Syrian War: News #17

Vladimir79 wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:

The Kurds lost. They have no way to mount a sustained and effective "guerrilla campaign" - they're not the vietcong (they wish). Not to mention the main forces on the ground are not Turks but Syrian Turkish proxies - aka expendables. If things were to really get ugly for the FSA (and Turkey); there is always Assad waiting in the wings to cleanse the place from terrorists on a backroom deal between Russia and Turkey.

Bottomline, the Kurds are not getting Afrin back and their little games with "sleeper cells" etc are insignificant. Mounting an actual defense of the city would have been more bloody and costly for Turkey and the FSA. So the idea that somehow this 4D-chess "guerrilla campaign" is gonna change anything.... it's laughable and mainly propaganda for self-consumption since they just got royally raped (gotta keep the sheep believing while the puppet masters flee). You do have a point that Turkey can not wage a sustained confrontation with the U.S, simply due to the fact that its economy will get drowned (and Europe will happily help). Given the circumstances the Turks have played their cards well. Rapprochement between Turkey and the U.S should always be expected. It's realpolitik.

Turkeys domestic problems are bleeding into its economy.  12,000 millionaires have fled in the last two years, 50,000 academics have taken their PhDs to Europe and elsewhere creating a brain drain.  Public discontent in Europe for Turkey is at an all time high and any further actions as Manjib or Iraq will bring economic consequences.  Erdogan is trying to distract the public with debt fueled growth numbers and talks of reestablishing the Ottoman empire while the economic base is fleeing the country.    

In a place like Afrin or North Iraq the terrain is like Afghanistan, it is very difficult to stop an insurgency and with the growth of Kurdish outcry from even Turkish areas it could turn into the rally cry the Kurds have been waiting for.  It made no strategic sense to take Afrin and now it could be the final nail that breaks the camels back.  Just because the US isn't helping them doesn't mean a country like Israel or France won't.  

I did not believe what you said Vladimir79, than I researched and it is true. My god the Muslims will destroy the western civilization.

This is from from June of 2017.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-14/best-and-brightest-turks-go-west-as-erdogan-s-purge-shows-no-end


I think because the educated Turks are leaving Turkey, Turkey is hoarding the well educated Syrians.

https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-prevent-well-educated-syrian-refugees-from-leaving-migration/

Vladimir79 wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:

The Kurds lost. They have no way to mount a sustained and effective "guerrilla campaign" - they're not the vietcong (they wish). Not to mention the main forces on the ground are not Turks but Syrian Turkish proxies - aka expendables. If things were to really get ugly for the FSA (and Turkey); there is always Assad waiting in the wings to cleanse the place from terrorists on a backroom deal between Russia and Turkey.

Bottomline, the Kurds are not getting Afrin back and their little games with "sleeper cells" etc are insignificant. Mounting an actual defense of the city would have been more bloody and costly for Turkey and the FSA. So the idea that somehow this 4D-chess "guerrilla campaign" is gonna change anything.... it's laughable and mainly propaganda for self-consumption since they just got royally raped (gotta keep the sheep believing while the puppet masters flee). You do have a point that Turkey can not wage a sustained confrontation with the U.S, simply due to the fact that its economy will get drowned (and Europe will happily help). Given the circumstances the Turks have played their cards well. Rapprochement between Turkey and the U.S should always be expected. It's realpolitik.

Turkeys domestic problems are bleeding into its economy.  12,000 millionaires have fled in the last two years, 50,000 academics have taken their PhDs to Europe and elsewhere creating a brain drain.  Public discontent in Europe for Turkey is at an all time high and any further actions as Manjib or Iraq will bring economic consequences.  Erdogan is trying to distract the public with debt fueled growth numbers and talks of reestablishing the Ottoman empire while the economic base is fleeing the country.    

In a place like Afrin or North Iraq the terrain is like Afghanistan, it is very difficult to stop an insurgency and with the growth of Kurdish outcry from even Turkish areas it could turn into the rally cry the Kurds have been waiting for.  It made no strategic sense to take Afrin and now it could be the final nail that breaks the camels back.  Just because the US isn't helping them doesn't mean a country like Israel or France won't.  

