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    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Thu May 02, 2019 11:51 am

    Well, the Sosna still hasn't been deployed as far as i am aware of, and Russia is also in the process of upgrading the Strela-10s anyway.

    Technology moves on so it is often easier to fit a new seeker or systems to an old model weapon to make it easier and cheaper to maintain.

    The Russians continue to upgrade the T-72 at a time when there are multiple replacements on the verge or in service... T-90, T-14 Armata, Kurganets tank, Boomerang tank, Typhoon tank, and of course Sprut light tank.

    So the upgrades are fine then.

    True, but not worth spending a lot of money on because the clients wont want state of the art super dooper systems... well they probably will, but they wont be prepared to pay the sort of money needed for such levels of performance.

    For instance getting an upgraded Shilka with all new AESA radar and all the electronics replaced with new missiles and upgraded design might cost 5 million per vehicle... but it might cost 6 million for a basic model Tunguska... which is a much better base vehicle... the guns are effective to roughly twice the range, and the missiles will also double the range of any MANPADS and actually be cheaper simple command guided missiles rather than more expensive IR guided weapons.

    The thing is that weapons are for using and not for show, so having cheaper missiles is rather more important than western experts will admit... in combat soldiers will fire ATGMs at all sorts of things and with SAMs it is the same... the SA-19 is not an expensive missile and you could use it against drones with reasonable effectiveness, but Verba MANPADS are going to be much more sophisticated and expensive, while likely being more capable in some areas....


    Either way the Sosna isn't ready yet, haven't heard about any unit orders yet.

    Sosna-R is the export model name, the domestic model name is Bagul’nik, but I have also read of it being called Strela-10ML. The missile itself is actually already used in their navy in the Palma and Palash CIWS gun mounts.

    My understanding is that the standard system is MTLB based but there is a BMD-4 based model to replace SA-13 (which is not air droppable) and the ZU-23-2 in the VDV.

    True, although then there's the question of how many targets it can engage at once, after all it only has one Laser beam channel.
    Probly the only advantage the Strela has, i guess.

    It can probably only guide one missile at a time, but the booster accelerates the missile to 900m/s and its very low drag second stage means flight times are very short out even to max range... The cost of that advantage is rather high because it makes it expensive to use. The Sosna vehicle has 12 ready to use missiles that can kill targets in a circle 20km across and 5km high... that is very powerful.

    Although there is mention of a small acquisition Radar to engage more targets, not much info on this component though?

    I suspect the SOSNA vehicle will not be fitted with radar to make it a passive node in terms of the network, but it can still detect and track targets on its own... presumably it can detect and lase targets beyond 10km range around its own position... lack of a radar in the Russian military is not a problem really as most air defence vehicles get their targets and orders from command vehicles anyway most of the time. The don't roll around the place looking for air targets themselves... that would be very inefficient and disorganised.

    Problem is, that it is from seventies and missile's IR homing head is not that good against modern small targets as drones, bombs, missiles, etc, although in Syria, they shot down cruise missiles.

    They have upgraded the seeker several times to improve its performance and increase its resistance to countermeasures... the M3 model was advertised in the early 2000s and mentions abilities to hit small targets like cruise missiles and drones... but that is as much to do with the laser proximity fuse than the seeker really... the Igla seeker could detect small drones and cruise missiles but it was the Igla-S that got a proximity fuse before they said it was capable of being used effectively against small targets.

    And of course the much higher flight speed means it can engage more targets than you might think... plus it can engage targets no matter what their IR signature including targets on the ground or in bad weather.
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    Post  medo on Thu May 02, 2019 1:58 pm

    VDV could got both systems installed on their BTR-MDM vehicles. Sosna-R and Gibka-S. VDV already have both Igla-S and Verba in arsenal and both systems will most probably use the same barnaul-T command post.

    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 9a332-10

    Gibka-S is light complex, what is important for VDV and enable the operater to work with it for longer with no need to have heavy missile on his shoulders for a longer time.

