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    Russian Economy General News: #9

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    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:33 pm

    Putin Pals Panic Over US "Corrupt Oligarchs" List, Begin Liquidating Assets

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-15/putin-pals-panic-over-us-corrupt-oligarchs-list-begin-liquidating-assets
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  kvs on Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:23 pm

    Austin wrote:Putin Pals Panic Over US "Corrupt Oligarchs" List, Begin Liquidating Assets

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-15/putin-pals-panic-over-us-corrupt-oligarchs-list-begin-liquidating-assets

    Drivel. Every London-resident oligarch is not Putin's friend or acquaintance.

    This article is more propaganda along the lines that Putin is a secret billionaire. Smear and innuendo without a shred of
    evidence.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:34 pm

    but its also telling about how now the Russian billionairs are liquidating their foreign assets because they are afraid of losing them. Which is a good thing too.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:28 am

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Putin Pals Panic Over US "Corrupt Oligarchs" List, Begin Liquidating Assets

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-15/putin-pals-panic-over-us-corrupt-oligarchs-list-begin-liquidating-assets

    Drivel. Every London-resident oligarch is not Putin's friend or acquaintance.

    This article is more propaganda along the lines that Putin is a secret billionaire. Smear and innuendo without a shred of
    evidence.

    Well any one even seen photographing with Putin may be in trouble too Smile

    In a way its good they need to liquadate those asset and bring it to russia there is already a tax ammenesty scheme. If they still loose money due to sanctions it is their own fault

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:28 am

    New US sanctions will create difficulties for the Russian defense industry - Manturov

    http://militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=471310
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Kimppis on Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:49 pm

    Once again an excellent article by Alexander Mercouris, about the potential new sanctions and their impact:

    http://theduran.com/us-ambassador-russia-downplays-threat-sanctions/
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:26 pm

    Austin wrote:New US sanctions will create difficulties for the Russian defense industry - Manturov

    http://militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=1&nid=471310

    It won't much other than give new opportunities. Example is that banks who said they won't invest in defense companies because of potential sanctions, weren't offered in first place. Instead, Russian banks already sanctioned may get dibs in investing in defense companies. Second, the government is looking to create a bank specifically for this, which means more money in government pockets. Thirdly, it will mean more self sustainability. If they can't get foreign parts, they will continue to build up own scientific base and produce parts locally. And many other goods can be obtained from sanctioned companies in China (China has companies sanctioned due to pirated hardware and alike).

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:02 pm

    Kimppis wrote:Once again an excellent article by Alexander Mercouris, about the potential new sanctions and their impact:

    http://theduran.com/us-ambassador-russia-downplays-threat-sanctions/

    Point 2 reminds me of the argument of "Good Will of the Thief not to Rob you"

    There is no need for Russia to buy US T bills in the first place it can just convert most of US T bills into Euro T Bills and then convert part of it into Gold or simply pay off the Debt.

    Investing in T Bills and then arguing US wont freeze it because of Global Implication etc is like Depending on Good Will of Rapist not to Rape You , Why should Russia even wait for let the US think about such a thing let alone do it.

    IF US does Freeze Russian Forex then you have to blame the Stupidity of Russian CBR and Putin that it had purchased it in first place
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    Cyberspec

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Cyberspec on Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:38 am

    The article says it's money held in the IMF...and I doubt it's a large amount
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:50 am

    Cyberspec wrote:The article says it's money held in the IMF...and I doubt it's a large amount

    It's rumored to be 1/3 of the amount. But most speculate it's less than 1/10 of it.

    But still.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:33 am



    The surplus of the foreign trade balance of Russia in 2017 increased by 28%

    Moscow. January 17. INTERFAX.RU - The positive balance of foreign trade in Russia in 2017 increased by 28%, to $ 115.8 billion compared to $ 90.3 billion in 2016, according to the assessment of the balance of payments published on the website of the Central Bank of Russia.

    The volume of exports in 2017 amounted to $ 353.7 billion, which is 26% more than in 2016 ($ 281.9 billion).

    The volume of imports grew by 24% in 2017, to $ 237.9 billion from $ 191.6 billion in 2016.