Help them with what? Arms? Diplomatic cover? Kurds are more likely to get real significant help from Assad (under a calculated move) than from those two.  If you don't define the so called help you're just talking for the sake of talking (and they do get help but mostly intellegince sharing, moving assets (people) here or there, strategizing, but nothing significant like what the U.S has done). There will be no effective insurgency in Afrin from the Kurds. Like I said, IF, IF what you say were to happen (highly unlikely), Assad will sweep in and take control. So in essence...it's just nonsense. Afrin is lost to the YPG - all this talk is propaganda and pipedreams.

With east ghouta almost at a close and focus on yamouk area etc (which will be short lived) what target or targets will be next?????

Homs/southern hama
Daraa / southern Syria
Latakia /idilb
Northern hama / idilb
Western Aleppo / idilb
Deir ez zoir
Al dumayr area
Al tanf

Only real problem I see if they target homs is that idilb has now / soon to have loads of new bodies to throw at SAA and same scenario in Deir once yamouk is done. Ideally al dumayr area, al tanf and Deir need to be fully liberated which could be done quickly freeing up more manpower needed for idilb and western Aleppo. Once these areas are liberated homs / southern hama can be cleared leaving idilb western Aleppo northern hama Latakia (all one big front) and southern Syria left. Another problem is sleeper cells and Usa interference in Deir and al tanf and Israeli interference in southern Syria.

d_taddei2 wrote:With east ghouta almost at a close and focus on yamouk area etc (which will be short lived) what target or targets will be next?????

Homs/southern hama
Daraa / southern Syria
Latakia /idilb
Northern hama / idilb
Western Aleppo / idilb
Deir ez zoir
Al dumayr area
Al tanf  

Only real problem I see if they target homs is that idilb has now / soon to have loads of new bodies to throw at SAA and same scenario in Deir once yamouk is done. Ideally al dumayr area,  al tanf and Deir need to be fully liberated which could be done quickly freeing up more manpower needed for idilb and western Aleppo.  Once these areas are liberated homs / southern hama can be cleared leaving idilb western Aleppo northern hama Latakia  (all one big front) and southern Syria left. Another problem is sleeper cells and Usa interference in Deir and al tanf and Israeli interference in southern Syria.

Assad will likely, capture Aswad from the rebels and ISIS once Duma is taken just to fully have Damacus under his control again.

Any target in Idlib at this point will be met with resistance from the turkish army. The turks rolled in setup outposts all along the contact line, so if Assad wants to advance there he will have to walk over dead turkish army to do so. So doubtful Assad will try and advance there for now.

Al Tanf means attacking the US and Al Tanf isn't all that important anymore, So he will not attack us just for that.

Deir I assume you mean the Oil fields? that involves attacking the kurds and US again, he isn't ready for that.

his only real easy two targets are now, Al Dumayr area, Daraa and all the areas down there under rebel control. Those are his only remaining easy targets after Aswad area attacking anywhere else means conforting the turks and US at the sametime.

Edit: Forgot to mention the Hom's pocket this is chances are his best target because that would allow him to reopen the homs highway thus making it easier to send supplies.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:With east ghouta almost at a close and focus on yamouk area etc (which will be short lived) what target or targets will be next?????

Homs/southern hama
Daraa / southern Syria
Latakia /idilb
Northern hama / idilb
Western Aleppo / idilb
Deir ez zoir
Al dumayr area
Al tanf  

Only real problem I see if they target homs is that idilb has now / soon to have loads of new bodies to throw at SAA and same scenario in Deir once yamouk is done. Ideally al dumayr area,  al tanf and Deir need to be fully liberated which could be done quickly freeing up more manpower needed for idilb and western Aleppo.  Once these areas are liberated homs / southern hama can be cleared leaving idilb western Aleppo northern hama Latakia  (all one big front) and southern Syria left. Another problem is sleeper cells and Usa interference in Deir and al tanf and Israeli interference in southern Syria.

Assad will likely, capture Aswad from the rebels and ISIS once Duma is taken just to fully have Damacus under his control again.

Any target in Idlib at this point will be met with resistance from the turkish army. The turks rolled in setup outposts all along the contact line, so if Assad wants to advance there he will have to walk over dead turkish army to do so. So doubtful Assad will try and advance there for now.

Al Tanf means attacking the US and Al Tanf isn't all that important anymore, So he will not attack us just for that.

Deir I assume you mean the Oil fields? that involves attacking the kurds and US again, he isn't ready for that.

his only real easy two targets are now, Al Dumayr area, Daraa and all the areas down there under rebel control. Those are his only remaining easy targets after Aswad area attacking anywhere else means conforting the turks and US at the sametime.

