Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+59
auslander
Tsavo Lion
william.boutros
higurashihougi
ultimatewarrior
nomadski
SeigSoloyvov
ult
VARGR198
Hole
Firebird
Hannibal Barca
dino00
Regular
Nibiru
LMFS
d_taddei2
littlerabbit
PapaDragon
George1
Ispan
franco
The-thing-next-door
Teshub
Isos
Vann7
KoTeMoRe
ATLASCUB
flamming_python
TheArmenian
onwiththewar
Unknown90
Walther von Oldenburg
Godric
GustavoHF
Project Canada
Enera
AlfaT8
Cowboy's daughter
marat
zorobabel
Khepesh
Russian Patriot
OminousSpudd
Karl Haushofer
Cyberspec
medo
Aristonicus
Rodion_Romanovic
miketheterrible
JohninMK
Big_Gazza
KiloGolf
kvs
Tingsay
BM-21
par far
Benya
Neutrality
63 posters

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Walther von Oldenburg
    Walther von Oldenburg


    Posts : 1600
    Points : 1713
    Join date : 2015-01-23
    Age : 33
    Location : Oldenburg

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:19 pm

    The.photo is a small part of a larger one that also includes Porky. Was posted on his official profile btw.
    higurashihougi
    higurashihougi


    Posts : 3011
    Points : 3098
    Join date : 2014-08-13
    Location : A small and cutie S-shaped land.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  higurashihougi Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:06 pm

    Somewhere in the Donetsk Republic... Embarassed Embarassed

    Otaku in the world, united ! Embarassed Embarassed

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 50328011_10213901579033706_8697331121114841088_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_oc=AQnc1hZSgtigWHR54ZFSR3NmieJHks_DedXZRwRE8NjjAkvRv7wOQoAKcp3l52t-Egc&_nc_ht=scontent.fsgn5-5
    magnumcromagnon
    magnumcromagnon


    Posts : 8138
    Points : 8273
    Join date : 2013-12-05
    Location : Pindos ave., Pindosville, Pindosylvania, Pindostan

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  magnumcromagnon Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:45 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    The Ukrainian flag.

    I would agree, but would also strongly agree if you removed the letter L from the sentence too.

    Can you SS Totenkopf?

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 SS-symbol2

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 330px-3rd_SS_Division_Logo.svg

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS-Totenkopfverb%C3%A4nde

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3rd_SS_Panzer_Division_Totenkopf

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 1547534352_3
    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 38765
    Points : 39261
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  GarryB Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:55 am

    Can you SS Totenkopf?

    Yes, I got that... putting the Ukrainian flag with a nazi symbol... I am sure his grandparents would be proud...

    But as I said the problem is the Ukrainian flag and the Ukrainian fag wearing the nazi symbol...

    But thanks to their brave democratic vote in the UN, the US and the Ukraine voted against a proposal to ban glorification of Nazism...
    Odin of Ossetia
    Odin of Ossetia


    Posts : 859
    Points : 948
    Join date : 2015-07-03

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Odin of Ossetia Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:04 pm

    Odin of Ossetia wrote:
    GarryB wrote:Chaos promotes radicalism...

    They also mentioned those nutters were also training US white supremacists... that is not going to go well I suspect.

    Saw a bit on TV where the instructor told the kids you should not ever point the guns at human beings... but separatists and Russians are not human beings so you should try to shoot them when you can...

    Suspect the white nationalists will replace Russians and separatists with non whites...

    Sad ignorant people.




    That is nothing really new as the Ukrainian nationalists were always very radical.

    During the German occupation at least 95% of all the ethnic Poles they killed were civilians.

    On 9-11 there were less than 3 000 people killed, of all nationalities, and those who carried out the attacks were immediately branded as "terrorists." But if some Ukrainian nationalist gangs kill around 100 000 or perhaps 200 000 ethnic Poles, almost all of them civilians, some Western sources brand these mass murderers as "freedom fighters."

