Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


    Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Share

    JohninMK

    Posts : 4892
    Points : 4955
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  JohninMK on Fri May 19, 2017 11:37 pm

    calm wrote:
    Crazy Houthis in Yemen
    check here - http://www.russiadefence.net/t4766p675-yemeni-conflict-news-2#194483
    Thanks
    avatar
    calm

    Posts : 1245
    Points : 1247
    Join date : 2015-12-19
    Location : Serbia

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  calm on Sat May 20, 2017 12:58 am

    SAA will not strike Tanaf base from ground or air to allow US SOF to withdrew safely ,however will keep advancing
    https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/865702411507257344
    avatar
    ultimatewarrior

    Posts : 102
    Points : 104
    Join date : 2016-09-19

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sat May 20, 2017 1:15 am

    calm wrote:SAA will not strike Tanaf base from ground or air to allow US SOF to withdrew safely ,however will keep advancing
    https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/865702411507257344

    They have aerial cover from Syrian air force even though Russia refuses to deliver MiG-29M2 Syria paid for before 2011. Russians are scared of America. Syrians are NOT.
    avatar
    KomissarBojanchev

    Posts : 1179
    Points : 1332
    Join date : 2012-08-05
    Age : 19
    Location : Varna, Bulgaria

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  KomissarBojanchev on Sat May 20, 2017 1:30 am

    it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.
    Why is it lunacy for the legitimate government of Syria and affiliated forces from capturing land inside Syria?

    The US should fuck off, and if they don't, Russia should make them fuck off.

    par far

    Posts : 1450
    Points : 1607
    Join date : 2014-06-26

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  par far on Sat May 20, 2017 2:11 am

    "SYRIAN ARMY IS IN 20 KM FROM AL-TANF TOWN CONTROLLED BY US-LED FORCES – REPORTS."

    "The SAA also captured the Khabrat Zarkaa area south of the Damascus-Baghdad road. Kharbat Zarrkkaa is located i about 50 km from the al-Tanf border crossing. According to pro-government sources, Russian Su-30 fighters escorted government forces in the area."

    I am going to guess that means SU 30SM.


    http://cdn.airplane-pictures.net/images/uploaded-images/2015/3/21/537592.jpg




    https://southfront.org/syrian-army-is-in-20-km-from-al-tanf-town-controlled-by-us-led-forces-reports/


    Last edited by par far on Sat May 20, 2017 2:18 am; edited 1 time in total
    avatar
    calm

    Posts : 1245
    Points : 1247
    Join date : 2015-12-19
    Location : Serbia

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  calm on Sat May 20, 2017 2:15 am

    KomissarBojanchev wrote:
    it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.
    Why is it lunacy for the legitimate government of Syria and affiliated forces from capturing land inside Syria?

    We all know who are the lunatics/fanatics. That have nothing to do with SAA and taking over land.

    avatar
    PapaDragon

    Posts : 5291
    Points : 5397
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  PapaDragon on Sat May 20, 2017 2:39 am

    calm wrote:Axis Of resistance and other jihadists do not care about some airstrikes. Americans get ready suicidal Shias are coming toward Tanaf.
    Cous what to expect from this guys, and they are marching toward Tanaf. So yeah, it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.

    .........


    So they are suicidal when they need to wage Jihad for a piece of empty desert but not when they need to save their own civilians? Then they run like rabbits?

    Classy... Rolling Eyes

    Well whatever it takes get the Deir ez Zorr offensive finally going I guess...

    Also on that pic it says "DOWN..." with what?
    avatar
    eehnie

    Posts : 1400
    Points : 1425
    Join date : 2015-05-13

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  eehnie on Sat May 20, 2017 2:57 am

    par far wrote:
    eehnie wrote:
    par far wrote:
    eehnie wrote:
    par far wrote:
    calm wrote:Only thing Russia can do is to mistakenly bomb al-Tanf, again. But it's looks like Russia wasn't involve in this offensive. So SAA is alone? We will see...


    US confirmation of a strike on Syrian Military near Al-Tanf in Syria


    Russia will involved in this.