Edit: Forgot to mention the Hom's pocket this is chances are his best target because that would allow him to reopen the homs highway thus making it easier to send supplies.

My view is once yamouk and east ghouta Inc douma there focus will be al dumayr and Deir (isis pocket and eradicating from Deir front) then once done on to homs. Like I said in original post this would leave idilb West Aleppo Latakia northern hama front and southern Syria. I would imagine once pressure has been placed on al dumayr area and majority of homs they will make a deal.

d_taddei2 wrote:With east ghouta almost at a close and focus on yamouk area etc (which will be short lived) what target or targets will be next?????

Homs/southern hama
Daraa / southern Syria
Latakia /idilb
Northern hama / idilb
Western Aleppo / idilb
Deir ez zoir
Al dumayr area
Al tanf  

Only real problem I see if they target homs is that idilb has now / soon to have loads of new bodies to throw at SAA and same scenario in Deir once yamouk is done. Ideally al dumayr area,  al tanf and Deir need to be fully liberated which could be done quickly freeing up more manpower needed for idilb and western Aleppo.  Once these areas are liberated homs / southern hama can be cleared leaving idilb western Aleppo northern hama Latakia  (all one big front) and southern Syria left. Another problem is sleeper cells and Usa interference in Deir and al tanf and Israeli interference in southern Syria.

Assad lets all of the terrorists flee to Idlib if they are willing to drop arms and run away. When they get there they fight against Turkish backed ISIS. He will clear up all other areas first, then move on Idlib last. All that will remain will be Turkish controlled Kurdish areas and US control East of the Euphrates. There is no point attacking US, they are far too strong but with Russian establishment of no-fly zones they can easily take back Turkish areas. The US has agreed that anything West of Euphrates is Russian domain.

ATLASCUB wrote:

Help them with what? Arms? Diplomatic cover? Kurds are more likely to get real significant help from Assad (under a calculated move) than from those two.  If you don't define the so called help you're just talking for the sake of talking (and they do get help but mostly intellegince sharing, moving assets (people) here or there, strategizing, but nothing significant like what the U.S has done). There will be no effective insurgency in Afrin from the Kurds. Like I said, IF, IF what you say were to happen (highly unlikely), Assad will sweep in and take control. So in essence...it's just nonsense. Afrin is lost to the YPG - all this talk is propaganda and pipedreams.

Assad won't help them, only to regain control for SAA. The French have been arming both Peshmerga and YPG the entire time against Daesh. The US stopped supplying them after constant begging by Turkey but the French have not stopped. Macron does not recognize the move into Afrin as legitimate and a violation of the UNSC ceasefire. After the recent Daesh attack in France it is only speeding up deliveries to YPG. They will take most of those weapons to fight Turkey. They killed a thousand YPG, that is a long way from their destruction as they are recruiting thousands every 45 days.

Vladimir79 wrote:

The YPG talks about creating a Turkish Vietnam and they abandoned Afrin city to avoid civilian casualties.  There are still several cells operating in other districts destroying FSA and TAF vehicles in ambush.  The only way they can win is to make Turkey bleed.  Their economy is quickly going down the toilet with excessive spending and junk sovereign debt ratings. Their trade deficit is massive and their FX reserves are not even enough to meet the trade balance.  Inflation is still double digits despite all efforts of Erdogan.  Ticking time bomb in Turkey.  

This is what i have been saying for a long time already . But nobody listen.
Erdogan will face a Turkish Vietnam in Syria , with guerrilla fighting ,car bombs , and constant attacks. But it will be worse ,because this time the European Union will easily arms kurds to target Turkey Soldiers.. for the European Union,
Erdogan is the biggest threat for their nation security ,with his alliance with radical extremist and for Turkey being the main gate ,that Muslim using to jump into Europe.. So Europe will be arming Kurds , and also the Syrian army too.. So Turkey army will be bleed in less than a year or two. after occupation... and Turkey economy drained ,Since cost a lot of money to finance the army ,the terrorist FSA ERdogan support and food and medicine and fuel , wars are expensive.. and on top of that you have Saudi Arabia terrorist against Erdogan terrorist.. So in 2,5 to 10 years.. all the gains of Turkey in Syria will be reversed ,when society remove ERdogan from power either by force in a coup or in elections and the new government demands all Turkey troops to return. So Erdogan actions in Syria risk provoking a civil war in Turkey itself ,if Turkey economy collapse consequence of this illegal operations in Syria.. So not only   ERdogan will lose everything they gained in Syria ,since he will never be able to hold the territory he now have.. but also Erdogan risk the partition of Turkey itself ,so eventually he will go down to history like the biggest idiot in the history in politics.. By annoying all its neighbors and becoming enemy of everyone ,including its own allies. and to hold power Erdogan will need a dictatorship like government with absolute powers for him.. but in the end will not work.

