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    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

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    Dima

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  Dima on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:17 pm

    Solncepek,
    That was good and funny.  thumbsup
    But I cant see that mental guy, who came with an illustration of Iranain n-bomb in the UN, being represented in gang.

    par far wrote:
    ultron wrote:What's the difference between SAA and the Iranian army? Corruption. Cowardice. Incompetence. Iran is a religious Shia country. What is Syria? Corrupt and secular. That's the difference. You don't see insurgents in Iran. In Syria there are even insurgents in the capital city.


    The Iranian army is not corrupted and they are not cowards, if that were true, they would not exist. Assad trusted the west and that was his big mistake. And by the way, why are you such a fucking troll asshole?
    Why are you people entertaining a ghost?
    That guy is supposed to have committed suicide on 30th Sep 2015...
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  PapaDragon on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:25 pm

    Dima wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    iraqidabab wrote:Is it true Russia might establish itself in that Kuwaires or something airbase in Aleppo when the siege is broken

    No need for that from what I can tell.

    Coastline and Lebanese border are prime realestate in Syria and Russia already has those in the bag. Rest of it is mostly desert and even helicopters can make round trip around the country from Latakia with extra fuel tanks, to say nothing about jets.
    I think they will, but not sure.
    I personally feel they should as it will help base the attack choppers in the base and the units operating out of the base will be able to give good close air-support for the advancing units. Operating out of Latakia for ops in the east is not practical due to the time involved. What the advancing units around Aleppo and east needs are close air-support on short notice and it can only come from units based in Kuweries.

    situation map, 25 Oct 2014, around Aleppo and Kuweries posted earlier in the thread.
    http://www.russiadefence.net/viewimage.forum?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FCSKq0qGUEAAmmZ7.jpg%3Alarge

    I'm sure once air-base is linked and areas secured for attack choppers to be based, we'll see a good chunk of territory changing hands around Aleppo and east and Raqqa.

    That would work but it will probably be done later in the war when that whole area is secured. Probably by the time Raqqua region moves higher on the target roster and SAA regroups for next push.

    I don't have old maps to compare ATM but is that SAA controlled region around Aleppo getting wider or am I wrong? Did they trick terrorists into moving troops into city and leave surrounding region undefended and easier to take over?

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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  PapaDragon on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:29 pm


    Johnny McCain blows another hemorrhoid... lol1

    McCain Ranting and Raving Over US-Russian Flights Safety Deal in Syria

    http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151025/1029093077/us-senator-mccain-angry-flights-safety-deal-syria.html#ixzz3pbrO6wya

    ---------------------------


    EDIT:

    That target roster I just mentioned? Guess who volunteered to sign themselves up...Cool

    Syria conflict: FSA rebels reject Russia military help

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34632483


    Last edited by PapaDragon on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:32 pm; edited 1 time in total

    ultron

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  ultron on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:31 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:
    Syria is much poorer than both Israel and the Gulf nations... It does not have $5 bilion of money to spend on military equipment each year... and Russia is not rich enough to send dozens of tanks for free like USSR did. Well, if China wanted to, it could pay for new military equipment for Syria  - but would they be willing to?

    Well, gee. Israel don't have oil and is a fraction the size of Syria. If Russia really supports Syria the way the US supports Israel, then Syrian soldiers would have AK-74s by now as their main service rifle. Russia hardly supports Syria with equipment.
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  Militarov on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:39 pm

    ultron wrote:Helicopters should be operating just behind the front line supporting army advance. In the US helicopters are part of army, not part of air force. Helicopters do not need to operate from an air base and should not do so.

    What is exacly reason aganist operating Army and Airforce aircraft from the same base? US does that all the time...
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  PapaDragon on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:42 pm


    Even morons at Financial Times had to admit that Russian ops in Syria will be el cheapo...lol1

    WARNING: Reading some parts of this article WILL damage your brain!!! I am posting it whole here so that you do not have to give them cheap clicks study


    Russia defies recession to fund Syria conflict

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8f9c21fa-7957-11e5-933d-efcdc3c11c89.html#axzz3pWIWDvGl

    Any western leader who launched a military operation abroad in the middle of a stinging recession would have a hard time convincing the nation to pay for it. But as the Russian government sent its draft budget for 2016 to the Duma on Friday night, nobody even mentioned President Vladimir Putin’s bombing campaign in Syria.

    Low oil prices, a weak rouble and western sanctions have caused the country’s economy to contract by 3.4 per cent in the first half of the year and, as Russia relies on oil-related revenues for half of its budget, this has forced some belt-tightening.

