Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

I wonder if they plan to give some igla to Hezbollah in Libanon and hit some israeli f-16 from there. Like with PKK and turkish Cobra helicopter.

The israeli would be scared and would fly high making them visible to s-300 if they attack from south/south west.

This instead is a lot less likely. Not even MiG-29s.

Don't they already have MiG-29SMTs, or was that cancelled too?

As result, the saturation of the Syrian air defense will increase in all the country.

The S-300 is definitely their best system, but an IADS system will make all of their missiles more effective and the air defence of Syria much harder to crack.

When it comes to trying to overwhem such a system you would need a rather enormous amount of threats... I mean last time with each air defence battery operating on its own they managed to get 70% of the incoming threats... even if they only match that again with an IADS against manned platforms that is enough to stop an attack, but in all likelyhood an IADS will dramatically increase the performance of the systems to much higher levels... and if you add an air force into the equation... the detection of a large number of threats in the air means Fighter aircraft can now be launched to intercept without risk of being shot down by this or that battery that does not know what is happening... they will all know what is happening... that is what an IADS is for.

Even with basic AA-2 AAMS a MiG-23 or Su-22 could be vectored to intercept incoming subsonic cruise missiles and easily shoot some down... reducing pressure on SAMs...

Even if that is alot of SAM since Russia will have to provide the other SAMS to protect the S-300's.

Syria already has about 50 Pantsir systems... OK... 49.

The places they were located were obviously worth defending... which suggests whereever they were located you would likely also locate an S-300 battery too... the problem basically resolves itself...

i ask because i saw somewhere that S-300s use different missiles , and the shorter range ones ,are way smaller
and you can pack more in the same place of a long range missile. So was wondering if the 96missiles number
is only for short range missiles.. and not long range.

No, those are S-400 missiles... specifically 9M96 and 9M96D.

Yeap, that’s how I see it being played out too tbh. I doubt a single s-300 missile will be fired at israeli fighters if controlled by the Russians and where the Syrians are in charge of the systems, the Russians will not allow them to attack israeli fighters.

So why is Israel so upset?

Soon you will see how Israel will again attack Syria as Putin is weak.

Yeah, and Russian SAMs are all rubbish... so why all the butt hurt from Israel?

An alternative take is, just like the summons to Moscow last week, this is a summons to Washington to explain why they gave the Russians the opportunity to seriously increase the air defences of Syria putting at risk the 'get Iran' plan.

Or not

That is a good point... S-300s and IADS makes Syrian airspace much more difficult to violate for everyone...

Israel made a big mistake of getting on Russia's bad side, just like Turkey had.

Israel could dominate the battlefield by controlling the airspace... now that is not going to be so easy in places like the Golan heights...

Israel will continue to bomb Syria. Russia will not do anything.

Russia has done something...

Russia has threatened to do this in the past let's see if this time THEY ACTUALLY do what they say they will do.

Well the S-300s seem to be arriving in Syria... that would make their threats seem real.

Of course if what they say is true and these are S-300s for Syria and wont be controlled by Russia then it is a gamble the Israelis are taking hoping that Syrians wont defend their airspace from illegal Israeli incursions.

No way

Russia won't remove Assad, because it is not their choice... they wont remove Iranian forces because it is not their choice... what makes you think they will step up and stop Syrian AD forces from blunting an attack on Syria... because they would be asking those Syrian troops to commit suicide because you can bet your ass that those S-300s will be the target of that attack.

My money is on Israeli attack assets getting shot at... and potential action in response even against Israeli military aircraft still in Israeli airspace or over third party countries...

Arrow wrote:The S-300 will not be transferred to Syria air defence. It's a lie. The S-300 will be served by the Russians so that no Israeli aircraft can be shot down. This is another brilliant game of a weak Putin

Love your confidence, you must have really good contacts in the Russian military or Damascus to be that sure. Please share some more titbits.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Arrow wrote:Israel will continue to bomb Syria. Russia will not do anything.

Russia has threatened to do this in the past let's see if this time THEY ACTUALLY do what they say they will do.

