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    Russian Economy General News: #3

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    Austin

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    Post  Austin on Thu Dec 11, 2014 3:26 pm

    Looks like Mi-17/Ka-226 will be Made In India and used internally and exported too

    Rogozin: India will produce at Mi-17 and Ka-226T

    NEW DELHI, Dec. 11 - RIA Novosti. India is in agreement with the Russian Federation will produce on its territory Mi-17 and Ka-226T, and the cars of family "Kamov" will be produced up to 400 a year, told reporters on Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin.

    An agreement on the issue of helicopters was reached after talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who passed on Thursday.

    "There are two contracts. One - Mi-17, in which they (Indian side) really need, and the second - the Ka-226T. It's a big contract to build on the territory of India" - Rogozin said. It is planned to produce annually about 400 pieces.

    Deputy Prime Minister said that initially, when India announced a tender for the helicopters of this type, the main competitor of the Russian aircraft was a helicopter "Eurocopter". However, he said, due to the unique characteristics of the Ka-226 and special requests of the Indian side the tender was canceled and it was agreed on the deployment of India's production of Russian cars.

    Rogozin said that the helicopter will be in the sea and the mountain modification.

    http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20141211/1037744080.html
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Thu Dec 11, 2014 3:28 pm

    Austin wrote:Russian Corporate has to pay to external creditors ....basicly External Debt Repayment

    So debt repayment is now called capital outflow? Anyway, CB may be wrong on those numbers, since they been wrong on nearly everything else (CB managers all over the world (specially Japan atm) are incompetent. Russian CB not excluded. I think it is a wait and see.

    I am happy for India on this deal regarding helicopters. Russia seems to be a good partner in building military gear with, cause I doubt India would have been able to get these from USA. Russian and Indian bilateral trade is about $10B and Putin said that is unnacceptable and trade/investments between the two countries needs to be higher. He was talking about investments in India on other type goods. If I had a suggestion, I would invest in Indian pharma as they are top notch and one of biggest producers in the world.
    TheArmenian
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    Post  TheArmenian on Thu Dec 11, 2014 5:10 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    kvs wrote:They are indeed a collection of bubbleheads.   The gas supply from the Capsian Sea basin has been an epic disappointment after all the hype
    during the 1990s.   Much like the oil prospects, e.g. Kashagan, which have been a flop.   The country with the most in gas reserves
    with a Caspian Sea coastline is Iran and its reserves are in Persian Gulf along with those of Qatar.  Turkmenistan is the only other Caspian
    option but its production has been allocated for China and it really cannot fill the EU's demand.  Azerbaijan is not really even worthy
    of note.   This new project is just Nabucco rehashed and Nabucco flopped for the simple reason that it could not be filled with enough
    gas to justify the massive cost.

    But really, who gives a rat's a** about the EU.  Let them eat their own sh*t.  

    Indeed, here's Pepe Escobar's take on the matter:

    Russia, Turkey pivot across Eurasia
    By Pepe Escobar

    The latest, spectacular "Exit South Stream, Enter Turk Stream" Pipelinistan gambit will be sending big geopolitical shockwaves all across Eurasia for quite some time. This is what the New Great Game in Eurasia is all about.

    In a nutshell, a few years ago Russia devised North Stream - fully operational - and South Stream - still a project - to bypass unreliable Ukraine as a gas transit nation. Now Russia devises a new sweet deal with Turkey to bypass the "non-constructive" (Putin’s words) approach of the European Commission (EC) concerning the European "Third Energy Package", which prohibits

    one company from controlling the full cycle of extraction, transportation and sale of energy resources.

    Background is essential to understand the current game. Already five years ago I was following in detail Pipelineistan’s ultimate opera - the war between rival pipelines South Stream and Nabucco. Nabucco eventually became road kill. South Stream may eventually be resurrected, but only if the EC comes to its senses (don’t bet on it.)

    The 3,600 kilometer South Stream should be in place by 2016, branching out to Austria and the Balkans/Italy. Gazprom owns it with a 50% stake - along with Italy’s ENI (20%), French EDF (15%) and German Wintershall, a subsidiary of BASF (15%). As it stands, these European energy majors are not exactly beaming - to say the least. For months, Gazprom and the EC were haggling about a solution, but in the end Brussels predictably succumbed to its own mediocrity - and relentless US pressure over weak-link and European Union member Bulgaria.

    Russia still gets to build a pipeline under the Black Sea, but one now redirected to Turkey and, crucially, pumping the same amount of gas South Stream would. Not to mention Russia gets to build a new LNG (liquefied natural gas) central hub in the Mediterranean. Thus Gazprom has not spent US$5 billion in vain (finance, engineering costs). The redirection makes total business sense. Turkey is Gazprom’s second-biggest customer after Germany; much bigger than Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria combined.

    Russia also advances a unified gas distribution network capable of delivering natural gas from anywhere in Russia to any hub alongside Russia’s borders.

    And as if it was needed, Russia gets yet another graphic proof that its real growth market in the future is Asia, especially China - not a fearful, stagnated, austerity-devastated, politically paralyzed EU. The evolving Russia-China strategic partnership implies Russia as complementary to China, excelling in major infrastructure projects from building of dams to laying out pipelines. This is trans-Eurasia business with a sharp geopolitical reach and not subjected to ideology-drenched politics.