    When we talk abould cheap air defense, we must not forget on BMPT, although air defense is its secondary role and meant only for self defense. With BMPT we talk aboult Ataka missiles, which it have in armament. Ataka is simple laser guided missile, same as Sosna missile. It is made in many versions, newer ATGM versions have range of 8 to 10 km. But Ataka is also made in 9M220O anti air version, which have expanding rod fragmentation warhead and proximity fuse. It have a range of 7 km and max speed is 550 m/s. For comparison, Roland max speed is 500 m/s. Missile is meant to engage low and slow flying aircraft. When BMPT is connected with air defense command post to receive target info, it is still dangerous surprise for those flying around.
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    Post  nero on Thu May 02, 2019 6:14 pm

    There is currently a massive bombing campaign happening on Idlib with Syrian Arab Army moving into position to attack the region from the South-West. The initial bombing campaign was started exactly a month ago, though the last few days are an obvious increase in attacks, both by the Russian Air Force and the SyAFF.
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    Post  par far on Thu May 02, 2019 9:58 pm

    nero wrote:There is currently a massive bombing campaign happening on Idlib with Syrian Arab Army moving into position to attack the region from the South-West. The initial bombing campaign was started exactly a month ago, though the last few days are an obvious increase in attacks, both by the Russian Air Force and the SyAFF.

    It has intensified, here are some videos.











    https://southfront.org/russian-and-syrian-warplanes-carried-out-more-than-hundred-airstrikes-in-last-24-hours-videos/



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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Thu May 02, 2019 11:51 pm

    medo wrote:
    AlfaT8 wrote:Well, the Sosna still hasn't been deployed as far as i am aware of, and Russia is also in the process of upgrading the Strela-10s anyway.

    https://weaponews.com/news/65349093-the-defense-ministry-is-preparing-to-adopt-a-short-range-sam-sosna.html

    True. Russia finnished state tests with Sosna-R in March this year and now they went in production. We could expect first deliveries late this year or in the beginning of next year. Russia upgrade only 70 Strela-10 to Strela-10MN, mostly for VDV units, which will use them untill new air defense complexes based on BTR-MDM will come in armament.

    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Master10

    To be honest, better actual replacement for Strela-10 is Gibka-S VSHORAD system, same as Strela-10, which is now in process of state tests. It uses Igla-S or Verba MANPADs and is more comparable with Strela-10 or as it is based on Tigr-M vehicle, with Strela-1. Strela-10MN is still usefull, as it is integrated in IADS with data link and have FLIR camera for night operations. Problem is, that it is from seventies and missile's IR homing head is not that good against modern small targets as drones, bombs, missiles, etc, although in Syria, they shot down cruise missiles.

    AlfaT8 wrote:True, although then there's the question of how many targets it can engage at once, after all it only has one Laser beam channel.

    Correct, Sosna-R could engage only 1 target with 1 missile simultaneously, similar as Tunguska. In Russian army, Sosna-R will take its place in the level between Tor-m2 and MANPADs with their self propelled variants like Gibka-S. Sosna-R coulod still give good protection to Tor-M2, specially in time of reloading. Baterry of 6 Sosna-R have 72 missiles on launchers and 6 channels to guide 6 missiles against 6 targets and their missiles are also simple and cheap and could be produced in large numbers. Ideally a baterry of 4 Tor-M2 will have protection of battery of 6 Sosna-R. that would mean 136 missiles in launchers ready to fire and 22 channels to guide 22 missiles against 22 targets simultaneously. This is quite important, when you have to deal with attacks with larger number of bombs, drones, missiles. Not many states could send such a large number of expensive guided missiles, bombs or drones against 1 target as noone want to fly too close to such defense to drop unguided bombs. In IADS you have to look on the SAM system layered in defense with other systems in higher and lower level.

    1 missile for 1 target implies that 1 Sosna-R is fighting by itself. Strategic command posts would allow it to take on more threats with a higher capability. I remember the strategic command post for Panstir, Baikal-M, was able to make the Kornet-EM ATGM incredibly effective against cruise missiles.
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    Post  GarryB on Fri May 03, 2019 1:01 am

    VDV could got both systems installed on their BTR-MDM vehicles. Sosna-R and Gibka-S. VDV already have both Igla-S and Verba in arsenal and both systems will most probably use the same barnaul-T command post.

    Well it would certainly make sense... SOSNA-R, Igla-S, and Verba all have proximity fuses and accurate guidance systems to allow the engagement of rather small elusive targets like drones and missiles, and the infantry will almost certainly carry MANPADS as well, though mounting it on a vehicle would improve ammo capacity, rate of fire, communications and awareness of threats etc.

    The MANPADS are capable fire and forget weapons, while the new Sosna-R is a much faster missile with a much larger engagement envelope...

    When BMPT is connected with air defense command post to receive target info, it is still dangerous surprise for those flying around.

