Honestly, the lack of footage coming out of Syria has been a real goddamn pain. Many discussions all around are starting to believe the American claims.
For example, People are now claiming that all those explosions the air were just the intercept missiles self-destructing, because they were either shooting at nothing or missed. Can't confirm a thing without the damn FLIR footage.
Even the lack of wreckage footage on this very site is annoying.
While everyone has been ranting about missiles some actually relevant things happened:
An agreement has been reached between the Syrian Arab Army and the entire armed factions in the eastern Qalamoun in the Syrian countryside, which will be transferred to the Syrian north in the coming days.
PapaDragon wrote: While everyone has been ranting about missiles some actually relevant things happened:
An agreement has been reached between the Syrian Arab Army and the entire armed factions in the eastern Qalamoun in the Syrian countryside, which will be transferred to the Syrian north in the coming days.
That's the best thing they could and should do. Bashar has won since rusian decided to help him. Fighting against him is useless. They should all get agreements with him to stop the war they can't win instead of fighting for US for nothing just destabilizing their own country. They will survive and the bombs will stop too so no more civilian dead.
Russia + some UN observators should be a guarantee that Assad don't kill them once war is finish.
Same for kurds. They should hurry up to find an agreement with Assad because if US leaves which they will do because there is nothing intersting left to do for them, they will be destroyed by Turcs. Even if they were somehow successfull against them in the past, a real confrontation isn't something they could deal with.
AlfaT8 wrote:Honestly, the lack of footage coming out of Syria has been a real goddamn pain. Many discussions all around are starting to believe the American claims.
For example, People are now claiming that all those explosions the air were just the intercept missiles self-destructing, because they were either shooting at nothing or missed. Can't confirm a thing without the damn FLIR footage.
Even the lack of wreckage footage on this very site is annoying.
Either it is or it isn't. Both sides are never going to reveal all their secrets.
This lady is an editor for Aviation Week. This is the 370km range version, hence the EA-6B escort for the B-1.
Lara Seligman Verified account @laraseligman
So remember how the Pentagon said the April 14 strikes on Syria marked the first combat use of JASSM-ER? Now an @USAFCENT spokesman says that information was incorrect - they were JASSM-A, the standard, non-ER version.
PapaDragon wrote: While everyone has been ranting about missiles some actually relevant things happened:
An agreement has been reached between the Syrian Arab Army and the entire armed factions in the eastern Qalamoun in the Syrian countryside, which will be transferred to the Syrian north in the coming days.
That's the best thing they could and should do. Bashar has won since rusian decided to help him. Fighting against him is useless. They should all get agreements with him to stop the war they can't win instead of fighting for US for nothing just destabilizing their own country. They will survive and the bombs will stop too so no more civilian dead.
Russia + some UN observators should be a guarantee that Assad don't kill them once war is finish.
Same for kurds. They should hurry up to find an agreement with Assad because if US leaves which they will do because there is nothing intersting left to do for them, they will be destroyed by Turcs. Even if they were somehow successfull against them in the past, a real confrontation isn't something they could deal with.
Assad want them gone from Syria, to Idlib and then trough Turkey to Europe. There they will asimiliate, kind of. Small number of them will decided to come back in future uprisings. If not, there will be another war in 50 years, this generation of "rebels" now are the kids of generation that supported uprising ih Homs in 1982. So Assad sure as hell doesn't want tens of thousands of ex rebels raising next generations of enemies in Damascus, Homs, Hama...
