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    Russian Economy General News: #8

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    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Mon Dec 19, 2016 6:15 am


    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:43 am

    United States widen sanctions against Russia

    More:
    http://tass.com/world/921040


    WASHINGTON, December 20. /TASS/. The United States broadened the sanction list against Russia related to developments in Ukraine, the US Treasury Department said in its statement on Tuesday.

    Seven individuals, several dozens of organizations and two vessels under the Russian flag were included into the list.

    Nine regional units of Russian gas producer Novatek are now in the sanction list. Furthermore, Crimean Ports, Crimean Railways, Stroiproekt Institute, Transflot, and others are in the hit list as well.

    Marshal Zhukov and Stalingrad, two vessels bearing the Russian flag and subjected to sanctions, belong to Transflot company.

    The US Treasury Department made an update for Russia’s Glavgosexpertiza in its sanction list of legal entities and individuals.

    The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the Treasury Department published General License 11 "Authorizing Certain Transactions With FAU Glavgosekspertiza Rossii."

    "This general license authorizes certain transactions that are ordinarily incident and necessary to requesting, contracting for, paying for, receiving, or utilizing a project design review or permit from FAU Glavgosekspertiza Rossii’s office(s) in the Russian Federation," the document said.

    Glavgosexpertiza Rossii hit by sanctions on September 1, 2016 is the leading Russian institution dealing with expert reviews of design documents and findings of engineering surveys.

    Sanctions against four construction and transport companies are introduced "because they operate in the Crimea region," the document says.

    Institut Stroiproekt is working on the construction of highway segments for the Kerch Bridge project, the Treasury Department said. "The main purpose of the planned highway is to provide transport links between the Crimean peninsula and mainland Russian Federation," the document reports. Karst LLC "was subcontracted to make foundational piling and supports for the Kerch Bridge", the authority said. Crimean Railway and Crimean Ports are also in the sanction list.

    Restrictive measures against four other companies [Transpetrochart, Trans-Flot, Solid and RusChemTrade - TASS] were introduced "because they materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, OJSC Sovfracht" earlier hit by sanctions, the US Treasury Department said.

    Under the document, seven Russians were added to the list of sanctions, imposed on Russia over its stance regarding the conflict in Ukraine and reunification with Crimea.

    Six of those individuals - Kirill Kovalchuk, Dmitri Lebedev, Dmitri Mansurov, Mikhail Klishin, Oleg Minaev, and Mikhail Dedov - were put on the list of sanctions for "acting for or on behalf of and providing financial, material, or technological support to Bank Rossiya, ABR Management, or Sobinbank," the US Treasury said in a statement. These companies were added to the list of sanctions between 2014 and 2016.

    The seventh individual, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, was designated for "having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services in support of, senior officials of the Russian Federation," the US Treasury said.

    "Prigozhin has extensive business dealings with the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense, and a company with significant ties to him holds a contract to build a military base near the Russian Federation border with Ukraine," the statement reads.

    The blacklist of sectoral sanctions was expanded to include "a number of subsidiaries of the Russian Agricultural Bank and Novatek as being 50% or more owned by their respective parent entities." The two companies fell under the US sanctions in 2014.

    Moscow reserves the right to choose the time, venue and form of counter-moves to US sanctions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told Tass Tuesday, commenting on the move.

    "We will be expanding our lists, we will see how we can respond asymmetrically. We reserve the right to choose the timing, the venue and form of counter-moves the way that will suit us, and the way it will be relevant to our own priorities in the American direction," he said.

    The United States and the European Union introduced sanctions against Russia in view of developments in Ukraine and reunification of Crimea with Russia. Sanctions were repeatedly extended and renewed.


    More:
    http://tass.com/world/921040

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:14 am

    "Growth Strategy" has found new walls[/b
    [b]
    Boris Titov presented the updated program "Stolypin club"

    http://kommersant.ru/doc/3176582


    21/12/2016, 1:51
    Yesterday in the Analytical Center of the longer "Stolypin club" government, and based on it the Institute of Economics of growth. Stolypin introduced a new version of its program until 2025. The main topic of discussion was "tailor the" macroeconomic parameters.

