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    Russian Economy General News: #5

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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:21 am

    Cyberspec wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Got this in an email from a friend who is an expert on Economics and follow the trends on Oil Price fall,  Gold etc

    Oil fall IMO is due to demand destruction. Prices will rise but not now. Think- would you sell precious depleting resource for IOUs ie dollars? At some stage -and after having some buffer of dollars- sovereign nations will let oil price fall. And as demand is drying up in the west, brent and wti prices are down. The oil producers have given up on dollar. They dont trust it anymore. How soon until the people feel the same. The high yield bond market is going to go kaboom perhaps after rate hike - too many carry trades to unwind.

    Gold- what difference will it make if u buy today for 1000$ or tomorrow for 1100$ or in 12 months later for 10,000$? , Buy when there is spare cash buy it  

    Your friend understands the oil situation.   Many people including highly placed government officials in Russia simply do not.

    Considering that Russia is one of the largest gold buyers lately, suggests that they know what's going on...

    But not everyone agrees with that.  As well, there are individuals *cough*Kudrin*Cough* and ilk (people whom went to the same Higher school of economics in Moscow) keep stating otherwise.  CBR and various banks are the ones investing heavily into the gold.

    In other news:
    Putin instructed to set standards for quality and marginal cost of public procurement
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:53 am

    Aconitum: transshipment at sea ports of Russia for 11 months increased by 3% to 608.9 million tons

    Movement through the ports is good, and glad to see it growing.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Austin on Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:42 am

    kvs , What is the downside of weakening Rouble versus USD incase of fall in Oil Price ?

    Today Rouble is trading at 70 to 1 USD when Ural is trading at 36

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy


    Lets says CBR reduced interest rate to 9 or 10 % which weakens rouble further to says 75 or 80 to 1 USD.

    But reducing is takes care of most of budget deficit , What is the downside of weakning rouble in light of the fact that CBR is now targeting interest rate and not rouble rate
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:53 am

    I may not be KVS, but I can state that it is imports.  Inflation on imports will jump as it will now cost effectively more for the same products imported.  Even in countries where they also have weaker currency, will also be considered more expensive.  But in light of that, it will further increase domestic demand for production and it may also mean further investments.  Not guaranteed though.

    The thing to pay attention to is other currencies to the USD as well. CAD has dropped and will drop further, so it will hurt us too simply because we don't really produce much anymore. Krone will also drop. I imagine other currencies will drop too like the Bulivar and such. In this case, Russia can gain more out of these countries too.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  kvs on Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:49 am

    Austin wrote:kvs , What is the downside of weakening Rouble versus USD incase of fall in Oil Price ?

    Today Rouble is trading at 70 to 1 USD when Ural is trading at 36

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR
    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy


    Lets says CBR reduced interest rate to 9 or 10 % which weakens rouble further to says 75 or 80 to 1 USD.

    But reducing is takes care of most of budget deficit , What is the downside of weakning rouble in light of the fact that CBR is now targeting interest rate and not rouble rate

    We already went through this late last year. There was an inflation surge that spooked consumers leading to the large 2nd quarter economic
    contraction in 2015. This time around, however, the intensity of the inflation shock will be much lower, not just because of a smaller exchange
    rate change, but because most of the foreign imports that were affordable in the middle of 2014 have gone from the market. So the ruble
    dropping to 80 to the dollar is not such a big deal. In fact, it offsets the oil price drop as far as government and corporate revenues go.

    If Russia was an import dependent banana republic, then these exchange rate drops and export commodity price crashes would be extremely
    painful. The GDP would probably have dropped over 25% for some caricature country that the west fantasizes is Russia.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  kvs on Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:36 am

    http://www.sdelanounas.ru/blogs/71620/




    Samsung has localized 50% of its Russian market production.

    Ruble devaluation is very good for Russia. It baffles me how forex speculators could be handing Russia such a gift.
    Their fixation on Russia being some one-commodity banana republic is epic in its inanity and they are so blinded by
    their chauvinist retardation that they more than offset the oil price drop with the forex devaluation.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 16, 2015 7:43 am


    The price of oil at $ 35 a barrel is not critical to the banking system - Gref

    Interfax

    The cost of a barrel of oil at $ 35 is not critical to Sberbank and the Russian banking system as a whole. This is the opinion predpravleniya Sberbank German Gref, "Interfax".

    According to him, oil prices below $ 40 are additional challenges. "But in all cases we are considering, we including a variant of our stability, our economy, we expect the price of $ 35, and in all cases next year turns out not so critical," - he explained.

