Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


    Russian Economy General News: #9

    Share
    avatar
    GunshipDemocracy

    Posts : 1988
    Points : 2030
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Age : 76
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:51 am


    Cyberspec wrote:

    It can't be denied that the CBR has overall, done a pretty good job the past 2-3 years in difficult circumstances....the main criticism seems to be that they are way to conservative on interest rates and need to be more aggressive. But CBR's "inflation-phobia" (or is that just an excuse?) is deeply embeded


    Well IMHO business is no t about risking but about popper risk management. CBR assumed very conservative i.e.low risk path. Apparently risky approach might bring faster move of economy but risks were unacceptable high. In 2017 there is a chance of 7,75 % yearly base-rate. It is still far form China (4,4%) but already releases lots of money to the market.




    Maybe afterwards there will be right time to sell gas or crude oil for Rubles/Yuans?

    Seems that time is coming sooner than we thought (Yuan for Gold)....if it's implemented in practice it will be the equivalent of an earthquake I think
    [/quote]

    In current shape of world economy this would be disaster for Russia and China as well. This not about destroying in one night. This would hurt all also clients of Russian goods. Not to mention Chinese. onrs To my understanding the plan is to build an alternative, yuan denominated, world as option for others . This with military support (so west has no possibility to attack like Syria or Libya) and slowly restricts possibility for US to live above own means... then gradual collapse of Us economy starts.




    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/99854/

    Non-oil exports from Russia to China grew by 32 percent

    The non-west economy is growing and diversifying.   There is a massive potential for trade between Russia and China.   These
    two countries can completely overshadow the EU in the near term.   This is what has NATO's panties in a bunch.    

    China overshadows alone  EU for some time already Smile
    avatar
    kvs

    Posts : 3409
    Points : 3534
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Canuckistan

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  kvs on Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:44 am

    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/99854/

    Non-oil exports from Russia to China grew by 32 percent

    The non-west economy is growing and diversifying.   There is a massive potential for trade between Russia and China.   These
    two countries can completely overshadow the EU in the near term.   This is what has NATO's panties in a bunch.    

    China overshadows alone  EU for some time already Smile

    As of 2016 they both have almost the same PPP GDP. China and Russia can increase their per capita GDP by 50-100% so
    the combined PPP GDP would be over twice that of the EU.
    avatar
    kvs

    Posts : 3409
    Points : 3534
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Canuckistan

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  kvs on Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:21 am



    Russia seems to have good export and trade links and potential to South America.

    Austin

    Posts : 6523
    Points : 6924
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:55 am

    ‘Nothing revolutionary’ about new US sanctions against Russia – Fitch

    https://www.rt.com/business/408454-fitch-us-sanctions-nothing-revolutionary/
    avatar
    Cyberspec

    Posts : 2269
    Points : 2436
    Join date : 2011-08-08
    Location : Terra Australis

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Cyberspec on Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:19 am

    Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan meet for strategic talks, billions in energy deals
    The three nations’ leaders met in Tehran to express solidarity for Iran in the face of Trump’s rhetoric, plus plan strategic cooperation
    http://russiafeed.com/russia-iran-azerbaijan-meet-strategic-talks-billions-energy-deals/
    avatar
    GunshipDemocracy

    Posts : 1988
    Points : 2030
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Age : 76
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:47 am

    Well, there is potentially huge internal market then export one. For both mechanical and robotic industries. Good example for use of dual purpose technologies. That's how army robots' investments can pay back.

    Russian scientists plan to develop robotic agricultural machinery



    http://tass.ru/nauka/4701164



    kvs wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/99854/

    Non-oil exports from Russia to China grew by 32 percent

    The non-west economy is growing and diversifying.   There is a massive potential for trade between Russia and China.   These
    two countries can completely overshadow the EU in the near term.   This is what has NATO's panties in a bunch.    

    China overshadows alone  EU for some time already Smile

    As of 2016 they both have almost the same PPP GDP.     China and Russia can increase their per capita GDP by 50-100% so
    the combined PPP GDP would be over twice that of the EU.

