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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    Post  Regular on Sun Dec 28, 2014 5:12 am

    Russia wants to keep influence in Ukraine so it has to do such moves. Crimea get electricity from Ukraine too. Sometimes they have blackouts, but they are still getting it
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    Post  sepheronx on Sun Dec 28, 2014 5:16 am

    kvs wrote:http://twitter.com/swarog09/status/548771413025624064/photo/1

    Kudrin with assorted other well known filth planning a Maidan in Russia.

    Kudrin needs a one way ticket to NATO.

    No different than any previous attempts. They hosted protests in the past. Good thing is, Russia also has people on the Putin and Co side who protest against these people and also the idiotic Nazis jump in against both sides and then the beatdown commences. Even if a shooter appears, it wouldnt take long before the shooter gets shot and the mvd goes on the beat down.
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    Post  Viktor on Sun Dec 28, 2014 2:58 pm

    par far wrote:Russia is giving coal to Ukraine, that is just plain stupid(unless it is to Eastern Ukraine).

    Who said Russia is just giving in. Its selling but without prepayment.

    Report of unprepaid fuel supplies to Ukraine from Russia was hackers’ hoax
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    Post  mutantsushi on Sun Dec 28, 2014 8:31 pm

    Well I believe the Novorussians specifically requested Russia to not provide coal to Kiev to replace what they would normally sell to Kiev,
    what with Kiev refusing to deal with Novorussians/give money to them in exchange for coal.
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    Post  Viktor on Sun Dec 28, 2014 8:42 pm

    mutantsushi wrote:Well I believe the Novorussians specifically requested Russia to not provide coal to Kiev to replace what they would normally sell to Kiev,
    what with Kiev refusing to deal with Novorussians/give money to them in exchange for coal.

    It can be easily settled with Russia just buying Novorossian coal with the same money Ukraine provided Russia for they own coal. Very Happy
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    Post  flamming_python on Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:22 am

    Viktor wrote:
    mutantsushi wrote:Well I believe the Novorussians specifically requested Russia to not provide coal to Kiev to replace what they would normally sell to Kiev,
    what with Kiev refusing to deal with Novorussians/give money to them in exchange for coal.

    It can be easily settled with Russia just buying Novorossian coal with the same money Ukraine provided Russia for they own coal. Very Happy

    Main problem with that is that the Ukraine doesn't have any money to provide for anyone's coal Very Happy
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    Post  collegeboy16 on Mon Dec 29, 2014 1:35 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    Main problem with that is that the Ukraine doesn't have any money to provide for anyone's coal  Very Happy
    not even santa has enough coal to supply all these clowns... they would have to cry some more Twisted Evil
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:44 pm

    Seems the ruble is dropping in value again. 56Rub/usd all after the concept that gdp contracted 0.5% in november. Such news announcements cause fluctuation in ruble value. Making it one of the most volitile currencies. Maybe floating it wasnt such a good idea. Apparently since today, Russians picked up $30B in USD in Russia by giving up rubles. This may lead to a real currency crisis funded by their own people. Retards.
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    Post  kvs on Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:58 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Seems the ruble is dropping in value again. 56Rub/usd all after the concept that gdp contracted 0.5% in november. Such news announcements cause fluctuation in ruble value. Making it one of the most volitile currencies. Maybe floating it wasnt such a good idea. Apparently since today, Russians picked up $30B in USD in Russia by giving up rubles. This may lead to a real currency crisis funded by their own people. Retards.

    I agree, these dollar buyers are retards. They have no concept in their tiny brains how the economy and currencies work. They
    actually think that some foreign fiat is the equivalent of gold.

    But the Russian government is trying frustrate these retards. It imposed grain export restrictions since a lot of resellers
    were trying to sell Russian wheat for dollars abroad instead of selling it on the domestic market. As I said once before this
    sort of behaviour should be treated as criminal. The dollar should not be allowed to circulate inside Russia and people
    that have a pathological need for euros and dollars should pack their bags and move to the EU or the USA. Russia
    does not need a de facto 5th column composed of such idiots.