That is the brutal reality of war in Syria. Never again people from Damascus will be the same as people from Douma, They will alwas know who they support, they will all pretend that they are living in harmony. But as soon as first shots are fired in some future "uprising" they will turn rifles on each other. To settle the scores of their fathers. So Assad is doing next things, transporting all "problematic" population, together with all rebels to the north, they are all abroad or in great prison called Idlib. One by one pockets around Damascus were cleared, in every pocket there were around 60/40% support for Assad/Rebels. Those who supported rebels choose to evacuate to Idlib. Since 2015 SAA transported around 40.000 rebels from all pockets around Damascus(20.000 from Douma). And at least 100.000 civilians(70.000) from Douma. It also shows that even tho there were massive amount of rebels in douma for example, only around 1000 of them were ready to fight. It is also noticeable that poor parts of country revolted the most, and that rural areas, especially Idlib are places where most of radical islamists came from. Aleppo is wictom of influh of this radical elements from rural areas to east Aleppo witch also were poor part of Aleppo compered to west. Assad cleared that area to, and massive amout of civilians stayed, but around 20/30k of them left to Idlib with rebels. That is a small number for city of 1.000.000 people, but those people turned life to hell for rest of the city for 5 years. One of solutions of this problem is to invest in poor areas, development will stop radicalisation, but when war is over primary focus of rebuilding funds will be on areas that have supports Assad and suffered material damage. It is highl possible that areas where rebels were around Damascus will be leveled to the ground and in future Syria will build new upper class homes, to strengten the base or should a say defence around capital for future.
This plan is already visible in some areas around Damascus and Homs. south of center damascus one neighbourhoud is levelded to the ground after fihgting ended there years ago. And new project started to build upper clas neighbourhod, to replace poor one that used to be there before war. People who lived there are not coming back.
Take a look at this place All around are high rised building, and "developed" areas- http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.498783&lon=36.261234&z=15&m=h&gz=0;362470722;334901040;0;1789;68235;93766;189256;153170;242900;141003;239896;73367;262212;72651;256633;13600
All this is to be leveled and new neighbourhood to be built.
Just south of that are Darayya and Moramayya. That is to be leveled to the ground because it is almost all destroyed. But not to be reaconstructed any time soon. If we take a look at all areas that were opposition stronghold around Damascus, they are all poorer areas. Like that one i posted up. Overall around Syria, there is not a single city that were dominantly against Assad. I am talking abouth largest cities. Raqqa fall because of position, Hasak and Kamishli becouse of large Kurdish population around and in them, and because they are far away from main populated areas of Syria that SAA had to focus on, but SAA stil have a presence there.Only areas that are more than 50% against Assad is Idlib, Daraa and Euphrates river valley, with all other rural areas around big cities. Assad manage to clear all those areas from opposition, some of them fled some of them are in Idlib. Reconciliation is good, but most of those rebels are in the books, and crimes will not go unpunished. So they choose Idlib and germany after all. Evacuation deals are brilliant tactic from SAA perspective, they saved a lots of lives and cleared hostile areas from hostile population.
well well...hehehe........sounds like quiet a few of these tomahawks/ Scalp/ Storm were duds! Assad handed over these crashed/ unexploded ones to the Russian military:
Just blindly copying their system is not wise . It is like a Rhino trying to grow fangs to fight a Lion . Their products are a result of an over funded military industrial complex , with it's numerous factories and installations in US immune from any attack . We have to adapt their technology to suit our own needs . A cheaper and simplified system that will come under air attack .
The heat is now gone . Their iron is no longer hot . The strike is over for now . And until they decide what to do next , there is a window of opportunity to strike at Usraeli targets . To do nothing is not an option , and neither is striking usraeli soil from Iranian soil directly .
The best option is to strike in a proportional manner . That does not pose an existential threat . And yet has deference value . My choice is an Iranian SSBM , attack launched from Syrian soil , into occupied Golan .
Last edited by nomadski on Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:09 am; edited 1 time in total
Nomadski the issue with Iran's retaliation trips around the notion of escalation to nuclear weapon use threshold!
If Iran unleashes a 100k conventional rockets at Israel, then Israel will most likely respond with tactical nukes.
Unfortunately that's where the buck stops.
Retaliating with tow missile like itty bitty things is going to be the most likely response from Iran, which will no doubt kill a handful of eastern european jewish conscripts......but that will be the end of this T-4 revenge drama.
Iran has to win this Syrian war, that is far more important!
nomadski wrote: My choice is an Iranian SSBM , attack launched from Syrian soil , into occupied Golan .
Na, way too risky, especially with the focus still on beating the rebels. It would've been dangerous enough back in 2010 when Syria was still a decent state actor actor. Now it's ridiculous, and Israel would love a pretext to smash the SAA and Iran while they're still weak. They'll just have to grit their teeth and take it--or ask Russia to ward off Israel--until they've finally wrapped up the civil war, imported more weapons (after sanctions) and beefed up the power of both nations. Unfortunately that could take quite a few more years....