    Gref said that Sberbank forecast can be projected on the entire banking system of Russia. According to him, 2016 will be difficult, "if prices stay at this level."

    He also noted that if the low oil prices fall in the Russian economy may exceed expectations. "But some supercritical I honestly do not see it. I think it will be difficult for all public budgets, mainly the regional budgets, the debt will grow rapidly. I think that the federal deficit will be much larger than envisaged" - Gref said, adding that the low price of oil is necessary to think over the sources to cover the deficit or the sequestration of certain articles of the budget.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:49 am

    Ease of doing Business rank crucial for Russia

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Austin on Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:16 pm

    Worst of crisis over for Russia, but country needs to adjust to life with cheap crude - Putin

    https://www.rt.com/business/326280-putin-oil-russian-budget/

    Russian President Vladimir Putin said next year’s budget based on oil at $50 a barrel is too optimistic, considering current prices. However, he has assured the country that the worst of the economic crisis is over.

    “We are aware of the high dependence of our economy on the price of our traditional export products – oil, gas and their derivatives. We proceeded from the fact that the average price for Brent will be $100 per barrel,” said Putin during a news conference on Thursday.

    “When the price dropped from $100 to $50 per barrel we planned the budget considering these figures. Now the price is $38. We are forced to revise again,” Putin said.


    Putin said low oil prices have dragged down the Russian economy, but it’s slowly recovering and the worst of the crisis is behind.

    It is a 3.7 percent GDP contraction, 12.3 percent inflation. The real income of the population has fallen, the investment in fixed assets decreased by 5.7 percent. However, statistics show that the crisis in the Russian economy as a whole has passed its peak. From the second quarter, there are signs of stabilization in business activity. In September and October, GDP grew by 0.1-0.3 percent compared to the previous month,” he said.

    The President also addressed concerns over using the country's reserves to fill the hole in the budget left by falling crude prices. In October, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the nation’s Reserve Fund could be depleted in 2016, forcing the government to dip into its last remaining reserve, the National Welfare Fund.

    Our foreign reserves stand at $364.4 billion. They’ve depleted a bit, but it’s still a very solid figure,” said Putin.

    According to Russian Economic Development Minister Aleksey Ulyukaev, $40 oil doesn’t threaten stability in the economy, but won’t allow GDP, production and consumer demand to turn positive next year.

    In the adopted budget for 2016, the Kremlin was relying on $50 per barrel and 63.3 rubles per dollar.
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    A Different Voice

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  A Different Voice on Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:43 pm

    Tough to predict the future but it is far from clear that "the worst is over" for Russia's economy. Like all countries, the Russian government appears to be using optimistic projections for next year (i.e. revenue, inflation, oil prices, deficits, etc.). Even if things continue to go badly for a while, Russia is positioned well to weather the storm. Countries like Ukraine and Turkey can't say that.

    Russia's 2016 deficit-2.8-2.9%
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Dec 17, 2015 3:44 pm

    One guys comment on ria.ru comment section a week ago kinda stuck with me - he stated that there needs to be a push to make its budget $0 from oil and gas, and all profits taxed goes straight to the reserve/investments instead.  He is correct imo.
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    flamming_python

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  flamming_python on Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:05 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Aconitum: transshipment at sea ports of Russia for 11 months increased by 3% to 608.9 million tons

    Movement through the ports is good, and glad to see it growing.

    Quite a pathetic increase to be frank, as are all such similar 'accomplishments' with low figures like this.

    In the corporate world, if your business grows at 3% a year then it's stagnating, and dead sure to be overtaken soon by one that's growing 13%, or even 30%.

    And you can't make the excuse of having a high base - Russia's transit figures are small compared to the world giants in this sector, whose corresponding growth figures were much higher when they were at Russia's current position. As a proportion of its total seaport transit potential, Russia is severely under-performing here.

    Some people of course persist in telling us that the Russian economy is mighty and invincible, and only compares unfavourably because its economic figures are being under-cooked by world ranking agencies and financial instruments.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:44 pm

    A Different Voice wrote:Tough to predict the future but it is far from clear that "the worst is over" for Russia's economy. Like all countries, the Russian government appears to be using optimistic projections for next year (i.e. revenue, inflation, oil prices, deficits, etc.). Even if things continue to go badly for a while, Russia is positioned well to weather the storm. Countries like Ukraine and Turkey can't say that.

