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Bank of Russia Today published an updated draft of the main directions of the monetary policy (DCT), which, in particular, has greatly increased the inflation forecast for 2015 and 2016 in the baseline scenario. First deputy chairman Xenia Yudaeva in comments to a document written that the Russian economy will be stable even under a condition if the price of oil during the 2015-2017 period would remain at $ 80 per barrel, and reciprocal sanctions will not be lifted.
The draft contains the main directions of the DCT and stress scenarios - the fall in oil prices to $ 60 per barrel in 2015 with the restoration of up to $ 80 in 2017, but the Central Bank considers it unlikely. In this case happens when the ruble weakening economic downturn. In 2015, GDP will fall by 3.5-4.0% inflation will be 7.5-8.0%.
Under the baseline scenario ($ 95 per barrel), the Central Bank expects that inflation next year will amount to 6.2-6.4% (Instead of the previously expected 4.5-5%), and in 2016 - 4,9-5,3% (Instead of 3.7-4.2%). Next expected slowdown in inflation to the target level, the evaluation of the Bank of Russia, by the end of 2017 inflation will be 4-4.6%. This scenario provides for zero growth in GDP and capital outflow of $ 99 billion. The forecast net capital outflows from the country for 2014 increased to $ 128 billion from $ 90 billion.
Evaluation Yudayeva prevent a sharp rise in prices in 2014, measures the DCT was impossible. "Accelerating inflation was due to the action of unforeseen factors, the main influence of monetary policy on inflation is realized on the horizon of one year - one and a half years after the change key rate" - the document says.
Nevertheless, the increase in key rates by the Bank of Russia in 2014 to limit the scope of accelerating inflation and ruble devaluation due to the impact on inflation and exchange rate expectations of economic agents and contributed to the restoration of their propensity to save, said the Central Bank. The total contribution of external contingencies, as well as non-monetary factors in inflation at the end of 2014 will be about 3.5 percentage points, according to the main directions of the DCT.
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