Have you seen the video of the downed turkish helicopter by an Igla that occured 2 or 3 weeks after the attack on the su-24. Israel will lose one or two f-16 for sure.

crod wrote:

Tbh, I wasn’t aware of that. I assumed that his military advisors would describe the lay of the land and he’d make a call based on that. That’s the problem with assumptions I guess.

Its much the same in any large bureaucracy. There are always different power groupings at the top manoeuvring to get their plans actioned. Often one particular group is in charge for a while and when situations change another takes the lead. The only real exception is when the person at the top, the figurehead, is the one who has actually built the organisation and is not beholden to one grouping.

Putin is not such a person, although he has huge personal power at a fundamental level he is still reflecting the fluctuating power blocks of which the military complex is a pretty big one, another being the 'keep in with the US' block. It is the later that seems to have been overruled with the initial response to the Il-20 incident seen as one too many insults to Russian pride and running to high a risk of a supine position leading to more such incidents. In effect, enough was enough and the military, viewed as hard liners, won the day.

This could be the start of a 'tougher' Russian attitude in many fields, reflecting the actuality of their power as they come out of the 90's dip.

JohninMK wrote:

Arrow wrote:The S-300 will not be transferred to Syria air defence. It's a lie. The S-300 will be served by the Russians so that no Israeli aircraft can be shot down. This is another brilliant game of a weak Putin

Love your confidence, you must have really good contacts in the Russian military or Damascus to be that sure. Please share some more titbits.

It's arrow. An Israeli retard.

So russian only need to hack them like iran did with US drone and have access to last israeli drone technology. Nice gift from israel

ELINT News
@ELINTNews
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58m
#UPDATE: In response to Russia providing Syria with S-300 air defence system, Israeli will now begin providing Ukraine with military drones

Or provide Novorussia with anti air missiles and med/high altitude radar (well, Russia can provide target acquisition to Novorussia so).

ELINT News
@ELINTNews
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58m
#UPDATE: In response to Russia providing Syria with S-300 air defence system, Israeli will now begin providing Ukraine with military drones

If the Israelis think ,they will change anything in the ground in Ukraine with their drones , after NATO failed.
Israel still have been unable to weaken Syria or Russia in Syria ,that are right at their borders,why they believe
they will succeed at Russian borders ,that Russia have unlimited resources and capabilities.    

All that Israel have gained with their unfriendly actions towards Russia and Syria ,is to weaken their own NATION security , Since now Russia will be supplying Syria with stronger air defenses and will be helping them to lock on
Israeli planes.. Israel will get planes shot down , when they less expect it.. flying over the coast of Israel will not be safe anymore.. Neyanyahu plane even can be shot down....by Hezbolah and Syria operating S-300s.. Good job israelis..  

Isos wrote:So russian only need to hack them like iran did with US drone and have access to last israeli drone technology. Nice gift from israel  

ELINT News
@ELINTNews
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58m
#UPDATE: In response to Russia providing Syria with S-300 air defence system, Israeli will now begin providing Ukraine with military drones

Israel was already arming Ukraine, the Mossad was arming and training Nazi death squads in Ukraine before Russia got involved in Syria.

IMO, Hezbollah won't be getting any S-300s, but the Lebanon army could.
Giving air-defense system to Syria threatens broader war Even if Iran is bombed by Israel & US, Russia will benefit by its weakening. The proverbial Monkey King (or Czar) will climb down its tree after watching these 2 tigers kill/maim each other & claim the spoils.
US disarm in the Middle East They may be moved to Israel &/ Saudi Arabia soon.

WTF ? Is it orthodoxe christmas this week or what ?

ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
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4h
#BREAKING: Sources now reporting that in addition to the 6 S-300 battalions, the Syrian Air Defence Forces will receive: 20 Buk M2 systems, 36 Pantsir S1/S2’s, 25 Tor M2-U’s & 15 S-125 2M’s from the Russian military to heavily boost Syria’s air defence capabilities-
@Syrian_SR

https://mobile.twitter.com/warsmonitoring/status/1045017188086829056

Pictures and video in the link. You can scroll yo see more inn the link.

