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    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:11 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:I concluded I understand Erdogan less and less.

    He's literally surrounded by enemies from all sides - Greece, Russia, Armenia, Syria, Iraq and Kurds inside and outside of Turkey, Ataturkists. He has moderately good (but not cordial) relations with Israel and Georgia

    Does he really think he can become an omnipotent Sultan? In a week the Syrian Express may start delivering stuff to Rojava, if Mr. Putin decides to.

    The funniest thing is that Mr. Erdogan made most of these enemies himself

    Just a week or so ago I was thinking about how Erdogan has suceeded in alienating virtually all his neighbors other than Russia. Well, there goes that.

    NATO allies too, remember it was USA who vouched for Turkey and Russia operated accordingly.

    With this latest BS Turks not only pissed in the face of Russia, they pissed in the face of all NATO countries.

    ultron

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  ultron on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:12 pm

    Bolt wrote:
    Militarov wrote:
    Godric wrote:not official news but their is talk of Turkey closing off the Bosphorus


    I am sure they are legally bound to keep the straits open via a treaty they signed in the 1920s

    They cant close it its aganist international law and threatys that were signed though history, unless they feel like declaring war on Russia then sure.
    Last few years should have taught people that the international law doesn't mean shit. Might is right.
    Let's say Turkey closes the straits. Then what Russia is going to do? Write an angry letter? They will summon the UN meeting, where Turkey will say they won't allow more arms to Syria that are being used to kill civilians. I know that this is bollocks, but they will say it. Then what? Attack Turkey? How, with what?
    OK, they will begin bombing the defense installations near the straits. Turkey asks for help from NATO, then what Russia is going to do?

    Then it's WW3.
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    Siempre_Leal

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Siempre_Leal on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:17 pm

    ult wrote:


    A BIG F*** Y** to Erdogan

    Karl Haushofer

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Karl Haushofer on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:20 pm

    Bolt wrote:
    Militarov wrote:
    Godric wrote:not official news but their is talk of Turkey closing off the Bosphorus


    I am sure they are legally bound to keep the straits open via a treaty they signed in the 1920s

    They cant close it its aganist international law and threatys that were signed though history, unless they feel like declaring war on Russia then sure.
    Last few years should have taught people that the international law doesn't mean shit. Might is right.
    Let's say Turkey closes the straits. Then what Russia is going to do? Write an angry letter? They will summon the UN meeting, where Turkey will say they won't allow more arms to Syria that are being used to kill civilians. I know that this is bollocks, but they will say it. Then what? Attack Turkey? How, with what?
    OK, they will begin bombing the defense installations near the straits. Turkey asks for help from NATO, then what Russia is going to do?

    Then Russia should basically use whatever force needed to "open" the strait again.
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Militarov on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:21 pm

    Bolt wrote:
    Militarov wrote:
    Godric wrote:not official news but their is talk of Turkey closing off the Bosphorus


    I am sure they are legally bound to keep the straits open via a treaty they signed in the 1920s

    They cant close it its aganist international law and threatys that were signed though history, unless they feel like declaring war on Russia then sure.
    Last few years should have taught people that the international law doesn't mean shit. Might is right.
    Let's say Turkey closes the straits. Then what Russia is going to do? Write an angry letter? They will summon the UN meeting, where Turkey will say they won't allow more arms to Syria that are being used to kill civilians. I know that this is bollocks, but they will say it. Then what? Attack Turkey? How, with what?
    OK, they will begin bombing the defense installations near the straits. Turkey asks for help from NATO, then what Russia is going to do?

    Laws in general do not mean alot if you are in position to ignore or create them to suit your own interest, however i just stated the fact, it would be aganist international law, if Turkey does that i dont think even US will openly support them coz they already themself broke too many international laws, i dont see them doing it again unless they want to totally destroy their own legitimacy..not like much of it is left.

