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    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  GarryB on Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:40 am

    And if an Israeli or a 3rd country passenger plane is shot down by mistake in Israeli or intl. airspace, or derbies kill civilians on the ground, those countries would then be justified to bomb Syrian AD sites.

    If that passenger plane is emitting a civilian transponder code like it should be there is no chance of that happening.

    This is not just the addition of some new more capable missiles (S-300)... this is the addition of a unified integrated air defence network...

    And besides they are bombing Syrian AD sites anyway... every cruise missile attack includes airfields and air defence bases...

    Thus, they won't be chasing them into Israeli airspace for their own good.

    They didn't have the capability previously... but now they should be able to see well into Israeli airspace and they have the same rights to "Self Defence" as Israel does... if that costs a few Israeli civilians their lives then so what... when Syrian civilians get killed Israel just blames Hamas and Assad, so Syria can just blame Netenyahu and the Israeli military.

    Don't agree on that. From the moment you engage in acts of war with another country, the consequences of retaliation (especially if commensurate and justified like shooting down the attacking plane after launching a missile) are to be borne by the aggressor, period. It can be spin into whatever madness MSM wants but that does not constitute an element of international law. And given the IAF is only using standoff weapons (of increasing range and speed), the only option Syria has is to attack them even outside of their air space.

    Well to think otherwise would be to argue that if a Tu-160 is flying in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and launches a Kh-101 and it hits a target in the US that the US cannot reasonably try to shoot down that Tu-160 because it did it in international air space.

    The fact is that these Israeli aircraft might be operating in international airspace or over Israeli airspace, but what they are doing is actually an act of war so attempts to shoot them down are perfectly legitimate.

    These S-300V systems however need high ground to maximize its coverage. Still bit worried on low altitude penetration.

    Low altitude would be a problem for most large SAM systems... I suspect they might use SA-3s for low altitude threats... but of course with an IADS they could deploy units with MANPADS and low altitude AA systems on likely flightpaths...

    TOR and Pantsir will deal with any very low flying threats going up against the main SAMs or radars or HQs.
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    Isos

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Isos on Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:51 am

    Video of the delivry of s-300. They are not V4 version but PMU. They also gave reloads which means not only 16 missiles but much more which normal.

    https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201810031068540236-s300-syria-deliveries/

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    eehnie

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  eehnie on Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:43 pm

    As commented before it is logical that some components of the export variant be delivered now in order to complete the contracted units. Also it is likely that some aditional components to use as spare parts be delivered (radars and something else).

    What has been moved now would not be complete units, but components to complete the previous order. With 4 launchers delivered, it is obvious that Syria had before some launchers, and likely some complete unit in service.

    This is the minimal, now confirmed. More than this is very likely.

    Israel is being neutralized as a conventional and nuclear threat for Russia and its allied countries of the region.


    mnztr

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  mnztr on Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:40 pm

    so I read only 4 transporters, that is 16 missiles ready to launch? Is that about it? I thought it was supposed to be 24 and 96 ready to launch?
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    BKP

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  BKP on Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:45 pm

    ^The "96 total launch tubes" seems to have been based on Twitter reports, which, obviously, are often dubious. The 4 delivered launchers is all we know for certain at this point. More could appear by the stated Oct. 20 setup date, but that is, again, speculation.

    It could be that that's all there is for now in terms of S-300 specifically. The Russians may be intending to leave plenty of room for escalation in terms of such deliveries depending on Israel's next moves.
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    medo

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  medo on Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:50 pm

    24 launchers is for whole brigade of S-300PMU. 4 launchers is strange number as usuall S-300PMU battalion have 6 launchers. maybe this is what is transported by plane for now, the rest could come with a ship.
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    BKP

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  BKP on Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:56 pm

    Aaaand... speaking of Israel's next moves:

    BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:10 P.M.) – Israel will use their F-35L stealth fighter jets in Syria, Galei Tzahel (Israeli Army radio) reported on Wednesday.

