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    Russian Economy General News: #4

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    flamming_python

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  flamming_python on Sat Feb 28, 2015 4:20 pm

    TheArmenian wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    TheArmenian wrote:
    By the way, some of the biggest losers are the US makers: GM (Chevrolet and Opel) and Ford
    Hurting the US automakers without placing sanctions Cool

    None of which is good news to Russia though, I'm afraid.

    These US automobile makers employ thousands of Russians, including many fine engineers, specialists, etc...
    Their pay is typically above the Russian-average, given that their activities are largely concentrated in the richer regions of the Russian Federation; e.g. St. Petersburg and Kaluga.
    They also pay large amounts of tax roubles into the federal budget.

    Generally agreed.
    Automotive industry is one of the industries I understand very well. So, allow me to provide some information that you might find useful in the future.

    - Automotive assembly plant (like the foreign maker's plants in Russia) are just assembly plants. The assembling process of a car makes only about 20% of the total costs of making an automobile. The bulk of the costs is in the design and parts used in making the car.

    - Only few foreign makers in Russia have more than 40% of the parts made in Russia. Take the General Motors plants in Russia: The Chevrolet Niva is made almost entirely of Russian parts and is designed in Russia (it is a GM-Avtovaz joint venture after all). The St. Petersburg plant built cars have less than 40% Russian content. The Avtotor plant (which is Russian owned) in Kaliningrad makes GM vehicles out of CKD (complete knock down) kits with very little Russian content.

    - Now, which GM vehicles are suffering the most decline in sales?
    Obviously the ones made outside Russia will be suffering the most because of the decline in the Russian currency.
    Next in line will be the ones assembled of kits (the Avtotor made vehicles) with little domestic content.
    Followed by the St. Petersburg produced ones which have some domestic content.
    Least decline in sales will be the Chevrolet Niva who's price will be affected the least (because it has the most domestic content)

    Now guess what the foreign makers are doing: planning to increase the % of Russian made parts in their Russia produced automobiles.
    Here is the site where I follow the Russian automotive market news (in Russian and English): http://www.autostat.ru/

    Now, another automotive news piece:
    We already know that Lada (Avtovaz) has restarted operations in some European countries. I have information that they have big plans for the Middle East and elsewhere. They are well known in Egypt for example. They have just signed an agreement with a dealership in Lebanon and sales will start there this year.
    The decline in the Rubble value will definitely help Russian exporters.

    Indeed you are right, I have come across factories that simply do assembly from knock-down kits during my own research for that big list.
    But even here for example, there are differences; like for example the difference between SKD and CKD; the earlier being just some assembly of a completely-welded, already-painted shell with pre-assembled engines and other components, and the later taking the form of a kit made up of more broken-down elements, that have to be welded together, painted, electro-plated, with the engines and so on assembled on seperate assembly lines. The later also allows for the gradual introduction of localized parts.

    - Indeed Avtotor just does assembly from knock-down kits for European, Asian and American manufacturers. Presumably SKD although I'm not sure.
    - Derways does the same only for Chinese manufacturers. I presume these are SKDs.
    - TagAZ is bankrupt now but worked with European and Asian manufacturers (it's a CKD-capable plant, with its own welding, electroplating, painting workshops). Although it will be revived under new leadership AFAIK.
    - Sollers-Dalnyj Vostok produces Ssangyong, Toyota and Mazda cars. The localization is at no more than about 5% at the moment, so it's pretty much assembly. Although, this is a new factory, and increased localization is certainly planned.
    - Skoda has a deal where its SUVs are assembled at the GAZ plant in Nizhny Novgorod, from CKDs.

