MOSCOW, 23 December. / TASS /. The budget of the Russian Federation in 2019 will be balanced with the cost of oil at $ 45 a barrel, he told Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
"We set ourselves the task in the next" three-year "further continue to reduce oil and gas deficit and reduce the budget's dependence on commodity revenues. In 2019, we plan to balance the budget at an oil price of $ 45 per barrel, which is practically at equilibrium production volume level and the demand for oil in the world economy ", - said the Minister.
It is also noted that the federal budget deficit without the sale of 19.5% of shares of "Rosneft" would have amounted to 3.5% of GDP.
Siluanov not exclude that the federal budget deficit on the basis of 2016 may be lower than 3.7% of GDP.
"In general, the budget (in 2016 - Ed.). Is executed with a deficit of 3.7% and we lay in the budget law, but the latest data on budget spending does not rule out that the figure may be somewhat more optimistic.. and perhaps will be 3.7%, "- he said.
The dividends of state companies
Siluanov said that the state-owned dividends to the federal budget in 2017 will come in the amount of 483.48 billion rubles, in 2018 -. 463.18 billion rubles, in 2019 -. 432 580 000 000 rubles.
"Dividend payments to the federal budget in 2017-2019 years are also planned on the basis of the direction of the payment of dividends at least 50% of the profits of companies with state participation in 2017 -. 483.48 billion rubles, in 2018 -.. 463.18 billion rubles, in 2019 -.. 432 580 000 000 rubles, "-. he said.
In 2016, the Government of the Russian Federation supported the proposal of the Russian Finance Ministry to increase the share of profit allocated by companies with state participation in the payment of dividends, from 25% to 50% of RAS net income (or 50% of net profit according to IFRS). The implementation of this solution will provide to the end of 2016 additional revenues to the federal budget in the form of dividends in the amount of 55.8 billion rubles.
Russian Ministry of Finance in 2017 will develop a set of long-term (for the period 2018-2025 years) of structural measures in the revenue and expenditure side of the budget.
The changes will affect the structure of the tax burden in the direction conducive to higher rates of investment and growth. In particular, reducing the burden on honest business, and increase the cost of doing gray schemes risks increasing load on the consumer, the rationalization of tax incentives.
In addition, the Ministry of Finance will change the structure of costs in favor of increasing the share of investment in human capital and physical capital, increasing their efficiency, rationalization of industry support measures.
At the same time, according to Siluanov, the Finance Ministry will prepare a response to the long-term challenges. "Complex incentives to increase the economic activity and the duration of the active life in the insurance system of pension and social security, as well as the growing role of involvement and prevention in the field of health and education", - said the Minister.
The decline in GDP
The decline of Russia's GDP could reach 0.5-0.6% in 2016, Siluanov said.
"This year, we will come out slightly better than the results of our assessment of the economy. If we are in the forecasts was assessed minus 0.6% of GDP, it is possible to be somewhere 0.5%. In this case we are talking about the fact that in some areas we see This increase in the growth rate of agricultural products, chemical, woodworking, light industry, agricultural machinery industry grew those in which support was provided, "-.. Siluanov said.
Siluanov said that the federal budget deficit in 2016 could reach 2.7% of GDP, if it had not been made a one-time decision on early repayment of "credit scheme," the Defense Ministry - debts to the defense enterprises.
"We are at the beginning of the year stated that the need to meet the 3% deficit at a lower (ie, $ 40 per barrel) than originally budgeted ($ 50 per barrel) oil price. If we calculate the costs with the exception of a single operation by early maturity "credit scheme" - we even slightly exceeded the plan - 2.7% of GDP, "- he said.
He explained that the budget deficit without the sale of 19.5% stake in Rosneft would amount to 3.5% of GDP.
The forecast for GDP growth
Ministry of Finance has improved the forecast for GDP growth in Russia in 2017 from 0.6% to 1-1.5%.
"Growth rates in some sectors say that we can see a higher rate of growth in the next year than planned. I remind you that we planned 0.6%, evaluations today are such that between 1% and 1.5% may be rate of economic growth in the next year ", - said Siluanov.
Inflation at the end of the year
The Finance Ministry expects inflation at the end of 2016 in the region of 5.5%.
"Inflation is now the president said, will be around 5.5%, which is lower than we had planned. Indeed, this is the lowest level for the whole of our history with you. Total reduced inflation from 17% in the 1.5 to 5, 5%, which is largely made possible thanks to the fiscal policy measures, which was implemented this year to curb the budget deficit, accurate approach to indexing a significant contribution to the reduction of inflation has made fiscal policy, "-. Siluanov said.
The share of treasury bonds
Siluanov said that the share of public debt in the federal budget deficit financing sources by 2019 will increase to 91% from 20% in 2016
. "In the years 2017-2019 the structure of sources of financing the federal budget deficit is fundamentally changed: the main (almost the only) source will be government borrowing, which will increase the share to 91% in 2019 against 20% in 2016. Fund-raising will be carried out exclusively by domestic borrowing, the net external borrowing in the 2017-2019 biennium will be negative. "- said the Minister.
He noted that the average annual domestic net borrowing over the next three years will be about 1 trillion rubles., Which is more than three times the average annual amount of net domestic borrowing in the last six years and is unprecedented in the history of modern Russia.
"Despite the increased government borrowing, the amount of debt will remain at a safe level, and will not exceed 20% of GDP," - said Siluanov.
OFZ to the public
The Finance Ministry also expects to place OFZ for the population in the I quarter of 2017
"We think that in the I quarter implement this idea (OFZ placement for the population - Ed.). Total output will be small, up to 20-30 billion rubles This paper nonmarket We want to understand the market, to accustom people to the fact that... they can invest not only in the deposits ", - said Siluanov.
The Finance Ministry expects growth in non-oil revenues in the budget of the Russian Federation for 2016 by almost 900 billion rubles.
The Minister stressed that the placement of OFZ for the population has been postponed due to the fact that banks have offered "placing unacceptable conditions", but rather a high commission for their implementation.
Siluanov also said that in addition to Sberbank and VTB, which have already announced their participation in this project, and other banks may join the issue of the instrument.
Earlier it was reported that the Ministry of Finance planned to issue paper to the end of 2016 Finance Ministry voiced so far only preliminary parameters of the issue: the repayment term - three years, coupon rate - comparable with traded OFZ coupon payment - every six months.