    According to the Galei Tzahel report, the decision to use the F-35 comes in response to the Russian Federation’s decision to supply Syria with the S-300 air defense system.

    https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/israel-will-use-f-35-fighter-jets-in-syria-after-s-300-delivery-report/

    Which leads to:

    The US Military-Industrial Complex’s Worst Nightmare: The S-300 May Destroy and Expose the F-35

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/09/30/us-military-industrial-complex-worst-nightmare-s300-may-destroy-expose-f35.html

    Vann7

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Vann7 on Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:52 pm

    BKP wrote:
    The US Military-Industrial Complex’s Worst Nightmare: The S-300 May Destroy and Expose the F-35

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/09/30/us-military-industrial-complex-worst-nightmare-s300-may-destroy-expose-f35.html

    Yep.. if Israel gets their F-35 easily shot down by S-300 , the entire program will collapse , it sales..  
    Why would NATO allies spend a fortune on a plane ,that their competition easily detect and shot down?

    There was a picture , i posted earlier an F-22 in Syria ,that was detected and locked by an Su-35..
    Just a couple of F-35 shot down.. will be enough to cancel the entire project and they will instead work
    on much cheaper combat plane with low signature and strong electronics resistant to jamming..

    Russia military told on sputnik that the process of Upgrading Syrian air defenses will end by the end of October..
    so is possible we will see many more S-300s and more backup defenses too...

    When it comes to Russia policy in Syria.. is unfortunate ,that still Russia allows Israel to fly near Syria and
    do not declare a full no fly zone to Israel airforce across the entire Lebanon-Syria airspace and waters...
    So if Israel is allowed to fly over parts of lebanon.. their planes will be just 20km of Syrian border.. it means
    very little time for any air defense to respond a mass saturation attack. So it means Russia will risk losing more
    serviceman and even one battery of S-300 destroyed.. if properly identified through satellite and ground intelligence their positions.. So effectively Russia policy will be of returning fire.. through Syria military...
    but is a return of fire.. means Israel will be allowed to position its planes for an attack on Syria ,and only after israel launch an attack.. Syria will return fire.. This is incredibly stupid.... Only a zero tolerance policy and a no fly zone for Israel military at any place over Syria and Lebanon and their waters ,will push farther Israel airforce and block any use of their glide bombs... if force to fly too far..

    later the most ignorants will be saying S-300s "dont work".. if Israel bombs again any piece of land in Syria.. Reality is no technology in the world ,will work if it is not used.. the way it was designed to be used , for political reasons.. Only a no fly zone for Israel ,ordering to shoot at any Israel plane that comes ~100km of distance from Syria or a major war , where Russia switch to OFFENSE and start attacking Israel airforce as soon their planes take off from their airports.. only those two policies ,could truly show the capabilities of S-300s defenses. when used
    as Very long Range interceptors.. and not as short range ones.
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    BKP

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  BKP on Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:38 pm

    ^Explicitly declared no-fly zone may yet come to pass. Seems pretty clear we're now on the escalation ladder. Buckle up.

    I'd say it's presumptuous to be overly certain how things will go down the next time things go kinetic. We just don't know all the cards each side will be holding.

    However, it's probably not at all far fetched to assume that US planners will be working with Iz on whatever comes next, especially if F-35 is involved. F-35 now makes this a big-time high-risk business war. Of course, along with that business comes long-term contracts and continuing influence...

    For their part, the Russians will have well digested past lessons, such as Mole Cricket 19. They're going to be taking steps to thwart such scenarios with strategies and some technologies we're not informed of.

    There's also always the potential for the spooky side of things to complicate the picture behind the scene: spies, infiltrators, intercepts, etc. All together, shit is doubtlessly getting intense.

    mnztr

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  mnztr on Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:06 pm

    The F35 from a radar signature perspective could be very vulnerable to S300 especially from side and rear. The Russians will probably track what is inbound from their S400 radars, so if stealth planes are inbound they may not see them until they are quite close (unless they are using their Long wave radar) they might choose to not defend against the attack, but only switch on as the planes egress the launch zone, in which case the S300s can be stationed well forward of the radars so the Mach 5 missiles will have the speed and range to overhaul the relatively slow F-35s as they try to escape. Its gonna be hair raising to see how this unfolds.

    Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E on Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:34 am

    Isos wrote:Video of the delivry of s-300. They are not V4 version but PMU. They also gave reloads which means not only 16 missiles but much more which normal.

    https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201810031068540236-s300-syria-deliveries/


    30H6E2 from S-300PMU2, PM other PM2 with C-3?
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:37 am

    The closure of the sky over Syria is fraught with big war
    Transfer of the S-300 to Damascus is a message to both Tel Aviv and Washington
    The fact that the training of Syrian personnel will take some time will not affect the rapid combat readiness of the S-300 complex. At the first stage, the air defense system will be served by highly qualified Russian specialists. In the future, the Syrian anti-aircraft gunners will take over, and to guarantee the reliability of their work, control by the Russians is necessary. It is worth mentioning that in the military environment often the human factor influences the development of events. If Syrian peveoshniki will make the same mistakes as at present, and Russian experts do not control their work, there is a possibility of the development of a “chain of dramatic events” that will lead to the outbreak of a major war in the Middle East region. ..if Moscow provides a no-fly zone over the Syrian territory controlled by Damascus, this will mean that Iran and Hezbollah will have their hands free under the protection of Russian EW, Air Defense and S-300 air defense systems provided by the Kremlin to Bashar Assad. With such a development of the situation, Tel Aviv will never reconcile and will act with lightning speed.
    A number of prominent political scientists indicate that the transfer of the S-300 and the ACS to Damascus, as well as the intensification of the work of Russian EW facilities in the Syrian coastal zone, is primarily a message to the United States and to those countries whose warships and aircraft took part in missile strikes on Syria retaliation for the alleged use of chemical weapons by Bashar Asad against the armed opposition. Moscow has already notified its Western partners that it is aware of the preparation of an imitation of a new chemical attack in the province of Idlib, the consequence of which will be a new rocket attack. Given this, the statement of the Russian Minister of Defense can be viewed as a response to the next direction of Washington and a number of NATO countries of their warships to the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea.

    Will Russia be able to create a reliable air defense system in Syria?
    “We have significantly strengthened and turned on the electronic warfare system. Added additional equipment there. As a result, today we control the near zone up to 50 km and the far zone — the main direction from which we entered the Syrian territory, “We control 200 km,” Shoigu told the Security Council meeting. He stressed that by October 20, work will be completed on the establishment of a unified air defense command and control system.
    It must be admitted that the Russian military made difficult commitments, a very short time to debug the network-centric control system. In addition, Shoigu mentioned that only four launchers were delivered. That is, we are still talking about the formal transfer to Damascus of only one C-300 battery.
    Previously, the media has already published information (not confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation) that it is planned to supply two regimental sets of S-300. Experts explain that the data of the air defense system, coupled with an automated control system, will work in a single information field with the Russian air defense systems, which will ensure interaction between them. Experts believe that for reliable air defense of the entire Syrian territory, it is necessary from six to eight divisions of this complex in combination with other air defense systems (the Pantsir-S1 missile and artillery complexes, military Buk-M1 / 2E air defense missile systems and outdated air defense systems, which are already in service with the Syrian air defense forces). It is assumed that Russia will transfer to its ally the brigade automated control systems (ACS) “Baikal-1ME”, “Polyana-D4M1”.
    If you manage to create and debug a modern air defense system in Syria, then difficult times will come for Israeli F16 fighters; There are ammunition, which, according to experts, will still pose a serious threat. From the entire list of those, the following are distinguished: the AGM-88E AARGM anti-radar missile, the ATACMS and LORA tactical ballistic missiles. In addition, it should be borne in mind that there are 12 fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets in service with Israel.
    According to the Russian Defense Ministry, a powerful group of EW facilities is being created to conduct radio-technical suppression of military satellites (space navigation aids), aviation, ship groups that pose a threat to military objects of the CAA and Russian videoconferencing systems. Experts suggest that the following complexes will be involved: 1L269 "Krasukha-2", 1L257 "Krasukha-4", R-330ZH "Resident", R-330M1P "Diabazol", etc. In addition to the above, according to the adviser to the first deputy general director of the concern "Radio technology "Vladimir Mikheev, to fight the drones are created systems of electromagnetic weapons (microwave guns), which already" exist and are developing very effectively. " True, the introduction of their base samples is expected only in 2019.
    Politicians in Israel and the United States have expressed concern over the creation by Moscow of a new air defense system in Syria. The military of these countries do not see any particular problems for themselves. First, in their opinion, the dialogue already established between them and the Russian General Staff will allow to avoid a direct collision. Secondly, if necessary, the Pentagon and the IDF are able to create a grouping of forces and means for an air attack, so powerful that the Syrian air defense system, even if it works in conjunction with the Russian Aerospace Forces grouping, adjusted by the Russians, will not endure a massive strike & will be destroyed. Due to the remoteness of the theater of operations from the supply structure, Moscow will not be able to compensate the losses in a short time.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LORA_(missile) Images

