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    Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  PapaDragon on Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:56 am

    par far wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    medo wrote:
    par far wrote:Do you guys think that Russia will do air strikes inside Syria using Russian air force fighter jet?

    I doubt, if they send some pilots, they will fly Syrian Su-24M and MiG-29 planes. I think, they are expanding Latakia airport to provide more supplies through the air, or when Syria will fall, to evacuate as much Syrian soldiers as possible I think Syria will fall to ISIS and NATO next year and even Russian and Iranian help could not prevent it. Syrian army is running out of everything, specially troops and on the other side is a whole NATO and gulf monarchies. As Vanga said, Syria will fall at the feet of the winner, but this will not be the winner. After the fall of Syria, big war between east and west will start. Anyway, fall of Syria will bring destruction to Europe and this will start next year. Those refugees are not all refugees.

    Could we have situation where aircrafts (su-34), ground crews and command staff are Russian but pilots themselves are Syrian?



    Could be, are Syrian pilots trained on a aircraft like SU 34?

    Well, I'm just theorising, but there was plenty of time for training...
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    Solncepek

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Solncepek on Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:05 am

    zg18 wrote:Airport near Syrian city of Latakia being expanded as we speak




    Do you have a link to the original source ?
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Militarov on Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:51 am

    par far wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    medo wrote:
    par far wrote:Do you guys think that Russia will do air strikes inside Syria using Russian air force fighter jet?

    I doubt, if they send some pilots, they will fly Syrian Su-24M and MiG-29 planes. I think, they are expanding Latakia airport to provide more supplies through the air, or when Syria will fall, to evacuate as much Syrian soldiers as possible I think Syria will fall to ISIS and NATO next year and even Russian and Iranian help could not prevent it. Syrian army is running out of everything, specially troops and on the other side is a whole NATO and gulf monarchies. As Vanga said, Syria will fall at the feet of the winner, but this will not be the winner. After the fall of Syria, big war between east and west will start. Anyway, fall of Syria will bring destruction to Europe and this will start next year. Those refugees are not all refugees.

    Could we have situation where aircrafts (su-34), ground crews and command staff are Russian but pilots themselves are Syrian?



    Could be, are Syrian pilots trained on a aircraft like SU 34?

    Well they never operated SU27s either so the answer is no, however to switch from Mig29/Su24 to SU34 shouldnt be extremly hard (probably 120+ flying hours should be sufficient), however Syria doesnt have many Mig29/Su24 pilots either. So i belive if we ever see Russian T10 based platform in Syria it will be most likely flown by Russians.
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    zg18

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  zg18 on Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:45 am

    Solncepek wrote:Do you have a link to the original source ?

    https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/confirming-russias-expanded-presence-syria
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    Max Italy

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Max Italy on Fri Sep 11, 2015 3:15 pm

    again, I don't trust "Debka" as they often spread misinformation...
    http://www.debka.com/article/24883/First-Iranian-marines-land-in-Syria-link-up-with-newly-arrived-Russian-troops

    but this article let us imagine an hypothesis that sound reasonable: what Assad needs most of all right now is not airstrikes but manpower and only IRAN can now provide "boots on the ground". Shiites volunteers or regular forces. But they need fresh weapons and logistic.
    So maybe Russians are now only "preparing" the field for Iranian forces to come.

    What do you think about this hypothesis? unshaven
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    Solncepek

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Solncepek on Fri Sep 11, 2015 3:29 pm

    It's a public secret, that Russia and Iran have a mutual protection pact with Syria.
    Now the situation will worsen for Israel also.
    We will be lucky if we're able to escape WWIII...Sad
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    KoTeMoRe

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:00 pm

    Max Italy wrote:again, I don't trust "Debka" as they often spread misinformation...
    http://www.debka.com/article/24883/First-Iranian-marines-land-in-Syria-link-up-with-newly-arrived-Russian-troops

    but this article let us imagine an hypothesis that sound reasonable: what Assad needs most of all right now is not airstrikes but manpower and only IRAN can now provide "boots on the ground". Shiites volunteers or regular forces. But they need fresh weapons and logistic.
    So maybe Russians are now only "preparing" the field for Iranian forces to come.