    In the published comments of the Central Bank to the assessment of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation for 2017 it is noted that against the backdrop of favorable price conjuncture in commodity markets, there was a noticeably higher growth in the value of exports of goods compared with imports.

    According to the updated base scenario of the Central Bank's forecast in December (at an oil price of $ 53 per barrel), the foreign trade surplus of the Russian Federation in 2017 is expected at $ 112 billion with exports of $ 349 billion and imports of $ 237 billion.

    http://www.interfax.ru/business/595839
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    Singular_Transform

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Singular_Transform on Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:53 am

    Austin wrote:

    The surplus of the foreign trade balance of Russia in 2017 increased by 28%

    Moscow. January 17. INTERFAX.RU - The positive balance of foreign trade in Russia in 2017 increased by 28%, to $ 115.8 billion compared to $ 90.3 billion in 2016, according to the assessment of the balance of payments published on the website of the Central Bank of Russia.

    The volume of exports in 2017 amounted to $ 353.7 billion, which is 26% more than in 2016 ($ 281.9 billion).

    The volume of imports grew by 24% in 2017, to $ 237.9 billion from $ 191.6 billion in 2016.

    In the published comments of the Central Bank to the assessment of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation for 2017 it is noted that against the backdrop of favorable price conjuncture in commodity markets, there was a noticeably higher growth in the value of exports of goods compared with imports.

    According to the updated base scenario of the Central Bank's forecast in December (at an oil price of $ 53 per barrel), the foreign trade surplus of the Russian Federation in 2017 is expected at $ 112 billion with exports of $ 349 billion and imports of $ 237 billion.

    http://www.interfax.ru/business/595839

    Maybe its time to restrict the export of oil products / minerals from Russia.

    What is the point to run this magnitude of trade surplus?

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:19 am

    Gold The Once and Future Money with James Rickards


    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:22 am

    Russians have accumulated almost 30 trillion rubles

    Citizens still trust their money to banks more

    https://iz.ru/697226/inna-grigoreva/rossiiane-nakopili-pochti-30-trln-rublei

    Over the past year, the ruble accumulation of Russians increased by almost 14%, which exceeds inflation by 5.5 times. According to Rosstat, the volume of savings reached a record amount of almost 30 trillion rubles. Most of the money the population keeps on bank deposits - almost 20 trillion rubles, the smaller - in securities and cash - about 10 trillion. The accumulation of citizens increased due to the growth of real wages and favorable rates on deposits.

    Russians at the beginning of December 2017 increased their savings to 29.5 trillion rubles. This is stated in the Rosstat data, which Izvestia got acquainted with. The growth was 13.9%, while last year's inflation was only 2.5%.

    Most of all, Russian citizens trust their money to banks. The volume of deposits amounted to 19.6 trillion rubles (excluding foreign currency deposits). In cash, Russians - 5 trillion rubles, and in securities - 4.7 trillion rubles.

    Despite the growth of savings, in the middle of last year, Russians gradually began to move away from the savings model of behavior, noted earlier in the Central Bank. This is evidenced by the data of Rosstat. If in the first half of 2017 the population postponed an average of 200 billion rubles a month, then in the second half the rate slowed and the average amount of savings amounted to 150 billion rubles a month.

    One of the reasons for the increase in the total savings of Russians is the increase in real wages. According to Rosstat, in January-November their level rose by 3.2%. The salary of social workers has increased most, the Economic Picture for January prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development emphasizes. Only in the first nine months of last year, their salaries increased by 10%.

    "Wage growth rates again updated the maximum since the beginning of the second quarter of 2016. According to preliminary estimates, the increase in real wages in November, as in October, was 5.4% year on year, "the document says.

    The growth of wages is facilitated by the situation in the labor market. In connection with the demographic crisis of the 1990s, the number of the able-bodied population is now declining in Russia. The deficit of qualified personnel is observed in many industries. Since the number of vacancies exceeds the demand for them, salaries are also increasing.

    Another reason for increasing the savings of Russians is the favorable deposit rates. They remain interesting for the population, even despite their decline following the key rate of the Central Bank. So says the head of the Macroeconomics and Finance of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting Dmitry Belousov.