    PPP GDP IMF estimates for 2017

    1 China[n 1] 23,122,027
    — European Union[n 2] 20,852,70



    PPP GDP for 2016 by World Bank

    1 China[n 1] 21,417,150
    — European Union[n 2] 19,721,689


    Well true that Chinese GDP grows higher but I hope that after 2018 elections the Russian  one will grow more then 4% but with current Oreskhin policy unlikely Smile

    Austin

    Posts : 6523
    Points : 6924
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:50 pm

    Glazyev estimated the loss of the Russian economy from the system of currency regulation at $ 100 billion a year

    https://rns.online/economy/Glazev-otsenil-poteri-ekonomiki-Rossii-ot-sistemi-valyutnogo-regulirovaniya-v-100-mlrd-v-god-2017-11-01/

    Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation Sergey Glazyev estimated the losses of the Russian economy from the existing system of currency regulation at $ 100 billion per year. He said this to RNS.

    "Almost 30% of transactions performed in the financial market are made in favor of non-residents, among which a significant part are our legal and natural persons who withdrew money from Russia. We receive an inequivalent exchange: cheap money without taxes is exported, and expensive money with obstacles comes back. On it, we lose annually about $ 100 billion a year. This is a purely colonial system of currency regulation, which is inherently ridiculous, "he said.

    According to Glazyev, the Russian system of currency regulation needs substantial changes, under which the inflow of money to Russia will be less limited, while the outflow is only within certain areas.

    "Look how it works in China. A similar system should be adopted in Russia. We need to avoid the dollarization of our money supply, work in the same way as our Chinese partners and most other countries work, that is, it is allowed to import money without restrictions with control, of course, certain, but it is limited to export only by those directions that are necessary for economic development, investment in export infrastructure, "he said.

    "We have created a unique practice in the world when it is much more difficult to import money to Russia than to take it out. We actually do not have any restrictions for transfer abroad, if it is properly designed. But to import money into Russia is extremely difficult. At us the most part of the private capital necessary for reproduction of economy, is in off-shores. The policy of monetary authorities has already led to the fact that more than half of the non-state capital circulating in Russia has offshore jurisdiction, "Glazyev summed up.
    avatar
    GunshipDemocracy

    Posts : 1988
    Points : 2030
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Age : 76
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:20 pm

    Austin wrote:Glazyev estimated the loss of the Russian economy from the system of currency regulation at $ 100 billion a year

    https://rns.online/economy/Glazev-otsenil-poteri-ekonomiki-Rossii-ot-sistemi-valyutnogo-regulirovaniya-v-100-mlrd-v-god-2017-11-01/

    Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation Sergey Glazyev estimated the losses of the Russian economy from the existing system of currency regulation at $ 100 billion

    According to Glazyev, the Russian system of currency regulation needs substantial changes, under which the inflow of money to Russia will be less limited, while the outflow is only within certain areas.

    "Look how it works in China. A similar system should be adopted in Russia. We need to avoid the dollarization of our money supply, work in the same way as our Chinese partners and most other countries work, that is, it is allowed to import money without restrictions with control, of course, certain, but it is limited to export only by those directions that are necessary for economic development, investment in export infrastructure, "he said.

    "We have created a unique practice in the world when it is much more difficult to import money to Russia than to take it out. We actually do not have any restrictions for transfer abroad, if it is properly designed. But to import money into Russia is extremely difficult. At us the most part of the private capital necessary for reproduction of economy, is in off-shores. The policy of monetary authorities has already led to the fact that more than half of the non-state capital circulating in Russia has offshore jurisdiction, "Glazyev summed up.


    The Ministry of Economic Development named the conditions for accelerating the growth rates of the Russian economy

    MOSCOW, September 25 (Itar-Tass) - RIA Novosti . The economy of the Russian Federation should find 5 trillion rubles of additional investments a year to grow faster than the world average, said the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin, speaking at a conference at the corporate university of the Savings Bank.

    Russia's economy outperforms sovereign rating, authorities and business consider
    "The investment activity, which was seriously declining at the end of 2014, in 2015, has emerged from the middle of last year to a positive dynamic, there is a recovery, it is very important to move forward, investment growth should become stronger, the number of projects to be implemented in the Russian economy should become more ", - said the head of the Ministry of Economic Development.
    "According to our estimates, in order for the Russian economy to reach the growth rates above the world average by 2016, we need to add about 5 trillion rubles of additional investment each year," Oreshkin said.
    "In general, by 2017, we expect growth (GDP - Ed.) Slightly above 2% (official forecast - 2.1% - Ed.)," The minister also recalled.

