:38 am

    Russia sharply increased its investment in US government bonds: https://lenta.ru/news/2018/02/16/us_rus/

    In 2017 Russian investments in US government bonds increased by 19%, to 102 billion dollars.

    Russia is playing with huge risks.
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    Post  kvs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:24 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Russia sharply increased its investment in US government bonds: https://lenta.ru/news/2018/02/16/us_rus/

    In 2017 Russian investments in US government bonds increased by 19%, to 102 billion dollars.

    Russia is playing with huge risks.

    Russia can afford the loss. The US can't afford the destruction of its image as a safe haven for money. This is Russia
    trolling Uncle Scumbag.
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    Post  kvs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:05 pm

    https://russia-insider.com/en/russias-clueless-central-bank-starving-economy-crazy-high-interest-rates/ri22545

    Last Friday the bank lowered its benchmark lending rate 25 basis points to 7.50%.

    And in a completely counter-intuitive turn of events, the ruble strengthened as a result.

    But what is so noteworthy is how commonplace that reaction from the ruble to a central bank rate cut is.

    It tells you just how starved the Russian economy is for its own currency. The ruble is supposed to drop on increased supply, which is what lower rates imply. When, in fact, the opposite occurred. Demand for the ruble rose to because borrowing costs were lower.

    This speaks to just how much the Bank of Russia’s policies are holding back what should be a much more robust expansion at this point.

    Overly tight interest rates are just as bad as overly accommodative rates. They both bias economic investment along the wrong points in the structure of production, by mis-pricing risk.

    The monetarist 5th column at the CBR needs to be shot.
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    Post  ZoA on Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:39 pm

    kvs wrote:

    The monetarist 5th column at the CBR needs to be shot.

    QFT
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    Post  Kimppis on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:09 pm

    That's very good article. RCB is not intentionally hurting the Russian economy. Those people just simply think that the economy is much "weaker" than it actually is. They believe in their own and Western neoliberal propaganda. IMO, even that wasn't absolutely clear before Q3 2017, but now it's undeniable. That slowdown shouldn't have happened.
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    Post  kvs on Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:30 pm

    The CBR is setting up Russia for inflationary instability. They have artificially driven the CPI below 3% which will result in delayed surge
    upward in the near future. Of course, if these clowns are still in charge they will use the inflation they generated as a pretext for more
    monetarist voodoo which will keep Russia from seeing proper growth and recovery.

    Putin needs to get his shit together and purge these slimebags. I would fully support him if he used dirty tricks to do it. For example,
    starting a campaign, via loyalists, to criticize the CBR and build up into a chorus of calls for house cleaning. He can't let some power
    balancing between oligarch factions allow this crap to continue. If there is some major faction that supports the CBR in its current policy,
    then they are traitors and need to be squashed. Putin has enough power to do this. He managed it back during his first term when he
    was in a much weaker position.

    If Putin fails to act, then he will have flushed his legacy down the toilet and given NATO a valuable gift. The worms at the CBR are directly
    impacting tax revenues and hence Russia's ability to retool its military. They are an existential national security threat.
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    Post  JohninMK on Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:35 pm

    Russia rubbing its hands with glee at this positive boost to its demographics. This is one of the really big hidden gains to Russia of the events in Ukraine. Like all the other countries in Europe, Russia is faced with an ageing population but unlike those in the EU, apart possibly from Poland which is in a similar situation to Russia, it has had the good fortune to have had millions of similar culture/same language immigrants walk over their border. The EU has had to accept alien culture/no language immigrants in an attempt to solve the same problem, which is leading to a disaster.

    Were the Ukrainian situation to be an attempt by the US to impact adversely on Russia this is one area that has seriously not gone to plan. Drinks all round in the Kremlin on the Maiden anniversary I'd say.

    Saturday, February 17, 2018 - 12:00

    About 1.7 million Ukrainian citizens have applied to Russia since 2014 for obtaining Russian citizenship, refugee status, temporary asylum. This was stated on Thursday by Russia's permanent representative to the OSCE, Alexander Lukashevich.

    "Since April 1, 2014, about 1 million 700 thousand Ukrainian citizens have applied to the relevant bodies of Russia for obtaining legal status - Russian citizenship, refugee status, temporary asylum, temporary residence permit, etc. Even more Ukrainians regularly travel to Russia for earnings. Authorities come up with propaganda labels like "an aggressor country," but people vote with their feet," Lukashevich said at a meeting of the OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna.

    The Russian diplomat recalled in this connection with the fact that the conflict in Donbass began with the punitive operation of Kiev against its own population, which brought untold suffering to the inhabitants of the region.

