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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:10 pm

    Hopefully this happens:

    Duma chief hints at Russia’s exit from Council of Europe

    par far

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  par far on Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:57 pm

    Austin wrote:Russia’s anti-crisis program offers partial ‘pain relief’ — ex-finance minister Kudrin


    Kudrin is a traitor who could sell his own mother, we cannot put any stock into what he says. He is controlled by the Zionists.

    The Zionists are pushing oil prices down but these idiots don't know is that China and India benefit from this and they are very good allies of Russia, Iran and Venezuela and they will help these countries out(like China did in Venezuela).
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    Viktor

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Viktor on Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:45 pm

    Nice thumbsup

    Russia's Central Bank unexpectedly slashes rate to 15%, ruble reels

    Moscow, Seoul Sign Agreement on Energy Cooperation in Far East, North Korea

    Anti-Russian Sanctions Lead to Marked Growth in Domestic Tourism

    something going on with Mexico

    Mexican Airline to Order Ten More Russian Sukhoi Superjet-100 Planes

    Direct Supplies of Russian Oil Products to Mexico May Increase


    and the MAIN thing Very Happy russia thumbsup

    Rosstat: Russian GDP in 2014 grew by 0.6%
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    TR1

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  TR1 on Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:12 pm

    Everyone start partying, oil prices went up 8%!
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:24 pm



    I wonder if the clowns who spew about the ruble FX rate drop would care to explain how the ruble "collapse"
    is intrinsically bad for Russia. It dropped much more between 1998 and 1999 and we all know the rest of the
    story.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:27 pm

    Austin wrote:Russia’s anti-crisis program offers partial ‘pain relief’ — ex-finance minister Kudrin

    In the west, it is standard for the media to introduce experts to counter balance an opinion spouted by some politician
    or ex-government hack like Kudrin. Why is the Russian media parading this clown's opinions without context.

    Kudrin talks a lot but has no evidence of what he claims.

    Funny how the troll clowns on this board and elsewhere get on Rogozin's case for making realistic statements,
    but Kudrin's tin foil hat drivel does not get any criticism.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:32 pm

    Austin wrote:I was expecting a 50 % Fall in FDI to some where around $30 billion but 19 is a drastic fall


    FDI has never been a serious factor in Russia's economic development over the last 20 years. So basically, who cares?
    It's not like all of the branch plants from car manufacturers have pulled out. In fact, there are production lines being
    set up by foreign manufacturers in Russia today. They have to do this if they want to compete on the Russian market
    thanks to the ruble FX drop.
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    TR1

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  TR1 on Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:02 pm

    kvs wrote:

    I wonder if the clowns who spew about the ruble FX rate drop would care to explain how the ruble "collapse"
    is intrinsically bad for Russia.   It dropped much more between 1998 and 1999 and we all know the rest of the
    story.

    Do you not understand the effect a ruble collapse has on a large proportion of the population, and especially those with savings?

    Russian's savings got fucked in 1991, they got fucked in 1998, and they recently got fucked again.
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    higurashihougi

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  higurashihougi on Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:52 am

    TR1 wrote:Do you not understand the effect a ruble collapse has on a large proportion of the population, and especially those with savings?

    Russian's savings got fucked in 1991, they got fucked in 1998, and they recently got fucked again.

    One of my friends explained that the decreased ruble value has something to do with Russia buying gold and oil price.

    What do you think ?

    Huy Phúc wrote:The very fact is that, oil price is being tied to rub (ruble) value and rub ratio, not to dollars.

    If you look at the decreasing and increasing of oil price recently, and compare with the rub:USD ratio, well you can see that, while oil price in USD decreased partially toghether with the rub ratio, or in other words oil price in rub is more or less the same.

    That means Russia sells oil by rub, not by USD. Russia controls oil price by its rub value.

    Why ? Because Russia economy is powerful and independent. There is no way for USD to wreck havoc inside Russia.

    Unlike the propaganda of the West, Russia manufacturing sector is independent. Russia not only exports oil, but also supreme class grain powder, expensive cheese, rocket engines, and many other high-tech, high-quality goods.

    Huy Phúc wrote:Russia has been sending out considerable amount of ruble, caused inflation. This change occured about 1-2 days after the event of 15 December 2014.

    In 2014, Russia spent 70 billion of USD of foreign exchange to buy rub, to keep the value of the rub stable. Then after that, Russia sent paper rub out to buy gold, I means true gold, not paper gold, of the U.S. Unlike the U.S. who is living by artificial value and stock market bubble, Russia has a healthy economy and gold price will increase inside that healthy economy. When gold price increase, Russia will use gold to buy back the spent rub.

