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    Russian Economy General News: #5

    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:30 am

    Project Canada wrote:
    Rumor still stands though on the $21B contract but we are not sure if ssj-100 involved or not.

    I read on RT that the deal involves ssj-100s, im not sure why a source from the Iranian side denied this Question

    Someone from Irans ministry of roads and what not stated that there was no order for SSJ-100's. But nothing about the $21B in total contracts.
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    Post  Nikander on Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:04 pm

    http://t.co/4hIkcOTPKo

    Glazyev report in full
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:38 pm


    Why Russia Sanctions Are Stupid and Spell the End of Western Influence

    Sanctions imposed on Russia are not just failing, but they are weakening the western economic system built up over the last three centuries


    http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/why-russia-sanctions-are-stupid-and-spell-end-western-influence/ri10003

    Originally appeared at Russia & India Report

    Economic sanctions on Russia seem to be hurting the imposer more than the intended target. Britain’s oldest conservative think tank, the Bow Group, has published a paper from six Eastern European analysts on the affect of sanctions against Russia on Eastern Europe and the wider West. The report reveals the estimated financial costs of sanctions to the West could exceed $755 billion – roughly equal to the annual US defence budget.

    The paper details the potential costs: the UK will lose $9.6 billion in exports, 119,000 jobs and $41 billion of Russian capital invested in the country. The US economy is expected to take a hit of $137 billion in trade, including $38 billion in exports, and up to $30 billion in US capital tied up in Russia.

    To illustrate why and how this is happening, let’s start with what’s happening in a key sector – oil.

    In September 2014, Russian oil giant Rosneft and US oilco ExxonMobil announced the discovery of a huge new oil deposit in the Kara Sea northeast of Murmansk. The Arctic well – with a drilling area the size of Moscow – contains around nine billion barrels of crude oil. At today’s prices it would be worth $43 trillion – or 43 times the annual income of Australia.

    Exxon executives had barely raised a toast to one of the most spectacular discoveries in their long history when the hangover happened. The US ban on ties with Russia forced the company to call off its partnership with Rosneft.

    Strategic risk consultant and author William Engdahl explains the significance of the American company’s loss. For more than two decades Russian oil companies had dreamed of tapping this gusher. It took the combined resources of Exxon and Rosneft to finally drill in the Arctic, with the first well – the most expensive in ExxonMobil history – costing $600 million.

    And here’s the cruellest part. According to Engdahl, “Conveniently for Rosneft, ExxonMobil is forced out just after finishing the most complex and difficult part of the project.”

    According to him, until the Ukraine crisis and sanctions, Russia had jealously limited foreign share-holding in its state-owned oil and gas companies. That’s now changing with deepening energy ties between China and Russia, ironically, the opposite result of what America’s Eurasia strategy is intended to achieve.

    According to Stephen Kinzer of Brown University, “By pushing Russia away, we are driving it toward China, thereby encouraging a partnership that could develop into a true threat to American power.”

    If the Russia-China partnership morphs into a military alliance, all bets are off America.

    Pain at the pump

    Other measures aimed at hurting Russia are boomeranging. When the US – in cahoots with its Saudi sidekick – started driving down the price of oil, the Americans scarcely knew they’d be the ones falling in their own trap. With the price of oil sloshing around the sub $50 mark, the US finds its own oil sector reeling.

    Low oil prices are leading to investment cutbacks across America. UPI reports that “$1.5 trillion of investment spend destined for new and US tight oil projects is now out of the money”, with 40 major projects on hold.

    Falling investment is having a cascading impact on production. “There are signs that US production has started to respond to reduced investment activity,” the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries says in its monthly market report. “All eyes are on how quickly US production falls.”

    America can say goodbye to its plans to be an oil exporter.

    Financial harakiri

    Finance is the bedrock of the western economic system. It is a measure of the world’s confidence in the stability of this system that its two primary nerve centres are in New York and London. The latest sanctions are eroding confidence in this financial ecosystem and driving finance to places like Shanghai. This won’t take long because unlike investments in automobile plants or engineering enterprises, financial flows are easy to reroute.

