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    Russian Economy General News: #8

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    kvs
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:18 pm

    Kimppis wrote:Alexander Mercouris: Russian Central Bank cuts key rate to 9.75%, optimistic about Russian economy

    Some quotes:

    "To be clear, this is a token cut that will not by itself make any difference to the state of economy.  Its importance is that it clearly signals that more cuts are on the way.  That may in itself act as a spur to growth, consolidating the recovery."

    "The state of Russia’s economic statistics is at the moment one of confusion, with Rosstat – Russia’s state statistical agency – admitting what many people – including myself – always suspected, that it had previously seriously overestimated the severity of the recent recession, which was significantly shorter and shallower than it had previously said.  Rosstat is now in the process of undertaking a comprehensive review both of its methodology and of its earlier calculations.  However this process is far from complete, so it is difficult at present to give a precise picture of the current state of the economy."

    "A never stated fact about the Russian economy is that every contraction since 1991 has been shorter and shallower than its predecessor.  The contractions of 1991 and 1998 were existential crises that threatened the very existence of the Russian state, whilst the 2008 recession, though significantly less severe, was still (as Nabiullina’s figures show) a very steep recession indeed and something of a near death experience.  The latest 2014-2015 recession was by these standards not merely short and shallow, but qualifies as Russia’s first ‘normal’ recession.  As I have discussed many times, its overall effect has been to leave the Russian economy fitter and stronger than it was before."

    I already posted that the 2014-2015 recession was shallow without requiring Rosstat revisions. People can look at the GDP drops in 2009 and
    the cumulative drop 2014 and 2015 to see that the 2008-2009 recession was more intense. The other detail is that the recovery was faster
    by looking at the GDP curve even if there was no growth in 2016. The CBR can see the situation perfectly fine and all is bleating about
    inflation is utter BS.

    The CBR leaves everyone in Russia guessing what it will do. This is not a rational central bank policy. Given the large drop in the inflation
    rate the CBR should have reduced the prime rate to under 8% instead of hovering around 10%. It is clear that the CBR is foisting essentially
    a 10% rate on Russia regardless of the CPI. This means the banks are charging businesses on the order of 12% (consumer loans cost 20%
    https://russia.deposits.org/). All this while the CPI is about 6%. Since the CBR increases the CPI directly with its interest rate, the current
    inflation reduction in Russia is due to a great extent to economic constriction (i.e. prices are kept under control by lack of demand and companies
    that can't afford to pay the CBR protection fee go bankrupt). This is simply criminal.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:39 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:here is what Savers in Russia will earn in Safe Fixed Deposit as interest rate

    https://russia.deposits.org/


    The interest rate is pretty much where FD savers in india earned in 2010

    http://www.onemint.com/2010/05/19/fixed-deposits-interest-rates-in-india/

    You are missing important details.   During that period the CPI in India was between 9 and 10%.   So the policy
    reflected the same approach as the CBR, which I already noted (8.5% rate when CPI was over 10%).   India
    clearly has the right approach.   Look at the interest rates and the CPI.   In 2015 the inflation rate fell to around
    6%

    http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates/india/historic-inflation/cpi-inflation-india.aspx

    and the interest rate was cut to 7.75% at the start of the year and decreased more later:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30825893

    So India's financial policy has no resemblance to Russia.   The prime rate is properly lowered to reflect inflation and not
    kept at some absurdly high level for indefinite periods.   Even the mere fact that the CBR does not signal that it will
    drop the prime rate is bad since it offers no prospect of relief even after the crisis that was the pretext for
    the rate policy is long gone.   This is pure 5th column criminal activity at the CBR and Putin has disappointed me to
    a significant extent.   It appears that he was on a lucky streak with this leadership and that luck has run out.  Now
    he is damaging Russia's economy.   He has zero excuse for pimping Nabiullina and could easily have gone back to the
    2011 poli




    India does not have full capital account currency nor does it have full floating rate currency.