    I expect the same, but at the right time. The right timing is very important. It is a very difficult goal to achieve, the battle would be very hard just now.


    What time do think will be right eehnie? We know that Russian Special Forces are already embedded with the SAA in that area and Iran has probably sent unit's to participate in this operation(whenever there are loud calls to put sanctions on Iran, that is when you know Iran is doing something.) The big question is how will the VKS respond? Does anyone have information about how many Fighter Jets Russia has in Syria right now?

    Syria, surely under advice of Russia, selected well the timing to cut the pass of the ISIS with Turkey. To have direct land link between Iran and Syria is not an important reason now, because they achieved it more to the North. The Kurd territory is friendly enough for Iran, for land supplies until Syria.

    http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/a735cf3c-b765-4067-a0d4-7a9de2786811/%E2%80%98Kurdistan-thanks-Iran-for-help-against-IS%E2%80%99

    Kurdistan thanks Iran for help against IS

    ERBIL, Kurdistan Region (Kurdistan24) – There is no doubt that Tehran helped the Kurdistan Region first in 2014 when the Islamic State (IS) attacked the Region, said a senior Kurdish official on Wednesday.

    Following the emergence of IS in June 2014 in northern Iraq, the jihadists started to attack the Kurdistan Region in August.

    On Tuesday, the President of Iran Hassan Rouhani stated in a speech presented in the Kurdish city of Mahabad in Iranian Kurdistan (Rojhalat) that Iran rescued Erbil, the regional capital of the Kurdistan Region from IS.

    He stated that if Iran did not help the Region, Erbil would have fallen under IS control.

    In a statement to Kurdistan24 on Wednesday, the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region Nechirvan Barzani stated that Kurdistan is thankful for Iran’s help.

    “There is no doubt that they [Iran] helped us [Kurdistan Region] at the beginning of Da’esh’s attacks on the Region,” Barzani said, using the Arabic pejorative term for IS.

    “We thank them for the help they provided us,” he continued. “Certainly, the threat was huge when Da’esh attacked the Kurdistan Region.”

    Barzani noted that he did not want to go into detail about whether Erbil would have fallen in the hands of the insurgents if Iran had not helped.

    “All I can say is that we respect their reaction, and we thank them for all the help and support they provided to the Kurdistan Region,” Barzani concluded.

    Kurdistan Region shares over 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) of its border with IS in northern Iraq. Peshmerga forces have been successful in pushing the jihadists back since June 2014, and they have been marked as one of the most efficient ground forces in defeating IS.

    I expect Syria and Russia to select also the right timing in the South. Which conditions can be key for it:

    1.- I expect Syria reinforces its positions before. For it I expect them to continue focused eliminating pockets that require important amounts of troops out of the frontline. I expect also some new unit.

    2.- I expect Syria to try that the place loses part of its strategic importance. Just today, lots of resources of the rebels and their allies will be focused in the defense of the place. How I would expect to achieve it? I expect Syria and Iraq continue winning more territory to the ISIS more to the North, North-East, both by the Syrian side and by the side of Iraq. I think Syria needs before, to reduce the importance of the potential pocket that can be created.

    3.- I expect Syria to advance in the air-space denial for the allies of the opposition in the area (US and more).

    But also I expect Syria and Russia to take some advantage before. I expect Syria and Russia try to reduce the size of the pass, making unsafe and easier to control and to eliminate the convoys that use the pass to reinforce the rebels, including ISIS.

    Good points eehnie, do you think that in the coming weeks, Russia will increase it support for Syria?

    I think Russia has been helping intensely these years in the side of the procurement and the formations of new units, and as consequence the Syrian Armed Forces have an advantage today and will not have a problem of supplies. If you remember, in comment recently I included a list of material retired recently, that likely has been totally moved to Syria (except the part scrapped). If there is something still, must be very few, and would be moved fast.

