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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    Post  kvs on Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:48 am

    AbsoluteZero wrote:China launches swaps and forwards between the yuan and the Russian ruble starting Monday.

    guess this is a good first move to step away from the USD, but why the heck is Belarus insisting on trading only with USD with Russia? that kinda defeats the purpose of the EEU, anyways I think Russia is also planning the same currency trade deal with India. Now lets see how Washington will try to attempt to sabotage this Russo-Sino-Indo economic partnership


    Lukashenko apparently wants to experience the same fate as Yanukovich. Lukashenko is a two bit "red director" whose
    skill at governing is authoritarianism. Interesting how there has been little negative coverage of this dictator over the last
    few years. Very suspicious. In contrast, Putin is actually having to act as the leader of a law governed democratic state and
    gets a sea of hate spew directed at him.

    I hope Russia is prepared for some Belorussian Maidan. I am sure that NATO is preparing one. Belarus cannot be allowed
    to suffer the fate of Ukraine.
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    Post  AbsoluteZero on Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:54 am

     
    I hope Russia is prepared for some Belorussian Maidan.  I am sure that NATO is preparing one.  Belarus cannot be allowed
    to suffer the fate of Ukraine.

    Yeah, maybe immediately send in the tanks before NATO right sector forces takes over, and use the same tactics and brutality to root out all NATO agents, NATO can scream all they want, but their thugs use the same methods too
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    Post  Vann7 on Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:51 am

    sepheronx wrote:http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/769865

    What a dolt.



    Oh really baka? I thought your optics sucked so Russian made ones were used and your food stuff was carrying goods from sanctioned countries to Russia.

    Hope he ends up out of power soon.


    Why Baka is allowing sanctioned food to enter Russia?  What can he gain in doing that?
    I think he dislike the west as much as Putin.. his problem might be to be too opportunistic .

    In other news. i was very much observing today on monday dec 29 , how the ruble vs Dollar was trading..
    and pretty much looks the currency wars is not going to end any time soon..  Not an expert in wallstreet or economy.. but if you observe the graph of dollars vs ruble on monday ,i noticed that whenever there was a jump in favor of the ruble ,a counter jump followed of higher magnitude in favor of dollar.. Basically in whole last weekened Ruble was trading at @53  vs 1 Dollar.. but on monday for no reason ,since no new sanctions or no new oil prices changing..is now back dangerously moving to the 60s again.. is now trading at 58 vs 1 dollar..  and when the graph move to 57 in one jump.. it returns again to 58 2 minutes later.  It seems the west have a good team of speculators well coordinating the attacks on the ruble..    


    Im not sure yet if it is possible to win in a currency war against USA..when they control the rules of the game.For example US pretty much and literary at gun point using blackmail as they did with france mistrals ,can force any business in America or Europe and middle east allies to help their currency fight the ruble by buying dollars and ditching the ruble.  And if they notice the Ruble is gaining too much and weakening their dollar.. they simply remove Russia from wallstreet so they cannot compete with them. ?

    For me the only Sad thing is to see Russia depending so much in western technology and waiting too long to
    become self suficient with their technology.  They should be using nothing but Russian and BRICS products ,and limiting the trade with the west to just fashion ,and luxury stuff for their unhappy elite who wants more variety. and do all their technology at home and entertainment equipment ie.. home theaters ,computers and sound equipment at home. to a quality not inferior to what is produced in the west. They have done it already in space.. surpassing the quality of what americans produce... thanks to decades on focusing on that technology.. but they should not stop there..  i will love to see Russia becoming very popular worldwide in civilians technology for civilians daily life. Technology for building a house to technology for hospitals too.

    I mean.. is completely stupid Putin spend so much money on modernazing their nukes.. thats not going to help them in any way to defend their economy or to become an attractive nation to investors. IF Putin invested the money they spend on Mistrals and modernizing their nukes.. on developing research for technology for completely ending their need of Windows operating systems and the software on its office..they will have some very impressive computer industry for business and entertainment too.