    So you can see, in 2013 Russia sold rub with high price, in 2014 bought back rub with low price, in 2015 sold rub again, and Russia receives a huge profit from that. Very Happy Very Happy Russia's profit is enhanced by the wave resonance caused by the West itself. And if the resonance becomes too powerful, the West will be decisively crushed.

    However, right at the time of sending rub into the market, Russia dramatically increased the bank interest rate. That encouraged Russian people to send rub to the bank. Paper rub accumulated inside the people. Russia was hanging a heavy boulder over the head of American stocks and was gathering the force.

    In December 2014, American stock wasa directly proportional with rub. But in January 2015, it became different. Only a tiny vibration of rub can cause a great vibration of American stock.

    Just now Russia has decreased the bank interest, and the value of the rub accumulated inside the people is decreased. As a result, when interest rate decreased, Russian people sold rub to buy gold. Before that, Russia notified this event to America, so that America sent gold to the market, decreased the gold price from 1300 to 1250, so that Russian people can buy gold with low price.

    And in the future, when gold price rises, Russia will sell gold with high price. Very Happy Very Happy

    However, the U.S. cannot sustain these blows for long. Russian foreign exchange is more than able to buy all the American gold reserve. Not to mentions that other BRICS allies of Russia, like China has a foreign exchange 10 times more than America.

    Days ago, the West tell that they might expell Russia from SWIFT. Mevedev responded: if you dare to do that we Russia will pay back equally. Just try it.

    But this world has already know how severe the payback is.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:01 am

    Austin wrote:I was expecting a 50 % Fall in FDI to some where around $30 billion but 19 is a drastic fall


    Majority of Russias FDI (something like 70 or more %) was in Energy. It sucks it is gone, but energy will now be pretty much Russian at this point. As it will not bring in a huge amount of money, the other fdi is going to parts of the market where it matters (Manufacturing).
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    George1

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  George1 on Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:03 am

    Anti-Russian Sanctions Lead to Marked Growth in Domestic Tourism

    Domestic tourism has grown significantly amid Western sanctions, a declining exchange rate, and the growth of patriotism among Russians, says Oleg Safonov, the head of the country's Federal Agency for Tourism.

    MOSCOW, January 30 (Sputnik) — Oleg Safonov, the head of Russia's Federal Agency for Tourism, told RIA Novosti news agency in an interview on Thursday that Western sanctions have had a significant positive affect on the growth of domestic tourism.

    Accounting for an increasingly unfavorable exchange rate, and the increasingly tense international political situation, Safonov noted that these two factors have provided "for a tremendous opportunity for growth in domestic tourism. This is confirmed by the increase in the share of domestic tourism by 30-40 percent."

    Speaking with the agency at the Fitur Tourism Fair in Madrid, Safonov explained that the growth in domestic tourism and the decline in foreign travel "is partly due to a rise in prices for outgoing tourism; people have begun to travel more inside the country." He noted that in 2014, tourism abroad declined by between 15-20 percent, most of the decline occurring in the last quarter of the year, with a decline of only 4 percent seen in the three quarters up to September.

    However, Safonov noted that finances are really only half the story.

    "An important role has also been played by peoples' increased level of patriotism. As you know, a series of completely illegal sanctions have been introduced in relation to Russia, and it is completely logical for people to conclude that when sanctions have been introduced against their country, this means that they are not welcome in the countries that imposed these sanctions." Additionally, Safonov cites the role of violations of Russian tourists' rights abroad in discouraging would-be tourists, noting instances of people being denied hotel reservations, service in restaurants, or entry to ski resorts.

    "Despite the fact that everyone understands that tourism is outside politics, for many tourism has become an element of politics and of political influence," the agency head noted. "And so many Russians have made the decision not to travel abroad, and to go on holiday in Russia instead."

    In view of sanctions and the growth in patriotism, Safonov cited the example of Crimea, noting that while the Federal Agency for Tourism had hoped that three million people would visit the peninsula in 2014, over 4.1 million ended up doing so, leaving behind over 107 billion rubles ($1.53 billion US). In comparison, when Crimea was part of Ukraine, only about one million Russians visited the area annually, despite an open border and favorably low prices.

    Safonov explained that one of his agency's goals at present is to convince regional leaders on the importance of tourism to economic development as a whole, leading as it does to growth of small and medium-sized businesses, and to improvements in the areas of transport, communications, food services, agriculture, and construction, and dozens of other areas. "If the head of every region comes to understand that he has a chance [to achieve] economic development through tourism, his region will see investment, new jobs, and growing incomes," Safonov noted.

