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    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:27 pm

    That may be the solution for long term for Syria and I do hope that Russia follows this policy. Create a safehaeven known as western Syria, build a wall or outposts everywhere and limit travel between the two, and start building a real economy in western Syria along with a newly formed and trained army. Doing so will give a lot of time for Assad and the military reformation and modernization, while allowing Turkey and US to be stuck fighting a never ending battle and then let western Syria advance its borders east when they are more prepared.
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    KoTeMoRe

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Thu Aug 25, 2016 4:56 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:...............

    I am not saying Kurds, but Turks, US and their terrorist buddies Al-Sham and FSA will start moving west.

    ....................

    Seph, Turks did not do anything here on their own. They were allowed to do it by Russia. And Turks know it. They will be busy with Kurds up there for a long time.

    Anyone goes west he is fried. Al-Sham and FSA can and do try it all the time. So far no joy. And there will be none. That is Russian real estate now.

    Just wait and see. Notice how US took Ukraine easily? And that is native Russian lands. Russian pilot dies, Russian authorities state they will never forget or forgive Turkey over this, and then they did. After a simple apology.  At that point, the Russian people should have had mass demonstrations against Putin for being such a fucking bitch, but nope.  No, Turkey didn't get Russian approval. They don't need to. Russia rolls over. Medvedev was more of a man than Putin was. He at least fought US mercs and Georgians.

    Notice how the US took Ukraine easily?
    Er... No? Russia for all intents and purposes has come out on top, NATO has a banana republic to manipulate, Russia has the Donbass, which keeps the junta's hands tied. Russia also has Crimea, with complete authority over it as a federal subject. Navy, air, land now form a bastion in the Black Sea that Russia could not utilize to its fullest extent when it was under Ukraine, not to mention production structure.

    Putin for being such a fucking bitch Which is why the US is absolutely pissing themselves? Russia has outmaneuvered them in every situation AND avoided the war that they so desperately crave. Lets see: Europe's fucked economically, and it's suicidal to boot, I give it a maximum of ten years before it descends into anarchy/civil war/fractures, so goodbye NATO, for what that pathetic alliance is worth. The US has nothing but a giant military attempting to prop up it's failing petro-dollar, and is acting more and more irrational as time goes on. They're 80's USSR on fricken steroids right now, except not willing to back out, and with a massive Achilles heel. They are also running out of options with their bloated military, as most potential consumable target nations have buffed their militaries considerably since Desert Storm, and attacking them will only unveil just how much of a paper tiger the US is (heavy losses, both equipment and actual casualties, as well as pin-popping their prima-dona: "Air Superiority"). Russia is rapidly outpacing them in the technological department, while not over spending on procurement, simply because the US MIC is corrupt beyond repair.

    Motherland doesn't even have to do anything at this point. Time is well and truly on our side, literally grab popcorn and watch as the US plays its last few cards ineffectively, namely being hybrid warfare and sanctions, and then implodes melodramatically.

    Russia fucked up because they didn't deal with Turkey after Su-24 being shot down. They talked tough but were far too quick to forgive. No money, no arrest and such for the people responsible. Nothing. But they forgave them after two of their own were murdered.

    Except Turkey lost how many personnel to magical unicorn MANPADS and ATGMs? I know, I know, we can only speculate they were from Russia, but that's the whole idea. Add some sanctions to the mix, and suddenly Duh-dogan realizes how insecure his little Ottoman Empire is.

    Medvedev was more of a man than Putin was. He at least fought US mercs and Georgians.

    While simultaneously favoring economic and military deals with Western nations, deals that had repercussions right up to this day.  Rolling Eyes

    Look, I want more than anyone else for Russia to flex a bit of muscle and give the US a smack in the face it won't soon forget, and I know that time will come, but for now it's a matter of playing the waiting game. There is no point in acting hurriedly or irrationally if time is on your side, just let the US stew and stew, and when the time is right you'll have some nice tasty American soup.