    Russian "defeat"? Really?
    Turkey also made a killing. It’s not only the deal with Gazprom; Moscow will build no less than Turkey’s entire nuclear industry, and there will be increased soft power interaction (more trade and tourism). Most of all, Turkey is now increasingly on the verge of becoming a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); Moscow is actively lobbying for it.

    This means Turkey acceding to a privileged position as a major hub simultaneously in the Eurasian Economic Belt and of course the Chinese New Silk Road(s). The EU blocks Turkey? Turkey looks East. That’s Eurasian integration on the move.

    Washington has tried very hard to create a New Berlin Wall from the Baltics to the Black Sea to "isolate" Russia. And yet Team "Don’t Do Stupid Stuff" in Washington never saw it coming - yet another Putin judo/chess/go counterpunch applied exactly across the Black Sea.

    Asia Times Online has been reporting for years how Turkey’s key strategic imperative is to configure itself as the indispensable energy crossroads from East to West - transiting everything from Iraqi oil to Caspian Sea gas. Oil from Azerbaijan already transits Turkey via the Bill Clinton/Zbig Brzezinski-propelled BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan) pipeline. Turkey would also be the crossroads if a Trans-Caspian pipeline is ever built (slim chances as it stands), pumping natural gas from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, then transported to Turkey and finally Europe.

    So what Putin’s judo/chess/go counterpunch accomplished with a single move is to have stupid EU sanctions once again hurt the EU. The German economy is already hurting badly because of lost Russia business.

    The EC brilliant "strategy" revolves around the EU’s Third Energy Package, which requires that pipelines and the natural gas flowing inside them must be owned by separate companies. The target of this package has always been Gazprom - which owns pipelines in many Central and Eastern European nations. The target within the target has always been South Stream.

    Now it’s up to Bulgaria and Hungary, which have always fought the EC "strategy", to explain the fiasco to their own populations, and to keep pressing Brussels; after all they are bound to lose a fortune, not to mention get no gas, with South Stream out of the picture. Bulgaria alone reportedly has lost more than 6,000 new jobs and over $3 billion of investment due to the loss of South Stream.

    So here’s the bottom line; Russia sells even more gas - to Turkey; Turkey gets much-needed gas with a cool discount; and the EU, pressured by the Empire of Chaos, is reduced to dance, dance, dance like a bunch of headless chickens in dark Brussels corridors wondering what hit them. And while the Atlanticists are back to default mode - cooking up yet more sanctions - Russia is set to keep buying more and more gold.

    Watch those spears
    This is not the endgame - far from it. In the near future, many variables will intersect.

    Ankara’s game may change - but that’s far from a given. President Recep Erdogan - the Sultan of Constantinople - has certainly identified a rival, Caliph Ibrahim of ISIS/ISIL/Daesh fame, trying to steal his mojo. Thus the sultan may flirt with mollifying his neo-Ottoman dreams and contemplate steering Turkey back to its previously ditched "zero problems with our neighbors" foreign policy doctrine.

    Not so fast. Erdogan’s game so far was the same as that of the House of Saud and Qatar's House of Thani; get rid of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to allow an oil pipeline from Saudi Arabia and a gas pipeline from the South Pars/North Dome mega-field in Qatar. This pipeline would be Qatar-Iraq-Syria-Turkey, rivaling the already proposed, $10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline. Final customers: the EU, of course, desperate in its "escape from Gazprom" offensive.

    So what now? Will Erdogan abandon his "Assad must go" obsession? It’s too early to tell. The Turkish Foreign Ministry is spinning to the media that Washington and Ankara are about to agree on a no-fly zone along the Turkish-Syria border - even as the White House, earlier this week, insisted the idea had been scrapped.

    The House of Saud is like a camel lost in the Arctic. The House of Saud’s lethal game in Syria always boiled down to regime change so that the Saudi-sponsored oil pipeline from Syria to Turkey might be built. Now the Saudis see Russia about to supply all of Turkey’s energy needs - and still be positioned to sell more gas to the EU in the near future. And Assad still won’t go.

    But it is US neo-cons who are sharpening their poisonous spears with gusto. As soon as early 2015 there may be a Ukrainian Freedom Act in the US House of Representatives. Translation: Ukraine being dubbed a "major US non-NATO ally", which means, in practice, a virtual NATO annexation. Next step: more turbo-charged neo-con provocation of Russia.

    A possible scenario is vassal/puppies such as Romania or Bulgaria, pressed by Washington, deciding to allow full access of NATO vessels into the Black Sea. Who cares that this would violate current Black Sea agreements that affect both Russia and Turkey?

    And then there’s a dangerous Rumsfeldian "known unknown": how the fragile Balkans will feel subordinated to the whims of Ankara. As much as Brussels keeps Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia in a strait jacket, in energy terms they will start depending on Turkey’s goodwill.