    What do you think about this hypothesis? unshaven

    Iranians on the ground and Russians in the Sky? That looks like SCO in action to me. Syria befalls exactly in the modus operandi and doctrine of SCO. If Uncle Mao's people could bankroll the operation for sweet sweet Iranian oil we have trifecta.
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    JohninMK

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  JohninMK on Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:31 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Max Italy wrote:again, I don't trust "Debka" as they often spread misinformation...
    http://www.debka.com/article/24883/First-Iranian-marines-land-in-Syria-link-up-with-newly-arrived-Russian-troops

    but this article let us imagine an hypothesis that sound reasonable: what Assad needs most of all right now is not airstrikes but manpower and only IRAN can now provide "boots on the ground". Shiites volunteers or regular forces. But they need fresh weapons and logistic.
    So maybe Russians are now only "preparing" the field for Iranian forces to come.

    What do you think about this hypothesis? unshaven

    Iranians on the ground and Russians in the Sky? That looks like SCO in action to me. Syria befalls exactly in the modus operandi and doctrine of SCO. If Uncle Mao's people could bankroll the operation for sweet sweet Iranian oil we have trifecta.
    Russia shipping in trucks/BMP/tanks etc by sea is probably a lot easier than Iran trying to get them in.

    So, if this report is correct it might be that Iran drives into Syria from the East whilst it flies in and picks up transport when it gets there in the West.
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    Solncepek

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Solncepek on Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:44 pm

    KoTeMoRe wrote:That looks like SCO in action to me.

    Iran is not a member of SCO.
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  PapaDragon on Fri Sep 11, 2015 5:49 pm

    Solncepek wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:That looks like SCO in action to me.

    Iran is not a member of SCO.

    Dude, introduce yourself on new members forum, it's a tradition...
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    magnumcromagnon

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Fri Sep 11, 2015 7:23 pm

    Solncepek wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:That looks like SCO in action to me.

    Iran is not a member of SCO.

    They're a defacto member.
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    Werewolf

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Werewolf on Fri Sep 11, 2015 8:39 pm

    If western controlled MSM are reporting on something repeatadley you can be dead certain they want you to missinform or take a specific perception before any actual evidence is on the screen.
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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Militarov on Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:38 pm

    Certain Twitter hub (pro Russian) posted tweeted this some minutes ago "#Iraq allows #Russia to use its airspace to carry logistic support to #Syria ", however i did not find any confirmation of this by searching Google in English, Russian or Serbian, and i share this only coz this guy (guys?) was mostly on spot with his info.

    Link to the tweet: https://twitter.com/coldwar20_en/status/642419114707828736

    If anyone finds some kind of confirmation in Arabic, Russian, Ukrainian etc gief us Smile
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    Max Italy

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Max Italy on Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:38 pm

    Werewolf wrote:If western controlled MSM are reporting on something repeatadley you can be dead certain they want you to missinform or take a specific perception before any actual evidence is on the screen.

    I agree....

    So let's think about it...what italian and european mass media are repeating over and over is "Russia is going to be militarly involved in Syria's scenario....Russian troops are going to be involved..."
    ....and nobody talks about IRAN engagement in this scenario (only Debka ...but Debka is not "mass" media...)

    So maybe they don't tell us the truth, maybe IRAN is going to be deeply involved...and Russia is only opening yhe way...thumbsup

    Anyway, I don't have proofs...it's only an hypothesis dunno
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    KoTeMoRe

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  KoTeMoRe on Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:41 pm

    Solncepek wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:That looks like SCO in action to me.

    Iran is not a member of SCO.

    Observing member of the SCO. Aka Sugar Punch member.
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    Max Italy

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Max Italy on Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:53 pm

    let me post some news from a well balanced and reliable site, hope you'll find it interesting.

    http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-marines-begin-large-scale-military-exercises-inside-syria/

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    Militarov

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Militarov on Fri Sep 11, 2015 11:13 pm

    "82040 доложил : ВХОД В ЗОНУ ИРАК ЗАПРЕЩЁН. Теперь и Ирак встал на дыбы. / Борт разворачивается на Моздок."