    You make a good argument but at the time Medvedev made economic deals, it was being pushed by everyone else anyway so he just takes the blame.  But at least he showed enough strength for NATO to start second guessing themselves.

    On the rest, you make a fair point.  But a lot of it is "time will tell" and I just have the fear that Turkey and US will use this as pretext to invade fully and take Assad out.

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Maybe US and Turkey though are using this as a pretext to target Assad.  Saudi Arabia has jets in Turkey ready to be used as well (F-15's).  So I imagine that they will be targeting Assad.  Now if that happens, what will Russia do?  They got S-400's and bunch of advanced jets, yet they will not use them it seems.

    If they wont defend SAA, then at least they should be supplying more advanced weapons to SAA to help fight off the invaders.  IEL MiG-29's, Su-27's and more air defense systems.  Maybe even help build up mini IADS around pockets to protect SyAF and installations.  They must be ready at all costs.

    It is the possibilities here and the other groups are very sure in getting rid of Assad.  When that happens, it will be an Anti-Russian country and Russia will lose more bases and influence.

    Y Yeah let's give more weapons to a military group that needs a total overhaul on its core. Let's not actually try and deal this differently than the SAA tried before.

    I understand the SAA is generally incompetent but they still have an air force that could use some newer aircraft to help secure their borders a bit better and give them a possible edge over potential enemy (Turkey and US). The IADS is wishful thinking but still an idea.  The US cannot be trusted, not even 1% of trust. So it is ideal to prepare for the worst.  Those MiG-23's and older MiG-29's are just not going to cut it.  Give an inch, the US and Turks will take a mile.

    The problem once again, is not weapons it's people. There's enough idiots to enlist for the Beardies to keep this war going for another decade. In the other side there isn't enough Syrians that want to get killed for a Syria that is mere dust today.

    Resistance

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  Resistance on Thu Aug 25, 2016 5:53 pm

    Russia agrees weekend ceasefire weekly. The point is moot. Jaysh Fateh will never agree to any ceasefire. Jaysh Fateh wants Putin's head on a plate.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/4zj0nv/russia_agrees_to_48hour_aleppo_truce_un_waiting/
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    JohninMK

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  JohninMK on Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:31 pm

    Meeting not confirmed by MoD

    ANKARA, August 25. /TASS/. Russian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov will on Friday meet in Ankara with his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar, the Anadolu news agency reported Thursday.

    "According to available data, General Gerasimov will tomorrow (August 26) visit, jointly with the delegation, the Turkish Armed Forces General Staff at 11:00 and hold talks with General Akar," the statement said.

    The agency does not cite any other details. TASS does not have an official confirmation of the report on the part of Russia’s Defense Ministry.


    More: http://tass.com/world/895977

    Resistance

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  Resistance on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:31 pm

    Russia is as evil as the west in Syria. Without Russian intervention, Syria would have been taken over last year. Now the war will go on for centuries. Every day hundreds are killed by war. Russia does just enough to prolong the war. Russia does not end the war by supplying counter battery radars to SAA which would allow SAA to wipe out terrorists artillery. Without their artillery, terrorists are nobody. War is profit for Russia. War is leverage for Russia. This is why Russia need the war in Syria. Today this is Syria's tragedy. Tomorrow this will be Russia's tragedy. Payback is a biotch.
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    OminousSpudd

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  OminousSpudd on Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:34 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch
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    KoTeMoRe

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Fri Aug 26, 2016 1:24 am

    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.

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    OminousSpudd

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  OminousSpudd on Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:15 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.


    Ah, I gotcha now. Embarassed

    Vann7

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  Vann7 on Fri Aug 26, 2016 4:32 am



    Withing a month or two.. people will know for sure , What role Turkey will play in
    Northen Syria.. if it will be only to block Kurds advance? or will they use their army
    to escort weapons supplies to Alqaeda and ISIS in IDLIB? Interesting questions..