    РИА Новости https://ria.ru/economy/20170925/1505465132.html



    \

    5 trillions is about 90bln USD right?
    avatar
    miketheterrible

    Posts : 1857
    Points : 1855
    Join date : 2016-11-06

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Nov 03, 2017 9:40 pm

    The economic clowns are losing their positions soon I think, especially after elections as hinted by speaker were she says they are losing their credibility. I think some are trying to save their positions by siding with Putin. All Russia's growth now, even at 2.3%, is entirely due to military sector, scientific sector and businesses involved heavily in import substitution. Barely anything from CB and Economic ministry. Only growth from their efforts are in banking sector.
    avatar
    Cyberspec

    Posts : 2269
    Points : 2436
    Join date : 2011-08-08
    Location : Terra Australis

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Cyberspec on Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:22 am

    So what are you guys suggesting?....That the Russian Gov is purposely sabotaging the economy?

    They've signed up to the Eurasian integration project, they're buying large amounts of gold, they've even embraced a crypto-currency...we can argue about strategies or the pace of reforms and yes I agree that they have a lot of "dead liberal wood" that needs to be dropped but overall they look like they're going in the right direction
    avatar
    kvs

    Posts : 3409
    Points : 3534
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Canuckistan

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  kvs on Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:43 am

    Cyberspec wrote:So what are you guys suggesting?....That the Russian Gov is purposely sabotaging the economy?

    They've signed up to the Eurasian integration project, they're buying large amounts of gold, they've even embraced a crypto-currency...we can argue about strategies or the pace of reforms and yes I agree that they have a lot of "dead liberal wood" that needs to be dropped but overall they look like they're going in the right direction

    You fail to understand Russian reality. Various 5th column elements exert vastly more influence on Russia than they do the
    USA and NATO countries. The CBR, the Finance Ministry and other government parts are infiltrated with monetarists.
    After all monetarists were in complete control during Yeltsin's regime and even had sway during Putin's first term in office.

    It has been discussed numerous times in this part of the board that the CBR's high interest rate policy is

    1) Not justified. The CBR acts as if Russia has inflationary instability when in fact Russia has none. Russia had 15% inflation
    when it was growing at 8% per year and the money supply was increasing at 50% per year. The late 2014 ruble forex
    induced inflation shock dissipated 100% by the end of March of 2015. If Russia had a problem with inflation, this shock would
    have induced oscillations and the CPI would not have settled down just because the CBR jacked up the prime lending rate to
    17%. Take a look at countries around the world which had problems fighting inflation. The central bank has never had total
    control over inflation. The CPI is a multivariate dynamical problem and can't be tuned with the central bank rate. In
    Canada, during the late 1970s, the federal government had to institute wage increase limits to fight inflation.

    Also, the CBR pretends that all price increases after 1991 are purely inflationary. This is just retarded. How can some
    token Soviet price transitioning to market prices be called inflation. Inflation is something that afflicts evolved capitalist
    economies and not transition states. Many goods and services in Russia were not even priced at all. According the
    stellar intellects at the CBR these goods and services must have experienced infinite inflation.

    2) Damages the economy. Small business have said that 30% of the prices are due CBR's high rate policy. So the CBR
    is suppressing the competitiveness of small business in Russia and stalling Russia's development. Businesses of all sizes
    require routine borrowing for operations. This is not consumer splurging. This sound business practice. You can't collect
    cash and wait to retool. By the time you get enough money the market will have moved on and you are going bankrupt.
    A 10% prime rate, which becomes more like 14% for business borrowing, forces companies to look for loans outside of Russia.
    This has two effects, first, to expose Russia to forex fluctuations and sanctions, and second, to suppress development of
    banking in Russia since bank assets are loans and no loans means not assets.

    avatar
    Cyberspec

    Posts : 2269
    Points : 2436
    Join date : 2011-08-08
    Location : Terra Australis

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Cyberspec on Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:54 am

    I understand what you're saying...