    - The population is lured to banks by rates on deposits. Yes, they declined over the year, but still remained attractive. There is no outflow of deposits, - said Dmitry Belousov. - In addition, last year the regions massively carried out the May decrees of the President on raising salaries to the average in the region.

    Deposit rates in the top 10 banks declined from 8% at the beginning of the year to 7.4% in the second half of December, the Central Bank said.


    Director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics, Georgy Ostapkovic, considers the growth of household savings as a positive factor for the economy.

    - When the accumulation increases for a rainy day, the economy develops. Money is mostly kept in banks, which then send them to lending to businesses. Business invests funds borrowed into its production, thereby increasing GDP, "explained Georgy Ostapkovic.

    Real wages will continue to increase further, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. Their growth in 2018 will be 3.9%, according to the agency's forecast. However, experts see this as a risk. If earnings grow at a faster pace than productivity growth, then it will create inflationary pressures. Labor productivity this year will increase by 2.2%, predicted in the Ministry of Economic Development.




    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:26 am

    30 trillion rouble of deposit is ~ $500 billion USD.

    Likely the low inflation ( 2-3 % ) and attractive back deposit ( 7-8 % ) with the secure nature of these deposit that gurantees returns means FD are very attractive to Russians now.

    Hope these can use this money for development works in Russia and dont stay there and CB will end up paying high interest rate for years.

    par far

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  par far on Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:01 pm

    Austin wrote:Russians have accumulated almost 30 trillion rubles

    Citizens still trust their money to banks more

    https://iz.ru/697226/inna-grigoreva/rossiiane-nakopili-pochti-30-trln-rublei

    Over the past year, the ruble accumulation of Russians increased by almost 14%, which exceeds inflation by 5.5 times. According to Rosstat, the volume of savings reached a record amount of almost 30 trillion rubles. Most of the money the population keeps on bank deposits - almost 20 trillion rubles, the smaller - in securities and cash - about 10 trillion. The accumulation of citizens increased due to the growth of real wages and favorable rates on deposits.

    Russians at the beginning of December 2017 increased their savings to 29.5 trillion rubles. This is stated in the Rosstat data, which Izvestia got acquainted with. The growth was 13.9%, while last year's inflation was only 2.5%.

    Most of all, Russian citizens trust their money to banks. The volume of deposits amounted to 19.6 trillion rubles (excluding foreign currency deposits). In cash, Russians - 5 trillion rubles, and in securities - 4.7 trillion rubles.

    Despite the growth of savings, in the middle of last year, Russians gradually began to move away from the savings model of behavior, noted earlier in the Central Bank. This is evidenced by the data of Rosstat. If in the first half of 2017 the population postponed an average of 200 billion rubles a month, then in the second half the rate slowed and the average amount of savings amounted to 150 billion rubles a month.

    One of the reasons for the increase in the total savings of Russians is the increase in real wages. According to Rosstat, in January-November their level rose by 3.2%. The salary of social workers has increased most, the Economic Picture for January prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development emphasizes. Only in the first nine months of last year, their salaries increased by 10%.

    "Wage growth rates again updated the maximum since the beginning of the second quarter of 2016. According to preliminary estimates, the increase in real wages in November, as in October, was 5.4% year on year, "the document says.

    The growth of wages is facilitated by the situation in the labor market. In connection with the demographic crisis of the 1990s, the number of the able-bodied population is now declining in Russia. The deficit of qualified personnel is observed in many industries. Since the number of vacancies exceeds the demand for them, salaries are also increasing.

    Another reason for increasing the savings of Russians is the favorable deposit rates. They remain interesting for the population, even despite their decline following the key rate of the Central Bank. So says the head of the Macroeconomics and Finance of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting Dmitry Belousov.

    - The population is lured to banks by rates on deposits. Yes, they declined over the year, but still remained attractive. There is no outflow of deposits, - said Dmitry Belousov. - In addition, last year the regions massively carried out the May decrees of the President on raising salaries to the average in the region.

    Deposit rates in the top 10 banks declined from 8% at the beginning of the year to 7.4% in the second half of December, the Central Bank said.


    Director of the Center for Market Research at the Higher School of Economics, Georgy Ostapkovic, considers the growth of household savings as a positive factor for the economy.