    When the US imposed sanctions on Russia’s SMP Bank in March 2014, the hawks behind the move thought the 170,000 Russians losing access to their Visa and MasterCard accounts would turn against the Russian government. But ordinary Russians are not easily fooled and clearly know who approved and implemented the sanctions.

    Guess who the real loser is. “In the longer term, damage to the initiator can be much greater, and in this case erodes US credit card dominance,” Scott Semet, an expert on Russian financial markets, writes in a detailed analysis on sanctions in the National Interest.

    And the unexpected winner: China’s UnionPay, which was already set to be a major challenger to Visa and MasterCard due to its dominance in settlement and payment services in the world’s largest market. “Western readiness to sanction credit cards no doubt served as a wakeup call to China and others, and will lead them to redouble their efforts,” Semet explains.

    It is clear that denying access to western capital markets undermines their attractiveness to borrowers from other regions. Countries such as India and Iran, which have been hit by western sanctions in the past, are likely to be wary of fickle western capital. “Imposition of these sanctions was a wake-up call that borrowers can be shut off markets if they refuse to toe the line,” says Semet. “The damage is amplified as currently the world is awash in capital, and profitable opportunities to employ it are limited. Such opportunities are more likely to be found in developing countries, not stagnating western ones.”

    That is exactly right. Russian companies are now seeking finance from China, which has foreign currency reserves of $3.3 trillion. Plus, private Russian companies can borrow from the BRICS New Development Bank and the China-led AIDB.

    The really curious part is that western nations are showing such alacrity in hurting Russia at a time when the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – group is erecting alternate systems that are independent of western control. Russia which is at the core of virtually every group – including BRICS, SCO and the Eurasian Customs Union – aiming to realign the world away from the West, would be thrilled that its efforts are gaining traction.

    Russia’s resilience

    To be sure, sanctions will take their toll on Russia too. According to Citicorp, every $10 decline in the price of crude shaves 2 per cent from the country’s GDP.

    But here’s what Russia is doing – while it may appear counterintuitive, Moscow is pumping even more oil into the global markets than before. This is aimed at protecting its market share. For, if the Russians cut back, the suicidal Saudis will make a grab for it.

    And it seems the strategy is paying off. Citicorp says Russia’s GDP could grow – by western standards, a healthy – 3.5 per cent per year. And this is without expecting a recovery in crude prices.

    Counter sanctions – imposed by Moscow – are forcing Russians to find alternatives for a variety of products such as French cheese and Italian olive oil. Plus, the fall in the ruble has driven up the prices of many imported items, leading to companies buying cheaper Russian products. Both factors have caused a spurt in national economic activity which any economist will tell you is a good thing.

    The benefits of forced import substitution would not be lost on other countries that are watching with interest the West’s economic warfare on Russia. For, they too can replace western goods and services and boost their own economies, avoiding the classic “drain of wealth” syndrome.

    Stop digging in your hole

    When sanctions begin to hurt the imposer more than the target, it is a sign that the imposer should either withdraw the existing sanctions or at least stop imposing new ones. In layman’s language, when you are in a deep hole, it’s best to stop digging. But clearly the Americans and their sidekicks in the West are way over their heads in events they can’t begin to understand, let alone control.

    Perhaps the hawks in Washington are now dusting up Plan B.
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:45 pm


    10 Surprising Facts About Russian Exports You Might Not Know

    For one thing Russia now exports more agricultural products than weapons


    http://russia-insider.com/en/business/10-surprising-facts-about-russian-exports-you-might-not-know/ri10026


    When Russian goods exports come to mind, people tend to think of things like oil, gas, vodka and high-tech weaponry. But as Russia's Gazeta.ru has found, the country's exports are, in fact, becoming “sweeter and more peaceful.”

    Here are the top-10 most interesting facts about the shifting dynamic of Russian exports, according to the newspaper.