    Russia was (and still is to a large degree) part of the global monetarist system...and yes there is a class of people who benefit personally from that set up. All I'm saying is that they seem to moving in another direction...can it be done quicker?...maybe....but I don't think you can do it overnight without causing a shock!

    Surely it's obvious that the strategic moves Russia is making are aimed at undermining the current global system

    Austin

    Posts : 6523
    Points : 6924
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:06 am

    I think Putin is part of the problem along with CBR and other clown , Keeping free flow of capital and exchange rate just make the Thugs Steal Money from Russian Citizen and transfer it to Western Banks.

    Putin knows this too well but is unwilling or unable to control this so he is part of the problem.

    Why does Russia needs Free Floating Currency and Full Capital Account Convertibility , No control on either money coming in or going out beats me all the more when it is under full Western Sanctions , Plus CBR keeps buying US T bills and every month it keeps increasing the purchase.

    This is Sabotage by them nothing short of that.

    Austin

    Posts : 6523
    Points : 6924
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:13 am

    What do you make of Michael Pento Analysis


    Austin

    Posts : 6523
    Points : 6924
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:37 am

    EIA: Russia Oil Market Overview

    http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/eia-russia-oil-market-overview/
    avatar
    miketheterrible

    Posts : 1857
    Points : 1855
    Join date : 2016-11-06

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:33 pm

    I doubt CBR is willfully doing this. Intentionally causing trouble. Because if they were, they would be trying to improve relations with the west, not pushing and moving to alternative markets like Asia. Instead, its pure ignorance on their part from what they learned at the higher school of economics. The problem most people even here fail to get, its same thing in Russia, is that most are narrow minded. Most of Russia's economists have no idea of the economic factors outside of what they were taught. To make matters worst, they really lack any kind of alternative teachings to economics outside of what is available now, and especially, back during the 90's. So what they know, is all there is to them. If one recalls, back in the 80's, Canada was in same boat. US too. Were interest rates were as high as 18%. These same methods are practiced everywhere because everyone's economic system is tied back to the globalist economic structure. Even Iran, who has been in economic sanctions since 79, is having interest rates by their CB at 18% now. Only difference is, Islamic banking system that exists in Iran compliments the system by offering interest free loans. Something that doesn't exist in Russia yet, but German Gref from sberbank and CB was promoting for Russia, especially back in 2014. Even orthodox bank were pushing for same thing, and bringing their own as well. But of course, things went quiet.

    Medvedev has been pushing for the increase in kickstarter like platforms for investments and borrowing for businesses. As KVS said, the interest rates has been bad for small business. But the CB doesn't give a crap about small business as to them, SB brings very little to revenue. So the interest rates is what they used as an example for lowering inflation. Although, its highly debateable if that even helps inflation and as per KVS reasoning, it isn't. But what it has done, and something that became obvious after some news clippings, was that the profits of banks have been massive this year. And now, savings are probably highest in recent Russian history. So what it has done, was rescue banks. And this is something that they were trying to do without getting mass protests. But the people are starting to become aware.

    Already they are lowering interests. But it isn't enough. Like KVS said, it should be around 4% and that's it. But the CB is trying to flood the banking system with disposable cash and I think that's wrong. All the while Russian businesses are either getting Chinese loans, or outright relying on big business investment and development. There is of course a lot of favoritism in Russian loan industry, where major large companies in Russia get much lower interest rate loans from Russian banks, than small or medium businesses do, cause banks end up getting a decent cut out of it too.

    So my conclusion is they aren't 5th columnist scums working for someone outside. But they are ending up doing the western favor because that is all they do know. As for buying t bonds, they are trying to push the Chinese method, and it isn't working in their favor.
    avatar
    kvs

    Posts : 3409
    Points : 3534
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Canuckistan

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  kvs on Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:09 pm

    Whether it is malice or ignorance, at the end of the day Russia is being f*cked over:



    The video does not get into a lot of detail, but the main arguments are valid. The CBR is acting like a banana
    republic colonial bank serving foreign interests. BTW, the Russian government does not run the CBR. Yeltsin
    set the CBR to be like the US Fed.