    Pensions, for example, will increase by no more than 4 per cent next year, according to the budget — far short of the inflation rate of 12 per cent.

    Despite all this, Moscow can easily afford its military operation in Syria — both because it is cheap compared with similar endeavours by the US, and because 17 consecutive years of funding increases and an opaque budget have helped to fill the military’s pockets, say defence experts.

    Even if Russia continued its air strikes at the current level for a full year, it would use less than 3 per cent of the funds budgeted for national defence in 2016, according to IHS Jane’s, the defence research group, and Financial Times calculations.

    “We believe a campaign like the one they are running there right now would cost between $2.3m and $4m a day,” said Ben Moores, senior analyst at IHS Jane’s.

    A sum of 3.15tn roubles ($51bn) has been earmarked for national defence expenditure next year. The government reversed some earlier planned defence budget cuts this week, so the 2016 draft defence budget marks a 0.8 per cent increase over this year, but both as a share of total public spending and of gross domestic product, it is decreasing slightly for the first time in years.

    However, more than a quarter of this year’s budget was earmarked for military expenditure, and vast parts of the military budget are secret.

    This absence of public oversight and of a visible financial burden allows Mr Putin to continue or even expand his high-profile geopolitical challenge to the west.

    On the back of constant state television coverage, which describes Russia’s three-week bombing campaign in Syria as a fight against evil, the independent pollster Levada found that support for Moscow’s military action had soared from a mere 14 per cent in late September to more than 70 per cent.

    Mr Putin’s support ratings had hit an all-time high of 89.9 per cent, state-backed pollster VTsIOM said this week.

    Mr Moores’ calculation of the war cost is based on the assumption that Russia has 36 fighter aircraft and 20 helicopters at its Latakia air base which fly an average of 30 sorties a day and drop five bombs per sortie. In addition, he takes into account the presence of at least 1,500 soldiers deployed, plus naval support.
    Russia cost of war

    According to IHS data, Russia could sustain its troops in Syria at little more than one-tenth of the roughly $4m it costs the US per day to support the same number of soldiers in Afghanistan.

    This is because Russia can save fuel by sustaining the troops by sea, its soldiers’ salaries, food and medical bills are lower, and the military personnel are believed to be concentrated at base rather than spread out in combat.

    According to recent figures released by the Pentagon, the US has so far spent roughly $4bn in its 14-month-old campaign against Isis Islamist fighters — roughly $10m a day.

    Other foreign and Russian defence experts said it was impossible to calculate the cost of the Syria intervention accurately, due to Moscow’s opaque defence budget. But they agree that it is likely to be minuscule compared with total military spending.

    “This [Syria campaign spending] is going to just disappear in the huge black hole that is our country’s military budget,” said Vasily Zatsepin, an expert on military economics at the independent Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. “The transparency of our defence spending is decreasing from one defence minister to the next.”

    Russia’s national defence budget accounts for less than half of the country’s total military expenditure, which is expected to hit 5.42 per cent of GDP this year, according to Julian Cooper, an expert on Russian military spending at the University of Birmingham. On top of that, the military spends each year an amount equivalent to 60 per cent of the national defence budget on arms procurement, maintenance and development.

    A senior government official said the cost of the Syria operation was expected to be covered by reducing the number and scale of domestic military exercises. The ministry of defence does not disclose details on the cost of such exercises.

    IHS’s calculations exclude the launch of 26 cruise missiles against Syrian insurgents on October 7, Mr Putin’s birthday. A Russian official said the use of the missiles was “very expensive”, but defence experts noted that a smaller number would have been launched as part of an exercise anyway.

    Russian military experts said several other military expenditure categories also offered reserves that could be used for the Syria war.
    In depth

    Western policymakers and strategists are trying to figure out what Vladimir Putin’s military goals are in Syria — and if he intends to help the Assad regime regain territory lost to opposition forces

    “Even though the Russian armed forces officially have 1m personnel, everybody knows that the real number is closer to 850,000, but the ministry of finance still provides funds for 1m,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Russian defence think-tank.

    Funds claimed by the ministry of defence for expenditure such as bonuses for soldiers could be channelled into the war effort, he said.