    Turkey does not really have enough capable navy to close anything than a major sized river to be honest, what are they going to do if Russians decide to break same conventions and decide to enter Black sea with Peter the Great? They will sink it in Bosfor? Make their own coast radioactive and evacuate Istanbul Very Happy? I dont really think so Smile

    Rodinazombie

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Rodinazombie on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:29 pm

    Either way, i can imagine all russian vessels will now be at action stations when passing through the strait whether turkey block it or not.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  sepheronx on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:36 pm

    They can ram the Turkish ships.  Wont be classified as war but "oops, didnt see you there".
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    Acheron

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Acheron on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:39 pm

    Siempre_Leal wrote:
    A BIG F*** Y** to Erdogan

    I am thinking that this whole operation in Syria is the perfect time to cobble up an AC-130 gunship analogue out of an old Russian transport plane and send it to loiter over Syria.
    Shelling oil transports and infrastructure? No problem. Blowing up jihad-mobiles? Easy peasy. Hunting durka rats amongst the hills and villages? Done deal.
    Think of all those capabilities and possibilities...

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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:40 pm

    zg18 wrote:

    And video

    This video explains why they sent the MAZ version, much easier to load/unload from transport aircraft.
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    TheArmenian

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  TheArmenian on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:44 pm

    If Turkey closes the Bosphorus for the Russians, Russia wil make sure that the Bosphorus stays closed for everybody else.

    Project Canada

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Project Canada on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:46 pm

    What if TurkISIS blocks the Bosphorus? can Russia Liberate Constantinople?
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Militarov on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:47 pm

    Acheron wrote:
    Siempre_Leal wrote:
    A BIG F*** Y** to Erdogan

    I am thinking that this whole operation in Syria is the perfect time to cobble up an AC-130 gunship analogue out of an old Russian transport plane and send it to loiter over Syria.
    Shelling oil transports and infrastructure? No problem. Blowing up jihad-mobiles? Easy peasy. Hunting durka rats amongst the hills and villages? Done deal.
    Think of all those capabilities and possibilities...


    Why not, mate 2B9 Vasilek and AN12.



    +


    ult

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  ult on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:47 pm

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    JohninMK

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  JohninMK on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:48 pm

    Militarov wrote:
    Bolt wrote:
    Militarov wrote:
    Godric wrote:not official news but their is talk of Turkey closing off the Bosphorus


    I am sure they are legally bound to keep the straits open via a treaty they signed in the 1920s

    They cant close it its aganist international law and threatys that were signed though history, unless they feel like declaring war on Russia then sure.
    Last few years should have taught people that the international law doesn't mean shit. Might is right.
    Let's say Turkey closes the straits. Then what Russia is going to do? Write an angry letter? They will summon the UN meeting, where Turkey will say they won't allow more arms to Syria that are being used to kill civilians. I know that this is bollocks, but they will say it. Then what? Attack Turkey? How, with what?
    OK, they will begin bombing the defense installations near the straits. Turkey asks for help from NATO, then what Russia is going to do?

    Laws in general do not mean alot if you are in position to ignore or create them to suit your own interest, however i just stated the fact, it would be aganist international law, if Turkey does that i dont think even US will openly support them coz they already themself broke too many international laws, i dont see them doing it again unless they want to totally destroy their own legitimacy..not like much of it is left.

    Turkey does not really have enough capable navy to close anything than a major sized river to be honest, what are they going to do if Russians decide to break same conventions and decide to enter Black sea with Peter the Great? They will sink it in Bosfor? Make their own coast radioactive and evacuate Istanbul Very Happy? I dont really think so Smile
    The problem with the Bosporus and Dardanelles is that you don't need a navy to shut them by force. A few coastal guns or even TOWs would do the trick but that would be war.

    Much better would be for a couple of cargo ships to unfortunately break down and drift across the navigable part.
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:49 pm

    sepheronx wrote:They can ram the Turkish ships.  Wont be classified as war but "oops, didnt see you there".