    "We became close on the court," Stolypin club ", we wanted to go on a more serious level of professional development" strategy "and its implementation", - said yesterday the director of the new Institute of economic growth Anastasia Alekhnovich. The Supervisory Council of the Institute was headed by business ombudsman Boris Titov, Scientific Council - Chairman of the Board of JSC "Investment Company" Eurofinances "" Yakov Mirkin. The scientific council included presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev, head of the department of economics Academy of National Economy under the Government of Abel Aghanbegyan, VEB deputy chairman Andrei Klepach, head of the laboratory Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences Viktor Polterovich, director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the RAS Victor Ivanter.

    Recall that with the help of the "Strategy Growth", which is out of all public officials supported only Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets, Business Ombudsman intends to "unfreeze" the country's economy. In May, he received instructions from the President to continue work on the "Strategy" on the basis of the Analytical Center. Modified "Strategy" is divided into three stages - the restoration of economic growth (2017-2019 years), the yield on its high growth (2020-2025 years), sustainable development (2026-2035 years).

    The document's authors said yesterday its intention to create a "diversified, stable, competitive and market economy." To this end, they consider it necessary to eliminate the dependence of the economy on the export of raw materials, to promote competition and reduce the state's share in the economy, to create the conditions for business out of the shadows, to ensure technology transfer.

    Because previous versions of the program have been criticized for the utopian, the paper expanded the list "system solutions to enhance the sources of growth." It appeared the item "Maintenance of macroeconomic stability in a growing economy" ( "tribute criticism" - described him Boris Titov). Stability is proposed to achieve mainly targeting the Central Bank and the government's GDP growth, the number of established high-performance jobs, the ruble exchange rate and inflation. The exchange rate should be moderately low (relative to the current state of the balance of payments) - so it can boost exports and import substitution (with the gradual strengthening of the ruble to the extent of economic growth). "Stolypins' offer to set as the target inflation rate of 7-8% - this level, in their view, not holding back economic growth. Optimum budget deficit - 3-5%, limiting the level of public debt - 60% of GDP.


    The main objective of the authors pose the transition from the "moderately tight" to "moderately soft" monetary policy - in the "Strategy" proposes to launch a planned reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank and start doing it in the first half of 2017, reducing it to 8% (currently 10%). Also available funding partially institutes of 700 billion rubles., To launch new special loan refinancing instruments of the Central Bank in the system of project financing in the amount of 100 billion rubles. Among the old ideas - the creation of the bank's bad debts and restructuring program.

    Sophisticated sections "Strategy" Boris Titov intends to issue in the public space in parts. Modified version of the document will be presented in May, when the government will form a plan to stimulate Russian economic growth rate higher than the world.
    Daria Nikolaeva

    "Kommersant" from 21.12.2016, 1:51
    Authors: Daria Nikolaeva Topics: The dynamics of the Russian economy
    PRINT SEND PRINT DISCUSS 2

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:18 am

    Stolypins' offer to set as the target inflation rate of 7-8% - this level, in their view, not holding back economic growth. Optimum budget deficit - 3-5%, limiting the level of public debt - 60% of GDP.

    ^^^ Wonder what Stolypins are trying to Achieve Rolling Eyes scratch scratch

    Compare that to current inflation of 5-6 % , Planned Budget Deficit not more than 3 % and planning to go to 1 % by 2019 and Public Debt today of ~ 14-15 % and not exceeding 18 % by 2019

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 21, 2016 7:46 pm

    Putin says Russia’s reserves in 2018 to be higher than expected
    Business & Economy
    December 21, 21:28 UTC+3
    http://tass.com/economy/921333

    MOSCOW, December 21. /TASS/. The amount of the safety cushion of Russia’s reserves will be higher in 2018 than expected earlier, President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday at the meeting with parliament members.

    Reserves are used in the first instance due to dropped revenues from oil sales, Putin said. "We spent almost a trillion [rubles ($16.4 bln) - TASS] from the Reserve Fund. We thankfully keep the National Wealth Fund at the same level," the head of state said.

    "We planned about 2.2-2.5 trillion [rubles ($36-41 bln) - TASS] will remain in our reserves by 2018 year-end; the figure will be higher. We have 6.6 trillion rubles ($107.9 bln) at the moment," the President said. "In particular, this is a safety cushion for us," he added.

    The level of gold and currency reserves also deserves attention, the head of state said. "Indeed we have money; moreover, reserves have grown starting from this year. We had gold and currency reserves of the Central Bank about [$] 368 bln in the beginning and now there are almost $385.4 bln," Putin said.