    On the other end of the scale though we have the most-highly localized brands though.
    In rough descending order:
    - AvtoVAZ
    - Renault
    - Volkswagen
    - Hyundai/KIA
    - Ford
    - Nissan
    - Peugot/Citroen/Mitsubishi

    Here are some good articles:
    http://www.autoreview.ru/_archive/section/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=122298&SECTION_ID=6801
    http://www.zr.ru/content/news/574641-eksperty_nazvali_samyje_rossijskije_inomarki/
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Mar 01, 2015 5:26 am

    Hey guys, ever wonder why the West didn't put sanctions on Russian titanium? Probably one of the most explosive facts about the titanium industry as a whole...Boeing, the largest exporting corporation in America, ranks #30 on the Fortune 500, and is the 2nd largest defense contractor in the world, is dependent on Russia for a whopping 40% of it's titanium!!! lol1  lol1  lol1  Despite Russia being "sanctioned" and "isolated", Boeing is set to set up yet another joint titanium development plant in Russia:

    AVISMA has signed a new contract with Boeing
    Russian and American corporations plan to build a joint plant



    Russia has signed a new contract for the supply of titanium components with the American Aircraft Corporation Boeing. Told the head Rostec Chemezov on Defense Industry Exhibition IDEX, held in Abu Dhabi.

    In the near future Russian and American companies plan to sign a contract for the construction of the second joint plant for processing of titanium products, the general director of the State Corporation.

    Currently, the only enterprise in the world, carrying out a full cycle of production of titanium components, including aircraft, is AVISMA , part of Rostec.

    All civil aircraft Boeing produced using Russian titanium. Recall AVISMA and Boeing began collaborating in 1993. Today, the Russian Corporation provides up to 40% of the US company in titanium. In 2006, a joint venture to process titanium forgings Ural Boeing Manufacturing in Upper Salda.

    In July 2014, Boeing and VSMPO-AVISMA eight years extended the contract for the supply of titanium . The new agreement is designed to 2022. The Russian company will continue to supply Boeing rolled titanium in the agreed annual quantities to meet the needs of the production of civil aircraft.

    Company AVISMA is also a major supplier of titanium for by Airbus. The company cooperates with the world's leading aircraft and engine building companies, including: SNECMA, Rolls-Royce, Embraer, Bombardier Aerospace, PFW Aerospace GmbH, Pratt & Whitney and others. The main production sites are located in the Upper Corporation Salda (Sverdlovsk region) and Berezniki (Perm region).

    AVISMA - the world's largest producer of titanium ingots and all kinds of semi-finished products made of titanium alloys, as well as large-size extruded aluminum products, semi-finished products of alloy steel and heat-resistant nickel-based alloys. Is a member of the State Corporation Rostec.

    AVISMA provides up to 40% of Boeing's titanium


    Come on U.S. State Dept., why don't you put sanctions on Russian titanium? Come on I dare ya! Wink After you do, go and watch Boeing, America's 2nd largest defense conglomerate crumble in front of your eyes!!! Twisted Evil
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Mar 01, 2015 6:23 am

    Kamaz is set to completely undergo import substitution, and in 2015 will create more than 460 domestic special tools, will save 120 million Rubles in the process:

    KAMAZ masters program of import substitution
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  GarryB on Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:39 am

    Come on U.S. State Dept., why don't you put sanctions on Russian titanium? Come on I dare ya! Wink After you do, go and watch Boeing, America's 2nd largest defense conglomerate crumble in front of your eyes!!!

    Much better would be the suggestion that any further US sanctions will lead to a cut in Titanium exports direct to the US... Sell it to a third party and make the US pay what ever extra the third party demands for selling it to the US...

    Actually I read somewhere that some companies within the Russian MIC with serious export orders like UAC and the makers of vehicles and equipment could give the Russian military a break by cutting their production and sales to the Russian military by 10 or 15% which can then be put into other areas of the Russian economy that might need more investment or might be better not to cut.

    The excess production not going to the Russian military could be sold for export for export dollars, bringing money into the economy at a time when they have production capacity and sales in US dollars are the most valuable to Russian makers... they could resume production later and make up the numbers later on...

    Interesting...
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    Werewolf

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Werewolf on Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:09 am

    GarryB wrote:
    Come on U.S. State Dept., why don't you put sanctions on Russian titanium? Come on I dare ya! Wink After you do, go and watch Boeing, America's 2nd largest defense conglomerate crumble in front of your eyes!!!