    "Many were forced to flee, including to Russia," the Permanent Representative said.

    According to him, attempts to expose Russia as a side of the intra-Ukrainian conflict are an integral part of the policy of sabotaging the Minsk agreements, prolonging the conflict, preserving a hotbed of tension on the borders of the European Union and Russia, and creating competitive advantages for extra-regional powers.

    "All this is done at the expense of the peoples of Ukraine," he added.

    DONi News Agency
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:12 pm

    kvs wrote:The government is already the primary buyer of military microprocessors.    So the only avenue left is civilian hardware.    
    The government cannot subsidize this since it destroys Russia's competitiveness.    The civilian sector is clearly an emerging
    new market for Russian CPUs.    These do-gooders want to f*ck it up.

    Russia politicians are grossly incompetent when conveying any message.   This whole discussion is because the language
    used by Medvedev is so obscure.  


    I am frightend by inability to deliver results by Dima M. and Dima R.  The fun is that Dima M. is talking as this was not HIS task to oversee and overlook this programme. There is very weak excuse if Dima say,oh when they fucked up.  So Dvorkovitch and Dima what were doing then? Nastia Rybka on yacht party?



    The Industrial Development Fund may reduce interest rates on loans to 3 - 4%

    MOSCOW, February 16. / TASS /. The Industrial Development Fund plans to reduce loan rates for enterprises from 5% to 3 - 4%. This was in an interview with Business FM, Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said.

    "We have already started moving in this direction, so reducing the rate to 4% or 3% as already the base for greater interest and motivation of entrepreneurs is definitely not far off, that is, in the coming year we will definitely drop [the rate]," he added that he did not undertake to say whether all programs would reduce.

    The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade recalled that this year the Industrial Development Fund launches a new program for developers in the field of the Internet of things (wireless technology that allows devices to transfer data to each other without human participation). Entrepreneurs will be able to get preferential loans at 1% per annum.

    The Industrial Development Fund was established in September 2014 to support enterprises by issuing loans at a minimum interest. Loans are provided on a competitive basis at a rate of 5% per annum for up to seven years in the amount of 50 million to 500 million rubles.


    Подробнее на ТАСС:
    http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4967729



    Gazprom buys 95% of the necessary products from Russian producers
    The head of the company Alexey Miller said that 100% of pipes are purchased in Russia

    http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4968461
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:23 pm

    [quote="JohninMK"
    Were the Ukrainian situation to be an attempt by the US to impact adversely on Russia this is one area that has seriously not gone to plan. Drinks all round in the Kremlin on the Maiden anniversary I'd say.

    Saturday, February 17, 2018 - 12:00

    About 1.7 million Ukrainian citizens have applied to Russia since 2014 for obtaining Russian citizenship, refugee status, temporary asylum. This was stated on Thursday by Russia's permanent representative to the OSCE, Alexander Lukashevich.


    DONi News Agency
    [/quote]

    Well + 2,5 mln in Crimea in not bad at all. Still Russia needs +/- mln yearly best educated people to boost its status and economy. Unless suddenly average Russian fertility gets close to Nigerian one.
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    Post  kvs on Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:33 pm

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:


    The Industrial Development Fund may reduce interest rates on loans to 3 - 4%

    MOSCOW, February 16. / TASS /. The Industrial Development Fund plans to reduce loan rates for enterprises from 5% to 3 - 4%. This was in an interview with Business FM, Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov said.

    "We have already started moving in this direction, so reducing the rate to 4% or 3% as already the base for greater interest and motivation of entrepreneurs is definitely not far off, that is, in the coming year we will definitely drop [the rate]," he added that he did not undertake to say whether all programs would reduce.

    The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade recalled that this year the Industrial Development Fund launches a new program for developers in the field of the Internet of things (wireless technology that allows devices to transfer data to each other without human participation). Entrepreneurs will be able to get preferential loans at 1% per annum.

    The Industrial Development Fund was established in September 2014 to support enterprises by issuing loans at a minimum interest. Loans are provided on a competitive basis at a rate of 5% per annum for up to seven years in the amount of 50 million to 500 million rubles.