    I wonder how the British would react if someone decided to exterminate that many British somewhere in their colonies.


    http://michalw.narod.ru/index-Truth.html


    It is ironic that the genociders of a White nationality like the Poles, are now training the so-called "white nationalists" who in reality are a bunch of Anglo nationalists.






    And I think I need to specify that there was no such thing as "armed civilians."

    During the German occupation there was a death penalty for all ethnic Poles who had a gun without permission of the Germans.

    Also, all killed Polish partisans and members of the self-defence units are not counted as Polish civilian losses in the Polish sources, since they are actually included in the military fatalities. UPA actually killed rather few of these, since armed people are much more difficult to kill than an unarmed population.

    So yes, overwhelming majority of the ethnic Poles killed by the UPA were unarmed defenseless civilians.

    The same was true for all the other Ukrainian nationalist formations.




    Ispan
    Ispan


    Posts : 643
    Points : 655
    Join date : 2015-07-10
    Age : 47
    Location : Madrid

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Ispan Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:45 am

    Brief update:

    I have been away since before Christmas due to surgery of a shoulder injury and I am still recovering.

    The December offensive was cancelled yet again, and Poroshenko is running out of time.

    There was another relative lull until mid january, and things are heating up again.

    Sadly, my estimates about casualties seem to be approximately accurate, several thousands killed and injured per year in 2016-2018. Both sides are exhausted.

    For details , go read my blog, again I apologize for not being able to retell everything in english, but google translate or yandex work quite well for Spanish-English. I recommend Yandex for reading russian sites.

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2019/02/05/noticias-de-la-guerra-05-02-2019/
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14504
    Points : 14639
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:44 pm

    Missed your comments. Hope your shoulder heals quickly, it can be a real nuisance. Here is your latest Yandexed. Looks like both sides are burning off lots of ammo.

    5 February, 2019 Zhukov

    30 January

    Interesting interview with garbage says the war could end this year

    http://antimaydan.info/2019/01/eduard_basurin_v_ekskluzivnom_intervu_komsomolke_nazval_vozmozhnuu_datu.html

    Meanwhile on the front the war is in a frozen phase, statements by marine correspondent Kharkova,

    http://antimaydan.info/2019/01/marina_harkova_podmorozhennaya_faza_vojny.html



    Among other interesting things, it gives an idea of the hardness of the struggle is that most Novorussian soldiers are injured recovered, that is have been wounded at some point, some times several times. It is not good because it confirms the limited resources in men, but it is another indication that confirms the correctness of the estimates I have been making, the casualties are counted by thousands every year of trench warfare, and they already match or exceed those of 2014-2015 only for pure accumulation.

    For you to understand if the Novorussian fighters are about 40,000 men and half have been injured at least once that gives 20,000 wounded in four years of war positions. If added to that is a pessimistic proportion of one dead for every four wounded, that would be 25,000 casualties in 2015-2018. If most of the casualties were in 2014-2015, for the years 2016-2018 that gives about 5,000 casualties a year, to which we would have to add a thousand deaths, and another thousand serious injuries not recoverable.

    In the ranks of the enemy, in the best of cases, ukrainians are suffering the double of casualties, or the ten thousand year war trench that was estimated in previous years. The shortage of troops and the successive cams confirm that my calculations are fairly close to reality.

    As a confirmation, on the Ukrainian side, it is news that a brigade (72) has been withdrawn from the front because in the face of the impossibility of replenishing losses and desertions it has fallen below 40% of its strength.

    There are two months left for the elections in Ukraine and a probable shift of power. Either Poroshenko is paralyzed with impotence in his palace like Hitler in the bunker and doesn't know what to do, or he has a plan to perpetuate himself in power in any way.

    The war, if there's any luck, could end this year, for lack of ammunition, men and money to continue it. They could lengthen the agony until 2020, but as soon as gas transit through Ukraine stops, it's over.



    Front reports: January-February

    Brief notes from the front, after a :

    In the last couple of weeks the struggle hardens, every day is sad because people die who didn't deserve this war.