@ATLASCUB
You dont understand that Kurds don't need to "win" their battles.. to win.. all they need to do is to continuesly bleed
The Turkey army.. some Turkey soldiers killed here and there... Even Americans ,lost 8,000 soldiers in IRAQ after 10 years occupation of it.. but Turkey is not United States. it doesnt have its economy ...and the opposition of Erdogan is not IRAQ weak guerrilla. ,Kurds will be armed with modern weapons by EU  ,US and Syria too ,and will have access to satellite intelligence of Turks positions at all times.. Not even Russia ,send a large army to Syria for those Reason ,
that wars can sink your economy...and Turkey will not be able to hold the zones it control for long.. They build a power plant.. kurds destroy it.. they build a bridge ,kurds destroy it and so and so.. So good luck with this "victory". Even soviet union had to leave afganistan after 10 years... because the Resistance you can't defeat it ever.. unless you take down also the nations helping your resistance.. So for Erdogan to effectively destroy Kurds will have to take down the European Union ,US ,Syria ,that have same interest in that turkey  leave kurds zones..albeit for different reasons and Turkey attacks Syria and try to reverse all Russia and Syria gains.. then it will have to fight Russia.  If Turkey go to war with Russia for its support to Syria army,and lets say attack Russia military base , is Game over for Turkey... Since Russia will be sinking Turkey warships until Erdogan agree for peace and abandon Syria.. So literary Russia can bomb day and night most important economic assets of Turkey ,economic ports , military base ,and Turkey will have no way to stop it.. NATO (who dislike Turkey) will not come to the aid of Turkey and risk being nuked , if Turkey start the fight with Russia.. (This was already told by the Secretary of NATO ,if Turkey picks a fight with Russia ,it will be on its own)
So ERdogan is doing what he know best to do . beign ERdogan.. the king of Fools ,by playing a really risky game... the turkey army will never be able to crush Kurds if there are safe zones for them..Syria army controlled zones (which Russia protect) and American military protect zones. Erdogan will face a turkey vietnam but with NATO weapons and Russian weapons falling in the hands of the Kurds for "mysterious reasons".

@ATLASCUB
So again one more time.. is not military battles ,what Kurds needs to win.. Is Political and Economical battles
what they need to win. As long Kurds keep on high alert and unsafe AFRIN for any development or anyone to live there
killing a few soldiers here or there, detonating a bridge here or there ,destroying a powerplant here or there.. a tank or two every week ,then they will be bleeding Turkey army ,this will make headlines and ERdogan image will sink..
Again , Kurds don't need to defeat the Turkey army.. they only need to keep bleeding it..causing casualties with guerrilla tactics and humiliating Turkey army will be enough. And any new Government in Turkey ,that sack Erdogan will demand Turkey troops to abandon places the military invaded in Syria..

and Assad is helping kurds already ..not with weapons but with free passage of Kurds from their zones to Afrin.
This fight between Kurds and Turkey benefit Syrian army ,because their 2 enemies fighting each other.
For sure the Syrian Conflict will go to the history books of HOW BAD can be a country decisions in a international conflict ..with Erdogan as the king of the fools. ERdogan only chance is to use common sense and make an alliance
with Russia and all Turkey neighbors. Because he will be eliminated by Americans or europeans at the first security mistake .

Vladimir79 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:
I meant but forgot to add a qualification that the map was a bit premature/optimistic. By Monday/Tuesday it won't be far out at the current rate of progress/agreements.

Is the Brazzers logo code for something other than porn?   I don't really keep up with the lingo.  

I have no idea, I just thought it was the mapmaker's name. Here is a new map, not sure what the colours mean..

Vann7 wrote:Erdogan will face a turkey vietnam but with NATO weapons and Russian weapons falling in the hands of the Kurds for "mysterious reasons".

