Kimppis wrote:First of all, shouldn't the Su-57 replace older planes. Russia doesn't have enough resources to train pilots now? They didn't realize any of that earlier and plan accordingly? As well, only some weeks or months ago you were still predicting around 60 would be ordered by around 2025, right? But now, all of a sudden, everything is very different?
Yeah, I remember those production numbers for Su-35 and Su-34, but that was before 2012. So are we returning to the 90s now? This is 2018, there's just no excuse. It's clear they didn't want this, they didn't plan for this. Originally they very publicly announced a plan for around 60 Su-57s by 2020. You don't test the first protype in 2010, while starting the production properly 15 or 20 years later and act like everything is OK.
So is the situation like this... They are simply unable to produce next generation equipment in numbers. This would also finally explain why Russian military procurement was going surprisingly well, despite it being quite behind in many technological indicators, like top 500 supercomputers, industrial robots, patents, etc. They can surely churn out upgraded Soviet designs, but when it comes to stuff like Su-57, Armata and potentially S-500, there are huge delays, nothing happens. And Ill admit right away that this is just me speculating, Im not saying any of that is exactly true and I don't want it to be, but right it doesn't look too good.
Of course certain people exaggerate the importance of stealth, but if its's so useless, then why design Su-57 at all. Not to mention other countries and their projects.
Weak, weak, weak. Fanboys and spin doctors (and I'm not talking about any particular posters here or anything like that) will just keep repeating how this another sign of Russian strength and how this doesn't matter, or whatever. I'd love to as well, to be perfectly honest, but I can't. Maybe it sounds like I'm overreacting or something, but I don't care.
It's also probably true that those planes won't actually be needed anytime soon, it's not like WW3 is going to start, but it just shows... weakness. A word I dont want to associate with Russia. Uncle Sam and China don't respect it one bit and neither do I. It indicates that there are considerable issues with Russian economy, industry and technology. On a scale that I didn't believe, and didn't want to believe in, earlier (OK, that sounds kind of dramatic, so kvs and other shouldn't take it too seriously). And of course none of that is actually 100% confirmed, so... there's still hope.
My current mood is indeed quite pessimistic, so I might as well add some other predictions
- Economic growth will not reach 3%
- Some of the earlier estimates on Armata production (South Front, etc.) are indeed accurate, and no more than 50 T-14s will be produced annually, at most, maybe less. And that is while Russia "prioritizes" Ground Forces...
- S-500 wont be ready anytime soon, the Western so-called experts are actually correct. I'm talking about mid-20s
- Nothing massive, but additional delays with heavier drones as well
- Recent estimates on Gorshkov production are accurate too... So 2 operational Gorshkovs by 2020, 4 by 2023 and 6 maybe by 2027
- No additional mid-sized Frigate orders until the late 20s. The remaining 2 or 3 of Grigorovich-class ships already ordered will indeed be sold to India, because I don't think those reports have been fully debunked yet
- Small delays even with Yasens, new orders come in slow... Maybe 10 new SSNs by around 2030. They somehow need additional 10 quickly to replace the remaining older ones after that
- Lider will remain a paper project past 2030 (sorry, Eehnie, lol). Something will be ready by the mid-30s
- Delays with helicopter carriers, etc. Maybe 1 operational in 2030. Let's not even talk about any bigger projects
That's my "blackpill timeline" (gotta mention this on Karlin's comments lol). And the worst thing is that in many it doesn't look so unlikely anymore. Sorry. I will also repeat once more that I don't want any of it to be true.
Only remember 2015:
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2693130According to a source from Kommersant in the military department, the GPO-2020 provided for the purchase of 52 T-50. "We even wrote a schedule of deliveries," Kommersant source said. "In the period 2016-2018, the Russian Air Force was to receive eight fighters per year, and in 2019-2020 - already 14 aircraft of this type." These plans were feasible, he believes, if there were no economic difficulties that arose in the country: "There is an understanding that, first of all, we will sign a contract for the T-50 squadron (12 units - Kommersant). they are still necessary and how much we can afford. " The UAC did not comment on this information
THe SAP 2020 was modified from 52 to 12 , and it seems this is the number to order now
The expected "52" in 5 years was supossed by some media/people for next SAP 2025 (supossed , not announced)
Later the SAP was modificated until 2027.and that affected all the programs, not just the Su-57.
There was quite crisis and inflation in Russia since 2015 and also the oil fell a lot 2-3 years ago, so the defense budget for purchases was cut in an important part (30% ??)
When someone talks about "buying airplanes" like the one who buys bananas, it's better to stop reading, it's not serious
We have to consider all the factors.
First, Putin says clearly about military procurement: first replace , later , slow growth
In the first part, Su-35 and Su-30 was chosen for replace soviet airplanes
Some people says the that the pace of purchases is low or expect more planes each year. I said here many times that a squadron (approximately) a year was enough to replace the Soviet models not modernized in 2020 or little more, and all the other flankes in 2025 or a little more, seems that they have adjusted it for 2027
To produce a third figther while Su-35 and Su-30 are producing, does not sound very reasonable, but has been announced many times and all people beleive in that.
However it is clear Su-57 is still green. To produce more with the program unfinished has not sense , and Russia is not in a hurry now, if you compare the situation of the Air Force with 2012, it is clearly much better
In 2020 or little more, about all soviet fighters will be replaced or modernized, as initially was planned in SAP 2011-2020
Also people usually think only over airplanes , but forgets who is piloting them: forming a pilot, an officer, is a 5-year career in a university or military academy. It is not a matter of money or resources.
Since you make the decision to train more pilots to expand the Air Force until you have novice pilots, spend at least 5 years and some more to acquire experience.
The military academies were reformed several years ago and the fruits will be seen from 2020
Russia has a problema with the age of pilots and you can not go to an employment office to hire someone to pilot a combat plane
The Su-57 does noy replace to any airplane and will be based in closed bases that need overhaul
Some airbases (Kursk, Besovets, Astrakhan) have been overhauled, other are next to conclude the repairs (Chkalovsk, Vorónezh...) but for the momento there are not notice about other bases that could receive Su-57 , like the closed in 2009 (Dorokhovo, Loneynodye Pole, etc...). so RuAF does not expect to have new regiment of Su-57 in next 2-3-4 years
Leaving aside the specific technical problems, of which we do not have data enough as it is logical, what is clear that a totally new plane must give problems, as happened with the F-22 and the F-35 and the Russians does not seem that have a lot of faith in "stealth", they are not going to make the mistake of making a large scale something yet not finished. The flankers have been a safe bet.
you're in a great hurry with the S-500
The S-400 is still being received and by 2020 half of the AA missiles will be S-400. Is it really necessary in S-500 in 2020? Can not wait for 2025? Syria has just shot down an F-16 with an S-150 or S-200
Russia does not need to have 4 fleets either. the Baltic and the Black are lagoons.
The expenditure on armaments must be reasonable. Russia has many problems of poverty, demographics, etc ...