    India not under any sanction nor is the possibility that west is trying to screw us or would no in near future.

    And we are growing at 7 % plus

    That's not to say CBR is right but wanted to give some context

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:42 pm

    EU verdict goes against Rosneft

    "Rosneft" considers the European Court's decision illegal and politicized


    http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4131154
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  GarryB on Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:29 am

    Clearly if Rosneft is going to be sanctioned by Europe for interfering in the Ukraine then they should start interfering in the Ukraine... they should start investing in rebel regions of the Ukraine and interfere as much as they can by funding the rebellion...

    The US and the west have funded a coup and are now funding an illegal government in Kiev, yet no sanctions on them?

    If the west protests then Rosneft can say we will stop interfering when you stop interfering and when you remove the sanctions.


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Wed Mar 29, 2017 11:28 am

    GarryB wrote:Clearly if Rosneft is going to be sanctioned by Europe for interfering in the Ukraine then they should start interfering in the Ukraine... they should start investing in rebel regions of the Ukraine and interfere as much as they can by funding the rebellion...

    The US and the west have funded a coup and are now funding an illegal government in Kiev, yet no sanctions on them?

    If the west protests then Rosneft can say we will stop interfering when you stop interfering and when you remove the sanctions.

    The Rule of Law applies to other countries not to West. As they say "Do as I Tell You , Dont Do As I Do"

    What they show is EU court decision is politically aligned and cannot be relied for any impartial decision , They would do what EU politician would tell them to do.

    I wasnt expecting EU court to any way say the sanctions are illegal so it comes as no surprise.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:09 pm

    Russians in General and Russian Government is obsessed with European Market and all things European.

    They invest a lot of time and effort to please the Europeans even if that ends up with nothing in the end.

    Look at the kind of investment and effort put by Russians on Nord Stream-2 , There is little chance Nord Stream-2 will pass the test.

    Barring few countries most EU are extremely hostile to Russia so putting such time money and effort is all but in Vain.

    Russia should put similar effort in wooing China , India and Asia in General ......That is where the Growth and Demand is for next 30 years. This is market Russia will gain the most , they are friendly to Russia as well and see Russia as stabilising force.

    Hope the Morons in Chief lead by Putin realise that putting effort to improve relations with US and EU is a wasted effort , Rather put the same time money and effort in Asian countries and bear good fruit there.
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:18 am

    Austin wrote:Russians in General and Russian Government is obsessed with European Market and all things European.

    They invest a lot of time and effort to please the Europeans even if that ends up with nothing in the end.

    Look at the kind of investment and effort put by Russians on Nord Stream-2  , There is little chance Nord Stream-2 will pass the test.

    Barring few countries most EU are extremely hostile to Russia so putting such time money and effort is all but in Vain.

    Russia should put similar effort in wooing China , India and Asia in General ......That is where the Growth and Demand is for next 30 years. This is market Russia will gain the most , they are friendly to Russia as well and see Russia as stabilising force.

    Hope the Morons in Chief lead by Putin realise that putting effort to improve relations with US and EU is a wasted effort  , Rather put the same time money and effort in Asian countries and bear good fruit there.

    I agree 100%. Europe is an anti-Russian toilet that Russia should dump ASAP. The world is a bigger place than the EU and all the
    other NATO hyenas combined.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Thu Mar 30, 2017 5:37 am

    Russia’s offshore energy projects in the Arctic

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/938067

    Reserves and production

    According to the Russian Energy Ministry, Russia’s recoverable oil and gas reserves in the Arctic currently stand at 260 billion tonnes of equivalent fuel, or 60% of Russia’s recoverable hydrocarbon reserves.
    In 2015 the science doyen of the Oil and Gas Geology and Geophysics Institute under the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Aleksey Kontorovich, estimated Russia’s oil and gas reserves in the Arctic at 100 billion tonnes.