    Russia will have the test of its lifetime.. but in any case..delaying the conflict
    will truly help Russia to make it more difficult for NATO to start a full scale war ,
    and even give time to Trump to get in Power. And or More time for China to finally
    stop being CHicken and join Russia in Syria. Or to see if Kurds will finally drop their
    dream of Kurdistan and join Syria? or if Erdogan do the unthinkable and make peace with
    Syria? we will know in just a few weeks ,or just days , what really will happen in northen Syria.
    Dont think Turkey will adventure to do a direct attack on Syrian army in aleppo. on their position but they might move to IDLIB to block Russia from bombing it.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  kvs on Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:00 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.


    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A3%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BC_%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8E_%D0%BD%D0%B5_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%8F%D1%82%D1%8C
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:12 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.


    But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it? I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves. These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia. Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)? Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether. And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing. No accomplishment or anything.

    I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was. What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists. They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too. So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.

    Resistance

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  Resistance on Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:55 am

    I think the west and Turkey will try to test Russia. Turkey shot down Su-24, pilot killed, Russia did nothing to retaliate, and forgave Turkey after a mere apology. I think they'll bomb the Latakia base and kill every Russian serviceman there, and, if the trend continues, Russia will do nothing about it, and forgive them after a mere apology. They must think Russians are idiots after what they did to Russians since the mid 1980s, having played Russians dozens of times.
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    eehnie

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  eehnie on Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:33 am

    Very enlightening article:

    http://www.activistpost.com/2016/08/turkey-invades-syria-backed-by-u-s.html

    According to the article, the Turkish invasion has been accompanied by US air strikes:

    On Wednesday morning, Turkey abruptly launched an all-out military assault on Syria, sending in tanks, troops, and engaging in airstrikes, in concert with airstrikes from the United States, to the northern portions of Syria near the Turkey-Syria border under the guise of combating ISIS forces. At this time, the military operations seem focused around Jarablus.

    According to the BBC, “A dozen Turkish tanks and other vehicles have rolled across the Syrian border after heavy shelling of an area held by so-called Islamic State (IS). Military sources told Turkish media 70 targets in the Jarablus area had been destroyed by artillery and rocket strikes, and 12 by air strikes.”

    For those who may be wondering exactly what the Turkish goal might be, two points must be mentioned in regards to Turkey’s actions which should go some length to demonstrate that the Turks are still focused on destroying the Syrian government as well as preventing the establishment of a Kurdish enclave either in Syria orTurkey.

    First, the Turkish military is acting as the frontal assault for “moderate” rebel forces like the FSA who are marching in directly behind the Turkish military to hold territory conquered by the Turks. Any association with the Free Syrian Army, a gaggle of Western-backed extremistsindistinguishable from ISIS, should be a major warning sign to any informed observer that the goal is not to aid in the destruction of terrorist forces in Syria or to assist the Syrian government in its goal to do so. Second, the Turkish invasion was accompanied by American airstrikes which clearly indicates that the Turks are operating closely with the United States, which has been chomping at the bit to either directly destroy the Syrian government via military invasion or to create “buffer zones” and “safe zones” in the country to act as forward operating bases for future terrorist proxy operations.

    In the other side the Syrian government condemned the invasion:

    For its part, the Syrian government has condemned the Turkish invasion. As ABC News reports,

    Syria’s government has denounced Turkish military incursion, describing it as Turkey’s “blatant violation” of Syrian sovereignty.

    In a statement reported by state-run news agency SANA on Wednesday, the government says that “any move to combat terrorism on Syrian territories should have been coordinated with the Syrian government and army.”

    The statement also calls for an immediate end to the Turkish “aggression,” which it says is being carried out under the pretext of fighting terrorism.

    It says: “Fighting terrorism cannot be undertaken by ousting Daesh and replacing it with other terrorist organizations directly backed by Turkey.” Daesh is the Arabic language acronym for IS.

    And also the Kurds condemned the invasion:

    The YPG has likewise condemned the Turkish involvement in Syria, labeling it a “blatant aggression in Syrian internal affairs.”