    Actually I suspect the BMPT with airburst 30mm cannon shells would be a near perfect solution to enemy drones... especially suicide drones... a burst of 4-5 rounds exploding all around an incoming drone should probably damage most light drones to the point where they can no longer fly to their objective...

    The initial bombing campaign was started exactly a month ago, though the last few days are an obvious increase in attacks, both by the Russian Air Force and the SyAFF.

    Interesting they Americans and British and French are not crying publicly for all their terrorists getting killed... perhaps all the (type of) people wanting to come home from Idlib has made them think again about their policies in the region... I mean they are happy to armed prisoners in Venezuela to murder local Venezuelans, but the very idea they might think they could come to the west after it all goes tits up is something they didn't consider when they signed off on this...

    It has intensified, here are some videos.

    Interesting they use Helicopters... and from the look of it improvised bombs. I suspect they will be using up material they have captured like land mines and various explosive devices to bomb the enemy on the cheap... The low forward flight speed would limit the horizontal spread of anything dropped so they are probably reasonably accurate with their improvised weapons... and if not... just make the next ones bigger...

    1 missile for 1 target implies that 1 Sosna-R is fighting by itself. Strategic command posts would allow it to take on more threats with a higher capability. I remember the strategic command post for Panstir, Baikal-M, was able to make the Kornet-EM ATGM incredibly effective against cruise missiles.

    No, it is not designed to fight by itself normally (it can, but wouldn't). It would be connected to the local IADS network and a command vehicle would give it target data on a nearby highest threat target for it to engage... and other SOSNA-R vehicles would get target data too so they weren't all shooting at the same target and letting the others through...
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    Post  Isos on Tue May 07, 2019 5:14 pm

    https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201905071074787879-syria-hmeimim-pantsir-missile-system/

    27 rockets intercepted by tors and pantsirs.
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    Post  Isos on Sat May 11, 2019 4:16 am

    Don't they have tors or pantsirs over there ?

    Syrian Military Capabilities
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    ·
    3h
    Update
    Yesterday at night the #Russia/n air defense battery in the Russian point near Al Tnaf south of #Syria
    Fired a warning shots against unidentified jet flew near the area
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    Post  Vann7 on Mon May 13, 2019 5:29 pm

    Isos wrote:Don't they have tors or pantsirs over there ?

    Syrian Military Capabilities
    @Syrian_MC
    ·
    3h
    Update
    Yesterday at night the #Russia/n air defense battery in the Russian point near Al Tnaf south of #Syria
    Fired a warning shots against unidentified jet flew near the area

    If memory don't fail , that is the illegal base in eastern desert of  Syria setup by Americans near
    Jordan border.. that use thousands of civilians as a human shield... and as an excuse for being there..
    for "protecting civilians".   so the unidentified plane ,could be from US airforce . will not be surprising Russia fired bullets strays in the air to scare the plane away of their positions.. a Tor or a Pantsir,, no idea if their missiles can be used as warning shots...

    in other news.. A new video surface that claims that is off Russia airforce bombing
    of a bunker in IDLIB couple of weeks ago..  



    The analysis on charlie website is on Spanish.. but you can translate on English , using
    the google app included in the website on the right.. of the page.

    http://charly015.blogspot.com/2019/05/analisis-del-ataque-ruso-contra-un.html

    So some more roasted NATO backed terrorist for good..  what is interesting in video
    is how close is the camera from the attacked place , and that they guy don't scream
    alakahu akbar , as always Alqaeda or ISIS do ..in their videos... and he speak arab ..
    So seems it was a Syrian Special Force unit that infiltrated the place and guided the bomb..
    Anyone who knows Arab ?, might be interesting to know what they are saying on radio on the video
    during the Attack.  I only managed to hear the sound "Russi " as they call Russia..  lol1
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    Post  GarryB on Tue May 14, 2019 7:13 am

    Looking at it repeatedly frame by frame it seems to me that about 4 or 5 bombs hit from the far side of the opening to the last bomb hitting between the opening and the camera... they looked like a cluster of bombs and the closest bomb sent up a shower of dirt rather than a blast which suggests they were penetrating bombs that dug deep into the ground before exploding.

    Nice cluster pattern... I suspect this was probably either an Su-24 or Su-34 or Tu-22M3 releasing 4-6 bombs heading directly towards the camera and getting all the bombs right on the money...