Su-34 with 330(!)combat sorties(different crews), Su-35S 04 red from above with 180 ground strikes, Mig-29SMT with Kab-500KR(latest had 50ground strikes - (link: https://twitter.com/warsmonitoring/status/936987671020343296) twitter.com/warsmonitoring…), and Su-34 cockpit view in night flight

Isos wrote:WTF ? Is it orthodoxe christmas this week or what ?

ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
4h
#BREAKING: Sources now reporting that in addition to the 6 S-300 battalions, the Syrian Air Defence Forces will receive: 20 Buk M2 systems, 36 Pantsir S1/S2’s, 25 Tor M2-U’s & 15 S-125 2M’s from the Russian military to heavily boost Syria’s air defence capabilities-
@Syrian_SR

Welcome to the new stage of the war.

eehnie wrote:

Isos wrote:WTF ? Is it orthodoxe christmas this week or what ?

ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
4h
#BREAKING: Sources now reporting that in addition to the 6 S-300 battalions, the Syrian Air Defence Forces will receive: 20 Buk M2 systems, 36 Pantsir S1/S2’s, 25 Tor M2-U’s & 15 S-125 2M’s from the Russian military to heavily boost Syria’s air defence capabilities-
@Syrian_SR

Welcome to the new stage of the war.

Yep.. Good job for Neyanyahu,.... his attempt to over run Syria with Terrorist backfired big time...
Just think about that for a moment.... Israel will have no way , to even start a war against hezbolah
with a ground invasion of their military ,and provide close air support..   because will have Syrian air defense shooting down their planes if ever get close..to lebanon.. So Hezbolah are the Big Big HUGE winners in this conflict between Russia and ISrael.. thanks to Nutanyahu.  You can't fight ground wars , without close air support for your airforce. and Israel will need to first disable all Syrian airdefenses.. before they can attack hezbolah effectively
in Lebanon. Syria have hundreds of air defenses.. and the only one they hit was an pansir without missiles and also and S-200 radar. they also took down..but that Syrians repaired 2-3 days later..

So is a long long long way to go.. for Israel to weaken Syria capabilities to defend itself..

Now to increase the Pressure , on the Jews.. Russia should give Syria a strong Airforce to Syrian army..
to ambush Israel planes from behind ,whenever they get close to Syria.. with an R-77 missile , Syrian airforce
could shoot down an Israel plane , as soon they take off from their airports..

Another creative way to increase even more the pressure.. 1 brigade of S-300s in Egypt ,near israel border..
and those connected with Syria network.. so can cover 100% of Israel airspace. So not even taking off or landing
will be safe in Israel .. also a major warning to Israel citizens to avoid civilian planes ,because of the tensions
planes could be in danger from military activities.. this will create panic ,in people seeking to spend vacations in Israel and destroy Israel tourism. Russia needs to make sure to keep pressure on israel.. so if Syria will not have peace.. so neither Israel.. that will teach the zioNazi jews to respect Russia and its allies.

In another note.. Trump did not gave all the things Nutanyahu wanted.. Trump spoke about a 2 state solution
for palestine.. So that had to be like a bowl of cold water.. Nutanyahu seemed nervous and with eyes red..
he is cleared scared of a fight with Russia . and his language and body languange ,with Trump.. was one of weakness.. one of Hopes.. that US will help Israel , confront Russia. is hard to tell ,what will US do.. but Netanyahu insecurity of "hoping" , was very evident about US military support , to fight RUssia. If i was going to guess..
US will stay away of the conflict..and will limit only to provide planes and weapons.. to israel.. they know the risk are very high.. of something going very bad.

Isos wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/warsmonitoring/status/1045017188086829056

Pictures and video in the link. You can scroll yo see more inn the link.

Su-34 with 330(!)combat sorties(different crews), Su-35S 04 red from above with 180 ground strikes, Mig-29SMT with Kab-500KR(latest had 50ground strikes - (link: https://twitter.com/warsmonitoring/status/936987671020343296) twitter.com/warsmonitoring…), and Su-34 cockpit view in night flight

that jet almost gives me wood.

FYI, Egypt has the Camp David treaty with Israel & will stay neutral.

Treaties can be broken ^^
specially when in times of cold war or hot war..  United States breaks them all the time..