    1. Despite arms exporters continuing to enjoy a cushy position among Russia's non energy-related export earnings, the country's exports are becoming more peaceful. Over the past year, Russian agricultural producers exported $20 billion worth of food goods, growing by 15 percent compared to the previous year, and leading agricultural products to outstrip weapons as a total share of exports.

    2. Russia's T-90 main battle tank is one of the best-selling tanks in the world, with India alone expected to have 2,000 units in service by 2020, roughly half of them produced locally on export license. Other operators of the $2.5 million-a-piece tank include the former Soviet republics of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, along with developing countries in the Middle East and Africa, including Algeria and Uganda. Sales of Russian tanks and armored vehicles abroad far outstrip their American and German competitors, with Russia continuing to serve as the second-largest conventional arms exporter in the world after the United States.

    3. Russia's shipments of agricultural machinery abroad are on track to reaching record levels for the post-Soviet period. In the first six months of 2015, Russian producers sold 3.8 billion rubles worth (about $60 million USD) of equipment. While it might not seem like much at first, this figure is over double the amount sold last year. In the past year, exports of equipment from producers like Rostselmash have tripled to countries including Canada, Germany, France, Bulgaria, Turkey and Azerbaijan, and doubled to countries including Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Tajikistan.

    4. Russia is uptight about sharing its waste paper. This summer, Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev signed a decree according to which waste paper was added to a list of important goods in the Russian market. Moreover, earlier this month, the Ministry of Economic Development decided to temporarily ban the export of recyclable paper and cardboard products. It cited the rising profitability of exporting paper products given a weak ruble, and the resulting pressures on domestic enterprises dependent on recyclables. In 2014, over two million metric tons of waste paper were collected in Russia, an estimated 350 thousand tons of which was exported, generating about $65 million in revenue.

    5. Russia does not want to share its vodka anymore either. Exports of the distilled beverage have fallen by half in dollar terms since the beginning of the year, to $57.7 million, declining 36 percent in volume compared to last year, to 0.8 million deciliters. The largest fall in exports was recorded among CIS countries (whose purchases fell by 72 percent). The decline in vodka exports is associated with reduced production of the drink, whose output fell 22.5 percent over the past year, with exports facing an even greater decline than domestic consumption.

    6. In 2015, the export of Russian pork products exploded from previous levels,growing by 700 percent, even though the nominal volumes remain relatively low (15,000 metric tons). Still, it's a good start. By comparison, export of poultry over the past year amounted to 70,000 metric tons, growing by 12 percent over the past year.

    7. Bran Makes You Strong Comrades: Turkey can't seem to get enough Russian bran. In the past year, between July 2014 and July 2015, Russia exported over 680,000 metric tons of bran, 80 percent more than a year earlier. Moreover, 90 percent of Russia's bran exports went to Turkey. Despite the fact that the country has its own bran growers, apparently they do not have enough for the production of animal feed.

    8. State guarantees supporting Russian industrial exports have grown five-fold over the past two years, while the amount of state-backed loans has increased by 30 times.About 350 billion rubles ($5.3 billion) has been allocated to support Russian exports, with another 550 billion rubles ($8.3 billion) in loans in the pipeline.Speaking of pipelines, the main industries supported by the government's initiatives include producers of industrial goods in the energy sector, transport engineering equipment, agricultural machinery, aviation and the automotive industry.

    9. Japan is crazy about the Soviet-Russian children's story character Cheburashka.In 2013, a Japanese director made a full-length cartoon about the beloved character. A toy version of Cheburashka is one of the most popular children's products in the country. Although Russia's share in the global toy market is not very developed, the country's toy industry has big plans to change all that in the near future, planning to export roughly a quarter of the country's most innovative toys abroad, mainly to Europe, by 2018.