    Several defence analysts added that an expected slowdown in procurements under a multi-year armaments programme would free up money for the Syria campaign. Moreover, they expect that Moscow is lowering the cost of the war by using expired ammunition stocks and making Syria foot at least part of the Russian air force’s fuel bill.
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    Walther von Oldenburg

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:58 pm

    ultron wrote:
    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:
    Syria is much poorer than both Israel and the Gulf nations... It does not have $5 bilion of money to spend on military equipment each year... and Russia is not rich enough to send dozens of tanks for free like USSR did. Well, if China wanted to, it could pay for new military equipment for Syria  - but would they be willing to?

    Well, gee. Israel don't have oil and is a fraction the size of Syria. If Russia really supports Syria the way the US supports Israel, then Syrian soldiers would have AK-74s by now as their main service rifle. Russia hardly supports Syria with equipment.
    Syria has a miltiary budget of about $3.3 bln, Israel has $16 bln and Saudi Arabia has $52 bln

    US aid to Israel accounts to about $4 bln yearly, the rest comes from Israeli taxpayers of course... so if Russia wanted to bring Syria's military budget to Israeli level, iot would have to give Syria $13 bln per year... well, good luck in finding that much money.

    Syria is simply POOR - if it had GDP per capita of Jordan, it could reach Israel's level of military spending. If it had GDP per capita of KSA, it could spend about $40 bln per year on the army.
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    Werewolf

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  Werewolf on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:58 pm

    ultron wrote:
    par far wrote:
    The Iranian army is not corrupted and they are not cowards, if that were true, they would not exist. Assad trusted the west and that was his big mistake. And by the way, why are you such a fucking troll asshole?

    Assad made the mistake of not modernizing Syria's military. While Israel has the latest F-15s and F-16s and Merkava 4s and Tavors, Syrian soldiers drive T-55s, fly MiG-21s, shoot AK-47s.

    Israel is a disgusting terrorist state with the biggest lobby on this planet they get everything for free or on discount to such absurd conditions like our german submarines almost for free. Israel wouldn't exist for a single month without all countries helping this terrorist state.
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  Militarov on Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:59 pm

    ultron wrote:
    par far wrote:
    The Iranian army is not corrupted and they are not cowards, if that were true, they would not exist. Assad trusted the west and that was his big mistake. And by the way, why are you such a fucking troll asshole?

    Assad made the mistake of not modernizing Syria's military. While Israel has the latest F-15s and F-16s and Merkava 4s and Tavors, Syrian soldiers drive T-55s, fly MiG-21s, shoot AK-47s.

    Emm, Israel does not operate "latest" F15 or F16, that for start, they operate locally modernised F15A,B,C,D and I, none of which can be said really to be "latest F15", actually they all except I were built mostly in 80s. No real F15E/SE in their service or F16 Block 60/61. Word latest simply does not fit there.

    Merkava 4s are just like 50% of Israeli tank fleet and Tavors are still entering service. MiG21 in Syrian service was already retired in majority when war started, and they were just signed contract for MiG29s and Yak130. Also backbone of Syrian Air force was somewhat actually MiG23 not MiG21, which generally speaking were obtained at similar time as first Israeli F15s, mid 70s.

    And again, AK47 is prototype weapon, its AK for service manuals and books, AK47 in Russia does not exist. What you call AK47 in hands of Syrian soldiers is AKM/Type 56/M70.

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    Solncepek

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  Solncepek on Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:03 pm

    Analysis from a russian observer:

    Despite the efficient operation of Russian airforces, offensive Syrian army on rebel positions is very sluggish. It almost goes flat. Until now, there was not one captured a major city, but as a rule of the air allows for the proper organization of ground operations to achieve success on the ground.

    The Syrian army has taken a few small settlements, villages actually. In the north of Latakia Syrian troops captured three settlements, and a few on the southern outskirts of Salma. Continue the offensive on Aleppo Idlib. Go fighting against militants in the neighborhoods and Dzhobar Haraszti Eastern Guta district, a suburb of Damascus.

    The rate of advance of the Syrian army in recent days has slowed significantly. This is due primarily to the fact that the Syrians are moving in several directions at once operational, are not trying to surround one or another group of rebels. Is slow ousting militants in order to restore the transport connectivity of the government-controlled territory and dislodge militants from Damascus.

    Since the Second World War, the only effective means of capturing large cities are assault groups (SH). They include scouts, sappers, snipers, signalers and compact infantry units. The assault group supported by tanks, but the main striking force of the SH - artillery large and super-large caliber.

    During the storming of Berlin by Soviet troops played a major role divisions especially large caliber artillery from artkorpusov breakthrough - 203 mm and 305 mm howitzer. With their help destroyed centers of resistance in buildings that could not be destroyed by any tanks or 152 mm howitzer.