    On January 14, four Novorussian dead. Only in the Lugansk sector and let it be known.

    27 January, 4 Dead, 5 wounded. Ukros also have losses.

    3 February

    A couple of days ago, the ukros opened a breach in the front next to Staromikhalovka, entered between two hills of rubble (the land cones of the mines) . Officer novoruso in charge at this point, he just ran away. The Novorussian soldiers were left alone that morning, urgently asking for help from the artillery, which opened fire. The gap was blocked, but after suffering casualties.

    The officer took off with his bags to Rostov in Russia. What a shame…

    5 February

    Ukrainian attacks have increased markedly before the elections, are believed to cause novorusians to respond, and in the face of the worsening Porochenko may soon declare martial law again, but already throughout the country. So avoid elections.

    I think Porko has the generals on his side, after all if the regime falls, they will be held accountable for their war crimes. The only solution to remain in power is war and dictatorship.

    “In the Republic of Lugansk we have many wounded these days, in Stakhanov hospital there are no beds anymore, the minor wounded are sent directly home.”

    Wounded arrive to Kalinovo, Frunze, Zhelobok. Of all Krasnodarskaya Duga.”

    The enemy uses drones to correct artillery firing. The villages on the front line are already razed, there are hardly any houses left standing after years of bombing

    "Donetsky is already in ruins, Sifonka completely erased from the map.”

    “A last neighbor of this village I know had to flee to a friend of hers in Kirovsky (Donetsk), her home is the last one standing at the moment. His exact words about the ukros " these three days seem like rabid dogs that escaped from the cage”

    “There is no quiet moment, either they use heavy artillery or grenade launchers, light weapons every minute. In official news, this doesn't come out.”

    Strong battles across the front.

    They don't stop, against Staromikhalovka 30 shots with BMP-2



    These are official reports of explosions and gunfire, as always of astonishing accuracy and very limited: actually the exchange of gunfire is much greater than reported.

    17.40 H-Spartak, 29 AGS-17 grenades, large-caliber machine guns and small arms.
    17.45 h-Donetsk (Airport), 5 shots fired from SPG-9.
    18.25 H-Staromikhaylovka, 30 shots fired from BMP-2.
    18.40 H-Donetsk (Trudovskaya district), with 1 shot from SPG-9, heavy machine guns and light weapons.
    18.40 H-Leninskoe, with 5 SPG-9 shots, heavy machine guns and light weapons.
    19.05 h-Donetsk (Volvo-Center), with 1 120 mm calibre projectile, heavy machine guns and small arms.
    19.00-Kominternovo, with 2 rounds of 120 mm calibre.
    19.15-Leninskoe, with three SPG-9 shots.
    Walther von Oldenburg
    Walther von Oldenburg


    Posts : 1600
    Points : 1713
    Join date : 2015-01-23
    Age : 33
    Location : Oldenburg

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:14 pm

    How much money is Ukraine going to lose in gas transit fees this year?
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14504
    Points : 14639
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:27 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How much money is Ukraine going to lose in gas transit fees this year?
    The contract ends on the 31st December this year so probably not a lot, but next year............
    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 38765
    Points : 39261
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  GarryB Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:28 am

    There is always the risk that the west will demand some gas transit down the ukrainian pipe so they get subsidised by the EU... politics at work as usual... but then it will be EU countries subsidising the Ukraine this time though...
    flamming_python
    flamming_python


    Posts : 8988
    Points : 9050
    Join date : 2012-01-30

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  flamming_python Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:21 pm

    GarryB wrote:There is always the risk that the west will demand some gas transit down the ukrainian pipe so they get subsidised by the EU... politics at work as usual... but then it will be EU countries subsidising the Ukraine this time though...

    Merkel already demanded some post-2019 Russian gas transit through Ukraine, in return for supporting Nord Stream 2. And we agreed.