    10. Over the past several decades, Russian passenger cars have become the source of jokes and ridicule over their antiquated designs and shoddy finish. Nonetheless, given impressive new designs and improving quality, demand for Russian cars is steadily growing abroad, exports increasing in 2015 by 20 percent to Kazakhstan, and by over 4.5 times in Germany. One of the most popular vehicles in the Avtovaz lineup remains the legendary 4x4, known on export markets as the Lada Niva.

    Selling toys to Japanese? That takes some skillz. russia
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    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:26 pm

    In Ulyanovsk opened machine-tool manufacturing company "DMG MORI"

    Take it for what it is. It may be a foreign company but localization is over 50% and by 2019 much higher than that. Not the only tooling company in Russia, but it created jobs and provides goods that are still in demand in Russia. If sanctions hit too hard though, the company may be forced to shut down, unless they quickly come up with alternatives to the imported parts.
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    Post  Vann7 on Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:06 am



    Indeed selling toys to Japan require skills lol lol1

    Is like trying to sell Russian jeans in America or compete with hollywood.
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    Post  higurashihougi on Wed Sep 30, 2015 7:53 am

    Let's do some Russian manga bro Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

    Russian Economy General News: #5 - Page 22 Crimea-attorney-general-natalie
    George1
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    Post  George1 on Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:40 am

    Putin to discuss measures to overcome economic recession in 2016 with government

    The Bank of Russia announced on September 11 that it expected this year's economic downturn at 3.9-4.4% of GDP, and in the future - at 0.5-1.0%

    MOSCOW, September 30. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold a regular meeting with government members on Wednesday. "The main issue on the agenda will be measures to overcome the economic recession in 2016," the Kremlin press service reported.

    The Bank of Russia announced on September 11 that it expected this year's economic downturn at 3.9-4.4% of GDP, and in the future - at 0.5-1.0%. The Economic Development Ministry projects a 0.9% GDP growth for 2016.

    At a meeting on the federal budget projections for next year held on September 22, the head of state said it was necessary to take measures to overcome the economic recession, but the budget deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP.

    "It is necessary to ensure stable balance and sustainability of public finances, significantly reduce the dependence of the federal budget on oil prices and quotations. The planned budget deficit for the next year should not exceed 3% of GDP," he said. Putin said that the budget deficit target was one of the most important for the government in the budget process. "To achieve this level, I ask to look carefully at the revenue side of the budget," Putin said.

    In recent weeks, the draft federal budget for 2016 has been discussed at a meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. At these meetings, the Finance Ministry proposed to leave the budget spending in 2016 at the level of 2015, that is, to reduce them to 650 billion roubles ($9.79 billion) against the planned amount for 2016 in the three-year plan for 2015-2017. In this case, the budget deficit will amount to 2.8 - 2.9% of the country’s GDP.

    According to the president, although the situation in the economy is difficult, it’s not critical, and there are opportunities to enhance the country’s economic potential. Putin instructed the Cabinet to find equilibrium between supporting economic growth and the budget balance.

    Russia was faced with the current economic difficulties after a significant decline in energy prices and the introduction of sanctions restrictions. In early September, Putin said that, in his opinion, the Russian economy had virtually adapted to the new oil prices. Speaking of the measures to overcome the crisis, the president said that "the general line is the free enterprise expansion, red tape reduction in our economic system, improving the decision-making system and the business climate.".
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    Post  Austin on Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:56 am

    I am trying to find out offical Public Debt figure for Russia like via CBR , Cant find it really.

    2015 has small budget surplus Vedemosti reports , about 600 billion Rouble or so
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    Post  PapaDragon on Wed Sep 30, 2015 1:44 pm


    "World Economic Forum Rating Heralds Russia's Growing Competitiveness

    Russia has reportedly moved up eight positions to 45th place in the ranking of the most competitive economies."


    http://sputniknews.com/world/20150930/1027773472/russia-competitiveness-rating.html#ixzz3nDmqAFyE
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    Post  Austin on Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:18 pm

    As per IMF projection PPP wise , Russia is 3976 ..... India PPP GDP is 4x times Russia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IMF_ranked_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_%28PPP%29#Graphical_projection_of_economies_in_2020_by_IMF