    The Syrian army artillery so no. Her arms are 122-mm self-propelled guns, "carnation", 152-mm self-propelled guns, "Acacia", 122 mm howitzer D-30 and M-30, a large number of 130-mm guns M-46 152 mm howitzer D-20 and ML-20. The entire park of artillery - of Soviet production.

    Given the fact that in the suburbs of Damascus, the building is not so strong as in Berlin of the Third Reich, the Syrians would, in my opinion, to use guns M-46, which have several hundred (700-800), as part of the assault teams. But, apparently, the army of the government of Syria is not the necessary experience and ability and desire to create such SH.

    But this means that the set before the start of a ground operation against terrorists task will not be performed. Frontal attack on major cities such as Aleppo, the forces of infantry, supported by tanks, even, will only lead to great losses of troops and armored vehicles.

    It is increasingly clear that the Russian air group in Syria needs to be strengthened. Since the airfield in Latakia can not take more than 50 strike aircraft will probably have to negotiate with the Iranians about the use of our planes of their airfields. Which, incidentally, will allow to put air strikes on the positions of the terrorists not only in Syria.

    Until now, Iranian participation units in operations in Syria is very limited. In the fighting, together with the Syrian army is involved, apparently, only special unit "Al Quds", the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

    Since Iran is certainly too afraid to irritate the US, which may renew those or other sanctions against it, then the negotiations for Russian aircraft to be based on Iranian airfields and involvement of Iranian forces in ground operations are being questioned.

    Russian media have reported on the participation of mercenaries from Russia to the fighting on the side of the Syrian government. Ostensibly a call for volunteers willing to fight for a good reward in Syria held a private military company known as "PMC Wagner."

    The publication «Fontanka.ru» has published an interview with the managers of the alleged PMC, in which he said: "Full fighters private military company does not advertise here. She's not in reference books and registers. Among devoted she is known as "PMC Wagner." Until recently, the main force of this formation took part in the armed conflict in the breakaway Luhansk People's Republic, now there is a relocation to Syria.

    "PMC Wagner" - one of the most secret units fighting in the LC and the DNI. Commanders and fighters never give interviews, photograph with Ukrainian trophies do not appear in social networks, they are not mentioned in the official release of the power of self-proclaimed republics.

    The core of the future "PMC Wagner" was formed in the same place where the men went today - on the territory of the Syrian Republic. In autumn 2013 Russian managers private military company Moran Security Group, Vadim Gusev and Yevgeny Sidorov, formed a band of 267 "contractors" for the "protection of deposits and pipelines" in a belligerent country.

    After a month of training camp under the protection of Latakia instead rigs "Slavic body" got involved in combat engagement with parts of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (LIH - banned organization in Russia), and after being wounded six of his fighters retreated. "

    According to Russian bloggers, the number of units of the Russian citizens who are fighting on the side of Assad, not more than two thousand people, which can not seriously affect the course of the ground operation.
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  PapaDragon on Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:08 pm

    Solncepek wrote:
    ...........................

    "PMC Wagner" - one of the most secret units fighting in the LC and the DNI. Commanders and fighters never give interviews, photograph with Ukrainian trophies do not appear in social networks, they are not mentioned in the official release of the power of self-proclaimed republics.

    ..............................................

    According to Russian bloggers, the number of units of the Russian citizens who are fighting on the side of Assad, not more than two thousand people, which can not seriously affect the course of the ground operation.

    And this is how we know that your entire post is steaming pile of horseshit.

    And again, no sources... do you and Monarchist visit same websites?

    ult

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  ult on Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:26 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Solncepek wrote:
    ...........................

    "PMC Wagner" - one of the most secret units fighting in the LC and the DNI. Commanders and fighters never give interviews, photograph with Ukrainian trophies do not appear in social networks, they are not mentioned in the official release of the power of self-proclaimed republics.

    ..............................................

    According to Russian bloggers, the number of units of the Russian citizens who are fighting on the side of Assad, not more than two thousand people, which can not seriously affect the course of the ground operation.

    And this is how we know that your entire post is steaming pile of horseshit.

    And again, no sources... do you and Monarchist visit same websites?

    I have a guess where this came from. Fontanka - http://www.fontanka.ru/2015/10/22/144/

    They quote this picture of guys in standard issued Ratnik kits standing right next to Mi-8AMTSh, and they say I quote "«Фонтанка» уверена, что запечатленные на фото бойцы на военной службе в ВКС не состоят и вообще к Вооруженным силам России в настоящее время отношения не имеют. " - "Fontanka is sure that the people on the photo aren't related to Russian armed forces in any way."