    In 2016, the Arctic produced nearly 90 million tonnes of oil (17% percent of Russia’s overall production) and nearly 500 billion cubic meters of oil and gas (80%). At the moment nearly all hydrocarbon reserves are extracted on the mainland. Of the total 350 oil fields there 60 are active. Nineteen oil and gas fields have been explored in Russia’s sector of the Arctic in the Barents and Kara seas. Commercial production is underway only at one of them - Prirazlomnoye. Exploration work is in progress at more than 40 offshore fields in the Barents and Kara seas and the Eastern Arctic.Investment into offshore oil and exploration in Russia in 2016 totaled 71.4 billion.

    Novak reveals huge Russia's hydrocarbon reserve


    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/Novak-reveals-huge-Russia-s-hydrocarbon-reserve.html
    Mar 27 - 12:05 pm

    Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the Arctic is a future of Russia's oil and gas production.

    "The Arctic shelf is a huge hydrocarbon reserve that possesses billions of tons of oil and tens of trillion cubic meters of gas," Sputnik cited the minister as saying.


    Novak said that Russia intends to increase its oil extraction and exploration on the Arctic shelf if the oil prices on the international market grow.

    According to him, the total value of energy resources concentrated in Russia's Arctic region exceeds $30 trillion.
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Mar 30, 2017 6:29 am

    I wonder if Rosneft will now start purchasing equipment from Gazprom/Uralvagonzavod and others (even themselves) for all their extraction equipment as well further fund Russian domestic development? It would be heavily in their best interest. As well, jump right in to foreign countries for extraction opportunities, ownership of pumps and processing facilities.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:58 pm

    Gazprom's Medvedev channels Mao in quest to sell gas to China
    By Elena Mazneva on 3/3/2017

    http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/3/3/gazproms-medvedev-channels-mao-in-quest-to-sell-gas-to-china

    HONG KONG (Bloomberg) – Gazprom deputy head Alexander Medvedev is taking solace in old sayings by the founding father of the People’s Republic of China as the natural gas giant pushes ahead with a plan to become its biggest supplier.

    “Do you know this Chinese saying “Hard work for three years, happiness for 10,000?” Medvedev said in an interview, referring to a loosely translated version of a Mao Zedong slogan. “We are in constant contact with our Chinese colleagues at all levels, corporate and governmental.”

    The Moscow-based gas exporter sees a chance this year for a new supply deal, which would be the first since a debut contract in 2014 before gas talks between the nations stalled. Gazprom’s plan to deliver 100 billion cu m of Russian fuel per year “still remains our target,” Medvedev said in the interview in Hong Kong on Thursday, where Gazprom was holding its annual Investor Day.

    Producers from Russia to Australia have been betting on huge sales to the world’s biggest energy user as it seeks to shift from coal to the cleaner burning fuel in order to tackle pollution. Talks on new deals have slowed as China is reshaping its gas market, aiming to reduce dependence on imports. The government also introduced a lower range for the share of its energy it expects to be met by gas earlier this year.

    Russia signed its first contract to ship gas to China from the untapped East Siberian fields under a $400 billion deal in 2014 as relations with the U.S. and the European Union soured over the conflict in Ukraine. Gazprom had planned to follow the deal with another 30-year agreement for fuel from West Siberia in 2015 before finally settling on a memorandum of understanding for a third pipeline from Russia’s Sakhalin region off the Pacific coast.


    Difficult Challenge

    The three pipeline routes plus supplies of liquefied natural gas will be enough to meet the 100-billion-cu-m target, Medvedev said, without specifying the timing. The first pipeline is scheduled to open in 2019 at the earliest.

    “Gazprom needs to be more realistic on gas pricing negotiations ahead” to win more supplies to China, said Gordon Kwan, head of Asia oil and gas research at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. While the country is putting more emphasis on cleaner fuels, “the challenge is difficult because coal is still very cheap.”