    Much better would be the suggestion that any further US sanctions will lead to a cut in Titanium exports direct to the US... Sell it to a third party and make the US pay what ever extra the third party demands for selling it to the US...

    Actually I read somewhere that some companies within the Russian MIC with serious export orders like UAC and the makers of vehicles and equipment could give the Russian military a break by cutting their production and sales to the Russian military by 10 or 15% which can then be put into other areas of the Russian economy that might need more investment or might be better not to cut.

    The excess production not going to the Russian military could be sold for export for export dollars, bringing money into the economy at a time when they have production capacity and sales in US dollars are the most valuable to Russian makers... they could resume production later and make up the numbers later on...

    Interesting...

    I am saying that for month now and russia needs to exactly this, actually they need to Sanction entire US/EU countries for titanium, so they will buy russian titanium via other countries and pay more for it, while 2nd row customers of titanium earn money with it, russia won't make any losses actually with likelyness gain even more money.
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    higurashihougi

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  higurashihougi on Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:48 am

    magnumcromagnon wrote:Come on U.S. State Dept., why don't you put sanctions on Russian titanium? Come on I dare ya! Wink After you do, go and watch Boeing, America's 2nd largest defense conglomerate crumble in front of your eyes!!! Twisted Evil

    The West put sanction on Russia by buying Russian space rockets, oil, gas, titanium, steel, and so on.

    U.S. oil oligarch put sanction on Russia by invest a huge amount of money on a cooperation project with Russia.

    So on and so forth.
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    TheArmenian

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  TheArmenian on Sun Mar 01, 2015 11:40 am

    To Flaming Python,

    Avtotor, Derways, TaGaz etc. are mostly CKD.
    And yes, they can easily revert to using more and more localized parts.
    Before the stoppage, TaGaz even introduced its own design (TaGAz Aquila)...but things went sour for that company, I don't know what happened, maybe you can tell me.

    Nissan has recently introduced the Datsun range of small cars that are being produced in the Avtovaz factory. Their On-Do model is based on the Lada Granta/Renault Logan model and has a high domestic content. Same story with the Nissan Almera.

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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:33 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:
    magnumcromagnon wrote:Come on U.S. State Dept., why don't you put sanctions on Russian titanium? Come on I dare ya! Wink After you do, go and watch Boeing, America's 2nd largest defense conglomerate crumble in front of your eyes!!! Twisted Evil

    The West put sanction on Russia by buying Russian space rockets, oil, gas, titanium, steel, and so on.

    U.S. oil oligarch put sanction on Russia by invest a huge amount of money on a cooperation project with Russia.

    So on and so forth.

    They put no sanctions on Russian titanium, even Boeing demanded Obama not to. Russia should threaten a titanium embargo, make them think twice!
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Mar 01, 2015 2:38 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Come on U.S. State Dept., why don't you put sanctions on Russian titanium? Come on I dare ya! Wink After you do, go and watch Boeing, America's 2nd largest defense conglomerate crumble in front of your eyes!!!

    Much better would be the suggestion that any further US sanctions will lead to a cut in Titanium exports direct to the US... Sell it to a third party and make the US pay what ever extra the third party demands for selling it to the US...

    Actually I read somewhere that some companies within the Russian MIC with serious export orders like UAC and the makers of vehicles and equipment could give the Russian military a break by cutting their production and sales to the Russian military by 10 or 15% which can then be put into other areas of the Russian economy that might need more investment or might be better not to cut.

    The excess production not going to the Russian military could be sold for export for export dollars, bringing money into the economy at a time when they have production capacity and sales in US dollars are the most valuable to Russian makers... they could resume production later and make up the numbers later on...

    Interesting...

    That 3rd-party should be China, they could set up a deal with China for them to make up the difference in titanium bought from the U.S., this way they can have a serious bargaining chip over the U.S. pivot to Asia.
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    flamming_python

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  flamming_python on Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:23 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    Come on U.S. State Dept., why don't you put sanctions on Russian titanium? Come on I dare ya! Wink After you do, go and watch Boeing, America's 2nd largest defense conglomerate crumble in front of your eyes!!!