    Here is a picture they are talking about. 6B45, 6B47, 6B51 and so on.



    And here is a picture of Russian soldier patrolling the airbase.



    Fucking morons. Rolling Eyes

    par far

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  par far on Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:40 pm

    Solncepek wrote:Analysis from a russian observer:

    Despite the efficient operation of Russian airforces, offensive Syrian army on rebel positions is very sluggish. It almost goes flat. Until now, there was not one captured a major city, but as a rule of the air allows for the proper organization of ground operations to achieve success on the ground.

    The Syrian army has taken a few small settlements, villages actually. In the north of Latakia Syrian troops captured three settlements, and a few on the southern outskirts of Salma. Continue the offensive on Aleppo Idlib. Go fighting against militants in the neighborhoods and Dzhobar Haraszti Eastern Guta district, a suburb of Damascus.

    The rate of advance of the Syrian army in recent days has slowed significantly. This is due primarily to the fact that the Syrians are moving in several directions at once operational, are not trying to surround one or another group of rebels. Is slow ousting militants in order to restore the transport connectivity of the government-controlled territory and dislodge militants from Damascus.

    Since the Second World War, the only effective means of capturing large cities are assault groups (SH). They include scouts, sappers, snipers, signalers and compact infantry units. The assault group supported by tanks, but the main striking force of the SH - artillery large and super-large caliber.

    During the storming of Berlin by Soviet troops played a major role divisions especially large caliber artillery from artkorpusov breakthrough - 203 mm and 305 mm howitzer. With their help destroyed centers of resistance in buildings that could not be destroyed by any tanks or 152 mm howitzer.

    The Syrian army artillery so no. Her arms are 122-mm self-propelled guns, "carnation", 152-mm self-propelled guns, "Acacia", 122 mm howitzer D-30 and M-30, a large number of 130-mm guns M-46 152 mm howitzer D-20 and ML-20. The entire park of artillery - of Soviet production.

    Given the fact that in the suburbs of Damascus, the building is not so strong as in Berlin of the Third Reich, the Syrians would, in my opinion, to use guns M-46, which have several hundred (700-800), as part of the assault teams. But, apparently, the army of the government of Syria is not the necessary experience and ability and desire to create such SH.

    But this means that the set before the start of a ground operation against terrorists task will not be performed. Frontal attack on major cities such as Aleppo, the forces of infantry, supported by tanks, even, will only lead to great losses of troops and armored vehicles.

    It is increasingly clear that the Russian air group in Syria needs to be strengthened. Since the airfield in Latakia can not take more than 50 strike aircraft will probably have to negotiate with the Iranians about the use of our planes of their airfields. Which, incidentally, will allow to put air strikes on the positions of the terrorists not only in Syria.

    Until now, Iranian participation units in operations in Syria is very limited. In the fighting, together with the Syrian army is involved, apparently, only special unit "Al Quds", the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

    Since Iran is certainly too afraid to irritate the US, which may renew those or other sanctions against it, then the negotiations for Russian aircraft to be based on Iranian airfields and involvement of Iranian forces in ground operations are being questioned.

    Russian media have reported on the participation of mercenaries from Russia to the fighting on the side of the Syrian government. Ostensibly a call for volunteers willing to fight for a good reward in Syria held a private military company known as "PMC Wagner."

    The publication «Fontanka.ru» has published an interview with the managers of the alleged PMC, in which he said: "Full fighters private military company does not advertise here. She's not in reference books and registers. Among devoted she is known as "PMC Wagner." Until recently, the main force of this formation took part in the armed conflict in the breakaway Luhansk People's Republic, now there is a relocation to Syria.

    "PMC Wagner" - one of the most secret units fighting in the LC and the DNI. Commanders and fighters never give interviews, photograph with Ukrainian trophies do not appear in social networks, they are not mentioned in the official release of the power of self-proclaimed republics.

    The core of the future "PMC Wagner" was formed in the same place where the men went today - on the territory of the Syrian Republic. In autumn 2013 Russian managers private military company Moran Security Group, Vadim Gusev and Yevgeny Sidorov, formed a band of 267 "contractors" for the "protection of deposits and pipelines" in a belligerent country.