    Подробнее на ТАСС:
    http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4967729

    Most excellent. This is a direct assault on the CBR. Yeltsin set up the CBR like the US Fed, a private entity that is barely accountable
    to the government but fully ideologized. If alternative financing structures are established and reach sufficient scale, they well
    flush the CBR down the toilet.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:46 pm

    Agreed, this is great news. Although, I would disolve the national welfare fund, and put funds into this, as it is a guarantee growth along with having lots of money in form of investment.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:42 am

    kvs wrote:
    GunshipDemocracy wrote:


    The Industrial Development Fund may reduce interest rates on loans to 3 - 4%

    Most excellent.   This is a direct assault on the CBR.   Yeltsin set up the CBR like the US Fed, a private entity that is barely accountable
    to the government but fully ideologized.    If alternative financing structures are established and reach sufficient scale, they well
    flush the CBR down the toilet.  

    Or it is just possible due to low inflation due to CBR? well do you expect Vova doesn't really control CBR and could not change Nabiulina if shed do anything against his will? I seriously doubt.

    My point is that yes you CAN decrease % rate BUT you pay with something else. More money on market with leaky banking system and very inefficient management? look at electronics market and Dimas statement. There was money but nobody used it - state corps preferred to use western analogues! If you rain this system with cash you only loose it. On top of thsi people loose their savings (those small guys not offshore cheats) .

    And this is IMHO Vovas stance: first system solutions then money.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:04 am

    miketheterrible wrote:Agreed, this is great news. Although, I would disolve the national welfare fund, and put funds into this, as it is a guarantee growth along with having lots of money in form of investment.

    That's true you need local source of money no tto beg on NY or London's SE. But for this AFAIK Russia will fist need to
    a) create large pension funds
    b) financial instruments like obligations, securities and so on

    Then you can internally invest money in Russia for better return then in offshore banks. Besides you can attract small guys to invest - and Russia's population deposits is



    Last line - Russian population banking deposits is about Ru 26,5 Trillions (~ USD 470 blns) . For period 2017-18 deposits grew: from 23,3 to 26,5 trillions rubles.
    Those are only deposits. Now imagine half deposit holders want to invest their money in economy. i guess this is the way Putin idea about development works.

    http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/UDStat.aspx?TblID=302-21
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    Post  kvs on Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:03 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Agreed, this is great news. Although, I would disolve the national welfare fund, and put funds into this, as it is a guarantee growth along with having lots of money in form of investment.

    That's true you need local source of money no tto beg on NY or London's SE.  But for this AFAIK Russia will fist need to
    a) create large pension funds
    b) financial instruments like obligations, securities and so on  

    Then you can internally invest money in Russia for better return then in offshore banks. Besides you can attract small guys to invest - and Russia's population deposits is



    Last line - Russian population banking deposits is about Ru 26,5 Trillions (~ USD 470 blns) .  For period 2017-18 deposits grew: from 23,3 to 26,5 trillions rubles.
    Those are only deposits. Now imagine half  deposit holders  want to invest their money in economy. i guess this is the way Putin idea about development works.

    http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/UDStat.aspx?TblID=302-21

    If the CBR gets solid competition then Russian banks will sign on to such investment plans.

    The removal of the CBR's monopoly on rate control would be something else. I bet we will soon start to see hysterical NATO
    propaganda about Putin's "voodoo economics" threatening Russia's financial stability. As if the CBR is not outright sabotaging it.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:18 am

    kvs wrote:

    If the CBR gets solid competition then Russian banks will sign on to such investment plans.    

    The removal of the CBR's monopoly on rate control would be something else.   I bet we will soon start to see hysterical NATO
    propaganda about Putin's "voodoo economics" threatening Russia's financial stability.   As if the CBR is not outright sabotaging it.

    hmm and is there any other country where CB is not the only place with % rate control? or I misunderstood something? Thi would be voodoo economics Razz
    Myeducated guess is: Vova looks also on population social unrest prospects. People sure about stability in country are more likely to stay and invest locally. Especially when barriers are removed and conditions are created.

    But ok we'll have to live to see it in making Smile



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    Post  kvs on Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:49 am

    GunshipDemocracy wrote:
    kvs wrote:

    If the CBR gets solid competition then Russian banks will sign on to such investment plans.    

    The removal of the CBR's monopoly on rate control would be something else.   I bet we will soon start to see hysterical NATO
    propaganda about Putin's "voodoo economics" threatening Russia's financial stability.   As if the CBR is not outright sabotaging it.

    hmm and is there any other country where CB is not the only place with % rate control? or I misunderstood something?  Thi would be  voodoo economics Razz
    Myeducated guess is: Vova looks also on population social unrest prospects. People sure about stability in country are more likely to stay and invest locally. Especially when barriers are removed and conditions are created.