    Putin should have told the old hag to her face - that she needs the gas as much as we need to sell it. If not more. And that the Ukraine and its finances are your problem to solve, not ours.
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14504
    Points : 14639
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK Thu Feb 07, 2019 2:27 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    GarryB wrote:There is always the risk that the west will demand some gas transit down the ukrainian pipe so they get subsidised by the EU... politics at work as usual... but then it will be EU countries subsidising the Ukraine this time though...

    Merkel already demanded some post-2019 Russian gas transit through Ukraine, in return for supporting Nord Stream 2. And we agreed.

    Putin should have told the old hag to her face - that she needs the gas as much as we need to sell it. If not more. And that the Ukraine and its finances are your problem to solve, not ours.
    Until the southern pipeline route up from Turkstream is completed through Bulgaria/Serbia there will have to be gas through Ukraine for south/central Europe.

    Oh, and reverse flow of by then non Russian gas back to Ukraine. Laughing Laughing

    Quite how long the Russian agreement with Merkel is for I don't know but after those EU countries are sorted its probably the Devil take the hindmost, sorry Kiev that's you. Up front cash or no direct gas. They could still get it through Turkstream and pay lots of transit charges I suppose.
    Ispan
    Ispan


    Posts : 643
    Points : 655
    Join date : 2015-07-10
    Age : 47
    Location : Madrid

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Ispan Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:58 pm

    Heavy mortar bombardment from 0830 and lasting for 10 hours, and counting today, all along the front intense fighting.

    Also a report published today seems to indicate the Ukrainian regime was given "go ahead" signal for the attack

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2019/02/14/parte-de-guerra-14-02-2019/
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14504
    Points : 14639
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:48 pm

    From link above

    14 February, 2019 Zhukov

    General situation:

    This report today gives an account of preparations for an attack, and Russian manoeuvres in response.

    https://topwar.ru/154013-na-spjaschij-kreml-ne-nadejtes-chem-auknulis-kievu-tenevye-rejsy-globmasterov-i-perebroska-pionov.html

    Summarize:

    Arrival of American cargo aircraft at Kiev airport with war material, possibly anti-tank missiles and artillery observation drones

    American reconnaissance flights over Transdnistria, something very disturbing given the tensions in Moldova

    Inflammatory rhetoric and accusations against Russia of “fueling the conflict” at the meeting of the UN Security Council devoted to Ukraine and the Minsk accords. The disturbing thing is that the German representative aligned himself with the US, in what appears to be a combined maneuver to give carte blanche to the Ukrainian command for its offensive.

    In response to these provocations, and the deployment on the part of the Ukrainian heavy guns of 203mm Pion, in Donbas, the russians have responded with military exercises in the Rostov region, marches, long-distance mechanized units and exercises of paratroopers.

    The general struggle has worsened over the last 15 days, as was said at the previous entrance. This morning a mass bombardment began at 0830 with 82mm and 120mm mortars along the entire front.

    http://antimaydan.info/2019/02/soobsheniya_opolcheniya_ot_14_fevralya_2019_g_obnovlyaetsya.html

    The number of explosions is much, much higher than in the official Parts, which officially speak of four and a half tons of ammunition fired in the last month, (sic) as official reports speak of 250 rapes, and which have counted 2,800 shots you see the enormity of the lie, a single 82mm mortar bomb weighs 3 kilos. I would actually multiply the real figure by a hundred at best, because in this war thousands and even tens of thousands of tons of ammunition have been fired. 500 tons of shells of all calibers in a single month would be a modest figure. Although it's also true that the artillery barely fires and that goes way down the average.

    Civilians living near the front say it's like 2015, confirming the intensity of the bombing.



    Situation at 1830

    The enemy has been bombing for 10 hours straight, mostly 120mm heavy mortar fire. On the whole front of the Donbass situation is very serious, much destruction and inevitable casualties.

    Heavy cannon and prolonged intense battles at Yasinovataya, Avdeyevka industrial area. Ukrainians use tanks and fire with self-propelled artillery (SAU). They even fired Grad rockets at Spartak. His forces concentrated in the last few days in Avdeyevka for an attack on the northwest border of Donetsk.