    I really hope that this new chapter of super cold war drive Russia to become far more self sufficient and nearly get rid of their dependence of western technology..  Companies like Microsoft , Apple and Intel ,completely replaced and develop a software industry that rivals anything the west produce but also develop their own internet that covers through satellites the entire world. they can pull that with the help of China and India and brazil . It will be very cheap if not completely free and very fast too. that will be a big game changing for US dominance in the world.



    Last edited by Vann7 on Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:53 am; edited 3 times in total
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:13 am

    If Dupeashenko keeps this up, he'll end up like Gaddaffi! Unfortunately not all CIS leaders are as smart as Nazarbayev.
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    Post  AbsoluteZero on Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:30 am

    If he gets kicked out, NATO might find it as an opportunity to start Belarussian Maidan and install their puppet, it must be made sure that his successor will be pro EEU
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    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:55 am

    Looking at recent Obama statement and the most recent linked below , the falling in oil price is not just over supply issue but a long term strategic plan of US to reduce Oil Price to increase economic Hard Ship and Challenge of Russia.

    Its a well thought out plan between Saudi and US to gradually reduce Oil Price.

    I think a $40 Oil Price is quite possible in 2015 , As Obama says its a patience game.

    Obama Says US ‘Strategic Patience’ With Russia Yields Results
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    Post  AbsoluteZero on Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:09 am

    So its an economic war then initiated by the US, Russia must find ways to hit back hard on the US economy and hopefully bring it crashing down
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    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:43 am

    Seems like Finance Ministry has done its homework if oil prices fall remain to $60 GDP will fall 4-5 % if $40 then 9 %

    Russia prepares new stress scenario with oil price at $40
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    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:51 am

    I think for 2015 if prices of Oil stay at $60 then the Rouble should flow between 60-65 and not 54 as Finance Minister targets

    And if Oil Reaches $40 then Rouble would be at 80-85
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    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:50 am

    Growth of oil reserves in Russia for the year amounted to 550 million tonnes

    http://ria.ru/economy/20141230/1040859366.html&usg=ALkJrhjVTMiHGAWpcYAilOW4UI2hpXI-aA#ixzz3NNR2YWLa

    The growth of Russian gas reserves at the end of the year and the first quarter, according to preliminary data, amounted to 900 billion cubic meters.

    MOSCOW, December 30 - RIA Novosti. The increase in Russian oil reserves at the end of the year and the first quarter, according to preliminary data, amounted to 550 million tons and 900 billion cubic meters of gas, the Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Sergei Donskoi.

    "Despite the difficult situation, still would like to otfiksirovat that the geological industry this year has maintained the pace of development. In particular, if we talk about the results of this year, according to preliminary operational accounting, we have until the end of the year and at the beginning I quarter will be still further clarification, we have oil - 550 million tons of reserves growth for gas - 900 billion cubic meters, "- said Don on meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    The Head of State said, given these data, taking into account the Bovanenkovo ​​field. Don replied in the affirmative.

    "And for gas condensate - 100 million tons - the minister added. - In principle, it just will allow, firstly, to fill the production, which this year will develop, in general, at the end of the year, of course, there will be refined all figures. But finally have something that will be delivered in the balance and already approved, next year we have otfiksiruem in the first quarter of next year. "

    According to Don, a similar situation exists for solid minerals. "This applies to diamonds, coal, salt and many of our major solid minerals. Here, too, we will ensure simple reproduction, somewhere will be expanded," - he said.

    According to the Ministry of Energy, at the end of 2014, oil production will amount to 526.6 million tons, gas - 641 billion cubic meters. Thus, the increase in reserves in 2014 exceeded oil production 1.04 times, gas - by 1.4 times.


    Yamal project is the largest on the Yamal Peninsula. Explored and estimated gas reserves there amount to 4.9 trillion cubic meters. Industrial development of the field began in 2012. This second gas field at the Bovanenkovo ​​field, launched by the December 22 Putin will allow "Gazprom" to increase gas production by 1.5 times - up to 90 billion cubic meters per year. The company expects that within three years the gas production will reach 115 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and in the future - up to 140 billion.