    Yup. Peter the Great has some serious tonnage... Cool

    Also, if rules are off then Bosporus is free for nuke powered vessels. Borei/Yasen-class ahoy!!!
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    Siempre_Leal

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Siempre_Leal on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:49 pm

    Kurds and rebels fighting near Al-Malikiyah close to Azaz - Salameh border crossing, also allegedly Russian air strikes aiding the Kurds
    http://wikimapia.org/32572379/Malikia

    https://twitter.com/F1ea1337/status/669932293356691456

    https://www.facebook.com/LCCSy/posts/1266817813345352 (arabic)

    If true of VVS is aiding, this is a very smart move.
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Militarov on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:51 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Militarov wrote:
    Bolt wrote:
    Militarov wrote:
    Godric wrote:not official news but their is talk of Turkey closing off the Bosphorus


    I am sure they are legally bound to keep the straits open via a treaty they signed in the 1920s

    They cant close it its aganist international law and threatys that were signed though history, unless they feel like declaring war on Russia then sure.
    Last few years should have taught people that the international law doesn't mean shit. Might is right.
    Let's say Turkey closes the straits. Then what Russia is going to do? Write an angry letter? They will summon the UN meeting, where Turkey will say they won't allow more arms to Syria that are being used to kill civilians. I know that this is bollocks, but they will say it. Then what? Attack Turkey? How, with what?
    OK, they will begin bombing the defense installations near the straits. Turkey asks for help from NATO, then what Russia is going to do?

    Laws in general do not mean alot if you are in position to ignore or create them to suit your own interest, however i just stated the fact, it would be aganist international law, if Turkey does that i dont think even US will openly support them coz they already themself broke too many international laws, i dont see them doing it again unless they want to totally destroy their own legitimacy..not like much of it is left.

    Turkey does not really have enough capable navy to close anything than a major sized river to be honest, what are they going to do if Russians decide to break same conventions and decide to enter Black sea with Peter the Great? They will sink it in Bosfor? Make their own coast radioactive and evacuate Istanbul Very Happy? I dont really think so Smile
    The problem with the Bosporus and Dardanelles is that you don't need a navy to shut them by force. A few coastal guns or even TOWs would do the trick but that would be war.

    Much better would be for a couple of cargo ships to unfortunately break down and drift across the navigable part.

    Exacly, that would mean a war, and i dont think Erdogan wants that happening, which means sure, they can close strait, and then ignore everything that goes though, unless they do not value their own hide enough.
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  PapaDragon on Thu Nov 26, 2015 6:56 pm



    Here Is Why Erdogan's Ambush of Russian Jet Was a Massive Blunder

    Turkish president actually undermined his Western support


    http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/erdogans-blunder/ri11452

    In shooting down the Russian SU24 Turkey’s President Erdogan has blundered badly.

    He has caused the Russians to reinforce in Syria and is feeding Western doubts about him.

    He has exposed himself to his Western allies as a dangerous and unpredictable ally.

    There is a very small possibility the shoot down of the SU24 took place without Erdogan’s knowledge.

    However the more we learn about the incident the more planned it looks

    The SU24 was shot down very close to the Turkish border. The Turks claim it crossed the border. However if it did, then by the Turks’ own account it did so for just a few seconds.

    The Turks claim they gave the SU24 10 warnings over a period of 5 minutes.

    If true, this can only have been when the SU24 was in Syrian airspace. The Russians deny they received any warnings at all.

    The US and NATO say they registered the Turkish warnings but they say it without much show of conviction.

    Fox News has broadcast what it says is one of the warnings. However, if it was provided by a Turkish source - as is likely - then it is not reliable since it could so easily have been made up after the event.

    Both sides anyway appear to agree that the SU24 was flying away from Turkey and back to its base in Syria when it was shot down. That argues against it posing any possible threat to Turkey when it was shot down.

    The SU24 crashed well inside Syria. The Russians say the Turkish F16 that shot it down entered Syrian airspace to do it. Whilst there is no independent evidence to confirm that, the location of the crash site means it may be true.

    The facts, though disputed in some places, overall do not justify the Turkish decision to shoot the SU24 down, even if it did violate Turkish airspace for a few seconds.

    Embarrassingly a recording apparently exists, made in connection to the Syrian shoot-down of a Turkish F4 fighter back in 2012, in which no less a person than Erdogan himself apparently also says that an infringement of airspace of just a few seconds does not justify shooting an aircraft down.

    Frankly the facts suggest a planned ambush by Turkish F16 fighters of a Russian aircraft engaged in bombing operations inside Syria.

    If so then Erdogan would almost certainly have been involved. He might not have given a specific order to shoot down the particular SU24 that was shot down. However he almost certainly set the rules of engagement that led to the ambush that caused it to be shot down.