    After a month of training camp under the protection of Latakia instead rigs "Slavic body" got involved in combat engagement with parts of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (LIH - banned organization in Russia), and after being wounded six of his fighters retreated. "

    According to Russian bloggers, the number of units of the Russian citizens who are fighting on the side of Assad, not more than two thousand people, which can not seriously affect the course of the ground operation.

    There a couple of things that are going against Syria(they are slowly over coming this), the SAA and it's allies cannot just use heavy artillery on cities and towns because there are civilians in those places and if they do start using heavy artillery, then the US will cry bloody murder, the SAA is not well organized and they don't have the latest weapons(this is slowing changing). The fact is that the SAA is facing some issues but they are slowing fixing them, the SAA has been fighting for 4 years against a lot of countries, so some fatigue is expected. Iran has lost 2 high ranking commanders in the last 2 weeks and they have thousands of soldiers in Syria, you cannot say that Iran's help is limited or that they are scared of US sanctions. The number of Russian Air Strikes will increase in the following weeks, months, the Latakia civilian airport, is now being upgraded for the Russian Air Force, so they can do more bomb raids. As for the Russian's PMC's in Syria, god bless and may god protect the soldiers.
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    Walther von Oldenburg

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:53 pm

    How long will the war last with Russian airstrikes? In Libya it took 8 months of non-stop bombing with 7000+ airstrikes and hundreds of cruise missiles fired just to bring down a 40,000 strong army that received almost no support from outside... and with thousands of airstrikes the total death toll of the Libyan army is estimated at max. 3200 dead.

    In Syria you have a force that numbers between 75,000-100,000 fighters that constantly receives new equipment and new men... since there is no shortage of fools willing to die for imaginary virgins in heaven, neither among Syrian Sunnis, nor outside of Syria. Rebel training camps shell out several thousand new recruits every month.
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  PapaDragon on Sun Oct 25, 2015 10:30 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How long will the war last with Russian airstrikes? In Libya it took 8 months of non-stop bombing with 7000+ airstrikes and hundreds of cruise missiles fired just to bring down a 40,000 strong army that received almost no support from outside... and with thousands of airstrikes the total death toll of the Libyan army is estimated at max. 3200 dead.

    In Syria you have a force that numbers between 75,000-100,000 fighters that constantly receives new equipment and new men... since there is no shortage of fools willing to die for imaginary virgins in heaven, neither among Syrian Sunnis, nor outside of Syria. Rebel training camps shell out several thousand new recruits every month.

    Easy, let VKS keep killing the virgin hunters from the air and you will get things done at some point.

    Lord knows there is no shortage of dumb-bombs from USSR to use out in the open and when idiots eventually hide in the cities just let SAA pick them off with artillery, snipers and whatnot...

    ultron

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  ultron on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:06 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How long will the war last with Russian airstrikes? In Libya it took 8 months of non-stop bombing with 7000+ airstrikes and hundreds of cruise missiles fired just to bring down a 40,000 strong army that received almost no support from outside... and with thousands of airstrikes the total death toll of the Libyan army is estimated at max. 3200 dead.

    In Syria you have a force that numbers between 75,000-100,000 fighters that constantly receives new equipment and new men... since there is no shortage of fools willing to die for imaginary virgins in heaven, neither among Syrian Sunnis, nor outside of Syria. Rebel training camps shell out several thousand new recruits every month.

    How long? I'm guessing several years before SAA can take a town like Salma or Kafr Nabodah or Rastan or Talbiseh. What SAA needs is close air support, and LOTS of it. Current number of Russian aircraft deployed is too few to make a difference on the ground.

    BTW, Tripoli was taken after 5 months. Chechen rebels were beaten within a few month. In Syria the fight will be decades.
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  PapaDragon on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:16 pm


    Anything that resembles Gagarin is instantly awesome in my book... lol1 russia

    Revival of Russia’s Military Might 'Sensation of the Year' in the West

    Bursts of Russian bombs in the Middle East have seemingly stricken ordinary Americans “explosive waves,” becoming a kind of psychological bomb in the West. There hasn’t been such a reaction towards Russia since the launch of Sputnik 1 and Yuri Gagarin flight to space, Russian columnist Vladimir Soloviev wrote.

    http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151026/1029098151/Revival-Russia-Military-Might-Sensation-West.html

    The time for discussion about bearded terrorists has irreversibly passed by – now everybody is talking about Russian pilots. And rather than watching propagandistic videos depicting ISIL’s black flags everybody now is fixing their eyes on clips featuring Russian airstrikes against terrorists’ positions in Syria. Public opinion is a volatile substance. And now it’s for new heroes. It’s the thing that was finally noticed in Washington.