    But also there is more material that Russia has been retiring these years and which retirement (including of the reserve) will be finnished in the short term. I expect Russia to continue with the procurement at full speed. Also, very likely, the usable part of the following material will be moved to Syria, because Russia has not reason to keep it (again bolded weapons have been present in the war of Syria):

    Be-12
    AT-T
    Yak-38 (There is only some incomplete unit, nothing to reach Syria)
    T-64

    100mm 2A19/2A29 (M)T-12

    And also there is some auxiliary material that can have some combat use in Syria (would not have it in Russia):

    L-39
    Iveco LMV (In Russia, in the future I expect to see them only in the Russian security forces)

    The weapons and vehicles of the last two boxex have been present in the Syrian civil war. Procurement likely ongoing. The procurement of AT-T based engineering vehicles is also very likely, while the procurement of Be-12 (Syria can use them like France used the Bréguet Atlantique 2) and T-64 (after the T-54, T-62 and T-55) can also begin.

    Of course, there is also an intense procurement of the most veteran auxiliary vehicles (transport, utility, non combat engineering,...). The combination of the oldest heavy warfare and auxiliary vehicles and more modern man-portable weapons is giving a good result to Syria. Note that the opposition lacks the heavy warfare, and the strategy of keeping stored the older warfare is giving now the right results to Russia.

    As, resume. If you follow the points that I commented the other points, I expect Russia to keep the very intense procurement, I expect Russia to increase if necessary the effort of formation of new untis, with local people, but also with shii Arabs from other countries and with shii voluntaries from non-Arab countries.

    While we see not stronger heavy warfare provided to the rebels (including ISIS), I do not expect to see increased the presence of combat units of Iran, Russia or other potential countries that can go in. Surely both countries are tracking the presence of heavy warfare in the hands of the rebels. In my opinion, this would be likely the red line.
    avatar
    eehnie

    Posts : 1400
    Points : 1425
    Join date : 2015-05-13

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  eehnie on Sat May 20, 2017 3:10 am

    calm wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    What we seem to have now in Syria is conflict between Russia and Iran.

    Russia wants to secure E.Aleppo and push towards Deir ez Zorr. This will allow them to pretty much secure all pro gov. population centers and then refocus on Idlib.

    There is also matter of principle. They abhor leaving people encircled and besieged.

    Iran on the other hand seem to be focused on fighting completely different war and are using current "truce" in Idlib to try to pull another attempt at securing connection with Lebanon.

    So now we have two currents in Syrian government. Pro Iran and pro Russia.

    This results in Iranians forcing SAA to divert troops towards the south to push their Shia Crescent project and to secure more influence in post war Syria. Which is idiotic on several levels because not only are they incapable of matching Russian muscle but securing Syria like Russia is pushing for will result in connection to Lebanon either way.

    Problem is that this approach will not give them full control afterwards. This results in them diverting SAA into this southern detour while hoping that if SHTF Russia will do their fighting for them. Russia not being stupid simply decided to let them get fucked back to their senses.

    Problem is that this results in operation to lift siege of DeZ being delayed. This is why there are still no big movements on that front yet. Russia managed to to free up troops for this op with those deescalation zones but Iranians, being parasites as usual, immediately started fucking up again.

    And DeZ get to suffer bit longer as a result.

    That's right, nice analysis. thumbsup

    Lol, pure trolling. Pure non-sense. Conceding the Kurds to the US and painting them as opposed to Russia and Iran, worrying by the advance near Israel (see South of Syria). Well, too obvious pro-Israeli propaganda, like always from him.
    avatar
    KomissarBojanchev

    Posts : 1179
    Points : 1332
    Join date : 2012-08-05
    Age : 19
    Location : Varna, Bulgaria

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  KomissarBojanchev on Sat May 20, 2017 3:22 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    calm wrote:Axis Of resistance and other jihadists do not care about some airstrikes. Americans get ready suicidal Shias are coming toward Tanaf.
    Cous what to expect from this guys, and they are marching toward Tanaf. So yeah, it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.

    .........


    So they are suicidal when they need to wage Jihad for a piece of empty desert but not when they need to save their own civilians? Then they run like rabbits?