    Why would he do such a thing?

    Erdogan is someone who far more closely resembles the Western image of Putin than Putin himself does.

    Where claims that Putin is corrupt and a billionaire are wholly unsubstantiated and almost certainly untrue, that Erdogan is a billionaire is an acknowledged fact, as is the involvement of some members of his family in shady business dealings.

    Contrary to his Western image Putin’s manner and language is polite and restrained. Erdogan by contrast is often aggressive and confrontational.

    Putin is highly calculating and always consults his chief advisers before making a decision.

    Erdogan is impulsive and arbitrary, and is far more likely than Putin to make decisions on the hoof.

    Unlike Putin, who puts up with everything, Erdogan is a notoriously prickly character who reacts badly to criticism.

    He has jailed opposition activists and journalists and cracked down on the media in ways that Putin never has.

    Recent events will have left Erdogan seething.

    Firstly, the Russian intervention in Syria has reversed the tide of the war, which seemed to be going his way - or rather the way of the various jihadi groups he has been backing.

    It also killed his project for a no-fly zone over Syria, which he was close to getting the US to back in the summer.

    Erdogan must also have felt humiliated at the G20 summit in Antaliya in Turkey, of which he was nominally the host.

    Putin produced evidence of the financial support the Islamic State is receiving from individuals in certain G20 countries. No one doubts Turkey is one of those G20 countries.

    We also know that Putin also showed the other G20 leaders satellite images of lines of fuel tankers transporting the Islamic State’s oil to Turkey.

    There are in fact widespread rumours of members of the Turkish establishment profiting from trade with the Islamic State. Some rumours even point the finger at members of Erdogan’s family, including his son.

    To add to Erdogan’s sense of humiliation, in the last few days the Russians have begun bombing the fuel tankers, disrupting the oil trade between the Islamic State and its go-betweens in Turkey, whilst saying pointedly that they “have” to do it because “others” are failing to.

    Lastly, the Russians have also been bombing the region close to Turkey where the SU24 was shot down.

    Several villages in this area are inhabited by people who the news media calls “Turkmen”.

    This is misleading. These people are not Turkmen from the Central Asian republic of Turkmenistan. They are ethnic Turks who were left in Syria when the Ottoman empire broke up.

    The Western media regularly accuses Putin of posing as the defender of ethnic Russians outside Russia and of using ethnic Russians to destabilise the governments of former Soviet states.

    There is no evidence of this or that Putin has ever entertained the ambition to recreate the USSR that is commonly attributed to him - including by no less a person than Obama himself.

    By contrast Erdogan definitely does pose as the defender of Turks outside Turkey.

    He has also pursued a “neo-Ottoman” foreign policy intended to reassert Turkish influence in neighbouring states like Syria that were once part of the Ottoman empire.

    Given these ambitions, Russian bombing of an area of Syria inhabited by ethnic Turks - one previously marked out by Erdogan for one of his safe havens - would for Erdogan have been both infuriating and humiliating. It is easy to see how he might see it as a challenge.

    In the light of all this, it is not difficult to see how someone like Erdogan, out of a mixture of anger, injured pride and miscalculation, might have ordered his air force to set an ambush to shoot down a Russian airplane when a good opportunity arose.

    No doubt he calculated that when that happened the West would back him as a NATO ally threatened by Russian “aggression”.

    That way he might have hoped to get his own back at the Russians and to wrest the political initiative back from them, whilst reassuring his allies in Syria and his supporters in Turkey that he is still a force to be reckoned with.

    His officials over the last few days have been issuing warnings to the Russians to stop bombing ethnic Turkish areas.


    In light of what has happened these warnings look like an attempt to set up an alibi to justify the shooting down of a Russian aircraft before it took place.

    That the shoot-down was a planned rather than a spontaneous act, is also strongly suggested by how the Turks reacted after it took place.

    Instead of complaining to the Russians or - better still - asking for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, which is the appropriate venue to discuss an event like that, the Turks turned to NATO instead.

    The Russians have complained about this, and frankly it looks like an attempt to gain diplomatic cover from Turkey’s Western allies for a shoot-down that was planned in advance.