    And finally the article points:

    Turkey’s move raises even more questions now regarding the nature of its recent “failed” coup as well as its relationship with Russia and the United States. A troubling new dimension has also been added to the Syrian crisis as the Turks have now officially invaded a sovereign country in an already volatile region. Undoubtedly, we will be watching these events closely.

    It is very clear who is who in this war. Very clear. No doubt about in which side are the Kurds.
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    KoTeMoRe

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:48 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.


    But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it?  I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves.  These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia.  Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)?  Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether.  And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing.  No accomplishment or anything.

    I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was.  What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists.  They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too.  So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.


    If these terrorists were to flood Aleppo and Latakia, they would have done it by now. And they tried. For about 4 years they tried. Let me explain you something, attacking Russian bases needs such a capability from these guys that it is simply not possible or feasible as it is now. Supported by Turkish airforce to attack where? There's a NFZ and I have yet to see Turkish jets crossing the border, given there was no fight for Jarabulus.

    They are also using direct cover for one of their parties against ANOTHER one of their parties. It's very simple, this trend will have two consequences. Kurds going rogue the moment the Turks push too hard and the US having to sort them out...do you see where in this a couple of crates are going to be missing from SAA/Russian inventory...

    Resistance

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  Resistance on Fri Aug 26, 2016 4:10 pm

    Turkey once again tricked Russia.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/4zoqiq/turkey_has_gone_further_than_promised_in_syria/
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:15 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.


    But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it?  I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves.  These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia.  Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)?  Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether.  And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing.  No accomplishment or anything.

    I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was.  What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists.  They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too.  So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.


    If these terrorists were to flood Aleppo and Latakia, they would have done it by now. And they tried. For about 4 years they tried. Let me explain you something, attacking Russian bases needs such a capability from these guys that it is simply not possible or feasible as it is now. Supported by Turkish airforce to attack where? There's a NFZ and I have yet to see Turkish jets crossing the border, given there was no fight for Jarabulus.

    They are also using direct cover for one of their parties against ANOTHER one of their parties. It's very simple, this trend will have two consequences. Kurds going rogue the moment the Turks push too hard and the US having to sort them out...do you see where in this a couple of crates are going to be missing from SAA/Russian inventory...

    You are running on the pretext that the Kurds are going to fight them. They will not be. They were condemned by their own people and following what US is telling them, to leave. There are a few pockets fighting Turkey, but that is it. Once they are dealt with, Turkey will expand further and then set sights on Assad. They may not attack Russian soldiers and equipment, but will prevent them from providing any aid by supporting a no fly zone and thus forcing Russia to stick to the ground and not do anything while Assad falls.
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    AlfaT8

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  AlfaT8 on Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:42 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.


    But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it?  I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves.  These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia.  Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)?  Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether.  And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing.  No accomplishment or anything.

    I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was.  What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists.  They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too.  So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.


    If these terrorists were to flood Aleppo and Latakia, they would have done it by now. And they tried. For about 4 years they tried. Let me explain you something, attacking Russian bases needs such a capability from these guys that it is simply not possible or feasible as it is now. Supported by Turkish airforce to attack where? There's a NFZ and I have yet to see Turkish jets crossing the border, given there was no fight for Jarabulus.

    They are also using direct cover for one of their parties against ANOTHER one of their parties. It's very simple, this trend will have two consequences. Kurds going rogue the moment the Turks push too hard and the US having to sort them out...do you see where in this a couple of crates are going to be missing from SAA/Russian inventory...

    You are running on the pretext that the Kurds are going to fight them.  They will not be.  They were condemned by their own people and following what US is telling them, to leave.   There are a few pockets fighting Turkey, but that is it. Once they are dealt with, Turkey will expand further and then set sights on Assad.  They may not attack Russian soldiers and equipment, but will prevent them from providing any aid by supporting a no fly zone and thus forcing Russia to stick to the ground and not do anything while Assad falls.