    Classy... Rolling Eyes

    Well whatever it takes get the Deir ez Zorr offensive finally going I guess...

    Also on that pic it says "DOWN..." with what?

    Killing sunni terrorists that are US backed is protecting civilians. Israel supporting ISIS from air is endangering civilians. Разумеш?
    avatar
    PapaDragon

    Posts : 5291
    Points : 5397
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  PapaDragon on Sat May 20, 2017 4:32 am

    KomissarBojanchev wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    calm wrote:Axis Of resistance and other jihadists do not care about some airstrikes. Americans get ready suicidal Shias are coming toward Tanaf.
    Cous what to expect from this guys, and they are marching toward Tanaf. So yeah, it's understandable why Russia don't want anything with those lunatics.

    .........


    So they are suicidal when they need to wage Jihad for a piece of empty desert but not when they need to save their own civilians? Then they run like rabbits?

    Classy... Rolling Eyes

    Well whatever it takes get the Deir ez Zorr offensive finally going I guess...

    Also on that pic it says "DOWN..." with what?

    Killing sunni terrorists that are US backed is protecting civilians. Israel supporting ISIS from air is endangering civilians. Разумеш?

    There are no civilians down there

    But there are 100k of them in DeZ

    So no I don't understand what the fuck is so important down south that requires those civilians to stay encircled even one hour more than necessary
    avatar
    ultimatewarrior

    Posts : 102
    Points : 104
    Join date : 2016-09-19

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  ultimatewarrior on Sat May 20, 2017 5:17 am

    par far wrote:"SYRIAN ARMY IS IN 20 KM FROM AL-TANF TOWN CONTROLLED BY US-LED FORCES – REPORTS."

    "The SAA also captured the Khabrat Zarkaa area south of the Damascus-Baghdad road. Kharbat Zarrkkaa is located i about 50 km from the al-Tanf border crossing. According to pro-government sources, Russian Su-30 fighters escorted government forces in the area."

    I am going to guess that means SU 30SM.


    http://cdn.airplane-pictures.net/images/uploaded-images/2015/3/21/537592.jpg




    https://southfront.org/syrian-army-is-in-20-km-from-al-tanf-town-controlled-by-us-led-forces-reports/

    I doubt Russia would fly there. Likely MiG-29 of the Syrian air force misreported as Su-30 perhaps.
    avatar
    Cyberspec

    Posts : 1943
    Points : 2108
    Join date : 2011-08-08
    Location : Terra Australis

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  Cyberspec on Sat May 20, 2017 7:28 am

    PapaDragon wrote:So no I don't understand what the fuck is so important down south that requires those civilians to stay encircled even one hour more than necessary

    Opening the Baghdad-Damascus road...pretty important goal don't you agree?

    JohninMK

    Posts : 4892
    Points : 4955
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  JohninMK on Sat May 20, 2017 11:45 am

    Interesting news. This will cause a bit of a shock.

    Ivan Sidorenko h8 hours ago

    #Syria #Homs Report by a Tiger Forces Commander Says Head of Air Force Intelligence in Tell Kalakh & Some #Tiger_Forces Commanders Arrested

    avatar
    miketheterrible

    Posts : 1314
    Points : 1314
    Join date : 2016-11-06

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  miketheterrible on Sat May 20, 2017 11:51 am

    It wont. Many throughout history (most probably) find ways to profit off of major conflicts.

    JohninMK

    Posts : 4892
    Points : 4955
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  JohninMK on Sat May 20, 2017 11:52 am

    If the CoalitionAF doesn't respond it looks as if the US has accepted the situation and is moving their SF elsewhere. The PMU, positioned on the other side of the border, have put out a video, with English subtitles!, looking forward to the SAA's arrival.

    BEIRUT, LEBANON (6:45 A.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), alongside several paramilitary units, captured a large chunk of rebel-held territory in the eastern countryside of Al-Sweida, a military source told Al-Masdar last night.