    What is more is that unrest across the ocean was caused not only by the growing might of Russian arms and servicemen, but by the real efficiency of the Russian army.

    Ben Hodges, the commander of United States Army forces in Europe, has conjured up common fears that trouble people in the West, saying that he was shocked by Moscow’s ability to deploy their army in the Middle East region in a very short period of time. He was perplexed by this revelation, Soloviev notes.

    But if the military is always sparing in the expression of their emotions, the media is not, the publicist pointed out. For instance, an Italian journalist has issued an article entitled “Russians are too strong.” Putting it short, the author has claimed that “bursts of Russian bombs in Syria had hit ordinary Americans with blast waves,” referring to nervous response of launching of Russia’s operation among ordinary Americans. It’s a kind of “psychological bomb,” Soloviev stressed.

    At this point it suddenly appears that American soldiers are no longer a symbol of standoff with “joint powers of evil,” the author continued. And Russian troops have rapidly turned from potential aggressors to fighters against radicals and terrorists. No one uses “little green men” term (referring to Russian troops) to scare kids anymore, because all the kids are using them as a role model now, Soloviev believes.

    However, the loss of “stars-and-stripes prestige,” according to Soloviev, is not the worst thing of all. Americans are more alarmed not with the decreasing of their popularity itself, but with the fact that had overlooked this process. Washington has joined a game and lost it.

    “Americans were watching the Kremlin unwinkingly, while the principal tick was performed in the other place. What is more important is that the US has overlooked the resurrection of a superpower,” he concluded.


    ultron

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  ultron on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:19 pm

    What is needed is thousands of cruise missile strikes against fixed installations. Aircraft should only be used in the close support role and hunting convoys. Once those thousands of installations are taken out, thing will be slightly easier on the ground.
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    JohninMK

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  JohninMK on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:20 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How long will the war last with Russian airstrikes? In Libya it took 8 months of non-stop bombing with 7000+ airstrikes and hundreds of cruise missiles fired just to bring down a 40,000 strong army that received almost no support from outside... and with thousands of airstrikes the total death toll of the Libyan army is estimated at max. 3200 dead.

    In Syria you have a force that numbers between 75,000-100,000 fighters that constantly receives new equipment and new men... since there is no shortage of fools willing to die for imaginary virgins in heaven, neither among Syrian Sunnis, nor outside of Syria. Rebel training camps shell out several thousand new recruits every month.
    Syria is unlike Libya in many ways and, from the way the RuAF has been targeted, it would appear that the strategists in Moscow are well aware of the points you make.

    In a country wide, fragmented civil war like this they have recognised that command and control, communications are vital, hence the immediate, without warning destruction of many, perhaps most, of those facilities along with the key staff within them. Next up is logistics. There is probably not a lot that can be done about stocks already distributed across the fronts but if the soldiers can't get replacement food, ammunition and medical help, they are lost. Hence the immediate targeting of ammunition, fuel and probably food warehouses/dumps/bunkers before their contents can be spread around.

    That was phase one. The element of surprise is now gone, stores of all types will now be in small amounts all over the place, putting a control and transport effort onto the 'management' that wasn't expected. The big issue now will be resupply so the airstrikes will move onto hitting roads, trucks and convoys, both day and night. Tens of thousands of fighters need a huge amount of 'stuff', there is a fairly finite and reducing number of trucks and on top of it all winter is coming.

    There is a point that is very easy to miss. Look at the mix and number of aircraft deployed. The RuAF is not really there atm to destroy targets that help today's or even this week's fighting by the SAA ground forces. Complaining about the lack of CAS is missing the point. They are out there eliminating the 'activists' ability to fight next week and month. Ok they will hit some 'immediate' targets but they are the exception. Note how the number of videos put out by the MoD has dramatically reduced over the past few days. Having made the PR point with good publicity they are now getting on with fighting this war in 'private'.

    Also, given that the 'activists' were on a roll over wide areas of the country (the timing of the Russian move was no accident) it is not surprising that they are still making gains or recovering territory. Regardless of what we might think about their ethics they have proved to be an effective, almost traditional, light infantry fighting force. But in addition to large numbers of Iranians that are now arriving they have the fatal weakness that I described above, logistics. Whilst Turkey/Saudi can be expected to step up supplies as far as possible they will hit the 'how to move them' problem on Syrian roads. This is not a problem for the Government, thousands of tons of 'stuff' is arriving weekly by sea and air.