    "'Russian #Airforce An-124 reports Iraq airspace is prohibited, aircraft returns to Mozdok in Russia'"




    Apparently An124 reached Bagdad airspace and then turned back to Mozdok, everything was tracked by aviation enthusiasts on Flightradar24.com they are not sure if reason was bad weather or Iraqi flight control.

    "82040 идёт под номером рейса RFF8052 , а обратно под номером RFF8053 | Возможно ,Ирак что-то попутал . Надо получше попросить."

    "82040 , похоже , прибудет в Моздок в 01:30 мск . Керосина хватит."

    Hopefully someone with better Russian than mine could translate this for us, my translation would be quite crude. Sorry for posting in raw Russian.

    Source: http://milavia.blogspot.rs and https://twitter.com/Alexfly35?lang=en

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    JohninMK

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  JohninMK on Sat Sep 12, 2015 1:22 am

    Here is much more on the Russia Syria air bridge. There is a lot of stuff going in by the look of it.

    http://theaviationist.com/2015/09/11/ads-b-exposes-russian-air-bridge-to-syria/
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    Solncepek

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Solncepek on Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:08 am

    Iraq won't prohibit its airspace for Russian flights.
    Without Iranian support they are doomed in front of ISIL.
    The both countries now are hot-linked and Iran's wishes are Iraq's obeys.

    Don't trust anyone , who tell you, that Iraq's airspace is prohibited for Russian planes...!
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    Max Italy

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  Max Italy on Sat Sep 12, 2015 3:42 pm

    Cyprus alerted to divert passing aircraft for Russian exercise off Syria
    DEBKAfile September 12, 2015, 1:40 PM (IDT)
    Russia has issued an alert for Cyprus to divert aircraft from normal flight paths during the military exercises, including missile fire, to be conducted off the Syrian coast next week. Russia is also reported in Moscow to have sent NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen) to the US Federal Aviation Administration about the Russian Navy exercise, including “rocket test firings” between the Syrian port of Tartus and Cyprus, about 100 kilometers away.


    any idea about the meaning of these "exercises"? only flexing muscles? Cool

    par far

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  par far on Sat Sep 12, 2015 4:00 pm

    Max Italy wrote:Cyprus alerted to divert passing aircraft for Russian exercise off Syria
    DEBKAfile September 12, 2015, 1:40 PM (IDT)
    Russia has issued an alert for Cyprus to divert aircraft from normal flight paths during the military exercises, including missile fire, to be conducted off the Syrian coast next week. Russia is also reported in Moscow to have sent NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen) to the US Federal Aviation Administration about the Russian Navy exercise, including “rocket test firings” between the Syrian port of Tartus and Cyprus, about 100 kilometers away.


    any idea about the meaning of these "exercises"? only flexing muscles? Cool


    This is kind of dangerous.

    par far

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  par far on Sat Sep 12, 2015 4:03 pm

    Solncepek wrote:Iraq won't prohibit its airspace for Russian flights.
    Without Iranian support they are doomed in front of ISIL.
    The both countries now are hot-linked and Iran's wishes are Iraq's  obeys.

    Don't trust anyone , who tell you, that Iraq's airspace is prohibited for Russian planes...!


    Don't know how true this is.


    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/21025-iraq-to-allow-russia-to-use-its-airspace-for-aid-to-syria


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    JohninMK

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  JohninMK on Sat Sep 12, 2015 5:58 pm

    par far wrote:
    Max Italy wrote:Cyprus alerted to divert passing aircraft for Russian exercise off Syria
    DEBKAfile September 12, 2015, 1:40 PM (IDT)
    Russia has issued an alert for Cyprus to divert aircraft from normal flight paths during the military exercises, including missile fire, to be conducted off the Syrian coast next week. Russia is also reported in Moscow to have sent NOTAMs (Notice to Airmen) to the US Federal Aviation Administration about the Russian Navy exercise, including “rocket test firings” between the Syrian port of Tartus and Cyprus, about 100 kilometers away.


    any idea about the meaning of these "exercises"? only flexing muscles? Cool


    This is kind of dangerous.
    Not necessarily. The US and NATO do this on and off all over the world as they conduct exercises. It is standard practice.

    It would be really interesting if Syria were to issue a NOTAM over its territory.