    According to the military source, the Syrian Arab Army and their allies seized more than 60 square kilometers of territory in the Al-Zalfa area of Al-Sweida, marking the second largest advance for the pro-government forces in the last 72 hours.

    With the Al-Zalfa area secured, the Syrian Arab Army and their allies will push further east in order to secure the provincial border and surround the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) near the Al-Tanf border-crossing to Iraq.

    Prior to Friday night’s advance, the Syrian Arab Army and their allies were the target of US Coalition airstrikes in southeast Homs; this attack resulted in the death of six military personnel.

    While the operation is led by the Syrian Arab Army, several pro-government paramilitary units are also participating in this offensive, including the National Defense Forces (NDF), Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), Saraya Al-‘Areen, Hezbollah, and Kataeb Imam Al-‘Ali (Iraqi paramilitary).


    https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-backed-rebels-lose-large-chunk-territory-syrian-army-east-sweida/

    JohninMK

    Posts : 4892
    Points : 4955
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  JohninMK on Sat May 20, 2017 11:54 am

    miketheterrible wrote:It wont.  Many throughout history (most probably) find ways to profit off of major conflicts.

    Agree totally Mike, especially in that part of the world.

    Its probably that those in other power centres were not getting what they thought they were entitled to as 'tax' and stepped in to show who is actually boss.

    JohninMK

    Posts : 4892
    Points : 4955
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  JohninMK on Sat May 20, 2017 11:57 am

    Interesting new road engineering. Just found shortcut or backdouble in Damascus area




    JohninMK

    Posts : 4892
    Points : 4955
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  JohninMK on Sat May 20, 2017 12:03 pm

    You have to hand it to them, ome serious ingenuity going on

    Hugo Kaaman‏ @PurpleOlive2 2h2 hours ago

    IS improvised rocket launcher w/ heat shield, designed to fire S-5K air-to-ground rockets. E. Raqqah countryside






    Also, captured in Iraq, no doubt coming to an SAA position soon, SVIED with 5 rockets on the roof to help clear the way, they are in the shade so not a very clear piccy. Love the added headlights, they clearly wanted to stay road legal Very Happy




    JohninMK

    Posts : 4892
    Points : 4955
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  JohninMK on Sat May 20, 2017 12:21 pm

    So this makes it OK then?

    WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The pro-Syrian government force the US-led coalition targeted with a strike on Thursday was an Iran-directed militia with offensive capabilities, US Defense Secretary James Mattis said in a press conference on Friday.

    "It [the strike] was necessitated by offensive movement with offensive capability of what we believe was Iranian-directed forces inside an established and agreed upon deconfliction zone," Mattis stated.

    On Thursday, the US-led coalition against the Islamic State terror group (banned in Russia) conducted a strike near Syria's al-Tanf, where the United States and British special operations forces have been training Syrian rebel fighters near the border with Iraq and Jordan.

    JohninMK

    Posts : 4892
    Points : 4955
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  JohninMK on Sat May 20, 2017 12:31 pm

    Ivan Sidorenko‏ @IvanSidorenko1 9h9 hours ago

    #Syria #Damascus Al Maydan Media Met With Commander of "Sayyida Rukaya Brigade" Jaafariya Force Part of #Tanf #AlTanf #AlTanaf battle


    avatar
    calm

    Posts : 1245
    Points : 1247
    Join date : 2015-12-19
    Location : Serbia

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  calm on Sat May 20, 2017 12:56 pm

    eehnie wrote:
    Lol, pure trolling. Pure non-sense. Conceding the Kurds to the US and painting them as opposed to Russia and Iran, worrying by the advance near Israel (see South of Syria). Well, too obvious pro-Israeli propaganda, like always from him.


    You need to understand that Russia needs peace and stability in SYria after this war. Iran and increasing presence of of them around Damascus will just increase number of airstrikes for Israelis.
    And no, Russia will not attack Israel becouse of some crazy Arab-Jewish conflict of fanatics, Russia have better things to do.



    full article
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/04/putin-has-a-new-secret-weapon-in-syria-chechens/
    The quiet deployment of roughly 1,000 Muslim special forces from Russia’s southern regions shows that Moscow is serious about upping its ground game in Syria.