    I was under the impression Russia would over take Germany and even Japan by 2020
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:41 pm

    Austin wrote:As per IMF projection PPP wise , Russia is 3976 ..... India PPP GDP is 4x times Russia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IMF_ranked_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_%28PPP%29#Graphical_projection_of_economies_in_2020_by_IMF

    I was under the impression Russia would over take Germany and even Japan by 2020

    Look at the projections and then look at this:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    I see something really wrong here. While they show India jumping ridiculously high and same with China and other bullcrap, Russia barely changed in the amount.  So in other words, IMF, being the piece of shit they are in predicting anything, thinks the current issues are projected all the way to 2020. So in other words, no economic movement at all.  I think you know better than that to know its bs.

    I think we had this conversation with you more than once. Simply put, take the predictions and throw them out. Next year, if there was a major war lets say, the gdp ppp of many nations would drop. Or lets say oil increased again to $100bbl, many nations gdp ppp would skyrocket.  Or if inflation in Russia drops and turns to deflation, and people started making more money, then its gdp ppp will increase.  We have 4 1/4 years to go till we reach that time frame, so be prepared to have a very different outlook.  India may face total collapse as an example due to growing border conflicts and not being involved in silk road project while Russia is as an example.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-21/comedy-imf-forecasting-errors-global-trade-tumbles-more-50-imfs-2012-prediction

    Shows how "accurate" IMF predictions are (over 50% error).

    As well, the Japanese one is the biggest joke. We are talking about a nation that is over 300% in debt, their currency dropped as well, infation increased and their wages dropped on average, while prices on homes as an example are extortion rate.


    Last edited by sepheronx on Wed Sep 30, 2015 3:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Wed Sep 30, 2015 2:57 pm

    Austin wrote:I am trying to find out offical Public Debt figure for Russia like via CBR , Cant find it really.

    2015 has small budget surplus Vedemosti reports , about 600 billion Rouble or so

    That is only Augusts numbers.
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Wed Sep 30, 2015 5:57 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:Let's do some Russian manga bro Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

    Russian Economy General News: #5 - Page 22 Crimea-attorney-general-natalie
    Ok, here are 3 that i know of:

    Jabberwocky
    Russian Economy General News: #5 - Page 22 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.manga-sanctuary.com%2Fbig%2Fjabberwocky-manga-volume-1-simple-219954
    http://bato.to/comic/_/comics/jabberwocky-r1397
    (Uses some weird art style which i haven't seen before, been meaning to ask if it's Russian?)

    Guns and Stamps
    Russian Economy General News: #5 - Page 22 3183901e5a48eb55ad6140eccc8d3efb
    http://bato.to/comic/_/comics/guns-and-stamps-r8002
    (Not Russia specific, but think Germany and Russia teaming up to fight Ottomans)

    Kutsuzure Sensen
    Russian Economy General News: #5 - Page 22 7bf6034e0c3c54c929fb72eebda37620
    http://bato.to/comic/_/comics/kutsuzure-sensen-r2147
    (Very Russian, think WW2 with Slavic witches and folklore creatures, and lots of info about them and other thing related to Russia, very fun and educational.)
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:40 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:As per IMF projection PPP wise , Russia is 3976 ..... India PPP GDP is 4x times Russia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IMF_ranked_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_%28PPP%29#Graphical_projection_of_economies_in_2020_by_IMF

    I was under the impression Russia would over take Germany and even Japan by 2020

    Look at the projections and then look at this:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    I see something really wrong here. While they show India jumping ridiculously high and same with China and other bullcrap, Russia barely changed in the amount.  So in other words, IMF, being the piece of shit they are in predicting anything, thinks the current issues are projected all the way to 2020. So in other words, no economic movement at all.  I think you know better than that to know its bs.