First Iran has to take ownership of any retaliation . Openly and proudly . Because it is a legal action . And it is proportional . And it is in self defence .
Second it must show the technological power of Iran . Since it is to be a detterent . Showing that their defences are vulnerable . A knife attack in Tel Aviv , killing civilians is no good .
Third , many of those Iranian missiles are collecting dust . They soon have to be fired in tests anyway . But if not then an attack by manpads against border guard in Golan is acceptable .
Fourth , we can not stop retaliation , because they will escalate to nuke . So what . So shall we . For this reason we can wait until after 12 May . Trump will tear up the deal . And we can kill two birds with one nuclear stone .
Fifth , even if usraelis launch ground operation into Golan . I doubt they will make much advances . Going by their last performance against Hezb forces . And it will unify many Sunni Syrian with Shia against fight with zionists .
Sixth, winning war in Syria , is winning war against sectarians and yank imperialists and wahabite and zionists . We have to defend against all and attack all . Smaller stones have been ground Iinto dust . Now the big boulders collide .
Last edited by nomadski on Fri Apr 20, 2018 9:36 am; edited 1 time in total
lulldapull wrote:If Iran unleashes a 100k conventional rockets at Israel, then Israel will most likely respond with tactical nukes.
They wouldn't necessarily go that far, but the Israeli response would still be disproportionate and devastating.
Retaliating with tow missile like itty bitty things is going to be the most likely response from Iran, which will no doubt kill a handful of eastern european jewish conscripts......but that will be the end of this T-4 revenge drama.
Any retaliation could be too dangerous now. Maybe they could resort to some terror operation in which their responsibility is unclear.
Iran has to win this Syrian war, that is far more important!
Right that's the priority now. But even if it can be concluded fairly soon, Syria and Iran have a long way to go before they can contemplate a confrontation with Israel.
nomadski wrote: But if not then an attack by manpads against border guard in Golan is acceptable .
Na the Israelis have a big edge; their response would be disproportionate and might even degrade SAA/Iranian capabilities to the point where they lose their edge in the civil war...
Fourth , we can not stop retaliation , because they will escalate to nuke . So what . So shall we . For this reason we can wait until after 12 May . Trump will tear up the deal . And we can kill two birds with one nuclear stone .
Unfortunately Iran will need time to build one Bomb whereas Israel already has 100 or more....
Fifth , even if usraelis launch ground operation into Golan . I doubt they will make much advances . Going by their last performance against Hezb forces
I wish I could share that optimism. But the sad reality is that the Syrian regime forces are in no shape to deal with Israel. It's hard enough to overcome rebels.
And it will unify many Sunni Syrian with Shia against fight with zionists .
Here you may have a point. I suggest though, that Syria use the fight against zionism to help reunify the country after the rebels are beaten.
The yanks kept out of Arab -Usraeli conflicts . At least directly . But zionists wanted to bring yanks in where they could . Will yanks leave Syria , because we ask them nicely ? This last attack was a statement of intent . They will fight for Syrian oil and territory . Will have to fight them . Will zionists keep out ? Not if they are in any shape to contribute .
So what is best ? To stop them from joining in an attack on Lebanon and Syria , while Syria is busy fighting SDF and Yank in the east ? When our forces are dispersed . Or deter them now and solidify defences in Golan and Lebanon . And keeping them out before attacking east ?
I think a step at a time . Time for first step . Before we face NAZTO .
My take on this revenge issue is that if Iran responds forcefully, which it no doubt can, then it better send its half a million soldiers all the way up to golan, along with its entire IRIAF deployed at forward SyAF bases along with its entire AD units and ballistic missiles too, and essentially take the fight right upto Israel's door step.
However, this is highly unlikely! It will never happen, a full scale war between the two. Israeli nukes ensure this! Iran must go nuclear or else be condemned to play second fiddle.