    Moscow is actually expanding its role in Syria. Russian officials announced major expansions to Russian military bases in the country while the number of private contractors fighting on the Kremlin’s behalf also swelled...

    ...This growing presence allows the Kremlin to have a greater role in shaping events on the ground as it digs in for the long term. Such forces could prove vital in curtailing any action taken by the Assad regime that would undermine Moscow’s wider interests in the Middle East while offering a highly effective method for the Kremlin to project power at a reduced political cost.


    ...As Moscow’s footprint deepens, North Caucasian special forces have taken on increasingly important tasks across Syria, from guarding Syrian Kurdish units against Turkish incursions in Manbij to ensuring the success of negotiated rebel evacuations on the outskirts of Damascus. The growing role of the brigades demonstrates a desire on Russia’s part to wield greater influence over areas of Syria it deems crucial, particularly in the face of occasional tension with its Syrian and Iranian allies. Although outward appearances suggest solidarity, Moscow has occasionally clashed with both Damascus and Tehran. Perhaps the most publicized example of this uneasy alliance came during the late stages of the Aleppo campaign. Iranian officials were reportedly incensed with the terms of a cease-fire brokered for the city by Russia and Turkey in December 2016 that were imposed without their input. Iran later intentionally scuttled the deal, using its Iraqi and Syrian proxy forces to resume fighting in Aleppo. Not coincidentally, Moscow’s first Chechen soldiers arrived in Syria within weeks of that event.

    The importance for Moscow in being able to control unexpected events on the ground was highlighted in late January when rumors began to spread that Assad had suffered a stroke. Adding fuel to the fire, some opposition figures claimed that the Syrian president had flown to Beirut for treatment; Damascus uncharacteristically denied the claims instead of ignoring them, fueling the speculation. Amid the uncertainty, reports emerged that with Assad’s health failing, Iranian forces were posturing to install his brother Maher, who is rumored to not be among the Kremlin’s preferred list of successors. Within several days, Assad returned to Damascus and held a series of publicized meetings, calming the situation. But the incident highlighted the value for Moscow in having its own ground forces in the Syrian capital...

    ...The Ingush battalion, meanwhile, continues to function in Damascus, having been spotted in the center of the capital throughout April. There are signs that the Ingush battalion is becoming more involved in front-line action with rebel forces in the Syrian capital.





    More on those private contractors here /
    https://vk.com/video-70187376_456239264
    http://rusvesna.su/news/1494197947
    http://rusvesna.su/news/1494871646
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dcUaogp25M



    https://translate.google.ru/translate?hl=ru&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Ffree-news.su%2Finteresnoe%2F19524-v-siriyu-pribyl-kontrpartizanskij-specnaz&sandbox=1


    There were even a clash in Wadi Barada, when Russians tried to enter to force the casefire, but Iranians/Hezbollah block them. Iran was the one who run the show in that pocket. They cleared it at the end.
    immediately after that Russian military police were deployed for the first time in a city on Lebanese border, clear indicator of clash between 2 influences. Town that some used to say used to be one of the routes for weapons to hezbollah before the war.

    Feb 23
    RU MP to be deployed in Syria border town of Serghaya that rebels have surrendered to SAA 3 days ago. First MP deployment outside Aleppo

    avatar
    calm

    Posts : 1245
    Points : 1247
    Join date : 2015-12-19
    Location : Serbia

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  calm on Sat May 20, 2017 1:11 pm

    Once more, great article from Elijah

    Has Russia asked Hezbollah to leave Syria?


    There has been a lot of media coverage claiming that Russia has requested the Lebanese Hezbollah to leave Syrian territory, speculation initiated following Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s announcement of the withdrawal of his men from the Lebanese border, with the exception of the outskirts of the city of Arsal. Nasrallah asked the Lebanese army to fill the vacuum from the Lebanese side (Hezbollah won’t pull out of the Syrian side) and that prompted some media and analysts to conclude that Moscow no longer wants Hezbollah to remain in the Levant. Is this theory close to reality?