    WTF, Seph are you drinking something or has your account been jacked, there's no F'ing way the Kurds would run away like that regardless of what there spineless higher-ups or uncle sam says.
    The Turks are trying to prevent the Kurds in the west and east form liking up there's no way in hell they would go for Assad unless they're suicidal.
    "No fly-zone" against Russia, i would like to see them try. Laughing

    par far

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  par far on Fri Aug 26, 2016 5:43 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.


    But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it?  I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves.  These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia.  Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)?  Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether.  And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing.  No accomplishment or anything.

    I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was.  What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists.  They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too.  So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.


    If these terrorists were to flood Aleppo and Latakia, they would have done it by now. And they tried. For about 4 years they tried. Let me explain you something, attacking Russian bases needs such a capability from these guys that it is simply not possible or feasible as it is now. Supported by Turkish airforce to attack where? There's a NFZ and I have yet to see Turkish jets crossing the border, given there was no fight for Jarabulus.

    They are also using direct cover for one of their parties against ANOTHER one of their parties. It's very simple, this trend will have two consequences. Kurds going rogue the moment the Turks push too hard and the US having to sort them out...do you see where in this a couple of crates are going to be missing from SAA/Russian inventory...

    You are running on the pretext that the Kurds are going to fight them.  They will not be.  They were condemned by their own people and following what US is telling them, to leave.   There are a few pockets fighting Turkey, but that is it. Once they are dealt with, Turkey will expand further and then set sights on Assad.  They may not attack Russian soldiers and equipment, but will prevent them from providing any aid by supporting a no fly zone and thus forcing Russia to stick to the ground and not do anything while Assad falls.

    I think Turkey knows that Russia won't let this happen but the Turks going further in(we don't know this for sure) is concerning but the Kurds fucked up here, wonder what Russia will do here, make it a bloody graveyard for Turks?
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  PapaDragon on Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:02 pm


    Simple. Turks will park their asses between two Kurdish zones and start going wide instead of pushing too much south.

    Those who think that ''FSA will flood Aleppo and Latakia'' forget that nothing stopped them from doing so already. Border was wide open for years. Problem is that they get slaughtered when they pushed too close.

    Turks will not touch Russian assets or their proxies ever again. Su-24 disaster aftermath showed as much. Now they know from Turkmen experience what will be the consequences. Only this time there are real Turks on the ground to fry.

    If someone has issues with Turkish presence in Syria he can complain to Kurds.

    As for Russia complaining about ''Turkey going too far'' it's called diplomatic maneuvering. They will most certainly not say ''we are totally OK with this and it was partially our idea''.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:06 pm

    AlfaT8 wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.


    But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it?  I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves.  These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia.  Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)?  Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether.  And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing.  No accomplishment or anything.

    I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was.  What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists.  They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too.  So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.


    If these terrorists were to flood Aleppo and Latakia, they would have done it by now. And they tried. For about 4 years they tried. Let me explain you something, attacking Russian bases needs such a capability from these guys that it is simply not possible or feasible as it is now. Supported by Turkish airforce to attack where? There's a NFZ and I have yet to see Turkish jets crossing the border, given there was no fight for Jarabulus.

    They are also using direct cover for one of their parties against ANOTHER one of their parties. It's very simple, this trend will have two consequences. Kurds going rogue the moment the Turks push too hard and the US having to sort them out...do you see where in this a couple of crates are going to be missing from SAA/Russian inventory...

    You are running on the pretext that the Kurds are going to fight them.  They will not be.  They were condemned by their own people and following what US is telling them, to leave.   There are a few pockets fighting Turkey, but that is it. Once they are dealt with, Turkey will expand further and then set sights on Assad.  They may not attack Russian soldiers and equipment, but will prevent them from providing any aid by supporting a no fly zone and thus forcing Russia to stick to the ground and not do anything while Assad falls.