    Much better would be the suggestion that any further US sanctions will lead to a cut in Titanium exports direct to the US... Sell it to a third party and make the US pay what ever extra the third party demands for selling it to the US...

    Actually I read somewhere that some companies within the Russian MIC with serious export orders like UAC and the makers of vehicles and equipment could give the Russian military a break by cutting their production and sales to the Russian military by 10 or 15% which can then be put into other areas of the Russian economy that might need more investment or might be better not to cut.

    The excess production not going to the Russian military could be sold for export for export dollars, bringing money into the economy at a time when they have production capacity and sales in US dollars are the most valuable to Russian makers... they could resume production later and make up the numbers later on...

    Interesting...

    Why would Russia want to cut its own companies out of a market and damage their credibility to their customers?

    Only the West does that.
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  GarryB on Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:12 am

    Only do it to the west.

    The US can still buy Russian Titanium... it is just that they have to buy it through third parties, which should make it more expensive.

    Why Should the US get away with effecting the Russian economy with unilateral sanctions for a crime they commit every other year... I mean interfering in a conflict zone is what the US does.... and no one punnishes them for that yet they repeatedly punnish other countries for not obey their rules even when they don't follow them themselves.

    Personally I support any Russian action that will further separate Russia from the west in general because the west is not a good trading partner and Russia cannot afford to become dependent on the west as the west will always be unreliable.
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    higurashihougi

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  higurashihougi on Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:01 am

    The Lithuanian goverment is going nuts, isn't it ? Shocked Shocked Shocked

    http://uatoday.tv/business/lithuania-seeks-to-import-us-liquefied-natural-gas-to-break-russian-energy-stronghold-411136.html

    Lithuania seeks to import US liquefied natural gas to break Russian energy stronghold Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  kvs on Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:23 am

    higurashihougi wrote:The Lithuanian goverment is going nuts, isn't it ? Shocked Shocked Shocked

    http://uatoday.tv/business/lithuania-seeks-to-import-us-liquefied-natural-gas-to-break-russian-energy-stronghold-411136.html

    Lithuania seeks to import US liquefied natural gas to break Russian energy stronghold Shocked  Shocked  Shocked  Shocked  Shocked

    Let them. Their chihuahua yapping is tiresome and they are irrelevant.

    But they are in for a rude shock in terms of what they will be paying.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:35 pm

    Looking at projected Oil Demand/Production just for BRICS Nation and more specfically India-China-Russia as energy consumers/suppliers

    If you check EIA projection from India and China alone

    http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/more_overview.cfm


    China accounting for 10.7 MMbbl/d of the total increase. As China's economy moves from dependence on energy-intensive industrial manufacturing to services, the transportation sector becomes the most significant source of growth in liquid fuels use, and the country's liquid fuels consumption more than doubles from its 2010 level. In the Reference case, China replaces the United States as the world's largest consumer of liquid fuels by 2035 (Figure 7).

    India

    http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=in

    The gap between India’s oil demand and supply is widening, as demand reached nearly 3.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013 compared to less than 1 million bbl/d of total liquids production. EIA projects India’s demand will more than double to 8.2 million bbl/d by 2040

    Compare to what Russia Energy Minister says about Domestic Oil Production

    http://tass.ru/ekonomika/1798000

    Energy Strategy of Russia until 2035 is not intended to reduce the volume of oil production, but change the structure of production in the region. This was reported by the TV channel "Russia 24" Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak.

    "We do not expect a decline in production, they will be at the level of 525 million tons of oil by 2035," - he said.

    525 million tons corresponds to roughly ~ 10 million bbl/d by 2035

    So Essentially Russia wont be pumping more or less Oil compared to what they DO NOW.

    And India and China Oil Appetite would more than double in roughly the same period.

    Selling its Oil Production to just China and India Alone would make up most of its exports for the next 20 years

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:36 pm

    watch the video

    David Stockman, architect of President Reagan's economic turnaround known as 'Morning in America', warns of the looming collapse of free market prosperity and the destruction of American wealth.

