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    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  GarryB on Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:03 am

    I wouldn't trust Trump.

    He might genuinely want an end to the war but he has so many people against him in the US including people in his own party he would not be able to deliver on any promises anyway.

    Ignore the US and just work with Turkey, Syria, Russia, the Kurds and Iran and ignore everyone else.

    The only other group is the US and west supported terrorists which don't have any future in the country unless they turn back to Assads forces.

    The kurds can probably be turned to join Assads forces because their alternative is with the US and the US tends to abandon allies when it no longer suits their interests to continue spending money.

    As long as Assad can assure Turkey that there will be no independent Kurdish states on their border I think they will likely give up the Syrian land they have seized to an assad government that was no threat to them... unlike Kurd controlled land wanting to expand into Turkey...

    Iranian support for assad means it has earned its position at the table and for the same reasons Russia should be there and of course Assad.

    Turkey is a neighbour and the Kurds are involved too... there is no need for anyone else to legitimately get involved in finding a solution.

    America does not want a solution and neither does ISIS or Daesh.


    Last edited by GarryB on Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:05 am; edited 1 time in total
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    eehnie

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  eehnie on Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:04 pm

    GarryB wrote:I would trust Trump.

    This sounds like a joke.

    In the refered to Turkey, Russia has been receiving drone attacks from the area of Idlib, and Turkey does nothing to stop it.

    Like the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, Turkey is in the side of the losers in this war, and neither will have benefits.

    The doubt in the case of US, Israel and Turkey is only about the size of the loses, still to be determined.


    par far

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  par far on Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:29 pm

    Here is a 1 hour 32 minute video(watch the full video) on how Russia changed the Syrian conflict.

    https://southfront.org/russian-military-campaign-in-syria-2015-2018/






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    BKP

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  BKP on Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:54 am

    par far wrote:Here is a 1 hour 32 minute video(watch the full video) on how Russia changed the Syrian conflict.

    https://southfront.org/russian-military-campaign-in-syria-2015-2018/

    Does anyone here know who hell southfront are exactly? I don't know myself, but that report is a stellar piece of work, imo. It's so unfortunate that the vast majority of people I might think to share it with will just see it as further evidence that I'm an obsessed weirdo. That piece telescopes a great deal of what is relevant into 90 or so minutes.

    eehnie wrote:In the refered to Turkey, Russia has been receiving drone attacks from the area of Idlib, and Turkey does nothing to stop it.

    Like the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, Turkey is in the side of the losers in this war, and neither will have benefits.

    The doubt in the case of US, Israel and Turkey is only about the size of the loses, still to be determined.

    If I remember right, you're a citizen of a country that has historical antipathy toward Turkey. I sympathize with that, but unfortunately Turkey is a country that for several reasons has cards to play in regard to shaping the final outcome of this conflict. So, unfortunately, their interests will have to be accommodated, within reason of course.
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    Big_Gazza

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Big_Gazza on Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:28 am

    BKP wrote:I sympathize with that, but unfortunately Turkey is a country that for several reasons has cards to play in regard to shaping the final outcome of this conflict. So, unfortunately, their interests will have to be accommodated, within reason of course.

    The big picture of course is that with the current hubristic demands of the Exceptional Nation that Turkey obey their Master, and the economic sabotage being used to inflict the "price tag" for disobedience, the potential exists for clever diplomacy to cause a schism in HATO and engineer the Turks to cross the floor and ally with the Forces of Light against the neoliberal globalist NWO Darkness. Yeah, its sounds like fantasy, but these days, who knows?...

    Turkey remaining in HATO as a Trojan horse while becoming a member of the SCO and taking a full part in Eurasian integration (alongside Iran)?  Priceless, and sure to cause more than a few strokes in Mordor on the Potomac.   Twisted Evil
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  GarryB on Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:07 am

    How Ironic... made the same mistake trump made... I said would and meant wouldn't...

    Except in my case the rest of what I wrote made it pretty clear what I meant.

    Trump has limited control and can even change his mind in hours so there is no point in even talking to him... he is irrelevant.

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    eehnie

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  eehnie on Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:55 pm

    BKP wrote:
    eehnie wrote:In the refered to Turkey, Russia has been receiving drone attacks from the area of Idlib, and Turkey does nothing to stop it.

    Like the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, Turkey is in the side of the losers in this war, and neither will have benefits.

    The doubt in the case of US, Israel and Turkey is only about the size of the loses, still to be determined.

    If I remember right, you're a citizen of a country that has historical antipathy toward Turkey. I sympathize with that, but unfortunately Turkey is a country that for several reasons has cards to play in regard to shaping the final outcome of this conflict. So, unfortunately, their interests will have to be accommodated, within reason of course.

    My country, the Basque Country, had not historical relation with Turkey. Historical antipathy is surely much lower than in the countries of the Balkans or in Russia. This is not a factor in my opinion.

    Today, in my country, like in most of Europe, if not all, there is a bad opinion of Turkey because of their crimes against the Kurds and Armenians.