    The border area between Lebanon and Syria, controlled by Hezbollah and the Syrian army, is under the gaze of Israel because it represents Hezbollah’s new base:, it hosts Hezbollah “Al Ridwan” elite forces, and its strategic missile silos are dug into the mountains and fortified in the caves all along the 130 kilometre border area. The area was a heavy burden on the Hezbollah military apparatus, forcing it to create new roads, fortify dozens of sites and find adequate shelter for its strategic missiles – the M 600 and the new version of its Iran-made “Al-Fateh” missiles – inside the mountains. Moreover, Hezbollah has operated in the area for the last 3 years throughout the summer and the winter, even on peaks of up to 2,500 meters, a significant drain on its already significant monthly budget.

    More than 500 al-Qaeda and rebel fighters were deployed in this same area, apart from the presence of ISIS (The “Islamic State” group). These forced Hezbollah to deploy at least 5,000 fighters just to that area. Additionally, Hezbollah used drones, set up dozens of ambushes and positioned IEDs to hunt down its enemies and tighten the control over a significantly difficult geographical area.

    After many years of war, Hezbollah managed to control a large part of the region: this means al-Qaeda, ISIS and the rebels would have been left without any military gain had these decided to stay in the area.

    When most Syrian areas along the borders with Lebanon -in the Qalamoun and Zabadani mainly- agreed a settlement with the Syrian leadership in Damascus; and (following the agreement of the parties in the war in Syria on the rebel side) agreed – under the auspices of Russia, Turkey and Iran – to “stop fighting and leave the area (only those willing to leave to Idlib, while many Syrians preferred to stay in their cities) it was no longer possible for rebels and jihadists to keep up the fight.

    This coincides with the request of Moscow for the Hezbollah leadership to increase the number of “Ridwan” forces and to push these men towards the Syrian semi-desert steppe: that was possible for Hezbollah, following the end of the military operation in the border area.

    Hezbollah’s military activity on the eastern chain was difficult and painful. Huge budgets were invested to allow men to operate and fight in the area. Today, however, the threat has almost ended. Most of the Hezbollah forces have moved to other areas inside Syria.

    The “Ridwan” Hezbollah forces, along with hundreds of Russian special forces and the Syrian army and its proxies, are now fighting to recover the oil fields (exploited by Russia in Syria) and to stop the American-British-Jordanian project to create a “buffer zone” starting from the Suweida and Daraa governed territories and extending towards the Iraqi border, Deir al-Zour from Palmyra to Sukhna.

    It is clear that the US – which supports the progress of the “Syrian Democratic Forces” (SDF) made up of Kurds and of Arab tribes under the Kurdish leadership in the northeast of Syria – is not yet ready to guide its proxies towards the city of Deir Al-Zour, besieged as it is by ISIS. ISIS is indeed crumbling in Iraq and Syria but not yet that weak in Deir Al-Zour province, and especially not in the Syrian Badia (steppe).

    Russia, Damascus and their allies are headed towards Deir Al-Zour, regardless of the US-Kurdish forces’ plan to control the Syrian steppe and the city of Deir Al-Zour (which host large numbers of Syrian Army officers and soldiers, along with Hezbollah Special Forces). Moreover, Damascus has sent a clear signal to Amman, a threat that it would consider the Jordanian forces as enemies if these set foot on Syrian soil in support of the US and its Syrian proxies. This clear and direct menace stopped the American-British-Jordanian progress and has put these forces in an awkward position with the Damascus authorities.

    The Hezbollah “Ridwan” Special Forces were therefore pushed into the battles of Deir Al-Zour, al-Sukhna, al-Raqqah, and Daraa in order to recover the area around these cities and locations, but above all, to spoil the US plans to occupy the North- east of Syria.

    As for Russia, its forces and Generals are closely watching the Syrian battles, especially those waged by the Lebanese Hezbollah. Russian officers draw military lessons and know-how from the performance of the “Ridwan” special forces and the quality and effectiveness of the weapons and the tactics used, specially after Hezbollah’s accumulated experience in the long war with Israel and its multi-level wars in Syria where they faced forces pursuing a variety of well-developed methods and ideologies, and doctrinal.