    What has happened since however shows the extent of Erdogan’s miscalculation.

    Firstly, the circumstances of the shoot-down were not prepared properly.

    Instead of coming up with a convincing scenario that might justify the shoot-down, the Turks did the opposite. The best they could come up with was a claim the SU24 violated Turkish airspace for just a few seconds.

    That makes the Turks rather than the Russians look aggressive and irresponsible.

    The result is that judging from the comments appearing on Western media threads, the Western public is unconvinced and is swinging behind the Russians instead of the Turks.

    The Russians for their part are refusing to follow Erdogan’s script.

    Instead of warning and threatening the Turks in a way that might have given credence to Turkish claims of Russian “aggression”, they are stressing Turkey’s connections to the Islamic State and are taking steps to beef up their air defences.

    They have moved the Moskva missile cruiser with its S300 missiles closer to the Syrian coast and have publicly given its captain orders to destroy aircraft that threaten their strike force.

    They are also deploying the very powerful and sophisticated S400 anti aircraft missile system to their air base in Syria.

    There is also a strong probability the Russians will reinforce their strike group in Syria with more air defence fighters.

    They have publicly said their strike aircraft are henceforth forbidden from flying without air cover from Russian fighters.

    Since there are only four Russian fighters in Syria - the four SU30s at Latakia - it is difficult to see how this can be done without sending more fighters there.

    In other words what Erdogan has achieved is to give the Russians the reason or excuse to reinforce their air group in Syria beyond anything they had probably planned or intended.

    With the deployment of S400 missiles in Syria, and the likely deployment of more sophisticated Russian fighters there, the balance of military power in the region is shifting even further away from Turkey, Israel and the US.

    US and Israeli policy has been to do everything possible to prevent deployment of missile systems like the S400 to the region. The S400’s deployment to Syria has overturned that.

    Combined with the deployment of sophisticated Russian fighters to Syria - now almost certainly on their way - events are moving in a way that must be filling Washington and Jerusalem with concern. They must be furious with Erdogan for bringing it about.

    That however is only the start of it.

    The biggest nightmare for the US and its European allies is not that the Turks will shoot down a Russian aircraft. It is that the Russians will shoot down a Turkish aircraft in circumstances where Western public opinion backs Russia.

    The US and NATO do not want to be put in a position where they have to choose between upsetting the Turks by failing to give them the sort of backing the Turks feel they are entitled to as a NATO ally, and upsetting Western public opinion by siding publicly with Turkey and the jihadis groups it supports in a dispute with Russia in which Western public opinion backs Russia.

    Erdogan has just brought that nightmare scenario for the West much closer.

    The anger this is causing, and which Western leaders privately feel towards Erdogan, is shown by what they said after the SU24 was shot down.

    If Erdogan was expecting a resounding show of support he must be disappointed.

    Though the US and NATO made ritual comments of support, the main theme of their comments was not support for Turkey but a demand for restraint.

    Some of the comments contained clear criticism of Turkey.

    The harshest comments came from Germany. Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel was especially outspoken, saying

    “This incident shows for the first time that we are to dealing with an actor who is unpredictable according to statements from various parties of the region – that is not Russia, that is Turkey.”

    He was backed by his SPD colleague Foreign Minister Steinmeier, who said

    “What we must hope for is that this occurrence will not deal a setback to the encouraging first talks, which offer a small hope of de-escalating the Syrian conflict.”

    Angela Merkel’s spokesman, Steffan Siebert, simply said

    “We call on Ankara and Moscow to do everything possible to avoid a further escalation.”

    These words put Ankara - a German ally and NATO partner - on the same level as Moscow, Berlin's and NATO's supposed adversary.

    Elsewhere words of support for Turkey have been lukewarm at best.

    Steve Warren, spokesman for the US-led Combined Joint Task Force, said

    “This is an incident between the Russian and the Turkish governments. It is not an issue that involves the [US-led coalition operations]. Our combat operations against ISIL (IS, ISIS) continue as planned and we are striking in both Iraq and Syria.”

    A spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron - usually a staunch critic of Russia’s - put it this way:

    “The prime minister strongly encouraged (Turkish) Prime Minister Davutoglu to make sure that there was direct communication between the Turks and the Russians on this.”

    Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop - one of the most outspoken critics of Russia in connection with the MH17 tragedy - said:

    “We are concerned about the incident where a Russian aircraft was shot down in the Syrian-Turkish border area, and we ask relevant parties to exercise restraint”.

    Lastly, Obama himself, in a telephone conversation to Erdogan, mixed his support with a plain warning. According to a White House statement he said that

    “(Whilst) US and NATO support Turkey's right to defend its sovereignty……The leaders (ie. Obama and Erdogan - AM) agreed on the importance of de-escalating the situation and pursuing arrangements to ensure that such incidents do not happen again.”

    It is impossible to read in these comments anything other than an implied - and in the German case a not so implied - rebuke of Erdogan. If is he after all he who has failed to exercise “restraint” by authorising his air force to shoot the SU24 down.

    The West has not yet quite brought itself to abandon him. However he is now under notice to behave himself. If he fails to do so he risks finding himself on his own.
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    Kadmos45

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Kadmos45 on Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:23 pm

    The one important thing Erdogan and turks forgot is that West considers them as subhuman savages and subordinates,  their NATO membership is only virtual and no article will save their asses,  not to mention that they have enemy like Greece inside Nato.
    BTW. Only NATO members on this side of Atlantic that are really protected are UK, France and Germany.

    Russia could glass Stambool and Ankara and it still will not be III WW, anglozioni will do nothing but military build up and trying to remove Putin (but hey they already trying to do that ! ) it'll be nothing more, this is not London, Paris or Berlin.They're not part of the West and will never be.
    Guess why they're not even in EU ?
    They're just one point above Albania to them - totally expendable. It would be just slightly different if Erdogan only carry out his orders and not trying some independent Ottoman idiocy ...
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    Bolt

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Bolt on Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:48 pm

    Militarov wrote:

    Exacly, that would mean a war, and i dont think Erdogan wants that happening, which means sure, they can close strait, and then ignore everything that goes though, unless they do not value their own hide enough.
    The day before I thought that deliberate downing of a SU-24 would mean war.
    Now, however, it looks it doesn't?
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    Solncepek

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Solncepek on Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:58 pm

    Вот уже вторые сутки мир в напряжении: чем же ответит Кремль на «удар в спину». И, надо сказать, что парализованные страхом турки – это далеко не самая напряженная точка на глобусе.



    Еще большее «электричество» витает на Аравийском полуострове и на другом конце земного шара, где-то в районе Северной Америки: там ждут нашей несдержанной реакции на намеренную, четко спланированную и беспрецедентную по своей подлости провокацию. И это не мои домыслы, я опираюсь на выводы экспертов, которые буквально на пальцах объясняют, почему охоту на наш СУ-24 турки не смогли бы реализовать в одиночку, а им помогали вполне заинтересованные лица в командных пунктах в вышеназванных точках планеты.



    Как считает военный эксперт, постоянный автор журнала «Арсенал Отечества», специалист в области применения Военно-космических сил Алексей Леонков, даже то, что наш самолет поджидали в засаде турецкие перехватчики, на земле располагалась диверсионно-разведывательная группа, замаскированная под местных туркоманов, были заранее завезены съемочные группы CNN и FOX – это лишь надводная часть айсберга.



    На самом деле операция началась гораздо раньше. С самого начала нашей спецоперации в Сирии натовская разведка пристально следила за всеми передвижениями самолетов ВКС, фиксировала и брала на карандаш, используя для этого космическую, воздушную и наземную разведку, изучая полетные траектории и эшелоны.
    Два самолета Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS поднялись в воздух 24 ноября. Один, приписанный к ВВС США с базы в Греции, второй, принадлежащий ВВС Саудовской Аравии, с авиабазы Riyadh. Они следили и выбирали жертву с помощью системы слежения за состоянием РЛС СУ-24, чтобы выяснить, в каком режиме он летит – в поисках цели, в состоянии захвата, сопровождения или выработки данных для стрельбы.