@ATLASCUB
So again one more time.. is not military battles ,what Kurds needs to win.. Is Political and Economical battles
what they need to win. As long Kurds keep on high alert and unsafe AFRIN for any development or anyone to live there
killing a few soldiers here or there, detonating a bridge here or there ,destroying a powerplant here or there.. a tank or two every week ,then they will be bleeding Turkey army ,this will make headlines and ERdogan image will sink..
Again , Kurds don't need to defeat the Turkey army.. they only need to keep bleeding it..causing casualties with guerrilla tactics and humiliating Turkey army will be enough. And any new Government in Turkey ,that sack Erdogan will demand Turkey troops to abandon places the military invaded in  Syria..

and Assad is helping kurds already ..not with weapons but with free passage of Kurds from their zones to Afrin.
This fight between Kurds and Turkey benefit Syrian army ,because their 2 enemies fighting each other.
For sure the Syrian Conflict will go to the history books of HOW BAD can be a country decisions in a international conflict ..with Erdogan as the king of the fools.  ERdogan only chance is to use common sense and make an alliance
with Russia and all Turkey neighbors. Because he will be eliminated by Americans or europeans at the first security mistake .

I dont know where your extreme anti-Turkist ideas emanate from, but to openly deliver weapons for YPG from Russia/Iran will definitely harm what you call "common sense".

Russia's concern, just like Turkey's, is to stop this war immediately. And settle Syrian political environment to make US's existence obsolete and unlawful. Turkish intervention started with the cause of "border security". And that is why Turkish forces do not attempt to go south. Observation posts are not illegal, because ASTANA AGREEMENT WITH RUSSIA/IRAN simply includes these outposts. Turkey is very careful with justification, not like US's dumb causes like "ISIS terrorists hiding in open desert".

And most significantly, SAA and hence Syrian government had no control over these areas, so they were unable to prevent threats against Turkish soil, leaving room for Turkish action.

If you think Turkey will remain in defence against YPG, you will be mistaken. YPG will always be in defensive, from Manbij to Sinjar in Iraq, wherever they exist.

And for the future, once Turkey removes YPG threat completely or makes it insignificant, Turkey will most likely non-aligned and will slowly retreat from frontlines and train local forces against terror attacks.

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:

I dont know where your extreme anti-Turkist ideas emanate from, but to openly deliver weapons for YPG from Russia/Iran will definitely harm what you call "common sense".

Russia's concern, just like Turkey's, is to stop this war immediately. And settle Syrian political environment to make US's existence obsolete and unlawful. Turkish intervention started with the cause of "border security". And that is why Turkish forces do not attempt to go south. Observation posts are not illegal, because ASTANA AGREEMENT WITH RUSSIA/IRAN simply includes these outposts. Turkey is very careful with justification, not like US's dumb causes like "ISIS terrorists hiding in open desert".

And most significantly, SAA and hence Syrian government had no control over these areas, so they were unable to prevent threats against Turkish soil, leaving room for Turkish action.

If you think Turkey will remain in defence against YPG, you will be mistaken. YPG will always be in defensive, from Manbij to Sinjar in Iraq, wherever they exist.

And for the future, once Turkey removes YPG threat completely or makes it insignificant, Turkey will most likely non-aligned and will slowly retreat from frontlines and train local forces against terror attacks.

Erdogan has declared his next target is Tal Rifaat. It is an Arab town protected by SAA. His fight against Kurds and YPG does not extend there outside of his own mandate but will go anyway. Using terrorism is clearly just an excuse to annex more land as Erdogan has proclaimed a return to the Ottoman Empire. All legitimacy is lost.

Vladimir79 wrote:

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:

I dont know where your extreme anti-Turkist ideas emanate from, but to openly deliver weapons for YPG from Russia/Iran will definitely harm what you call "common sense".

Russia's concern, just like Turkey's, is to stop this war immediately. And settle Syrian political environment to make US's existence obsolete and unlawful. Turkish intervention started with the cause of "border security". And that is why Turkish forces do not attempt to go south. Observation posts are not illegal, because ASTANA AGREEMENT WITH RUSSIA/IRAN simply includes these outposts. Turkey is very careful with justification, not like US's dumb causes like "ISIS terrorists hiding in open desert".

And most significantly, SAA and hence Syrian government had no control over these areas, so they were unable to prevent threats against Turkish soil, leaving room for Turkish action.

If you think Turkey will remain in defence against YPG, you will be mistaken. YPG will always be in defensive, from Manbij to Sinjar in Iraq, wherever they exist.