    WTF, Seph are you drinking something or has your account been jacked, there's no F'ing way the Kurds would run away like that regardless of what there spineless higher-ups or uncle sam says.
    The Turks are trying to prevent the Kurds in the west and east form liking up there's no way in hell they would go for Assad unless they're suicidal.
    "No fly-zone" against Russia, i would like to see them try. Laughing

    But it isn't about what you guys think you know, but about the possibilities.  What if Turkey does attempt this?  What will Russia do? You think Russia will step in? Because they didn't when Russian pilot died (A Russian died).  I am starting to lose trust in Putin and well, reasons are this situation now and this article: http://russia-insider.com/en/must-watch-russian-analyst-mikhail-khazin-explains-how-putin-has-broken-away-international-elite-and  Russia has too many people within the government that have openly talked against Putin and still managed to keep their jobs. If he was really good at what he does, he would have dealt with these internal issues. He would have retaliated against Turkey and not forgiven them so quickly, and they wouldn't have allowed Turkey to venture into Syria. These Kurds issue could have been resolved by Syria and Russia without needing someone else to openly invade territory and flood it with terrorists.

    Read this: http://theduran.com/turkeys-illegal-invasion-syria-proves-erdogan-no-friend-russia/

    par far

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  par far on Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:12 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Simple. Turks will park their asses between two Kurdish zones and start going wide instead of pushing too much south.

    Those who think that ''FSA will flood Aleppo and Latakia'' forget that nothing stopped them from doing so already. Border was wide open for years. Problem is that they get slaughtered when they pushed too close.

    Turks will not touch Russian assets or their proxies ever again. Su-24 disaster aftermath showed as much. Now they know from Turkmen experience what will be the consequences. Only this time there are real Turks on the ground to fry.

    If someone has issues with Turkish presence in Syria he can complain to Kurds.  

    As for Russia complaining about ''Turkey going too far'' it's called diplomatic maneuvering. They will most certainly not say ''we are totally OK with this and it was partially our idea''.


    And what do you think they will use that space(Northern Syria for), I will tell you, to cause problems for Russia, I say, start arming the Kurds with heavy weapons and let them go at Turkey but this won't likely happen(which is just fucking stupid), if the Kurds are armed with heavy weapons and going after Turkey, than Russia, will have more chips to play with. They are trying to set up another Israel in Northern Syria, don't let that happen, at any cost. Arms the fucking the Kurds and tell them to go fight against, Turkey and you will have a your own region in Syria(with friendly terms with the Assad government), you just have to tell the Kurds to fight and when they are done fighting, you can tell them to fuck off(they won't be able to do anything because most of them, will be killed off anyways.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  sepheronx on Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:20 pm

    par far wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Simple. Turks will park their asses between two Kurdish zones and start going wide instead of pushing too much south.

    Those who think that ''FSA will flood Aleppo and Latakia'' forget that nothing stopped them from doing so already. Border was wide open for years. Problem is that they get slaughtered when they pushed too close.

    Turks will not touch Russian assets or their proxies ever again. Su-24 disaster aftermath showed as much. Now they know from Turkmen experience what will be the consequences. Only this time there are real Turks on the ground to fry.

    If someone has issues with Turkish presence in Syria he can complain to Kurds.  

    As for Russia complaining about ''Turkey going too far'' it's called diplomatic maneuvering. They will most certainly not say ''we are totally OK with this and it was partially our idea''.


    And what do you think they will use that space(Northern Syria for), I will tell you, to cause problems for Russia, I say, start arming the Kurds with heavy weapons and let them go at Turkey but this won't likely happen(which is just fucking stupid), if the Kurds are armed with heavy weapons and going after Turkey, than Russia, will have more chips to play with. They are trying to set up another Israel in Northern Syria, don't let that happen, at any cost. Arms the fucking the Kurds and tell them to go fight against, Turkey and you will have a your own region in Syria(with friendly terms with the Assad government), you just have to tell the Kurds to fight and when they are done fighting, you can tell them to fuck off(they won't be able to do anything because most of them, will be killed off anyways.