    For the moment, let’s appreciate the magnitude of the geopolitical shockwaves after Putin’s latest judo/chess/go combo. And get ready for another chapter of Russia’s "pivoting across Eurasia". Putin hits Delhi next weekend. Expect another geopolitical bombshell.

    Russia, Turkey pivot across Eurasia


    Magnumneanderthal,

    Thanks for posting Pepe Escobar's article.

    I gave you my vote.
    AlfaT8
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:23 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    kvs wrote:They are indeed a collection of bubbleheads.   The gas supply from the Capsian Sea basin has been an epic disappointment after all the hype
    during the 1990s.   Much like the oil prospects, e.g. Kashagan, which have been a flop.   The country with the most in gas reserves
    with a Caspian Sea coastline is Iran and its reserves are in Persian Gulf along with those of Qatar.  Turkmenistan is the only other Caspian
    option but its production has been allocated for China and it really cannot fill the EU's demand.  Azerbaijan is not really even worthy
    of note.   This new project is just Nabucco rehashed and Nabucco flopped for the simple reason that it could not be filled with enough
    gas to justify the massive cost.

    But really, who gives a rat's a** about the EU.  Let them eat their own sh*t.  

    Indeed, here's Pepe Escobar's take on the matter:

    Russia, Turkey pivot across Eurasia
    By Pepe Escobar

    The latest, spectacular "Exit South Stream, Enter Turk Stream" Pipelinistan gambit will be sending big geopolitical shockwaves all across Eurasia for quite some time. This is what the New Great Game in Eurasia is all about.

    In a nutshell, a few years ago Russia devised North Stream - fully operational - and South Stream - still a project - to bypass unreliable Ukraine as a gas transit nation. Now Russia devises a new sweet deal with Turkey to bypass the "non-constructive" (Putin’s words) approach of the European Commission (EC) concerning the European "Third Energy Package", which prohibits

    one company from controlling the full cycle of extraction, transportation and sale of energy resources.

    Background is essential to understand the current game. Already five years ago I was following in detail Pipelineistan’s ultimate opera - the war between rival pipelines South Stream and Nabucco. Nabucco eventually became road kill. South Stream may eventually be resurrected, but only if the EC comes to its senses (don’t bet on it.)

    The 3,600 kilometer South Stream should be in place by 2016, branching out to Austria and the Balkans/Italy. Gazprom owns it with a 50% stake - along with Italy’s ENI (20%), French EDF (15%) and German Wintershall, a subsidiary of BASF (15%). As it stands, these European energy majors are not exactly beaming - to say the least. For months, Gazprom and the EC were haggling about a solution, but in the end Brussels predictably succumbed to its own mediocrity - and relentless US pressure over weak-link and European Union member Bulgaria.

    Russia still gets to build a pipeline under the Black Sea, but one now redirected to Turkey and, crucially, pumping the same amount of gas South Stream would. Not to mention Russia gets to build a new LNG (liquefied natural gas) central hub in the Mediterranean. Thus Gazprom has not spent US$5 billion in vain (finance, engineering costs). The redirection makes total business sense. Turkey is Gazprom’s second-biggest customer after Germany; much bigger than Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria combined.

    Russia also advances a unified gas distribution network capable of delivering natural gas from anywhere in Russia to any hub alongside Russia’s borders.

    And as if it was needed, Russia gets yet another graphic proof that its real growth market in the future is Asia, especially China - not a fearful, stagnated, austerity-devastated, politically paralyzed EU. The evolving Russia-China strategic partnership implies Russia as complementary to China, excelling in major infrastructure projects from building of dams to laying out pipelines. This is trans-Eurasia business with a sharp geopolitical reach and not subjected to ideology-drenched politics.

    Russian "defeat"? Really?
    Turkey also made a killing. It’s not only the deal with Gazprom; Moscow will build no less than Turkey’s entire nuclear industry, and there will be increased soft power interaction (more trade and tourism). Most of all, Turkey is now increasingly on the verge of becoming a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); Moscow is actively lobbying for it.

    This means Turkey acceding to a privileged position as a major hub simultaneously in the Eurasian Economic Belt and of course the Chinese New Silk Road(s). The EU blocks Turkey? Turkey looks East. That’s Eurasian integration on the move.

    Washington has tried very hard to create a New Berlin Wall from the Baltics to the Black Sea to "isolate" Russia. And yet Team "Don’t Do Stupid Stuff" in Washington never saw it coming - yet another Putin judo/chess/go counterpunch applied exactly across the Black Sea.

    Asia Times Online has been reporting for years how Turkey’s key strategic imperative is to configure itself as the indispensable energy crossroads from East to West - transiting everything from Iraqi oil to Caspian Sea gas. Oil from Azerbaijan already transits Turkey via the Bill Clinton/Zbig Brzezinski-propelled BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan) pipeline. Turkey would also be the crossroads if a Trans-Caspian pipeline is ever built (slim chances as it stands), pumping natural gas from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, then transported to Turkey and finally Europe.

    So what Putin’s judo/chess/go counterpunch accomplished with a single move is to have stupid EU sanctions once again hurt the EU. The German economy is already hurting badly because of lost Russia business.