    There should be export licensing in Russia. All individuals and businesses who want to export for dollars should not have
    that chance without restrictions. I guess if individual morons want to convert their ruble savings into dollars then they should
    still have the freedom to do that. It does not make much difference to the Russian economy. But having Russian agricultural
    production diverted to foreign markets cannot be tolerated.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:02 pm

    Or, impose a tax on currency conversion, making it even more expensive to purchase foreign currency. Or let the ruble crash and then save it by tying to gold or something, thus making everyones dollars they converted, useless afterwards. If they cry about it, tell them directly it was their own fault.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:14 pm

    http://m.ria.ru/economy/20141229/1040729321.html

    Growth in manufacturing in 2014 is at 2.8% so far in Russia. Manufacturing fell in november compared to last years, but overall, saw a growth.
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    Post  kvs on Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:55 pm

    I think the current "disaster" in Russia should be compared to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Russia's GDP dropped by a significant amount.
    The banks had to get bailed out. It took a couple of years for the pre-recession level to be recovered. I do not recall there being the sort
    of hysterical coverage of Russia's economy back then. There is way too much propaganda being spewed about the current situation in
    Russia.

    The most important aspect for me, is that I do not see the Russian economy being damaged by the currency exchange rate fall and the
    sanctions in a manner that merits the doom and gloom. The nearly 3% growth in manufacturing is basically a contradiction to the narrative
    being spread by various media outlets (including those in Russia). Manufacturing would be collapsing together with the rest of the economy
    if Russia was as vulnerable to import limitations (due to price or sanctions). Instead we see active import substitution and hence growth. This
    underscores the fact that the Russian economy has deep capacity for adaptation and future growth. It is not a shallow banana republic export
    economy that can be knocked down with some sanctions and Sorosite currency sabotage.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:09 pm

    Apparently biggest hit at manufacturing industry has been automotive where ford, gm and alike have cut production by a large amount. Next year avtovaz will increase production. I think november fall in manufacturing has been automotove.

    Apparently the other sector to cause gdp decline in november is construction. Construction fell nearly 25% since last year. Guess they will have to do major renovations in infrastructure to get construction up.

    Apparently, S&P lowering rate (according to ukelele or whatever his name is) will make Russia lose $20-30B. And tthe Russian citizens being dumb and buying USD will account ad $30B capital outflow.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:32 pm

    The major issue are Russians themselves and countries not willing to trade in Rubles. Russians fleeing to buy USD should be publicly ridiculed as well, Belarus should also be sanctioned as they are demanding all trade with Russia in USD as of recent. So much for a partner and ally. These are two other reasons why Ruble would devalue. Oil has gone back up a bit and yet Ruble still fell because what the economics minister talks openly about. If the ruble is so volitile it can go from 51 rubs/usd to 56 in one day, then maybe they shouldnt be talking about doom and gloom cause then they will actually create a panic.

    Currency needs to be regulated and needs to be at a reasonable level like 45 - 50 rub/usd. And the fact there is no currency control during this time is just a joke.

    Good thing is, sberbank is seeing a growth in realistate purchasing of homes (not apartments but actual homes) and is concentrating on mortgages for homes. While they say that they are keeping automotive insurance and loan rates to another company as they see it as falling.

    20 Russian banks are fetting their ratings dropped by S&P in their latest economic attacks on Russia. High time Russia bars S&P in regards to anything Russian business.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 4:58 pm

    Russia cannot play this game anymore. They will need to do sonething, something that wont outright leave them in a bad position like giving up crimea or going to the demands of NATO. Instead, they need to go their own route and stop worrying avout numbers on a sheet.

    Nominal GDP dropping in Russia simply due to currency exchange and lower oil prices, when production and manufacturing is up this year, while still also having a trade surplus. Thus relying on GDP nominal is a joke.