    Few Will Survive "Sundown in America"

    Video : http://pro.dentresearch.com/BNBSTOCK/PBNBR204?h=true
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:54 pm

    Russia: Novak briefs Putin on record-breaking energy performance


    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:27 pm

    Russian Ministry of Finance expects $30 billion capital outflow in Q1 — Finance Minister
    http://tass.ru/en/economy/780582

    MOSCOW, March 2. /TASS/. The Russian Ministry of Finance expects the $30 billion capital outflow in Q1, Finance Minister Siluanov said on Monday.

    "Concerning the capital outflow, we expect it as totaling about $30 billion in the first quarter and $90-100 billion in annual terms. This is slightly lower than our assumption in the outlook, which was equal to $120-130 billion," the minister said. The said figure covers $60-70 billion of foreign debt repayments, Siluanov added.
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    flamming_python

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  flamming_python on Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:32 pm

    GarryB wrote:Only do it to the west.

    The US can still buy Russian Titanium... it is just that they have to buy it through third parties, which should make it more expensive.

    Why Should the US get away with effecting the Russian economy with unilateral sanctions for a crime they commit every other year... I mean interfering in a conflict zone is what the US does.... and no one punnishes them for that yet they repeatedly punnish other countries for not obey their rules even when they don't follow them themselves.

    Personally I support any Russian action that will further separate Russia from the west in general because the west is not a good trading partner and Russia cannot afford to become dependent on the west as the west will always be unreliable.

    It still doesn't make sense, even if we just do it to the West

    The whole point in an economic contest is to hurt the opposing economy as much as possible while safeguarding your own as much as possible

    In this case the hit on Western companies will be pretty severe, but then Russian titanium manufacturers will also be badly hit.
    What's more, its maximum effect will be in the short-term, because as we know - it's always easier to find someone to buy from and buy something, than to find someone to sell to and sell it.
    So it's easy to conclude that the Americans would have an easier time finding other suppliers, than the Russian titanium majors would have finding other customers.

    This is why the Americans and Europeans have been shooting themselves in the foot with all these ridiculous sanctions, based on the arrogant premise that they and their capabilities are irreplacable - whereas in fact being replaced is exactly what is and what will happen to them.

    However, the West can afford such stupid tactics, that damage Russia's economy temporarily and their own for much longer but later on; because the West's economy dwarfs the Russian one - therefore they can well afford to take some damage to their own interests, if they think enough short-term shocks and pressures would suffice to bring Russia to its knees (they're wrong on that, but at least, their strategy does make some logical sense).

    Russia can't afford to use such tactics, and they won't achieve much - the West will have enough money to support their companies, they will find other suppliers, etc... they will survive even if Boeing and co. takes a beating - whereas for Russia the short-term and long-term costs of cutting off co-operation with such a large customer will be more significant than the damage it briefly dishes out.

    Of course in co-ordination with cutting off all gas-supplies, and all the other measures taken together - this can all be effective - but this is more of a doomsday weapon.

    Russia's best bet is to stick with something like its masterful move at limiting Western agricultural imports; which not only did big damage to the EU's agricultural sector (more than anything, the hostile Eastern European ones), but simulataneously provided a big boost to Russia's own agriculture.
    The more stunts Russia pulls off like this; that both strengthen itself while weaken its opponent - the stronger its position is going to become. Far better than a 'lose-lose' game of chicken with the West.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  sepheronx on Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:45 pm

    Only reason they have the money, is its fiat and they print it like Zimbabwe. Look at US GDP at end of cold war to now. Its disgusting. But so is its debt. Eventually, how things are playing out with a mix of Greece potential fallout and re-instating Drachma, and Russia trading with other countries in their respective currencies - bringing in concept of true market value, will force USD to eventually end up same boat as before end of cold war, maybe broke. But, it would also serve them better in long term.

    Yes, they could find someone else, but they turned to Russia due to availability, cheapness and experienced smeltering for Titanium. Effectively, they can screw US over by indeed selling it to India and China at smaller costs while forcing the US to buy it from them. Or setting up a auction center for its titanium and other metals like they did for gas, and that could make them a pretty penny too.