    I think we had this conversation with you more than once. Simply put, take the predictions and throw them out. Next year, if there was a major war lets say, the gdp ppp of many nations would drop. Or lets say oil increased again to $100bbl, many nations gdp ppp would skyrocket.  Or if inflation in Russia drops and turns to deflation, and people started making more money, then its gdp ppp will increase.  We have 4 1/4 years to go till we reach that time frame, so be prepared to have a very different outlook.  India may face total collapse as an example due to growing border conflicts and not being involved in silk road project while Russia is as an example.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-21/comedy-imf-forecasting-errors-global-trade-tumbles-more-50-imfs-2012-prediction

    Shows how "accurate" IMF predictions are (over 50% error).

    As well, the Japanese one is the biggest joke. We are talking about a nation that is over 300% in debt, their currency dropped as well, infation increased and their wages dropped on average, while prices on homes as an example are extortion rate.

    Actually Japan is reported to have a combined private and public held debt that is over 400% of Debt-to-GDP ratio.
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    Post  victor1985 on Wed Sep 30, 2015 8:25 pm

    [quote="sepheronx"][quote="Austin"]As per IMF projection PPP wise , Russia is 3976 ..... India PPP GDP is 4x times Russia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IMF_ranked_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_%28PPP%29#Graphical_projection_of_economies_in_2020_by_IMF

    I was under the impression Russia would over take Germany and even Japan by 2020[/quote]

    Look at the projections and then look at this:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    I see something really wrong here. While they show India jumping ridiculously high and same with China and other bullcrap, Russia barely changed in the amount.  So in other words, IMF, being the piece of shit they are in predicting anything, thinks the current issues are projected all the way to 2020. So in other words, no economic movement at all.  I think you know better than that to know its bs.

    I think we had this conversation with you more than once. Simply put, take the predictions and throw them out. Next year, if there was a major war lets say, the gdp ppp of many nations would drop. Or lets say oil increased again to $100bbl, many nations gdp ppp would skyrocket.  Or if inflation in Russia drops and turns to deflation, and people started making more money, then its gdp ppp will increase.  We have 4 1/4 years to go till we reach that time frame, so be prepared to have a very different outlook.  India may face total collapse as an example due to growing border conflicts and not being involved in silk road project while Russia is as an example.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-21/comedy-imf-forecasting-errors-global-trade-tumbles-more-50-imfs-2012-prediction

    Shows how "accurate" IMF predictions are (over 50% error).

    As well, the Japanese one is the biggest joke. We are talking about a nation that is over 300% in debt, their currency dropped as well, infation increased and their wages dropped on average, while prices on homes as an example are extortion rate.[/quote]


    no surprise at all. after all do you think that america is capable of lying? same question i put to myself
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:22 pm

    Schlumberger withdraws from Eurasia Drilling deal
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Wed Sep 30, 2015 9:27 pm

    There's a work-around for everything:

    Europe helps Russia get banned US electronics for ExoMars project
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    Post  kvs on Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:05 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:As per IMF projection PPP wise , Russia is 3976 ..... India PPP GDP is 4x times Russia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IMF_ranked_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_%28PPP%29#Graphical_projection_of_economies_in_2020_by_IMF

    I was under the impression Russia would over take Germany and even Japan by 2020

    Look at the projections and then look at this:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    I see something really wrong here. While they show India jumping ridiculously high and same with China and other bullcrap, Russia barely changed in the amount.  So in other words, IMF, being the piece of shit they are in predicting anything, thinks the current issues are projected all the way to 2020. So in other words, no economic movement at all.  I think you know better than that to know its bs.

    I think we had this conversation with you more than once. Simply put, take the predictions and throw them out. Next year, if there was a major war lets say, the gdp ppp of many nations would drop. Or lets say oil increased again to $100bbl, many nations gdp ppp would skyrocket.  Or if inflation in Russia drops and turns to deflation, and people started making more money, then its gdp ppp will increase.  We have 4 1/4 years to go till we reach that time frame, so be prepared to have a very different outlook.  India may face total collapse as an example due to growing border conflicts and not being involved in silk road project while Russia is as an example.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-21/comedy-imf-forecasting-errors-global-trade-tumbles-more-50-imfs-2012-prediction

    Shows how "accurate" IMF predictions are (over 50% error).