    The EC brilliant "strategy" revolves around the EU’s Third Energy Package, which requires that pipelines and the natural gas flowing inside them must be owned by separate companies. The target of this package has always been Gazprom - which owns pipelines in many Central and Eastern European nations. The target within the target has always been South Stream.

    Now it’s up to Bulgaria and Hungary, which have always fought the EC "strategy", to explain the fiasco to their own populations, and to keep pressing Brussels; after all they are bound to lose a fortune, not to mention get no gas, with South Stream out of the picture. Bulgaria alone reportedly has lost more than 6,000 new jobs and over $3 billion of investment due to the loss of South Stream.

    So here’s the bottom line; Russia sells even more gas - to Turkey; Turkey gets much-needed gas with a cool discount; and the EU, pressured by the Empire of Chaos, is reduced to dance, dance, dance like a bunch of headless chickens in dark Brussels corridors wondering what hit them. And while the Atlanticists are back to default mode - cooking up yet more sanctions - Russia is set to keep buying more and more gold.

    Watch those spears
    This is not the endgame - far from it. In the near future, many variables will intersect.

    Ankara’s game may change - but that’s far from a given. President Recep Erdogan - the Sultan of Constantinople - has certainly identified a rival, Caliph Ibrahim of ISIS/ISIL/Daesh fame, trying to steal his mojo. Thus the sultan may flirt with mollifying his neo-Ottoman dreams and contemplate steering Turkey back to its previously ditched "zero problems with our neighbors" foreign policy doctrine.

    Not so fast. Erdogan’s game so far was the same as that of the House of Saud and Qatar's House of Thani; get rid of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to allow an oil pipeline from Saudi Arabia and a gas pipeline from the South Pars/North Dome mega-field in Qatar. This pipeline would be Qatar-Iraq-Syria-Turkey, rivaling the already proposed, $10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline. Final customers: the EU, of course, desperate in its "escape from Gazprom" offensive.

    So what now? Will Erdogan abandon his "Assad must go" obsession? It’s too early to tell. The Turkish Foreign Ministry is spinning to the media that Washington and Ankara are about to agree on a no-fly zone along the Turkish-Syria border - even as the White House, earlier this week, insisted the idea had been scrapped.

    The House of Saud is like a camel lost in the Arctic. The House of Saud’s lethal game in Syria always boiled down to regime change so that the Saudi-sponsored oil pipeline from Syria to Turkey might be built. Now the Saudis see Russia about to supply all of Turkey’s energy needs - and still be positioned to sell more gas to the EU in the near future. And Assad still won’t go.

    But it is US neo-cons who are sharpening their poisonous spears with gusto. As soon as early 2015 there may be a Ukrainian Freedom Act in the US House of Representatives. Translation: Ukraine being dubbed a "major US non-NATO ally", which means, in practice, a virtual NATO annexation. Next step: more turbo-charged neo-con provocation of Russia.

    A possible scenario is vassal/puppies such as Romania or Bulgaria, pressed by Washington, deciding to allow full access of NATO vessels into the Black Sea. Who cares that this would violate current Black Sea agreements that affect both Russia and Turkey?

    And then there’s a dangerous Rumsfeldian "known unknown": how the fragile Balkans will feel subordinated to the whims of Ankara. As much as Brussels keeps Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia in a strait jacket, in energy terms they will start depending on Turkey’s goodwill.

    For the moment, let’s appreciate the magnitude of the geopolitical shockwaves after Putin’s latest judo/chess/go combo. And get ready for another chapter of Russia’s "pivoting across Eurasia". Putin hits Delhi next weekend. Expect another geopolitical bombshell.

    Russia, Turkey pivot across Eurasia

    With the exception of Turkeys (a NATO member) ascension to SCO, i pretty much agree with Pepe.
    AlfaT8
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:16 pm

    Markets in Europe, America Surge on US Data, Asia Slid
    Investors are cautious worldwide, with markets in Asia and Europe largely bearish, while the US is surging on optimistic macroeconomic data.

    MOSCOW, December 11 (Sputnik) — Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific closed in the red zone today as Chinese debt concerns and lack of global demand for manufactured goods rendered investors bearish, while European stocks ended the day flat, shaking between gains and losses during the trading session on new ECB loans, and the US markets surged decisively on the optimistic retail sales and unemployment data......
    http://sputniknews.com/business/20141211/1015746835.html
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    Post  AlfaT8 on Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:21 pm

    Workers of Russian carmaker giant plan rally against job cuts, low salaries

    An application for a rally on December 14, estimated at up to 1,000 people, has been submitted to Togliatti’s Mayoral Office

    SAMARA, December 11. /TASS/. Workers of Russia’s AVTOVAZ car manufacturer based in Togliatti, the Samara region, plan a rally to protest against job cuts and low salaries, the chairman of the Edinstvo (Unity) independent trade union told Tass on Thursday.

    An application for a rally on December 14, estimated at up to 1,000 people, has been submitted to Togliatti’s Mayoral Office. “If the AVTOVAZ leadership does not agree to negotiations after the December 14 meeting, we will possibly opt for a strike,” said Pyotr Zolotaryov.