    However, I do not believe Russia needs to imitate the 0% policies of NATO countries. Russia does not need to
    fake-up its GDP growth via a credit bubbles. This does not mean that Russia needs the criminal 10% rates of
    the CBR. Right now the CPI in Russia is 3.6% but the prime interest rate set by the CBR is almost 3 times higher.

    avatar
    miketheterrible

    Posts : 1857
    Points : 1855
    Join date : 2016-11-06

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:59 pm

    Well, in retrospect he is right in the sense its a foreign bank, since the head of the CB studied at higher school of economics, which is an IMF school, and the bank is more or less IMF controlled in aspect. People of it may be not, but bank itself is IMF. So is Chinese as well. Hence why IMF was so good at accepting Yuans as a reserve currency.

    IMF is its own entity and they do what isn't in favor of US or UK, but in their own favor, which usually works in tandem with US and UK interests. At this point, IMF needs to be classified as foreign agent imo.
    avatar
    TheArmenian

    Posts : 1762
    Points : 1919
    Join date : 2011-09-14

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  TheArmenian on Sat Nov 04, 2017 5:48 pm

    kvs wrote:Whether it is malice or ignorance, at the end of the day Russia is being f*cked over:



    The video does not get into a lot of detail, but the main arguments are valid.   The CBR is acting like a banana
    republic colonial bank serving foreign interests.   BTW, the Russian government does not run the CBR.   Yeltsin
    set the CBR to be like the US Fed.  

    However, I do not believe Russia needs to imitate the 0% policies of NATO countries.   Russia does not need to
    fake-up its GDP growth via a credit bubbles.   This does not mean that Russia needs the criminal 10% rates of
    the CBR.    Right now the CPI in Russia is 3.6% but the prime interest rate set by the CBR is almost 3 times higher.


    The CBR rate is being cut at almost every CB meeting over the last few months.
    Currently the interest rate stands at 8.25%. Of course, the average loan seeker will have to pay a little but more than that.
    It is expected that with the low inflation prevailing in Russia, the rate will be cut further down.

    Maybe the rate is not being cut fast enough for your or my liking. But doing it too quickly can create adverse effects.

    The Russian GDP is currently (autumn 2017) growing probably by around 3%. I expect that with further gradual cuts of the rate, the GDP will grow by at least 4% in 2018.
    The government and CBR people are being very conservative in their predictions.

    The next CBR meeting is in mid December. Let's see what they will do this time.
    avatar
    kvs

    Posts : 3409
    Points : 3534
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Canuckistan

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  kvs on Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:49 pm

    TheArmenian wrote:
    kvs wrote:Whether it is malice or ignorance, at the end of the day Russia is being f*cked over:



    The video does not get into a lot of detail, but the main arguments are valid.   The CBR is acting like a banana
    republic colonial bank serving foreign interests.   BTW, the Russian government does not run the CBR.   Yeltsin
    set the CBR to be like the US Fed.  

    However, I do not believe Russia needs to imitate the 0% policies of NATO countries.   Russia does not need to
    fake-up its GDP growth via a credit bubbles.   This does not mean that Russia needs the criminal 10% rates of
    the CBR.    Right now the CPI in Russia is 3.6% but the prime interest rate set by the CBR is almost 3 times higher.


    The CBR rate is being cut at almost every CB meeting over the last few months.
    Currently the interest rate stands at 8.25%. Of course, the average loan seeker will have to pay a little but more than that.
    It is expected that with the low inflation prevailing in Russia, the rate will be cut further down.

    Maybe the rate is not being cut fast enough for your or my liking. But doing it too quickly can create adverse effects.

    The Russian GDP is currently (autumn 2017) growing probably by around 3%. I expect that with further gradual cuts of the rate, the GDP will grow by at least 4% in 2018.
    The government and CBR people are being very conservative in their predictions.

    The next CBR meeting is in mid December. Let's see what they will do this time.