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    Post  Werewolf on Tue Dec 30, 2014 1:25 pm

    Solution is easy, send blackops into Saudi Arabia and exterminate a few of the heads which a brown from the USofA hole and see if they still want to remain production high, if they want war they can have it.
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    Post  kvs on Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:49 pm

    Werewolf wrote:Solution is easy, send blackops into Saudi Arabia and exterminate a few of the heads which a brown from the USofA hole and see if they still want to remain production high, if they want war they can have it.

    Absolutely no need. Obummer and his sheik butt monkeys are full of gas.

    OPEC has no spare capacity. The EIA and IEA insist that Saudi Arabia has 2 million barrels per day of spare capacity
    but nobody has seen any evidence of this unicorn. It is also quite funny how the spare capacity never changes with time.
    I was seeing the same number bandied about over 10 years ago. It is BS. Saudi Arabia is a dead man walking in terms
    of oil production. It's crown jewel, which accounts for half its production, Ghawar is going to collapse in the near future.

    The collapse of Ghawar will be similar to the collapse of the Yibal in Oman. It is all about the physics. Water is pumped
    into these reservoirs to maintain the pressure. As long as water is less than 45% of the total oil + water volume you get
    oil to flow through the rock matrix. The fluid in the reservoir is an inverse emulsion where water forms droplets suspended
    in oil and the oil has continuity. As soon as the water approaches 50% there is a catastrophic transition (phase change) to
    a standard emulsion where you have oil droplets suspended in water. The problem is that in this regime there is no oil
    flow any more. The water flows through the rock matrix to the well head but the oil droplets are trapped thanks to the
    huge difference in viscosity. In the final analysis over 50% of the oil in any of these Saudi reservoirs can never be extracted.

    Ghawar has been exploited since 1951. It is 63 years old and cannot be made to last another 60. There is a book by
    Matthew Simmons called Twilight in the Desert that gives good evidence that this field will collapse in the short term.

    The source of the increase in global oil production in the last few years has been the USA. OPEC is stalled and non-OPEC
    minus the USA is declining. The surge in US production is due to high oil prices and the development of expensive plays
    such as the Bakken and Eagle Ford. These deposits have been known about for decades but were not exploited because
    of costs.

    So if Obummer wants to destroy Russia by keeping the oil price low, he will succeed in shutting off the only excess production
    on the planet. In other words, he will cause the oil price to jump and jump by a lot in the coming year. Perhaps the USA
    can print up some of its precious fiat (the one many Russians are dying to get thanks to their "wooden" ruble) and just
    subsidize the oil producers to keep the house of cards from falling. Then Russia must take emergency measures to secure
    itself.
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    Post  AbsoluteZero on Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:23 pm

    I think the US intention is something like an economic blitzkrieg, which is to weaken and crash the RU economy in a short period of low oil price, I think they are well aware that they cannot keep prices at this level, by the time oil prices go up they hope to severely damage RUs economy
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:27 pm

    Austin wrote:Seems like Finance Ministry has done its homework if oil prices fall remain to $60 GDP will fall 4-5 % if $40 then 9 %

    Russia prepares new stress scenario with oil price at $40

    I dont understand how oil only accounting for a portion of the 18% of gdp, and it accounted more in 2008, would do worst with oil at $40 now than it was back in 2009. Either someone has botched numbers or someone is making things up. I imagine GDP decline may be at that range though if currency value is added to that. But which part of GDP will drop? Nominal or PPP? I imagine PPP will sat about the same if the Ruble drops with it.
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:32 pm

    AbsoluteZero wrote:I think the US intention is something like an economic blitzkrieg, which is to weaken and crash the RU economy in a short period of low oil price, I think they are well aware that they cannot keep prices at this level, by the time oil prices go up they hope to severely damage RUs economy

    It is pointless though. All one has to do is look at Iran from periods before sanctions to after sanctions.