    Here is a still just before impact so you can see where things are:

    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Vlcsna10

    And here is an image just after two bomb impacts showing an opening in the ground glowing from an internal explosion...

    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Vlcsna11

    Note the small puff of dust on top where the first bomb hit and it has exploded inside the ground leading to the flash of light coming out of the tunnel facing the camera...
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    Post  GarryB on Tue May 14, 2019 12:54 pm

    Actually, watching the video in slow motion I actually only see three bomb hits and all three seem to be penetrator bombs.

    In this late photo you can see the other two hits, and the first photo shows the first hit...

    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Vlcsna12
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    Post  Isos on Sat Jun 29, 2019 1:30 pm

    It seems Russia is testing something very new and very powerfull to jamm GPS in Syria.


    avi scharf
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    > Israeli pilots insist what's new is GPS spoofing, not the common jamming. 'Suddenly the plane tells me I'm over Jerusalem hills, and I have to pull up'
    If I understand correctly, this affects low alt flights, not en-route (ie EU-Jordan).
    1/3
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    Post  Isos on Sat Jun 29, 2019 7:17 pm

    Syrian Military Capabilities
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    ·
    1h
    Since the jamming wave started against the Israelis
    Their air force vanished from the skies over #Jordan and #Lebanon
    Even their long range recon-jets are yet to show up

    Seems like the #Russia doesn’t want anyone to see the upgrades in #Syria.




    Syrian Military Capabilities
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    ·
    1h
    *the latest Israeli strike against Syria put the Russian forces in danger
    And i assume Israel didn’t warn Russia about it.
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    Post  Isos on Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:57 pm

    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Eajkwt10
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    Post  0nillie0 on Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:20 pm

    Isos wrote:Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Eajkwt10

    A boatload of cheap 30 year old bombs and a hand full of bombers is all the RuAF needs to get the job done (partly due to the SVP-24 system).
    The readiness rate and sheer amount of sorties done over the past years must have other nations scratching their balding heads.
    A stark reminder of what is to come for those in Idlib fighting on the wrong side.

    Awesome picture in more ways than one.
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    Post  Isos on Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:29 am

    Looking at the left side of the picture, we may think that biggest threat to russian soldiers are russian soldiers ...
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:35 am

    This is looking in to a ship is it?

    I suspect they stacked them all up for shipping and on the way some have fallen or moved during the voyage.

    Obviously they wont be fused so the only risk they represent is their significant mass and the threat of falling on someone, but seeing as how they appear to be ODAB-500, 500kg FAE bombs, while the weapons to the right that are more gray than white look like cluster bomb shells.... RBK-500U, which may or may not have any cluster munitions inside, I rather doubt any will be lifted out by hand...
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    Post  d_taddei2 on Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:09 pm

    on a similar subject these bombs do looked aged, makes me wonder how much munitions (soviet) Russia has left in storage, i'd imagine 90% of whats been used in Syria is Soviet stock, quite a few tochka, have been used and i cant imagine Russia making any more be interesting to see what munitions are either depleted or nearing deletion. I'd imagine 160mm mortars, 180mm artillery, 85mm, 76mm shells, and 37mm will likely be depleted in Syria if not both Syria and Russia. I dont think many FROG-7 have been fired going by reports over the years been mostly Tochka i think thats mostly down to the fact FROG-7 accuracy is terrible. But i cant think of a better way for Russia to get rid of aging munitions than using them on terrorist scum. And as mentioned the SVP-24 system this actually has been a fairly cheap (in munitions) for Russia, had the west been doing something similar it would likely cost them tenfold. Also the fact Syria was already using Soviet systems has allowed Russia to supply them with old aging stock without any great cost (transport only).
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:46 pm

    0nillie0 wrote:
    Isos wrote:Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Eajkwt10

    A boatload of cheap 30 year old bombs and a hand full of bombers is all the RuAF needs to get the job done (partly due to the SVP-24 system).
    The readiness rate and sheer amount of sorties done over the past years must have other nations scratching their balding heads.  
    A stark reminder of what is to come for those in Idlib fighting on the wrong side.

    Awesome picture in more ways than one.

    Even the newly built iron bombs are still cheap. Fab-500's are like $2,500-$5,000 a piece....that could easily be just as much or even cheaper than the kit provided to the FSA/Al Nusra/ISIL rats. So a Fab-500 bomb (that costs $5k) could potentially kill a couple dozen militants in a building. 24 militants with $5k gear each equates to $120k. That's a factor of 1-to-24, so it really makes the FAB-500's with SVP-24 extremely cost effective!
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:01 am

    I rather suspect if they were using Soviet stocks of bombs that they would be using the oldest models first, so it does not really surprise me if they look a bit aged.