    I guess you were not paying attention over the last 17 years. The CBR prime rate was 8.5% when the CPI was 13%. After
    Nabiullina and her Higher School of Economics compardors took over they inverted the CBR rate policy. You are going to have to do
    a vast amount better than fobbing me off as merely "not liking" the CBR policy. Go on, justify why 8.25% is justified now when
    inflation is 3.6%. Why is the rate not less than 3.6% as it was before. During the previous CBR policy of the 2000s and early
    2010s, Russia saw GDP growth rates over 7%.

    BTW, only clowns would credit the current CPI in Russia to Nabiullina. The CPI downward trend has been evident over the last
    10 years at least and predates Nabiullina.

    Just gotta love internet politicians who ignore 100% what people write in their posts and spew some drivel agenda. To repeat,
    there is no inflationary instability in Russia because the massive inflation spike triggered by the late 2014 forex drop (thanks
    to Nabiullina, BTW) completely dissipated in 5 months. A forced dissipate response pattern is not the same thing
    as an oscillatory or trending pattern. Only the latter two patterns speak to inflationary instability.

    So, cranking down the current prime rate (BTW, consumers and businesses do not pay 8.25%, they pay closer to 11%)
    to 4% is mandatory and Nabiullina's 5 year plan or whatever BS she is following is criminal.
    avatar
    GunshipDemocracy

    Posts : 1988
    Points : 2030
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Age : 76
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:16 am

    Cyberspec wrote:I understand what you're saying...

    Russia was (and still is to a large degree) part of the global monetarist system...and yes there is a class of people who benefit personally from that set up. All I'm saying is that they seem to moving in another direction...can it be done quicker?...maybe....but I don't think you can do it overnight without causing a shock!

    Surely it's obvious that the strategic moves Russia is making are aimed at undermining the current global system

    +

    TheArmenian wrote:

    The CBR rate is being cut at almost every CB meeting over the last few months.
    Currently the interest rate stands at 8.25%. Of course, the average loan seeker will have to pay a little but more than that.
    It is expected that with the low inflation prevailing in Russia, the rate will be cut further down.

    Maybe the rate is not being cut fast enough for your or my liking. But doing it too quickly can create adverse effects.

    The Russian GDP is currently (autumn 2017) growing probably by around 3%. I expect that with further gradual cuts of the rate, the GDP will grow by at least 4% in 2018.
    The government and CBR people are being very conservative in their predictions.

    The next CBR meeting is in mid December. Let's see what they will do this time.




    I agree with you. Otherwise we got to a strange confusion that Uncle Vova wants to destroy Russian economy...Vova took course for stability first. So people overnight dfo not wake up with all savings gone or currency reserves of CBR run down to 0. Then enough to ask kindly Russian companies to give back immediately loans back and you have default.


    TYes Glaziyev is correct that this can be improved but look like it was with bribery in govt agencies...slowly but surely.  Then replacing governors. Then sealing banking system. Look that many times less capital outflows than 3 years ago...


    Nabiulina wants to lower interest rate to about 6% what is close to Chinese one when China was growing 11% pa. Am I correct?


    BTW Glazyiev is still there this means that for some reason Putin keeps him as an adviser. Seems that time didn't come  yet.




    Last edited by GunshipDemocracy on Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:40 am; edited 1 time in total
    avatar
    GunshipDemocracy

    Posts : 1988
    Points : 2030
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Age : 76
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:30 am

    kvs wrote:
    TheArmenian wrote:

    The CBR rate is being cut at almost every CB meeting over the last few months.
    Currently the interest rate stands at 8.25%. Of course, the average loan seeker will have to pay a little but more than that.
    It is expected that with the low inflation prevailing in Russia, the rate will be cut further down.

    Maybe the rate is not being cut fast enough for your or my liking. But doing it too quickly can create adverse effects.

    The Russian GDP is currently (autumn 2017) growing probably by around 3%. I expect that with further gradual cuts of the rate, the GDP will grow by at least 4% in 2018.
    The government and CBR people are being very conservative in their predictions.

    The next CBR meeting is in mid December. Let's see what they will do this time.

    I guess you were not paying attention over the last 17 years.    The CBR prime rate was 8.5% when the CPI was 13%.   After
    Nabiullina and her Higher School of Economics compardors took over they inverted the CBR rate policy.    You are going to have to do
    a vast amount better than fobbing me off as merely "not liking" the CBR policy.   Go on, justify why 8.25% is justified now when
    inflation is 3.6%.   Why is the rate not less than 3.6% as it was before.   During the previous CBR policy of the 2000s and early
    2010s, Russia saw GDP growth rates over 7%.