And for the future, once Turkey removes YPG threat completely or makes it insignificant, Turkey will most likely non-aligned and will slowly retreat from frontlines and train local forces against terror attacks.

Erdogan has declared his next target is Tal Rifaat.  It is an Arab town protected by SAA.  His fight against Kurds and YPG does not extend there outside of his own mandate but will go anyway.  Using terrorism is clearly just an excuse to annex more land as Erdogan has proclaimed a return to the Ottoman Empire.  All legitimacy is lost.

Dont confuse the complete SAA presence with radical Shiite and seperatist YPG militia. Tal Rifaat was not handed to SAA when Assad first asked for it last year. Since then, except opportunists, Tel Rifat "formally" hosts YPG led militias and PYD led "administration".

Overall, these towns are not crucial for Russian op anyways, it concerns Iranian shiite zealots.

As for Ottoman sloganism, it is just for inner politics. Greeks do it everyday and I dont see even a little concern in both nations.

After all, annexation of Syrian lands will not bring anything except negative arousal among international community, hence Turkey will never attempt something like that. What Crimea brought to Russia is clear enough.

Vann7 wrote:

Erdogan will face a Turkish Vietnam in Syria , with guerrilla fighting ,car bombs , and constant attacks. But it will be worse ,because this time the European Union will easily arms kurds to target Turkey Soldiers.. for the European Union,

I read a while ago on almasdarnews Kurd dead were about 1500. Of them 1000 were killed by air / artillery strikes. The exact number might differ from source to source (range from 1000 to 3000 killed), but overall 2 / 3 were killed not in close combat. I recall all of the dead foreign fighters were killed in air strikes.

Before that on Colonel Cassad, some said, in close combat, the Kurds were slightly better than FSA at first when they still had their defense lines intact so they were still able to maneuver, and sometimes launch hit & run counter attacks. However this advantage was quickly gone when their defense was breached.

From other sources, comments etc, it appeared the Kurds never did learn how to take cover moving people to the front. They still grouped people in convoys / buildings in broad day light, which resulted in big losses before they could even see the enemy. After suffering losses from air / artillery strikes, they were actually a lot worse than the FSA. Whoever survived initial losses didn't put up much of a fight against advancing FSA, which lead to total collapses everywhere.

IMO, it's an insult to the Vietnamese comparing the totally useless Kurds with them. The Vietnamese not only survived American B-52 carpet bombing , but also fought back and conquered Saigon. I don't think the Kurds are ever going to fight at the level anywhere near the Vietnamese.

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote: After all, annexation of Syrian lands will not bring anything except negative arousal among international community, hence Turkey will never attempt something like that. What Crimea brought to Russia is clear enough.

Russia didn't 'annex' Krimu, we the people blockaded the orcs in their lagers and offices after their threats to 'make your streets run red with blood'. When Mother did help, said help being requested by Sevastopol and Krimu by treaty, after sitting back and watching for a bit over a week, the orcs were locked in tight but even then most of the blockades were our civilians and Opolchensya. When the orcs left, in addition to them who got tossed out, there was some of your operatives in Baxhtisarai and the outlying villages who got tossed out on their ears, too. Nice job you were trying to do with Tatari Mejlis, but it didn't work and never will work.

It is going to be hard for Turkey to claim the oil fields in eastern Syria as some ancestral land or whatever. So the idea to let
Turkey undermine the SDF would be a good one. America is trying to establish a Kurd enclave to the east of the Euphrates.
At the same time they attack Russia for supporting millions of ethnic Russians in the Donbass.

Here I should say something about the Sudetenland Germans and Hitler. Hitler was right to support them. The fact that
he did does not make all such cases equivalent to the Holocaust. Borders are not God given things. They are bloody historical
hacks built on injustice in many cases. So I say every border has to be treated on a case by case basis and the amount
of "recognition" it got or gets by members of the UN means precisely f*ck all. In the case of the Germans in Czechoslovakia,
they were a pretext for Hitler to engage in military conquest well beyond an rightful German claim. Russia is not planning
to take over London by supporting the people of the Donbass who are being terrorized by the paramilitaries and Ukrainian
army remnants dispatched by the illegal coup regime in Kiev. Russia has not even invaded with its forces it is just offering
equipment and allowing volunteers to cross the border. So there is no comparison of Russian support for the Donbas
and Nazi Germany's support for the Sudetenland.

kvs wrote:It is going to be hard for Turkey to claim the oil fields in eastern Syria as some ancestral land or whatever.   So the idea to let
Turkey undermine the SDF would be a good one.   America is trying to establish a Kurd enclave to the east of the Euphrates.