    The trade union has already urged the carmaker’s leadership to discuss the situation, but talks have failed to take place as of yet. An average salary as of the end of October was about 28,000 roubles (about $500 at the current exchange rate).

    Addressing 6,000 workers of the car concern at the end of October, AVTOVAZ president Bo Andersson explained the situation, saying a salary system would replace the tariff system in car assembly works from January 2015, and a system of bonuses would be improved for the workers.

    The carmaker’s budget for 2015 earmarks $36.5 million for social needs.

    Earlier reports said there would be about 53,000 workers at the plant by the end of 2014 against 65,800 people last year. The number of foreign employees has also been cut from 11 to four.
    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766524
    What happened!? Sad
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:15 pm

    AlfaT8 wrote:
    Workers of Russian carmaker giant plan rally against job cuts, low salaries

    An application for a rally on December 14, estimated at up to 1,000 people, has been submitted to Togliatti’s Mayoral Office

    SAMARA, December 11. /TASS/. Workers of Russia’s AVTOVAZ car manufacturer based in Togliatti, the Samara region, plan a rally to protest against job cuts and low salaries, the chairman of the Edinstvo (Unity) independent trade union told Tass on Thursday.

    An application for a rally on December 14, estimated at up to 1,000 people, has been submitted to Togliatti’s Mayoral Office. “If the AVTOVAZ leadership does not agree to negotiations after the December 14 meeting, we will possibly opt for a strike,” said Pyotr Zolotaryov.

    The trade union has already urged the carmaker’s leadership to discuss the situation, but talks have failed to take place as of yet. An average salary as of the end of October was about 28,000 roubles (about $500 at the current exchange rate).

    Addressing 6,000 workers of the car concern at the end of October, AVTOVAZ president Bo Andersson explained the situation, saying a salary system would replace the tariff system in car assembly works from January 2015, and a system of bonuses would be improved for the workers.

    The carmaker’s budget for 2015 earmarks $36.5 million for social needs.

    Earlier reports said there would be about 53,000 workers at the plant by the end of 2014 against 65,800 people last year. The number of foreign employees has also been cut from 11 to four.
    http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766524
    What happened!?  Sad

    Company being greedy. Avtovaz is owned by Renault-Nissan group,100% so they are doing what all companies do during sales being down - get rid of people and reduce pay. I think that is wrong since Avtovaz has made quite a bit of money recently. $500 by weekly is quite low, that is lower than a steel mill worker in Russia. And that is making cars! Hopefully they work something out, like $600 biweekly wages would be fairer and maybe something else, like different work.

    Problem with Togliatti is that it is classified as a monograd. A one trick pony. Avtovaz effectively owns the place. They also deal with more than just auto making. Especially now when avtovaz is actually doing well. Recent reports state that orders for lada granta and kalina are more than current production can do, as well as calls for other vehicles as well due to recycle program.

    That said, 65,000 employees? Wow! Far more than GM plant in Canada. If they are going to lay people off, I would expect that those who stayed should get a nice raise. But Nissan and Renault are going to take advantage of current economic situation (since Nissan stated they will open further production in Russia).

    Tl;dr - Business being greedy.

    Wait, how do they calculate salary in Russia? Is it bi-weekly or monthly? If that is what they get paid monthly, I too would protest. In modern Russia, thats simply criminal wages. Avtovaz can afford to pay more.


    Last edited by sepheronx on Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:28 pm

    AlfaT8 wrote:Markets in Europe, America Surge on US Data, Asia Slid
    Investors are cautious worldwide, with markets in Asia and Europe largely bearish, while the US is surging on optimistic macroeconomic data.

    MOSCOW, December 11 (Sputnik) — Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific closed in the red zone today as Chinese debt concerns and lack of global demand for manufactured goods rendered investors bearish, while European stocks ended the day flat, shaking between gains and losses during the trading session on new ECB loans, and the US markets surged decisively on the optimistic retail sales and unemployment data......
    http://sputniknews.com/business/20141211/1015746835.html

    They are surging because.....the central bank is buying stocks. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-11/biggest-buying-panic-stocks-year
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    Post  sepheronx on Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:12 am

    Another proof CB is incompetent and hurting Russia: http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766516

    The increase in interest is going to hurt business profits and will ultimately hurt small/med business. Ruble is free float, they shouldnt be doing this.

    I think it is time to kick in CB's door.
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    Post  Werewolf on Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:15 am

    sepheronx wrote:Another proof CB is incompetent and hurting Russia: http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766516

    The increase in interest is going to hurt business profits and will ultimately hurt small/med business. Ruble is free float, they shouldnt be doing this.

    I think it is time to kick in CB's door.

    CB is not incompetent they are just not working in favor of Russia like it was writen into the constitution to undermine russia in the oligarch Jelzin era like this shit Bretton Woods bullshit was forced upon russia along with it.
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    Post  sepheronx on Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:25 am

    Werewolf wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Another proof CB is incompetent and hurting Russia: http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766516

    The increase in interest is going to hurt business profits and will ultimately hurt small/med business. Ruble is free float, they shouldnt be doing this.

    I think it is time to kick in CB's door.