    Выяснив, что наша сушка летит в состоянии покоя, и выбрали ее в качестве жертвы, передав информацию турецким F-16. Но даже этой наведенческой информации не хватило бы для точного удара с F-16, ее обеспечивали наземные комплексы ПВО Patriot США, размещенные в Турции и спутники радиоразведки MENTOR, не исключено, что в спутниковой группировке участвовал еще КА «Геосат».



    Откуда такие выводы? Леонков говорит, что траектория полета F-16 говорит о высокоточном выходе на цель по методу триангуляции: американо-саудовская пара Е-3А плюс РЛС ЗРК Patriot плюс геостационарные спутники РЭР MENTOR и, возможно, КА «Геосат».



    При этом Е-3 давали указания, где наш самолет в воздухе, определяли его эшелон, скорость, состояние управления оружием, РЛС ЗРК Patriot совместно со спутником радиоэлектронной разведки MENTOR обеспечивал телеметрию движения Су-24 относительно поверхности — то есть выдал точный прогнозируемый сектор появления нашего самолета относительно гористой местности.



    После точных указаний, один из турецких F-16 практически в упор (!) пустил ракету «воздух-воздух» AIM-9X Sidewinder в заднюю полусферу российского бомбардировщика, а второй работал в режиме «подсветка цели».



    Но даже имея абсолютно точные данные о цели, турки оплошали: они вышли на поражение с опозданием на 2 минуты, когда Су-24 уже покинул участок спорной 68-километровой территории на севере Сирии (на ее пролет ему потребовалось 1,5 минуты максимум). Команду «на поражение» F-16 не отменили, поэтому пуск ракет был произведен чуть дальше расчетной точки.
    Рекомендуем: Звезда по имени Путин. Zolotoy



    Это подтверждает и то, что съемка падения Су-24 планировалась как с территории Сирии, так и с территории Турции, однако «сирийские» кадры более подробны. Понятно, что это только версия специалиста, но лично я не нахожу повода усомниться в его словах.



    Получается, что без помощи Штатов и саудитов, турки бы ни за что не провернули бы такую сложную операцию – у них элементарно не хватило бы силенок. И помогали те не только разведданными и советами, а непосредственно участвовали в нападении на наш самолет.


    Last edited by Solncepek on Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
    avatar
    Zivo

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Zivo on Thu Nov 26, 2015 7:59 pm

    Bolt wrote:
    Militarov wrote:

    Exacly, that would mean a war, and i dont think Erdogan wants that happening, which means sure, they can close strait, and then ignore everything that goes though, unless they do not value their own hide enough.
    The day before I thought that deliberate downing of a SU-24 would mean war.
    Now, however, it looks it doesn't?

    Those S-400's are not for show, they are is Syria to protect Russian aircraft.

    I believe that the possibility of war is much higher now than yesterday.

    Rodinazombie

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Rodinazombie on Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:01 pm

    Solncepek wrote:
    Вот уже вторые сутки мир в напряжении: чем же ответит Кремль на «удар в спину». И, надо сказать, что парализованные страхом турки – это далеко не самая напряженная точка на глобусе.



    Еще большее «электричество» витает на Аравийском полуострове и на другом конце земного шара, где-то в районе Северной Америки: там ждут нашей несдержанной реакции на намеренную, четко спланированную и беспрецедентную по своей подлости провокацию. И это не мои домыслы, я опираюсь на выводы экспертов, которые буквально на пальцах объясняют, почему охоту на наш СУ-24 турки не смогли бы реализовать в одиночку, а им помогали вполне заинтересованные лица в командных пунктах в вышеназванных точках планеты.



    Как считает военный эксперт, постоянный автор журнала «Арсенал Отечества», специалист в области применения Военно-космических сил Алексей Леонков, даже то, что наш самолет поджидали в засаде турецкие перехватчики, на земле располагалась диверсионно-разведывательная группа, замаскированная под местных туркоманов, были заранее завезены съемочные группы CNN и FOX – это лишь надводная часть айсберга.