    Actually, even if their GDP (what a joke, since Russia is rich in minerals and industry) is theoretically smaller, they have the physical assets, not the US. And the other countries can then charge more because lack of competition.

    There are other options too. But in the end, major companies in US, will move elsewhere if the governments policies screws with their business. This has been evident for years. Also goes for both sides really. But Russia has nationalized most strategic companies to prevent that from happening.
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  GarryB on Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:10 am


    It still doesn't make sense, even if we just do it to the West

    The whole point in an economic contest is to hurt the opposing economy as much as possible while safeguarding your own as much as possible

    What economic contest? The US is a bully and the west is the gang that supports the bully and follows it around when it picks on different countries and entities.

    You tell me what happens to victims of bullying that don't retaliate?

    On the Cosby show the bully would realise what a bad person they are being and appologise and turn around their behaviour... but in the real world the US simply continues to bully, because it is not about being on top... it is about staying on top.

    By cutting off relations with the US and expanding those relations to other countries that often get ignored or sidelined because they are not as lucrative a market as the US market it you isolate the bully and find unity amongst those on the receiving end of their bullying.

    It is hardly the A league, but when you have to be Americas bitch to enter the A league I would avoid it and make something new.

    Russia has no ideology to push and no religion to sell, it just wants open free and most of all FAIR trade on an even playing field. US and western sanctions make trade with those countries unfair and unbalanced so Russia should only trade with such countries where they will get the benefits they want.


    In this case the hit on Western companies will be pretty severe, but then Russian titanium manufacturers will also be badly hit.
    What's more, its maximum effect will be in the short-term, because as we know - it's always easier to find someone to buy from and buy something, than to find someone to sell to and sell it.

    When there is demand... Look at Russian helos for Afghanistan and even then they had their own helos they could have sold. Sure they would have been useless, but when did they care about that?

    So it's easy to conclude that the Americans would have an easier time finding other suppliers, than the Russian titanium majors would have finding other customers.

    This is why the Americans and Europeans have been shooting themselves in the foot with all these ridiculous sanctions, based on the arrogant premise that they and their capabilities are irreplacable - whereas in fact being replaced is exactly what is and what will happen to them.

    If they could get what they need from other suppliers for the same price they would have included Titanium in the sanctions list. They clearly can't. It is the same with Europe and gas... if they could get the same product for even nearly the same price and the same volumes then they would be already cutting the pipelines to Russia.

    They have been shooting themselves in the foot and as shown with Russian retaliation in banning food from them Russia will find other sources and when that Russian ban expires not all of those alternative suppliers will be affordable, but quite a few remain so we are not talking about 1 year blocked from the Russian market... for some suppliers it could be permanent.

    What I am saying is that the more areas Russia can find alternative sources the better.

    Russia can't afford to use such tactics, and they won't achieve much - the West will have enough money to support their companies, they will find other suppliers, etc... they will survive even if Boeing and co. takes a beating - whereas for Russia the short-term and long-term costs of cutting off co-operation with such a large customer will be more significant than the damage it briefly dishes out.

    But areas like the supply of gas and titanium and indeed oil... all the growing economies of the world are interested in these resources... it is not like an agricultural based economy where if the EU wont accept it this year it will be rotten by next year and is therefore a total write off.

    If you don't want to buy my Titanium this year I'll sell it to you in 3 years time... for three times more cost because in 3 years time everyone will be recovering from a bad economy blip and will want to manufacture their way out... which means they need materials like titanium and oil and gas...

    Of course in co-ordination with cutting off all gas-supplies, and all the other measures taken together - this can all be effective - but this is more of a doomsday weapon.

    Russia needs effective counter sanction proposals that will really hurt the west, that might be uncomfortable for Russia in the short term but over a longer term lead to a stronger Russia.

    this thread is talking about a vulnerable Russia because it is dependent on oil revenue... I suggest to you that the real vulnerable Russia is a Russia dependent on the west and the US because as the Mistral deal has shown... there is huge potential, but also huge risk.