    As well, the Japanese one is the biggest joke. We are talking about a nation that is over 300% in debt, their currency dropped as well, infation increased and their wages dropped on average, while prices on homes as an example are extortion rate.

    These predictions are so phony it hurts the brain.   The US is supposed to increase to $22.5 trillion but Russia will experience zero net PPP GDP growth.  
    Where is this growth going to come from for the US?   Since 2008 it has lost a lot of well paying permanent jobs in the longest jobless
    recovery in post WWII history.   The US is continuously offshores good jobs and fills them with low paying temp crap in retail and other
    services.   Good pensions for workers are a thing of the past unless you work a long time for government or the lucky few who managed
    to have long term jobs at big companies.  

    In contrast, Russia has a lot of room to grow just like China.   Russia is nowhere near saturated in development like the US which is
    actually undergoing anti-development or reversion to 3rd world status.   I am sick and tired of all these two-bit politically motivated
    evaluations of Russia and its economy.   They are transparent BS projection and wishful thinking.
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    Post  sepheronx on Thu Oct 01, 2015 12:11 am

    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:As per IMF projection PPP wise , Russia is 3976 ..... India PPP GDP is 4x times Russia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IMF_ranked_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_%28PPP%29#Graphical_projection_of_economies_in_2020_by_IMF

    I was under the impression Russia would over take Germany and even Japan by 2020

    Look at the projections and then look at this:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    I see something really wrong here. While they show India jumping ridiculously high and same with China and other bullcrap, Russia barely changed in the amount.  So in other words, IMF, being the piece of shit they are in predicting anything, thinks the current issues are projected all the way to 2020. So in other words, no economic movement at all.  I think you know better than that to know its bs.

    I think we had this conversation with you more than once. Simply put, take the predictions and throw them out. Next year, if there was a major war lets say, the gdp ppp of many nations would drop. Or lets say oil increased again to $100bbl, many nations gdp ppp would skyrocket.  Or if inflation in Russia drops and turns to deflation, and people started making more money, then its gdp ppp will increase.  We have 4 1/4 years to go till we reach that time frame, so be prepared to have a very different outlook.  India may face total collapse as an example due to growing border conflicts and not being involved in silk road project while Russia is as an example.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-21/comedy-imf-forecasting-errors-global-trade-tumbles-more-50-imfs-2012-prediction

    Shows how "accurate" IMF predictions are (over 50% error).

    As well, the Japanese one is the biggest joke. We are talking about a nation that is over 300% in debt, their currency dropped as well, infation increased and their wages dropped on average, while prices on homes as an example are extortion rate.

    These predictions are so phony it hurts the brain.   The US is supposed to increase to $22.5 trillion but Russia will experience zero net PPP GDP growth.  
    Where is this growth going to come from for the US?   Since 2008 it has lost a lot of well paying permanent jobs in the longest jobless
    recovery in post WWII history.   The US is continuously offshores good jobs and fills them with low paying temp crap in retail and other
    services.   Good pensions for workers are a thing of the past unless you work a long time for government or the lucky few who managed
    to have long term jobs at big companies.  

    In contrast, Russia has a lot of room to grow just like China.   Russia is nowhere near saturated in development like the US which is
    actually undergoing anti-development or reversion to 3rd world status.   I am sick and tired of all these two-bit politically motivated
    evaluations of Russia and its economy.   They are transparent BS projection and wishful thinking.