    "We are only at the beginning of the path to solving our basic problem [in increasing domestic tourism]," the tourism head noted. "We have excellent prospects, and it is necessary only to implement them. Today, the share of Russian tourism in the world is less than one percent –this is an extremely low figure. Baikal, Kamchatka –these are unique places, but the number of tourists to these places is negligible. We need to compete on the world tourism market," Safonov explained. He added that Russia needs "to work on the continuous improvement of the quality of tourism services, including the experience of our foreign colleagues."

    Safonov told RIA Novosti that even the collapse of over two dozen Russian tour companies offering tours abroad last year had its positive effects, clearing the market of operators using unfair practices and "cleansing" it of margin operators. He noted that the New Year holidays were comparatively calm: "There were no negative incidents or the suspension of services from among any of the [tour providers]. Many experts had predicted a second wave of problems for the tourism market, but it can be argued with a high degree of confidence that this will not occur; the market has already been 'cleansed'."

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150130/1017573715.html#ixzz3QO78LJGv
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  GarryB on Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:04 am

    Russian's savings got fucked in 1991, they got fucked in 1998, and they recently got fucked again.

    Only fucked if you make the mistake of converting now... in fact assuming the value will recover eventually now is the time to buy a few million roubles so that when the rouble recovers you can make a killing.

    You only get screwed if you try to convert your savings in roubles into dollars now... when the value recovers you have dollars...

    Of course currency speculation is a gamble too.

    If my savings were in roubles I would just keep adding to them and wait till the rouble recovers.
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:57 pm

    TR1 wrote:
    kvs wrote:

    I wonder if the clowns who spew about the ruble FX rate drop would care to explain how the ruble "collapse"
    is intrinsically bad for Russia.   It dropped much more between 1998 and 1999 and we all know the rest of the
    story.

    Do you not understand the effect a ruble collapse has on a large proportion of the population, and especially those with savings?

    Russian's savings got fucked in 1991, they got fucked in 1998, and they recently got fucked again.

    They got fucked because there were no capital and exchange controls. Under Yeltsin, when he privatized the central bank and got rid of the capital and exchange controls the Rouble hyperinflated over night. A nationalized central bank plus full blown capital and exchange controls should prevent such scenarios indefinitely.

    Vann7

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Vann7 on Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:40 pm

    [quote="magnumcromagnon"][quote="TR1"]
    kvs wrote:
    They got fucked because there were no capital and exchange controls. Under Yeltsin, when he privatized the central bank and got rid of the capital and exchange controls the Rouble hyperinflated over night. A nationalized central bank plus full blown capital and exchange controls should prevent such scenarios indefinitely.

    Also because Russia 90s collapse they do not have enough reserves , to counter the problem. in that time their bank reserves were in the $10 to $20 billions , today they have near $400 billions USD. and probably more using other funds.. The Russian economy now is 10x times bigger it was in the 90s. And there was no CHINA help at that time... today CHINA with 4 trillions surplus reserves will be ready to Russia IF there is a need.. and last but not least.. Russia debt is only 10% of its GDP.

    So there is no chance the 90s will return again.. for RUssia..this looks more like the 2008.. but with much easier ride.
    Thanks to the much more stronger economy that Russia have. when Putin came to power in 2000 , US and Saudi Arabia crashed oil to $20 per barrel.. to collapse again Russia economy..and then Russia had the Chechen war.. on top. What some do not see.. is that the Cold war never ended .. between US and Russia.. and US have always tried
    to sabotage Russia economy... whenever they have the chance.. because the weaker is Russia economy , the less submarines they can make.. and more weaker its investments in defense.
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    flamming_python

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  flamming_python on Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:03 am

    TR1 wrote:
    kvs wrote:

    I wonder if the clowns who spew about the ruble FX rate drop would care to explain how the ruble "collapse"
    is intrinsically bad for Russia.   It dropped much more between 1998 and 1999 and we all know the rest of the
    story.

    Do you not understand the effect a ruble collapse has on a large proportion of the population, and especially those with savings?

    Russian's savings got fucked in 1991, they got fucked in 1998, and they recently got fucked again.

    That's simplistic reasoning.

    What do people save for? Property of course.

    Have property prices risen over the past year? Nope. Actually, there is talk now that they may just decrease.
    2014 by the way - was a record year for housing construction in Russia; the amount of housing built last year has not been seen for nearly 30 years; I belive 1987 was the last year where the amount of housing construction exceeded last year's figures.
    2015 is slated to see an even higher record.
    With such dynamics, I wouldn't be worried about inflation in the housing market at all; even while inflation is taking place in the rest of the economy.