    Not suggesting Russia should isolate itself from the west... I think it should focus growing ties with other regions like central and south america, asia, and africa... and areas of the EU that have proven able to resist brussels and washington.

    Careful attention should be paid to what EU members say and do.


    Russia's best bet is to stick with something like its masterful move at limiting Western agricultural imports; which not only did big damage to the EU's agricultural sector (more than anything, the hostile Eastern European ones), but simulataneously provided a big boost to Russia's own agriculture.
    The more stunts Russia pulls off like this; that both strengthen itself while weaken its opponent - the stronger its position is going to become. Far better than a 'lose-lose' game of chicken with the West.

    I agree, Russia should not cripple itself to punish the west in general and the US in particular, but it must realise that the EU and US are not friends or allies and likely never will be.

    Certain countries within the EU have shown they are not blindly led by the US and Russia should continue to cooperate with them, but otherwise they should ignore the rest and let them sort out their own problems.
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    Kyo

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kyo on Tue Mar 03, 2015 7:57 pm

    Russian Agricultural Equipment Firm Plans 20% Increase in Exports in 2015

    The company president noted that the devaluation of the ruble has had a positive effect in strengthening the competitiveness of his company's products, both externally and internally. "The devaluation of the ruble is good for Russian producers because the share of foreign competitors in the market is decreasing, since their equipment has doubled in price. Accordingly, our cost competitiveness increases."
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    Cyberspec

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Cyberspec on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:51 am

    Russia and Abu Dhabi in talks to develop major new airport in Cuba
    http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/russia-and-abu-dhabi-in-talks-to-develop-major-new-airport-in-cuba

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Wed Mar 04, 2015 8:01 am

    Russia’s Reserve Fund drops 19.5%, National Welfare Fund downs 10% by March 1 — ministry

    MOSCOW, March 3. /TASS/. Russia’s Reserve Fund set up to accumulate surplus oil revenues and cushion the budget against a sharp fall in oil prices decreased by 19.5% in February to 4.721 trillion rubles ($75.75 bln) by March 1 from 5.865 trillion roubles ($85.09 billion) as of February 1, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday.

    Russia’s National Welfare Fund established to help the government implement pension reform dropped by ten percent in February to stay at 4.591 trillion rubles ($73.66 billion) as compared to 5.1 trillion roubles ($74.02 billion) a month ago, the ministry said.

    The State Statistics Service registered the highest level of the Reserve Fund at $137.34 billion (12.5% of the GDP) in February 2009, while the lowest level was at $25.21 billion (1.4% of the GDP) in January 2012.

    The highest level of the National Welfare Fund was at $93.38 billion (7% of the GDP) in November 2009, while the lowest level was at $31.92 billion (1.9% of the GDP) in September 2008.

    Since the beginning of the year, the Reserve Fund has lost 4.5% and the National Welfare Fund has lost 4.6%.

    On January 15 - February 28, 2015 the Reserve Fund's investment losses were estimated at 4.13 billion roubles ($66 million), the National Welfare Fund's losses were at 2.45 billion roubles ($39 million).

    Russia’s international reserves are highly liquid foreign assets managed by the Central Bank of Russia. They comprise foreign currency, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), a reserve position in the International Monetary Fund and monetary gold.

    Russia’s international reserves fell by $124.135 billion or 24.4% in 2014 to $385.46 billion as of January 1, 2015.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Austin on Wed Mar 04, 2015 8:02 am

    Vedimosti mentioned Reserve Fund would drop to as low as 500 billion roubles in 2017.

    Is Printing Rouble an option to loosen liquidy crunch at some point in time , How about printing says 5 trillion roubles more .......will this seriously impact inflation ?
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    Kyo

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

    Post  Kyo on Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:52 pm

    Austin wrote:Vedimosti mentioned Reserve Fund would drop to as low as 500 billion roubles in 2017.

    Is Printing Rouble an option to loosen liquidy crunch at some point in time , How about printing says 5 trillion roubles more .......will this seriously impact inflation ?

    QE is inflationary, even more so when ruble is being devalued wrt hard currencies.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #4

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