Syrian War: News #12

par far wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

calm wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

+++:

I am getting kinda lost in timeline, acronyms and factions of this ''southern comfort'' here. Can you give me a crash course?  

Russia used to be part of #resistanceAxis, but no more.

That's all you need to know.  

So you expect them to bomb us proxies which they could hit US forces and cause a defacto war.

I don't think you understand in the slightest what is happening at Tan, You do not understand the risk.

Simply put the risk is too great for Russia but it is too great for us also.

We bombed proxies not the SAA.

I can never understand the madness that is proposed here at times which displays a clear lack of understanding of the situation at the ground, by all means comes to syria and you will see how shattered your logic is.

What happens if Russia bombs US proxies at Al Tan.

nomadski wrote:
@par far

The imperialist plan is to cause chaos . Through sectarian and ethnic wars . Only when people fight . Can they take sides . And spread their illegitimate influence . So the regional powers should not , as far as possible , directly involve themselves . Nor encourage involvement by outside powers . This will set the region on fire .

All religious and ethnic groups in the region , who act in a democratic manner . In the national interest . Are willing to have peace . And share power . And renounce killings . Must be identified . The territory these groups control , must be made freely available for use by national army units . The long term plan should be to disband all militas . And absorb them into national army .

Democratic and national forces , have the right of self defence . If yanks and co . Attack them . From the air . Then they have the right and should in my view , use SAM to defend themselves . This is better than direct interception by Russian fighters . The air attacks by yank and usrael can not be allowed to escalate and become a significant threat to the democratic forces . All democratic and patriotic forces that do not relinquish full control over the territory they hold . Must be viewed as separatists . Not much different to terrorists . Must be fought .

PapaDragon wrote:
What we seem to have now in Syria is conflict between Russia and Iran.

Russia wants to secure E.Aleppo and push towards Deir ez Zorr. This will allow them to pretty much secure all pro gov. population centers and then refocus on Idlib.

There is also matter of principle. They abhor leaving people encircled and besieged.

Iran on the other hand seem to be focused on fighting completely different war and are using current "truce" in Idlib to try to pull another attempt at securing connection with Lebanon.

So now we have two currents in Syrian government. Pro Iran and pro Russia.

This results in Iranians forcing SAA to divert troops towards the south to push their Shia Crescent project and to secure more influence in post war Syria. Which is idiotic on several levels because not only are they incapable of matching Russian muscle but securing Syria like Russia is pushing for will result in connection to Lebanon either way.

Problem is that this approach will not give them full control afterwards. This results in them diverting SAA into this southern detour while hoping that if SHTF Russia will do their fighting for them. Russia not being stupid simply decided to let them get fucked back to their senses.

Problem is that this results in operation to lift siege of DeZ being delayed. This is why there are still no big movements on that front yet. Russia managed to to free up troops for this op with those deescalation zones but Iranians, being parasites as usual, immediately started fucking up again.

And DeZ get to suffer bit longer as a result.

nomadski wrote:All of syria is syrian territory . Ultimately no terrorists or uninvited forces should remain there . Terrorists and irreconcilables can not hold territory .  Democratic forces who promise or aim to be part of political process can . Provisional to working with central government . Allowing passage of national forces to secure borders . And contributing forces to national government forces . Similarly patriotic forces can move freely in government held areas . For purposes of trade and logistic support .

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

par far wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

calm wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

+++:

I am getting kinda lost in timeline, acronyms and factions of this ''southern comfort'' here. Can you give me a crash course?  

Russia used to be part of #resistanceAxis, but no more.

That's all you need to know.  

So you expect them to bomb us proxies which they could hit US forces and cause a defacto war.

I don't think you understand in the slightest what is happening at Tan, You do not understand the risk.

Simply put the risk is too great for Russia but it is too great for us also.

We bombed proxies not the SAA.

I can never understand the madness that is proposed here at times which displays a clear lack of understanding of the situation at the ground, by all means comes to syria and you will see how shattered your logic is.

What happens if Russia bombs US proxies at Al Tan.

If it was just proxies? nothing we would bitch and moan.

However Tan is of high important, Here is the playbook. Spec ops, will be close to the fighting however they will not take part.

This is to keep Russian jets away.

Now we bombed the proxies to see what we could get away with.

Long has we have service men close enough tot he FSA. Russia cannot and will not bomb anything.

It is the same for us why do you think we targetted the proxies? Russians have advisors mixed in with the SAA.

We could not risk killing one.

Basically it is proxy verse proxy for this conflict with the US and Russia keeping their airforces away from the main forces

franco wrote:Don't hold your breath for that to happen.

It is a complicated chess game with far reaching consequences to making the wrong move.

par far wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

par far wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

calm wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

+++:

I am getting kinda lost in timeline, acronyms and factions of this ''southern comfort'' here. Can you give me a crash course?  

Russia used to be part of #resistanceAxis, but no more.

That's all you need to know.  

So you expect them to bomb us proxies which they could hit US forces and cause a defacto war.

I don't think you understand in the slightest what is happening at Tan, You do not understand the risk.

Simply put the risk is too great for Russia but it is too great for us also.

We bombed proxies not the SAA.

I can never understand the madness that is proposed here at times which displays a clear lack of understanding of the situation at the ground, by all means comes to syria and you will see how shattered your logic is.

What happens if Russia bombs US proxies at Al Tan.

If it was just proxies? nothing we would bitch and moan.

However Tan is of high important, Here is the playbook. Spec ops, will be close to the fighting however they will not take part.