    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/921333
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    Project Canada

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Project Canada on Sat Dec 24, 2016 6:05 am




    Real income in Russia falls by over 12% in 2 years

    Labor in Russia is now paid for only slightly higher than in India and Bulgaria, according to a study by a Russian state academy.

    Russians' real disposable income has fallen by 12.3 percent since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2014, writes the TASS news agency, citing a report prepared by the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

    The report concludes that the continuing fall in the population's real income has led to an increase in the poverty level, which in the January-September 2016 period was 13.9 percent. This indicator is higher than the level from similar periods in 2012-2014, says the report.

    In May 2016 the average monthly salary in Russia fell to $500, which is below the average monthly salary in China, according to Russia's largest bank Sberbank.

    RBTH has used the Average Monthly Disposable Salary by Country rankings, which was posted by the Numbeo.com resource, to compare the average monthly income in Russia with that of the BRICS countries, as well as nations in Western and Eastern Europe and the United States:

    http://rbth.com/business/2016/12/23/real-income-in-russia-falls-by-over-12-in-2-years_666751


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    miketheterrible

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:45 am

    Major problem is the continuation of comparing currency to USD. That alone isn't a very good method of measurements. Last I checked, Russia uses Rubles, not USD. They need to provide if that accounts for PPP or not.

    Once again, some people need to read the crap they peddle.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:08 am

    Siluanov: Russian budget in 2019 will be balanced with the cost of oil at $ 45 per barrel

    Подробнее на ТАСС:
    http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3902318


    MOSCOW, 23 December. / TASS /. The budget of the Russian Federation in 2019 will be balanced with the cost of oil at $ 45 a barrel, he told Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

    "We set ourselves the task in the next" three-year "further continue to reduce oil and gas deficit and reduce the budget's dependence on commodity revenues. In 2019, we plan to balance the budget at an oil price of $ 45 per barrel, which is practically at equilibrium production volume level and the demand for oil in the world economy ", - said the Minister.

    It is also noted that the federal budget deficit without the sale of 19.5% of shares of "Rosneft" would have amounted to 3.5% of GDP.

    Budget deficit


    Siluanov not exclude that the federal budget deficit on the basis of 2016 may be lower than 3.7% of GDP.

    "In general, the budget (in 2016 - Ed.). Is executed with a deficit of 3.7% and we lay in the budget law, but the latest data on budget spending does not rule out that the figure may be somewhat more optimistic.. and perhaps will be 3.7%, "- he said.


    The dividends of state companies

    Siluanov said that the state-owned dividends to the federal budget in 2017 will come in the amount of 483.48 billion rubles, in 2018 -. 463.18 billion rubles, in 2019 -. 432 580 000 000 rubles.

    "Dividend payments to the federal budget in 2017-2019 years are also planned on the basis of the direction of the payment of dividends at least 50% of the profits of companies with state participation in 2017 -. 483.48 billion rubles, in 2018 -.. 463.18 billion rubles, in 2019 -.. 432 580 000 000 rubles, "-. he said.


    In 2016, the Government of the Russian Federation supported the proposal of the Russian Finance Ministry to increase the share of profit allocated by companies with state participation in the payment of dividends, from 25% to 50% of RAS net income (or 50% of net profit according to IFRS). The implementation of this solution will provide to the end of 2016 additional revenues to the federal budget in the form of dividends in the amount of 55.8 billion rubles.


    package


    Russian Ministry of Finance in 2017 will develop a set of long-term (for the period 2018-2025 years) of structural measures in the revenue and expenditure side of the budget.


    The changes will affect the structure of the tax burden in the direction conducive to higher rates of investment and growth. In particular, reducing the burden on honest business, and increase the cost of doing gray schemes risks increasing load on the consumer, the rationalization of tax incentives.


    In addition, the Ministry of Finance will change the structure of costs in favor of increasing the share of investment in human capital and physical capital, increasing their efficiency, rationalization of industry support measures.

    At the same time, according to Siluanov, the Finance Ministry will prepare a response to the long-term challenges. "Complex incentives to increase the economic activity and the duration of the active life in the insurance system of pension and social security, as well as the growing role of involvement and prevention in the field of health and education", - said the Minister.

    The decline in GDP

    The decline of Russia's GDP could reach 0.5-0.6% in 2016, Siluanov said.