    What they need to do is start announcing (yes, announcing so that value of ruble will climb after the announcement) that there will be a Russian prosperity package or something like it (similar to 5 year plans) where it will be much like SAP2020 but instead for military, it will be in terms of increasing standards of living. Would entail new home buildings (enough of tbese apartments. More single family homes), new transportation hubs, give villages access to large agricultural industries (would make villages actually generate money), more modern roads and a new, bigger highway connecting eastern Russia and western Russia. Make Krasnoyarsk the logistics capital (since it is near center of country) and subsidize agriculture as well to reduce overall food prices. This alone will bring in lots of money as well as increase living standards for average Russians. As for the value of currency, well, either Russians will need to build it themselves, pay more or live without such luxuries.
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    Post  AbsoluteZero on Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:15 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Russia cannot play this game anymore. They will need to do sonething, something that wont outright leave them in a bad position like giving up crimea or going to the demands of NATO. Instead, they need to go their own route and stop worrying avout numbers on a sheet.

    I surely hope they won't give up Crimea because of the sanctions, that would be a huge disaster. I am not an expert in economic matters, but how do you people think this crisis will play out in the future? is there a big chance US will demolish the Russian economy? maybe Putin will find a way to outsmart them. All this hysteria being propagated by America i think is aimed primarily at the Russian people to confuse + frighten them and ultimately cause a panic in the general Russian population, in an event like that it will be easier to put up a color revolution in Russia to destroy it from within and set up a puppet government that kowtows to American demands. Since America seems to be doing everything to crash Russia why don't Putin start escalating the situation in Ukraine? until its fully broken to pieces with a large chunk of it being absorbed by Russia, and tell America to suck it
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:58 pm

    AbsoluteZero wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Russia cannot play this game anymore. They will need to do sonething, something that wont outright leave them in a bad position like giving up crimea or going to the demands of NATO. Instead, they need to go their own route and stop worrying avout numbers on a sheet.

    I surely hope they won't give up Crimea because of the sanctions, that would be a huge disaster. I am not an expert in economic matters, but how do you people think this crisis will play out in the future? is there a big chance US will demolish the Russian economy? maybe Putin will find a way to outsmart them. All this hysteria being propagated by America i think is aimed primarily at the Russian people to confuse + frighten them and ultimately cause a panic in the general Russian population, in an event like that it will be easier to put up a color revolution in Russia to destroy it from within and set up a puppet government that kowtows to American demands. Since America seems to be doing everything to crash Russia why don't Putin start escalating the situation in Ukraine? until its fully broken to pieces with a large chunk of it being absorbed by Russia, and tell America to suck it

    To be honest, I have no idea. Only thing I can think of is there are people who have a lot of power preventing Putin from what he wants to do. There is also the chance that he is letting Ukraine decide for themselves and is ridding the problem by not interfering. Problem is, western countries are pushing Russia around all at the same time, calling them evil. Current methods of measurement of economy, the modern concept of how well a nation does via gdp and what not is a modern concept, very new, but created by the USA and isnt a system Russia can outmanouver or outsmart simply because the system is rigged to begin with. It is this, though, where Russians themselves failed to see how it is played against them, and only those who pander to US, gets to benefit it (individuals, not country as a whole) and many in Russia may think that it can be "them". Look at Ukraine as example: they wanted what western Europe wants that media portrays. The thing is, western europe sold themselves so they have little in terms of a nation they can call their own. Its all ruled by someone from Brussels who is a friend of USA. China on the other hand has found a method to circumvent a lot of this economic blight from US playing dirty, and that is also rigging the market. They were able to do it though, because China has a stranglehold on most of the worlds economy in terms of end goods production to outright owning companies. Russia does not have either or. Russia has their own industrial base, their own manufacturing and her own economy. But, it does not have the influence over other countries like it used to, other than oil and gas, and prices of that is far down, so Russias power has diminished. The other issue too is many Russians, as dumb as they were, grabbed at foreign money and became reliant on it. They needed it for their business. Now things are changing and access to this money is drying up. And Russians themselves dont know what is happening and are scared thinking their beloved iPads will dissapear and they eill never be as rich and happy ad US people are if they dont have that iPad, or Bently or whatever.