    But you guys keep ignoring my statement. The Kurds will NOT be fighting Turks or US. US is backing Turks, and US controls the Kurds. Their leader already agreed to withdraw.

    par far

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  par far on Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:29 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    par far wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Simple. Turks will park their asses between two Kurdish zones and start going wide instead of pushing too much south.

    Those who think that ''FSA will flood Aleppo and Latakia'' forget that nothing stopped them from doing so already. Border was wide open for years. Problem is that they get slaughtered when they pushed too close.

    Turks will not touch Russian assets or their proxies ever again. Su-24 disaster aftermath showed as much. Now they know from Turkmen experience what will be the consequences. Only this time there are real Turks on the ground to fry.

    If someone has issues with Turkish presence in Syria he can complain to Kurds.  

    As for Russia complaining about ''Turkey going too far'' it's called diplomatic maneuvering. They will most certainly not say ''we are totally OK with this and it was partially our idea''.


    And what do you think they will use that space(Northern Syria for), I will tell you, to cause problems for Russia, I say, start arming the Kurds with heavy weapons and let them go at Turkey but this won't likely happen(which is just fucking stupid), if the Kurds are armed with heavy weapons and going after Turkey, than Russia, will have more chips to play with. They are trying to set up another Israel in Northern Syria, don't let that happen, at any cost. Arms the fucking the Kurds and tell them to go fight against, Turkey and you will have a your own region in Syria(with friendly terms with the Assad government), you just have to tell the Kurds to fight and when they are done fighting, you can tell them to fuck off(they won't be able to do anything because most of them, will be killed off anyways.

    But you guys keep ignoring my statement.  The Kurds will NOT be fighting Turks or US.  US is backing Turks, and US controls the Kurds.  Their leader already agreed to withdraw.


    There are several tribes of Kurds(there are several tribes of Sunnis, some Sunnis are fighting with/for Assad and some against him), they can be divided, if Russia/Assad promise the Kurds, their own own space, they will fight the Turks(they won't fight the US but they will fight the Turks), this shit get complicated by the day, just when I think, I have this figured out, something happens, that just completely destroys what I have just figured out.

    par far

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  par far on Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:54 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    AlfaT8 wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    OminousSpudd wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Russia is the new Schrodinger's cat. Total Success!
    KoTeMoRe you bastard, you kept me lying awake in bed for a good half-hour trying to relate Shrodinger's cat to Russia. I'm still not 100% clear on what you mean. scratch

    It's easy really; In this forum there's so much schizophrenia about Russia, that it is like Schrodinger's cat. Weak and powerful. Stupid and cunning. Defeated yet winning. one thing and its opposite in the same time.  
    Basically this conflict has to be seen in the trends that are impacted.

    The Trend is this. By May 2015, the US administration was saying that there was no more future for Assad and militarily is was bleak. Here we are 15 months later and Assad is having a laugh at the US, Turkey AND the Kurds. Meanwhile the US has gone from train and equip folks to send its factions to fight each other. This would be another Afghanistan...we're like decades away from Afghanistan. Decades.


    But are you not concerned that this will drag Russia down with it?  I mean, Turkey and US are flooding terrorists into Syria, especially after this move, and then if one thinks they stop in the north, they are only fooling themselves.  These terrorists will end up in Aleppo and Latakia.  Then what will happen if they attack Russian base outright? Will Russia bomb them? What if they are being supported by US and Turkey airforce in the attack (meaning that they are not bombing Russians but supplying protection to the terrorists attacking the Russians)?  Essentially, what my concern is, US and Turkey will use this as a pretext to get rid of Assad, and then Russia is forced out of Syria altogether.  And what will be end result? Wasted money and death of 21+ service men of Russia for nothing.  No accomplishment or anything.

    I think you guys are not seeing what this move for what it really was.  What makes this different than before, is that Turkey and US are now providing actual military support to the terrorists.  They even threatened to shoot down Russian and Syrian planes too.  So if they are willing to go that far, then they are willing to go far enough to strike Russians indirectly in Syria.