On another note..

Interesting information... in sputnik news..
when people want to know what the Russian military is thinking.. look no further
than Sputnik news headlines.. but more specially the visual images and the topic being discussed.
And why is this? It is because Russia knows very well , NATO read sputniks every day.. and also Israel too..
so much ,that sometimes Russia makes a report.. about a subjet... and the same article gets updated an hour
later ,with a reply of the Israeli Government ---> to the report.. So consider sputnik news, like some some
kind of back channel ,some of their major page reports .., like an open public Back Channel of Russia ,to
send information to their adversaries like NATO and Israel..

So wanna guess what Russia military /Sputnik ,what messages they were sending to Israel and NATO in an
revived old article released again today.. ??

What message that could be? mmm
 

the message behind the report is clear , to ISRAEL and so NATO too , Don't pick a fight with us ,or you will get destroyed..

The report speak about how a soviet general could detect nuclear launches from US withing seconds..
through Soviet satellite optics.. and how a system error ,gave a false alarm of a nuclear launch.. and he took
the decision to ignore it..because he had many reasons to think ,was a false alarm..

What is important is not the story in reality ,but what capabilities Russia have to detect nuclear launches..
from any part of  the world.. and say and done.. another interesting indirect message/ picture image is in the report ..showing an example of what Russian military can see today ,in their computers..

A clear view of the Middle east , with Israel close to the center of the map in the right image,red sea and persian gulf , any nuclear launches will be seen by Russia military . but so Europe and AFrica. 




So Russia military created this report for sputnik ,very likely  as a warning for Israel ,and NATO that
Russia have powerful nukes and will use them if needed, to not forget that fact and that and can monitor  missile launches including nuclear ballistic ones ,24 hours a day..from any part of middle east and Europe and north Africa
every day ,all the time ,all the year..and that withing seconds.. the general command of the army will know about it.. notice the telephones..

If crazy man ,Nutanyahu choose to launch a Nuclear attack on Syria ,Iran or Russia..
then withing 2-3 seconds they will see it.. the launch of the ballistic missile.. and Putin and the general staff of Russian army will get a quick call ,in a few seconds more.. after confirmation..  So Russia will have ~20 minutes for a counter retaliation nuclear attack at the aggressor., and From Syria ,an Iskander nuclear armed missile will only take 2-3 minutes to strike israel.


Full report here ..

https://sputniknews.com/russia/201809261068358417-officer-missile-launches-false/

I doubt that Israel is suicidal.
But, will SLCMs fired from Red &/Med. Seas at Syria be detected?

Tsavo Lion wrote:I doubt that Israel is suicidal.
But, will SLCMs fired from Red &/Med. Seas at Syria be detected?

yep..

Russia detected one ballistic missile launch in 2012-2013 from Israel submarine..
and it made headlines on RT and SPutnik news.. go figure out..  then Israel denied the incident first..
but then the US  told , it was a "military exercise" with Israel..  This incident happened when Obama red line
of launching cruise missiles.. but didn't do it.. and offered Putin a way out , by removing the chemical weapons
stockpiles from Syria..  Russian satellites even captured , a rocket attack inside Syria from Rebels to civilian zone
and they used the images for United States ,to proof ,there was terrorist in the rebels..

I doubt that Israel is suicidal

If attacking a Russian military plane with 15 serviceman was not suicidal , because they ambushed it.. and
intentionally caused its destruction.. then no idea what definition of suicidal is.. Israel also have been aiding
ISIS to over run Syria.. so that will quality as crazy lunatics..

Israel doesn't have SLBMs, but has SLCMs. Their SSKs r too small for SLBMs.
They thought that if & when the Syrians screwed up, Israel won't be blamed.
Also, it could be a trick to drive a wedge between them & Russia.
Honest mistake on their part! They supported rebel groups & the Kurds only because those tried to remove Assad, an Iranian ally. The ISIS is not monolithic: some rebels split & joined other groups over the years.
Using proxies isn't suicidal, by any stretch!
Netanyahu gave a new characterization of the Il-20 crash
The expert explained why the US withdraws its SAMs from the Middle East
"They cost billions, but do not have practical application."