    However, this being a DEBKA release could be fiction.
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    sepheronx

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  sepheronx on Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:06 pm

    medo wrote:
    par far wrote:Do you guys think that Russia will do air strikes inside Syria using Russian air force fighter jet?

    I doubt, if they send some pilots, they will fly Syrian Su-24M and MiG-29 planes. I think, they are expanding Latakia airport to provide more supplies through the air, or when Syria will fall, to evacuate as much Syrian soldiers as possible I think Syria will fall to ISIS and NATO next year and even Russian and Iranian help could not prevent it. Syrian army is running out of everything, specially troops and on the other side is a whole NATO and gulf monarchies. As Vanga said, Syria will fall at the feet of the winner, but this will not be the winner. After the fall of Syria, big war between east and west will start. Anyway, fall of Syria will bring destruction to Europe and this will start next year. Those refugees are not all refugees.

    Do you have exact numbers? Last I checked, Assad still controls 1/3 of the country and has all access to the med. You cannot block the Bosphorus due to agreements and if Turkey decides to break those agreements, expect a shitstorm you wouldn't believe.

    I have a different theory. My theory is that Russia will help Assad build a new Syria, separate from the other Syria. A Syria where he still controls and has power. That Syria would eventually grow with the number of secular people moving there. But all in all, he isn't running out of weapons as Russia and Iran have both been sending weapons. Hezbollah fighters are still in Syria fighting as well. I suspect their numbers are still quite high.
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    medo

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    Re: Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #1

    Post  medo on Sat Sep 12, 2015 8:40 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    medo wrote:
    par far wrote:Do you guys think that Russia will do air strikes inside Syria using Russian air force fighter jet?

    I doubt, if they send some pilots, they will fly Syrian Su-24M and MiG-29 planes. I think, they are expanding Latakia airport to provide more supplies through the air, or when Syria will fall, to evacuate as much Syrian soldiers as possible I think Syria will fall to ISIS and NATO next year and even Russian and Iranian help could not prevent it. Syrian army is running out of everything, specially troops and on the other side is a whole NATO and gulf monarchies. As Vanga said, Syria will fall at the feet of the winner, but this will not be the winner. After the fall of Syria, big war between east and west will start. Anyway, fall of Syria will bring destruction to Europe and this will start next year. Those refugees are not all refugees.

    Do you have exact numbers?  Last I checked, Assad still controls 1/3 of the country and has all access to the med.  You cannot block the Bosphorus due to agreements and if Turkey decides to break those agreements, expect a shitstorm you wouldn't believe.

    I have a different theory.  My theory is that Russia will help Assad build a new Syria, separate from the other Syria.  A Syria where he still controls and has power.  That Syria would eventually grow with the number of secular people moving there.  But all in all, he isn't running out of weapons as Russia and Iran have both been sending weapons.  Hezbollah fighters are still in Syria fighting as well.  I suspect their numbers are still quite high.

    Few months ago Assad himself said, that Syrian army already lost half of its soldiers and they control less and less territory, where they could mobilize more reserves. Even if Turkey will not close Bosphor, NATO could install naval blockade, that russian ships could not enter to Syrian port. NATO also control Iraqi air space under the disguise of attacks on ISIS. US decided to stop russian help to Syria and they could do this, because all neighbor states are US allies and many are NATO members on the route. Against Syria is not only ISIS, but whole NATO. Syria simply doesn't have resources to last for another year. Hezbollah is too small and will not be enough, Russia and Iran are too far away and have no border contact with Syria, what means ISIS on the ground and NATO in the air could prevent their supplies through Iraq.

    This is difficult to say, but Syria will fall in coming months. They fight bravely for four years for their country and supplies comming to the last day possible only show, that Iran and Russia didn't turn their backs to Syria and betray them. Syria is encircled by the enemies and Assad will soon have to leave Syria or he will face the same destiny as Gadafi. Syrian army will have to leave Damask as soon as possible and move to Latakia, that they will not bu cut from Mediteranean coast. From there Russian and maybe even Chinese ships could evacuate remains of Syrian army, which will be later able to return to Syria. Question now is only, how much of Syrian army could be saved for war after the fall of Syria.

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