    "This year, we will come out slightly better than the results of our assessment of the economy. If we are in the forecasts was assessed minus 0.6% of GDP, it is possible to be somewhere 0.5%. In this case we are talking about the fact that in some areas we see This increase in the growth rate of agricultural products, chemical, woodworking, light industry, agricultural machinery industry grew those in which support was provided, "-.. Siluanov said.

    Siluanov said that the federal budget deficit in 2016 could reach 2.7% of GDP, if it had not been made a one-time decision on early repayment of "credit scheme," the Defense Ministry - debts to the defense enterprises.

    "We are at the beginning of the year stated that the need to meet the 3% deficit at a lower (ie, $ 40 per barrel) than originally budgeted ($ 50 per barrel) oil price. If we calculate the costs with the exception of a single operation by early maturity "credit scheme" - we even slightly exceeded the plan - 2.7% of GDP, "- he said.

    He explained that the budget deficit without the sale of 19.5% stake in Rosneft would amount to 3.5% of GDP.


    The forecast for GDP growth


    Ministry of Finance has improved the forecast for GDP growth in Russia in 2017 from 0.6% to 1-1.5%.

    "Growth rates in some sectors say that we can see a higher rate of growth in the next year than planned. I remind you that we planned 0.6%, evaluations today are such that between 1% and 1.5% may be rate of economic growth in the next year ",
    - said Siluanov.

    Inflation at the end of the year

    The Finance Ministry expects inflation at the end of 2016 in the region of 5.5%.

    "Inflation is now the president said, will be around 5.5%, which is lower than we had planned. Indeed, this is the lowest level for the whole of our history with you. Total reduced inflation from 17% in the 1.5 to 5, 5%, which is largely made possible thanks to the fiscal policy measures, which was implemented this year to curb the budget deficit, accurate approach to indexing a significant contribution to the reduction of inflation has made fiscal policy, "-. Siluanov said.

    The share of treasury bonds

    Siluanov said that the share of public debt in the federal budget deficit financing sources by 2019 will increase to 91% from 20% in 2016

    . "In the years 2017-2019 the structure of sources of financing the federal budget deficit is fundamentally changed: the main (almost the only) source will be government borrowing, which will increase the share to 91% in 2019 against 20% in 2016. Fund-raising will be carried out exclusively by domestic borrowing, the net external borrowing in the 2017-2019 biennium will be negative. "- said the Minister.

    He noted that the average annual domestic net borrowing over the next three years will be about 1 trillion rubles., Which is more than three times the average annual amount of net domestic borrowing in the last six years and is unprecedented in the history of modern Russia.

    "Despite the increased government borrowing, the amount of debt will remain at a safe level, and will not exceed 20% of GDP," - said Siluanov.


    OFZ to the public


    The Finance Ministry also expects to place OFZ for the population in the I quarter of 2017

    "We think that in the I quarter implement this idea (OFZ placement for the population - Ed.). Total output will be small, up to 20-30 billion rubles This paper nonmarket We want to understand the market, to accustom people to the fact that... they can invest not only in the deposits ", - said Siluanov.

    The Finance Ministry expects growth in non-oil revenues in the budget of the Russian Federation for 2016 by almost 900 billion rubles.
    The Minister stressed that the placement of OFZ for the population has been postponed due to the fact that banks have offered "placing unacceptable conditions", but rather a high commission for their implementation.

    Siluanov also said that in addition to Sberbank and VTB, which have already announced their participation in this project, and other banks may join the issue of the instrument.

    Earlier it was reported that the Ministry of Finance planned to issue paper to the end of 2016 Finance Ministry voiced so far only preliminary parameters of the issue: the repayment term - three years, coupon rate - comparable with traded OFZ coupon payment - every six months.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:11 am

    So they are planning to borrow 1 Trillion Rouble each in 2017 , 18 & 19 and the Public Debt wont exceed 20 % , I think it should not exceed 18 % even with 3 trillion Rouble borrowing in next 3 years.