    If these terrorists were to flood Aleppo and Latakia, they would have done it by now. And they tried. For about 4 years they tried. Let me explain you something, attacking Russian bases needs such a capability from these guys that it is simply not possible or feasible as it is now. Supported by Turkish airforce to attack where? There's a NFZ and I have yet to see Turkish jets crossing the border, given there was no fight for Jarabulus.

    They are also using direct cover for one of their parties against ANOTHER one of their parties. It's very simple, this trend will have two consequences. Kurds going rogue the moment the Turks push too hard and the US having to sort them out...do you see where in this a couple of crates are going to be missing from SAA/Russian inventory...

    You are running on the pretext that the Kurds are going to fight them.  They will not be.  They were condemned by their own people and following what US is telling them, to leave.   There are a few pockets fighting Turkey, but that is it. Once they are dealt with, Turkey will expand further and then set sights on Assad.  They may not attack Russian soldiers and equipment, but will prevent them from providing any aid by supporting a no fly zone and thus forcing Russia to stick to the ground and not do anything while Assad falls.

    WTF, Seph are you drinking something or has your account been jacked, there's no F'ing way the Kurds would run away like that regardless of what there spineless higher-ups or uncle sam says.
    The Turks are trying to prevent the Kurds in the west and east form liking up there's no way in hell they would go for Assad unless they're suicidal.
    "No fly-zone" against Russia, i would like to see them try. Laughing

    But it isn't about what you guys think you know, but about the possibilities.  What if Turkey does attempt this?  What will Russia do? You think Russia will step in? Because they didn't when Russian pilot died (A Russian died).  I am starting to lose trust in Putin and well, reasons are this situation now and this article: http://russia-insider.com/en/must-watch-russian-analyst-mikhail-khazin-explains-how-putin-has-broken-away-international-elite-and  Russia has too many people within the government that have openly talked against Putin and still managed to keep their jobs.  If he was really good at what he does, he would have dealt with these internal issues.  He would have retaliated against Turkey and not forgiven them so quickly, and they wouldn't have allowed Turkey to venture into Syria.  These Kurds issue could have been resolved by Syria and Russia without needing someone else to openly invade territory and flood it with terrorists.

    Read this: http://theduran.com/turkeys-illegal-invasion-syria-proves-erdogan-no-friend-russia/


    I have read both of your articles and both of them are very good articles, the first one, really opened my eyes as to what was going on with the western elites, the elites in west have abused their power for far too long and created too many wars, so the world does needs to be reshaped and Putin is trying to do that, the war on terror, the Arab springs, the terrorist attacks and shooting down of civilian planes, the western elites went too far and broke their own rules, so I admire Putin for, reshaping the world.

    Onto Turkey, Erdogan was never a friend of Russia(he is a slave of the west and he needs to remain one because if he is not, than he will be killed and Russia knows this), the Russian pilot being killed is very said(RIP to the young pilot), Russia responded by economic(this was the right move because they want war and Russia does not) and Turkey felt, them and that is why, Turkey came back to be "friends"(again they are not and Russia knows this) and this is good for Russia because, you keep your friends close but your enemies closer, Turkey is in Syria, which is good for Russia because now Russia can make Syria a graveyard for Turkey and hopefully get Erdogan killed(on Russian terms and not on west's terms). This is what I think can happen but we never know with this situation but one thing I do know, is who ever, wins in Syria is going to make the rules, so the stakes are high.

    Resistance

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

    Post  Resistance on Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:03 pm

    Russia is nothing but a stooge of Israel. You think a few thousand terrorists is a match for the Russian army? If Russia wanted to, the war in Syria can be ended in weeks by supplying counter battery radars to SAA. Israel wants the war in Syria to prolong to kill Syrians. Russia does exactly that. Prolong the war in Syria to kill Syrians. Russians are just as evil as Israelis. On top of that, Russians are slaves of Israel.

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #10

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