    So people's savings won't be affected. What will be affected, and what is being affected; is their short-term spending power and disposable income - particularly for food (prices have inflated more than for other goods due to the combination of rouble fall and sanctions on European producers), certain types of consumer goods (especially those that are imported from abroad, ordered direct from China or made in Russia but with a high amount of foreign parts), and holidays abroad (rouble devaluation has made it a lot more expensive).

    There. That's that. In terms of savings, it's a long-term thing anyway as GazB said; all the chances that the rouble could gain again when the oil price picks up. In the mean time, salaries have been indexed for inflation and devaluation, so now is the perfect time to earn.
    The only people who would really be affected in terms of savings, are those saving up for buying property abroad. Oligarchs and co. - I'm not going to cry a river over their misfortune that's for sure. Actually if they lose all their money altogether, that would make me a happy man.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:29 am

    why is rouble not getting stronger even tho the price of oil got stronger 6-7 % past 2 days , its still on 69 plus , perhaps the drop in interest rate of 2% taking its tool
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    TheArmenian

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  TheArmenian on Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:46 pm

    @ Flaming Python

    Excellent points presented in an excellent manner. My vote for your post.


    @ Austin

    You are probably right (Interest drop annulling the effect of higher oil) at least partly.
    Better to wait and see when markets open on Monday to make more accurate conclusions.

    In my opinion, low oil prices cannot stay low for more than a few months. Fundamental market dynamics will sooner rather than later bring the price up again. The recent barrel price gain may be an indication of that.



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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:11 pm



    How to churn out anti-Russian propaganda. The anglophone media knows its audience will not search Russian
    language sources.

    If anyone wants to know what the purpose of RT is, then the above video gives you the idea. It is counter-propaganda
    and is necessary for Russia to fight the information war being waged by NATO, led by Washington.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Feb 01, 2015 4:02 pm

    But RT does a bad job at it, besides Max Keiser whom is brillaint when it comes to economics (he should be Russias finance minister for crying out loud).

    I was hoping Sputnik news was going to be another alternative to RT, but instead, they are like Ria and Itar Tass, just rehashing news and no real decent opeds (well, Itar has an oped every couple of months). There is very little in terms of such media in Russia that gears towards orher countries. Need alternatives to RT.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:24 pm

    Elvira: Talk about the default - exaggeration

    http://www.rg.ru/2015/02/01/nabiullina-site.html

    "Well, what can be defaulted at such a low level of public external debt?" - Asks Chairman of the financial mega-regulator, commenting predictions of Western experts on the volatile situation in the Russian economy and the implications for the country within two years.

    "And even corporate foreign debt in 2014 fell somewhere in the hundred billion dollars, that is, companies have reduced their foreign borrowings, payable on that amount - judged Nabiullina. - Why can they do this? Because basically it kompanii- Exporters who have export earnings. " As a result - all the speculation that Russia in the next two years would default, it is "to put it mildly, an exaggeration," she concluded.

    Earlier, a similar statement was made ​​by Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev, who recalled that "short-term debt of Russian companies is much lower, which means that much less risk of default and the entry into force of various covenants."

    In the meantime, the monetary authorities hand in hand with the government and other agencies continue to struggle with the main enemy - inflation. "We now make predictions, and they show that inflation will peak in the second quarter of this year," - said the head of the Central Bank. In the summer it will go to slide and come to a more familiar one-digit level already in 2016.

    Significant role that life has become more expensive in Russia accelerated played "disposable factors", the effect of which will be felt for a long time, warned Nabiullina. And the fact that the exchange rate after the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank from 17 to 15 per cent went down, was expected. "This shows that the rates affect the currency market, but it has an impact not only our interest rate decision, but the price of oil, which at the end of this week, a few grew, - she said. - And we do not see more of factors that will affect the depreciation of the ruble, as prerequisites for the strengthening of a lot more than to loosen. "

    Among the factors that are believed by experts, cease to affect the economy of Russia, Nabiullina mentioned decline in the international rating of the country. As a rule, this has an impact on the stock and financial markets, but "we can not say that the rating determines somehow the global economic situation." There are important other factors that say about the level of unemployment and the opportunity to continue the development of domestic production. "This is a global, fundamental things, and we need to pay attention on them. And then the ratings will go up," - concluded the Chairman of the Central Bank.

    On Monday, the international agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the sovereign rating of the Russian Federation to the speculative grade BB + with a negative outlook. However, experts agree that much of a problem for the market it will not create as the decision was expected. For example, last year the S & P first of the "Big Three" in April lowered Russia's rating to BBB-, while Fitch and Moody's have resorted to such measures only in January.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:25 pm

    Rossiyskaya Gazeta" published government anti-crisis plan

       

    • Events Plan is estimated at 2,332 trillion rubles.