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MGM-140_ATACMS

    Time will tell!
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    Stealthflanker

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Stealthflanker on Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:27 am

    So, any idea on potential place to put the battery yet ?

    From what i see so far it seems Tiyas AFB looks potential.



    As :
    1.It covers most Govt controlled area, at least against conventional aerial targets
    2.It essentially almost free from civilian aircrafts as major airlines wont cross there.


    -----
    Placing the battery anywhere else might be difficult due to mountainous geography of Mediterranean side of Syria. The thing however Israeli aircrafts making use of those mountain to hide might put their planes shaking due to turbulence or need to fly at most 3000 m to avoid mountain while hopefully remain concealed to some early warning radars. Or flying over sea like what they usually do which essentially bypass most if not all Syrian SAM's.

    Other thing there is my estimate on range of 30N6E and possibly Nebo SVU VHF Radar against F-35 with assumed RCS of 0.001 sqm. In VHF band however with frequency of 170 MHz, it will become about 0.094 sqm due to natural resonance and RCS-wavelength dependency.
    An important thing in my estimates is Multipath propagation. Taking account of that phenomenon, with some helpful insights from ausairpower i arrived at detection range of 105 km for 90% probability of detection.

    This is my approximates of Nebo SVU. Oh and it also assume Sector scan where the antenna is stopped and the beam is electronically scanned.






    The 30N6 follows same process and the range would be 70 Km.

    So basically with Israel think to use their F-35.. 1 battery is definitely not enough for good coverage.
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    JohninMK

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  JohninMK on Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:28 am

    The Syrian S-300 doesn't need to bother about west of the mountains as there are the sea level RuAF S-300/400 systems for that. Also the RuAF S-400 at 1300m in the mountains fills in a few radar shadow areas.
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    Stealthflanker

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Stealthflanker on Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:58 pm

    JohninMK wrote:The Syrian S-300 doesn't need to bother about west of the mountains as there are the sea level RuAF S-300/400 systems for that. Also the RuAF S-400 at 1300m in the mountains fills in a few radar shadow areas.

    Yeah, if those system can help shoot anything.
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    Isos

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Isos on Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:02 pm

    JohninMK wrote:The Syrian S-300 doesn't need to bother about west of the mountains as there are the sea level RuAF S-300/400 systems for that. Also the RuAF S-400 at 1300m in the mountains fills in a few radar shadow areas.