     

    +



    Austin wrote:I think Putin is part of the problem along with CBR and other clown , Keeping free flow of capital and exchange rate just make the Thugs Steal Money from Russian Citizen and transfer it to Western Banks.

    Putin knows this too well but is unwilling or unable to control this  so he is part of the problem.

    Why does Russia needs Free Floating Currency and Full Capital Account Convertibility , No control on either money coming in or going out beats me all the more when it is under full Western Sanctions , Plus CBR keeps buying US T bills and every month it keeps increasing the purchase.

    This is Sabotage by them nothing short of that.









    No Sir, current international relations you cannot compare with hat was 2004-2008 vand 2008-2014.  First of all - then Russia had to stabilize social sphere and rebuild military. Weak military = Libya orc in European case Yugoslavia. Economy is never in space.

    BTW growth of GDP depends of many factor including base. Adding 1 to 2 gives you 50% growth, Adding 2 to 10 you get 20% only...The way fo growth in 000s cannot be repeated with current infrastructure,governance and leaking financial system. All fo that is gradually addressed. am I happy with pace? nope but also I do not have responsibility and data as Putin has.



    in 2014 when Russian economy started to develop US hit t destroy it and force Vova to surrender. Or go mad and attack Ukraine. Russia was NOT ready for cutting of the world. Was slowly building own payment system, now will be connected with Chinese one. Russia is continuously buying gold....


    Now there is happening all import substitution, investments in high tech, sealing banking systems and changing of governance both in economy and in politics. I eblieve that thsi sealing system is to allos THEN to pour more money to economy.


    As for debt/inflation/CPI - then Russia was subsiding with oil revenue social and military spheres. Now there is no such conditions. You cannot live above your means not having or forcing other counties to support you. Russian CBR is very conservative for some reason. Maybe risk of shocks (taking into account geopolitics + intelligence reports) that this way was chosen by Putin. Do you really think Putin would let Nabiulina to go against him in long term?



    Austin

    Posts : 6523
    Points : 6924
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:14 am

    Peter Schiff // The bubble now is housing, stock market & bond bubble combined


    Austin

    Posts : 6523
    Points : 6924
    Join date : 2010-05-08
    Location : India

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:43 am

    Well if CBR is not sabotaging buying more US T Bills every month then what it is.

    The Gold they buy is half of value then the T bills they hold.

    Why would any one buy T Bills from a country who is expelicity hostile and has sanctioned is beyond any ones bet.

    Why cant they buy more IMF SDR or even Euro Bonds or Chinese Bonds beats me , If this is not sabotage then what it is , Today T-Bills Value in Russian Forex is $105 and it has been steadily rising , why subsidise those Idiots with hard earned Russian Money when so many options are available to CBR ?
    avatar
    GunshipDemocracy

    Posts : 1988
    Points : 2030
    Join date : 2015-05-17
    Age : 76
    Location : fishin on Stalin´s Strait between Mexico and Canada

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:49 pm

    Austin wrote:Well if CBR is not sabotaging buying more US T Bills every month then what it is.

    The Gold they buy is half of value then the T bills they hold.

    Why would any one buy T Bills from a country who is expelicity hostile and has sanctioned is beyond any ones bet.

    Why cant they buy more IMF SDR or even Euro Bonds or Chinese Bonds beats me , If this is not sabotage then what it is , Today T-Bills Value in Russian Forex is $105 and it has been steadily rising , why subsidise those Idiots with hard earned Russian Money when so many options are available to CBR ?

    US currency we want or not is reserve currency t the whole world. In order provide banks with currency liquidity CBR has to pile up USD. Russia's US denominated debt is decreasing but still high. I think CBR can protect economy form sudden blows of speculators. IMF is based and directed by whom? US, Euro has its part in reserves but is not main reserve currency yet. Neither Yuan. We like this or not.

    BTW Yunan was sill recently pegged to USD too.

    Sponsored content

    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:07 pm