         One point is already made: from 1 February held indexation of pensions by 11.4 percent, that is, the rate of inflation in 2014.

         Most of the expenditure budget for this year want to cut by 10 percent.

         Expenditure on social commitments will be increased.

         Banks will trillion rubles from the Deposit Insurance Agency, with the obligation to use them for long-term lending business.

         Parents are allowed to take 20 thousand rubles in cash from matkapitala.

         The state will help those who can not pay the mortgage, including foreign exchange.

         In Russia there will be a "social mortgage". This is for those who are on the level of their income will not be able to buy a home in the new economy. They can provide preferential interest rates.

         Those who have lost their jobs or can stay without it, too, is planned to help. To allocate money for public works and advanced vocational training.

         In terms of 60 points, for many of these agencies should prepare draft laws or government regulations. Timing is very tight: the end of February - early March.

         To prevent the shortage of medicines, the Russian manufacturers allow to raise prices. But once that is not expensive preparations every day.

         And support those who are entitled to receive state social assistance in the form of social services. It will not change. What would have been an expensive drug, even foreign-made changes in its procurement will not.

         Air and railway tickets, too, will not give wildly cheaper. The rate of value added tax for domestic transport fell to 10 percent. Earlier VAT in this area was 18 percent.
         This will create a bank of "bad debts" to support important for the economy of companies, who can not cope with financial problems.

         For businesses, acting as executors of state contracts will not apply penalties if they do not keep within deadlines.

         Will double the marginal revenue. Mikroorganizatsy for up to 120 million rubles for small businesses - 800 million, for an average - to 2 billion. And then more companies will be able to qualify for benefits.

         Regions were given the right to reduce the tax rate for a single tax on imputed income for small businesses with 15 to 7.5 percent. And the income tax from 6 to 1 per cent for the simplified tax system. This will significantly reduce the tax burden.

         For individual entrepreneurs simplify the process of registration and reporting, all will be in the "single window".

         Two-year tax holiday for newly registered individual entrepreneurs to extend to the scope of industrial and domestic services. Previously, it was only on social services.

         In 2015, the budget allocated an additional 50 billion rubles to support agricultural enterprises.


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Austin on Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:49 pm

    Russian GDP to Fall Three Percent, Inflation to Stand at 12 Percent in 2015


    MOSCOW, January 31 (Sputnik) — Russia's Ministry of Economic Development has revised economic forecast for 2015 and expects country's gross domestic product (GPD) to shrink by three percent and inflation to hit 12 percent with oil prices at $50 a barrel, the ministry's head said Saturday.

    "We have issued a forecast for 2015, which is based on the current market prices, that is around $50 per a barrel for the entire year. At the same time, the consensus forecasts are indicating higher rates, but we take the most conservative figures into account. This means quite significant GDP decline of three percent," Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukaev told reporters.

    The minister added that inflation forecast for 2015 was worsened from 7.5 percent to 12 percent, while capital flight from Russia is estimated to be $115 billion.

    Capital investment — cash invested in firms' tangible assets such as building and infrastructure — was likely to fall by 13 percent this year and retail sales by 8 percent.

    Earlier this month, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that with the average oil price at $50 per barrel in 2015 Russia could lose around 3 trillion rubles ($43 billion) in revenues.

    Russia, a country heavily reliant on revenue from oil exports, is currently experiencing significant economic problem due to a sharp decline in global oil prices, which dropped dramatically since June 2014.

    Another reason for economic downturn in Russia is the sanctions imposed by the West against the country over its alleged participation in Ukrainian conflict, a claim that Moscow has repeatedly denied.

    The ruble has lost approximately half its value against the US dollar since mid-2014.

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/business/20150131/1017595142.html#ixzz3QWLARuxF

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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:35 pm

    So what are the standing predictions so far?
    - Silunov: No growth or a little contraction
    -ukulele (whatever his name is): -3% to -1000%
    - some no name from US: -10% to infinity%
    -IMF / World Bank: 0% to -5%

    So many predictions. I think someone in rus gov said it best - we cant predict it.
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    Hannibal Barca

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  Hannibal Barca on Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:56 pm

    Take mine: Inflation 9% Growth -0.8%
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #3

    Post  kvs on Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:50 pm

    Note how the western pundits are trying to make it look like Russia has Ukraine's financial problems. But
    they keep quite about Ukraine itself. It is not physically possible for Russia to default. I have no idea
    how Ukraine is still afloat. It must be getting a flow of money under the table somewhere.

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