    If Russias reliance on oil and gas is 18% of gdp but they have a signed contract for x amount of gas for x amount total for the next x amount of years, then it is about increase in volume, not decrease. They will still end up with the same amount of money in the end. That is the agreements between Russia, Turkey, China and India.

    As well, Russia does have other markets. Simply put, "severly damaging" its economy would fall on Russias own hands, not by US.
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 30, 2014 3:55 pm

    http://www.finmarket.ru/news/3907300

    See, this is where things get screwed up. According to this, manufacturing and alike is down, yet rosstat says that manufacturing is to grow by 2.4%. So who is correct? As well, it proves contrary to what is done in other countries. Irans manufacturing exploded during sanctions because of growing domestic demand. Since Russian products are rarely exported, and domestic market getting snuffed out from foreign goods, then demand should still be high. But business confidence is low? How is that possible? Something is all f****** wrong.

    PMI down? Yeah right. HSBC and finmarket.ru are lying.

    Edit. For some reason they added service sector to same as manufacturer, which is wrong to do as noth are two different markets. So service sector drives down average. Go figure.
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 30, 2014 4:09 pm

    Expert: Barack Obama is misinformed about the economic situation in Russi Оригинал новости RT на русском: http://russian.rt.com/article/67051
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:40 pm

    http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/12/30/2177

    Does this mean Russian economy in 2014 contracted by 0.5%? Or does this mean GDP growth of Russia stands at 0.6% this year? Dont understand the methods of measurements here. First they say contraction in nov of 0.5% but jan-nov means gdp grew by 0.6%. So does this mean after the 0.5% gdp decline in nov, growth is only 0.6% so far?
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:46 pm

    http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/12/30/2180
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    Post  kvs on Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:47 pm

    sepheronx wrote:http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/12/30/2177

    Does this mean Russian economy in 2014 contracted by 0.5%? Or does this mean GDP growth of Russia stands at 0.6% this year? Dont understand the methods of measurements here. First they say contraction in nov of 0.5% but jan-nov means gdp grew by 0.6%. So does this mean after the 0.5% gdp decline in nov, growth is only 0.6% so far?

    This what happens when instead of plotting a simple graph they start using sloppy prose to describe a simple data point. The 0.5% is an annualized drop, or in other
    words what the economy would shrink if one multiplied the fall in November by 12. A rather pointless piece of information without context. It does not imply that the
    November drop will result in the GDP shrinking for 2014.
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 30, 2014 5:53 pm

    That is what I thought. So GDP growth still stands at 0.6%?
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    Post  kvs on Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:57 pm

    sepheronx wrote:That is what I thought. So GDP growth still stands at 0.6%?

    I would think less since November was a drop. The December figures are not out yet. But I doubt there will be enough of a drop
    in November-December to offset the 0.6 increase in January-October. So 2014 will be net positive. Not large but no real recession.

    Things were much more dire in 2008-9.
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:59 pm

    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:That is what I thought. So GDP growth still stands at 0.6%?

    I would think less since November was a drop.  The December figures are not out yet.   But I doubt there will be enough of a drop
    in November-December to offset the 0.6 increase in January-October.   So 2014 will be net positive.   Not large but no real recession.

    Things were much more dire in 2008-9.  

    Well, the 0.6% was from Jan - Nov, so november was included. All rests on December. So far, not looking too good as they say manufacturing and services are down. As per HSBC. So it may be either no growth this year or very little. Unless something drastic happens.
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:29 pm

    My bet is that oil prices will not drop below 50$
    Already oil vaults around the world start shutting down.
    Can I proved wrong? Yes, but it will be my first in years.
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    Post  sepheronx on Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:28 pm

    Hannibal Barca wrote:My bet is that oil prices will not drop below 50$
    Already oil vaults around the world start shutting down.
    Can I proved wrong? Yes, but it will be my first in years.

    Yes, I also heard the same. As wrll, saudis have largest deficit in history.

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