    - When the accumulation increases for a rainy day, the economy develops. Money is mostly kept in banks, which then send them to lending to businesses. Business invests funds borrowed into its production, thereby increasing GDP, "explained Georgy Ostapkovic.

    Real wages will continue to increase further, according to the Ministry of Economic Development. Their growth in 2018 will be 3.9%, according to the agency's forecast. However, experts see this as a risk. If earnings grow at a faster pace than productivity growth, then it will create inflationary pressures. Labor productivity this year will increase by 2.2%, predicted in the Ministry of Economic Development.





    “the number of the able-bodied population is now declining in Russia.” This is bad, it means the Russian population is going down.

    Svyatoslavich

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Svyatoslavich on Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:54 pm

    par far wrote:“the number of the able-bodied population is now declining in Russia.” This is bad, it means the Russian population is going down.
    It is temporary and was expected due to the huge decline of births in the 1990's. Anyway, in about 15 years it will pass, people who were born 10 years ago (when there was a mini baby-boom) will be on reproductive age, and the population will grow strongly again.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Kimppis on Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:30 pm

    Working age population declining is totally inevitable. The surprisingly steep decline in fertility rates last year was a global phenomenon. And Russian population is still growing due to immigration. Death rate is also still going down quite rapidly, which indicates considerable improvements in health indicators.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  kvs on Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:45 pm

    Austin wrote:




    Where is the super-recession?   It looks like the 2013 was as bad as 2014 and that was before any sanctions and ruble devaluation.    
    This graph is very revealing.  It says that the population is not suffering from the west's financial and sanctions war.   In fact, it
    looks like NATO is having almost no effect on Russian prosperity.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Kimppis on Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:16 pm

    Russia’s car industry, machine-building show fastest growth in 2017

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/986013

    - Russia’s heavy engineering and power engineering industries grew by 10-15% in 2017

    - The pharmaceutical industry posted the growth of 12%

    - Other sectors - such as aviation industry, chemical industry, wood-processing industry and textile industry - have posted the growth of 4-8% in 2017




    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Austin on Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:27 am

    The external debt of the Russian Federation in 2017 increased to $ 529.1 billion

    http://www.interfax.ru/business/596215
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:27 am

    Probably has to do with the bonds they sold last year.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  kvs on Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:51 pm

    Austin wrote:The external debt of the Russian Federation in 2017 increased to $ 529.1 billion

    http://www.interfax.ru/business/596215

    Therefore the Russian GDP increased accordingly.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  Kimppis on Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:20 pm

    https://www.rt.com/business/416636-russia-ruble-dollar-dependence/

    Russian ruble prepared for global expansion as dollar dependency drops

    - The Russian currency is seeking to compete with the US dollar in trade with the Eurasian Economic Union and CIS countries

    - Ruble transactions in the EEU are currently worth the equivalent of US$69 billion, compared to US$18 billion and US$5 billion in euros

    - In the last six years, the share of ruble settlements in the EEU has increased from 56 to 75 percent, while the share of the dollar has decreased from 35 to 19 percent

    - Russia is in negotiations with numerous countries, in particular Turkey, Egypt and Iran

    - In Russian-Indian trade, the share of foreign currencies, mostly the dollar, has dropped from 96 to 80 percent

    - Moscow and Beijing have increased the share of ruble-yuan trade from 13 to 16 percent in the matter of a year





    https://www.rt.com/business/416624-russia-record-gold-reserves/

    Russian gold reserves hit historic high, stockpiling record 223 tons last year

    - The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) added 300,000 ounces (9.3 tons) of gold to its reserves in December, bringing the total yearly holdings to a record 1,838.211 tons, worth over $76 billion in monetary terms

    - Russia may dethrone China as the fifth-largest bullion holder as early as the first quarter of 2018. Chinese gold reserves currently stand at 1,842 tons (almost certainly BS, in reality Chinese reserves are probably larger, but anyway...)

    - Acquisitions of the precious metal by Russia reached a record 223 tons last year, accounting for 17.7 percent of overall Russian reserves
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    medo

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #9

    Post  medo on Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:01 pm

    So, at the end of this year Russia will have more than 2.000 tons of gold, if they keep buying gold with this tempo. russia

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