    The defeat of Turkey will have consequences for them, Turkey will not be treated like a winner. The real winners will not give them advantages.
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  GarryB on Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:00 am

    Like it or not, Bulgaria turned down a source of income and assured gas supplies from Russia, which directly led to Russia giving up on the EU in terms of the south stream and to offering Turkey control of gas supplies via the south to the EU. At that time Turkey was shooting down Russian aircraft over Syria... yet they were not as dumb as Bulgaria... they will cooperate on gas supplies to the EU... of course Turkey is not Russia... Russia nor the Soviet Union before it ever blocked gas supplies to the EU, during the entire period of the cold war and beyond that supplies were piped there...

    Ukraine on the other hand stole supplies meant for the EU and therefore interrupted supplies... the interruption was blamed on Russia of course even though the gas is beyond their control once it enters the Ukraine.

    Now Turkey will be in the same position as the Ukraine... I wonder how often faults will occur that stop gas supplies going to Europe?

    Alternative supplies from the US are far too expensive so even if there is a problem Russia will likely still get the sales, but it will be up to the EU to deal with Turkey to sort things out.

    If I was Russia I would sell all my gas to Turkey and let Turkey sell to Europe as they like, then EU rules will not apply... Russian companies could even own the pipelines as the gas will be Turkish... that is not what they intended when they passed that law, but tough.

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    eehnie

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  eehnie on Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:51 pm

    GarryB wrote:Like it or not, Bulgaria turned down a source of income and assured gas supplies from Russia, which directly led to Russia giving up on the EU in terms of the south stream and to offering Turkey control of gas supplies via the south to the EU. At that time Turkey was shooting down Russian aircraft over Syria... yet they were not as dumb as Bulgaria... they will cooperate on gas supplies to the EU... of course Turkey is not Russia... Russia nor the Soviet Union before it ever blocked gas supplies to the EU, during the entire period of the cold war and beyond that supplies were piped there...

    Ukraine on the other hand stole supplies meant for the EU and therefore interrupted supplies... the interruption was blamed on Russia of course even though the gas is beyond their control once it enters the Ukraine.

    Now Turkey will be in the same position as the Ukraine... I wonder how often faults will occur that stop gas supplies going to Europe?

    Alternative supplies from the US are far too expensive so even if there is a problem Russia will likely still get the sales, but it will be up to the EU to deal with Turkey to sort things out.

    If I was Russia I would sell all my gas to Turkey and let Turkey sell to Europe as they like, then EU rules will not apply... Russian companies could even own the pipelines as the gas will be Turkish... that is not what they intended when they passed that law, but tough.


    I said it you some years ago. The main Russian pipelines toward Europe will be the Nord Stream pipelines by the Baltic sea. And the US is criying a lot about it.



    If you look at the map, the minimum distance (straight line) from the Russian Arctic gas fields until France, the Basque Country, Catalonia, Spain, Portugal and Northern Italy goes by Belarus, not even Ukraine, that is the shortest supply way toward the Balkans. The Nord Stream pipeline is perfect also for South Western Europe. Basically, the Russian gas will not give a tour in the range of thousands of Km to reach South Western Europe by Turkey, only because some people with very little knowledge of geography says it. Also to note that to transport the gas by warmer countries requires a bigger effort to keep the gas liquid. And finally to note that Spain and South Italy receive gas today from Algeria and Libia.

    The pipeline to Turkey is for gas for Turkey. Neither Russia and the European Union have interest in to give to Turkey any power in the gas transit. Turkey has not control over Russian gas, and never will be given this position. And turkey is easily avoidable for both, Russia and the European Union. The rest are dreams of low documented "oil and gas strategists".
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    GarryB

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  GarryB on Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:34 am

    Interesting chart if you read it correctly... those blue lines are proposed lines... the only actual pipes are a small pipe going to Turkey and pipes crossing the Ukraine... the three blue pipes going through Belarus, latvia and the baltic don't exist... right now the gas goes through the Ukraine... they are adding only two new lines... one through the baltic that bypasses the baltic states and goes straight from Russia to Germany and one that goes through the Black Sea directly to Turkey... and once those two are up and running it is most likely they will then greatly reduce the flow through the Ukraine or perhaps even stop the flow all together because the Ukrainians are so unreasonable and they have a history of stealing gas meant for other customers...
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    Big_Gazza

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  Big_Gazza on Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:54 am

    GarryB wrote:Interesting chart if you read it correctly... those blue lines are proposed lines... the only actual pipes are a small pipe going to Turkey and pipes crossing the Ukraine... the three blue pipes going through Belarus, latvia and the baltic don't exist... right now the gas goes through the Ukraine... they are adding only two new lines... one through the baltic that bypasses the baltic states and goes straight from Russia to Germany and one that goes through the Black Sea directly to Turkey... and once those two are up and running it is most likely they will then greatly reduce the flow through the Ukraine or perhaps even stop the flow all together because the Ukrainians are so unreasonable and they have a history of stealing gas meant for other customers...