    The novorusos this time respond to the fire with everything they have.

    Ukrainians bombard blocks of flats in Lugansk villages, the population has been ordered to turn off the lights because Ukrainians fire on the illuminated floors.
    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 38765
    Points : 39261
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  GarryB Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:37 am

    Merkel already demanded some post-2019 Russian gas transit through Ukraine, in return for supporting Nord Stream 2. And we agreed.

    Putin should have told the old hag to her face - that she needs the gas as much as we need to sell it. If not more. And that the Ukraine and its finances are your problem to solve, not ours.

    They might have agreed to transit gas through there but did they promise to keep the price the same?

    Add a fee to the gas going through the Ukraine that covers the transit fee paid to the Ukraine so the users of gas going through the ukraine are paying the transit fees and it does not come out of Russian pockets.

    Ispan
    Ispan


    Posts : 643
    Points : 655
    Join date : 2015-07-10
    Age : 47
    Location : Madrid

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Ispan Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:14 pm


    Latest update, intense shelling and shooting, that goes unreported but not unnoticed by OSCE and Russian FM, casualties estimated at 50-100 a day in both sides.

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2019/02/20/noticias-de-la-guerra-20-02-2019/
    auslander
    auslander


    Posts : 1637
    Points : 1715
    Join date : 2015-04-25

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  auslander Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:00 am

    Ispan wrote:
    Latest update, intense shelling and shooting, that goes unreported but not unnoticed by OSCE and Russian FM, casualties estimated at 50-100 a day in both sides.

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2019/02/20/noticias-de-la-guerra-20-02-2019/

    Your reports are of great interest and factual. We see an increasing number of wounded coming to our shores to convaless. The vast majority have served from the first year of the war and most have been wounded more than once.
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14504
    Points : 14639
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:48 pm

    Ispan wrote:
    Latest update, intense shelling and shooting, that goes unreported but not unnoticed by OSCE and Russian FM, casualties estimated at 50-100 a day in both sides.

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2019/02/20/noticias-de-la-guerra-20-02-2019/

    20 February, 2019 Zhukov
    Report of the Russian Ministry of foreign affairs, between the lines it is recognized that in the last two weeks the war of positions has reached levels of violence as in similar peaks of previous years. The war is not yet over and continues, it does not reach the extremes of previous battles as in Avdeveka and Svetlodarsk but there are dozens of casualties every day.

    Комментарий Департамента информации и печати МИД России о ситуации в Донбассе

    Dimensional analysis:
    The OSCE, which is blind and deaf and dumb, recognizes 10,000 (10,000) ceasefire violations in the last two weeks. Paradoxically, they are reporting more truthfully than the novorusian command itself, which conceals the intensity of the struggle, and many commanders of militia units hide the casualties, for the very banal reason of collecting the wages and rations of the dead a few more days.

    That gives us about 700 bombings and gun exchanges a day. Applying the empirical and proven rule that only about 10% of the shots hurt or kill someone, that would give about 70 casualties per day. Or redodying down, about 50 dead and wounded on both sides.

    Reports from the front confirm this approach

    Сообщения ополчения от 19 февраля 2019 г.

    Here the reports of blogger Marina Kharkova confirm that only yesterday, in a handshake in the Svetlodarsk sector, the Novorussians lost 4 Dead and 1 prisoner. And other reports in the previous days from other sources confirm this: there are several deaths every day in the Donetsk sector. A dozen dead a day adding up Lugansk, and twice as many wounded already Plant us in 30 casualties a day. Assuming that those of the ukros are at least the same, we easily reach the average of 70 Daily casualties projected on the basis of OSCE reports.

    M. K. confirms that it is not only mortar fire the enemy for the fourth consecutive day employs 122 and 152mm artillery, nothing is said in the official reports.

    A hundred casualties a day is the average of this low-intensity war. As has happened throughout all the previous years, will appear confirmation of the hardness of the combats for the arrival of wounded to the hospitals of the rear-guard of ukraine, once the hospitals front are full of wounded.