    На самом деле операция началась гораздо раньше. С самого начала нашей спецоперации в Сирии натовская разведка пристально следила за всеми передвижениями самолетов ВКС, фиксировала и брала на карандаш, используя для этого космическую, воздушную и наземную разведку, изучая полетные траектории и эшелоны.
    Два самолета Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS поднялись в воздух 24 ноября. Один, приписанный к ВВС США с базы в Греции, второй, принадлежащий ВВС Саудовской Аравии, с авиабазы Riyadh. Они следили и выбирали жертву с помощью системы слежения за состоянием РЛС СУ-24, чтобы выяснить, в каком режиме он летит – в поисках цели, в состоянии захвата, сопровождения или выработки данных для стрельбы.



    Выяснив, что наша сушка летит в состоянии покоя, и выбрали ее в качестве жертвы, передав информацию турецким F-16. Но даже этой наведенческой информации не хватило бы для точного удара с F-16, ее обеспечивали наземные комплексы ПВО Patriot США, размещенные в Турции и спутники радиоразведки MENTOR, не исключено, что в спутниковой группировке участвовал еще КА «Геосат».



    Откуда такие выводы? Леонков говорит, что траектория полета F-16 говорит о высокоточном выходе на цель по методу триангуляции: американо-саудовская пара Е-3А плюс РЛС ЗРК Patriot плюс геостационарные спутники РЭР MENTOR и, возможно, КА «Геосат».



    При этом Е-3 давали указания, где наш самолет в воздухе, определяли его эшелон, скорость, состояние управления оружием, РЛС ЗРК Patriot совместно со спутником радиоэлектронной разведки MENTOR обеспечивал телеметрию движения Су-24 относительно поверхности — то есть выдал точный прогнозируемый сектор появления нашего самолета относительно гористой местности.



    После точных указаний, один из турецких F-16 практически в упор (!) пустил ракету «воздух-воздух» AIM-9X Sidewinder в заднюю полусферу российского бомбардировщика, а второй работал в режиме «подсветка цели».



    Но даже имея абсолютно точные данные о цели, турки оплошали: они вышли на поражение с опозданием на 2 минуты, когда Су-24 уже покинул участок спорной 68-километровой территории на севере Сирии (на ее пролет ему потребовалось 1,5 минуты максимум). Команду «на поражение» F-16 не отменили, поэтому пуск ракет был произведен чуть дальше расчетной точки.
    Рекомендуем:  Звезда по имени Путин. Zolotoy



    Это подтверждает и то, что съемка падения Су-24 планировалась как с территории Сирии, так и с территории Турции, однако «сирийские» кадры более подробны. Понятно, что это только версия специалиста, но лично я не нахожу повода усомниться в его словах.



    Получается, что без помощи Штатов и саудитов, турки бы ни за что не провернули бы такую сложную операцию – у них элементарно не хватило бы силенок. И помогали те не только разведданными и советами, а непосредственно участвовали в нападении на наш самолет.

    Is it too difficult to run that through a translator before posting it?


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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Militarov on Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:07 pm

    Bolt wrote:
    Militarov wrote:

    Exacly, that would mean a war, and i dont think Erdogan wants that happening, which means sure, they can close strait, and then ignore everything that goes though, unless they do not value their own hide enough.
    The day before I thought that deliberate downing of a SU-24 would mean war.
    Now, however, it looks it doesn't?

    One thing is to hit a jet and claim it entered your airspace and totally different to attack ship in strait that is considered as international waters.
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    Bolt

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

    Post  Bolt on Thu Nov 26, 2015 8:20 pm

    Look at what Ukraine is doing with its citizens for two years, I don't see the UN condemning their actions, do you? That's because it is beneficial for US.
    As I said, if Turkey claims that the Russians use the Straits to oppress poor civilians in the area and they, the bright shield of justice, just can't let this happen anymore? You think US will say anything to back up Russia's position?
    Who's else in the Black Sea region that could protest? Bulgaria? the country that closed the air space for Russia's air deliveries to Syria? Romania, who has Moldova's issue at hand? Georgia? Finally, Ukraine?
    The rest of Europe - the Baltics will bark the same as US, the same goes to the Balkans and probably Poland. UK supports anti-Assad forces, France wouldn't give a shit (it even openly supplied arms to FSA some time ago), I'm not sure what would be the reaction of modern Germany. The only country in Europe that I can see saying something in protest of such Turkey's possible move is Hungary, that's it.

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #5

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