Once Trump abrogates the JCPOA, Iran must declare nuclear threshold capability and test a nuke immediately. Being the situation Iran finds itself in, a nuke capability has become essential. There is no other way out for Iran.
Iran is a Shia Theocracy and the Grand ayatollah has issued a BINDING fatwa against nuclear weapons. They say they are "offensive to god"....
Iran isn't going to develop nukes, period. That said, they are steadily progressing towards becoming a member of the SCO, and a spot within the developing Eurasian integration powerhouse is more valuable than 100 nukes. Dirty stinking Zio-land and its seditious shekel-grubbers won't commit an act of nuclear genocide out of overwhelming fear of the consequences.
The Chosenites can indulge in missile strikes, but they are nothing but pin pricks, merely flea-bites. They act to galvanise Iranian resolve and hatred of the hook-nosed enemy, and without troops and tanks on the ground in Syria, the Chosenite efforts will FAIL. Their self-declared "security zone" manned by their Wahhabi terror gang proxies around Daraa will be rolled back and Damascus will project its sovereignty back to the borders with stolen Golan. Israel cannot openly attack Syria with ground forces while Russia remains, and Putin ain't about to call his boys home, nor pack up the bases at Khmeimim or Tartus. Damsacus and Tehran will complete the purge of the regime-changers, and the Chosenites can sit and watch and fester with impotent rage...
Today they had a security meeting between Russia/ Syria/ Iran/ Iraq. A new alliance has emerged between the 4 countries. Is this officially a new forum/ grouping alliance?
PapaDragon wrote: While everyone has been ranting about missiles some actually relevant things happened:
An agreement has been reached between the Syrian Arab Army and the entire armed factions in the eastern Qalamoun in the Syrian countryside, which will be transferred to the Syrian north in the coming days.
That's the best thing they could and should do. Bashar has won since rusian decided to help him. Fighting against him is useless. They should all get agreements with him to stop the war they can't win instead of fighting for US for nothing just destabilizing their own country. They will survive and the bombs will stop too so no more civilian dead.
Russia + some UN observators should be a guarantee that Assad don't kill them once war is finish.
Same for kurds. They should hurry up to find an agreement with Assad because if US leaves which they will do because there is nothing intersting left to do for them, they will be destroyed by Turcs. Even if they were somehow successfull against them in the past, a real confrontation isn't something they could deal with.
Assad want them gone from Syria, to Idlib and then trough Turkey to Europe. There they will asimiliate, kind of. Small number of them will decided to come back in future uprisings. If not, there will be another war in 50 years, this generation of "rebels" now are the kids of generation that supported uprising ih Homs in 1982. So Assad sure as hell doesn't want tens of thousands of ex rebels raising next generations of enemies in Damascus, Homs, Hama...
That is the brutal reality of war in Syria. Never again people from Damascus will be the same as people from Douma, They will alwas know who they support, they will all pretend that they are living in harmony. But as soon as first shots are fired in some future "uprising" they will turn rifles on each other. To settle the scores of their fathers. So Assad is doing next things, transporting all "problematic" population, together with all rebels to the north, they are all abroad or in great prison called Idlib. One by one pockets around Damascus were cleared, in every pocket there were around 60/40% support for Assad/Rebels. Those who supported rebels choose to evacuate to Idlib. Since 2015 SAA transported around 40.000 rebels from all pockets around Damascus(20.000 from Douma). And at least 100.000 civilians(70.000) from Douma. It also shows that even tho there were massive amount of rebels in douma for example, only around 1000 of them were ready to fight. It is also noticeable that poor parts of country revolted the most, and that rural areas, especially Idlib are places where most of radical islamists came from. Aleppo is wictom of influh of this radical elements from rural areas to east Aleppo witch also were poor part of Aleppo compered to west. Assad cleared that area to, and massive amout of civilians stayed, but around 20/30k of them left to Idlib with rebels. That is a small number for city of 1.000.000 people, but those people turned life to hell for rest of the city for 5 years. One of solutions of this problem is to invest in poor areas, development will stop radicalisation, but when war is over primary focus of rebuilding funds will be on areas that have supports Assad and suffered material damage. It is highl possible that areas where rebels were around Damascus will be leveled to the ground and in future Syria will build new upper class homes, to strengten the base or should a say defence around capital for future.