    But ok we'll have to live to see it in making Smile


    The finance industry should be operated under free market rules. The CBR is a quasi-regulatory/government entity that distorts this
    market. In the west, central banks don't act to sabotage the economy. In Russia, the CBR is a monetarist hive that is grossly distorting
    the rate market and is itself voodoo economics. No, giving the CBR competition is not "voodoo economics". Your logic is bizarre.
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    Post  Austin on Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:10 pm

    Capitalization of the Russian stock market on Friday fell by 0.37%

    Moscow. 16 February. INTERFAX.RU - The capitalization of the Russian stock market, calculated on the basis of weighted average prices in the sector of the Main Market of the Moscow Stock Exchange, amounted to 38.812 trillion rubles ($ 685.829 billion at the official rate of the Central Bank of Russia) on Friday.

    Thus, compared with the closure of the previous trading day, capitalization fell by 142.538 billion rubles, or 0.37%

    Market value leaders are OAO Sberbank of Russia (5.732 trillion rubles), OAO Rosneft (3.459 trillion rubles), OAO Gazprom (3.268 trillion rubles).

    As of December 29, 2017, capitalization amounted to 35.853 trillion rubles, that is, since the beginning of the year the figure has increased by 8.25%.
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    Post  Svyatoslavich on Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:00 pm

    kvs wrote:In the west, central banks don't act to sabotage the economy.
    Believe it or not, they do, Fed is not only sabotaging the US economy, but the global one. QE, negative interest rates and overdebt will cause the biggest financial blow in history. Paul Craig Roberts has many excellent articles on this.
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    Post  kvs on Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:25 pm

    Svyatoslavich wrote:
    kvs wrote:In the west, central banks don't act to sabotage the economy.
    Believe it or not, they do, Fed is not only sabotaging the US economy, but the global one. QE, negative interest rates and overdebt will cause the biggest financial blow in history. Paul Craig Roberts has many excellent articles on this.

    That is not direct sabotaging of the US economy. The Fed is using all the dirty tricks and the US dollar reserve status to
    prop up the US economy at the expense of the rest of the planet. Whether there will be negative consequences for the USA
    itself due to Fed policy is a secondary consideration given the priority to prop it up.

    Nabiullina is openly sabotaging the Russian economy. The polar opposite of the Fed. And there will be plenty of
    additional negative feedback effects on the Russian economy in the future due to the current CBR activity.

    There is too much wishy washy "everything is the same" BS in political and economics discussions. Like the retarded
    equivalence supposedly existing between the USSR and Nazi Germany. This is superficial rubbish. The Fed is not
    sabotaging the US economy. It is keeping the zombie going.
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    Post  Singular_Transform on Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:26 pm

    Svyatoslavich wrote:
    kvs wrote:In the west, central banks don't act to sabotage the economy.
    Believe it or not, they do, Fed is not only sabotaging the US economy, but the global one. QE, negative interest rates and overdebt will cause the biggest financial blow in history. Paul Craig Roberts has many excellent articles on this.

    This is not the fed, the reason of all problem is the unbalanced trade around the world.

    Too big deficit in US/UK, to big surplus in China/Germany/Russia.

    The FED try to compensate it, but without changing the trade rules he can go this far only.
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    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:45 pm

    kvs wrote: The Fed is notsabotaging the US economy.   It is keeping the zombie going.

    +1



    kvs wrote:

    The finance industry should be operated under free market rules.   The CBR is a quasi-regulatory/government entity that distorts this
    market.   In the west, central banks don't act to sabotage the economy.   In Russia, the CBR is a monetarist hive that is grossly distorting
    the rate market and is itself voodoo economics.   No, giving the CBR competition is not "voodoo economics".    Your logic is bizarre.

    1) there is no free market in real live, it is always some kind of compromise between political forces

    2) West ? do you mean EU and USA? those cases are not comparable with Russia both live beyond their means and use "quantitative easing" , real inflation at concealment and getting hands on wealth transfer from half of the world including Russia's oligarchs.  Once Russia could rule half of the world it can start quantitative easing. Not now.

    So what in such situation would you suggest Russia do? a more complex description please? Russia prints money like Zimbabwe or Venezuela? Keeps high ruble course ? close borders and live in total autarchy being degrading level of science and technology?

    2) Not sure how CBR is sabotaging economy can you develop a bit beyond to high interest rate? Are you sure that % is the only problem?


    https://www.bankofindia.co.in/english/BaseRate.aspx


    Indian CB in 01.2017 set interest rate to 9,45%  (in Russia is 7,5 now and will decrease)

    "According to the IMF, India's growth is expected to rebound to 7.2% in the 2017–18 fiscal and 7.7% in 2018–19"
    +
    "In FY 2015 and 2017 India's economy became the world's fastest growing major economy surpassing China."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India

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