    In footage of the Backfires doing their thing I notice they have changed from the old 1954 model bombs designed for internal carriage to the newer more streamlined model 1962 bombs even when internally carried... so they might have used up their very old bombs, but I rather suspect they have quite a lot left over and could continue supplying munitions for some time to come...

    Obviously being just Russia not all Soviet stocks were stored on their territory, most of the forward deployed stuff went to the baltic states and ukraine and belarus, but I am sure there is lots of munitions there, and the capacity to make rather more if needed.
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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:16 pm

    Russia lacks attack drone Iran, China, Turkey, Israel, EU, the US use. Attack drone can immediately terminate spotted targets. Vital to counter terror. Until Orion E is deployed in Syria, whenever that might be, Russia should not launch another Hama offensive and waste SAA lives.

    Iran Shahed 129 attack drone vital to anti ISIS war in eastern Syria in 2017 which made Russia job much easier.

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    Post  Mindstorm on Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:52 pm



    I repost here (from post 825 of Syria War News) because it appear that this "virus" circulating about the supposed role played bu UAVs in strike missions in COIN missions is still present.......



    Except for theatres of war where availability of air bases ,of the right size and typology ,positioned at useful range from the expected area of operation is scarce (or where political placet for large scale deployment of personell, equipment, weapons and aircraft on foreign soil is not provided by local administrations) the percentage of use of manned aircraft as strike platform and, even more, the amount of ammunition delivered in comparison with percentage of sortie on the total is crushingly lopsided in favour of manned aircraft , particularly obviously in bomber aircraft favour.

    This is the statistic infographic provided in 2016's speach of USAF Lt. Gen. John Raymond to explain US Air Force platform employment in OIR mission.


    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Ce0m7_11




    MQ-1s -Predator-and MQ-9s -Reaper- accounted together for 33% (about 1/3) of the total sorties but only 7% (about 1/14) of the ordnance released !  , even more the percentage of success (number of enemy personell/equipment destroyed for single weapon delivered over the planned ones) of striking mission conducted by unmanned platform is also ,by CENTCOM data, the lower among those employed in Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq and Syria (52% against the 89% of B-1s bombers and 78% of F-15Es).

    So much for all this debate about the supposed central role of UAVs as strike platform in western Air Forces and even more a supposed game-changing efficiency effect in anti-insurgency operations.......

    We can add here that where combined ground/air operation is taken into consideration the ratio of enemy personell and equipment destroyed/captured (and for ground troops enemy surrending/laying down arms) is usually at least 5-6:1 in favour of ground operations.

    UAV and UCAV at today offer only two, but profitable, advantages to Air Forces employing them : persistence and significantly lower cost for flight's hour, for this reason thiers usual mission (over 80% of missions also in Air Forces having ones capable to deliver weapons) is ISR, nothing more nothing less.

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    Post  ultimatewarrior on Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:47 pm

    Mindstorm wrote:

    I repost here (from post 825 of Syria War News) because it appear that this "virus" circulating about the supposed role played bu UAVs in strike missions in COIN missions is still present.......



    Except for theatres of war where availability of air bases ,of the right size and typology ,positioned at useful range from the expected area of operation is scarce (or where political placet for large scale deployment of personell, equipment, weapons and aircraft on foreign soil is not provided by local administrations) the percentage of use of manned aircraft as strike platform and, even more, the amount of ammunition delivered in comparison with percentage of sortie on the total is crushingly lopsided in favour of manned aircraft , particularly obviously in bomber aircraft favour.

    This is the statistic infographic provided in 2016's speach of USAF Lt. Gen. John Raymond to explain US Air Force platform employment in OIR mission.


    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Ce0m7_11




    MQ-1s -Predator-and MQ-9s -Reaper- accounted together for 33% (about 1/3) of the total sorties but only 7% (about 1/14) of the ordnance released !  , even more the percentage of success (number of enemy personell/equipment destroyed for single weapon delivered over the planned ones) of striking mission conducted by unmanned platform is also ,by CENTCOM data, the lower among those employed in Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq and Syria (52% against the 89% of B-1s bombers and 78% of F-15Es).