    No, there definitely are gas export pipelines through Belarus....  eg the Yamal and Northern Lights lines



    (old graphic, still refers to South Stream aka "free cash for the Bulgars" line.. hehe)

    How ironic that two of the ukr pipelines are Soyuz (union) and Brotherhood... its kind of a sick joke nowadays... Mad
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    JohninMK

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:56 pm

    eehnie wrote:
    If you look at the map, the minimum distance (straight line) from the Russian Arctic gas fields until France, the Basque Country, Catalonia, Spain, Portugal and Northern Italy goes by Belarus, not even Ukraine, that is the shortest supply way toward the Balkans. The Nord Stream pipeline is perfect also for South Western Europe. Basically, the Russian gas will not give a tour in the range of thousands of Km to reach South Western Europe by Turkey, only because some people with very little knowledge of geography says it. Also to note that to transport the gas by warmer countries requires a bigger effort to keep the gas liquid. And finally to note that Spain and South Italy receive gas today from Algeria and Libia.

    The pipeline to Turkey is for gas for Turkey. Neither Russia and the European Union have interest in to give to Turkey any power in the gas transit. Turkey has not control over Russian gas, and never will be given this position. And turkey is easily avoidable for both, Russia and the European Union. The rest are dreams of low documented "oil and gas strategists".

    Come on, you can do better than that. The map you quote from is 15 years old and a lot has changed since then. In particular Turkstream is nearing completion.

    In my view the problem is not getting gas into the EU, it is what happens to it then. There is just not enough west/east or especially north/south pipeline capacity installed to allow much change in gas routes over now. It is very expensive to route new pipelines within the EU compared to under the Baltic or Black Seas.

    But this is really going off thread now.

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    eehnie

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

    Post  eehnie on Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:55 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    eehnie wrote:I said it you some years ago. The main Russian pipelines toward Europe will be the Nord Stream pipelines by the Baltic sea. And the US is criying a lot about it.



    If you look at the map, the minimum distance (straight line) from the Russian Arctic gas fields until France, the Basque Country, Catalonia, Spain, Portugal and Northern Italy goes by Belarus, not even Ukraine, that is the shortest supply way toward the Balkans. The Nord Stream pipeline is perfect also for South Western Europe. Basically, the Russian gas will not give a tour in the range of thousands of Km to reach South Western Europe by Turkey, only because some people with very little knowledge of geography says it. Also to note that to transport the gas by warmer countries requires a bigger effort to keep the gas liquid. And finally to note that Spain and South Italy receive gas today from Algeria and Libia.

    The pipeline to Turkey is for gas for Turkey. Neither Russia and the European Union have interest in to give to Turkey any power in the gas transit. Turkey has not control over Russian gas, and never will be given this position. And turkey is easily avoidable for both, Russia and the European Union. The rest are dreams of low documented "oil and gas strategists".

    Come on, you can do better than that. The map you quote from is 15 years old and a lot has changed since then. In particular Turkstream is nearing completion.

    In my view the problem is not getting gas into the EU, it is what happens to it then. There is just not enough west/east or especially north/south pipeline capacity installed to allow much change in gas routes over now. It is very expensive to route new pipelines within the EU compared to under the Baltic or Black Seas.

    But this is really going off thread now.


    What is your problem with the map. It is a map that includes South-Western Europe, which was necessary for the comment, and show many connections habitually ignored. Also you can see which of the project of the time have been done and which no.

    I can do better yes, but you will need to do better. The current OPAL and Gazela pipelines connect the Nord Stream pipeline with Austria and Italy and are enough to absorb the total demand of Russian gas of both countries. In fact, Nord Stream + Nord Stream 2 are enough to absorb totally the exports of Russian gas to the West of Germany, Austria and Italy (including the 3 countries). Look again at the map I posted before.

    The alone pending solution would be in the Balkans. With 3 supply options in competence, the power of Poland, Ukraine and Turkey over the Russian gas will be very low:

    - The transit of Russian gas by Turkey toward the Balkans can be totally bypassed, like proves the current situation.
    - The transit of Russian gas by Ukraine toward the Balkans can be totally bypassed, even without the need of the new Turkish line.
    - The transit of gas by Poland to the rest of the EU (basically Germany), can be reduced to 0, if the countries involved allow not transit of the Russian gas of the Yamal line toward the Balkans. It means the Yamal line would be reduced to the supply of Belarus, Kaliningrad, Lithuania, Poland, and maybe the Czech Republic if this transit is not allowed. And for it the collaboration of Poland is not required. Even, now Poland is forced to beg to other countries to take measures to allow the transit of gas from the Yamal pipeline to the Balkans.

    To note that the capacity of the Yamal pipeline allows to bypass the Ukranian and Turkish pipelines. The capacity of the Ukranian pipelines allows to bypass the Yamal and the Turkish pipelines. But the Turkish pipeline, with far lower capacity, is not enough to supply the entire region and needs to be combined with another option, allowing to bypass only one of the other two.

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