    And the easy counter is this: Import substitution and growth in demand of local production of other goods.  While the industrial/manufacturing market is hit simply due to a mixture between lack of consumer demand and the fact that the automotive industry (second or third largest industrial producer in terms of % in Russia) has dropped over 40% this year.  But once you mix in the import substitution, as well as increase in other areas of growth (agriculture, high tech, and heavy equipment industry), will drastically increase Russia's PPP terms, simply put, because the products will become much cheaper in the long run over imports and also end up dominating the domestic market due to both sanctions and the fact of it being cheaper.  Russia is to increase minimum wage by at least 7% (and possible indexation of pensions increase) next year, will increase overall spending of average Russian by 7% (not enough to meet inflation but better than nothing).  And as well, people cannot stop buying altogether indefinitely so there will be an eventual growth. Also, add in that many companies from even west are opening up new productions and increasing localization of parts. All these little things add in to Russia's GDP growth, especially PPP since PPP takes into account the cost of goods within Russia and how forex has little to do with it. Then there is when Power of Siberia is completed and Nord 2, as well as the LNG plants and finally, the modernization of various metallurgy companies and growth in production of oil products, will help hugely.

    But as it was mentioned before, Russia wont see the benefits of import substitution in terms of its total economic output for at least another couple of years.  But there is so much ground breaking work happening in neck breaking speeds that, yes, it makes these predictions absolutely pathetic.  US has a growing unemployment rate and # of people on food stamps, now more than ever, so how are they to grow?  As well, Japan is worst off now than it was a couple of years ago.  That was mentioned on zerohedge more than once.

    As well, I understand small business development in Russia is slowly increasing again.  But I don't have the figures on hand though.  But I remember reading it sometime back in Feb or March.
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    Post  Austin on Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:54 pm

    Crisis in Emerging Markets: Is Russia Better Off Than Brazil?
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    Post  Austin on Thu Oct 01, 2015 4:56 pm

    It's 2006 All Over Again




    Check out the video it has some old interview with Peter Schiff of 2006 when the Housing Bubble began.

    See how many panelist out there making fun of him and laughing at his face , saying these talks of Peter are good to sell Newsletter Laughing
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    Post  sepheronx on Thu Oct 01, 2015 5:26 pm

    Brazil is a mess not because of anything but their own incompetence. Petrobras and its corruption, government and their corruption, and relying on sales to US and China.

    As well, Brazil has some real stupid import protection laws on things they dont even produce at home. For instance, a playstation 4 costs as much for a Brazillian as flying to Florida, stay in a hotel for a couple of days, buying a PS4, then flying back home.

    This is an example.

    As for housing market crash potential, well, there is that and the dotcom 2.0 brewing. But the home industry is an odd one since these days, after last crash, companies like Blackstone or whatever they are called, own a ridiculous amounts of property in the states and are the main housing rental organization.
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    Post  Austin on Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:37 am

    Check the new Interview with Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov , He also explains why high Fisical Deficit is bad for Russia , Gives examples too

    Nice Interview

    Anton Siluanov - RBC: "Cheap oil - bitter medicine, but it treats"

    http://daily.rbc.ru/interview/economics/01/10/2015/560d62f29a7947ddebd9b53c
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    Post  sepheronx on Fri Oct 02, 2015 10:40 am

    Austin wrote:Check the new Interview with Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov , He also explains why high Fisical Deficit is bad for Russia , Gives examples too

    Nice Interview

    Anton Siluanov - RBC: "Cheap oil - bitter medicine, but it treats"

    http://daily.rbc.ru/interview/economics/01/10/2015/560d62f29a7947ddebd9b53c

    Good video.  But too bad, they will end up having to in order to survive.  A few billion in debt added to at least help get things started now, they can pay back later (much sooner).

    If they cut funding to development and procurement's, then companies usually go belly up, and thus more has to be spent to support them. If they keep up with funding and development (especially development), they will end up being able to get out of this a lot easier as more money will be accumulated through those investments and more jobs through those developments (means even more in taxation money). Russia's GDP is roughly 80% the consumers/tax payers. If lets say those tax payers end up losing their jobs and or stops buying altogether, then the Russian government is effectively screwed. Having a small deficit isn't as bad, but don't let it get too big either.

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