    CB is not incompetent they are just not working in favor of Russia like it was writen into the constitution to undermine russia in the oligarch Jelzin era like this shit Bretton Woods bullshit was forced upon russia along with it.

    I wonder how far they will go till Putin and co tells them to drop the interest rates and move forex back to Russia? These moves will only make it hard for business to obtain decent loans to expand production, ultimately leaving it only to large enterprises and gov ran enterprises into expanding.
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    Post  kvs on Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:43 am

    sepheronx wrote:
    Austin wrote:Russian Corporate has to pay to external creditors ....basicly External Debt Repayment

    So debt repayment is now called capital outflow? Anyway, CB may be wrong on those numbers, since they been wrong on nearly everything else (CB managers all over the world (specially Japan atm) are incompetent. Russian CB not excluded. I think it is a wait and see.

    This news coverage is BS. They insist on lumping private corporate debt with national debt. This is never done for NATO
    member countries and the rest of the west. Russia has zero liability from private debt. If some corporation defaults, then it
    is not Russia that needs to step in and compensate the lenders. The US has $18 trillion in actual government debt.
    If you include private debt the figure is over $55 trillion (http://rt.com/usa/166352-us-total-debt-sixty-trillion/).

    The attempt to paint private debt payments as capital flight is surreal nonsense. This is not news coverage, this is two bit
    propaganda.
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    Post  kvs on Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:46 am

    sepheronx wrote:Another proof CB is incompetent and hurting Russia: http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766516

    The increase in interest is going to hurt business profits and will ultimately hurt small/med business. Ruble is free float, they shouldnt be doing this.

    I think it is time to kick in CB's door.

    The Duma needs to get involved. The CBR needs to justify its interest rate and explain what definition of the CPI it is using.
    What we have at the CBR is a bunch of monetarist monkeys who are acting as if the Russian economy is in the same regime
    as Canada and the USA. They are trying to prop up the exchange of the ruble via interest rates. It will not work they way
    they think.
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    Post  sepheronx on Fri Dec 12, 2014 4:48 am

    kvs wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Another proof CB is incompetent and hurting Russia: http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766516

    The increase in interest is going to hurt business profits and will ultimately hurt small/med business. Ruble is free float, they shouldnt be doing this.

    I think it is time to kick in CB's door.

    The Duma needs to get involved.   The CBR needs to justify its interest rate and explain what definition of the CPI it is using.
    What we have at the CBR is a bunch of monetarist monkeys who are acting as if the Russian economy is in the same regime
    as Canada and the USA.   They are trying to prop up the exchange of the ruble via interest rates.   It will not work they way
    they think.

    Well, someone will have to do something quick. Because it is killing stocks after this interest rate increase. Actually, what CBR effectively done is limit small businesses capabilities and also didn't help the Ruble one bit. Made it worst. This is driving Stocks down and is suffocating industries. If Putin wants to survive this, and to get small businesses involved and get the economy rolling, he will need to do something real quick or many industries will default due to higher interest rates and devaluation of ruble. Which will ultimately hurt the economy. So he will have to act quick I think, time isn't on their side and this may end Putin's power. As well, this may cause real breakup within Russia. So ultimately, America will win. Maybe not this year, maybe near end of next year though.
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    Post  sepheronx on Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:14 am

    http://russia-insider.com/en/2014/12/12/1700

    Russia's Central Bank Is Clueless

    Read this. It isn't pretty. And I think something needs to be done. But if it is a popular belief that CB is nothing but in cahoots with Washington, then CB may end up as a nothing in the end.
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    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:06 am

    I find the argument that Rouble is 40 % weaker coz Oil is 40 % lower hard to believe , if that were to be true then why is the currency of OPEC countries not 40 % weaker when they depend on 90 % revenues from Oil ?

    Something is making the Rouble weaker and its not Oil and Sanction something more sinister.

    I think CB is clueless or what ever they know on how to control the situation is not working for them.
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    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 12, 2014 6:19 am

    Good Article

    The West's Wet Dream: Russia Is Running out of Money!

    http://russia-insider.com/en/2014/12/12/1821



    Although I still dont think NWF and Reserve Fund are part of Forex
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    Post  Vann7 on Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:03 pm

    Austin wrote:

    Something is making the Rouble weaker and its not Oil and Sanction something more sinister.

    .

    Is an economic war against Russia.. The Jewish Rockefellers banking Mafia took control of US by playing with its economy. I however have been reading both sides of the story.. and we do not have all the sides of the story.
    In Saker for example so called "Putin Advisors" were condemning Central Bank actions of increasing interest rate..
    His solution was a communist like solution.. of extreme controls of the Rubles ,blockade the flow of currency and to start interfering in the value of Ruble by burning billions. But an expert in economy was saying that it was wrong that strategy.. because it creates panic..which is the most dangerous weapon in any economy.. and people will start dumping Rubles and seeking to trade them for Dollars.. in fear of central banks regulations.  So the economist was saying that intervention creates speculation and doubts.. and could scare investors..   So maybe we do not have all the information that Russian Government have... .. SOmeone even mentioned that what will damage the Russian economy is NOT how the west value their currency but inflation inside. because oil was priced in 2000 at $20.. and Russia always make profit ,not matter the price.. since the cost of production is about $4 dollars per barrel.less profits for sure but still they win something. he even mentions that Low currency value abroad could attract a lot of investors to Russia and this is the reason Why CHINA on purpose undervalue its own currency. Over valued dollar will provoke in the other hands US companies to move abroad and try to get more from their money.means less Jobs for americans.  .