This plan is already visible in some areas around Damascus and Homs. south of center damascus one neighbourhoud is levelded to the ground after fihgting ended there years ago. And new project started to build upper clas neighbourhod, to replace poor one that used to be there before war. People who lived there are not coming back.
Take a look at this place All around are high rised building, and "developed" areas- http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=33.498783&lon=36.261234&z=15&m=h&gz=0;362470722;334901040;0;1789;68235;93766;189256;153170;242900;141003;239896;73367;262212;72651;256633;13600
All this is to be leveled and new neighbourhood to be built.
Just south of that are Darayya and Moramayya. That is to be leveled to the ground because it is almost all destroyed. But not to be reaconstructed any time soon. If we take a look at all areas that were opposition stronghold around Damascus, they are all poorer areas. Like that one i posted up. Overall around Syria, there is not a single city that were dominantly against Assad. I am talking abouth largest cities. Raqqa fall because of position, Hasak and Kamishli becouse of large Kurdish population around and in them, and because they are far away from main populated areas of Syria that SAA had to focus on, but SAA stil have a presence there.Only areas that are more than 50% against Assad is Idlib, Daraa and Euphrates river valley, with all other rural areas around big cities. Assad manage to clear all those areas from opposition, some of them fled some of them are in Idlib. Reconciliation is good, but most of those rebels are in the books, and crimes will not go unpunished. So they choose Idlib and germany after all. Evacuation deals are brilliant tactic from SAA perspective, they saved a lots of lives and cleared hostile areas from hostile population.
Please do not send these bastards to Europe, they are already in lots of trouble.
"lulldapull"..........My take on this revenge issue is that if Iran responds forcefully, which it no doubt can, then it better send its half a million soldiers all the way up to golan, along with its entire IRIAF deployed at forward SyAF bases along with its entire AD units and ballistic missiles too, and essentially take the fight right upto Israel's door step.
However, this is highly unlikely! It will never happen, a full scale war between the two. Israeli nukes ensure this! Iran must go nuclear or else be condemned to play second fiddle.
Once Trump abrogates the JCPOA, Iran must declare nuclear threshold capability and test a nuke immediately. Being the situation Iran finds itself in, a nuke capability has become essential. There is no other way out for Iran..........."
I will take each point you made in turn . First half a million troops.......will not be needed . A few divisions together with Hezb fighters and Syrian troops to halt advancing tanks . Second entire IRIAF not needed in forward bases . Just sufficient AD , to ensure ground operation not disrupted . And stop paratroopers being deployed . Ballistic missiles hitting a few border posts have advantage of being deep inside Syrian territory . Manpads are in forward bases and more vulnerable . BM's better work ! In all usraeli wars , no nukes were used . Using nukes is not easy . Threatening is easy . But the zionists must find out , we are not defenceless Palestinians , they torture and use for target practice . Last point about screwing the warheads back on , yes wait until Trump dumps the deal .
Anna news report of some American cruise missiles that did not explode.. by "mysterious reasons".. this should clarify the trolls claiming there is "no evidence" of failure of American or European missiles..
Ignore the stupid music.. the original video have to be somewhere in Anna news channel.. but not going to search for it.
One AGM-158 JASSM missile that did not explode and the engine was fried for "unknown reasons" ..
Perhaps the missile got an electrified wlecome by Russia EW defenses? The missile was delivered to Russia military for study and reverse engineering, if there is a need for it.
Last edited by Vann7 on Fri Apr 20, 2018 4:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
Anna news report of some American cruise missiles that did not explode.. by "mysterious reasons".. this should clarify the trolls claiming there is "no evidence" of failure of American or European missiles..
Ignore the stupid music.. the original video have to be somewhere in Anna news channel.. but not going to search for it.
One AGM-158 JASSM missile that did not explode and the engine was fried for "unknown reasons" ..
Perhaps electronic attack ?
This is a video of the first attack on the airbase.
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I wish I could share that optimism. But the sad reality is that the Syrian regime forces are in no shape to deal with Israel. It's hard enough to overcome rebels.