    20 % Public Debt as Percentage of GDP is very low and lowest among BRICS countries , External Borrowing will be none , which is good and shows Russia has a very vibrant domestic borrowing market.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Sat Dec 24, 2016 1:03 pm

    A major benefit of this borrowing is the boost to the banking (or lending) sector in Russia. It is underdeveloped since
    it was cheaper to borrow abroad at cheaper rates. Banks grow by making loans. Deposits are a small fraction of their assets.
    But it would have been better to have the CBR prime rate at 5% for Russia's GDP in general and banking in particular.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:39 am

    4-5 % interest are historically ideal interest rates according to allan greenspan citing many centuries of interest rates which is good for lenders , borrowers and savers.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:41 am

    Four of the myth of the Russian economy

    http://politrussia.com/ekonomika/chetyre-mifa-o-906/
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    Rmf

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Rmf on Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:07 pm

    recession is normal thing in capitalist economy.,
    recession is normal thing in capitalist economy.,
    recession is normal thing in capitalist economy.........
    its needed to weed out bad business ,loans ,workers,,, stimulate invention ,product cost cutting ,debt erasing trough bancruptcy, productivity ,etc,... then you return to growth. somehow it has become twisted thing to avoid at all costs which is impossible by nature of capitalism.
    like winter or a dry season in nature is a cycle and its a must if you want to grow eventually but it takes some time a year or few years , but today its perverted and its because democratic system and politicians that dont want to be remembered as bad ones so they postopone it making things even worse and economy zombified like japan.
    for example parts of siberia and far east has been drain on moscow who provided subsidies for it for many centuries , but soon they will connect to russia transport network and china meaning they will export and earn profits, and crimea investment cycle in all kinds of things will bring economy to grow.
    food prices growth is a must for agriculture sector to become profitable and interesting for enterpreneurs and to grow, so that investment cycle will bear even more profits soon.

    ...all this things will bring great growth for russia and political benefits, and detaching itself from west will help it to avoid plummeting economy when the next crisis hits the west.
    low commodity prices like oil has already been checked by russia so its economy is eliminating its weakneses 1 by 1, so russian people must live worse now so they can live better in the future but they will.
    medvedev decision not to print is a good thing and high rates are good for now to keep savings growing for future investment , although some sectors should get lower longterm rates like agriculture bank which it does.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:10 am

    Sanctions against Russia over election hacking forthcoming: report

    http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/311911-sanctions-against-russia-over-election-hacking-forthcoming-report


    The Obama administration is reportedly finalizing a package of sanctions and diplomatic censure to punish Russia for its attempts to meddle in the 2016 U.S. election.

    U.S. officials told The Washington Post that the response is expected to include covert cyber operations. An announcement describing the public elements could come as early as this week, the newspaper reported.

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:22 am

    Looks like Obama is on some personal revenge hunting to put maximum sanctions before he leaves office on any pretext he can get.

    He keeps extending Ukraine sanction list and is now sanctioning for DNC hacks

    Just to give some context Democrats lost over 1,000 seats under Failed President Obama


    The Democratic Party suffered huge losses at every level during Obama’s West Wing tenure.

    The grand total: a net loss of 1,042 state and federal Democratic posts, including congressional and state legislative seats, governorships and the presidency.


    I guess that must be Putins and Russia fault as well Laughing

    Austin

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:19 pm

    Russia’s inflation rate continues its plunge

    http://theduran.com/russias-inflation-rate-continues-plunge/
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    OminousSpudd

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  OminousSpudd on Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:29 pm


    Svyatoslavich

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Svyatoslavich on Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:55 pm

    Globalists are desperate, they are doing all they can to make a rapprochment between US and Russia impossible. But their desperation is good, because it means that Trump isn't a fraud and probably will do his best to mend relations.
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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:50 am

    Svyatoslavich wrote:
    Globalists are desperate, they are doing all they can to make a rapprochment between US and Russia impossible. But their desperation is good, because it means that Trump isn't a fraud and probably will do his best to mend relations.

    Can anyone find any information on the economics sanctions? All I see is spy vs. spy embassy expulsion theater. Looks like Uncle Scumbag
    is afraid to go after Russia's economy since that gives Russia a way to kill two birds with one stone: import substitute and effectively ban
    the associated import.
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    franco

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  franco on Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:33 am

    kvs wrote:
    Svyatoslavich wrote:
    Globalists are desperate, they are doing all they can to make a rapprochment between US and Russia impossible. But their desperation is good, because it means that Trump isn't a fraud and probably will do his best to mend relations.

    Can anyone find any information on the economics sanctions?  All I see is spy vs. spy embassy expulsion theater.    Looks like Uncle Scumbag
    is afraid to go after Russia's economy since that gives Russia a way to kill two birds with one stone: import substitute and effectively ban
    the associated import.  