    Russia has never had a similar battle in its history, so there is a widespread interest expressed by a heavy presence of experts on all fronts. This is not only to seek air support and to participate in the fighting, but – indeed – also to watch the fights.

    Hezbollah has succeeded in changing the equation in Syria in conjunction with the Russian and Syrian air forces and has carried out several major battles., the most important of which were the battles of Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and those on the Syrian-Lebanese borders (Al-Qalamoun and Zabadani), al-Quseyr, the various Lattakia axes, around Damascus at Qaboun, Barza, WadiBarada and Madaya.

    Because the end of military operations on the Syrian-Lebanese border is nigh, Hezbollah has managed to direct more than 20,000 troops to other internal but strategic fronts. The fronts around Damascus and Zabadani also allowed more than 10,000 Syrian troops to be moved to “hotter” areas.

    Sources connected with decision makers in Syria confirmed that Hezbollah is building up greater forces in Syria to reach an unprecedented level, supported by huge logistic supply lines to accompany the fighting force. Significant military plans are being prepared for after the forthcoming month of Ramadan to end the presence of al-Qaeda and ISIS militants around Arsal city. These militants will be offered the chance to leave and join Idlib or fight to the end on the Syrian-Lebanese border, an area excluded from the Astana-Kazakhstan negotiations.

    If Hezbollah withdraws from the Lebanese border, it will not leave the Syrian side of the borders where it has established static positions, military training cities, and sites for its weapons involved in any forthcoming war with Israel. Syria has become directly involved in this particular Hezbollah-Israel conflict. Hezbollah has also introduced the concept of “the Syrian resistance” in the ideology,: this has become a reality that Israel will find difficult to ignore in the near future when the war in Syria ends.

    The “Shiite Crescent,” which extends from Tehran – Baghdad -Damascus and continues to Beirut, is not related to a certain geographical line crossing through this or that capital, as some sources imagine. It is in fact a “project” that materialised with the US invasion to Iraq in 2003 and following the ISIS occupation of Mosul in 2014. These events strengthened this virtual link without weakening it at all. This indicates that only ending the Middle East conflicts will make long-term stability possible in the area. The presence of the US occupation forces in North and northeast Syria will only create more conflict, reminding everyone of the Iraqi insurgency memory regarding Mesopotamia. The United States is clearly unwilling or unable to learn from history.

    https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2017/05/20/has-russia-asked-hezbollah-to-leave-syria/

    avatar
    calm

    Posts : 1245
    Points : 1247
    Join date : 2015-12-19
    Location : Serbia

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  calm on Sat May 20, 2017 1:43 pm

    East Sweida

    avatar
    PapaDragon

    Posts : 5291
    Points : 5397
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  PapaDragon on Sat May 20, 2017 1:57 pm

    Cyberspec wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:So no I don't understand what the fuck is so important down south that requires those civilians to stay encircled even one hour more than necessary

    Opening the Baghdad-Damascus road...pretty important goal don't you agree?

    The moment Deir ez Zorr is secured whole southern desert falls as a result along with that road (of currently very dubious usefulness).

    This detour is a waste of time. Idlib won't stay quiet forever and Iranian morons are just wasting precious time. They can take over the whole south and build a highway to Lebanon it still won't matter because Israelis will clean them out in one afternoon.

    .......
    Amid the uncertainty, reports emerged that with Assad’s health failing, Iranian forces were posturing to install his brother Maher, who is rumored to not be among the Kremlin’s preferred list of successors. .....

    Looks like it's time for Maher to suffer a fatal skiing accident and to send his Iranian sugardaddies back to Tehran in either vertical or horizontal orientation. They provide zero usefulness and have proven to be a massive liability and a future hostile force.

    Sponsored content

    Re: Syrian Civil War: News #12

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Fri Sep 22, 2017 5:28 pm