    However if the government panics and start manipulating everything and controlling the prices of things.. could create a crisis.  -> FEAR  is the worse enemy in any economic crisis. It provokes people to lose faith in their country economy. Argentina for example is on default and is business as usual there. is not a prosperous country ,there are problems..but People have adapted there to live without foreign investments and with a currency that US and Europe considers of 0$ value.

    if i was leader of Russia ,i will have run the economy different.. ZERO, dependence in US and Europe..you could laugh at this but Hitler *before any war* or any tank made ,when get in power he developed a good system that allowed them a miracle in his economy..what allowed him not only to modernize the country but build a powerful modern army.  He used a model he called Friends economy.. that people help each other with anything they need. and it worked dam well. yes he was an evil man.. but what he did in Germany with his economy was a miracle.
    Hitler managed to create a very successful model economy that could not be manipulated by the west ..

     Perhaps Russia needs to return to a socialist like nation.. Cuba for example survived a total blockade of USA trade embargo for 50 years.. Russia can do much better that have all the scientist and talent to produce all the technology and things they need.  ie.. vehicles. computers.. entertainment ,space ,movies.. electronics for house ,..etc..

    This is better for me.. than to play under the rules of Americans and jewish bankers.
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    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:44 pm

    Looks like Obama is hell bent in bankrupting Russia and made this his personal choice to punish Russia

    Obama Says Unity With Europe Should Trump More Sanctions Against Russia

    High time Russian leadership thinks about the future from now else they would be royally in a big mess
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    Post  Austin on Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:16 pm

    Looking at the fact if true that NWF and Reserve Fund are part of Forex then we are dealing with ~ $175 billion less money on Forex as they NWF/Reserve Fund are for specific purpose.

    If CBR drains Forex supporting Rouble , even at rate of $10 billion per month then by next year they would end up spending $100-120 billion supporting rouble.

    Indeed tough times and frekin Oil continuous to fall , Iran Oil Mininster to states that Oil may fall to $40
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    Post  Werewolf on Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:19 pm

    Please wake up from the beLIEves that the CB is working infavor of Russia and Rouble, they are not and it is writen into the constitution that they don't have to and this constitutional law overweights their oblication in the contract/treaty between state and a private organisation which the CB is a private bank.
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    Post  flamming_python on Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:53 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Another proof CB is incompetent and hurting Russia: http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766516

    The increase in interest is going to hurt business profits and will ultimately hurt small/med business. Ruble is free float, they shouldnt be doing this.

    I think it is time to kick in CB's door.

    Raising interest at this time is a wise move IMO

    With the 30-40% devaluation of the rouble relative to the Dollar/Euro/Pound; there are no signs of panic in Russia, and no signs that anything has happened at all so far, other than one thing - the country is tipping into a spending spree (myself included). I already bought a 5.0 Surround Sound system, Yamaha Receiver/Amp, Projector and a whole bunch of smaller things from China. Now am looking into a Subwoofer, Fridge, Washing Machine maybe for the new flat I'll be moving into.

    Anyone who's anyone anticipates that prices will soon grow; as the rouble's purchasing power has waned, imports are becoming more expensive as old stocks runs out and retail chains have to order in new stocks from abroad at higher prices; and soon domestic products which rely on imported parts will become more expensive too.
    So instead of watching as their savings decrease in value; people are voting with their wallet and translating their depreciating, monetary assets into tangible assets and consumer goods - before they become more expensive.
    This year's New Year's spending spree will be among the biggest in Russian history.

    This spending spree is a boon to the retail sector and domestic producers; but only for a short while - once people have bought enough stuff the boom will be followed by a draught, and consumption of high-value consumer goods will decrease beyond their original levels.
    Suffice to say this sort of behavior is really not all that healthy for the economy; that's to say hoarding of high-value items in anticipation of coming purchasing power erosions. The Central Bank by all appearances - wants to balance this out by encouraging people to save - hence the raising of interest rates.

    There. Nothing conspiratorial about all this. Central Bank of Russia is not on the payroll of the CIA. It's just taking the decision it deems logical; and it has access to a lot more data and analysis than any of us.
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    Post  sepheronx on Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:03 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Another proof CB is incompetent and hurting Russia: http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766516

    The increase in interest is going to hurt business profits and will ultimately hurt small/med business. Ruble is free float, they shouldnt be doing this.

    I think it is time to kick in CB's door.

    Raising interest at this time is a wise move IMO

    With the 30-40% devaluation of the rouble relative to the Dollar/Euro/Pound; there are no signs of panic in Russia, and no signs that anything has happened at all so far, other than one thing - the country is tipping into a spending spree (myself included). I already bought a 5.0 Surround Sound system, Yamaha Receiver/Amp, Projector and a whole bunch of smaller things from China. Now am looking into a Subwoofer, Fridge, Washing Machine maybe for the new flat I'll be moving into.