    Some Senior officers serving in the GRU and FSB's cyber warfare divisions were added to the individual sanction list.

    The real pain however was cutting off access to the East Coast and West Coast Russian Embassy / Consulates "Dacha's" Suspect
    Pure evil Rolling Eyes
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    OminousSpudd

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  OminousSpudd on Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:44 am

    kvs wrote:
    Svyatoslavich wrote:
    Globalists are desperate, they are doing all they can to make a rapprochment between US and Russia impossible. But their desperation is good, because it means that Trump isn't a fraud and probably will do his best to mend relations.

    Can anyone find any information on the economics sanctions?  All I see is spy vs. spy embassy expulsion theater.    Looks like Uncle Scumbag
    is afraid to go after Russia's economy since that gives Russia a way to kill two birds with one stone: import substitute and effectively ban
    the associated import.  
    I'm seeing a cacophony of whines from Washington sycophants on social media claiming that this is not nearly enough, and that it is another "victory" for ebil Putin. Seems they're not happy. Can't please anyone these days. Rolling Eyes

    The Obama administration has claimed that it'll be rolling out more ambiguous "sanctions" as time goes on, including cyber-attacks, so maybe we'll see something more meaty emerge soon.
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    AlfaT8

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  AlfaT8 on Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:10 am

    Russian economy to return to robust growth after next year – Kudrin

    The former finance minister Aleksey Kudrin expects the Russian economy to grow slow and steady in 2017, before returning to strong growth in the years following.

    “The Russian economy is recovering slowly; most probably we will have minimal yet positive growth rates at the beginning of next year,” he said in an interview with Rossiya 24 TV Channel....

    https://www.rt.com/business/372249-russia-economy-grow-2017-kudrin/

    Oh god, something must be going horribly wrong if frigin Kudrin is optimistic, what's the situation?? Shocked
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    Kimppis

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Kimppis on Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:56 pm

    AlfaT8 wrote:
    Russian economy to return to robust growth after next year – Kudrin

    The former finance minister Aleksey Kudrin expects the Russian economy to grow slow and steady in 2017, before returning to strong growth in the years following.

    “The Russian economy is recovering slowly; most probably we will have minimal yet positive growth rates at the beginning of next year,” he said in an interview with Rossiya 24 TV Channel....

    https://www.rt.com/business/372249-russia-economy-grow-2017-kudrin/

    Oh god, something must be going horribly wrong if frigin Kudrin is optimistic, what's the situation?? Shocked

    I was going to post that article last week but for some reason I forgot.

    That sounds really positive indeed. 3-4% growth would be absolutely adequate. That would also totally destroy the Russophobic BS narratives about Russia's future (again). Muh kleptoracy gas station collapse by the early 2020s, amirite? The simple fact seems to be that Russia's growth potential and human capital are no worse than many other ex-Eastern Bloc countries, the ones that have been developing more or less well, like Baltic countries or Poland. So a solid convergence to the "western" living standard continues, the long-term trend has not changed.

    In reality, there was only a modest recession of 3.5% (the growth rates of 2014 and 2016 more or less cancel each other out), which also didn't change the positive trends regarding demographics and health (growing population, declining death rate).

    It seems that the ruble and oil price keep picking up and investor confidence is rising quite considerably. Also, it's pretty likely that sanctions will end next year. Sure, that sounds like I'm repeating western myths and propaganda about the Russian economy - how it needs high oil prices and huge amounts of western investment - but truth to be told, oil prices of something like $20-40 per barrel were really, really low and not optimal.

    Regardless of the current crisis between the West and Russia, the overall positive trends in the Russian economy didn't and have not changed. Things like import subtitution and development of the domestic banking sector were already happening anyway and they were always going to be gradual processes. An oil price of something like $60-80 (ruble between 50-60?) per barrel is probably optimal (so between the price of 2013 and 2015).

    So it's possible that in a modestly positive scenario the growth rates could be something like: 1.5% to 2% for 2017, 2.5% for 2018, 3% for 2019, 3.5% for 2020 and 4% for 2021 and 3 to 4.5% per year from that point onwards? Maybe, possibly? In that case, not bad at all.
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    Viktor

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Viktor on Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:14 pm

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    kvs

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:01 pm

    http://www.awarablogs.com/absurd-central-bank-policies-deepen-russias-recession/

    Why Nabiullina and the rest of the CBR management should be shot.


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

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