    Russia's 2016 deficit-2.8-2.9%
    Predictions are silly imo, and Russia made the smart move of setting budgets yearly rather than advanced.  Less than 3% deficit is wonders for the situation Russia is in, wish we had the same in Canada (which we do not.  Deficit will increase even more now).  Russia can weather it simply for its industrial base and how its economy is set up. 80% of its GDP is reliant on domestic consumption.  So they can theoretically set up their economy, 80% at least, purely on the needs of their own people.  They can even stimulate it through things like average person wages increase and so on so forth (technically, inflation would also go up and it is an artificial increase in gdp, not real).  But that would hurt overall exports which is the other 20% and that is still large.  Russia, has a huge control on CIS market and due to lower wages per dollar ammount vs europe and costof goods overall, it has not only made Russian products cheaper in Europe (Russia is now exporting things to Europe they didnt do before) but also cheaper everywhere else.  An example is that Russia is now selling rolled steel to India that they didnt do before, or China is opening up JV manufacturing like TV's that wasnt there either.  Or increasing the domestic parts in manufacturing.

    Turkey and Ukraine realied heavily on exports of goods to Russia due to Russias large consumption rate.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:46 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Aconitum: transshipment at sea ports of Russia for 11 months increased by 3% to 608.9 million tons

    Movement through the ports is good, and glad to see it growing.

    Quite a pathetic increase to be frank, as are all such similar 'accomplishments' with low figures like this.

    In the corporate world, if your business grows at 3% a year then it's stagnating, and dead sure to be overtaken soon by one that's growing 13%, or even 30%.

    And you can't make the excuse of having a high base - Russia's transit figures are small compared to the world giants in this sector, whose corresponding growth figures were much higher when they were at Russia's current position. As a proportion of its total seaport transit potential, Russia is severely under-performing here.

    Some people of course persist in telling us that the Russian economy is mighty and invincible, and only compares unfavourably because its economic figures are being under-cooked by world ranking agencies and financial instruments.
    Well, it is a good thing you know math, and an increase is an increase.  If you like it or not.  As well, read what grew and what fell in shipments.

    So, which ones growing at those rates your saying at same total weight?

    Only you can take a growth and call it bad and things are falling.  Chin up. Accept growth for what it is.
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    Werewolf

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Werewolf on Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:10 pm

    Funny this entire bullshit of everything in buisness must grow!

    Only retards believe that this is a healthy buisness that can hold itself only when it grows.
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Militarov on Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:39 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Aconitum: transshipment at sea ports of Russia for 11 months increased by 3% to 608.9 million tons

    Movement through the ports is good, and glad to see it growing.

    Quite a pathetic increase to be frank, as are all such similar 'accomplishments' with low figures like this.

    In the corporate world, if your business grows at 3% a year then it's stagnating, and dead sure to be overtaken soon by one that's growing 13%, or even 30%.

    And you can't make the excuse of having a high base - Russia's transit figures are small compared to the world giants in this sector, whose corresponding growth figures were much higher when they were at Russia's current position. As a proportion of its total seaport transit potential, Russia is severely under-performing here.

    Some people of course persist in telling us that the Russian economy is mighty and invincible, and only compares unfavourably because its economic figures are being under-cooked by world ranking agencies and financial instruments.

    3% is fkn huge on that scale. Some countries wish they had constant 3% grow in all fields.
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    Neutrality

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Neutrality on Thu Dec 17, 2015 8:06 pm

    Sometimes 3% is alot more than 20%. The important part here is the base number. 3% of 500 million is alot more than 20% of 5 million.
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    flamming_python

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  flamming_python on Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:53 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Aconitum: transshipment at sea ports of Russia for 11 months increased by 3% to 608.9 million tons

    Movement through the ports is good, and glad to see it growing.

    Quite a pathetic increase to be frank, as are all such similar 'accomplishments' with low figures like this.

    In the corporate world, if your business grows at 3% a year then it's stagnating, and dead sure to be overtaken soon by one that's growing 13%, or even 30%.

    And you can't make the excuse of having a high base - Russia's transit figures are small compared to the world giants in this sector, whose corresponding growth figures were much higher when they were at Russia's current position. As a proportion of its total seaport transit potential, Russia is severely under-performing here.

    Some people of course persist in telling us that the Russian economy is mighty and invincible, and only compares unfavourably because its economic figures are being under-cooked by world ranking agencies and financial instruments.
    Well, it is a good thing you know math, and an increase is an increase.  If you like it or not.  As well, read what grew and what fell in shipments.