This is to keep Russian jets away.

Now we bombed the proxies to see what we could get away with.

Long has we have service men close enough tot he FSA. Russia cannot and will not bomb anything.

It is the same for us why do you think we targetted the proxies? Russians have advisors mixed in with the SAA.

We could not risk killing one.

Basically it is proxy verse proxy for this conflict with the US and Russia keeping their airforces away from the main forces

Very detailed and true, I expect Russia to start bombing soon, I think Russia gave the US a chance to get out but they did not take(Russia probably thought that Jordan was not going to let the US use their territory to attack Syria from Jordan but Russia was wrong.)

On a related question, does anyone know how many Aircraft and Fighter Jets does Russia have in Syria? How long would it take for Russia to bring more Aircraft and Fighter Jets to Syria?

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

insight from the frontlines help and actually being in the country, that said I shall vanish for afew weeks now. I got Raqqq stuff to handle.

JohninMK wrote:At this link, a few posts down, is a phone video of the aftermath of that US attack. As the filmer gets closer (last 4 seconds) a tracked vehicle with what looks like radar on it becomes clearer. Any ideas as to what it is?

https://twitter.com/BosnjoBoy/status/865517426288373760

EDIT

Following my next post, could it be the ZSU-23-4 Shilka?

JohninMK wrote:Bit more meat if true, my highlight

Local sources have released details of the Syrian pro-government forces convoy that was attacked by US-led coalition warplanes in the vicinity of al-Tanf. Syrian source told Sputnik that the convoy bombed by the US-led coalition aircraft in the vicinity of al-Tanf did indeed belong to the Syrian pro-government forces.

The convoy itself was comprised of 5 T-62 main battle tanks, a ZSU-23-4 Shilka anti-aircraft weapon system and several four-wheel drive vehicles, crewed by a total of 50 troopers.

The coalition aircraft, flying at very low altitude, entered Syrian airspace from the direction of Jordan and after firing several warning shots launched a missile attack against the convoy, damaging two tanks and several vehicles.

The return fire from Shilka’s four 23mm autocannons forced the attacking aircraft to rapidly gain altitude, thus becoming visible to the radars of the S-200 surface-to-air weapon systems of the 16th regiment based in al Damir. Having detected the retaliatory S-200 missile launches, the invading coalition aircraft quickly fled the Syrian airspace.

A total of six men were killed and three were injured during this attack.

The airstrike was apparently launched in response to the Syrian pro-government forces’ offensive against the US-backed elements, according to Reuters citing an American official.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201705191053788687-syrian-convoy-airstrike-damage/

nomadski wrote:
@parfar

Yes you are right . It is a dream . But if you don't have a dream ( an imagined solution ) , there is zero chance of achieving a solution . How many can actually visualize , how this war can be ended ? For this war to be ended , then certain first steps are necessary . First is the coalition of all truly national forces . To protect the borders and work together on the ground and allow some freedom of movement as is necessary to maintain their strength . It is not enough to call a group patriotic or democratic or national , if they refuse to do the basic things that keep the country borders safe and form a coalition or government . The central government then has to allow democratic forces to retain defensive strength . Levels of force must be agreed . This is first step . Next comes the amalgamation into national army . Withdrawal from territory captured . These are all necessary steps on the way to peace . Either this path is followed and peace comes or there will be no peace , because the X or Y had a meeting or person Z had weapon  Q ...................or sparrows flew over the white House .....

PapaDragon wrote:
What we seem to have now in Syria is conflict between Russia and Iran.

Russia wants to secure E.Aleppo and push towards Deir ez Zorr. This will allow them to pretty much secure all pro gov. population centers and then refocus on Idlib.

There is also matter of principle. They abhor leaving people encircled and besieged.

Iran on the other hand seem to be focused on fighting completely different war and are using current "truce" in Idlib to try to pull another attempt at securing connection with Lebanon.

So now we have two currents in Syrian government. Pro Iran and pro Russia.

This results in Iranians forcing SAA to divert troops towards the south to push their Shia Crescent project and to secure more influence in post war Syria. Which is idiotic on several levels because not only are they incapable of matching Russian muscle but securing Syria like Russia is pushing for will result in connection to Lebanon either way.

Problem is that this approach will not give them full control afterwards. This results in them diverting SAA into this southern detour while hoping that if SHTF Russia will do their fighting for them. Russia not being stupid simply decided to let them get fucked back to their senses.

Problem is that this results in operation to lift siege of DeZ being delayed. This is why there are still no big movements on that front yet. Russia managed to to free up troops for this op with those deescalation zones but Iranians, being parasites as usual, immediately started fucking up again.

And DeZ get to suffer bit longer as a result.

ultimatewarrior wrote:Don't forget, if it weren't for SAA letting Russia use the Jableh airbase for free, Russia would have to pay hundreds of millions a year leasing it from SAA the way Russia was leasing the Sevastopol port from Ukraine. Russia better not sit around lazy doing nothing and use the jets there to bomb IS in eastern Aleppo.

par far wrote:I don't think it is Russia vs Iran in Syria, the Syrian government knows that if they piss off Russia, they will screwed. Iran does have influence on the Syrian government but not to the level of Russia.

At the first look, the alliance between Iran, Russia and Syria seems to be based on decades-old friendship and plenty of mutual interests. However, the Syrian civil war is revealing ever-bigger differences between the governments in Moscow and those in Damascus and Tehran.

JohninMK wrote:Not sure where or when but a classic to make you smile for the weekend