    Anyone who's anyone anticipates that prices will soon grow; as the rouble's purchasing power has waned, imports are becoming more expensive as old stocks runs out and retail chains have to order in new stocks from abroad at higher prices; and soon domestic products which rely on imported parts will become more expensive too.
    So instead of watching as their savings decrease in value; people are voting with their wallet and translating their depreciating, monetary assets into tangible assets and consumer goods - before they become more expensive.
    This year's New Year's spending spree will be among the biggest in Russian history.

    This spending spree is a boon to the retail sector and domestic producers; but only for a short while - once people have bought enough stuff the boom will be followed by a draught, and consumption of high-value consumer goods will decrease beyond their original levels.
    Suffice to say this sort of behavior is really not all that healthy for the economy; that's to say hoarding of high-value items in anticipation of coming purchasing power erosions. The Central Bank by all appearances - wants to balance this out by encouraging people to save - hence the raising of interest rates.

    There. Nothing conspiratorial about all this. Central Bank of Russia is not on the payroll of the CIA. It's just taking the decision it deems logical; and it has access to a lot more data and analysis than any of us.

    Are you for real?  80% or so of the Russian GDP relies on domestic consumption.  If no one is buying goods, then industries will end up having to cut workforces and or close up shop, meaning less jobs, which means even less money for people.  Hording money wont do jack other than kill off domestic industries.  In the end, Russia will end up becoming reliant on oil and gas again as main commodity, but worst yet, no manufacturing left.  So your idea that they are doing a good job is total nonsense and people like yourself are to blame for Russia's bad position.  Interest rates going up and then currency continues to fall?  That is nothing other than complete disregard for the economy.  Interest rates is what is the problem.  Currency is undervalued and will eventually climb back up, only if Russia actually puts a tough stance against central bank and the west.  Till then, they will drop your currency till it is completely worthless.  The interest rates going up will now pretty much prevent businesses from starting up because it will not be economical for them to start a business in Russia.  This is what you want?  You yourself will probably flee back to London because there will be no god damn jobs left in Russia because your idea that CBR is doing the right thing, is a total sham.  Basic economics, learn it.  Because I can tell you, your idea and CBR idea, is not one to follow.  Canada had 18% interest rates and people couldnt afford homes or businesses.

    Domestic manufacturers will either die or end up having to rely on low profits and sell their products at much cheaper rates.  What CBR is doing is curbing domestic manufacturing and killing off concept of import substitution.  Pretty much making Russia reliant on the west.  This in itself gives evident that CBR is working against Russia.  Anyone with half a damn brain can figure this out.

    Ruble is now 56/USD and still going down.  Guess what? Increasing interest rates did absolutely nothing, NOTHING.  Other than making it harder now to actually obtain credit to do anything.  Wow, I am now under the assumption that Russia is screwed.  At first I thought they can do this because of eventually dealing with CBR and getting lower interest rates so they can do production on their own, but it seems that Putin is doing **** all and sitting on his ass.  Maybe he isn't smart after all.  Cause this will destroy Russia's economy.  I guess you people learned nothing from the 90's other than being reliant like servants are to their masters, and lazy.  Maybe it is high time to allow state run all enterprises again.  Cause you guys cant do it yourselves and think saving money by sitting on it, will actually do you anything.

    Good luck with this.  Cause I imagine Putin will be thrown out and Crimea handed back on a silver platter soon.  Since you guys cant do anything on your own and rely on others.

    http://benefits.northropgrumman.com/_layouts/NG.Ben/Pages/AnnouncementReader.aspx?w=B9F17B39-24B3-4958-A0EA-FE0C7835F43E&l=489D0D55-D3E7-4BB9-A8AD-FA1CC3D56EF1&i=5

    On interest rates. Pretty much I agree with regarding whole economy. I guess CBR is far from reality. Hopefully they will be dealt with soon.


    Last edited by sepheronx on Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx on Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:23 pm

    There was a proposal apparently about creating another currency in Russia (like Irans Tomba or whatever it is called) where it would be tied to something and limited in trade/accessibility. Cuba did this where they have two types of Peso's, one for domestic use and one for purchasing goods outside and for tourists. Maybe this is what Russia will have to do. A currency that is tied to Gold may be a good start. A free floating currency and a trade currency. Doing this will help reduce overall costs for businesses and be able to circumvent currency restrictions.

    But CBR needs to be dealt with. NEEDS to be. There is no ifs ands or buts. It has to be done for Russia's future. Either that, or make them completely irrelevant. Belarus for crying out loud doesn't have a CB, at least not one independent. Their currency isn't getting thrown into the gutter. Christ, 56/USD. At first I figured a lower ruble would be good, but this is lowering far too much and something has to be done. Free floating it hasn't stopped the speculation attack. Maybe they need a new currency or tie it to gold and just deal with the fact that they will obtain less money for their oil.
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    Post  par far on Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:33 pm

    I think a new currency has to made and tied to gold and it need to happen ASAP.

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