    Now let's put the figures in perspective.

    Four dead a day seems insignificant. But that's over a hundred dead a month. Many wounded, not all, recover and return to the front after a few months, but the dead no longer return. After five years of war and tens of thousands of casualties, the human resources of both sides are already at the limit, not because the casualties are very high but because of the small relative size of the armies involved and the difficulty of obtaining replacements. Losing not just a battalion, but a single company, leaves gaps on the front that are difficult to cover. M. K.'s calculations and statements a couple of weeks ago, the situation is still not critical but worrying. If this were to continue, Donbass defenders would need to resort to compulsory mobilization or wait for more volunteers from Russia to arrive.

    The only consolation is that on the Ukrainian side things are not better. If there were reports last year that many units had only half of their strength, there are now reports that some units are only one third of their strength. Kiev has launched into the fight the battalions of paramilitaries whose combative effectiveness is poor or mediocre and whose main task was that of occupation and rear troops. In part this is due to the desire cynical Poroshenko of these militias, a constant threat to his power, made to kill and are left weakened and unable to give a coup, but also confirm that you are the only stocks that will remain at the helm of ukraine, given the wear and tear, and demoralization of the regular units.
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14504
    Points : 14639
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:07 pm

    Perhaps it is now clearer than in the past couple of years that this is a war of attrition that Kiev (perhaps with advice from outsiders) believes (given the disparity in population sizes) is the way to win without provoking Russia into action by striking east in force.
    Walther von Oldenburg
    Walther von Oldenburg


    Posts : 1600
    Points : 1713
    Join date : 2015-01-23
    Age : 33
    Location : Oldenburg

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:31 pm

    It is unwinnable for Ukies. There are enough volunteers from Russia, Belarus and other countries to fill the ranks. And it is Ukraine that is losing milions of people to emigration, not Russia.
    kvs
    kvs


    Posts : 15047
    Points : 15184
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Turdope's Kanada

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  kvs Sun Feb 24, 2019 7:27 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    GarryB wrote:There is always the risk that the west will demand some gas transit down the ukrainian pipe so they get subsidised by the EU... politics at work as usual... but then it will be EU countries subsidising the Ukraine this time though...

    Merkel already demanded some post-2019 Russian gas transit through Ukraine, in return for supporting Nord Stream 2. And we agreed.

    Putin should have told the old hag to her face - that she needs the gas as much as we need to sell it. If not more. And that the Ukraine and its finances are your problem to solve, not ours.

    He does not need to tell it to her face. He just needs to make facts on the ground when the pipeline is operational. There
    are lots of solid reasons to stop any gas transit and number one is that the pipeline infrastructure operated by Ukrs is in a state
    of terminal rot. Why should Russia ventilate its gas through these corroding sieves? Nobody will have any smear that will
    stick. Banging the shoe on the podium has negative value.
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14504
    Points : 14639
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:52 pm

    kvs wrote:

    He does not need to tell it to her face.  He just needs to make facts on the ground when the pipeline is operational.    There
    are lots of solid reasons to stop any gas transit and number one is that the pipeline infrastructure operated by Ukrs is in a state
    of terminal rot.   Why should Russia ventilate its gas through these corroding sieves?    Nobody will have any smear that will
    stick.    Banging the shoe on the podium has negative value.  

    Fortunately for the political situation there will need to be gas transit for a while yet as the 'SouthStream' route, now via Turkey, will not be complete for a while. I don't have a completion date for the Bulgarian section. This allows Merkel and Putin to play happy UE/Ukraine families and say that the transit contract will continue albeit at a much reduced throughput.