    Then, once the 'second front' is opened up with the RuAF active over eastern Syria and west/north Iraq the pincers will really be on.

    Also mentioned is the immediate arrival of MANPADs. I have little doubt that all participants have been told pretty forcibly by Moscow that more MANPADs are a 'red-line'. As I have said before, a Stinger heading into the sky could have been fired by anyone at a plane that could be anyone's. Just as Moscow does not want to be forced to operate its Su-25 at over 5000m neither does CENTCOM want to do the same with their A-10s. The problem is that MANPADs are a two edged sword and a para-supply dropping C-17 makes a big target.

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  ultron on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:27 pm

    What is for certain is that the war in Syria will go on for decades. These rebels pour in from Turkey where they control the border. Think of it like the Donbas scenario except now Assad = Poroshenko and rebels = Novorossiya.

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  ultron on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:32 pm

    Russian aircraft reportedly having problem with Syria's climate.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/10/25/russia-vladimir-putin-ash-carter-syria/74586002/
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    Walther von Oldenburg

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:35 pm

    ANother good example is Vietnam - the US conducted the largest air campaign in the history of mankind with hundreds of flights every day - and as long as the North enjoyed support from outside (PRC, USSR), the airstrikes did little except preventing NVA from seizing more territory.

    And there is of course Serbia -100+ combat flights per day for a month and the result? 60 pieces of equipment destroyed, including less than 20 tanks and tripling(!) of the number of Serbian troops in Kosovo after the start of the campaign(!!!)
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:41 pm

    I find it funny how you (Ultron) determins what they "need". Let me remind you, Yemen is giving Saudi Arabia hell with obselete equipment (Scuds overcoming advanced new PAC-3's or Saudi tanks and apc's going up in smoke). Syria doesnt "need" advanced equipment, but proper communications and capabilities to strike.

    This may come as a surprise to you and possibly others, but one doesnt need a state of the art Su-30SM or MiG-29M/M2 or 35 to drop bombs, guided or unguided. Syrian Su-24's, Su-22's and MiG-22's are easily just as capable so long as they have proper comm systems and made easier by a GPS/Glonass system. I seen an aftican jet using a separate gps device for crying out loud. Hell, it would be easily affordable to integtate SVP-24 to current Syrian jets. This stuff is nothing in costs. But these are only ideas. In its current form, they can do all support without such devices.

    It didnt help that a huge portion of Syrias population jumped ship to the terrorists due to being Sunni. Now Syria is fighting against more than half of its population in those regards. Bet there are many Sunnis who support Assad but afraid to do so. Regardless, Assads troops done quite well agaibst what they are facing. There are indeed problems with their tactics (driving tanks in the open towards a destroyed city filled with terrorists with ATGM capabilities) but they seem to carry more than enough equipment to do the job.

    Russias job isnt to go directly into the fight. Russias Job is to strike the terrorists training centers, logistics facilities and HQ's. Doing so has dine wonders and allows Syrian troops to do a lot better in taking areas as evident in recent jobs. Now Russia will keep this up till Syrian AF is more ready to do it.
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    Neutrality

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  Neutrality on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:44 pm

    ultron wrote:Russian aircraft reportedly having problem with Syria's climate.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/10/25/russia-vladimir-putin-ash-carter-syria/74586002/

    Blatant propaganda piece, WWII style. What "harsh" fucking conditions? "According to a defense official my ass. The Syrians are using 70s and 80s era MIGs and they don't seem to have those issues.

    SturmGuard

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

    Post  SturmGuard on Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:45 pm

    Let us all agree on preventing off-topic, ideological and other uninteresting "discussions" on specialized topics such as this one.

    Furthermore, please, please, pretty please, stop communicating with the either 1) dangerously deranged lunatic or 2) incredibly stupid troller. The person obviously suffers from 1) a lack of cognitive abilities and/or 2) real life work and duties, seeing the amount of posting he does on various sites.

    My bet is on number 2 (symbolic, isn't it, a number 2 he is). Observe how he repeatedly spammed informative and constructive threads on Ukraine previously, as he does with Syria nowadays, and the really obvious pushing of "Syrian" "rebels"=Novorussia, Assad=bad, SAA=losers, stupid, incompetent.

    People that have come for information, analysis, informed opinions or news suddenly found themselves wading through pages of repetitive mindless unrelated bovine excrement, where quality posting gets lost. It significantly decreases the quality of forum, maybe not for signed members, but this forum has a larger visitor base than signed in members.


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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

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