    The only thing Russia can do, is do what Iran did. Become self reliant. Nominal GDP of Iran is almost as low as Pakistan. But its Purchasing power is much higher thanks to the fact that they are big manufacturers of their own products. No big Iranian brand can be found outside, but they sure can build cars, trucks, microwaves, fridges, etc. And doing so has really purshed them far in terms of becoming more self reliant. There is still demand for all this superficial stuff like iphones and what not, and they do get them (through India or black market) but people still have jobs, still have money, food on the table and a roof over their heads. Since 2009, Iran has been working on their own comouters and what not (even though its slow and older SPARC processor, it is a start) and eventually, who knows, maybe they will have Iranian made phones, tablets and whatever. This is all Russia will end up having to do. But they got the upper hand where they border china and thus imports are overall cheaper. I am not saying self isolation is key, but the key here is domestic demand (apparently Rosnefts major profit gain was domestic consumption of petrol) and manufacturing for this demand, as well as access to other markets to buy and sell too. Russia so far has China, India and Brazil as markets.
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    Post  TheArmenian on Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:35 pm

    The Rouble decline today is also partly due to the fall of price of oil. Brent oil is now trading at only $57.

    By the way, the Canadian dollar is seeing the same plight of the Russian Rouble on a smaller scale. The Canadian $ is also lower today.

    Also, you guys are spreading unnecessary panic. Crimea will stay with Russia no matter what. No amount or economic hardship will change that.

    Russia will be under economic challenge for a year or two. Then things will improve and become much better because the economy will adapt. It will be more diversified, more competitive and less resource dependent.

    As the saying goes: What doesn't kill you makes you stronger
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:00 pm

    You are right Armenian, but I am saying there are people in Russia causing issues regarding the economy like grain Exporters selling wholesale while domestic prices are forever increasing, or Russians who spent $30B to buy USD......

    I am also referring to the fact that Russia has no choice but go the Iranian route in order to actually improve its economy. When I say improve, I dont mean make it artificially richer, but more stable and strong. Russia will never have a nominal GDP of that of nations like China and USA but at PPP, they sure can, as long as they actually stick to buying Russian end goods and if Russia expands its own enterprises.
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    Post  AbsoluteZero on Mon Dec 29, 2014 8:51 pm

    This whole economic crisis came at such a bad timing when Russia has dozens of new projects, Armata, Pak Fa, Borei, Angara etc.. if the crisis continues to drag the economy what will happen then? more delays probably and in the worst case scenario some might even get cancelled which is too bad. Last time before the 2008 crisis groundbraking for the Russia tower already started, only to get cancelled and turned into a parking space when the financial crisis hit! the Russia tower would have been a fancy addition to Moscow's financial district
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:15 pm

    Nah, they said there wont be cuts in military production. Angara wont get cut either as it is important (actually, armata, pakfa and angara are systems needed to reduce overall costs in future). The issue is Russia will have to find an alternative economic system. Chances are, all programs will be extended (meaning pak fa, armata and the rest will tale longer to come out in numbers as budget will be stretched.

    Technically, depending on what sectors need the money, cutbacks are the worst thing to do as it limits money circulation. Some projects though would need to be cut as they wouldnt be profitable. Example is that tower you mentioned. Moscow skyline already has an empty occpancy of 20%. Another tower would be pointless.
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    Post  sepheronx on Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:03 pm

    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/769865

    What a dolt.

    The Belarusian leader expressed the view that Russian producers cannot compete with Belarusian ones in terms of quality, price or organization. “That’s why they use such administrative… methods. We are ready for that,” he said. wrote:

    Oh really baka? I thought your optics sucked so Russian made ones were used and your food stuff was carrying goods from sanctioned countries to Russia.

    Hope he ends up out of power soon.
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    Post  Regular on Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:08 pm

    Batka is sitting on two chairs. He thinks he can play Yanukovitchs game. He is smootching with Russia and EU/Ukraine at the same time. Careful Batka, You might fall off Smile
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:52 pm

    So true!
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    Post  AbsoluteZero on Tue Dec 30, 2014 12:45 am

    China launches swaps and forwards between the yuan and the Russian ruble starting Monday.

    guess this is a good first move to step away from the USD, but why the heck is Belarus insisting on trading only with USD with Russia? that kinda defeats the purpose of the EEU, anyways I think Russia is also planning the same currency trade deal with India. Now lets see how Washington will try to attempt to sabotage this Russo-Sino-Indo economic partnership


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