    The government of President Xi Jinping cut wholesale gas prices twice in 2015 in an attempt to switch users from coal. No further cuts from the state have followed since then, and Gazprom doesn’t see them this year either as domestic prices are already “very low” for gas sellers, Medvedev said.

    China expects its domestic gas output to rise about 60% to 220 billion cu m by 2020 from last year. In December, the government proposed a consumption target of 350 billion to 380 billion cu m by the same year.

    China’s gas use can reach 400 billion cu m by 2025 if its plans on replacing coal with cleaner fuel are fulfilled, Medvedev said. The figure will be at least 300 billion cu m even under the most conservative scenario. “We won’t see less than that for sure,” he said.

    Russian gas price will be more competitive than LNG from Australia for China because of lower production costs, Medvedev said, declining to comment on terms the company has in its debut agreement with China.


    Russia’s plans for China


    Power of Siberia pipeline from East Siberia will have capacity of 38 billion cu m a year with a possible expansion further West Siberian route capacity seen at 30 billion cu m Pipeline supplies from Russia’s Far East seen at 8 billion cu m, Medvedev said

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:59 pm

    100 bcm of Gas Supplies for China is a good target to achieve , if they manage to do that then gas supplies to China will exceed Gazprom supplies to Europe

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:43 pm

    Isnt $30 trillion worth of Russian Energy resources at Arctic is huge amount of Energy and Money for Russia ?


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sat Apr 01, 2017 7:00 am

    Net capital outflow from Russia amounted to $ 19.2 billion in 2016 Interfax

    Central Bank revised the capital outflow figures for 2016 in the direction of its increase - to $ 19.2 billion from the previous estimate of $ 15.4 billion, according to the materials on the website of the Bank of Russia.

    Thus, the net outflow of capital in the last year has decreased three times compared to an outflow of 2015 ($ 57.5 billion).

    The decline in net capital outflow was the result of much less intensive reduction of external liabilities, the Central Bank said in a commentary.
    According to the Central Bank net outflow of capital will slow to $ 12 billion in 2017 and to remain close to this level in 2018-2019.
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Sat Apr 01, 2017 2:10 pm

    Austin wrote:Net capital outflow from Russia amounted to $ 19.2 billion in 2016 Interfax

    Central Bank revised the capital outflow figures for 2016 in the direction of its increase - to $ 19.2 billion from the previous estimate of $ 15.4 billion, according to the materials on the website of the Bank of Russia.

    Thus, the net outflow of capital in the last year has decreased three times compared to an outflow of 2015 ($ 57.5 billion).

    The decline in net capital outflow was the result of much less intensive reduction of external liabilities, the Central Bank said in a commentary.
    According to the Central Bank net outflow of capital will slow to $ 12 billion in 2017 and to remain close to this level in 2018-2019.

    As usual, reporting of a meaningless number without context. What fraction of the 19.2 was debt repayment by both the Russian government
    and private sector entities? I bet most of it was. All the flighty portfolio capital ran off in 2014-15.
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Sat Apr 01, 2017 2:11 pm

    Austin wrote:Isnt $30 trillion worth of Russian Energy resources at Arctic is huge amount of Energy and Money for Russia ?



    No sh*t. That is why NATO wants it and is prepared to go to war to get it.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:05 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Austin wrote:Isnt $30 trillion worth of Russian Energy resources at Arctic is huge amount of Energy and Money for Russia ?



    No sh*t.   That is why NATO wants it and is prepared to go to war to get it.

    Madeline Halfbright one famously said quoting Arctic that the resources is so vast that it should belong to the entire world not just Russia !

    One way is to make India and China partners in Arctic exploration make sure Western Companies dont get any stake there , The energy needs of China India and Asia is bound to grow in the next 30-35 years as per EIA.




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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Sun Apr 02, 2017 5:23 pm

    How valid is authors argument that China and Russia sees world differently ?