    Then once everything has died down and the two new pipelines are up and running, they can close the valves and let Ukraine's pipes rot in peace.
    VARGR198
    VARGR198


    Posts : 633
    Points : 639
    Join date : 2015-08-09

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  VARGR198 Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:54 am

    ATLASCUB
    ATLASCUB


    Posts : 1154
    Points : 1158
    Join date : 2017-02-13

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  ATLASCUB Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:07 pm

    I often read comments regarding Nordstream 2 with the insinuation that its creation is somehow a gift by Germany to Russia or a geopolitical concession with regards to Ukraine (in so far as it's alluded to Germany supposedly letting Ukraine "rot" by looking out for itself).

    This can't be further from truth. Germany is lock, stock and barrel deep into the Ukranian project, ultimately its disintegration for easier assimilation of its parts into the Western block at the expense of Russia, just like the absorption of former USSR states into the EU, the desolution of former Yugoslavia etc...

    Hemorrhaging former Russian frontiers of the past is an ongoing and fluid process with no signs of letting up. Meanwhile both the Anglo Empires frontiers and the German frontiers are relatively undamaged and intact - able to prosper unimpeded (by the success or failure of its leaders)... relatively foreign pressure free. Russia on the other hand, I don't think anything has to be said about this.

    I don't think the level of criminal incompetence, outright treason to its own people, by the late Russian leadership of the USSR can be put into proper terms. For they are so many...

    Russia and Germany are NOT friends. The relationship within Europe can only co-exist in so far as one being subordinate to the whims of other in some form (no such thing as a rule of 2). The failure of the newborns of post WW2 order to instill on the younger Russian generations(and thinkers) the classical strategic thinking required to keep the eye of the ball is paying dividends. Russia and Germany competing in Europe will always be a constant and in a great number of cases, a zero-sum game.

    Russians at large have not been paying attention to Germany closely enough (or seriously enough - to their own detriment - underestimating enemies - or mistaking them for friends - costly business) after the desolution of the USSR. Germany wages war by other means and surprisingly, giving the decadence of Russia's elite, to extreme success. Wars of deceit have paid dividends where war of blunt force, pride and bravado have failed.

    Would I blame Putin's efforts for the failure of generations of Russian leaders? No... but responding way too late to what has been brewing all along under their nose, with their direct knowledge is incompetence. Everyone says Ukraine was the last straw..... "Russia's eyes are open now"... (as if they were closed before - more like choosing to fiddle thumbs and look the other way, feeling impotent to meet their adversaries)....

    Pages of history keep on turning... "Germany as a center of power was finished after WW2" "Never to rebound".... I also read that a lot.
    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 38765
    Points : 39261
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  GarryB Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:45 am

    If you look at the actions of Russia they seem to be weak and conciliatory... to the west in general and the US and Germany in particular, but I rather suspect they worked out some time ago that the west was never going to accept them on equal terms and to be a fawning sycophant like the EU are to the US is simply not an option for a Russia no run by a drunk.

    Russia has been building pipelines to supply the EU... hundreds of years ago it was Britain supplying opium to China, now it is Russia supplying energy to the EU, but with their other hand they are building transport networks... just like China is doing throughout the area to create "silk roads" from Asia to the EU.

    They want to become a critical infrastructure of the west to Asia... an energy supplier to both the EU and Asia... but all the while build and grow themselves and their economy.

    The Americans are scared because these silk roads wont affect US trade with either Asia or the EU, which will remain what they are, whereas links between Asia and the EU will become much cheaper and much faster... why trade with the US who swings a big stick and demands its own terms on everything and ignores international law when it suits them... they are not a good trade partner... the only reason you trade with them is because they have a lot of money... but it is only printed paper... they have less and less substance to back it up...

    You are quite right the west sees Russia as a rival and not a potential ally or friend... but that is their loss... countries in the middle east are wanting to talk to Russians and include Russians in negotiations... they don't want Americans there...

    BTW there are new contracts for high speed trains in Russia coming up and I very much hope they go to China instead of Germany... China has plenty of experience with high speed trains and would be much easier to work with... a huge contract with Germany would be seized upon as a juicy target by the US congress anyway... and they would fold like a bitch.

    Sponsored content


    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27 - Page 31 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:57 pm