To do this, Turkey tries hard to turn disorganized and randomly grouped rural Syrians called as FSA into what is called Syrian National Army / Syrian National Police or briefly SNA/SNP.

This is quite different from what is being done by Americans, which is to turn PKK and some paid mercs to Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF.

Here, the word "Democratic" basically implies Murica plans to use this force as an actor further destabilizing the region. To be honest, Turkey knew from the beginning that NATO, meaning US and Zionists plan to intervene in the region in a bloody way, and Turkey was warning Assad back in those days when Erdogan and Assad used to be "friends". However, war just broke out and Turkey wanted to take a preemptive actor position in the war. Syria quickly turned into a warzone between Sunnis and Shiites. This was coming and had Turkey not acted, Aleppo might be lost to Muricans, of course, in the name of holy democracy, with the help of "partner Syrians in SDF".

The plan is still the same. On the other hand, SNA is getting more and more regular and most significantly, negotiating. From Dar-at Izzah's south on, there is no security at all. HTS, JTS and local groups, it is a mess. But from Jinderes to Jerablus, roads being built, hospitals are serving local people and life is becoming normal. Refugees are being sent back if they are from this region. That is what SNA brought there.

In Idlib, do not expect an Assad attack before total SNA versus HTS war starts. I think Assad will stay defensive since SNA-HTS conflict will push HTS to south. They will be toasted.

Meanwhile, Assad forces might clean up all pockets and only three forces remain once all of these are done:

-Russian backed SAA
-American backed SDF
-Turkish backed SNA

Any of these two coming together against the third win the war.

Tel Rifat is under TAF control

https://twitter.com/op_shield/status/978573107479932928

"TWO TURKISH SOLDIERS DIED IN IED BLAST IN SYRIA’S AFRIN AREA."

Is this a sign of things to come, Turkey will lose a lot of soliders, I wonder if Turkey has the stomach for this.



https://southfront.org/two-turkish-soldiers-died-ied-blast-syrias-afrin-area/

Peto moving onto larger scale map


Peto Lucem
‏ @PetoLucem
2h2 hours ago

NEW MAP: The Siege of #Douma. #Russia gave militants inside the city two options: withdraw or face assault. #SAA ground forces are already amassing around Douma in case Jaish al-Islam refuses the offer.

PapaDragon wrote:
Tel Rifat is under TAF control

https://twitter.com/op_shield/status/978573107479932928

Maybe not quite yet, this is an optimistic guy!


Wladimir
‏ @vvanwilgenburg
1h1 hour ago

Journalist @farhad_shami says he is at the entrance of Til Rifaat. He says no truth about Russians meeting with Turks in Til Rifaat (was Azaz). Til Rifaat not handed over yet. YPG fight will continue. He says Turks want to exchange Til Rifaat for Jisr al-Shughur

https://twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/978684410924068865



Mind you its probably all over bar the shouting, copy of WH press release at link.


Ahval
‏ @ahval_en

#Breaking:

Acc to White House readout of the phone call with French Pres Macron, U.S. Pres Trump "stressed the need to intensify cooperation with Turkey with respect to shared strategic challenges in Syria."

https://twitter.com/ahval_en/status/978665594621976576

New mapper, not seen before

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZW9e5cX4AAGOP3.jpg

Looks like it is hotting up in the east.

Syria Scope En
‏ @Syria_scope_En
9h9 hours ago

The #SDF confirms that the #US United States is Establishing one of the largest bases in Syria in the resource-rich area of al-Omar (#DeirEzzor)

Nidalgazaui
‏ @Nidalgazaui
9h9 hours ago

#CONFIRMED

1. Attack at Albu Kamal city at night

2. Advancing through all army checkpoints in the desert close to the outskrits of Albu Kamal city

3. At the morning IS withdrew from the outskirts of Albu Kamal and attacked in another direction -- > T2, Humamiyah

9h9 hours ago

Meanwhile #ISIS is engaging #SAA forces in the area of T2, Humamiyah and T3 pumping station north of #Palmyra. The background of the attack is now clear, IS wants to secure the whole desert from Palmyra to Albu Kamal

9h9 hours ago

#DeirEzzor: #ISIS has attacked Ayn Ali town earilier this morning and killed 9 pro #SAA forces