    China-Russia relationship key to the emerging world order

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/chinarussia-relationship-key-to-the-emerging-world-order/news-story/6a00a38957e714120d0595c4a8c87051
    [quote]
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Apr 02, 2017 5:38 pm

    Take whatever is said about Russia, China, Indonesia from Australian media, with a grain of salt.

    Australia is US 2: death island.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:19 pm

    Gold Bugs: Why Russia is Stacking Bullion Bricks Like There's No Tomorrow

    https://sputniknews.com/russia/201704011052199028-russian-gold-purchases-analysis/

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Austin on Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:44 pm

    James Rickards-Trump Didn’t Get a Honeymoon-He Got a Burning Bed

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  George1 on Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:46 pm

    Russian Central Bank Chief: Economic growth rates to stabilize at 1.5-2%

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/939449


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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:14 am

    George1 wrote:Russian Central Bank Chief: Economic growth rates to stabilize at 1.5-2%

    More:
    http://tass.com/economy/939449

    So her target is the fake 2% CPI of the US that is the result of manipulations such as hedonics adjustments and
    various schemes to hide housing price increases. The actual US CPI is closer to 6%. This proves that Nabiullina is a fraud herself.
    Her monetarist crew at the CBR will be sabotaging the Russian economy with over 10% interest rates when the CPI has
    already stabilized around 6%. The result of this policy will be to reduce the GDP growth and create financial instability.
    As I posted already, for small businesses the borrowing costs translate into 30% price increases for the consumer. So
    the CBR and this witch will be fighting the inflation they are creating themselves.

    Putin needs to get a clue, ASAP.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Svyatoslavich on Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:24 am

    To defend the Russian Central bank, they are doing the correct thing by stocking huge amounts of gold and (slowly but surely) getting rid of dollar and euro bonds. In the long run, this is way more important than interest rates, and will allow Russia not only to survive the terrible crash that is about to come, but also to become one of the strongest financial centers in the world. Perhaps Putin is more focused on getting them doing the right thing on this, which is more important.
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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  kvs on Thu Apr 06, 2017 5:11 am

    Svyatoslavich wrote:To defend the Russian Central bank, they are doing the correct thing by stocking huge amounts of gold and (slowly but surely) getting rid of dollar and euro bonds. In the long run, this is way more important than interest rates, and will allow Russia not only to survive the terrible crash that is about to come, but also to become one of the strongest financial centers in the world. Perhaps Putin is more focused on getting them doing the right thing on this, which is more important.

    What!? Interest rates affect the daily operation of the whole economy. The gold is only relevant during financial crises as
    a psychological tool. Gold does not generate GDP (give me an example where it does, Russia operates on fiat as do all modern
    economies because money is an abstraction not tied to some horde of treasure but to the volume of the GDP). Loan shark rates kill
    the GDP. Russia does not spend most of its time in financial crises so by definition the gold is secondary overall and even irrelevant to
    GDP growth.

    People need to do some research instead of using their gut feelings. As a consumer you may not need any loans, but this
    has exactly nothing to do with business operations. Companies cannot form and cannot function without loans. And
    business formation and dissolution is continuous. Russian companies do not have the luxury of bypassing the criminal actions
    of the CBR since they cannot raise venture capital on the stock market or from specialized funds.

    Putin is clearly not on the ball and his skills at power politics obviously do not translate to economics. He is undermining his
    own legacy of re-stabilizing Russia and putting it on the path to prosperity. Looks like it was lucky conjunction of events that
    did the job and not Putin's informed policy.

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    Re: Russian Economy General News: #8

    Post  Svyatoslavich on Fri Apr 07, 2017 2:37 am

    I agree with you, but if Putin and others in Russia and China think that a collapse of the dollar-denominated global economy is imminent, and that it will be the biggest crash ever since 1929 (or perhaps worse), than there is no higher priority than to be prepared to survive and (ideally) overcome it in a better position.

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