    So, which ones growing at those rates your saying at same total weight?

    Only you can take a growth and call it bad and things are falling.  Chin up. Accept growth for what it is.

    Very minor growth is bad; like I said - when a business grows only by a couple of percentage points, that means its fresh out of ideas and strategies and is stagnating.
    You forget total shipping is constantly rising in the world, every year, perhaps by as much as 3% (cancelling out Russia's transit 'growth') and that most other port transit powers are growing too; including the ones at the top of the game, and many are growing faster than Russia.

    It's like calling a 2% increase in average salaries a good thing, while inflation was 6% for that year, and salaries in most other countries grew by more than 2% over the course of that same year.

    Yeah I saw the breakdown for figures not on transshipment, but total shipment - half the commodities shot up, half of them went down, or stagnated. And on balance the figure just happened to end up slightly on the positive side than the negative. That's not really progress.
    The only clearly good part of those figures was that imports clearly went down and exports went considerably up.

    Neutrality wrote:Sometimes 3% is alot more than 20%. The important part here is the base number. 3% of 500 million is alot more than 20% of 5 million.

    I already said not to use this argument.
    You think 500 million is a lot? There are ports in China that have more than that, Singapore too.
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    OminousSpudd

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  OminousSpudd on Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:16 pm

    What fruitloop corporate style nonsense are you using. Growth is growth, I know many companies in my country would give an arm and leg to have even 1% at end of business year. What is with Russians and your eternal pessimism, it pisses me off.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  kvs on Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:31 pm

    The word fruitloop is on the mark. One would expect 20% growth in trade if the GDP grew by 20%. So a 3% growth is actually quite
    good considering that supposedly the Russian GDP is supposed fall by 5% in 2015 (according to Moody's and friends).
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Militarov on Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:40 am

    Russia was never major sea trade route... what does it connect? Polar bears and camels in Iran? Russia is important road between East and West when Euroasia in mind, other than that all major sea routes are not near Russia except northen route but no need to stop in Russian ports at all for that.

    No Bosfor, Gibraltar, Suez, no wast warm water ports...no key sea route is connected with Russia. However they are connected with Turkey, Greece, Singapore, China, Japan...Panama...
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:10 am

    Militarov wrote:Russia was never major sea trade route... what does it connect? Polar bears and camels in Iran? Russia is important road between East and West when Euroasia in mind, other than that all major sea routes are not near Russia except northen route but no need to stop in Russian ports at all for that.

    No Bosfor, Gibraltar, Suez, no wast warm water ports...no key sea route is connected with Russia. However they are connected with Turkey, Greece, Singapore, China, Japan...Panama...

    A high concentration of fast rail/maglev networks freight capacity/efficiency should vastly surpass anything a warm water port could provide.
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Militarov on Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:19 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Militarov wrote:Russia was never major sea trade route... what does it connect? Polar bears and camels in Iran? Russia is important road between East and West when Euroasia in mind, other than that all major sea routes are not near Russia except northen route but no need to stop in Russian ports at all for that.

    No Bosfor, Gibraltar, Suez, no wast warm water ports...no key sea route is connected with Russia. However they are connected with Turkey, Greece, Singapore, China, Japan...Panama...

    A high concentration of fast rail/maglev networks freight capacity/efficiency should vastly surpass anything a warm water port could provide.

    Yeah railroad lines toward China, India, Mongolia, Iran, South Korea etc are far more beneficial for Russia itself. But i just tried to say that Russia having small amount of actual harbor transit is due to fact they are not on major sea routes and its natural.
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    AlfaT8

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  AlfaT8 on Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:23 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Militarov wrote:Russia was never major sea trade route... what does it connect? Polar bears and camels in Iran? Russia is important road between East and West when Euroasia in mind, other than that all major sea routes are not near Russia except northen route but no need to stop in Russian ports at all for that.

    No Bosfor, Gibraltar, Suez, no wast warm water ports...no key sea route is connected with Russia. However they are connected with Turkey, Greece, Singapore, China, Japan...Panama...

    A high concentration of fast rail/maglev networks freight capacity/efficiency should vastly surpass anything a warm water port could provide.

    Rail, yes, but Maglevs come on there crazy expensive and probly high maintenance too.

    Backinblack

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #5

    Post  Backinblack on Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:18 am

    Russian Arms Producers Enjoyed 1.5-Time Rise Against General Recession

    http://mil.today/2015/Weapons10/

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