    In those 49 vehicled they have probably delivered more pantsir S2. If they have sent the longer range missiles with them its gonna be a big surprise for israel.
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    Isos

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Isos on Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:33 pm

    http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/air-defence-systems/radar-and-electro-optical-equipment-for-air-target-detection/1l122-1e/

    Or newer version

    http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/air-defence-systems/radar-and-electro-optical-equipment-for-air-target-detection/1l122-2e/

    Something like that would be usefull in mountains. Could be connected to the IADS to cover s-300's dead zones.
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    Isos

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Isos on Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:31 pm

    https://mobile.twitter.com/warsmonitoring/status/1047838175501148160

    B-52 intercepted by a sukhoi over Syria. Picture from the OLS.

    Vann7

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Vann7 on Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:37 pm

    Isos wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/warsmonitoring/status/1047838175501148160

    B-52 intercepted by a sukhoi over Syria. Picture from the OLS.


    Russia needs to be careful ... Americans can use the B-52 dinosaur , for a false flag...
    and fly it over Syria , shot it down with a bomb inside ,when is passing over Americans controlled
    zone.. they will control the crime scene and will say S-300 did it.. and  then blame Assad and Russia for it... and deviate the attention of the world ,from the Russian plane shootdown by Israel..

    later people should not say they were not warned about FALSE FLAGS with planes...
    is a matter of time.. and the B-52 or any civilian airliner could be perfect for the job ,
    for maximum public outrage..

    NATO can easily train ISIS terrorist to pilot one B-52.. and they will be happy to sacrifice
    their lives for virgins in heaven promises..  i will be surprised if we don't see a false flag in this year ,
    in Syria with Russia and Assad blamed for the shot down of a big plane.

    it will be also wise that the sukhois keep distance.. there could be bomb inside rigged to explode ,
    in the B-52..
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:37 am

    USA to deploy F-22 stealth fighters in Syria to counter Russia's S-300
    I guess they don't trust the F-35s!
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  GarryB on Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:43 pm

    When you guys talk about radar and missile range for the S-300... you are aware that it is the addition of an IADS that is really the important development... it would tie all the countries radars into a network that can see all sorts of things... the question is... is it linked to the Russian network there so it can see what they see with S-400 as well as A-50 etc etc...

    I rather suspect the Israelis will say they have just completed ten recon missions over Syria with their F-35s and the Russians didn't even see them... of course they didn't mention the 200 odd strikes they made over the last couple of years because they don't normally talk about their violations of Syrian airspace.

    Vann... regarding that B-52 conspiracy.... look at this:

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/09/19/israel-failed-attempt-start-wwiii-beginning-end-syria.html

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    JohninMK

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  JohninMK on Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:57 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:USA to deploy F-22 stealth fighters in Syria to counter Russia's S-300
    I guess they don't trust the F-35s!
    Can't find the Drive article that was based on. Anyway F-22s are already there on rotation. A pair of tankers have been dragging four of them home today.

    Russia would love to have them there in full stealth mode, lots of data opportunities.


    avi scharf
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    Spotted - o/h Israel from the Gulf heading W
    Two USAF KC-10 tankers escorting 4 X USAF F-22 (with external fuel tank?)
    All callsig
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    Isos

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Isos on Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:41 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Tsavo Lion wrote:USA to deploy F-22 stealth fighters in Syria to counter Russia's S-300
    I guess they don't trust the F-35s!
    Can't find the Drive article that was based on. Anyway F-22s are already there on rotation. A pair of tankers have been dragging four of them home today.

    Russia would love to have them there in full stealth mode, lots of data opportunities.


    avi scharf
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    Spotted - o/h Israel from the Gulf heading W
    Two USAF KC-10 tankers escorting 4 X USAF F-22 (with external fuel tank?)
    All callsig

    They have intercepted many time f-22. They were probably in full stealth mode because if not they could have been destroyed by syrian air defences and used as propaganda.
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:28 pm

    We will paint, the Syrians will shot down: experts told what will happen to the F-22s

    The US is creating a new state in the Middle East - Sunnistan
    https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2495538.html
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    Tsavo Lion

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:15 pm

    NEW VIDEO: https://twitter.com/zvezdanews/status/1048834891067084800/video/1

    Sponsored content

    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

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