    So much for all this debate about the supposed central role of UAVs as strike platform in western Air Forces and even more a supposed game-changing efficiency effect in anti-insurgency operations.......

    We can add here that where combined ground/air operation is taken into consideration the ratio of enemy personell and equipment destroyed/captured (and for ground troops enemy surrending/laying down arms) is usually at least 5-6:1 in favour of ground operations.

    UAV and UCAV at today offer only two, but profitable, advantages to Air Forces employing them : persistence and significantly lower cost for flight's hour, for this reason thiers usual mission (over 80% of missions also in Air Forces having ones capable to deliver weapons) is ISR, nothing more nothing less.


    Wrong. Attack drones don't use jet fuel. Gas is way cheaper. Calling in a jet plane after spotting it with drone is costly and allows terrorists to escape. Attack drone is all the rage these days. Just because Russia don't have attack drone does not justify Russia should diss attack drone. Ask Turks and Iranians how they beat YPG and ISIS so easily? Not because of manned jets but because of attack drones.

    The vast majority of mobile targets are destroyed by drones. Calling in an attack jet after spotting a group of men is simply not going to work. It takes 30 minutes. By that time the men are all gone. Hard targets can be taken out by a bomber. Small mobile targets are best left to attack drones.

    According to that chart B-1 flew the most sorties. You don't see B-1 bombing a single guy or a group of guys. They use attack drone for that. Russia lacks attack drone.
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    ATLASCUB

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    Post  ATLASCUB on Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:19 pm

    The only reason Idlib is still standing is because of Politics. Not because there is a lack of capabilities to do so, or because it's somewhat costly to do so (it's not). It's a cakewalk compared to Aleppo.

    Russia continues to play the political game with Turkey and the U.S, waiting for Turkey to confront the U.S since Russia itself is unwilling to do so and escalate the situation. The PKK (aka SDF, aka YPG) provide the friction point. Turkey doesn't want to anger its master, and the only reigning hegemon on the planet - the consequences when you do so are severe (sanctions, economic raiding, internal political destabilization, missery, coups and chaos). Not every country is a giant nation, rich like Russia. Turkey is not Russia, nor China. It's sort of like Iran, a middle-tier player - they don't want to be the next Iran. Moreover the Turkish society hasn't been molded into a resistance society by its leadership. It's a society that's divided among blocks that practices western politiking to a T, with lots of western inclined elites (traitors a plenty) thus extremely vulnerable and also heavily exposed to western financing. Erdogan knows this, as does the U.S and everyone in the game. Which is why the Turks continue to bark at the U.S but don't bite...

    Since the problem isn't going away with the PKK.... Russia simply waits and waits and waits... hoping for that friction to boil over before making a move on Idlib on a calculated swap with the Turks.

    All these little discussions about capabilities are missing the forest from the trees.
    ultimatewarrior
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    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13 - Page 31 Empty Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  ultimatewarrior on Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:08 pm

    ATLASCUB wrote:The only reason Idlib is still standing is because of Politics. Not because there is a lack of capabilities to do so, or because it's somewhat costly to do so (it's not). It's a cakewalk compared to Aleppo.

    Russia continues to play the political game with Turkey and the U.S, waiting for Turkey to confront the U.S since Russia itself is unwilling to do so and escalate the situation. The PKK (aka SDF, aka YPG) provide the friction point. Turkey doesn't want to anger its master, and the only reigning hegemon on the planet - the consequences when you do so are severe (sanctions, economic raiding, internal political destabilization, missery, coups and chaos). Not every country is a giant nation, rich like Russia. Turkey is not Russia, nor China. It's sort of like Iran, a middle-tier player - they don't want to be the next Iran. Moreover the Turkish society hasn't been molded into a resistance society by its leadership. It's a society that's divided among blocks that practices western politiking to a T, with lots of western inclined elites (traitors a plenty) thus extremely vulnerable and also heavily exposed to western financing. Erdogan knows this, as does the U.S and everyone in the game. Which is why the Turks continue to bark at the U.S but don't bite...

    Since the problem isn't going away with the PKK.... Russia simply waits and waits and waits... hoping for that friction to boil over before making a move on Idlib on a calculated swap with the Turks.

    All these little discussions about capabilities are missing the forest from the trees.

    Turks are allied with Yanks. They play good cop bad cop. Turkey buy S-400 give them to Yanks Yanks give Turks F-35 to kill Russians.

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